2015 Projection Evaluation

Summary

Batting

System PA wOBA SO BB HR R RBI SB BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF wOBA ERA SO BB HR W L SV HLD BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Arismendy Alcántara 536 32 504.4
2 Javier Báez 551 80 470.8
3 Desmond Jennings 573 108 464.8
4 Oswaldo Arcia 504 65 438.8
5 Gorkys Hernández 421 5 416.0
6 Emmanuel Burriss 417 5 412.0
7 Ryan Rua 488 86 401.6
8 Michael Saunders 436 36 400.4
9 Nick Franklin 506 109 396.9
10 Devin Mesoraco 435 51 384.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kris Bryant 100 650 550.0
2 Odúbel Herrera 100 537 437.0
3 Anthony Gose 100 535 435.0
4 Desmond Jennings 531 108 423.0
5 Addison Russell 100 523 423.0
6 Allen Craig 506 88 418.0
7 Devin Mesoraco 461 51 410.0
8 Alex Rodriguez 211 620 409.0
9 Hunter Pence 617 223 394.0
10 Robbie Grossman 448 54 394.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Duffy 100 612 512.5
2 Addison Russell 33 523 489.8
3 Billy Burns 101 555 454.0
4 Desmond Jennings 555 108 446.6
5 Carlos Correa 1 432 431.0
6 Devin Mesoraco 469 51 418.0
7 Oswaldo Arcia 476 65 410.6
8 J.T. Realmuto 62 467 405.1
9 Arismendy Alcántara 428 32 395.8
10 Michael Saunders 431 36 394.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Arismendy Alcántara 645 32 613.0
2 Jorge Polanco 596 12 584.0
3 Javier Báez 650 80 570.0
4 Brandon Drury 625 59 566.0
5 Kyle Waldrop 563 1 562.0
6 Matt Duffy 567 9 558.0
7 Michael Choice 559 1 558.0
8 Christian Walker 569 12 557.0
9 Sócrates Brito 585 34 551.0
10 Robbie Grossman 604 54 550.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Bryant 100 504 650 550.0 146.2 403.8
2 Anthony Gose 100 479 535 435.0 55.6 379.4
3 Odúbel Herrera 100 441 537 437.0 95.8 341.2
4 Jung Ho Kang 100 437 467 367.0 30.1 336.9
5 Yasmany Tomás 100 411 426 326.0 14.6 311.4
6 Mookie Betts 318 618 654 336.0 36.5 299.5
7 Joc Pederson 227 516 585 358.0 69.5 288.5
8 Francisco Lindor 100 354 438 338.0 84.4 253.6
9 Mark Canha 100 352 485 385.0 132.8 252.2
10 Johnny Giavotella 227 468 502 275.0 33.9 241.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Preston Tucker 1 263 323 322.0 60.0 262.0
2 Ben Paulsen 20 277 354 334.1 76.6 257.6
3 Clint Robinson 1 257 352 351.0 95.0 256.0
4 Chris Colabello 1 256 360 359.0 103.5 255.5
5 Kyle Schwarber 1 296 273 272.0 23.0 249.0
6 Gio Urshela 40 291 288 248.2 2.9 245.3
7 Stephen Piscotty 1 274 256 255.0 18.0 237.0
8 Paulo Orlando 26 251 251 224.5 0.2 224.2
9 Travis Shaw 1 276 248 247.0 27.5 219.5
10 Yolmer Sánchez 152 367 420 268.5 53.2 215.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brandon Drury 625 329 59 566.0 270.4 295.6
2 Kyle Schwarber 591 296 273 318.0 23.0 295.0
3 Sócrates Brito 585 293 34 551.0 259.0 292.0
4 Jorge Polanco 596 305 12 584.0 292.7 291.3
5 Trayce Thompson 594 304 135 459.0 168.6 290.4
6 Ketel Marte 575 288 247 328.0 41.0 287.0
7 Mason Williams 569 285 22 547.0 263.0 284.0
8 Mikie Mahtook 568 284 115 453.0 169.5 283.5
9 Matt Duffy 567 284 9 558.0 275.0 283.0
10 Scott Schebler 567 284 40 527.0 244.0 283.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Logan Forsythe 0.3507
0.2845
(36.3)
0.2917
(36.3)
0.2844
(35.0)
0.2847
(37.9)
Bryce Harper 0.4663
0.3671
(60.2)
0.3439
(80.2)
0.3653
(60.0)
0.3690
(60.8)
Lorenzo Cain 0.3624
0.3042
(30.9)
0.3095
(32.0)
0.3003
(31.8)
0.3081
(30.2)
Victor Martinez 0.2928
0.3659
(38.9)
0.3690
(36.9)
0.3717
(42.9)
0.3601
(34.7)
Joey Votto 0.4325
0.3844
(28.5)
0.3876
(31.3)
0.3806
(29.6)
0.3883
(27.7)
Nelson Cruz 0.4000
0.3297
(41.4)
0.3499
(32.9)
0.3291
(40.3)
0.3303
(42.8)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.2756 0.3666 36.2
2 Troy Tulowitzki 0.3962 0.3380 34.9
3 Wilson Ramos 0.3248 0.2663 33.1
4 Adam LaRoche 0.3415 0.2831 31.7
5 Pablo Sandoval 0.3429 0.2880 31.3
6 Alex Rodriguez 0.3064 0.3636 31.1
7 Michael Conforto 0.1936 0.3593 30.8
8 Omar Infante 0.2939 0.2365 29.4
9 Joe Panik 0.2863 0.3601 28.8
10 Josh Donaldson 0.3495 0.3965 28.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Manny Machado 0.3166 0.3700 38.2
2 Mike Moustakas 0.2895 0.3515 38.1
3 Josh Donaldson 0.3475 0.3965 34.9
4 Nolan Arenado 0.3254 0.3773 34.6
5 Kris Bryant 0.3185 0.3708 34.0
6 René Rivera 0.3136 0.2118 32.4
7 Kendrys Morales 0.3158 0.3659 32.0
8 Paul Goldschmidt 0.3834 0.4282 31.2
9 Chris Colabello 0.2948 0.3809 31.0
10 David Peralta 0.3213 0.3810 30.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.2556 0.3666 43.9
2 AJ Pollock 0.3041 0.3708 38.6
3 Pablo Sandoval 0.3489 0.2880 35.5
4 Wilson Ramos 0.3242 0.2663 33.9
5 Alex Rodriguez 0.3007 0.3636 33.2
6 Troy Tulowitzki 0.3899 0.3380 32.7
7 Omar Infante 0.2981 0.2365 32.3
8 Odúbel Herrera 0.2619 0.3302 31.7
9 Adam LaRoche 0.3379 0.2831 31.1
10 Francisco Lindor 0.2683 0.3471 30.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Troy Tulowitzki 0.4025 0.3380 36.8
2 Chris Owings 0.3099 0.2538 33.4
3 Adam LaRoche 0.3452 0.2831 32.2
4 Wilson Ramos 0.3254 0.2663 32.0
5 Josh Donaldson 0.3484 0.3965 31.1
6 Alex Rodriguez 0.3122 0.3636 29.2
7 Carlos Correa 0.2956 0.3666 28.8
8 Andrés Blanco 0.2545 0.3674 28.3
9 Joe Panik 0.2907 0.3601 28.1
10 Mike Moustakas 0.3017 0.3515 27.9

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Bryant 0.3185 0.3585 0.3708 34.0 3.3 30.7
2 Xander Bogaerts 0.2940 0.3183 0.3369 28.1 7.5 20.6
3 Bryce Harper 0.3439 0.3671 0.4663 80.2 60.2 19.9
4 Eric Hosmer 0.3182 0.3389 0.3570 25.9 7.3 18.6
5 Anthony Rizzo 0.3532 0.3689 0.3878 24.3 8.2 16.1
6 Nick Hundley 0.2799 0.3112 0.3479 26.5 11.5 15.0
7 Mike Moustakas 0.2895 0.3060 0.3515 38.1 23.5 14.6
8 Michael Cuddyer 0.3677 0.3248 0.3064 25.0 10.4 14.6
9 Nolan Arenado 0.3254 0.3389 0.3773 34.6 20.8 13.8
10 Manny Machado 0.3166 0.3273 0.3700 38.2 25.4 12.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 AJ Pollock 0.3041 0.3232 0.3708 38.6 27.2 11.4
2 Lucas Duda 0.3283 0.3445 0.3629 13.9 6.3 7.7
3 Carlos Correa 0.2556 0.2756 0.3666 43.9 36.2 7.7
4 Prince Fielder 0.3679 0.3588 0.3670 7.1 0.7 6.4
5 Odúbel Herrera 0.2619 0.2746 0.3302 31.7 26.0 5.6
6 Brett Lawrie 0.3238 0.3171 0.3047 17.2 11.8 5.5
7 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2794 0.2896 0.3348 30.0 24.9 5.1
8 Kyle Schwarber 0.2735 0.2938 0.3653 22.5 17.6 4.9
9 Mike Trout 0.3954 0.4048 0.4204 10.6 5.8 4.9
10 Eugenio Suárez 0.2780 0.2913 0.3251 15.0 10.6 4.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marlon Byrd 0.3411 0.3215 0.3182 14.8 5.7 9.2
2 Prince Fielder 0.3497 0.3588 0.3670 9.0 0.7 8.2
3 Mookie Betts 0.3255 0.3313 0.3503 13.4 7.7 5.7
4 Chris Owings 0.3099 0.2976 0.2538 33.4 28.2 5.2
5 Dexter Fowler 0.3412 0.3309 0.3323 9.2 4.0 5.2
6 Jay Bruce 0.3422 0.3320 0.3135 21.5 16.7 4.8
7 Mark Trumbo 0.3460 0.3351 0.3279 12.2 7.8 4.4
8 Mike Moustakas 0.3017 0.3060 0.3515 27.9 23.5 4.4
9 Jose Iglesias 0.2671 0.2735 0.3138 19.2 15.1 4.2
10 Tyler Flowers 0.3046 0.2902 0.2867 8.0 3.9 4.2

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Daniel Murphy 0.0706
0.1331
(36.0)
0.1443
(42.2)
0.1371
(39.6)
0.1291
(32.4)
Xander Bogaerts 0.1544
0.2103
(39.5)
0.2250
(49.2)
0.2064
(38.7)
0.2142
(40.3)
Brett Lawrie 0.2392
0.1612
(44.3)
0.1701
(38.8)
0.1557
(45.9)
0.1667
(42.6)
Josh Reddick 0.1117
0.1912
(48.9)
0.1933
(50.2)
0.1847
(46.7)
0.1976
(51.1)
Matt Carpenter 0.2271
0.1569
(43.7)
0.1603
(41.3)
0.1581
(41.0)
0.1556
(46.3)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Stephen Drew 0.2505 0.1659 38.1
2 Chris Owings 0.1875 0.2609 38.0
3 Randal Grichuk 0.2112 0.3143 34.5
4 George Springer 0.3111 0.2417 33.3
5 A.J. Pierzynski 0.1563 0.0849 33.1
6 Lorenzo Cain 0.2096 0.1623 31.3
7 Jorge Soler 0.2176 0.2995 31.3
8 Starling Marte 0.2389 0.1943 31.1
9 Kole Calhoun 0.1894 0.2391 31.0
10 Anthony Rizzo 0.1894 0.1498 30.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kris Bryant 0.1987 0.3062 66.8
2 Kevin Pillar 0.2202 0.1354 56.2
3 Steven Souza Jr. 0.2074 0.3380 53.7
4 Miguel Sanó 0.1987 0.3552 50.9
5 Joc Pederson 0.2115 0.2906 43.6
6 Addison Russell 0.1987 0.2849 42.7
7 Jose Iglesias 0.1803 0.0969 40.0
8 Michael A. Taylor 0.2281 0.3092 39.1
9 Anthony Gose 0.1987 0.2710 36.2
10 Buster Posey 0.1363 0.0835 35.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Steven Souza Jr. 0.2343 0.3380 41.1
2 A.J. Pierzynski 0.1668 0.0849 38.9
3 Stephen Drew 0.2444 0.1659 36.7
4 Chris Owings 0.1878 0.2609 36.3
5 Lorenzo Cain 0.2135 0.1623 35.3
6 Randal Grichuk 0.2082 0.3143 34.6
7 Starling Marte 0.2389 0.1943 32.8
8 Jorge Soler 0.2119 0.2995 32.5
9 Addison Russell 0.2173 0.2849 31.6
10 Brandon Phillips 0.1517 0.1091 31.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jung Ho Kang 0.3048 0.2120 44.2
2 Chris Owings 0.1873 0.2609 39.6
3 Stephen Drew 0.2565 0.1659 39.6
4 George Springer 0.3245 0.2417 38.2
5 Anthony Rizzo 0.1997 0.1498 36.3
6 Aaron Hicks 0.2580 0.1692 35.3
7 Ian Desmond 0.2358 0.2917 34.7
8 Randal Grichuk 0.2142 0.3143 34.4
9 Nick Castellanos 0.1965 0.2555 34.0
10 Troy Tulowitzki 0.1488 0.2135 33.6

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Bryant 0.1987 0.3113 0.3062 66.8 6.3 60.6
2 Joc Pederson 0.2115 0.2775 0.2906 43.6 5.0 38.5
3 Miguel Sanó 0.1987 0.3113 0.3552 50.9 13.2 37.7
4 Michael A. Taylor 0.2281 0.3089 0.3092 39.1 2.1 36.9
5 Kevin Pillar 0.2202 0.1686 0.1354 56.2 23.7 32.5
6 Mookie Betts 0.1730 0.1278 0.1254 34.2 4.5 29.6
7 Johnny Giavotella 0.1762 0.1222 0.1175 31.8 4.6 27.2
8 Steven Souza Jr. 0.2074 0.2690 0.3380 53.7 27.5 26.2
9 Joey Gallo 0.1987 0.3863 0.4634 32.0 8.9 23.1
10 Anthony Gose 0.1987 0.2358 0.2710 36.2 16.4 19.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Steven Souza Jr. 0.2343 0.2690 0.3380 41.1 27.5 13.6
2 Miguel Sanó 0.2763 0.3113 0.3552 24.0 13.2 10.8
3 Joc Pederson 0.2583 0.2775 0.2906 14.7 5.0 9.6
4 Mark Trumbo 0.2584 0.2447 0.2422 12.7 3.8 8.9
5 Jake Marisnick 0.2180 0.2424 0.2823 21.2 13.1 8.1
6 Eddie Rosario 0.1872 0.2067 0.2489 25.9 17.9 8.0
7 Nick Markakis 0.1257 0.1174 0.1210 8.2 0.6 7.6
8 Avisaíl García 0.2098 0.2250 0.2346 10.6 3.1 7.5
9 Yangervis Solarte 0.1226 0.1129 0.0981 18.1 11.0 7.1
10 Jhonny Peralta 0.1929 0.1849 0.1734 17.1 10.2 6.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yasmany Tomás 0.1827 0.2191 0.2582 31.4 14.8 16.6
2 Jung Ho Kang 0.3048 0.2705 0.2120 44.2 29.4 14.8
3 Michael A. Taylor 0.3321 0.3089 0.3092 12.6 2.1 10.5
4 Lucas Duda 0.2117 0.2278 0.2491 19.7 9.3 10.4
5 Kris Bryant 0.3285 0.3113 0.3062 15.7 6.3 9.5
6 José Abreu 0.1856 0.1969 0.2096 14.8 5.5 9.3
7 Mark Canha 0.2586 0.2400 0.1979 30.3 22.6 7.8
8 Torii Hunter 0.1661 0.1758 0.1852 9.8 2.8 7.0
9 Ian Desmond 0.2358 0.2440 0.2917 34.7 27.7 7.0
10 Didi Gregorius 0.1763 0.1615 0.1471 17.9 11.0 7.0

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alex Rodriguez 0.1355
0.0937
(24.2)
0.0948
(25.7)
0.0891
(26.9)
0.0983
(21.5)
Troy Tulowitzki 0.0712
0.1083
(21.3)
0.1101
(20.4)
0.1094
(22.0)
0.1072
(20.6)
Ryan Goins 0.0911
0.0447
(18.7)
0.0481
(18.7)
0.0445
(18.7)
0.0448
(18.7)
Joc Pederson 0.1573
0.1067
(27.9)
0.1013
(33.2)
0.1035
(29.8)
0.1099
(26.2)
Bryce Harper 0.1896
0.1118
(49.1)
0.0994
(59.5)
0.1109
(49.6)
0.1127
(48.6)
Stephen Vogt 0.1096
0.0631
(22.3)
0.0646
(23.4)
0.0638
(21.9)
0.0625
(22.8)
Paul Goldschmidt 0.1698
0.1298
(25.8)
0.1206
(34.7)
0.1285
(26.7)
0.1311
(25.1)
Derek Norris 0.0628
0.1152
(30.7)
0.1087
(25.1)
0.1089
(27.3)
0.1214
(34.1)
Miguel Sanó 0.1582
0.0779
(26.0)
0.0782
(27.1)
0.0760
(26.6)
0.0799
(25.4)
Manny Machado 0.0982
0.0539
(29.6)
0.0517
(33.7)
0.0584
(26.2)
0.0494
(33.0)
Ryan Howard 0.0537
0.0929
(21.1)
0.0901
(17.9)
0.0945
(22.0)
0.0913
(20.2)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1507
0.1059
(21.5)
0.1013
(25.6)
0.1067
(21.0)
0.1050
(22.0)
Jean Segura 0.0223
0.0502
(17.9)
0.0542
(18.2)
0.0511
(18.6)
0.0492
(17.2)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.0956 0.0584 26.7
2 Prince Fielder 0.1200 0.0924 21.1
3 Hanley Ramirez 0.0943 0.0488 20.7
4 Matt Kemp 0.0888 0.0602 20.4
5 David Peralta 0.0447 0.0851 19.4
6 Joey Votto 0.1777 0.2058 17.6
7 Xander Bogaerts 0.0730 0.0489 17.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joey Votto 0.1679 0.2058 26.8
2 Kris Bryant 0.0782 0.1185 26.7
3 Eddie Rosario 0.0782 0.0316 21.7
4 Andrew McCutchen 0.1134 0.1431 20.9
5 José Bautista 0.1347 0.1652 20.8
6 Chris Davis 0.0962 0.1254 20.0
7 Yangervis Solarte 0.0936 0.0595 19.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.0949 0.0584 26.3
2 Joey Votto 0.1695 0.2058 23.2
3 Prince Fielder 0.1217 0.0924 22.4
4 Matt Kemp 0.0907 0.0602 21.7
5 Hanley Ramirez 0.0956 0.0488 21.4
6 Xander Bogaerts 0.0735 0.0489 18.0
7 Chase Headley 0.1041 0.0794 17.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.0962 0.0584 27.0
2 David Peralta 0.0415 0.0851 21.2
3 Hanley Ramirez 0.0929 0.0488 20.1
4 Prince Fielder 0.1182 0.0924 19.7
5 Billy Burns 0.0790 0.0468 19.3
6 Matt Kemp 0.0870 0.0602 19.0
7 Marcus Semien 0.0976 0.0699 18.2

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Eddie Rosario 0.0782 0.0427 0.0316 21.7 6.6 15.1
2 James McCann 0.0758 0.0380 0.0376 15.9 1.3 14.6
3 Yasmany Tomás 0.0782 0.0471 0.0399 16.0 4.3 11.7
4 Odúbel Herrera 0.0782 0.0535 0.0521 13.6 2.2 11.3
5 Kris Bryant 0.0782 0.0915 0.1185 26.7 15.7 11.0
6 José Bautista 0.1347 0.1471 0.1652 20.8 10.2 10.6
7 Bryce Harper 0.0994 0.1118 0.1896 59.5 49.1 10.5
8 Jace Peterson 0.0684 0.0813 0.0938 15.6 5.8 9.8
9 Yangervis Solarte 0.0936 0.0735 0.0595 19.0 9.6 9.4
10 Joey Votto 0.1679 0.1777 0.2058 26.8 17.6 9.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Joey Votto 0.1695 0.1777 0.2058 23.2 17.6 5.6
2 Carlos Correa 0.0568 0.0655 0.0926 14.2 10.5 3.7
3 Mike Trout 0.1250 0.1299 0.1349 4.8 1.5 3.3
4 Jace Peterson 0.0757 0.0813 0.0938 9.0 5.8 3.2
5 George Springer 0.0993 0.1065 0.1109 3.9 0.7 3.2
6 Alex Rodriguez 0.0891 0.0937 0.1355 26.9 24.2 2.8
7 Victor Martinez 0.0940 0.0885 0.0639 16.0 13.3 2.7
8 Kyle Schwarber 0.0642 0.0736 0.1319 17.7 15.2 2.5
9 Logan Forsythe 0.0789 0.0829 0.0894 4.7 2.3 2.4
10 José Bautista 0.1434 0.1471 0.1652 12.5 10.2 2.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adonis García 0.0782 0.0400 0.0253 11.0 3.5 7.5
2 Torii Hunter 0.0353 0.0432 0.0617 13.5 8.9 4.6
3 Dexter Fowler 0.1388 0.1326 0.1217 13.5 9.4 4.1
4 Matt Duffy 0.0729 0.0664 0.0490 16.2 12.4 3.8
5 Manny Machado 0.0494 0.0539 0.0982 33.0 29.6 3.4
6 Derek Norris 0.1214 0.1152 0.0628 34.1 30.7 3.3
7 Adam Eaton 0.0888 0.0844 0.0842 4.9 2.1 2.9
8 Marcus Semien 0.0976 0.0928 0.0699 18.2 15.5 2.7
9 Alex Guerrero 0.0664 0.0556 0.0304 8.9 6.4 2.4
10 Billy Burns 0.0790 0.0744 0.0468 19.3 16.9 2.4

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
David Freese 0.0255
0.0129
(5.9)
0.0119
(6.3)
0.0120
(6.2)
0.0138
(5.5)
Logan Forsythe 0.0228
0.0125
(6.2)
0.0127
(6.1)
0.0110
(7.1)
0.0140
(5.3)
Rougned Odor 0.0298
0.0122
(8.2)
0.0117
(8.4)
0.0110
(8.7)
0.0134
(7.6)
Lorenzo Cain 0.0199
0.0092
(6.3)
0.0081
(7.0)
0.0090
(6.4)
0.0094
(6.2)
Justin Turner 0.0296
0.0133
(7.1)
0.0105
(8.3)
0.0110
(8.0)
0.0157
(6.1)
Anthony Rizzo 0.0428
0.0142
(19.9)
0.0153
(19.1)
0.0130
(20.7)
0.0154
(19.2)
Brandon Guyer 0.0623
0.0254
(14.1)
0.0231
(15.0)
0.0210
(15.8)
0.0298
(12.5)
Brian McCann 0.0206
0.0096
(5.7)
0.0099
(5.6)
0.0090
(6.0)
0.0102
(5.5)
Jason Kipnis 0.0140
0.0054
(5.4)
0.0055
(5.4)
0.0060
(5.0)
0.0048
(5.9)
Kolten Wong 0.0245
0.0076
(10.2)
0.0092
(9.2)
0.0080
(9.9)
0.0072
(10.5)
Jung Ho Kang 0.0364
0.0115
(11.5)
0.0089
(12.7)
0.0070
(13.6)
0.0159
(9.5)
Khris Davis 0.0023
0.0174
(6.7)
0.0183
(7.1)
0.0160
(6.2)
0.0187
(7.3)
Alex Gordon 0.0332
0.0115
(9.0)
0.0119
(8.9)
0.0110
(9.2)
0.0121
(8.9)
Mike Moustakas 0.0212
0.0089
(7.4)
0.0079
(8.0)
0.0090
(7.3)
0.0088
(7.5)
Evan Gattis 0.0050
0.0150
(6.2)
0.0137
(5.4)
0.0130
(5.0)
0.0169
(7.3)
Brandon Crawford 0.0196
0.0063
(7.3)
0.0056
(7.8)
0.0070
(6.9)
0.0056
(7.8)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lucas Duda 0.0140 0.0253 6.1
2 Aramis Ramirez 0.0208 0.0097 5.8
3 Odúbel Herrera 0.0048 0.0149 5.3
4 Derek Dietrich 0.0283 0.0450 4.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aramis Ramirez 0.0204 0.0097 5.7
2 Adam Eaton 0.0119 0.0203 5.6
3 Lucas Duda 0.0149 0.0253 5.6
4 Didi Gregorius 0.0100 0.0190 5.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lucas Duda 0.0120 0.0253 7.2
2 José Abreu 0.0120 0.0225 6.8
3 Derek Dietrich 0.0240 0.0450 6.0
4 Jon Jay 0.0240 0.0449 5.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aramis Ramirez 0.0235 0.0097 7.2
2 Francisco Cervelli 0.0284 0.0157 6.6
3 Odúbel Herrera 0.0035 0.0149 6.0
4 Victor Martinez 0.0038 0.0144 5.1

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adam Eaton 0.0119 0.0182 0.0203 5.6 1.3 4.3
2 Johnny Giavotella 0.0132 0.0061 0.0040 4.7 1.2 3.6
3 Jose Iglesias 0.0205 0.0143 0.0132 3.4 0.6 2.8
4 Matt Duffy 0.0126 0.0080 0.0082 2.8 0.1 2.8
5 Mookie Betts 0.0094 0.0053 0.0031 4.3 1.6 2.7
6 Mark Canha 0.0089 0.0142 0.0165 3.6 1.0 2.5
7 Eddie Rosario 0.0089 0.0036 0.0000 4.3 1.8 2.5
8 Francisco Lindor 0.0089 0.0039 0.0023 3.0 0.8 2.2
9 C.J. Cron 0.0060 0.0137 0.0124 2.5 0.6 1.9
10 Josh Phegley 0.0041 0.0117 0.0123 2.0 0.1 1.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Abreu 0.0120 0.0155 0.0225 6.8 4.5 2.2
2 Adam Eaton 0.0150 0.0182 0.0203 3.5 1.3 2.2
3 Jung Ho Kang 0.0070 0.0115 0.0364 13.6 11.5 2.0
4 Brandon Guyer 0.0210 0.0254 0.0623 15.8 14.1 1.7
5 Starling Marte 0.0250 0.0273 0.0300 3.0 1.6 1.4
6 Derek Dietrich 0.0240 0.0283 0.0450 6.0 4.7 1.2
7 Melky Cabrera 0.0050 0.0033 0.0029 1.6 0.4 1.2
8 Sean Rodríguez 0.0140 0.0189 0.0250 2.6 1.4 1.1
9 George Springer 0.0130 0.0156 0.0177 2.0 0.9 1.1
10 Lucas Duda 0.0120 0.0140 0.0253 7.2 6.1 1.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Francisco Cervelli 0.0284 0.0227 0.0157 6.6 3.7 2.9
2 Kris Bryant 0.0197 0.0159 0.0138 3.9 1.5 2.5
3 Rusney Castillo 0.0206 0.0143 0.0035 5.0 3.2 1.8
4 Aramis Ramirez 0.0235 0.0208 0.0097 7.2 5.8 1.4
5 Mike Zunino 0.0244 0.0212 0.0130 4.5 3.3 1.2
6 Billy Burns 0.0135 0.0112 0.0108 1.5 0.4 1.2
7 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0268 0.0249 0.0230 2.6 1.4 1.2
8 Evan Gattis 0.0169 0.0150 0.0050 7.3 6.2 1.1
9 Martín Maldonado 0.0207 0.0164 0.0039 4.3 3.2 1.1
10 Danny Espinosa 0.0245 0.0217 0.0146 4.1 3.0 1.1

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alex Rodriguez 0.0857
0.0498
(20.0)
0.0493
(20.9)
0.0426
(24.4)
0.0570
(15.7)
Bryce Harper 0.1066
0.0649
(24.9)
0.0510
(34.6)
0.0616
(27.0)
0.0683
(22.9)
Manny Machado 0.0663
0.0380
(17.6)
0.0338
(21.2)
0.0388
(17.0)
0.0372
(18.4)
Justin Bour 0.0744
0.0359
(15.6)
0.0294
(18.9)
0.0384
(14.4)
0.0333
(16.8)
Kris Bryant 0.0712
0.0914
(15.5)
0.0398
(18.7)
0.0898
(14.4)
0.0932
(16.5)
J.D. Martinez 0.0903
0.0567
(19.7)
0.0489
(25.4)
0.0560
(20.1)
0.0574
(19.4)
Nelson Cruz 0.1030
0.0677
(20.8)
0.0700
(19.9)
0.0662
(21.7)
0.0692
(20.0)
Matt Carpenter 0.0656
0.0207
(27.4)
0.0223
(27.0)
0.0217
(26.7)
0.0197
(28.3)
Nolan Arenado 0.0812
0.0383
(26.2)
0.0354
(28.7)
0.0419
(23.7)
0.0346
(28.8)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.0192 0.0703 20.5
2 Brandon Moss 0.0896 0.0586 18.2
3 Chase Headley 0.0486 0.0245 17.8
4 Xander Bogaerts 0.0370 0.0135 17.8
5 Adam LaRoche 0.0723 0.0403 17.3
6 Franklin Gutierrez 0.0354 0.1271 16.7
7 José Abreu 0.0843 0.0633 16.4
8 George Springer 0.0888 0.0563 16.3
9 Chris Davis 0.1000 0.1270 15.7
10 Luis Valbuena 0.0407 0.0755 15.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joc Pederson 0.0325 0.0828 27.9
2 Miguel Sanó 0.0398 0.1111 23.0
3 Josh Donaldson 0.0509 0.0822 20.3
4 Chris Davis 0.0952 0.1270 19.5
5 Mike Trout 0.0676 0.0972 18.3
6 Delino DeShields 0.0398 0.0060 18.0
7 Mark Teixeira 0.0581 0.0994 17.8
8 Carlos González 0.0618 0.0935 17.6
9 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0883 0.1444 17.0
10 Khris Davis 0.0580 0.0989 16.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.0185 0.0703 20.8
2 Xander Bogaerts 0.0412 0.0135 20.5
3 Chris Davis 0.0944 0.1270 19.4
4 José Abreu 0.0875 0.0633 18.6
5 Franklin Gutierrez 0.0314 0.1271 17.4
6 Brandon Moss 0.0878 0.0586 17.3
7 Brandon Crawford 0.0215 0.0536 15.9
8 Luis Valbuena 0.0396 0.0755 15.9
9 Mike Trout 0.0708 0.0972 15.5
10 Mark Teixeira 0.0636 0.0994 14.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chase Headley 0.0559 0.0245 22.3
2 Adam LaRoche 0.0801 0.0403 20.9
3 Carlos Correa 0.0199 0.0703 20.3
4 George Springer 0.0970 0.0563 19.8
5 Brandon Moss 0.0915 0.0586 19.0
6 Delino DeShields 0.0398 0.0060 18.3
7 Franklin Gutierrez 0.0393 0.1271 16.0
8 Luis Valbuena 0.0418 0.0755 15.0
9 Xander Bogaerts 0.0329 0.0135 14.8
10 Brandon Crawford 0.0242 0.0536 14.6

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Joc Pederson 0.0325 0.0616 0.0828 27.9 10.3 17.6
2 Miguel Sanó 0.0398 0.0836 0.1111 23.0 8.0 15.0
3 Billy Burns 0.0336 0.0041 0.0113 13.8 2.0 11.8
4 Anthony Gose 0.0398 0.0183 0.0146 14.9 3.9 11.0
5 Jace Peterson 0.0305 0.0096 0.0144 11.2 0.7 10.5
6 Bryce Harper 0.0510 0.0649 0.1066 34.6 24.9 9.7
7 Francisco Cervelli 0.0354 0.0150 0.0193 9.5 0.3 9.2
8 Joey Gallo 0.0398 0.1167 0.1176 9.2 0.3 8.9
9 Delino DeShields 0.0398 0.0212 0.0060 18.0 9.3 8.7
10 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0619 0.0735 0.0778 9.2 0.5 8.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marlon Byrd 0.0483 0.0594 0.0628 5.9 0.1 5.8
2 David Ortiz 0.0610 0.0684 0.0837 11.7 7.2 4.5
3 Alex Rodriguez 0.0426 0.0498 0.0857 24.4 20.0 4.4
4 Chris Davis 0.0944 0.1000 0.1270 19.4 15.7 3.7
5 Matt Kemp 0.0557 0.0506 0.0503 5.9 2.5 3.4
6 Xander Bogaerts 0.0412 0.0370 0.0135 20.5 17.8 2.8
7 AJ Pollock 0.0226 0.0262 0.0378 7.8 5.4 2.4
8 Jorge Soler 0.0610 0.0556 0.0403 9.8 7.6 2.2
9 José Abreu 0.0875 0.0843 0.0633 18.6 16.4 2.2
10 Lucas Duda 0.0623 0.0664 0.0804 8.0 5.7 2.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Delino DeShields 0.0398 0.0212 0.0060 18.3 9.3 9.0
2 Marlon Byrd 0.0705 0.0594 0.0628 6.0 0.1 5.9
3 Chase Headley 0.0559 0.0486 0.0245 22.3 17.8 4.5
4 Adam LaRoche 0.0801 0.0723 0.0403 20.9 17.3 3.6
5 George Springer 0.0970 0.0888 0.0563 19.8 16.3 3.6
6 Eric Young Jr. 0.0398 0.0087 0.0000 4.1 1.2 2.9
7 Curtis Granderson 0.0638 0.0595 0.0600 4.9 2.1 2.7
8 Nolan Arenado 0.0346 0.0383 0.0812 28.8 26.2 2.6
9 Addison Russell 0.0438 0.0392 0.0395 4.0 1.7 2.2
10 Daniel Robertson 0.0398 0.0117 0.0000 3.4 1.2 2.2

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Bryce Harper 0.3693
0.3205
(29.0)
0.3154
(36.1)
0.3177
(28.2)
0.3233
(30.0)
Paul Goldschmidt 0.3811
0.3295
(32.7)
0.3396
(29.7)
0.3238
(33.8)
0.3353
(31.8)
Chris Colabello 0.4107
0.2965
(39.5)
0.2921
(43.2)
0.3028
(35.8)
0.2899
(43.5)
Nelson Cruz 0.3499
0.2818
(41.6)
0.2957
(36.4)
0.2816
(39.1)
0.2821
(44.4)
Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3785
0.3195
(35.6)
0.3210
(38.5)
0.3025
(44.0)
0.3364
(27.5)
Stephen Drew 0.1987
0.2678
(31.5)
0.2727
(31.1)
0.2709
(34.6)
0.2647
(28.3)
Miguel Sanó 0.3958
0.2852
(35.6)
0.2993
(32.8)
0.2829
(34.9)
0.2877
(36.2)
Xander Bogaerts 0.3699
0.3085
(37.2)
0.2951
(49.8)
0.3016
(39.1)
0.3155
(35.5)
Jason Kipnis 0.3529
0.2986
(31.9)
0.3040
(32.2)
0.2951
(31.6)
0.3021
(32.5)
Torii Hunter 0.2581
0.3194
(37.3)
0.3325
(41.4)
0.3291
(45.1)
0.3102
(29.5)
Albert Pujols 0.2170
0.2688
(37.2)
0.2706
(34.5)
0.2674
(39.0)
0.2701
(35.1)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.3089 0.3819 36.8
2 Jay Bruce 0.2975 0.2512 33.0
3 Billy Burns 0.2769 0.3387 31.8
4 Carlos González 0.3304 0.2835 31.3
5 Yunel Escobar 0.2897 0.3464 30.8
6 Randal Grichuk 0.2743 0.3655 30.3
7 Jayson Werth 0.3267 0.2531 29.5
8 Hanley Ramirez 0.3192 0.2571 28.6
9 David Peralta 0.3085 0.3681 28.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kris Bryant 0.2993 0.3776 51.8
2 Odúbel Herrera 0.2993 0.3819 45.1
3 Yunel Escobar 0.2778 0.3464 41.4
4 Jayson Werth 0.3388 0.2531 31.9
5 Nick Hundley 0.2766 0.3559 31.4
6 Jimmy Paredes 0.2952 0.3689 28.8
7 David Peralta 0.3139 0.3681 28.7
8 Nick Markakis 0.2975 0.3378 28.6
9 Ian Kinsler 0.2827 0.3234 28.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.2853 0.3819 47.2
2 Carlos González 0.3338 0.2835 35.8
3 Billy Burns 0.2681 0.3387 34.4
4 Hanley Ramirez 0.3259 0.2571 33.3
5 Randal Grichuk 0.2626 0.3655 33.0
6 Jayson Werth 0.3300 0.2531 32.3
7 Kris Bryant 0.3207 0.3776 31.4
8 Victor Martinez 0.3083 0.2526 31.2
9 David Peralta 0.2996 0.3681 31.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jay Bruce 0.3094 0.2512 37.8
2 Yunel Escobar 0.2847 0.3464 36.4
3 Joc Pederson 0.3121 0.2604 30.3
4 Billy Hamilton 0.3228 0.2572 29.8
5 Billy Burns 0.2861 0.3387 29.1
6 Logan Forsythe 0.2759 0.3230 28.9
7 Nick Markakis 0.2962 0.3378 28.4
8 Randal Grichuk 0.2861 0.3655 27.8
9 Miguel Cabrera 0.3296 0.3837 27.6

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Bryant 0.2993 0.3319 0.3776 51.8 26.8 25.0
2 Nick Hundley 0.2766 0.3101 0.3559 31.4 16.1 15.3
3 Xander Bogaerts 0.2951 0.3085 0.3699 49.8 37.2 12.6
4 Kolten Wong 0.2722 0.2859 0.2961 15.5 3.5 12.0
5 Alex Rodriguez 0.3037 0.2793 0.2784 14.8 3.4 11.5
6 Eric Hosmer 0.3045 0.3157 0.3354 21.6 10.2 11.4
7 Mike Moustakas 0.2534 0.2651 0.2913 24.1 13.3 10.8
8 Yunel Escobar 0.2778 0.2897 0.3464 41.4 30.8 10.5
9 Jake Lamb 0.2919 0.3127 0.3440 20.8 10.5 10.4
10 Gregory Polanco 0.2756 0.2856 0.3069 21.3 10.9 10.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.2853 0.3089 0.3819 47.2 36.8 10.5
2 Carlos Correa 0.2589 0.2830 0.2955 12.1 3.5 8.6
3 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3025 0.3195 0.3785 44.0 35.6 8.5
4 Alex Rodriguez 0.2883 0.2793 0.2784 11.4 3.4 8.1
5 AJ Pollock 0.2932 0.3090 0.3379 24.3 16.4 7.9
6 Torii Hunter 0.3291 0.3194 0.2581 45.1 37.3 7.8
7 David Ortiz 0.2954 0.2890 0.2642 24.4 18.0 6.4
8 César Hernández 0.2970 0.3146 0.3375 14.4 8.3 6.1
9 Ender Inciarte 0.2787 0.2933 0.3276 22.6 16.7 5.9
10 Pablo Sandoval 0.3120 0.3045 0.2692 25.9 20.1 5.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Joc Pederson 0.3121 0.2901 0.2604 30.3 20.0 10.3
2 Mookie Betts 0.2907 0.2986 0.3083 11.5 3.4 8.1
3 Prince Fielder 0.2879 0.2943 0.3235 24.6 17.1 7.5
4 Chris Owings 0.3247 0.3076 0.2997 13.8 6.8 7.0
5 Michael A. Taylor 0.3277 0.3107 0.3102 9.0 2.6 6.4
6 Billy Hamilton 0.3228 0.3045 0.2572 29.8 23.5 6.3
7 Neil Walker 0.2914 0.2969 0.3059 8.7 2.7 6.0
8 Chris Davis 0.2951 0.2997 0.3189 15.9 9.9 6.0
9 Carlos Beltrán 0.2736 0.2802 0.2974 12.6 6.7 5.9
10 José Abreu 0.3102 0.3143 0.3333 15.4 9.7 5.8

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Paul Goldschmidt 0.2788
0.2252
(36.2)
0.2296
(35.8)
0.2251
(34.7)
0.2254
(37.7)
Chris Colabello 0.3214
0.2186
(36.5)
0.2178
(38.1)
0.2283
(32.2)
0.2085
(41.0)
Jay Bruce 0.1579
0.2137
(37.2)
0.2012
(26.6)
0.2065
(34.0)
0.2210
(40.4)
Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3183
0.2578
(38.5)
0.2568
(41.6)
0.2430
(46.7)
0.2723
(30.6)
Xander Bogaerts 0.2955
0.2299
(41.9)
0.2235
(48.6)
0.2267
(42.5)
0.2330
(41.5)
Freddy Galvis 0.2630
0.1888
(43.9)
0.1884
(46.4)
0.1904
(41.5)
0.1871
(46.4)
José Bautista 0.1580
0.2005
(29.3)
0.2059
(30.4)
0.1974
(28.7)
0.2037
(29.8)
Brandon Phillips 0.2734
0.2239
(29.9)
0.2286
(29.4)
0.2232
(28.9)
0.2245
(31.1)
Todd Frazier 0.1736
0.2151
(29.1)
0.2237
(32.4)
0.2110
(27.9)
0.2191
(30.2)
Nelson Cruz 0.2898
0.2082
(52.5)
0.2151
(50.5)
0.2061
(52.4)
0.2103
(52.7)
Yunel Escobar 0.2898
0.2361
(30.8)
0.2222
(41.3)
0.2399
(27.2)
0.2323
(34.5)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jorge Soler 0.1956 0.2815 34.1
2 Francisco Cervelli 0.2320 0.2930 30.3
3 Prince Fielder 0.2244 0.2682 29.3
4 Aramis Ramirez 0.2268 0.1722 29.0
5 Omar Infante 0.2327 0.1733 27.7
6 Joey Votto 0.2392 0.2794 26.9
7 Ryan Howard 0.2250 0.1742 26.3
8 Billy Burns 0.2282 0.2769 26.2
9 Daniel Murphy 0.2369 0.1898 26.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.2242 0.2912 37.2
2 Kris Bryant 0.2242 0.2714 32.1
3 DJ LeMahieu 0.2538 0.3026 31.7
4 Billy Burns 0.2222 0.2769 31.6
5 Cameron Maybin 0.2140 0.2645 29.3
6 Torii Hunter 0.2563 0.2030 29.0
7 Jayson Werth 0.2568 0.1826 27.2
8 Aramis Ramirez 0.2269 0.1722 27.1
9 Ian Kinsler 0.2079 0.2454 26.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Torii Hunter 0.2554 0.2030 31.9
2 Billy Burns 0.2164 0.2769 31.5
3 Odúbel Herrera 0.2292 0.2912 31.3
4 Omar Infante 0.2376 0.1733 30.9
5 Francisco Cervelli 0.2328 0.2930 28.8
6 Brian Dozier 0.2032 0.1674 27.8
7 Ryan Zimmerman 0.2359 0.1686 27.7
8 Jorge Soler 0.2112 0.2815 26.9
9 David Ortiz 0.2126 0.1728 26.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jorge Soler 0.1798 0.2815 41.5
2 Prince Fielder 0.2211 0.2682 33.3
3 Aramis Ramirez 0.2364 0.1722 32.7
4 Francisco Cervelli 0.2313 0.2930 31.9
5 Joc Pederson 0.2452 0.1910 31.2
6 Miguel Cabrera 0.2405 0.2961 28.9
7 Joey Votto 0.2388 0.2794 28.8
8 Yasmany Tomás 0.2137 0.2778 27.7
9 Daniel Murphy 0.2412 0.1898 27.2

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.2242 0.2537 0.2912 37.2 19.3 17.8
2 Anthony Gose 0.2242 0.2473 0.2552 17.8 3.4 14.4
3 Kris Bryant 0.2242 0.2388 0.2714 32.1 20.2 11.9
4 Alex Rodriguez 0.2370 0.2159 0.2131 13.5 2.7 10.7
5 Yunel Escobar 0.2222 0.2361 0.2898 41.3 30.8 10.4
6 Nick Hundley 0.2128 0.2358 0.2633 20.6 10.1 10.4
7 Brad Miller 0.2071 0.2231 0.2262 10.6 0.8 9.8
8 Eric Hosmer 0.2302 0.2409 0.2558 18.6 8.9 9.7
9 Justin Bour 0.2485 0.2198 0.2238 10.0 1.1 8.9
10 Michael A. Taylor 0.2133 0.2270 0.2541 22.0 13.1 8.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.2292 0.2537 0.2912 31.3 19.3 12.0
2 Torii Hunter 0.2554 0.2420 0.2030 31.9 23.0 8.9
3 Mookie Betts 0.2317 0.2206 0.2095 17.0 8.2 8.8
4 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2430 0.2578 0.3183 46.7 38.5 8.1
5 Alex Rodriguez 0.2260 0.2159 0.2131 10.4 2.7 7.7
6 Eric Hosmer 0.2292 0.2409 0.2558 15.2 8.9 6.4
7 Carlos González 0.2448 0.2370 0.2139 21.1 15.0 6.1
8 Anthony Gose 0.2341 0.2473 0.2552 9.3 3.4 5.9
9 Hanley Ramirez 0.2386 0.2275 0.2159 11.4 5.7 5.7
10 Avisaíl García 0.2477 0.2594 0.2730 12.9 7.3 5.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Trout 0.2267 0.2382 0.2441 12.5 3.0 9.5
2 Joc Pederson 0.2452 0.2282 0.1910 31.2 22.7 8.5
3 Jorge Soler 0.1798 0.1956 0.2815 41.5 34.1 7.4
4 Dexter Fowler 0.2570 0.2453 0.2209 24.2 17.9 6.3
5 Michael Conforto 0.2242 0.1787 0.1875 6.9 1.4 5.5
6 Chris Owings 0.2423 0.2308 0.2149 14.6 9.6 5.0
7 Carlos Correa 0.2339 0.2200 0.2165 7.1 2.2 4.9
8 Jung Ho Kang 0.2145 0.2223 0.2597 21.5 16.8 4.8
9 Andrew McCutchen 0.2389 0.2433 0.2458 5.4 0.7 4.7
10 Brett Gardner 0.2232 0.2278 0.2390 10.9 6.4 4.6

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Lucas Duda 0.1068
0.0725
(17.6)
0.0692
(20.5)
0.0693
(18.9)
0.0756
(16.5)
Bryce Harper 0.1080
0.0666
(25.4)
0.0604
(30.7)
0.0698
(22.7)
0.0633
(28.3)
Hanley Ramirez 0.0381
0.0887
(22.9)
0.0841
(20.0)
0.0844
(21.4)
0.0931
(24.2)
Freddy Galvis 0.0304
0.0621
(20.6)
0.0580
(16.9)
0.0562
(17.7)
0.0680
(23.5)
Todd Frazier 0.0945
0.0655
(17.9)
0.0643
(20.1)
0.0656
(17.3)
0.0655
(18.7)
Evan Gattis 0.0471
0.0715
(16.3)
0.0729
(15.9)
0.0681
(14.8)
0.0749
(17.7)
Albert Pujols 0.0446
0.0705
(18.8)
0.0734
(19.4)
0.0646
(15.5)
0.0763
(21.8)
Matt Carpenter 0.1103
0.0776
(20.0)
0.0822
(18.3)
0.0769
(19.9)
0.0783
(20.3)
Brandon Crawford 0.0889
0.0581
(15.9)
0.0618
(14.9)
0.0556
(16.8)
0.0606
(15.1)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.0449 0.0824 18.8
2 Andrés Blanco 0.0545 0.1189 16.2
3 Randal Grichuk 0.0688 0.1168 15.9
4 Jason Kipnis 0.0669 0.0937 15.5
5 Michael Conforto 0.0274 0.1094 15.4
6 Jhonny Peralta 0.0775 0.0569 14.8
7 Alcides Escobar 0.0560 0.0364 14.7
8 Brandon Phillips 0.0579 0.0371 14.6
9 Yoenis Cespedes 0.0670 0.0909 14.5
10 Michael Brantley 0.0694 0.0962 14.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jhonny Peralta 0.0842 0.0569 17.8
2 Randal Grichuk 0.0667 0.1168 17.3
3 Jason Kipnis 0.0667 0.0937 17.0
4 Miguel Sanó 0.0674 0.1181 16.8
5 Logan Forsythe 0.0513 0.0789 16.7
6 Billy Hamilton 0.0584 0.0231 16.2
7 Francisco Cervelli 0.0785 0.0479 15.9
8 Kris Bryant 0.0674 0.0914 15.3
9 Gregory Polanco 0.0512 0.0751 15.2
10 Yoenis Cespedes 0.0687 0.0909 14.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Randal Grichuk 0.0631 0.1168 17.6
2 Odúbel Herrera 0.0474 0.0824 16.9
3 Logan Morrison 0.0697 0.0414 16.2
4 Brandon Phillips 0.0592 0.0371 15.9
5 Alcides Escobar 0.0562 0.0364 15.4
6 Michael Conforto 0.0271 0.1094 15.3
7 Andrés Blanco 0.0571 0.1189 15.2
8 Michael Brantley 0.0676 0.0962 15.0
9 Ichiro Suzuki 0.0436 0.0141 14.4
10 Miguel Sanó 0.0716 0.1181 14.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.0425 0.0824 20.7
2 Andrés Blanco 0.0518 0.1189 17.2
3 Jason Kipnis 0.0656 0.0937 17.1
4 Michael A. Taylor 0.0811 0.0495 16.8
5 Logan Forsythe 0.0517 0.0789 15.9
6 Jhonny Peralta 0.0803 0.0569 15.9
7 Yoenis Cespedes 0.0665 0.0909 15.6
8 Kole Calhoun 0.0723 0.0516 15.2
9 Billy Hamilton 0.0542 0.0231 14.7
10 Ryan Howard 0.0630 0.0935 14.7

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Bryant 0.0674 0.0838 0.0914 15.3 3.3 11.9
2 Billy Burns 0.0625 0.0398 0.0412 12.1 0.6 11.5
3 Gregory Polanco 0.0512 0.0581 0.0751 15.2 9.4 5.8
4 Francisco Cervelli 0.0785 0.0652 0.0479 15.9 10.1 5.8
5 George Springer 0.0563 0.0664 0.0709 6.3 0.9 5.5
6 Bryce Harper 0.0604 0.0666 0.1080 30.7 25.4 5.4
7 David Peralta 0.0547 0.0628 0.0754 10.4 5.2 5.2
8 Matt Kemp 0.0863 0.0764 0.0714 10.0 4.9 5.1
9 Danny Santana 0.0808 0.0613 0.0500 8.7 3.8 4.9
10 Nick Hundley 0.0596 0.0699 0.0747 5.7 0.9 4.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 AJ Pollock 0.0649 0.0751 0.0766 5.6 0.7 4.9
2 Dexter Fowler 0.0704 0.0647 0.0674 4.5 0.1 4.3
3 Carlos Correa 0.0446 0.0542 0.0756 11.9 8.2 3.7
4 Wilson Ramos 0.0563 0.0507 0.0436 8.2 4.9 3.3
5 Billy Burns 0.0446 0.0398 0.0412 3.8 0.6 3.2
6 Rusney Castillo 0.0689 0.0613 0.0463 7.5 5.1 2.5
7 Kris Bryant 0.0794 0.0838 0.0914 5.6 3.3 2.3
8 Avisaíl García 0.0504 0.0476 0.0422 7.1 4.8 2.3
9 Ben Paulsen 0.0674 0.0746 0.0841 4.7 2.5 2.2
10 David Peralta 0.0577 0.0628 0.0754 7.3 5.2 2.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 AJ Pollock 0.0856 0.0751 0.0766 7.0 0.7 6.3
2 Kyle Schwarber 0.0815 0.0621 0.0429 10.9 6.0 5.0
3 Jung Ho Kang 0.0900 0.0783 0.0779 6.3 1.4 4.9
4 Dexter Fowler 0.0588 0.0647 0.0674 5.0 0.1 4.8
5 Jorge Soler 0.1009 0.0883 0.0756 10.8 6.2 4.6
6 Brett Lawrie 0.0552 0.0605 0.0709 8.6 4.8 3.8
7 Khris Davis 0.0936 0.0844 0.0650 13.2 9.6 3.6
8 Jose Iglesias 0.0341 0.0403 0.0451 4.4 1.0 3.3
9 Nick Hundley 0.0628 0.0699 0.0747 4.1 0.9 3.2
10 Albert Pujols 0.0763 0.0705 0.0446 21.8 18.8 3.1

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Billy Burns 0.0206
0.0088
(6.3)
0.0069
(7.4)
0.0070
(6.8)
0.0107
(5.7)
Randal Grichuk 0.0355
0.0098
(8.8)
0.0111
(8.4)
0.0076
(9.3)
0.0120
(8.4)
Rajai Davis 0.0421
0.0063
(13.1)
0.0057
(13.3)
0.0065
(12.7)
0.0061
(13.5)
Michael Bourn 0.0061
0.0195
(6.7)
0.0208
(7.3)
0.0167
(5.8)
0.0223
(7.6)
Brett Gardner 0.0070
0.0178
(7.5)
0.0180
(7.5)
0.0148
(6.0)
0.0208
(8.8)
Delino DeShields 0.0300
0.0082
(10.5)
0.0076
(10.8)
0.0082
(10.1)
0.0076
(11.2)
Marcell Ozuna 0.0000
0.0126
(6.5)
0.0137
(7.0)
0.0108
(6.0)
0.0145
(7.0)
Charlie Blackmon 0.0182
0.0085
(6.3)
0.0074
(7.2)
0.0074
(6.5)
0.0095
(6.2)
Eddie Rosario 0.0457
0.0099
(16.8)
0.0076
(17.9)
0.0107
(16.0)
0.0090
(17.6)
Evan Gattis 0.0259
0.0039
(13.0)
0.0035
(13.3)
0.0041
(12.3)
0.0037
(13.6)
Starling Marte 0.0045
0.0207
(10.5)
0.0201
(10.1)
0.0164
(8.3)
0.0250
(12.7)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 James McCann 0.0012 0.0162 6.2
2 Jason Kipnis 0.0059 0.0153 5.7
3 Alejandro De Aza 0.0134 0.0294 5.7
4 Josh Harrison 0.0150 0.0029 5.7
5 Andre Ethier 0.0097 0.0227 5.6
6 David Peralta 0.0181 0.0290 5.4
7 Mookie Betts 0.0071 0.0158 5.4
8 Paulo Orlando 0.0108 0.0326 5.4
9 Aaron Altherr 0.0094 0.0426 5.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Gose 0.0076 0.0237 8.4
2 Mookie Betts 0.0045 0.0158 7.2
3 Bryce Harper 0.0134 0.0028 7.2
4 Tommy Pham 0.0072 0.0463 6.7
5 Carlos Gómez 0.0159 0.0031 6.3
6 Paulo Orlando 0.0076 0.0326 6.2
7 Josh Harrison 0.0161 0.0029 6.1
8 Jason Kipnis 0.0053 0.0153 6.1
9 Abraham Almonte 0.0046 0.0278 5.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Kipnis 0.0048 0.0153 5.9
2 Kevin Kiermaier 0.0175 0.0297 5.8
3 David Peralta 0.0164 0.0290 5.8
4 Alejandro De Aza 0.0123 0.0294 5.8
5 Kris Bryant 0.0047 0.0147 5.6
6 Aaron Altherr 0.0064 0.0426 5.6
7 Bryce Harper 0.0099 0.0028 5.5
8 Mookie Betts 0.0061 0.0158 5.5
9 Tommy Pham 0.0138 0.0463 5.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 AJ Pollock 0.0240 0.0118 7.9
2 James McCann 0.0000 0.0162 7.0
3 Josh Harrison 0.0184 0.0029 6.8
4 Andre Ethier 0.0093 0.0227 6.1
5 Carlos Gómez 0.0161 0.0031 6.0
6 Didi Gregorius 0.0152 0.0045 5.9
7 Cameron Maybin 0.0159 0.0050 5.8
8 Carlos González 0.0150 0.0052 5.8
9 Christian Yelich 0.0167 0.0054 5.7

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Anthony Gose 0.0076 0.0156 0.0237 8.4 4.1 4.4
2 Alex Rodriguez 0.0074 0.0020 0.0028 3.1 0.2 2.8
3 Cory Spangenberg 0.0120 0.0201 0.0212 3.0 0.2 2.8
4 Gregory Polanco 0.0039 0.0080 0.0129 5.6 2.9 2.7
5 Tommy Pham 0.0072 0.0204 0.0463 6.7 4.4 2.3
6 Ángel Pagán 0.0152 0.0110 0.0071 4.6 2.4 2.3
7 Ender Inciarte 0.0060 0.0099 0.0107 2.4 0.2 2.2
8 Justin Bour 0.0061 0.0010 0.0000 2.9 0.7 2.2
9 Bryce Harper 0.0134 0.0100 0.0028 7.2 5.0 2.2
10 Ben Paulsen 0.0064 0.0125 0.0177 3.9 1.7 2.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Bryant 0.0047 0.0093 0.0147 5.6 3.3 2.4
2 Dexter Fowler 0.0110 0.0147 0.0186 4.3 2.3 2.0
3 Cory Spangenberg 0.0138 0.0201 0.0212 2.1 0.2 1.9
4 Kevin Kiermaier 0.0175 0.0215 0.0297 5.8 4.1 1.7
5 Gregory Polanco 0.0047 0.0080 0.0129 4.5 2.9 1.6
6 Prince Fielder 0.0023 0.0011 0.0000 2.5 1.1 1.4
7 Chris Davis 0.0023 0.0011 0.0000 2.4 1.1 1.3
8 Ender Inciarte 0.0067 0.0099 0.0107 1.5 0.2 1.3
9 Alex Rodriguez 0.0039 0.0020 0.0028 1.5 0.2 1.2
10 Matt Kemp 0.0078 0.0069 0.0069 1.4 0.3 1.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 AJ Pollock 0.0240 0.0187 0.0118 7.9 5.0 3.0
2 Jace Peterson 0.0193 0.0139 0.0121 4.1 1.3 2.7
3 Mike Trout 0.0239 0.0196 0.0157 5.3 3.0 2.3
4 Starling Marte 0.0250 0.0207 0.0045 12.7 10.5 2.2
5 Joc Pederson 0.0127 0.0084 0.0035 5.2 3.1 2.1
6 César Hernández 0.0208 0.0156 0.0124 3.6 1.7 1.9
7 Alex Rodriguez 0.0000 0.0020 0.0028 2.0 0.2 1.8
8 Avisaíl García 0.0137 0.0100 0.0050 5.0 3.3 1.8
9 Freddy Galvis 0.0170 0.0133 0.0109 3.5 1.7 1.7
10 Billy Hamilton 0.0203 0.0159 0.0087 5.1 3.5 1.6

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Bryce Harper 0.1804
0.1326
(29.6)
0.1317
(31.5)
0.1320
(26.9)
0.1332
(32.3)
Lorenzo Cain 0.1672
0.1082
(34.1)
0.1131
(32.4)
0.1069
(32.1)
0.1094
(36.2)
Josh Donaldson 0.1716
0.1303
(27.5)
0.1291
(29.9)
0.1312
(23.6)
0.1293
(31.6)
Michael Bourn 0.0809
0.1184
(19.3)
0.1253
(21.6)
0.1132
(19.1)
0.1235
(19.5)
Delino DeShields 0.1687
0.0987
(33.1)
0.1145
(26.4)
0.0987
(30.9)
0.1145
(27.7)
DJ LeMahieu 0.1371
0.0941
(25.0)
0.1040
(20.2)
0.0923
(23.3)
0.0960
(26.8)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 AJ Pollock 0.1237 0.1649 26.0
2 Brandon Moss 0.1273 0.0894 21.3
3 Nolan Arenado 0.1119 0.1459 20.8
4 Yadier Molina 0.1002 0.0642 20.5
5 Nick Castellanos 0.1022 0.0706 20.4
6 Danny Valencia 0.0996 0.1561 20.4
7 Victor Martinez 0.1197 0.0804 20.3
8 Pablo Sandoval 0.1218 0.0851 19.8
9 Grégor Blanco 0.1038 0.1586 19.4
10 Adam LaRoche 0.1220 0.0847 19.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Martinez 0.0992 0.1416 27.6
2 AJ Pollock 0.1269 0.1649 25.3
3 Yadier Molina 0.1104 0.0642 24.7
4 Danny Valencia 0.0924 0.1561 23.9
5 Eric Hosmer 0.1107 0.1469 23.9
6 Russell Martin 0.1029 0.1499 23.6
7 Nolan Arenado 0.1102 0.1459 23.4
8 Chris Colabello 0.0892 0.1528 22.7
9 Kole Calhoun 0.1457 0.1137 22.3
10 Yunel Escobar 0.0891 0.1269 22.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 AJ Pollock 0.1046 0.1649 35.7
2 Victor Martinez 0.1299 0.0804 27.5
3 Nick Castellanos 0.1061 0.0706 25.5
4 Kyle Schwarber 0.0940 0.1905 24.4
5 Brandon Moss 0.1284 0.0894 24.3
6 Yadier Molina 0.1021 0.0642 23.9
7 Grégor Blanco 0.0880 0.1586 23.6
8 Pablo Sandoval 0.1245 0.0851 23.5
9 Adam LaRoche 0.1206 0.0847 20.9
10 Matt Duffy 0.0848 0.1258 20.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nolan Arenado 0.1039 0.1459 29.4
2 Russell Martin 0.1038 0.1499 24.5
3 Danny Valencia 0.0960 0.1561 23.5
4 J.D. Martinez 0.1082 0.1416 23.4
5 Yunel Escobar 0.0906 0.1269 22.7
6 Dexter Fowler 0.1179 0.1478 22.2
7 Kole Calhoun 0.1478 0.1137 21.9
8 Jedd Gyorko 0.1234 0.0742 21.5
9 Melky Cabrera 0.1355 0.1025 21.0
10 Ángel Pagán 0.1398 0.0998 20.9

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 J.D. Martinez 0.0992 0.1147 0.1416 27.6 15.9 11.6
2 Kyle Seager 0.1067 0.1190 0.1239 11.5 1.5 10.0
3 Michael Cuddyer 0.1347 0.1086 0.1078 11.1 1.4 9.7
4 James McCann 0.1137 0.0906 0.0753 16.5 7.6 8.9
5 Austin Jackson 0.1349 0.1172 0.1063 15.3 7.1 8.2
6 Gregory Polanco 0.1390 0.1247 0.1273 7.9 0.0 7.9
7 Kendrys Morales 0.0952 0.1048 0.1268 19.9 12.3 7.5
8 Brian McCann 0.1028 0.1144 0.1271 12.8 5.4 7.4
9 Danny Santana 0.1435 0.1153 0.1083 9.9 2.7 7.2
10 Chris Colabello 0.0892 0.1070 0.1528 22.7 15.5 7.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Prince Fielder 0.1303 0.1175 0.1126 17.3 5.3 12.0
2 David Ortiz 0.1363 0.1231 0.1189 15.1 4.2 10.9
3 AJ Pollock 0.1046 0.1237 0.1649 35.7 26.0 9.8
4 Billy Butler 0.1112 0.1032 0.1048 8.2 0.6 7.6
5 Cameron Maybin 0.0947 0.1128 0.1171 8.4 0.9 7.5
6 Gregory Polanco 0.1089 0.1247 0.1273 7.3 0.0 7.3
7 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.1062 0.1219 0.1348 13.9 6.7 7.2
8 Victor Martinez 0.1299 0.1197 0.0804 27.5 20.3 7.2
9 Mike Napoli 0.1259 0.1165 0.0981 16.4 9.9 6.6
10 Brett Gardner 0.1180 0.1317 0.1433 11.9 5.9 6.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jace Peterson 0.1243 0.1013 0.0921 17.9 7.1 10.8
2 Kris Bryant 0.1634 0.1453 0.1338 17.8 9.2 8.6
3 Nolan Arenado 0.1039 0.1119 0.1459 29.4 20.8 8.6
4 J.D. Martinez 0.1082 0.1147 0.1416 23.4 15.9 7.4
5 Gregory Polanco 0.1405 0.1247 0.1273 7.2 0.0 7.2
6 Joc Pederson 0.1396 0.1229 0.1145 13.4 6.4 7.0
7 Charlie Blackmon 0.1129 0.1182 0.1364 17.5 10.6 6.9
8 Jay Bruce 0.1415 0.1264 0.1109 18.4 11.8 6.6
9 Billy Butler 0.0952 0.1032 0.1048 7.1 0.6 6.5
10 Yunel Escobar 0.0906 0.0966 0.1269 22.7 16.3 6.4

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Josh Donaldson 0.1730
0.1417
(21.9)
0.1324
(28.2)
0.1400
(21.5)
0.1435
(22.5)
Nolan Arenado 0.1955
0.1253
(46.4)
0.1142
(53.4)
0.1326
(40.0)
0.1180
(53.0)
Kendrys Morales 0.1659
0.1274
(24.3)
0.1190
(29.3)
0.1221
(26.2)
0.1328
(22.5)
Justin Bour 0.1637
0.1126
(22.6)
0.1107
(23.2)
0.1087
(23.3)
0.1166
(21.9)
Brandon Crawford 0.1497
0.1010
(27.1)
0.1019
(26.3)
0.0892
(32.4)
0.1128
(21.9)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.0935 0.1574 27.4
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.1397 0.0931 23.8
3 George Springer 0.1422 0.0909 23.3
4 Matt Carpenter 0.0909 0.1263 23.3
5 Adam LaRoche 0.1384 0.0909 23.2
6 Marcus Semien 0.1125 0.0749 22.9
7 Mark Trumbo 0.1576 0.1174 22.1
8 Marcell Ozuna 0.1333 0.0891 22.1
9 Matt Duffy 0.0902 0.1258 21.5
10 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0924 0.1256 21.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryce Harper 0.0994 0.1514 33.4
2 Anthony Gose 0.1091 0.0486 32.9
3 Kris Bryant 0.1091 0.1523 27.5
4 Justin Smoak 0.1000 0.1799 25.9
5 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0851 0.1256 25.8
6 Starling Marte 0.0879 0.1280 24.8
7 David Peralta 0.1037 0.1509 23.9
8 Xander Bogaerts 0.0865 0.1239 23.8
9 Mitch Moreland 0.1195 0.1650 23.0
10 Danny Valencia 0.1148 0.1746 22.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.0826 0.1574 31.1
2 Matt Carpenter 0.0833 0.1263 26.8
3 Matt Duffy 0.0832 0.1258 24.4
4 Pablo Sandoval 0.1382 0.0931 24.2
5 Marcus Semien 0.1114 0.0749 23.6
6 Anthony Gose 0.0894 0.0486 23.3
7 Daniel Murphy 0.0897 0.1357 23.3
8 Ryan Zimmerman 0.1272 0.1872 22.3
9 Mitch Moreland 0.1193 0.1650 22.2
10 Danny Valencia 0.1139 0.1746 21.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mark Trumbo 0.1780 0.1174 31.9
2 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0821 0.1256 29.7
3 Bryce Harper 0.1107 0.1514 28.0
4 Adam LaRoche 0.1498 0.0909 27.5
5 George Springer 0.1501 0.0909 25.7
6 Xander Bogaerts 0.0873 0.1239 25.3
7 Gregory Polanco 0.1193 0.0798 24.4
8 Marcell Ozuna 0.1402 0.0891 24.2
9 Carlos Correa 0.1044 0.1574 23.8
10 Pablo Sandoval 0.1412 0.0931 23.2

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Bryant 0.1091 0.1618 0.1523 27.5 6.5 21.0
2 Odúbel Herrera 0.1091 0.0735 0.0764 18.1 1.3 16.8
3 Bryce Harper 0.0994 0.1230 0.1514 33.4 18.3 15.1
4 Anthony Rizzo 0.1210 0.1451 0.1441 15.5 1.0 14.5
5 Anthony Gose 0.1091 0.0830 0.0486 32.9 18.6 14.2
6 J.D. Martinez 0.1329 0.1534 0.1553 14.1 0.9 13.1
7 Alex Rodriguez 0.1043 0.1243 0.1387 20.8 8.7 12.1
8 J.T. Realmuto 0.1267 0.0970 0.1006 12.6 1.5 11.1
9 Billy Burns 0.1014 0.0684 0.0757 14.8 3.8 11.1
10 Michael Cuddyer 0.1433 0.1169 0.1005 17.8 6.9 11.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ryan Howard 0.1178 0.1447 0.1531 16.3 4.0 12.3
2 J.D. Martinez 0.1360 0.1534 0.1553 10.8 0.9 9.9
3 Mark Teixeira 0.1273 0.1499 0.1710 18.9 9.6 9.3
4 Marlon Byrd 0.1120 0.1368 0.1342 10.6 1.7 8.9
5 Brandon Phillips 0.0946 0.1106 0.1124 9.3 0.8 8.5
6 Alex Rodriguez 0.1085 0.1243 0.1387 17.0 8.7 8.3
7 Chris Davis 0.1429 0.1569 0.1746 19.4 11.6 7.8
8 Ryan Braun 0.1320 0.1478 0.1479 7.4 0.2 7.2
9 José Abreu 0.1682 0.1597 0.1512 13.2 6.0 7.2
10 Yoenis Cespedes 0.1401 0.1522 0.1553 8.4 1.8 6.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marlon Byrd 0.1616 0.1368 0.1342 13.8 1.7 12.1
2 Xander Bogaerts 0.0873 0.1032 0.1239 25.3 13.2 12.1
3 Lucas Duda 0.1637 0.1420 0.1318 16.5 5.9 10.6
4 Adrián González 0.1729 0.1538 0.1400 19.8 9.2 10.6
5 Bryce Harper 0.1107 0.1230 0.1514 28.0 18.3 9.7
6 Mark Trumbo 0.1780 0.1576 0.1174 31.9 22.1 9.7
7 Delino DeShields 0.1091 0.0873 0.0752 15.6 6.2 9.5
8 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0821 0.0924 0.1256 29.7 21.4 8.3
9 J.D. Martinez 0.1708 0.1534 0.1553 8.8 0.9 7.9
10 Manny Machado 0.0987 0.1069 0.1206 17.1 9.5 7.6

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Billy Hamilton 0.5327
0.4226
(56.3)
0.3471
(88.1)
0.4369
(48.7)
0.4091
(63.1)
AJ Pollock 0.2143
0.1447
(56.1)
0.1183
(70.3)
0.1264
(66.9)
0.1630
(44.8)
Ryan Braun 0.1633
0.0931
(47.7)
0.1016
(39.9)
0.0790
(54.4)
0.1069
(40.7)
Carlos González 0.0154
0.1082
(48.0)
0.1196
(58.2)
0.0880
(37.1)
0.1287
(59.6)
Manny Machado 0.1058
0.0420
(55.3)
0.0381
(54.4)
0.0444
(52.0)
0.0397
(58.1)
Charlie Blackmon 0.2416
0.1381
(80.0)
0.1324
(80.3)
0.1375
(78.9)
0.1387
(80.6)
Jake Marisnick 0.3200
0.1695
(61.1)
0.1282
(74.5)
0.1668
(61.3)
0.1721
(60.7)
Brandon Phillips 0.1345
0.0387
(68.3)
0.0492
(58.5)
0.0329
(70.5)
0.0444
(65.7)
Anthony Rizzo 0.0854
0.0362
(44.2)
0.0397
(38.0)
0.0367
(42.2)
0.0357
(45.6)
Justin Upton 0.1242
0.0609
(47.8)
0.0658
(41.5)
0.0492
(53.6)
0.0723
(41.7)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joc Pederson 0.1338 0.0256 55.2
2 Jace Peterson 0.1721 0.0795 47.0
3 Jimmy Paredes 0.1748 0.0444 44.7
4 Billy Burns 0.2601 0.1699 42.4
5 Jason Heyward 0.0838 0.1369 40.8
6 Jason Kipnis 0.1424 0.0674 39.2
7 Alcides Escobar 0.1746 0.1043 37.4
8 Ezequiel Carrera 0.2491 0.0408 37.3
9 Carlos Santana 0.0222 0.0585 33.4
10 Addison Russell 0.1105 0.0342 32.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kevin Pillar 0.0492 0.1656 78.4
2 Delino DeShields 0.0572 0.1880 68.5
3 Anthony Gose 0.0572 0.1716 65.8
4 Kevin Kiermaier 0.0674 0.1607 54.5
5 César Hernández 0.0405 0.1496 53.1
6 Mike Trout 0.1421 0.0564 52.6
7 Jason Kipnis 0.1528 0.0674 49.3
8 Michael A. Taylor 0.0577 0.1416 47.2
9 Alcides Escobar 0.1752 0.1043 41.3
10 Carlos Correa 0.0572 0.1346 37.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joc Pederson 0.1284 0.0256 53.3
2 Jason Heyward 0.0807 0.1369 41.3
3 Cameron Maybin 0.0976 0.1523 36.8
4 Ezequiel Carrera 0.2354 0.0408 35.1
5 Jimmy Paredes 0.1475 0.0444 35.1
6 José Reyes 0.1382 0.1935 34.7
7 Billy Burns 0.2434 0.1699 34.4
8 Kevin Kiermaier 0.1090 0.1607 33.8
9 Addison Russell 0.1099 0.0342 33.6
10 Jace Peterson 0.1470 0.0795 33.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Delino DeShields 0.0572 0.1880 71.9
2 Jace Peterson 0.1967 0.0795 60.9
3 Joc Pederson 0.1389 0.0256 57.3
4 Jimmy Paredes 0.2039 0.0444 55.3
5 Billy Burns 0.2754 0.1699 50.0
6 Jason Kipnis 0.1553 0.0674 46.5
7 Alcides Escobar 0.1849 0.1043 43.2
8 Jason Heyward 0.0870 0.1369 39.8
9 Ezequiel Carrera 0.2632 0.0408 39.7
10 Ben Revere 0.2426 0.1685 37.3

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kevin Pillar 0.0492 0.1555 0.1656 78.4 15.0 63.4
2 Anthony Gose 0.0572 0.2222 0.1716 65.8 19.7 46.1
3 Delino DeShields 0.0572 0.2662 0.1880 68.5 31.7 36.8
4 Billy Hamilton 0.3471 0.4226 0.5327 88.1 56.3 31.9
5 César Hernández 0.0405 0.1089 0.1496 53.1 24.6 28.5
6 Kevin Kiermaier 0.0674 0.1203 0.1607 54.5 29.0 25.5
7 Mike Trout 0.1421 0.1117 0.0564 52.6 28.3 24.3
8 Michael A. Taylor 0.0577 0.2003 0.1416 47.2 22.9 24.3
9 George Springer 0.0645 0.1210 0.1250 31.1 8.1 23.1
10 Carlos Correa 0.0572 0.1152 0.1346 37.1 14.4 22.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cameron Maybin 0.0976 0.1261 0.1523 36.8 22.3 14.5
2 AJ Pollock 0.1264 0.1447 0.2143 66.9 56.1 10.8
3 Chris Owings 0.1007 0.1189 0.1481 32.6 23.8 8.8
4 Yasmany Tomás 0.0851 0.0615 0.0505 9.8 1.2 8.6
5 Matt Kemp 0.0600 0.0753 0.0828 22.2 13.8 8.4
6 George Springer 0.1004 0.1210 0.1250 16.3 8.1 8.3
7 Curtis Granderson 0.0486 0.0609 0.0588 14.9 8.0 6.9
8 Iván De Jesús Jr. 0.0572 0.0286 0.0000 10.1 3.3 6.9
9 Ryan Braun 0.0790 0.0931 0.1633 54.4 47.7 6.7
10 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0642 0.0761 0.0917 27.1 20.5 6.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Delino DeShields 0.0572 0.2662 0.1880 71.9 31.7 40.2
2 Eric Young Jr. 0.0572 0.2785 0.4286 36.3 15.4 20.9
3 Ender Inciarte 0.2123 0.1851 0.1391 32.5 18.1 14.4
4 Jace Peterson 0.1967 0.1721 0.0795 60.9 47.0 13.8
5 Eddie Rosario 0.0842 0.1099 0.1222 25.3 12.4 12.9
6 Carlos González 0.1287 0.1082 0.0154 59.6 48.0 11.6
7 Ian Desmond 0.1644 0.1451 0.0956 34.3 22.9 11.4
8 Yasmany Tomás 0.0377 0.0615 0.0505 12.0 1.2 10.8
9 Jimmy Paredes 0.2039 0.1748 0.0444 55.3 44.7 10.6
10 Michael A. Taylor 0.2212 0.2003 0.1416 32.9 22.9 9.9

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Billy Burns 0.2942
0.2309
(33.4)
0.2527
(24.1)
0.2281
(33.9)
0.2338
(33.0)
Logan Forsythe 0.2815
0.2281
(30.9)
0.2394
(27.1)
0.2321
(27.2)
0.2240
(34.7)
Bryce Harper 0.3301
0.2794
(31.1)
0.2689
(41.3)
0.2787
(30.3)
0.2800
(32.1)
Chris Colabello 0.3213
0.2378
(28.9)
0.2305
(33.4)
0.2460
(25.3)
0.2298
(32.6)
Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3333
0.2686
(40.2)
0.2680
(43.9)
0.2557
(47.3)
0.2814
(33.3)
Victor Martinez 0.2455
0.3057
(30.8)
0.3072
(29.0)
0.3082
(32.9)
0.3033
(28.6)
Xander Bogaerts 0.3197
0.2612
(36.2)
0.2431
(51.4)
0.2596
(36.0)
0.2628
(36.6)
Matt Duffy 0.2949
0.2478
(26.9)
0.2535
(26.6)
0.2478
(25.8)
0.2478
(28.2)
Jason Kipnis 0.3027
0.2544
(28.8)
0.2593
(29.0)
0.2525
(28.8)
0.2563
(29.0)
Torii Hunter 0.2399
0.2818
(25.6)
0.2926
(28.7)
0.2850
(28.4)
0.2787
(22.6)
Francisco Lindor 0.3128
0.2391
(30.9)
0.2581
(24.8)
0.2341
(32.2)
0.2441
(29.7)
Nelson Cruz 0.3017
0.2496
(32.0)
0.2654
(25.1)
0.2497
(30.7)
0.2496
(33.5)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 AJ Pollock 0.2715 0.3153 27.3
2 Omar Infante 0.2712 0.2205 24.6
3 Yunel Escobar 0.2693 0.3140 24.5
4 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2825 0.3210 24.5
5 Jayson Werth 0.2807 0.2205 24.0
6 Francisco Cervelli 0.2480 0.2949 22.3
7 Mike Moustakas 0.2448 0.2842 22.2
8 Joey Votto 0.2789 0.3138 22.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yunel Escobar 0.2549 0.3140 36.1
2 Mike Moustakas 0.2306 0.2842 34.1
3 AJ Pollock 0.2722 0.3153 30.3
4 Nick Hundley 0.2284 0.3005 28.8
5 Jayson Werth 0.2931 0.2205 26.7
6 Chase Utley 0.2693 0.2118 23.5
7 Kendrys Morales 0.2553 0.2900 23.4
8 René Rivera 0.2530 0.1779 23.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 AJ Pollock 0.2604 0.3153 33.5
2 Odúbel Herrera 0.2395 0.2970 28.1
3 Jayson Werth 0.2857 0.2205 26.6
4 Omar Infante 0.2737 0.2205 26.6
5 Pablo Sandoval 0.2913 0.2447 26.1
6 Ender Inciarte 0.2545 0.3034 24.6
7 Carlos Correa 0.2194 0.2791 23.6
8 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2821 0.3210 23.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Prince Fielder 0.2618 0.3051 29.3
2 Chris Owings 0.2755 0.2272 27.2
3 Yunel Escobar 0.2676 0.3140 26.8
4 Jung Ho Kang 0.2301 0.2874 26.3
5 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2829 0.3210 25.8
6 Mike Moustakas 0.2418 0.2842 25.4
7 Joey Votto 0.2788 0.3138 23.6
8 Ian Desmond 0.2679 0.2333 22.9

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Xander Bogaerts 0.2431 0.2612 0.3197 51.4 36.2 15.3
2 Eric Hosmer 0.2689 0.2853 0.2972 20.1 5.8 14.4
3 Nick Hundley 0.2284 0.2597 0.3005 28.8 14.6 14.2
4 Kevin Pillar 0.2480 0.2651 0.2782 20.2 6.2 14.0
5 Michael Cuddyer 0.2997 0.2624 0.2586 16.0 2.9 13.1
6 Mike Moustakas 0.2306 0.2448 0.2842 34.1 22.2 11.9
7 Yunel Escobar 0.2549 0.2693 0.3140 36.1 24.5 11.6
8 Kolten Wong 0.2437 0.2607 0.2621 12.5 1.1 11.4
9 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2599 0.2707 0.2907 22.1 11.3 10.8
10 Nolan Arenado 0.2721 0.2858 0.2873 11.4 1.1 10.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.2395 0.2567 0.2970 28.1 19.9 8.2
2 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2557 0.2686 0.3333 47.3 40.2 7.2
3 AJ Pollock 0.2604 0.2715 0.3153 33.5 27.3 6.2
4 Ben Revere 0.2826 0.2930 0.3057 11.4 6.1 5.4
5 Carlos Correa 0.2194 0.2333 0.2791 23.6 18.4 5.2
6 Hanley Ramirez 0.2903 0.2808 0.2494 19.8 14.9 4.9
7 Justin Turner 0.2645 0.2771 0.2935 10.5 5.8 4.7
8 Ender Inciarte 0.2545 0.2646 0.3034 24.6 20.0 4.6
9 Steven Souza Jr. 0.2458 0.2371 0.2252 10.9 6.4 4.5
10 Anthony Gose 0.2349 0.2447 0.2536 7.3 3.1 4.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mookie Betts 0.2662 0.2759 0.2915 15.8 8.1 7.8
2 Prince Fielder 0.2618 0.2702 0.3051 29.3 21.9 7.4
3 Lucas Duda 0.2603 0.2473 0.2442 9.5 3.5 6.0
4 Jung Ho Kang 0.2301 0.2398 0.2874 26.3 20.7 5.6
5 Marlon Byrd 0.2710 0.2587 0.2470 13.6 8.1 5.5
6 Chris Owings 0.2755 0.2636 0.2272 27.2 21.9 5.4
7 Miguel Sanó 0.2177 0.2298 0.2688 16.8 12.0 4.8
8 Adam Lind 0.2910 0.2812 0.2769 8.7 4.3 4.4
9 Austin Jackson 0.2449 0.2507 0.2668 11.0 6.8 4.2
10 Jay Bruce 0.2550 0.2467 0.2259 19.6 15.6 4.0

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Logan Forsythe 0.3593
0.3002
(33.2)
0.3053
(34.7)
0.2998
(32.2)
0.3006
(34.4)
Bryce Harper 0.4602
0.3631
(60.2)
0.3449
(77.0)
0.3612
(60.1)
0.3649
(60.5)
Paul Goldschmidt 0.4352
0.3774
(36.5)
0.3796
(40.2)
0.3767
(35.7)
0.3782
(37.6)
Nelson Cruz 0.3695
0.3089
(36.3)
0.3275
(29.0)
0.3089
(35.0)
0.3088
(37.9)
Victor Martinez 0.3010
0.3678
(34.9)
0.3717
(33.2)
0.3752
(39.4)
0.3604
(30.2)
Joey Votto 0.4590
0.4109
(29.9)
0.4123
(34.0)
0.4050
(32.6)
0.4167
(27.4)
Curtis Granderson 0.3636
0.3160
(29.0)
0.3210
(30.6)
0.3128
(29.8)
0.3192
(28.3)
David Peralta 0.3714
0.3120
(28.0)
0.3173
(29.1)
0.3089
(28.6)
0.3151
(27.6)
Omar Infante 0.2340
0.3065
(35.3)
0.3111
(34.0)
0.3109
(38.2)
0.3020
(32.2)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wilson Ramos 0.3137 0.2579 30.7
2 Hanley Ramirez 0.3543 0.2907 29.6
3 Troy Tulowitzki 0.3864 0.3371 29.1
4 Miguel Sanó 0.2968 0.3851 27.8
5 Jayson Werth 0.3678 0.3016 27.0
6 Joe Panik 0.3104 0.3776 26.8
7 AJ Pollock 0.3224 0.3670 26.6
8 Mike Moustakas 0.2994 0.3475 26.4
9 Francisco Lindor 0.2881 0.3529 26.1
10 Pablo Sandoval 0.3369 0.2917 25.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Moustakas 0.2866 0.3475 38.9
2 Xander Bogaerts 0.3031 0.3548 35.4
3 Yunel Escobar 0.3190 0.3746 34.2
4 Manny Machado 0.3137 0.3586 33.7
5 Kendrys Morales 0.3117 0.3615 33.3
6 Kris Bryant 0.3211 0.3692 32.8
7 René Rivera 0.3142 0.2134 31.4
8 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3154 0.3586 29.7
9 Jayson Werth 0.3820 0.3016 29.5
10 DJ LeMahieu 0.3145 0.3582 28.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hanley Ramirez 0.3632 0.2907 34.3
2 AJ Pollock 0.3097 0.3670 33.8
3 Wilson Ramos 0.3153 0.2579 32.5
4 Pablo Sandoval 0.3455 0.2917 30.8
5 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3044 0.3586 30.7
6 Odúbel Herrera 0.2808 0.3440 30.1
7 Jayson Werth 0.3736 0.3016 29.9
8 Carlos Correa 0.2694 0.3449 29.6
9 Troy Tulowitzki 0.3833 0.3371 28.5
10 Joe Panik 0.3046 0.3776 28.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Miguel Sanó 0.2881 0.3851 31.5
2 Mike Moustakas 0.2951 0.3475 30.5
3 Troy Tulowitzki 0.3895 0.3371 29.5
4 Wilson Ramos 0.3121 0.2579 28.7
5 Miguel Cabrera 0.3820 0.4403 28.3
6 Kendrys Morales 0.3148 0.3615 28.0
7 Chris Colabello 0.2871 0.3667 27.6
8 Chris Owings 0.3087 0.2642 26.1
9 Alex Rodriguez 0.3120 0.3565 25.8
10 Jason Kipnis 0.3296 0.3721 25.4

Most Unique Misses for On-Base Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Bryce Harper 0.3449 0.3631 0.4602 77.0 60.2 16.8
2 Xander Bogaerts 0.3031 0.3211 0.3548 35.4 18.7 16.7
3 Eric Hosmer 0.3249 0.3415 0.3634 27.2 11.1 16.1
4 Kris Bryant 0.3211 0.3362 0.3692 32.8 18.1 14.7
5 Nick Hundley 0.2812 0.3074 0.3393 23.5 10.4 13.1
6 Kolten Wong 0.2937 0.3067 0.3214 18.4 5.8 12.6
7 Mike Moustakas 0.2866 0.2994 0.3475 38.9 26.4 12.5
8 Michael Cuddyer 0.3563 0.3189 0.3088 18.4 6.2 12.2
9 Anthony Rizzo 0.3486 0.3577 0.3866 28.2 16.6 11.6
10 Yunel Escobar 0.3190 0.3305 0.3746 34.2 23.0 11.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.2808 0.2987 0.3440 30.1 21.6 8.6
2 Carlos Correa 0.2694 0.2902 0.3449 29.6 21.4 8.2
3 AJ Pollock 0.3097 0.3224 0.3670 33.8 26.6 7.2
4 Torii Hunter 0.3273 0.3176 0.2928 23.6 17.0 6.6
5 Mookie Betts 0.3505 0.3434 0.3410 10.8 5.0 5.9
6 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3044 0.3154 0.3586 30.7 24.9 5.9
7 Lucas Duda 0.3306 0.3424 0.3520 7.9 2.5 5.4
8 Pablo Sandoval 0.3455 0.3369 0.2917 30.8 25.4 5.3
9 Hanley Ramirez 0.3632 0.3543 0.2907 34.3 29.6 4.7
10 Victor Martinez 0.3752 0.3678 0.3010 39.4 34.9 4.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Prince Fielder 0.3598 0.3676 0.3781 10.7 3.6 7.0
2 Chris Owings 0.3087 0.2955 0.2642 26.1 20.1 6.0
3 Dexter Fowler 0.3709 0.3604 0.3459 19.2 13.6 5.6
4 Adonis García 0.3211 0.2931 0.2929 6.1 1.0 5.1
5 Marlon Byrd 0.3144 0.3044 0.2904 14.6 10.4 4.2
6 Mike Moustakas 0.2951 0.2994 0.3475 30.5 26.4 4.1
7 Carlos Beltrán 0.3103 0.3157 0.3371 12.7 8.6 4.1
8 Andrew McCutchen 0.3839 0.3875 0.4015 10.1 6.0 4.0
9 Chris Colabello 0.2871 0.2959 0.3667 27.6 23.6 4.0
10 Stephen Vogt 0.2975 0.3029 0.3405 20.5 16.6 4.0

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Logan Forsythe 0.4444
0.3432
(54.7)
0.3577
(51.7)
0.3457
(51.2)
0.3407
(58.7)
Bryce Harper 0.6488
0.4906
(95.3)
0.4499
(128.4)
0.4871
(95.6)
0.4941
(95.7)
Lorenzo Cain 0.4773
0.3815
(50.4)
0.3877
(52.6)
0.3763
(51.6)
0.3866
(49.7)
Josh Donaldson 0.5677
0.4702
(60.6)
0.4537
(79.3)
0.4722
(56.9)
0.4682
(64.8)
Mark Teixeira 0.5485
0.4222
(52.6)
0.4173
(59.4)
0.4121
(55.9)
0.4325
(49.7)
Victor Martinez 0.3659
0.4788
(60.7)
0.4814
(57.3)
0.4848
(65.2)
0.4728
(55.9)
Nolan Arenado 0.5747
0.4658
(64.2)
0.4406
(87.5)
0.4685
(60.3)
0.4630
(68.7)
Adam LaRoche 0.3403
0.4477
(58.0)
0.4444
(51.6)
0.4331
(52.4)
0.4623
(63.1)
Nelson Cruz 0.5661
0.4572
(63.3)
0.4865
(50.4)
0.4565
(61.6)
0.4578
(65.4)
Matt Carpenter 0.5052
0.4038
(59.2)
0.4257
(51.2)
0.4032
(57.6)
0.4044
(61.5)
Brandon Crawford 0.4615
0.3602
(49.9)
0.3727
(48.4)
0.3498
(54.0)
0.3705
(46.4)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.3339 0.5116 71.4
2 Troy Tulowitzki 0.5390 0.4403 59.3
3 Francisco Lindor 0.3438 0.4821 55.2
4 Alex Rodriguez 0.3858 0.4857 54.2
5 Pablo Sandoval 0.4584 0.3660 52.9
6 Matt Duffy 0.3320 0.4276 50.9
7 Billy Burns 0.2882 0.3923 50.9
8 Michael Conforto 0.2333 0.5057 50.5
9 Franklin Gutierrez 0.3542 0.6199 47.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yoenis Cespedes 0.4539 0.5419 57.8
2 J.D. Martinez 0.4483 0.5352 55.4
3 Mike Moustakas 0.3772 0.4699 55.4
4 Manny Machado 0.4246 0.5024 53.6
5 Chris Colabello 0.3763 0.5195 50.6
6 Yadier Molina 0.4429 0.3504 50.4
7 Randal Grichuk 0.4033 0.5480 49.7
8 Kris Bryant 0.4123 0.4884 47.8
9 David Peralta 0.4269 0.5216 47.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.3110 0.5116 80.0
2 Alex Rodriguez 0.3723 0.4857 60.7
3 Francisco Lindor 0.3293 0.4821 60.1
4 AJ Pollock 0.3932 0.4975 59.8
5 Pablo Sandoval 0.4632 0.3660 56.9
6 Troy Tulowitzki 0.5254 0.4403 53.7
7 Franklin Gutierrez 0.3353 0.6199 50.9
8 Michael Conforto 0.2323 0.5057 50.0
9 Mike Zunino 0.4133 0.3000 49.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Troy Tulowitzki 0.5525 0.4403 64.4
2 Carlos Correa 0.3571 0.5116 63.1
3 Billy Burns 0.2857 0.3923 54.5
4 Chris Owings 0.4102 0.3223 53.1
5 Matt Duffy 0.3326 0.4276 53.0
6 Francisco Lindor 0.3583 0.4821 50.5
7 Andrés Blanco 0.3067 0.5021 48.8
8 Pablo Sandoval 0.4535 0.3660 48.5
9 Alex Rodriguez 0.3994 0.4857 48.3

Most Unique Misses for Slugging Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Bryce Harper 0.4499 0.4906 0.6488 128.4 95.3 33.0
2 Kris Bryant 0.4123 0.4988 0.4884 47.8 14.8 33.0
3 Anthony Rizzo 0.4621 0.4984 0.5119 33.1 0.8 32.3
4 Eric Hosmer 0.4044 0.4397 0.4591 34.8 4.7 30.1
5 Xander Bogaerts 0.3689 0.4125 0.4209 32.3 2.6 29.8
6 Maikel Franco 0.3611 0.4289 0.4967 44.6 18.6 26.0
7 Michael Cuddyer 0.5016 0.4319 0.3905 46.4 21.9 24.4
8 Mike Moustakas 0.3772 0.4066 0.4699 55.4 31.3 24.1
9 Nick Hundley 0.3611 0.4133 0.4672 40.3 16.2 24.1
10 Joc Pederson 0.3719 0.4058 0.4167 24.7 0.9 23.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 AJ Pollock 0.3932 0.4277 0.4975 59.8 38.7 21.1
2 Marlon Byrd 0.4030 0.4421 0.4526 18.5 1.0 17.5
3 Lucas Duda 0.4198 0.4496 0.4862 28.2 13.4 14.7
4 Prince Fielder 0.4706 0.4537 0.4633 15.8 1.9 13.8
5 Mike Trout 0.5371 0.5569 0.5896 25.2 13.9 11.4
6 Brett Lawrie 0.4264 0.4107 0.4075 20.7 9.4 11.3
7 Kyle Schwarber 0.3549 0.3907 0.4871 31.9 22.9 8.9
8 Carlos Correa 0.3110 0.3339 0.5116 80.0 71.4 8.6
9 Iván De Jesús Jr. 0.4123 0.3444 0.3731 12.1 3.6 8.5
10 David Ortiz 0.4924 0.5091 0.5530 27.7 19.4 8.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marlon Byrd 0.4809 0.4421 0.4526 20.0 1.0 18.9
2 Prince Fielder 0.4370 0.4537 0.4633 12.4 1.9 10.5
3 Freddy Galvis 0.3914 0.3716 0.3435 34.0 24.4 9.6
4 Mookie Betts 0.4078 0.4181 0.4791 41.1 31.8 9.3
5 Jay Bruce 0.4699 0.4519 0.4345 28.5 19.3 9.1
6 Mark Trumbo 0.4948 0.4753 0.4488 29.7 21.2 8.5
7 Jose Iglesias 0.3113 0.3254 0.3702 22.9 14.7 8.2
8 Eric Young Jr. 0.4123 0.3230 0.2471 16.3 8.3 8.0
9 Carlos Gómez 0.4816 0.4615 0.4092 38.5 30.8 7.7
10 Mark Canha 0.3642 0.3755 0.4263 26.0 18.7 7.4

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Adam Wainwright 111
825
(714.3)
785
(674.0)
810
(698.5)
841
(730.1)
Henderson Alvarez 102
707
(605.0)
699
(597.0)
698
(595.9)
716
(614.1)
Brett Oberholtzer 171
719
(548.2)
593
(422.0)
688
(517.2)
750
(579.1)
Brandon McCarthy 94
716
(622.4)
725
(631.0)
728
(633.7)
705
(611.1)
Homer Bailey 51
716
(665.1)
637
(586.0)
701
(650.1)
731
(680.1)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler Matzek 701 102 599.0
2 Jason Vargas 764 183 581.4
3 Ricky Nolasco 723 173 550.1
4 TJ House 555 73 481.9
5 Brett Anderson 272 750 478.2
6 Jhoulys Chacín 582 111 471.2
7 Derek Holland 713 245 468.1
8 Trevor Cahill 644 187 457.0
9 Dan Straily 530 76 453.8
10 Alex Meyer 468 15 452.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Heston 169 746 577.0
2 Brad Peacock 568 22 546.0
3 Anthony DeSclafani 241 785 544.0
4 Kevin Correia 644 114 530.0
5 Jason Vargas 704 183 521.0
6 Carlos Rodón 100 607 507.0
7 Noah Syndergaard 100 603 503.0
8 Eric Stults 698 196 502.0
9 Ricky Nolasco 673 173 500.0
10 Hector Noesí 596 154 442.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Heston 4 746 741.7
2 Derek Holland 864 245 619.2
3 Jason Vargas 798 183 614.8
4 Chris Rusin 4 594 589.7
5 Ricky Nolasco 754 173 581.2
6 Jhoulys Chacín 654 111 543.3
7 Lance McCullers Jr. 5 520 515.4
8 Michael Lorenzen 4 515 510.6
9 Williams Pérez 4 514 509.6
10 Carlos Rodón 100 607 507.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler Matzek 811 102 708.9
2 Dan Straily 742 76 666.0
3 Marcus Stroman 734 103 631.0
4 Andrew Albers 631 11 620.1
5 Chris Volstad 625 7 617.9
6 Chris Beck 642 31 610.9
7 Adam Wilk 618 10 608.0
8 Jon Moscot 653 50 603.1
9 Scott Copeland 667 69 597.9
10 Zach Lee 613 24 589.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Rodón 100 507 607 507.0 99.9 407.1
2 Noah Syndergaard 100 478 603 503.0 124.8 378.2
3 Matt Harvey 320 683 755 435.0 72.3 362.7
4 Kendall Graveman 118 479 502 384.0 22.6 361.4
5 Anthony DeSclafani 241 588 785 544.0 196.8 347.2
6 Kevin Correia 644 318 114 530.0 204.2 325.8
7 Taylor Jungmann 100 415 501 401.0 85.8 315.2
8 Taijuan Walker 305 614 706 401.0 92.3 308.7
9 Jimmy Nelson 383 673 752 369.0 78.7 290.3
10 Mike Fiers 355 632 761 406.0 129.0 277.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Rodón 100 507 607 507.0 99.9 407.1
2 Chris Rusin 4 345 594 589.7 249.4 340.4
3 Chris Heston 4 304 746 741.7 442.4 299.3
4 Trevor May 39 332 492 452.6 159.8 292.8
5 Yohan Flande 4 299 296 291.6 3.2 288.4
6 Félix Doubront 4 285 328 323.7 43.4 280.3
7 Matt Wisler 39 315 478 438.7 163.4 275.3
8 Williams Pérez 4 275 514 509.6 238.9 270.8
9 Cody Anderson 4 271 365 360.6 93.8 266.8
10 Joe Ross 4 266 314 309.6 48.3 261.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marcus Stroman 734 369 103 631.0 266.1 364.9
2 Tyler Wilson 696 350 149 547.0 201.1 345.9
3 Scott Copeland 667 336 69 597.9 266.7 331.2
4 Josh A. Smith 662 333 161 501.0 172.2 328.8
5 Jon Moscot 653 329 50 603.1 278.7 324.4
6 José Ureña 642 323 274 368.1 49.2 318.9
7 Chris Beck 642 323 31 610.9 292.2 318.7
8 Kevin Correia 632 318 114 518.1 204.2 313.9
9 Andrew Albers 631 318 11 620.1 306.7 313.4
10 Taylor Hill 631 318 51 579.9 266.6 313.3

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
David Buchanan 0.4098
0.3251
(27.3)
0.3094
(32.6)
0.3276
(26.5)
0.3035
(27.7)
Zack Greinke 0.2235
0.2781
(52.0)
0.2910
(63.3)
0.2808
(53.9)
0.2555
(50.0)
Jeremy Guthrie 0.3739
0.3267
(26.7)
0.3259
(26.8)
0.3293
(25.2)
0.3014
(30.1)
Marco Estrada 0.2764
0.3122
(31.1)
0.3066
(27.3)
0.3098
(29.0)
0.2949
(33.1)
Kyle Kendrick 0.3901
0.3366
(29.2)
0.3216
(38.3)
0.3401
(27.3)
0.3100
(33.3)
Jacob deGrom 0.2487
0.2891
(35.6)
0.2855
(33.3)
0.2958
(40.4)
0.2625
(30.9)
Matt Garza 0.3565
0.3057
(29.2)
0.2966
(34.9)
0.3132
(24.5)
0.2774
(34.6)
Jake Arrieta 0.2254
0.2940
(65.8)
0.2815
(55.4)
0.2924
(64.0)
0.2763
(67.9)
Dallas Keuchel 0.2541
0.3050
(52.7)
0.3131
(60.6)
0.3100
(56.9)
0.2774
(46.1)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.3546 0.2903 37.1
2 James Shields 0.2857 0.3350 36.4
3 Sonny Gray 0.2964 0.2619 34.5
4 Chris Archer 0.3001 0.2716 30.8
5 Chris Young 0.3314 0.2781 30.2
6 Cody Anderson 0.3551 0.2805 29.8
7 Phil Hughes 0.2936 0.3461 29.6
8 Ian Kennedy 0.2971 0.3453 29.3
9 Andrew Cashner 0.2906 0.3328 28.3
10 Erasmo Ramírez 0.3225 0.2880 27.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kyle Lohse 0.2965 0.3601 37.3
2 Jaime García 0.3104 0.2541 32.6
3 Max Scherzer 0.2857 0.2571 32.5
4 Andrew Cashner 0.2864 0.3328 31.2
5 Michael Lorenzen 0.3130 0.3795 30.4
6 Erasmo Ramírez 0.3252 0.2880 29.8
7 Alfredo Simon 0.3021 0.3448 28.8
8 Gerrit Cole 0.2994 0.2726 28.6
9 Eddie Butler 0.3200 0.4025 27.7
10 Ross Detwiler 0.3165 0.4198 27.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Sonny Gray 0.3028 0.2619 39.4
2 Chris Archer 0.3047 0.2716 34.4
3 Chris Rusin 0.3111 0.3722 32.4
4 Chris Young 0.3353 0.2781 31.9
5 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.3428 0.2903 30.8
6 Ian Kennedy 0.2981 0.3453 28.9
7 James Shields 0.2961 0.3350 27.8
8 Erasmo Ramírez 0.3225 0.2880 27.4
9 Clayton Kershaw 0.2544 0.2303 27.3
10 Mike Foltynewicz 0.3096 0.3801 25.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 James Shields 0.2543 0.3350 46.0
2 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.3468 0.2903 43.6
3 Phil Hughes 0.2615 0.3461 37.3
4 Andrew Cashner 0.2597 0.3328 36.9
5 Cody Anderson 0.3479 0.2805 34.6
6 Kyle Lohse 0.2838 0.3601 32.6
7 Ian Kennedy 0.2769 0.3453 29.3
8 Jaime García 0.2844 0.2541 29.3
9 Sonny Gray 0.2689 0.2619 28.4
10 Rick Porcello 0.2747 0.3394 27.6

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alfredo Simon 0.3021 0.3332 0.3448 28.8 3.7 25.1
2 Max Scherzer 0.2857 0.2643 0.2571 32.5 12.8 19.7
3 Corey Kluber 0.2942 0.2757 0.2818 17.7 0.9 16.8
4 Michael Pineda 0.2749 0.2990 0.3203 25.3 9.5 15.8
5 Danny Salazar 0.3124 0.2948 0.2927 20.6 6.9 13.8
6 David Hale 0.3105 0.3500 0.3649 16.2 2.7 13.5
7 John Lackey 0.3108 0.2963 0.2940 21.8 8.4 13.5
8 Noah Syndergaard 0.3130 0.2913 0.2779 25.7 12.3 13.4
9 Mike Bolsinger 0.3291 0.3034 0.3092 12.8 0.6 12.2
10 Yohan Flande 0.3061 0.3460 0.3612 14.1 2.4 11.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Rusin 0.3111 0.3290 0.3722 32.4 21.5 10.9
2 Garrett Richards 0.2951 0.2841 0.2914 9.0 0.2 8.8
3 Kyle Gibson 0.3267 0.3159 0.3048 23.4 14.9 8.5
4 Keyvius Sampson 0.3137 0.3411 0.3661 11.5 4.5 7.0
5 Adam Warren 0.3165 0.3033 0.2865 19.5 12.7 6.8
6 Mike Bolsinger 0.2873 0.3034 0.3092 7.2 0.6 6.6
7 Yovani Gallardo 0.3280 0.3195 0.3194 12.0 5.7 6.4
8 Kyle Hendricks 0.3031 0.2945 0.2940 11.6 5.6 6.0
9 Shelby Miller 0.3111 0.3041 0.2907 23.2 17.6 5.7
10 Clayton Kershaw 0.2544 0.2481 0.2303 27.3 22.1 5.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Garrett Richards 0.2524 0.2841 0.2914 10.1 0.2 9.9
2 James Shields 0.2543 0.2857 0.3350 46.0 36.4 9.6
3 Carlos Rodón 0.3100 0.3100 0.3195 10.8 1.4 9.4
4 Andrew Cashner 0.2597 0.2906 0.3328 36.9 28.3 8.6
5 Julio Teheran 0.2636 0.2939 0.3194 24.0 15.5 8.5
6 Alfredo Simon 0.3027 0.3332 0.3448 12.2 3.7 8.5
7 Raisel Iglesias 0.3137 0.3137 0.2968 17.5 9.5 8.0
8 Phil Hughes 0.2615 0.2936 0.3461 37.3 29.6 7.8
9 Matt Shoemaker 0.2653 0.2985 0.3247 18.3 10.9 7.4
10 Rick Porcello 0.2747 0.3046 0.3394 27.6 20.4 7.2

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Kyle Hendricks 0.2260
0.1678
(39.3)
0.1762
(37.0)
0.1729
(37.6)
0.1627
(41.2)
Chris Archer 0.2903
0.2051
(69.6)
0.2069
(72.6)
0.2070
(70.4)
0.2033
(69.0)
Travis Wood 0.2816
0.1786
(41.1)
0.1861
(40.1)
0.1781
(42.4)
0.1791
(39.8)
Carlos Carrasco 0.2959
0.2236
(49.1)
0.2232
(53.2)
0.2287
(47.4)
0.2185
(51.0)
Jake Arrieta 0.2713
0.2264
(34.7)
0.2314
(34.9)
0.2335
(30.9)
0.2193
(38.7)
Alex Wood 0.1735
0.2233
(43.9)
0.2296
(44.7)
0.2265
(44.2)
0.2200
(43.3)
Jeff Samardzija 0.1791
0.2294
(50.3)
0.2284
(44.7)
0.2211
(40.3)
0.2376
(60.1)
Dallas Keuchel 0.2371
0.1740
(52.9)
0.1795
(52.7)
0.1748
(54.7)
0.1731
(51.4)
R.A. Dickey 0.1425
0.1825
(39.8)
0.1995
(50.1)
0.1832
(37.9)
0.1818
(41.4)
Phil Hughes 0.1444
0.2057
(43.2)
0.2061
(40.0)
0.1993
(37.2)
0.2120
(48.9)
Clayton Kershaw 0.3382
0.2855
(42.5)
0.2673
(63.3)
0.2886
(42.1)
0.2823
(43.0)
Chris Sale 0.3208
0.2749
(35.0)
0.2619
(50.5)
0.2835
(30.0)
0.2662
(40.2)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jacob deGrom 0.2175 0.2730 37.9
2 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1877 0.1261 36.4
3 Brett Anderson 0.1961 0.1547 34.9
4 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1783 0.2481 33.7
5 Carlos Martinez 0.1967 0.2437 31.7
6 Jered Weaver 0.1761 0.1345 31.2
7 Matt Garza 0.1971 0.1562 30.6
8 Wily Peralta 0.1815 0.1255 29.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Noah Syndergaard 0.2040 0.2753 43.1
2 James Shields 0.2042 0.2512 40.6
3 Mark Buehrle 0.1582 0.1100 39.7
4 Justin Nicolino 0.2040 0.0764 38.3
5 Jered Weaver 0.1911 0.1345 37.7
6 Max Scherzer 0.2677 0.3070 35.6
7 Dellin Betances 0.2917 0.3946 34.2
8 Carson Smith 0.2097 0.3239 32.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jacob deGrom 0.2201 0.2730 38.0
2 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1901 0.1261 36.2
3 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1769 0.2481 35.8
4 Carlos Martinez 0.1974 0.2437 33.3
5 Brett Anderson 0.1930 0.1547 30.4
6 Matt Garza 0.1982 0.1562 29.5
7 Wily Peralta 0.1849 0.1255 29.5
8 James Shields 0.2151 0.2512 29.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Anderson 0.1992 0.1547 39.1
2 Jacob deGrom 0.2149 0.2730 38.0
3 Jered Weaver 0.1830 0.1345 37.4
4 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1853 0.1261 36.5
5 Yovani Gallardo 0.1892 0.1526 35.0
6 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1796 0.2481 31.7
7 Matt Garza 0.1960 0.1562 31.6
8 Marco Estrada 0.2156 0.1807 30.8

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Noah Syndergaard 0.2040 0.2414 0.2753 43.1 17.4 25.7
2 Justin Nicolino 0.2040 0.1190 0.0764 38.3 14.3 24.0
3 Cody Anderson 0.2040 0.1376 0.1205 30.4 8.1 22.3
4 Williams Pérez 0.2040 0.1575 0.1420 31.7 10.5 21.2
5 Clayton Kershaw 0.2673 0.2855 0.3382 63.3 42.5 20.8
6 Michael Lorenzen 0.2040 0.1595 0.1612 21.9 1.7 20.2
7 Alfredo Simon 0.1725 0.1315 0.1427 24.3 5.0 19.2
8 Max Scherzer 0.2677 0.2837 0.3070 35.6 16.5 19.1
9 Kendall Graveman 0.2034 0.1314 0.1534 25.0 8.5 16.5
10 Andrew Miller 0.2951 0.3561 0.4065 27.5 11.2 16.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matt Harvey 0.2677 0.2429 0.2490 15.8 0.8 15.0
2 Chris Rusin 0.1644 0.1384 0.1448 13.0 0.8 12.2
3 Mike Bolsinger 0.2365 0.2110 0.2103 13.3 2.7 10.6
4 Rubby De La Rosa 0.1969 0.1815 0.1854 11.1 0.9 10.2
5 Matt Shoemaker 0.1779 0.1894 0.2039 13.5 5.4 8.1
6 Mike Foltynewicz 0.2271 0.2048 0.1930 14.5 6.7 7.8
7 Corey Kluber 0.2540 0.2600 0.2765 18.0 10.2 7.7
8 Alfredo Simon 0.1250 0.1315 0.1427 12.6 5.0 7.6
9 Justin Verlander 0.1886 0.1998 0.2112 10.9 3.4 7.5
10 Noah Syndergaard 0.2331 0.2414 0.2753 24.1 17.4 6.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matt Harvey 0.2181 0.2429 0.2490 17.7 0.8 16.9
2 Chris Rusin 0.1124 0.1384 0.1448 14.8 0.8 14.0
3 Yovani Gallardo 0.1892 0.1771 0.1526 35.0 23.5 11.5
4 Adam Warren 0.2244 0.2064 0.1948 19.8 8.9 10.9
5 Jeff Samardzija 0.2376 0.2294 0.1791 60.1 50.3 9.8
6 CC Sabathia 0.2087 0.1985 0.1887 20.0 10.8 9.2
7 Rubby De La Rosa 0.1662 0.1815 0.1854 9.5 0.9 8.5
8 Jose Alvarez 0.1213 0.1531 0.2085 22.5 14.3 8.3
9 Mike Fiers 0.2171 0.2300 0.2365 9.0 1.2 7.9
10 Daniel Hudson 0.1774 0.2071 0.2448 17.4 9.5 7.9

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Julio Teheran 0.0866
0.0590
(24.4)
0.0627
(19.6)
0.0615
(21.4)
0.0565
(26.7)
Michael Pineda 0.0314
0.0564
(15.8)
0.0546
(15.9)
0.0541
(15.0)
0.0586
(17.1)
Ross Detwiler 0.1250
0.0725
(15.5)
0.0705
(15.5)
0.0764
(14.1)
0.0686
(16.7)
Taijuan Walker 0.0567
0.0859
(19.7)
0.0852
(20.6)
0.0880
(21.9)
0.0838
(18.0)
Jake Arrieta 0.0552
0.0851
(24.9)
0.0794
(21.6)
0.0801
(21.5)
0.0901
(29.0)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0860
0.1092
(17.3)
0.1117
(20.8)
0.1044
(14.4)
0.1140
(20.9)
Max Scherzer 0.0378
0.0656
(23.8)
0.0708
(30.2)
0.0653
(24.5)
0.0660
(23.9)
James Shields 0.0942
0.0567
(33.3)
0.0610
(28.0)
0.0573
(31.9)
0.0562
(34.0)
Trevor May 0.0528
0.1012
(23.1)
0.0878
(17.5)
0.0999
(23.0)
0.1024
(23.6)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1364 0.0827 27.2
2 Raisel Iglesias 0.1403 0.0709 26.9
3 Mike Fiers 0.0630 0.0841 17.1
4 Blake Treinen 0.0573 0.1143 16.3
5 Roberto Osuna 0.1199 0.0590 16.1
6 Matt Harvey 0.0711 0.0490 15.6
7 Félix Hernández 0.0531 0.0702 15.2
8 Andrew Cashner 0.0648 0.0821 15.0
9 Jacob deGrom 0.0715 0.0506 14.7
10 Ryan Vogelsong 0.0739 0.0970 14.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Rodón 0.0766 0.1170 24.1
2 Jacob deGrom 0.0776 0.0506 20.8
3 Michael Lorenzen 0.0766 0.1107 17.2
4 Mike Pelfrey 0.0864 0.0630 17.1
5 J.A. Happ 0.0847 0.0628 16.2
6 Madison Bumgarner 0.0628 0.0449 16.2
7 Mark Buehrle 0.0585 0.0399 15.9
8 Noah Syndergaard 0.0766 0.0514 15.6
9 Dellin Betances 0.0729 0.1205 15.6
10 Erasmo Ramírez 0.0828 0.0601 15.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1330 0.0827 26.0
2 Carlos Rodón 0.0766 0.1170 24.6
3 Mike Fiers 0.0619 0.0841 17.1
4 Roberto Osuna 0.1199 0.0590 16.4
5 Blake Treinen 0.0569 0.1143 16.1
6 Jacob deGrom 0.0714 0.0506 15.4
7 Gerrit Cole 0.0714 0.0529 15.2
8 Ryan Vogelsong 0.0722 0.0970 15.0
9 Juan Nicasio 0.0662 0.1231 14.9
10 Andrew Cashner 0.0643 0.0821 14.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1397 0.0827 28.8
2 Raisel Iglesias 0.1403 0.0709 26.8
3 Matt Harvey 0.0763 0.0490 19.5
4 Alex Colomé 0.1084 0.0678 17.8
5 Chris Bassitt 0.1311 0.0831 16.8
6 Jake Odorizzi 0.0911 0.0657 16.7
7 Mike Fiers 0.0641 0.0841 16.4
8 Félix Hernández 0.0520 0.0702 16.3
9 Blake Treinen 0.0577 0.1143 16.3
10 J.A. Happ 0.0860 0.0628 15.5

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Aaron Sanchez 0.0795 0.1167 0.1158 13.5 0.2 13.4
2 Carlos Rodón 0.0766 0.1361 0.1170 24.1 10.8 13.3
3 Phil Hughes 0.0465 0.0312 0.0246 14.7 3.5 11.3
4 Erasmo Ramírez 0.0828 0.0717 0.0601 15.6 6.9 8.7
5 Dallas Keuchel 0.0712 0.0645 0.0560 14.5 6.6 7.9
6 Dellin Betances 0.0729 0.0977 0.1205 15.6 8.0 7.6
7 Zack Greinke 0.0621 0.0553 0.0474 12.9 5.5 7.4
8 Francisco Liriano 0.1037 0.0962 0.0906 10.6 3.3 7.3
9 Michael Lorenzen 0.0766 0.0926 0.1107 17.2 10.0 7.2
10 Liam Hendriks 0.0699 0.0424 0.0421 7.4 0.3 7.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Rodón 0.0766 0.1361 0.1170 24.6 10.8 13.9
2 Phil Hughes 0.0421 0.0312 0.0246 11.2 3.5 7.8
3 Adam Loewen 0.0766 0.1370 0.1828 9.9 4.4 5.5
4 Dallas Keuchel 0.0685 0.0645 0.0560 11.2 6.6 4.6
5 Mike Bolsinger 0.0679 0.0782 0.0966 13.5 9.2 4.3
6 Corey Kluber 0.0593 0.0555 0.0508 7.3 3.0 4.3
7 Rubby De La Rosa 0.0871 0.0830 0.0779 7.3 3.1 4.2
8 Jeff Samardzija 0.0676 0.0652 0.0538 12.3 9.1 3.2
9 Chris Sale 0.0612 0.0586 0.0492 10.0 6.9 3.1
10 Gerrit Cole 0.0714 0.0688 0.0529 15.2 12.1 3.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kyle Barraclough 0.0766 0.1436 0.1837 10.6 4.1 6.6
2 Chris Bassitt 0.1311 0.1148 0.0831 16.8 11.0 5.8
3 Matt Marksberry 0.0766 0.1254 0.1481 7.9 2.6 5.3
4 Jimmy Nelson 0.0985 0.0920 0.0864 7.9 3.2 4.7
5 Alex Colomé 0.1084 0.0981 0.0678 17.8 13.2 4.6
6 Scott Oberg 0.0766 0.0942 0.1197 11.6 6.9 4.6
7 Jake Arrieta 0.0901 0.0851 0.0552 29.0 24.9 4.2
8 Matt Harvey 0.0763 0.0711 0.0490 19.5 15.6 3.8
9 Carlos Martinez 0.0781 0.0829 0.0834 5.2 1.4 3.8
10 Taylor Jungmann 0.1136 0.1059 0.0938 9.1 5.4 3.7

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Chris Archer 0.0035
0.0111
(6.4)
0.0111
(6.8)
0.0099
(5.8)
0.0122
(6.9)
Nick Martinez 0.0233
0.0089
(8.2)
0.0055
(9.8)
0.0080
(8.4)
0.0097
(8.0)
Chris Heston 0.0174
0.0108
(5.1)
0.0059
(8.4)
0.0101
(5.3)
0.0116
(4.9)
Jered Weaver 0.0179
0.0074
(7.2)
0.0081
(6.5)
0.0079
(6.5)
0.0070
(7.8)
Rick Porcello 0.0136
0.0059
(5.8)
0.0053
(5.9)
0.0067
(4.9)
0.0051
(6.8)
Scott Feldman 0.0000
0.0115
(5.1)
0.0114
(5.3)
0.0097
(4.5)
0.0133
(5.7)
Dallas Keuchel 0.0022
0.0079
(5.0)
0.0082
(5.7)
0.0073
(4.9)
0.0085
(5.0)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0139
0.0060
(6.5)
0.0067
(5.6)
0.0075
(4.9)
0.0045
(8.0)
Fernando Rodney 0.0289
0.0081
(5.8)
0.0075
(5.9)
0.0082
(5.6)
0.0079
(6.0)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Raisel Iglesias 0.0036 0.0177 5.7
2 Mike Pelfrey 0.0095 0.0168 5.4
3 Justin Masterson 0.0171 0.0366 5.4
4 Masahiro Tanaka 0.0099 0.0016 4.9
5 Scott Kazmir 0.0060 0.0118 4.6
6 Jesse Chavez 0.0101 0.0030 4.6
7 C.J. Wilson 0.0101 0.0181 4.6
8 Corey Kluber 0.0075 0.0124 4.5
9 Trevor Bauer 0.0130 0.0067 4.5
10 Chris Bassitt 0.0129 0.0249 4.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0102 0.0039 5.1
2 Justin Masterson 0.0180 0.0366 5.0
3 Jesse Chavez 0.0101 0.0030 5.0
4 Drew Hutchison 0.0090 0.0166 4.9
5 Trevor Bauer 0.0130 0.0067 4.8
6 Carson Smith 0.0081 0.0246 4.6
7 Danny Duffy 0.0073 0.0153 4.6
8 Alfredo Simon 0.0151 0.0098 4.5
9 Scott Kazmir 0.0056 0.0118 4.5
10 John Danks 0.0095 0.0039 4.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Masterson 0.0144 0.0366 6.0
2 Mike Pelfrey 0.0090 0.0168 5.4
3 Chris Bassitt 0.0103 0.0249 5.2
4 C.J. Wilson 0.0094 0.0181 4.7
5 Randy Choate 0.0116 0.0513 4.6
6 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0096 0.0269 4.4
7 Drew Hutchison 0.0097 0.0166 4.4
8 Mike Leake 0.0091 0.0039 4.3
9 Jesse Hahn 0.0090 0.0197 4.3
10 Carson Smith 0.0095 0.0246 4.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Raisel Iglesias 0.0036 0.0177 5.9
2 Anthony DeSclafani 0.0144 0.0064 5.7
3 Scott Kazmir 0.0053 0.0118 5.6
4 Masahiro Tanaka 0.0115 0.0016 5.5
5 Cole Hamels 0.0059 0.0114 5.5
6 Mike Pelfrey 0.0100 0.0168 5.4
7 Corey Kluber 0.0071 0.0124 5.4
8 Jesse Chavez 0.0118 0.0030 5.4
9 Kyle Gibson 0.0027 0.0085 5.4
10 Trevor Bauer 0.0147 0.0067 5.4

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Heston 0.0059 0.0108 0.0174 8.4 5.1 3.3
2 Alfredo Simon 0.0151 0.0120 0.0098 4.5 1.6 2.9
3 Taylor Jungmann 0.0087 0.0137 0.0160 3.5 1.2 2.3
4 Nate Karns 0.0138 0.0114 0.0081 3.7 1.9 1.8
5 Nick Martinez 0.0055 0.0089 0.0233 9.8 8.2 1.6
6 Tyson Ross 0.0118 0.0104 0.0097 1.9 0.3 1.5
7 Robbie Ray 0.0071 0.0101 0.0147 4.0 2.6 1.4
8 Taijuan Walker 0.0098 0.0122 0.0127 1.9 0.5 1.4
9 Johnny Cueto 0.0132 0.0122 0.0092 3.6 2.3 1.3
10 Williams Pérez 0.0087 0.0117 0.0175 4.4 3.1 1.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Charlie Morton 0.0161 0.0204 0.0213 2.8 0.6 2.2
2 Michael Pineda 0.0075 0.0052 0.0045 2.2 0.3 1.9
3 John Lackey 0.0062 0.0051 0.0045 1.8 0.4 1.4
4 Brett Anderson 0.0069 0.0056 0.0027 3.4 2.0 1.4
5 Darren O'Day 0.0121 0.0179 0.0195 1.8 0.5 1.4
6 David Price 0.0064 0.0054 0.0034 2.9 1.6 1.3
7 Rubby De La Rosa 0.0091 0.0081 0.0049 3.6 2.3 1.2
8 Daniel Hudson 0.0075 0.0037 0.0000 2.2 1.0 1.2
9 J.A. Happ 0.0059 0.0047 0.0028 2.4 1.2 1.2
10 Jimmy Nelson 0.0122 0.0143 0.0173 3.7 2.4 1.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kyle Gibson 0.0027 0.0048 0.0085 5.4 3.2 2.1
2 Shelby Miller 0.0041 0.0060 0.0070 3.1 1.1 2.0
3 Anthony DeSclafani 0.0144 0.0116 0.0064 5.7 3.9 1.8
4 Andrew Cashner 0.0035 0.0051 0.0075 3.8 2.1 1.7
5 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0045 0.0060 0.0139 8.0 6.5 1.6
6 Cole Hamels 0.0059 0.0071 0.0114 5.5 4.0 1.5
7 Mark Buehrle 0.0048 0.0061 0.0085 3.7 2.2 1.5
8 Zack Greinke 0.0039 0.0050 0.0059 2.4 1.0 1.4
9 Clayton Kershaw 0.0036 0.0046 0.0056 2.5 1.1 1.4
10 Wade Miley 0.0037 0.0048 0.0048 1.6 0.2 1.4

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Shelby Miller 0.0213
0.0405
(19.1)
0.0373
(17.0)
0.0398
(18.5)
0.0412
(19.7)
Matthew Boyd 0.0904
0.0393
(12.1)
0.0376
(12.4)
0.0393
(12.1)
0.0376
(12.5)
Kyle Kendrick 0.0664
0.0391
(15.3)
0.0346
(17.6)
0.0408
(14.2)
0.0374
(16.3)
Ian Kennedy 0.0646
0.0356
(18.5)
0.0363
(17.4)
0.0378
(17.0)
0.0335
(19.9)
Jake Arrieta 0.0172
0.0321
(15.6)
0.0273
(12.0)
0.0311
(14.7)
0.0330
(16.4)
Yovani Gallardo 0.0249
0.0372
(12.2)
0.0354
(11.3)
0.0374
(12.4)
0.0370
(12.0)
Aníbal Sánchez 0.0614
0.0282
(19.9)
0.0221
(23.5)
0.0325
(17.1)
0.0239
(22.8)
James Shields 0.0596
0.0275
(24.9)
0.0326
(19.9)
0.0323
(20.9)
0.0228
(29.0)
Rubby De La Rosa 0.0541
0.0342
(13.6)
0.0372
(10.6)
0.0344
(13.4)
0.0339
(13.8)
Mike Pelfrey 0.0193
0.0343
(12.9)
0.0318
(11.7)
0.0344
(12.9)
0.0342
(12.9)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Rodón 0.0492 0.0283 14.5
2 Nathan Eovaldi 0.0374 0.0200 13.8
3 Anthony DeSclafani 0.0436 0.0296 13.4
4 Gio Gonzalez 0.0290 0.0155 12.6
5 Phil Hughes 0.0324 0.0538 12.0
6 Matt Shoemaker 0.0350 0.0580 11.3
7 Edinson Volquez 0.0362 0.0260 11.3
8 Masahiro Tanaka 0.0351 0.0566 11.2
9 Héctor Santiago 0.0370 0.0544 11.1
10 Rick Porcello 0.0282 0.0463 11.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Taijuan Walker 0.0280 0.0500 12.8
2 Gio Gonzalez 0.0270 0.0155 11.6
3 Gerrit Cole 0.0290 0.0191 11.4
4 Matt Shoemaker 0.0343 0.0580 11.3
5 Kyle Lohse 0.0363 0.0569 11.2
6 Jaime García 0.0338 0.0158 11.1
7 Erasmo Ramírez 0.0449 0.0326 10.7
8 Kirby Yates 0.0397 0.1587 10.6
9 John Lackey 0.0394 0.0316 10.4
10 Juan Nicasio 0.0421 0.0062 10.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nathan Eovaldi 0.0408 0.0200 16.0
2 Gio Gonzalez 0.0312 0.0155 14.2
3 Anthony DeSclafani 0.0437 0.0296 13.5
4 Jose Quintana 0.0363 0.0253 12.1
5 Masahiro Tanaka 0.0341 0.0566 11.9
6 Kirby Yates 0.0343 0.1587 11.2
7 Rick Porcello 0.0283 0.0463 11.1
8 Evan Scribner 0.0338 0.0833 11.1
9 Colby Lewis 0.0485 0.0390 10.8
10 Brandon McCarthy 0.0299 0.1475 10.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Phil Hughes 0.0252 0.0538 16.6
2 Carlos Rodón 0.0492 0.0283 14.6
3 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.0532 0.0292 14.1
4 Max Scherzer 0.0278 0.0462 13.8
5 Anthony DeSclafani 0.0435 0.0296 13.3
6 Héctor Santiago 0.0347 0.0544 12.9
7 Edinson Volquez 0.0379 0.0260 12.8
8 Matt Shoemaker 0.0331 0.0580 12.4
9 Robbie Ray 0.0435 0.0244 12.1
10 Jaime García 0.0360 0.0158 11.9

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Heston 0.0333 0.0270 0.0303 5.1 0.2 4.9
2 David Phelps 0.0372 0.0285 0.0299 5.3 0.8 4.5
3 Michael Pineda 0.0302 0.0376 0.0430 6.0 1.6 4.5
4 John Lackey 0.0394 0.0352 0.0316 10.4 5.9 4.4
5 Arquimedes Caminero 0.0449 0.0318 0.0333 4.9 0.5 4.4
6 Erasmo Ramírez 0.0449 0.0392 0.0326 10.7 6.4 4.3
7 Taijuan Walker 0.0280 0.0347 0.0500 12.8 8.7 4.2
8 Dallas Keuchel 0.0296 0.0259 0.0265 6.3 2.3 4.0
9 Mike Bolsinger 0.0383 0.0312 0.0342 3.7 0.1 3.6
10 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0221 0.0282 0.0614 23.5 19.9 3.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mark Buehrle 0.0369 0.0317 0.0316 6.9 2.6 4.3
2 Jose Quintana 0.0363 0.0320 0.0253 12.1 8.4 3.7
3 Nick Martinez 0.0488 0.0423 0.0379 7.8 4.2 3.6
4 Carlos Martinez 0.0285 0.0238 0.0260 4.2 0.7 3.5
5 Jacob deGrom 0.0332 0.0281 0.0316 3.5 0.4 3.1
6 Jimmy Nelson 0.0359 0.0321 0.0342 3.6 0.7 2.9
7 Nate Karns 0.0362 0.0407 0.0458 4.1 1.3 2.8
8 Alex Colomé 0.0355 0.0296 0.0269 5.3 2.6 2.7
9 Lance Lynn 0.0318 0.0283 0.0254 7.1 4.5 2.6
10 Chris Rusin 0.0313 0.0357 0.0409 3.9 1.3 2.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Keyvius Sampson 0.0707 0.0515 0.0383 8.9 4.1 4.8
2 Phil Hughes 0.0252 0.0324 0.0538 16.6 12.0 4.7
3 Kyle Hendricks 0.0220 0.0280 0.0326 5.6 1.2 4.4
4 Michael Pineda 0.0314 0.0376 0.0430 5.7 1.6 4.1
5 James Shields 0.0228 0.0275 0.0596 29.0 24.9 4.1
6 Jacob deGrom 0.0229 0.0281 0.0316 4.2 0.4 3.8
7 Aaron Harang 0.0323 0.0374 0.0446 6.9 3.1 3.8
8 Wandy Rodriguez 0.0496 0.0406 0.0356 6.7 3.2 3.5
9 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.0532 0.0465 0.0292 14.1 10.6 3.5
10 Matt Harvey 0.0223 0.0268 0.0343 6.7 3.3 3.4

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Will Harris 0.1921
0.2957
(30.8)
0.3095
(33.1)
0.2909
(28.8)
0.3007
(32.9)
Zack Greinke 0.2295
0.2830
(51.9)
0.2990
(60.8)
0.2842
(50.7)
0.2818
(52.9)
Gio Gonzalez 0.3406
0.2848
(36.2)
0.2870
(38.6)
0.2898
(34.4)
0.2797
(38.2)
Marco Estrada 0.2157
0.2772
(50.4)
0.2727
(43.2)
0.2798
(50.4)
0.2745
(50.2)
Michael Pineda 0.3319
0.2828
(27.4)
0.2664
(42.0)
0.2824
(29.5)
0.2833
(25.5)
Dan Haren 0.2558
0.2901
(32.5)
0.2892
(27.6)
0.2880
(28.9)
0.2923
(36.1)
Drew Hutchison 0.3428
0.2885
(30.7)
0.2941
(30.6)
0.2886
(32.4)
0.2884
(29.2)
Masahiro Tanaka 0.2422
0.2849
(30.9)
0.2961
(34.4)
0.2858
(29.8)
0.2839
(31.8)
Josh Tomlin 0.1988
0.2976
(26.8)
0.3092
(28.4)
0.2931
(25.0)
0.3019
(28.5)
Jake Arrieta 0.2456
0.2844
(40.7)
0.2806
(32.7)
0.2908
(44.0)
0.2780
(37.3)
Dallas Keuchel 0.2688
0.2972
(33.1)
0.3048
(35.1)
0.3026
(35.7)
0.2918
(30.5)
Héctor Santiago 0.2520
0.2805
(28.3)
0.2901
(31.6)
0.2805
(26.3)
0.2805
(30.3)
Chris Young 0.2095
0.2695
(34.0)
0.2621
(27.6)
0.2694
(32.6)
0.2697
(35.3)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Sonny Gray 0.2878 0.2551 33.8
2 Andrew Cashner 0.2860 0.3303 29.2
3 Chi Chi González 0.2926 0.2057 26.6
4 Mike Leake 0.2854 0.2598 26.2
5 R.A. Dickey 0.2780 0.2572 25.5
6 Joaquín Benoit 0.2743 0.1824 25.4
7 Cody Anderson 0.2982 0.2369 25.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Cashner 0.2805 0.3303 37.9
2 Danny Salazar 0.3167 0.2777 31.5
3 Max Scherzer 0.2988 0.2675 30.4
4 Mike Leake 0.2949 0.2598 29.3
5 Colby Lewis 0.3204 0.2891 29.2
6 Wade Davis 0.3116 0.2000 28.7
7 Chris Sale 0.2867 0.3227 28.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Sonny Gray 0.2970 0.2551 39.3
2 Nathan Eovaldi 0.2875 0.3367 29.5
3 R.A. Dickey 0.2848 0.2572 29.1
4 Mike Leake 0.2907 0.2598 28.2
5 Joaquín Benoit 0.2832 0.1824 27.0
6 Chi Chi González 0.2948 0.2057 26.4
7 Garrett Richards 0.2982 0.2738 25.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Cashner 0.2755 0.3303 35.6
2 Sonny Gray 0.2784 0.2551 28.1
3 Cody Anderson 0.3008 0.2369 27.1
4 Chi Chi González 0.2904 0.2057 26.6
5 Rick Porcello 0.2857 0.3320 26.5
6 Tyson Ross 0.2781 0.3196 25.6
7 David Buchanan 0.2869 0.3688 25.1

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Colby Lewis 0.3204 0.2956 0.2891 29.2 12.6 16.6
2 Danny Salazar 0.3167 0.2913 0.2777 31.5 16.4 15.1
3 Michael Pineda 0.2664 0.2828 0.3319 42.0 27.4 14.6
4 Johnny Cueto 0.2609 0.2708 0.2813 15.5 2.1 13.3
5 Corey Kluber 0.3143 0.2956 0.2966 17.9 6.2 11.7
6 Rubby De La Rosa 0.3119 0.2925 0.2875 21.8 10.6 11.3
7 Jimmy Nelson 0.3109 0.2909 0.2854 21.1 10.2 10.9
8 Max Scherzer 0.2988 0.2813 0.2675 30.4 19.6 10.8
9 Chris Tillman 0.2694 0.2762 0.2932 15.8 6.7 9.1
10 Alfredo Simon 0.2717 0.2939 0.2935 15.8 6.9 8.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Garrett Richards 0.2982 0.2866 0.2738 25.8 18.0 7.8
2 Shelby Miller 0.2880 0.2769 0.2848 7.4 0.2 7.2
3 Nathan Eovaldi 0.2875 0.2934 0.3367 29.5 23.7 5.8
4 Carlos Martinez 0.2892 0.2939 0.3183 17.9 12.3 5.5
5 Sonny Gray 0.2970 0.2878 0.2551 39.3 33.8 5.5
6 Kyle Gibson 0.3052 0.2961 0.2867 19.6 14.3 5.3
7 Raisel Iglesias 0.2959 0.2754 0.2857 6.1 0.9 5.2
8 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.2926 0.2808 0.2712 13.8 9.1 4.7
9 CC Sabathia 0.2881 0.2917 0.3168 17.0 12.4 4.6
10 Madison Bumgarner 0.2850 0.2772 0.2817 7.6 3.1 4.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 David Price 0.3040 0.2970 0.2903 21.5 13.1 8.4
2 Johnny Cueto 0.2588 0.2708 0.2813 10.4 2.1 8.3
3 Colby Lewis 0.3025 0.2956 0.2891 20.6 12.6 8.0
4 Phil Hughes 0.3113 0.3021 0.3039 11.6 4.0 7.6
5 Shelby Miller 0.2658 0.2769 0.2848 7.3 0.2 7.1
6 Andrew Cashner 0.2755 0.2860 0.3303 35.6 29.2 6.4
7 Tyson Ross 0.2781 0.2883 0.3196 25.6 19.2 6.4
8 Danny Salazar 0.2971 0.2913 0.2777 22.6 16.4 6.2
9 Rubby De La Rosa 0.2962 0.2925 0.2875 15.5 10.6 5.0
10 Kyle Lohse 0.2714 0.2810 0.3139 21.3 16.6 4.8

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Zack Greinke 0.1866
0.2126
(27.4)
0.2303
(37.1)
0.2131
(26.2)
0.2818
(28.8)
Gio Gonzalez 0.2638
0.2119
(34.4)
0.2106
(40.0)
0.2173
(31.7)
0.2797
(34.1)
Marco Estrada 0.1588
0.2064
(39.3)
0.2005
(30.5)
0.2098
(40.3)
0.2745
(39.7)
Dan Haren 0.1735
0.2109
(33.7)
0.2108
(29.0)
0.2092
(31.0)
0.2923
(44.4)
Masahiro Tanaka 0.1559
0.2129
(38.7)
0.2207
(39.7)
0.2143
(38.4)
0.2839
(40.8)
Jake Arrieta 0.1825
0.2118
(31.2)
0.2117
(25.8)
0.2181
(35.0)
0.2780
(30.0)
Héctor Santiago 0.1726
0.2197
(41.6)
0.2310
(45.6)
0.2194
(39.9)
0.2805
(36.4)
Jordan Zimmermann 0.2567
0.2138
(30.2)
0.2178
(32.0)
0.2167
(29.4)
0.2816
(30.0)
A.J. Burnett 0.2763
0.2127
(39.9)
0.2231
(36.9)
0.2182
(37.3)
0.2906
(32.6)
Nathan Eovaldi 0.2837
0.2215
(37.5)
0.2336
(33.4)
0.2156
(42.7)
0.2994
(30.5)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Hutchison 0.1948 0.2555 36.0
2 Raisel Iglesias 0.2754 0.1959 34.0
3 Carlos Rodón 0.2861 0.2407 31.5
4 CC Sabathia 0.2187 0.2653 29.1
5 Tyson Ross 0.2137 0.2529 26.9
6 Ryan Madson 0.2847 0.1834 26.7
7 Alex Wood 0.2154 0.2551 26.6
8 Chris Sale 0.2155 0.2530 26.4
9 Kendall Graveman 0.1841 0.2425 26.1
10 Jake Odorizzi 0.2107 0.1801 26.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jake Odorizzi 0.2243 0.1801 31.2
2 Drew Hutchison 0.2081 0.2555 31.2
3 Wade Davis 0.2465 0.1267 30.2
4 Andrew Cashner 0.2104 0.2464 28.6
5 Danny Salazar 0.2405 0.2046 27.5
6 Michael Pineda 0.2007 0.2420 27.3
7 Josh Tomlin 0.2336 0.1287 26.4
8 CC Sabathia 0.2292 0.2653 25.9
9 Alex Colomé 0.2158 0.2708 24.9
10 Max Scherzer 0.2175 0.1903 24.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Hutchison 0.1943 0.2555 37.5
2 CC Sabathia 0.2160 0.2653 32.4
3 Chris Sale 0.2166 0.2530 27.2
4 Mike Pelfrey 0.2259 0.2679 26.7
5 Aroldis Chapman 0.1996 0.2975 25.9
6 R.A. Dickey 0.2136 0.1891 25.7
7 Chris Heston 0.2464 0.2168 25.6
8 Joaquín Benoit 0.2124 0.1195 24.8
9 Brett Anderson 0.2213 0.2588 24.6
10 Max Scherzer 0.2130 0.1903 24.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.2697 0.1397 34.5
2 Tyson Ross 0.2781 0.2529 29.5
3 Josh Tomlin 0.3019 0.1287 28.2
4 Jake Odorizzi 0.2812 0.1801 28.0
5 Ian Kennedy 0.2890 0.1893 27.6
6 Alfredo Simon 0.2931 0.1990 27.2
7 Alex Wood 0.2831 0.2551 26.5
8 Rick Porcello 0.2857 0.2602 26.2
9 Andrew Cashner 0.2755 0.2464 25.6
10 Chris Sale 0.2842 0.2530 25.4

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Danny Salazar 0.2405 0.2190 0.2046 27.5 15.9 11.6
2 Michael Pineda 0.2007 0.2118 0.2420 27.3 15.8 11.5
3 Erasmo Ramírez 0.2383 0.2152 0.2105 18.7 7.5 11.2
4 Colby Lewis 0.2380 0.2194 0.2141 20.9 10.2 10.7
5 Zack Greinke 0.2303 0.2126 0.1866 37.1 27.4 9.8
6 Joe Kelly 0.2275 0.2369 0.2457 10.4 1.3 9.1
7 J.A. Happ 0.2081 0.2139 0.2346 18.7 10.1 8.6
8 Charlie Morton 0.2386 0.2176 0.2170 12.4 4.0 8.4
9 Wade Davis 0.2465 0.2092 0.1267 30.2 22.4 7.8
10 Bryan Morris 0.2181 0.2401 0.2626 12.2 4.4 7.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Johnny Cueto 0.2123 0.2008 0.2016 13.2 4.9 8.3
2 Garrett Richards 0.2237 0.2123 0.2143 12.1 3.9 8.2
3 Shelby Miller 0.2160 0.2047 0.2077 11.1 3.0 8.1
4 Radhames Liz 0.2229 0.2837 0.3167 9.5 2.8 6.7
5 Sonny Gray 0.2228 0.2133 0.2140 11.1 4.8 6.3
6 Adam Loewen 0.2229 0.2843 0.2917 6.0 0.1 5.9
7 Carlos Martinez 0.2169 0.2226 0.2464 18.8 13.0 5.8
8 Kyle Gibson 0.2289 0.2205 0.2167 13.8 8.4 5.4
9 Nathan Eovaldi 0.2156 0.2215 0.2837 42.7 37.5 5.2
10 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.2194 0.2074 0.2055 9.6 4.4 5.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matthew Boyd 0.2229 0.2189 0.2398 19.6 3.6 16.0
2 Joe Kelly 0.2811 0.2369 0.2457 15.0 1.3 13.7
3 Colby Lewis 0.3025 0.2194 0.2141 23.6 10.2 13.4
4 Chris Young 0.2697 0.1756 0.1397 34.5 21.3 13.2
5 Trevor Gott 0.2229 0.2195 0.2338 14.5 1.6 13.0
6 David Price 0.3040 0.2244 0.2164 23.6 12.8 10.8
7 Dan Haren 0.2923 0.2109 0.1735 44.4 33.7 10.6
8 Phil Hughes 0.3113 0.2281 0.2216 18.7 8.5 10.2
9 Joe Smith 0.2647 0.2310 0.2487 12.2 3.0 9.2
10 Blaine Boyer 0.2938 0.1928 0.1991 9.0 0.1 9.0

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Zack Greinke 0.0377
0.0637
(22.6)
0.0626
(22.3)
0.0643
(22.6)
0.0000
(22.3)
CC Sabathia 0.0436
0.0661
(16.9)
0.0764
(25.0)
0.0652
(15.8)
0.0000
(14.9)
Bud Norris 0.1133
0.0635
(18.5)
0.0677
(16.6)
0.0642
(18.4)
0.0000
(18.5)
Jeremy Hellickson 0.0901
0.0635
(16.4)
0.0640
(15.6)
0.0643
(16.3)
0.0000
(16.5)
Dallas Keuchel 0.0448
0.0681
(21.9)
0.0629
(17.8)
0.0685
(21.7)
0.0000
(17.6)
Michael Lorenzen 0.0997
0.0645
(17.7)
0.0655
(16.8)
0.0646
(18.0)
0.0000
(18.3)
Jordan Zimmermann 0.0419
0.0647
(19.6)
0.0644
(19.9)
0.0654
(19.6)
0.0000
(18.4)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Rodón 0.0000 0.0635 38.0
2 Raisel Iglesias 0.0000 0.0857 33.5
3 Sonny Gray 0.0674 0.0394 24.0
4 Chris Heston 0.0392 0.0703 22.6
5 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0632 0.0885 19.4
6 Chad Bettis 0.0679 0.1063 18.9
7 A.J. Burnett 0.0751 0.0495 18.5
8 Kyle Hendricks 0.0460 0.0714 18.2
9 Pedro Báez 0.0375 0.1212 17.3
10 Brett Anderson 0.0667 0.0458 16.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Anderson 0.0724 0.0458 21.1
2 John Lackey 0.0684 0.0498 18.0
3 A.J. Burnett 0.0724 0.0495 17.1
4 Eddie Butler 0.0651 0.1124 16.9
5 Kevin Jepsen 0.0659 0.0103 16.3
6 James Shields 0.0622 0.0825 16.2
7 Will Harris 0.0794 0.0226 16.1
8 Marco Estrada 0.0668 0.0471 15.5
9 Mat Latos 0.0593 0.0920 15.4
10 Cole Hamels 0.0772 0.0613 15.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Sonny Gray 0.0672 0.0394 23.2
2 Chris Heston 0.0394 0.0703 23.0
3 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0635 0.0885 19.7
4 Chad Bettis 0.0682 0.1063 19.1
5 Kyle Hendricks 0.0466 0.0714 18.3
6 A.J. Burnett 0.0747 0.0495 17.7
7 Pedro Báez 0.0381 0.1212 17.3
8 Kendall Graveman 0.0924 0.0599 16.4
9 Brett Anderson 0.0668 0.0458 15.9
10 Kevin Jepsen 0.0650 0.0103 15.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Gott 0.0655 0.0195 22.3
2 Chad Bettis 0.0000 0.1063 21.2
3 Sonny Gray 0.0000 0.0394 20.6
4 Matthew Boyd 0.0655 0.0526 19.4
5 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0000 0.0885 19.3
6 Eddie Butler 0.0000 0.1124 17.8
7 Wade Miley 0.0000 0.0851 17.5
8 Ian Kennedy 0.0000 0.0869 16.2
9 James Shields 0.0000 0.0825 15.8
10 Drew Hutchison 0.0000 0.0873 15.4

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cole Hamels 0.0772 0.0644 0.0613 15.4 3.4 12.0
2 Jimmy Nelson 0.0787 0.0667 0.0630 12.9 3.4 9.6
3 Eddie Butler 0.0651 0.0906 0.1124 16.9 7.8 9.2
4 Kyle Gibson 0.0569 0.0685 0.0700 9.5 0.6 8.9
5 Jesse Chavez 0.0514 0.0650 0.0662 9.0 0.3 8.7
6 Shelby Miller 0.0550 0.0654 0.0687 10.5 2.1 8.3
7 CC Sabathia 0.0764 0.0661 0.0436 25.0 16.9 8.0
8 Charlie Morton 0.0545 0.0693 0.0823 14.8 6.9 7.9
9 Wily Peralta 0.0515 0.0678 0.0826 14.2 6.7 7.4
10 Danny Salazar 0.0733 0.0655 0.0585 12.4 5.9 6.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matt Harvey 0.0651 0.0629 0.0513 10.5 9.4 1.2
2 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.0664 0.0675 0.0781 6.0 5.1 0.9
3 Wade Miley 0.0677 0.0681 0.0851 14.3 13.5 0.8
4 Charlie Morton 0.0685 0.0693 0.0823 7.7 6.9 0.8
5 Dan Haren 0.0713 0.0717 0.0787 5.6 4.8 0.8
6 Shelby Miller 0.0651 0.0654 0.0687 2.9 2.1 0.8
7 Lance Lynn 0.0647 0.0650 0.0663 1.1 0.3 0.8
8 Jered Weaver 0.0636 0.0641 0.0765 8.5 7.7 0.8
9 Matt Shoemaker 0.0659 0.0665 0.0718 3.3 2.5 0.8
10 Masahiro Tanaka 0.0647 0.0651 0.0791 8.7 8.0 0.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matthew Boyd 0.0655 0.0661 0.0526 19.4 3.6 15.8
2 Drew Hutchison 0.0000 0.0848 0.0873 15.4 1.1 14.3
3 Trevor Gott 0.0655 0.0665 0.0195 22.3 9.7 12.6
4 Roberto Osuna 0.0655 0.0663 0.0756 14.7 2.3 12.4
5 Eddie Butler 0.0000 0.0906 0.1124 17.8 7.8 10.1
6 Zack Godley 0.0655 0.0657 0.0543 11.3 1.8 9.5
7 Andrew McKirahan 0.0655 0.0661 0.0538 9.8 1.7 8.1
8 Tyler Cravy 0.0655 0.0664 0.0775 10.1 2.0 8.1
9 Scott Oberg 0.0655 0.0674 0.0833 12.0 3.9 8.1
10 Mitch Harris 0.0655 0.0650 0.0111 14.5 6.7 7.8

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Chris Archer 0.0000
0.0069
(6.6)
0.0061
(5.9)
0.0069
(6.5)
0.0000
(6.4)
Aaron Harang 0.0197
0.0067
(9.2)
0.0077
(8.6)
0.0069
(9.2)
0.0000
(9.3)
Danny Salazar 0.0146
0.0069
(5.3)
0.0029
(8.4)
0.0068
(5.5)
0.0000
(5.5)
Ian Kennedy 0.0245
0.0068
(12.2)
0.0079
(11.3)
0.0068
(12.2)
0.0000
(12.3)
Kyle Gibson 0.0000
0.0072
(6.5)
0.0061
(5.5)
0.0072
(6.4)
0.0000
(6.0)
Mike Fiers 0.0144
0.0066
(5.4)
0.0042
(7.2)
0.0067
(5.4)
0.0000
(5.4)
Jonathan Broxton 0.0303
0.0059
(6.1)
0.0062
(6.0)
0.0060
(6.1)
0.0000
(5.9)
Shane Greene 0.0289
0.0043
(8.9)
0.0071
(7.9)
0.0042
(9.0)
0.0000
(8.0)
Jason Hammel 0.0149
0.0063
(5.6)
0.0066
(5.4)
0.0064
(5.6)
0.0000
(5.4)
Alfredo Simon 0.0166
0.0070
(7.3)
0.0047
(9.2)
0.0070
(7.4)
0.0000
(7.6)
Juan Nicasio 0.0311
0.0067
(6.1)
0.0088
(5.6)
0.0068
(6.2)
0.0000
(6.2)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Garrett Richards 0.0071 0.0000 6.7
2 Jake Odorizzi 0.0066 0.0166 6.5
3 Drew Hutchison 0.0089 0.0000 6.4
4 Gio Gonzalez 0.0069 0.0157 6.2
5 Carlos Rodón 0.0000 0.0106 6.0
6 Kyle Kendrick 0.0071 0.0172 6.0
7 Ryan Vogelsong 0.0068 0.0170 5.7
8 Jacob deGrom 0.0067 0.0000 5.6
9 Junichi Tazawa 0.0068 0.0291 5.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rubby De La Rosa 0.0096 0.0018 6.9
2 Collin McHugh 0.0103 0.0033 6.6
3 Kendall Graveman 0.0123 0.0000 6.5
4 Mike Bolsinger 0.0159 0.0032 6.2
5 Tom Koehler 0.0123 0.0054 6.1
6 Robbie Ray 0.0051 0.0167 6.0
7 J.A. Happ 0.0096 0.0020 5.9
8 Yovani Gallardo 0.0058 0.0136 5.7
9 Mark Buehrle 0.0018 0.0089 5.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Garrett Richards 0.0071 0.0000 6.7
2 Jake Odorizzi 0.0067 0.0166 6.5
3 Drew Hutchison 0.0090 0.0000 6.4
4 Gio Gonzalez 0.0069 0.0157 6.3
5 Kyle Kendrick 0.0071 0.0172 6.0
6 Ryan Vogelsong 0.0068 0.0170 5.7
7 Jacob deGrom 0.0068 0.0000 5.6
8 Jeff Samardzija 0.0071 0.0137 5.5
9 Junichi Tazawa 0.0069 0.0291 5.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jake Odorizzi 0.0000 0.0166 6.5
2 Gio Gonzalez 0.0000 0.0157 6.4
3 Garrett Richards 0.0000 0.0000 6.3
4 Kyle Kendrick 0.0000 0.0172 6.2
5 Jeff Samardzija 0.0000 0.0137 5.8
6 Ryan Vogelsong 0.0000 0.0170 5.8
7 Jacob deGrom 0.0000 0.0000 5.5
8 Junichi Tazawa 0.0000 0.0291 5.4
9 Taijuan Walker 0.0000 0.0000 5.2

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tom Koehler 0.0123 0.0070 0.0054 6.1 1.8 4.3
2 Mark Buehrle 0.0018 0.0069 0.0089 5.4 1.1 4.2
3 Carlos Martinez 0.0132 0.0068 0.0082 4.2 0.6 3.6
4 Mike Bolsinger 0.0159 0.0082 0.0032 6.2 2.7 3.6
5 Alex Wood 0.0025 0.0069 0.0086 4.3 0.8 3.5
6 Chase Anderson 0.0118 0.0067 0.0065 3.9 0.6 3.3
7 Danny Salazar 0.0029 0.0069 0.0146 8.4 5.3 3.0
8 Collin McHugh 0.0103 0.0070 0.0033 6.6 3.8 2.8
9 Carlos Carrasco 0.0032 0.0070 0.0112 5.3 2.5 2.8
10 CC Sabathia 0.0033 0.0069 0.0079 2.9 0.2 2.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ryan Madson 0.0075 0.0000 0.0000 2.0 0.2 1.8
2 Radhames Liz 0.0075 0.0000 0.0000 0.9 0.1 0.8
3 Raisel Iglesias 0.0075 0.0000 0.0041 1.6 1.3 0.2
4 Yovani Gallardo 0.0071 0.0073 0.0136 4.6 4.5 0.2
5 Jeff Samardzija 0.0071 0.0072 0.0137 5.5 5.3 0.1
6 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0067 0.0068 0.0095 1.8 1.7 0.1
7 CC Sabathia 0.0068 0.0069 0.0079 0.3 0.2 0.1
8 Danny Salazar 0.0068 0.0069 0.0146 5.5 5.3 0.1
9 Matt Harvey 0.0068 0.0066 0.0059 1.1 1.0 0.1
10 Marco Estrada 0.0066 0.0067 0.0098 1.9 1.7 0.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Scott Oberg 0.0075 0.0072 0.0000 3.8 2.0 1.8
2 Ryan Madson 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.8 0.2 1.6
3 Robbie Ray 0.0000 0.0093 0.0167 5.1 3.6 1.5
4 Zack Godley 0.0075 0.0070 0.0000 2.2 1.1 1.1
5 Andrew McKirahan 0.0075 0.0069 0.0000 1.9 1.0 0.9
6 Christian Bergman 0.0000 0.0098 0.0133 1.7 0.8 0.9
7 Mitch Harris 0.0075 0.0067 0.0000 1.8 0.9 0.9
8 Aaron Sanchez 0.0000 0.0043 0.0000 2.8 1.9 0.9
9 A.J. Burnett 0.0000 0.0079 0.0103 2.1 1.2 0.9
10 Josh Osich 0.0075 0.0069 0.0000 1.8 0.9 0.9

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Andrew Cashner 0.1381
0.1006
(27.5)
0.0968
(29.1)
0.1093
(21.0)
0.0919
(33.8)
Zack Greinke 0.0510
0.0894
(35.2)
0.0883
(35.7)
0.0914
(36.2)
0.0874
(34.2)
John Lackey 0.0792
0.1037
(24.9)
0.1088
(31.0)
0.1045
(25.0)
0.1028
(24.9)
Matthew Boyd 0.1984
0.1166
(19.8)
0.1124
(20.4)
0.1165
(20.0)
0.1124
(20.6)
Drew Hutchison 0.1551
0.1151
(24.4)
0.1145
(23.6)
0.1142
(25.5)
0.1160
(23.2)
Bud Norris 0.1804
0.1138
(23.8)
0.1093
(24.9)
0.1142
(24.0)
0.1135
(23.6)
Matt Garza 0.1532
0.1108
(26.0)
0.1121
(23.9)
0.1153
(23.5)
0.1063
(28.4)
Jake Arrieta 0.0598
0.1020
(39.6)
0.1030
(42.1)
0.1034
(40.2)
0.1006
(39.2)
Shane Greene 0.1796
0.1206
(20.8)
0.1090
(24.4)
0.1229
(20.2)
0.1183
(21.3)
Dallas Keuchel 0.0746
0.1068
(32.3)
0.1110
(37.7)
0.1084
(33.1)
0.1053
(31.8)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1430 0.0942 27.1
2 Cody Anderson 0.1479 0.0877 23.2
3 David Price 0.1004 0.0788 22.1
4 Rick Porcello 0.1074 0.1398 21.4
5 Yovani Gallardo 0.1189 0.0958 20.9
6 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1085 0.1499 20.8
7 Marco Estrada 0.1176 0.0924 20.6
8 Kyle Lohse 0.1151 0.1489 20.3
9 Aníbal Sánchez 0.1018 0.1348 19.6
10 Chris Young 0.1224 0.0880 18.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kyle Lohse 0.1014 0.1489 28.2
2 Alfredo Simon 0.0988 0.1366 26.8
3 Jaime García 0.1120 0.0725 22.7
4 David Price 0.0988 0.0788 22.2
5 Kyle Kendrick 0.1220 0.1622 22.1
6 Carlos Martinez 0.1101 0.0861 22.0
7 Jeremy Guthrie 0.1158 0.1521 20.7
8 Marco Estrada 0.1157 0.0924 20.6
9 Dan Haren 0.1243 0.1029 20.4
10 David Buchanan 0.1087 0.1709 20.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yovani Gallardo 0.1258 0.0958 25.8
2 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1375 0.0942 23.8
3 Jacob deGrom 0.1069 0.0786 23.2
4 Chris Rusin 0.1098 0.1481 21.2
5 Sonny Gray 0.1065 0.0854 19.6
6 Chris Young 0.1243 0.0880 19.4
7 Carlos Martinez 0.1089 0.0861 19.2
8 Rick Porcello 0.1113 0.1398 19.1
9 Mike Foltynewicz 0.1085 0.1579 18.7
10 Kyle Kendrick 0.1300 0.1622 18.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1486 0.0942 30.4
2 Cody Anderson 0.1617 0.0877 28.6
3 Marco Estrada 0.1244 0.0924 26.2
4 David Price 0.1038 0.0788 25.9
5 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1009 0.1499 24.5
6 Rick Porcello 0.1036 0.1398 23.6
7 Kyle Lohse 0.1098 0.1489 23.2
8 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0966 0.1348 22.5
9 Jaime García 0.1111 0.0725 21.8
10 Ian Kennedy 0.1011 0.1332 19.9

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alfredo Simon 0.0988 0.1280 0.1366 26.8 4.3 22.5
2 Max Scherzer 0.0940 0.0825 0.0823 15.0 3.1 11.9
3 Miguel González 0.1009 0.1216 0.1302 15.1 3.3 11.7
4 David Hale 0.1012 0.1354 0.1618 19.2 8.0 11.2
5 Mike Bolsinger 0.1240 0.1021 0.1052 11.1 0.1 11.0
6 Dan Haren 0.1243 0.1125 0.1029 20.4 9.9 10.4
7 Michael Pineda 0.0893 0.1062 0.1243 19.9 9.9 10.1
8 Madison Bumgarner 0.0949 0.0856 0.0840 13.9 4.3 9.6
9 Aroldis Chapman 0.0840 0.0521 0.0468 11.8 2.4 9.4
10 Joe Kelly 0.1023 0.1183 0.1295 12.9 4.6 8.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Rusin 0.1098 0.1257 0.1481 21.2 11.4 9.9
2 Tyson Ross 0.1043 0.0950 0.0948 9.9 2.9 7.1
3 Chris Archer 0.1102 0.1032 0.0979 12.9 7.4 5.4
4 Shelby Miller 0.1130 0.1063 0.0953 17.4 12.3 5.1
5 Adam Warren 0.1172 0.1069 0.0955 12.9 7.8 5.1
6 Jacob deGrom 0.1069 0.0994 0.0786 23.2 18.1 5.1
7 Sonny Gray 0.1065 0.0997 0.0854 19.6 14.6 5.0
8 Yovani Gallardo 0.1258 0.1189 0.0958 25.8 20.9 4.9
9 Mike Bolsinger 0.0919 0.1021 0.1052 5.0 0.1 4.9
10 Lance Lynn 0.1043 0.0974 0.0879 14.3 9.6 4.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Garrett Richards 0.0851 0.0943 0.1087 16.8 9.5 7.3
2 James Shields 0.0855 0.0944 0.1081 15.9 9.0 6.9
3 Andrew Cashner 0.0919 0.1006 0.1381 33.8 27.5 6.3
4 Julio Teheran 0.0918 0.0993 0.1174 18.1 12.5 5.6
5 Johnny Cueto 0.0827 0.0900 0.1005 11.8 6.2 5.6
6 Marco Estrada 0.1244 0.1176 0.0924 26.2 20.6 5.6
7 Robbie Ray 0.1313 0.1223 0.1028 17.9 12.4 5.4
8 Mike Fiers 0.1139 0.1077 0.1091 6.9 1.5 5.4
9 Cody Anderson 0.1617 0.1479 0.0877 28.6 23.2 5.3
10 Colby Lewis 0.1353 0.1301 0.1324 6.1 0.9 5.2

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Zack Greinke 0.0486
0.0822
(30.8)
0.0828
(33.2)
0.0821
(30.9)
0.0823
(30.8)
Jeremy Guthrie 0.1476
0.1124
(21.4)
0.1079
(22.8)
0.1136
(20.5)
0.1111
(22.3)
John Lackey 0.0748
0.0956
(21.3)
0.0992
(26.6)
0.0952
(21.1)
0.0961
(21.7)
David Price 0.0676
0.0926
(24.9)
0.0902
(24.9)
0.0882
(21.1)
0.0971
(28.8)
Kyle Kendrick 0.1590
0.1224
(21.2)
0.1127
(25.7)
0.1206
(22.2)
0.1242
(20.1)
Kyle Lohse 0.1489
0.1071
(25.8)
0.0931
(33.6)
0.1116
(22.7)
0.1026
(28.8)
Bud Norris 0.1645
0.1060
(20.9)
0.1034
(21.0)
0.1056
(21.0)
0.1064
(20.8)
Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1481
0.1001
(24.6)
0.0939
(26.7)
0.1066
(21.0)
0.0936
(28.2)
Jake Arrieta 0.0517
0.0945
(39.8)
0.0980
(44.9)
0.0943
(39.8)
0.0946
(39.8)
Shane Greene 0.1716
0.1119
(21.2)
0.0972
(25.8)
0.1133
(20.6)
0.1104
(21.7)
Jeff Samardzija 0.1297
0.1027
(21.8)
0.0964
(25.4)
0.1041
(20.4)
0.1013
(23.1)
Dallas Keuchel 0.0703
0.0979
(27.9)
0.1014
(33.2)
0.0978
(28.0)
0.0981
(28.0)
Aníbal Sánchez 0.1318
0.0942
(22.9)
0.0900
(24.1)
0.0980
(20.3)
0.0903
(25.5)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1340 0.0865 26.2
2 Matt Garza 0.1031 0.1396 22.4
3 Cody Anderson 0.1377 0.0849 20.3
4 Matthew Boyd 0.1077 0.1905 20.1
5 Yovani Gallardo 0.1103 0.0883 19.8
6 Drew Hutchison 0.1073 0.1401 19.8
7 Edinson Volquez 0.1131 0.0929 19.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alfredo Simon 0.0905 0.1280 26.5
2 Gerrit Cole 0.0975 0.0721 25.5
3 Matt Garza 0.0998 0.1396 23.0
4 Carlos Martinez 0.1042 0.0795 22.7
5 Chris Tillman 0.0940 0.1296 22.4
6 David Buchanan 0.0990 0.1652 21.4
7 Robbie Ray 0.1246 0.0917 20.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yovani Gallardo 0.1163 0.0883 24.7
2 Shelby Miller 0.1047 0.0802 23.7
3 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1284 0.0865 23.4
4 Jacob deGrom 0.0978 0.0719 21.8
5 Gerrit Cole 0.0942 0.0721 21.0
6 Drew Hutchison 0.1062 0.1401 20.4
7 Matthew Boyd 0.1076 0.1905 20.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1397 0.0865 29.2
2 Cody Anderson 0.1506 0.0849 25.0
3 Matt Garza 0.0997 0.1396 24.7
4 Marco Estrada 0.1161 0.0869 23.3
5 Matthew Boyd 0.1041 0.1905 21.0
6 Rick Porcello 0.0972 0.1275 20.2
7 Jaime García 0.1051 0.0686 20.1

Most Unique Misses for Earned Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alfredo Simon 0.0905 0.1195 0.1280 26.5 4.5 21.9
2 Max Scherzer 0.0888 0.0763 0.0790 13.6 0.2 13.4
3 David Hale 0.0890 0.1260 0.1532 20.4 8.4 12.0
4 Miguel González 0.0932 0.1134 0.1270 17.7 6.6 11.1
5 Michael Pineda 0.0819 0.0991 0.1168 19.7 9.9 9.9
6 Mike Bolsinger 0.1129 0.0942 0.0944 11.1 1.3 9.9
7 Aroldis Chapman 0.0798 0.0470 0.0432 11.7 1.9 9.8
8 Madison Bumgarner 0.0859 0.0784 0.0817 8.3 0.3 7.9
9 Joe Kelly 0.0938 0.1097 0.1227 13.8 5.9 7.9
10 Danny Duffy 0.0800 0.0958 0.1054 11.8 3.9 7.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Rusin 0.1004 0.1166 0.1313 16.5 7.0 9.5
2 Tyson Ross 0.0945 0.0874 0.0863 9.4 3.4 6.0
3 Shelby Miller 0.1047 0.0987 0.0802 23.7 18.5 5.3
4 Chris Archer 0.1009 0.0952 0.0876 14.4 9.2 5.2
5 Yovani Gallardo 0.1163 0.1103 0.0883 24.7 19.8 4.9
6 Adam Warren 0.1079 0.0991 0.0899 11.3 6.5 4.8
7 Jacob deGrom 0.0978 0.0921 0.0719 21.8 17.4 4.4
8 Lance Lynn 0.0954 0.0899 0.0786 15.0 10.8 4.3
9 Aaron Brooks 0.1006 0.1173 0.1640 15.1 10.9 4.1
10 Sonny Gray 0.0965 0.0918 0.0758 19.8 15.7 4.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Garrett Richards 0.0795 0.0867 0.0971 12.7 6.4 6.3
2 James Shields 0.0796 0.0869 0.1023 17.0 10.8 6.3
3 Julio Teheran 0.0859 0.0924 0.1068 15.1 9.6 5.6
4 Andrew Cashner 0.0866 0.0932 0.1107 17.1 11.7 5.3
5 Mike Bolsinger 0.1055 0.0942 0.0944 6.5 1.3 5.2
6 Robbie Ray 0.1226 0.1135 0.0917 18.4 13.4 4.9
7 Mike Fiers 0.1068 0.1004 0.0972 9.5 4.6 4.9
8 Johnny Cueto 0.0773 0.0828 0.0935 11.5 6.7 4.8
9 Cody Anderson 0.1506 0.1377 0.0849 25.0 20.3 4.7
10 Jaime García 0.1051 0.0959 0.0686 20.1 15.4 4.7

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Zack Greinke 0.5938
0.4257
(142.5)
0.3684
(150.1)
0.4181
(144.1)
0.4333
(153.0)
Collin McHugh 0.5938
0.3646
(197.6)
0.2162
(283.7)
0.3623
(194.8)
0.3667
(213.1)
Michael Wacha 0.5667
0.3447
(169.8)
0.1765
(261.4)
0.3717
(145.0)
0.3200
(204.0)
Jake Arrieta 0.6667
0.3446
(281.0)
0.2222
(345.6)
0.3825
(243.1)
0.3103
(328.3)
Dallas Keuchel 0.6061
0.3870
(200.4)
0.2250
(304.1)
0.3816
(200.2)
0.3929
(213.4)
Colby Lewis 0.5152
0.3332
(157.4)
0.2222
(211.6)
0.3331
(152.7)
0.3333
(174.6)
Nathan Eovaldi 0.5185
0.3104
(140.7)
0.1707
(202.3)
0.3348
(120.5)
0.2857
(170.8)
Gerrit Cole 0.5938
0.4242
(141.8)
0.3143
(193.2)
0.3849
(169.9)
0.4643
(125.2)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Estrada 0.1197 0.3824 191.1
2 Corey Kluber 0.4603 0.2812 157.8
3 Carlos Carrasco 0.2518 0.4667 157.6
4 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1902 0.3750 146.9
5 Josh Tomlin 0.1177 0.7000 146.4
6 Chad Bettis 0.1130 0.4000 144.5
7 Chris Heston 0.1987 0.3871 141.2
8 Kyle Lohse 0.3395 0.1351 135.3
9 Shelby Miller 0.3366 0.1818 132.3
10 CC Sabathia 0.3791 0.2069 124.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Martinez 0.0682 0.4516 253.8
2 Rubby De La Rosa 0.1471 0.4375 196.8
3 Carlos Carrasco 0.1538 0.4667 193.9
4 Danny Salazar 0.1714 0.4667 187.8
5 Félix Hernández 0.3077 0.5806 186.5
6 Garrett Richards 0.2143 0.4688 179.3
7 Chris Heston 0.1111 0.3871 170.7
8 David Price 0.3333 0.5625 161.6
9 Matt Harvey 0.1905 0.4483 159.0
10 Jacob deGrom 0.2222 0.4667 148.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Estrada 0.0852 0.3824 212.0
2 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1330 0.3750 187.7
3 Chris Heston 0.1384 0.3871 182.1
4 Josh Tomlin 0.0816 0.7000 154.1
5 Chad Bettis 0.0951 0.4000 150.7
6 Corey Kluber 0.4375 0.2812 142.6
7 Kyle Lohse 0.3327 0.1351 134.5
8 Madison Bumgarner 0.4145 0.5625 124.5
9 CC Sabathia 0.3698 0.2069 121.6
10 Andrew Cashner 0.3380 0.1935 119.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Carrasco 0.1714 0.4667 230.9
2 Johnny Cueto 0.5556 0.3438 165.2
3 Corey Kluber 0.4839 0.2812 160.9
4 Tanner Roark 0.4643 0.1000 160.3
5 Rubby De La Rosa 0.2759 0.4375 147.8
6 Chad Bettis 0.1389 0.4000 141.6
7 Shelby Miller 0.3667 0.1818 140.9
8 Félix Hernández 0.4375 0.5806 135.6
9 Marco Estrada 0.2258 0.3824 128.7
10 Kyle Lohse 0.3462 0.1351 126.3

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Martinez 0.0682 0.3702 0.4516 253.8 62.2 191.7
2 Garrett Richards 0.2143 0.4114 0.4688 179.3 50.4 128.9
3 Danny Salazar 0.1714 0.3868 0.4667 187.8 61.2 126.6
4 Jimmy Nelson 0.1333 0.3405 0.3667 140.0 20.3 119.6
5 Dallas Keuchel 0.2250 0.3870 0.6061 304.1 200.4 103.8
6 Taijuan Walker 0.1538 0.3446 0.3793 125.8 25.2 100.7
7 Matt Harvey 0.1905 0.3631 0.4483 159.0 65.0 94.0
8 Michael Wacha 0.1765 0.3447 0.5667 261.4 169.8 91.5
9 Tanner Roark 0.3000 0.1583 0.1000 115.4 26.8 88.6
10 Sonny Gray 0.2683 0.4226 0.4516 113.1 24.9 88.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ryan Madson 0.2384 0.0000 0.0147 56.6 3.9 52.8
2 Michael Lorenzen 0.2787 0.1831 0.1481 69.7 17.5 52.1
3 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1330 0.1902 0.3750 187.7 146.9 40.8
4 Chris Heston 0.1384 0.1987 0.3871 182.1 141.2 40.8
5 Jerome Williams 0.2659 0.2009 0.1212 82.6 43.6 39.0
6 Ross Detwiler 0.3031 0.1823 0.0244 81.6 45.2 36.4
7 Madison Bumgarner 0.4145 0.4569 0.5625 124.5 92.6 31.9
8 Bartolo Colon 0.3348 0.3782 0.4242 69.1 38.3 30.8
9 Yordano Ventura 0.3672 0.4172 0.4643 64.0 33.2 30.8
10 Nate Karns 0.1398 0.1939 0.2593 71.3 41.2 30.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tanner Roark 0.4643 0.1583 0.1000 160.3 26.8 133.5
2 Carlos Carrasco 0.1714 0.2518 0.4667 230.9 157.6 73.3
3 Alex Colomé 0.3500 0.1683 0.1860 65.3 8.5 56.8
4 Johnny Cueto 0.5556 0.4727 0.3438 165.2 110.9 54.3
5 Blake Treinen 0.3077 0.1107 0.0333 70.9 21.4 49.5
6 Andrew Chafin 0.2593 0.0792 0.0758 49.7 0.8 48.9
7 Vance Worley 0.3636 0.1876 0.1739 52.3 4.0 48.3
8 Matt Harvey 0.3200 0.3631 0.4483 112.7 65.0 47.8
9 Liam Hendriks 0.2903 0.0881 0.0862 47.8 0.3 47.5
10 Jake Arrieta 0.3103 0.3446 0.6667 328.3 281.0 47.3

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Andrew Cashner 0.5161
0.3604
(125.6)
0.2059
(208.1)
0.3733
(119.9)
0.3478
(144.2)
Jesse Chavez 0.5000
0.1574
(230.5)
0.1707
(186.7)
0.1404
(245.8)
0.1818
(221.2)
Rick Porcello 0.5357
0.3194
(159.8)
0.2500
(172.7)
0.3160
(166.5)
0.3226
(165.2)
Iván Nova 0.6471
0.3557
(120.6)
0.1818
(170.9)
0.3609
(120.8)
0.3500
(127.2)
Corey Kluber 0.5000
0.2797
(195.6)
0.1951
(224.6)
0.3005
(182.3)
0.2581
(224.1)
Nathan Eovaldi 0.1111
0.3444
(156.7)
0.2927
(156.8)
0.3672
(168.2)
0.3214
(134.1)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Rusin 0.1004 0.4167 188.2
2 Robbie Ray 0.2023 0.5217 174.4
3 Zack Greinke 0.2867 0.0938 162.3
4 Shelby Miller 0.3475 0.5152 144.6
5 Matt Garza 0.3333 0.5385 136.9
6 Carlos Carrasco 0.2264 0.4000 127.1
7 Travis Wood 0.3681 0.0741 123.0
8 David Price 0.2925 0.1562 120.5
9 Drew Hutchison 0.3483 0.1667 120.3
10 Colby Lewis 0.4097 0.2727 117.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Shelby Miller 0.2143 0.5152 214.6
2 Anthony DeSclafani 0.1250 0.4194 190.7
3 Matt Garza 0.2222 0.5385 176.4
4 Max Scherzer 0.1282 0.3636 165.5
5 Eddie Butler 0.1429 0.6250 159.4
6 Alfredo Simon 0.1429 0.3871 158.1
7 Garrett Richards 0.1429 0.3750 156.4
8 Robbie Ray 0.1852 0.5217 155.4
9 Kendall Graveman 0.0769 0.4286 150.7
10 Chris Heston 0.1111 0.3548 143.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Rusin 0.0494 0.4167 221.9
2 Robbie Ray 0.1296 0.5217 217.1
3 Zack Greinke 0.3064 0.0938 174.1
4 Chris Heston 0.1622 0.3548 148.3
5 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1403 0.3125 141.1
6 James Shields 0.3729 0.2121 133.0
7 Josh Collmenter 0.4079 0.1364 132.4
8 Erasmo Ramírez 0.3781 0.1765 130.1
9 Kyle Lobstein 0.1681 0.6154 127.0
10 Julio Teheran 0.3984 0.2424 126.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Shelby Miller 0.3000 0.5152 194.5
2 Carlos Carrasco 0.1714 0.4000 174.9
3 Matt Garza 0.2917 0.5385 171.7
4 Max Scherzer 0.1935 0.3636 162.8
5 Alex Wood 0.2000 0.3750 149.0
6 Garrett Richards 0.2143 0.3750 148.5
7 Colby Lewis 0.4444 0.2727 138.4
8 Zack Greinke 0.2667 0.0938 136.5
9 Chris Sale 0.2143 0.3548 129.4
10 Drew Hutchison 0.3704 0.1667 128.0

Most Unique Misses for Loss Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alfredo Simon 0.1429 0.3792 0.3871 158.1 6.9 151.2
2 Anthony DeSclafani 0.1250 0.3378 0.4194 190.7 64.4 126.3
3 Chris Tillman 0.1707 0.3455 0.3548 98.4 7.3 91.1
4 Andrew Cashner 0.2059 0.3604 0.5161 208.1 125.6 82.5
5 Matt Shoemaker 0.1389 0.3227 0.4000 119.3 44.3 75.0
6 Shelby Miller 0.2143 0.3475 0.5152 214.6 144.6 70.0
7 Sean O'Sullivan 0.1429 0.4061 0.4615 87.7 18.3 69.3
8 Kendall Graveman 0.0769 0.2623 0.4286 150.7 83.7 67.0
9 Trevor Bauer 0.2051 0.3436 0.3871 97.2 32.7 64.4
10 Aaron Harang 0.2821 0.4201 0.5172 137.5 73.1 64.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ross Detwiler 0.3888 0.2099 0.1220 75.0 25.2 49.9
2 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1403 0.1953 0.3125 141.1 93.1 48.0
3 Cole Hamels 0.3880 0.3283 0.2500 116.0 68.5 47.5
4 Michael Wacha 0.3222 0.2583 0.2333 63.0 18.7 44.3
5 Chris Heston 0.1622 0.2151 0.3548 148.3 104.6 43.7
6 Robbie Ray 0.1296 0.2023 0.5217 217.1 174.4 42.7
7 Ryan Madson 0.2313 0.0000 0.0294 48.5 7.4 41.1
8 Ryan Vogelsong 0.2419 0.2940 0.3333 58.4 23.8 34.6
9 Chris Rusin 0.0494 0.1004 0.4167 221.9 188.2 33.7
10 Julio Teheran 0.3984 0.3550 0.2424 126.2 94.4 31.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Young 0.3913 0.1982 0.1765 101.9 10.6 91.3
2 Alex Colomé 0.4000 0.1933 0.1163 124.6 35.0 89.7
3 Nate Karns 0.3462 0.2125 0.1852 93.1 16.6 76.5
4 Andrew Chafin 0.3333 0.0932 0.0152 94.0 23.7 70.3
5 Alex Wood 0.2000 0.2709 0.3750 149.0 83.8 65.2
6 Jose Alvarez 0.3000 0.0911 0.0469 68.5 12.4 56.2
7 Matt Harvey 0.2000 0.2635 0.2759 65.6 9.7 55.9
8 Garrett Richards 0.2143 0.2664 0.3750 148.5 94.4 54.1
9 Michael Lorenzen 0.1667 0.2606 0.3333 91.5 37.7 53.8
10 Edwin Jackson 0.4444 0.1994 0.0638 84.3 30.8 53.5

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Andrew Miller 0.6000
0.1705
(103.9)
0.0204
(147.1)
0.1831
(100.9)
0.0000
(140.5)
Jeurys Familia 0.5658
0.1045
(139.9)
0.0652
(159.8)
0.1036
(140.2)
0.0000
(165.4)
Francisco Rodríguez 0.6333
0.3366
(62.5)
0.3265
(70.2)
0.3477
(60.2)
0.0000
(130.6)
Shawn Tolleson 0.4795
0.0480
(126.4)
0.0244
(141.1)
0.0462
(127.1)
0.0000
(134.3)
Brad Ziegler 0.4545
0.0416
(106.7)
0.0577
(109.2)
0.0431
(106.4)
0.0000
(112.0)
Brad Boxberger 0.5942
0.1401
(121.1)
0.0488
(152.8)
0.1292
(124.1)
0.0000
(153.2)
AJ Ramos 0.4507
0.0185
(117.7)
0.0208
(124.2)
0.0182
(117.9)
0.0000
(116.9)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joaquín Benoit 0.5148 0.0299 125.0
2 Steve Cishek 0.5126 0.0678 109.8
3 Addison Reed 0.4925 0.0727 102.9
4 Dellin Betances 0.4109 0.1216 98.4
5 John Axford 0.0385 0.4167 92.7
6 Jason Grilli 0.0353 0.6667 87.4
7 Fernando Rodney 0.5192 0.2353 80.6
8 Roberto Osuna 0.0000 0.2941 77.8
9 Brett Cecil 0.3931 0.0794 68.7
10 Neftalí Feliz 0.5066 0.2083 64.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Rosenthal 0.2830 0.7059 126.6
2 Mark Melancon 0.2692 0.6538 118.1
3 Luke Gregerson 0.0556 0.4844 106.9
4 Cody Allen 0.1636 0.4857 97.4
5 Drew Storen 0.1020 0.5000 94.9
6 Santiago Casilla 0.2045 0.5672 93.0
7 David Robertson 0.2653 0.5667 79.9
8 Addison Reed 0.4167 0.0727 78.5
9 Roberto Osuna 0.0294 0.2941 76.7
10 Steve Cishek 0.4000 0.0678 76.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joaquín Benoit 0.5246 0.0299 127.4
2 Steve Cishek 0.5138 0.0678 110.1
3 Addison Reed 0.4954 0.0727 103.5
4 John Axford 0.0400 0.4167 92.4
5 Jason Grilli 0.0369 0.6667 87.2
6 Dellin Betances 0.3677 0.1216 84.0
7 Fernando Rodney 0.5169 0.2353 79.9
8 Roberto Osuna 0.0000 0.2941 77.8
9 Brett Cecil 0.4000 0.0794 70.1
10 Neftalí Feliz 0.5123 0.2083 65.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0000 0.7059 194.3
2 Mark Melancon 0.0000 0.6538 183.1
3 Huston Street 0.0000 0.6452 157.2
4 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.6393 145.9
5 Zack Britton 0.0000 0.5625 135.0
6 David Robertson 0.0000 0.5667 134.5
7 Aroldis Chapman 0.0000 0.5077 133.1
8 Santiago Casilla 0.0000 0.5672 131.4
9 Cody Allen 0.0000 0.4857 130.7
10 Kenley Jansen 0.0000 0.6667 127.6

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cody Allen 0.1636 0.4896 0.4857 97.4 3.2 94.2
2 Drew Storen 0.1020 0.4645 0.5000 94.9 6.4 88.5
3 Mark Melancon 0.2692 0.5352 0.6538 118.1 32.6 85.5
4 Trevor Rosenthal 0.2830 0.5398 0.7059 126.6 45.6 81.1
5 David Robertson 0.2653 0.5196 0.5667 79.9 10.0 70.0
6 Santiago Casilla 0.2045 0.4536 0.5672 93.0 26.0 67.0
7 Luke Gregerson 0.0556 0.3027 0.4844 106.9 41.7 65.2
8 Zack Britton 0.3250 0.5467 0.5625 64.7 2.2 62.6
9 Casey Janssen 0.3750 0.0000 0.0000 59.2 1.2 58.0
10 Sergio Romo 0.3333 0.0911 0.0286 65.9 16.0 49.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Rodón 0.0294 0.0000 0.0000 22.1 4.4 17.7
2 Raisel Iglesias 0.0294 0.0000 0.0000 14.4 2.8 11.5
3 Cody Allen 0.5062 0.4896 0.4857 7.8 3.2 4.7
4 Trevor Rosenthal 0.5262 0.5398 0.7059 49.6 45.6 4.0
5 J.P. Howell 0.1569 0.1390 0.0154 28.2 24.9 3.3
6 Radhames Liz 0.0294 0.0000 0.0000 3.9 0.8 3.1
7 Brad Boxberger 0.1292 0.1401 0.5942 124.1 121.1 3.0
8 Jake McGee 0.3769 0.3562 0.1538 33.8 30.8 3.0
9 Adam Loewen 0.0294 0.0000 0.0000 3.4 0.7 2.7
10 Joaquín Benoit 0.5246 0.5148 0.0299 127.4 125.0 2.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mark Melancon 0.0000 0.5352 0.6538 183.1 32.6 150.5
2 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0000 0.5398 0.7059 194.3 45.6 148.7
3 Zack Britton 0.0000 0.5467 0.5625 135.0 2.2 132.8
4 Cody Allen 0.0000 0.4896 0.4857 130.7 3.2 127.5
5 David Robertson 0.0000 0.5196 0.5667 134.5 10.0 124.5
6 Aroldis Chapman 0.0000 0.5328 0.5077 133.1 9.0 124.1
7 Huston Street 0.0000 0.4842 0.6452 157.2 39.2 118.0
8 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.5073 0.6393 145.9 29.8 116.1
9 Glen Perkins 0.0000 0.5087 0.5333 120.1 4.1 115.9
10 Santiago Casilla 0.0000 0.4536 0.5672 131.4 26.0 105.4

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Dellin Betances 0.3784
0.1663
(71.3)
0.2273
(61.7)
0.1488
(75.3)
0.0000
(108.6)
Tony Watson 0.5325
0.2512
(83.2)
0.3214
(72.0)
0.2580
(79.6)
0.0000
(141.0)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Estrada 0.3875 0.0000 279.0
2 Tanner Roark 0.4020 0.1250 128.1
3 Brad Hand 0.3216 0.0526 108.6
4 Yusmeiro Petit 0.3049 0.0000 95.5
5 Aaron Sanchez 0.0098 0.2439 90.0
6 Joaquín Benoit 0.0690 0.4179 89.3
7 J.R. Graham 0.3172 0.0000 89.0
8 Keone Kela 0.0000 0.3235 79.3
9 Chris Young 0.2178 0.0588 78.1
10 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0975 0.0000 75.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Martinez 0.2045 0.0323 103.8
2 Jim Johnson 0.0444 0.3472 98.2
3 Sergio Romo 0.1458 0.4857 86.2
4 Daniel Hudson 0.1053 0.3281 74.7
5 Keone Kela 0.0524 0.3235 74.3
6 Sam Dyson 0.0769 0.2800 73.5
7 Drew Pomeranz 0.0667 0.2264 69.4
8 Ryan Madson 0.0524 0.2941 68.6
9 Jeremy Jeffress 0.1154 0.3194 68.1
10 Zach Duke 0.1395 0.3662 66.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Estrada 0.2567 0.0000 188.0
2 Joaquín Benoit 0.0704 0.4179 87.6
3 Aaron Sanchez 0.0114 0.2439 87.3
4 Keone Kela 0.0000 0.3235 78.0
5 Alex Colomé 0.0225 0.1860 73.5
6 Justin De Fratus 0.2165 0.0164 73.4
7 Drew Pomeranz 0.0189 0.2264 73.1
8 Trevor May 0.0000 0.1458 70.4
9 Jeurys Familia 0.2385 0.0132 70.2
10 Yusmeiro Petit 0.2173 0.0000 69.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joe Smith 0.0000 0.4571 110.0
2 Sergio Romo 0.0000 0.4857 99.9
3 Joaquín Benoit 0.0000 0.4179 93.1
4 Kevin Siegrist 0.0000 0.3457 91.8
5 Jim Johnson 0.0000 0.3472 86.1
6 Pedro Strop 0.0000 0.3684 85.6
7 Pat Neshek 0.0000 0.4242 83.2
8 Justin Wilson 0.0000 0.3919 83.1
9 Zach Duke 0.0000 0.3662 80.3
10 Daniel Hudson 0.0000 0.3281 80.3

Most Unique Misses for Hold Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Martinez 0.2045 0.0000 0.0323 103.8 26.4 77.4
2 Jim Johnson 0.0444 0.2654 0.3472 98.2 24.6 73.6
3 Sam Dyson 0.0769 0.2817 0.2800 73.5 0.3 73.2
4 Daniel Hudson 0.1053 0.3747 0.3281 74.7 12.7 62.0
5 Taijuan Walker 0.1154 0.0000 0.0000 56.9 1.9 55.0
6 Chris Heston 0.1111 0.0000 0.0000 56.9 2.0 54.9
7 Garrett Richards 0.0952 0.0000 0.0000 52.3 2.3 50.0
8 Tyler Clippard 0.3704 0.1785 0.1159 66.1 18.0 48.1
9 Jimmy Nelson 0.1000 0.0000 0.0000 49.0 2.0 47.0
10 Jeremy Jeffress 0.1154 0.2472 0.3194 68.1 21.4 46.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Rodón 0.0524 0.0000 0.0000 33.4 1.6 31.8
2 Raisel Iglesias 0.0524 0.0000 0.0000 21.8 1.1 20.7
3 Andrew Chafin 0.1597 0.2709 0.2424 24.5 7.9 16.6
4 Daniel Hudson 0.2270 0.3747 0.3281 28.5 12.7 15.8
5 Sam Dyson 0.2324 0.2817 0.2800 13.9 0.3 13.6
6 Randy Choate 0.2483 0.1782 0.1127 16.2 7.4 8.8
7 Brian Matusz 0.2351 0.2106 0.0345 41.9 35.7 6.2
8 Enny Romero 0.0707 0.1190 0.1304 8.0 2.0 6.0
9 J.P. Howell 0.2171 0.1924 0.1538 12.5 6.8 5.7
10 Radhames Liz 0.0524 0.0000 0.0000 5.8 0.3 5.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Sam Dyson 0.0000 0.2817 0.2800 70.7 0.3 70.3
2 Daniel Hudson 0.0000 0.3747 0.3281 80.3 12.7 67.5
3 Kelvin Herrera 0.0000 0.2724 0.2917 68.7 6.3 62.5
4 Jared Hughes 0.0000 0.3120 0.2895 67.6 5.6 62.0
5 Jim Johnson 0.0000 0.2654 0.3472 86.1 24.6 61.5
6 Brad Brach 0.0000 0.2512 0.2419 61.8 2.1 59.6
7 Tony Watson 0.0000 0.2512 0.5325 141.0 83.2 57.8
8 Seth Maness 0.0000 0.2657 0.2632 57.2 0.1 57.1
9 Bryan Morris 0.0000 0.2532 0.2687 60.2 5.0 55.2
10 Jeremy Jeffress 0.0000 0.2472 0.3194 76.4 21.4 55.1

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Zack Greinke 1.6572
3.0446
(1251.1)
3.0457
(1397.4)
3.0256
(1279.6)
3.0638
(1227.0)
Jeremy Guthrie 5.9461
4.4078
(957.3)
4.1461
(1016.5)
4.4238
(911.5)
4.3916
(999.7)
Kyle Lohse 5.8490
4.1063
(1094.6)
3.4516
(1415.3)
4.3017
(929.6)
3.9130
(1254.9)
Bud Norris 6.7229
4.1317
(940.5)
3.9598
(940.2)
4.0549
(949.5)
4.2109
(928.6)
Matt Garza 5.6300
3.9595
(1048.2)
3.7548
(1069.6)
4.0978
(920.9)
3.8217
(1171.8)
Jake Arrieta 1.7686
3.6222
(1696.7)
3.6200
(1844.9)
3.5710
(1698.2)
3.6747
(1700.9)
Shane Greene 6.8845
4.4456
(873.6)
3.7576
(1065.9)
4.4149
(865.4)
4.4776
(879.5)
Dallas Keuchel 2.4828
3.7637
(1255.0)
3.8364
(1478.4)
3.7253
(1268.1)
3.8028
(1247.1)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 5.6547 3.2228 1314.8
2 Odrisamer Despaigne 3.8956 5.8011 989.4
3 Cody Anderson 5.6279 3.0547 974.5
4 David Price 3.4497 2.4508 972.8
5 Edinson Volquez 4.4997 3.5491 890.2
6 Drew Hutchison 4.1391 5.5676 884.4
7 Aníbal Sánchez 3.5507 4.9873 884.3
8 Cory Mazzoni 4.0457 20.7692 881.2
9 Jeff Samardzija 3.9150 4.9626 865.4
10 Kyle Kendrick 4.8810 6.3232 846.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alfredo Simon 3.4034 5.0535 1132.4
2 John Lackey 3.7306 2.7661 1105.4
3 Odrisamer Despaigne 3.5570 5.8011 1080.3
4 Gerrit Cole 3.6225 2.5962 1077.9
5 Kyle Kendrick 4.3840 6.3232 1050.5
6 David Buchanan 3.7934 6.9911 1027.9
7 Jeff Samardzija 3.5887 4.9626 1005.3
8 David Price 3.2938 2.4508 987.6
9 Carlos Martinez 4.0076 3.0056 959.8
10 Ross Detwiler 3.8272 7.2514 908.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 5.2569 3.2228 1135.5
2 Shelby Miller 4.0562 3.0244 1015.9
3 Yovani Gallardo 4.5238 3.4177 995.7
4 Jacob deGrom 3.6968 2.5445 977.6
5 Gerrit Cole 3.5660 2.5962 931.3
6 Sonny Gray 3.6727 2.7260 910.9
7 Drew Hutchison 4.0565 5.5676 904.1
8 Cory Mazzoni 3.8214 20.7692 890.3
9 Edinson Volquez 4.4381 3.5491 882.8
10 Kyle Kendrick 4.7756 6.3232 879.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 6.0772 3.2228 1509.7
2 Cody Anderson 6.3391 3.0547 1216.7
3 Odrisamer Despaigne 3.6516 5.8011 1149.0
4 David Price 3.6735 2.4508 1129.1
5 Aníbal Sánchez 3.4342 4.9873 992.7
6 Marco Estrada 4.4366 3.1326 980.9
7 Jeff Samardzija 3.8969 4.9626 925.3
8 Edinson Volquez 4.5632 3.5491 903.6
9 Matthew Boyd 4.0233 7.5349 872.6
10 Cory Mazzoni 4.2767 20.7692 871.5

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alfredo Simon 3.4034 4.7723 5.0535 1132.4 151.3 981.0
2 Max Scherzer 3.2598 2.7990 2.7945 660.4 91.0 569.4
3 David Hale 3.4433 5.2263 6.0894 822.4 265.2 557.2
4 Miguel González 3.5179 4.4336 4.9147 701.4 239.1 462.3
5 Mike Bolsinger 4.4086 3.6295 3.6220 492.0 48.6 443.5
6 Michael Pineda 2.9730 3.7394 4.3693 752.9 356.2 396.7
7 Noah Syndergaard 4.0233 3.5428 3.2400 634.6 240.9 393.7
8 Aroldis Chapman 2.8934 1.6714 1.6281 426.6 38.9 387.7
9 Madison Bumgarner 3.1374 2.8900 2.9267 417.0 52.1 364.9
10 Danny Salazar 3.9480 3.6518 3.4541 577.7 222.8 354.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Rusin 3.8520 4.6283 5.3316 790.1 360.4 429.7
2 Shelby Miller 4.0562 3.8059 3.0244 1015.9 755.2 260.7
3 Tyson Ross 3.5959 3.3355 3.2602 399.3 141.5 257.9
4 Yovani Gallardo 4.5238 4.2987 3.4177 995.7 775.2 220.5
5 Adam Warren 4.1621 3.8131 3.2893 545.9 331.3 214.6
6 Chris Archer 3.8661 3.6820 3.2264 685.0 479.3 205.7
7 Keyvius Sampson 4.3236 5.1569 6.5350 517.5 321.7 195.9
8 Max Scherzer 2.9546 2.7990 2.7945 278.3 91.0 187.4
9 Jacob deGrom 3.6968 3.5017 2.5445 977.6 791.4 186.2
10 Aaron Brooks 3.7883 4.5611 6.6687 682.7 502.7 180.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 James Shields 2.9897 3.2644 3.9143 753.1 475.8 277.3
2 Garrett Richards 3.0176 3.2814 3.6463 501.5 232.1 269.4
3 Julio Teheran 3.2206 3.4920 4.0365 646.6 377.6 269.0
4 Mike Bolsinger 4.2177 3.6295 3.6220 300.4 48.6 251.8
5 Cody Anderson 6.3391 5.6279 3.0547 1216.7 974.5 242.2
6 Andrew Cashner 3.2739 3.5270 4.3375 815.8 574.0 241.8
7 Robbie Ray 5.0119 4.5332 3.5248 837.1 602.2 234.9
8 Johnny Cueto 2.8792 3.0900 3.4387 442.2 218.3 223.9
9 Jose Alvarez 5.3415 4.5139 3.4925 537.1 316.4 220.7
10 Jered Weaver 3.6746 3.9345 4.6415 614.2 408.4 205.8

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Andrew Cashner 1.4404
1.2171
(172.7)
1.1810
(181.1)
1.2465
(138.7)
1.1878
(204.3)
David Buchanan 1.8482
1.3976
(155.2)
1.2893
(184.2)
1.3980
(150.5)
1.3973
(158.8)
Zack Greinke 0.8443
1.1211
(240.5)
1.1788
(310.8)
1.1199
(250.3)
1.1223
(233.1)
Ross Detwiler 2.0229
1.4161
(172.3)
1.3443
(185.6)
1.4486
(159.2)
1.3834
(184.6)
Jacob deGrom 0.9791
1.2225
(189.2)
1.2073
(197.1)
1.2286
(203.4)
1.2163
(177.0)
Matt Garza 1.5673
1.2603
(198.8)
1.2195
(208.8)
1.2893
(170.9)
1.2314
(224.7)
Jake Arrieta 0.8646
1.2526
(344.9)
1.1650
(291.2)
1.2290
(335.6)
1.2767
(357.2)
Eric O'Flaherty 2.1667
1.2732
(140.7)
1.1989
(148.4)
1.3086
(133.0)
1.2378
(147.9)
Dallas Keuchel 1.0172
1.2904
(256.6)
1.3134
(301.0)
1.3078
(284.1)
1.2728
(231.4)
Erasmo Ramírez 1.1327
1.3477
(148.9)
1.3772
(185.7)
1.3344
(148.6)
1.3614
(151.3)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.6821 1.1857 262.5
2 Raisel Iglesias 1.5920 1.1434 180.6
3 Sonny Gray 1.2778 1.0817 170.0
4 Cody Anderson 1.5366 1.1058 160.3
5 Roberto Osuna 1.4947 0.9187 158.4
6 Chris Archer 1.2915 1.1368 141.7
7 James Shields 1.1617 1.3344 141.2
8 Max Scherzer 1.0662 0.9184 140.5
9 Chris Young 1.3556 1.0865 138.8
10 Kyle Lohse 1.2503 1.4639 136.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Max Scherzer 1.1496 0.9184 238.7
2 Noah Syndergaard 1.3066 1.0467 177.4
3 Colby Lewis 1.4004 1.2362 170.9
4 Kyle Lohse 1.1734 1.4639 170.4
5 Michael Lorenzen 1.3066 1.6588 163.8
6 Danny Salazar 1.3079 1.1297 160.8
7 Alfredo Simon 1.2185 1.4385 152.3
8 Eddie Butler 1.3714 1.8151 151.5
9 Corey Kluber 1.1894 1.0541 150.2
10 Gerrit Cole 1.2283 1.0913 142.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.6007 1.1857 226.9
2 Sonny Gray 1.2978 1.0817 197.3
3 Chris Rusin 1.2829 1.6025 177.2
4 Roberto Osuna 1.4947 0.9187 161.9
5 Max Scherzer 1.0750 0.9184 160.1
6 Chris Archer 1.2947 1.1368 155.6
7 Chris Young 1.3422 1.0865 138.5
8 Cody Anderson 1.4605 1.1058 137.2
9 Drew Hutchison 1.2589 1.4834 134.9
10 Marco Estrada 1.2080 1.0442 134.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.7685 1.1857 302.3
2 Cody Anderson 1.6174 1.1058 186.2
3 James Shields 1.1285 1.3344 178.4
4 Raisel Iglesias 1.5920 1.1434 176.6
5 Kyle Lohse 1.2064 1.4639 172.3
6 Colby Lewis 1.4158 1.2362 153.4
7 Julio Teheran 1.1324 1.3056 147.4
8 Chris Bassitt 1.6632 1.2558 146.5
9 Sonny Gray 1.2576 1.0817 144.9
10 Jeremy Guthrie 1.3373 1.5506 142.6

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alfredo Simon 1.2185 1.4261 1.4385 152.3 3.2 149.1
2 Max Scherzer 1.1496 1.0662 0.9184 238.7 140.5 98.2
3 Corey Kluber 1.1894 1.1066 1.0541 150.2 54.0 96.2
4 Danny Salazar 1.3079 1.2155 1.1297 160.8 71.3 89.5
5 Noah Syndergaard 1.3066 1.2037 1.0467 177.4 99.8 77.6
6 Zack Greinke 1.1788 1.1211 0.8443 310.8 240.5 70.4
7 Jon Lester 1.2263 1.1673 1.1220 114.8 44.6 70.2
8 Michael Pineda 1.0811 1.2019 1.2261 74.0 10.5 63.5
9 Liam Hendriks 1.4229 1.2155 1.0825 97.8 36.9 60.9
10 Keyvius Sampson 1.3066 1.5566 1.7771 109.5 53.2 56.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Rusin 1.2829 1.3941 1.6025 177.2 118.7 58.4
2 Mike Bolsinger 1.1615 1.2756 1.3628 83.9 36.7 47.2
3 Shelby Miller 1.3153 1.2796 1.2468 77.3 35.5 41.8
4 Johnny Cueto 1.1579 1.1194 1.1321 40.8 3.6 37.2
5 Adam Warren 1.3336 1.2775 1.1650 101.4 64.6 36.8
6 Kyle Gibson 1.4151 1.3845 1.2894 120.8 85.0 35.7
7 Jered Weaver 1.2849 1.2459 1.2327 49.2 14.5 34.7
8 Adam Loewen 1.3066 1.6804 1.9138 54.5 20.9 33.6
9 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.1680 1.1221 1.0643 64.5 34.2 30.3
10 R.A. Dickey 1.3001 1.2790 1.1944 112.3 82.3 30.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Bassitt 1.6632 1.5292 1.2558 146.5 101.8 44.7
2 Julio Teheran 1.1324 1.1747 1.3056 147.4 103.3 44.1
3 Johnny Cueto 1.0811 1.1194 1.1321 45.5 3.6 41.9
4 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.7685 1.6821 1.1857 302.3 262.5 39.7
5 Garrett Richards 1.1765 1.2119 1.2395 55.9 16.5 39.3
6 James Shields 1.1285 1.1617 1.3344 178.4 141.2 37.2
7 Kyle Lohse 1.2064 1.2503 1.4639 172.3 136.4 35.8
8 Matt Marksberry 1.3066 1.6140 1.6286 34.9 0.7 34.3
9 Robbie Ray 1.4956 1.4227 1.3316 88.6 54.3 34.3
10 Matt Shoemaker 1.1386 1.1883 1.2562 67.8 33.8 34.0