2016 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2016, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Eduardo Núñez 595
214
(381.0)
323
(272.0)
159
(436.0)
269
(326.0)
Michael Saunders 558
272
(286.4)
244
(314.0)
266
(291.9)
277
(281.0)
Dee Strange-Gordon 346
620
(274.1)
595
(249.0)
634
(288.2)
606
(260.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Burns 615 332 282.6
2 Nomar Mazara 296 568 271.6
3 Jonathan Villar 408 679 271.0
4 Tommy Joseph 94 347 253.5
5 Prince Fielder 619 370 248.9
6 Michael Conforto 572 348 224.1
7 Dae-Ho Lee 100 317 217.0
8 Trevor Plouffe 558 344 214.5
9 Matt Duffy 580 366 214.4
10 Kolten Wong 572 361 211.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nomar Mazara 100 568 468.0
2 Corey Seager 267 687 420.0
3 Jonathan Villar 300 679 379.0
4 Adam Duvall 245 608 363.0
5 Aledmys Díaz 100 460 360.0
6 Tim Anderson 100 431 331.0
7 Trevor Story 100 415 315.0
8 Stephen Piscotty 336 649 313.0
9 Wil Myers 369 676 307.0
10 Cheslor Cuthbert 232 510 278.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nomar Mazara 20 568 548.1
2 Hernán Pérez 1 430 429.0
3 Cheslor Cuthbert 120 510 390.5
4 Robbie Grossman 1 389 388.0
5 Aledmys Díaz 81 460 378.9
6 James Loney 1 366 365.0
7 Jonathan Villar 320 679 359.0
8 Tim Anderson 80 431 350.5
9 Tommy Joseph 1 347 346.0
10 José Ramírez 286 618 332.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Turner 345 622 277.0
2 Billy Burns 599 332 267.0
3 Michael Conforto 610 348 262.0
4 George Springer 503 744 241.0
5 Jhonny Peralta 549 313 236.0
6 Wil Myers 443 676 233.0
7 Prince Fielder 603 370 233.0
8 Hyun Soo Kim 577 346 231.0
9 Trevor Plouffe 569 344 225.0
10 Wilmer Flores 556 335 221.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Corey Seager 267 608 687 420.0 79.0 341.0
2 Trevor Story 100 438 415 315.0 22.6 292.4
3 Hyun Soo Kim 100 340 346 246.0 5.9 240.1
4 Francisco Lindor 434 662 684 250.0 22.4 227.6
5 Stephen Piscotty 336 561 649 313.0 88.0 225.0
6 Tyler Naquin 100 317 365 265.0 48.4 216.6
7 Whit Merrifield 100 299 332 232.0 33.4 198.6
8 Aledmys Díaz 100 298 460 360.0 162.4 197.6
9 Nomar Mazara 100 296 568 468.0 271.6 196.4
10 Tim Anderson 100 292 431 331.0 138.8 192.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Nomar Mazara 20 296 568 548.1 271.6 276.6
2 Robbie Grossman 1 265 389 388.0 124.0 264.0
3 James Loney 1 250 366 365.0 116.5 248.5
4 Hyun Soo Kim 103 340 346 242.8 5.9 236.9
5 Whit Merrifield 66 299 332 265.7 33.4 232.3
6 Ryan Schimpf 1 230 330 329.0 100.0 229.0
7 Hernán Pérez 1 230 430 429.0 200.5 228.5
8 Brandon Drury 197 421 499 302.2 77.6 224.6
9 Aledmys Díaz 81 298 460 378.9 162.4 216.5
10 Tim Anderson 80 292 431 350.5 138.8 211.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Hyun Soo Kim 577 340 346 231.0 5.9 225.1
2 Whit Merrifield 531 299 332 199.0 33.4 165.6
3 Tyler Saladino 463 326 319 144.0 7.1 136.9
4 Trea Turner 483 357 324 159.0 33.1 125.9
5 Jake Marisnick 492 381 311 181.0 69.9 111.1
6 Ezequiel Carrera 439 333 310 129.0 22.6 106.4
7 Trevor Story 543 438 415 128.0 22.6 105.4
8 Wilmer Flores 556 454 335 221.0 118.5 102.5
9 Brock Holt 540 454 324 216.0 130.4 85.6
10 Darwin Barney 425 270 306 119.0 35.8 83.2

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Brian Dozier 0.0868
0.0478
(20.9)
0.0485
(20.2)
0.0429
(24.1)
0.0526
(17.8)
Trevor Story 0.1102
0.0478
(22.3)
0.0488
(21.7)
0.0423
(24.5)
0.0537
(20.0)
Paul Goldschmidt 0.0548
0.0727
(18.7)
0.0684
(16.0)
0.0734
(19.4)
0.0720
(18.0)
Robinson Canó 0.0696
0.0351
(18.5)
0.0371
(16.8)
0.0362
(17.5)
0.0340
(19.5)
Carlos González 0.0548
0.0787
(20.6)
0.0769
(19.7)
0.0748
(18.3)
0.0826
(22.8)
Brad Miller 0.0746
0.0344
(19.0)
0.0342
(18.9)
0.0342
(18.9)
0.0345
(19.1)
Todd Frazier 0.0920
0.0575
(17.1)
0.0587
(16.1)
0.0580
(16.6)
0.0571
(17.7)
Jedd Gyorko 0.0984
0.0490
(17.8)
0.0453
(19.3)
0.0496
(17.4)
0.0484
(18.2)
Khris Davis 0.1066
0.0591
(23.7)
0.0690
(17.4)
0.0620
(21.7)
0.0561
(25.7)
José Abreu 0.0492
0.0678
(18.9)
0.0644
(16.9)
0.0687
(19.8)
0.0668
(18.0)
Jake Lamb 0.0777
0.0345
(20.5)
0.0319
(21.9)
0.0366
(19.1)
0.0324
(22.0)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryce Harper 0.0894 0.0602 23.8
2 Mark Reynolds 0.0841 0.0495 19.1
3 Jason Heyward 0.0382 0.0159 18.4
4 Mike Trout 0.0871 0.0695 17.9
5 George Springer 0.0766 0.0621 17.3
6 Sean Rodríguez 0.0312 0.0891 16.8
7 Mark Trumbo 0.0735 0.1061 15.9
8 Brett Gardner 0.0317 0.0156 15.7
9 Yasmani Grandal 0.0558 0.0982 15.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mark Trumbo 0.0580 0.1061 26.1
2 Yasmany Tomás 0.0305 0.0785 21.9
3 Ryan Schimpf 0.0488 0.1149 18.9
4 Freddie Freeman 0.0458 0.0804 17.7
5 Yasmani Grandal 0.0510 0.0982 17.4
6 Ryan Howard 0.0588 0.1136 16.6
7 Whit Merrifield 0.0488 0.0083 16.4
8 Brett Gardner 0.0322 0.0156 16.3
9 Paulo Orlando 0.0377 0.0139 15.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryce Harper 0.0848 0.0602 21.1
2 Jason Heyward 0.0380 0.0159 18.4
3 Mike Trout 0.0875 0.0695 18.4
4 Mark Trumbo 0.0697 0.1061 18.3
5 Yasmany Tomás 0.0376 0.0785 17.9
6 Yasmani Grandal 0.0519 0.0982 17.0
7 Ryan Schimpf 0.0564 0.1149 16.3
8 Javier Báez 0.0716 0.0443 16.3
9 Sean Rodríguez 0.0336 0.0891 15.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryce Harper 0.0942 0.0602 26.6
2 Mark Reynolds 0.0947 0.0495 23.6
3 George Springer 0.0804 0.0621 19.8
4 Jason Heyward 0.0385 0.0159 18.3
5 Sean Rodríguez 0.0287 0.0891 17.8
6 Carlos Correa 0.0635 0.0454 17.5
7 Mike Trout 0.0867 0.0695 17.3
8 Ian Kinsler 0.0229 0.0553 16.4
9 J.D. Martinez 0.0873 0.0653 15.7

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Whit Merrifield 0.0488 0.0125 0.0083 16.4 4.3 12.2
2 Adonis García 0.0493 0.0285 0.0318 14.9 3.0 11.9
3 Tim Anderson 0.0488 0.0224 0.0300 12.0 0.5 11.5
4 Adam Duvall 0.0545 0.0738 0.0831 11.9 0.4 11.5
5 Kris Bryant 0.0583 0.0810 0.0863 13.3 2.4 10.8
6 Mark Trumbo 0.0580 0.0735 0.1061 26.1 15.9 10.1
7 Travis Jankowski 0.0333 0.0081 0.0084 13.0 3.2 9.8
8 Paulo Orlando 0.0377 0.0184 0.0139 15.9 6.4 9.5
9 Wil Myers 0.0400 0.0529 0.0631 9.5 1.0 8.5
10 Chris Carter 0.0903 0.1034 0.1161 10.9 2.6 8.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 David Ortiz 0.0644 0.0725 0.0830 6.0 1.1 4.9
2 Brian Dozier 0.0429 0.0478 0.0868 24.1 20.9 3.2
3 Mike Napoli 0.0619 0.0671 0.0924 13.9 10.7 3.2
4 Manny Machado 0.0530 0.0579 0.0705 5.9 2.7 3.2
5 Chris Carter 0.0983 0.1034 0.1161 5.7 2.6 3.1
6 Pedro Álvarez 0.0958 0.0889 0.0909 5.2 2.5 2.7
7 Yasmany Tomás 0.0376 0.0427 0.0785 17.9 15.3 2.7
8 Jacoby Ellsbury 0.0293 0.0255 0.0185 12.4 9.8 2.6
9 Mark Trumbo 0.0697 0.0735 0.1061 18.3 15.9 2.3
10 Nelson Cruz 0.0757 0.0793 0.0984 9.1 6.9 2.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Correa 0.0635 0.0549 0.0454 17.5 12.0 5.4
2 J.D. Martinez 0.0873 0.0776 0.0653 15.7 10.9 4.8
3 Chris Davis 0.1224 0.1150 0.1086 14.8 10.0 4.7
4 Mark Reynolds 0.0947 0.0841 0.0495 23.6 19.1 4.5
5 Nomar Mazara 0.0500 0.0419 0.0487 5.5 1.1 4.4
6 Hanley Ramirez 0.0381 0.0449 0.0693 14.1 9.8 4.4
7 Matt Kemp 0.0432 0.0486 0.0731 14.4 10.6 3.9
8 Xander Bogaerts 0.0240 0.0279 0.0395 5.1 2.1 3.0
9 Bryce Harper 0.0942 0.0894 0.0602 26.6 23.8 2.8
10 David Ortiz 0.0806 0.0725 0.0830 3.8 1.1 2.6

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Bryce Harper 0.1141
0.0318
(57.5)
0.0407
(49.4)
0.0369
(53.0)
0.0269
(61.9)
Paul Goldschmidt 0.1397
0.0802
(48.5)
0.0800
(45.9)
0.0711
(53.5)
0.0894
(43.6)
Rajai Davis 0.3772
0.2665
(59.4)
0.2700
(55.7)
0.2392
(71.9)
0.2941
(46.8)
B.J. Upton 0.2288
0.1414
(52.1)
0.1325
(54.8)
0.1285
(58.0)
0.1548
(46.1)
Wil Myers 0.1687
0.0707
(72.5)
0.0667
(72.6)
0.0679
(73.0)
0.0734
(72.1)
Eduardo Núñez 0.2685
0.1643
(67.5)
0.1370
(81.4)
0.1459
(77.2)
0.1833
(57.4)
Jose Altuve 0.1415
0.2083
(41.2)
0.2083
(44.1)
0.2015
(37.9)
0.2151
(44.5)
Hernán Pérez 0.3579
0.1191
(106.7)
0.0822
(120.9)
0.1068
(111.1)
0.1313
(102.3)
Manny Machado 0.0000
0.0931
(58.3)
0.0728
(47.0)
0.0858
(54.7)
0.1000
(61.6)
Freddy Galvis 0.1417
0.0484
(64.0)
0.0574
(56.0)
0.0491
(62.2)
0.0476
(65.8)
Charlie Blackmon 0.0977
0.1918
(54.4)
0.1842
(52.0)
0.1985
(60.0)
0.1852
(48.8)
Trea Turner 0.3882
0.1621
(76.3)
0.0714
(104.4)
0.1511
(79.2)
0.1739
(73.1)
Starling Marte 0.3287
0.1943
(76.0)
0.1986
(71.6)
0.1732
(86.0)
0.2157
(65.8)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 George Springer 0.1193 0.0441 49.0
2 Tim Anderson 0.2283 0.1075 48.1
3 Carlos Correa 0.1502 0.0726 45.1
4 Jonathan Villar 0.2777 0.3280 40.5
5 Chris Owings 0.1249 0.1981 38.5
6 Derek Norris 0.0329 0.1047 37.1
7 Kevin Kiermaier 0.1265 0.2039 35.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jonathan Villar 0.2090 0.3280 84.5
2 Travis Jankowski 0.0702 0.2752 80.6
3 Jacoby Ellsbury 0.2045 0.1227 47.9
4 Rougned Odor 0.0536 0.1197 45.2
5 Kevin Kiermaier 0.1071 0.2039 42.3
6 Matt Kemp 0.0741 0.0077 41.0
7 Billy Hamilton 0.4052 0.4874 40.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Anderson 0.2402 0.1075 54.1
2 Jonathan Villar 0.2660 0.3280 47.0
3 Mike Trout 0.0764 0.1282 40.2
4 Chris Owings 0.1193 0.1981 40.1
5 George Springer 0.1049 0.0441 39.9
6 Travis Jankowski 0.1841 0.2752 37.7
7 Derek Norris 0.0301 0.1047 37.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.1729 0.0726 58.7
2 George Springer 0.1339 0.0441 58.3
3 Rougned Odor 0.0647 0.1197 41.9
4 Tim Anderson 0.2162 0.1075 41.9
5 DJ LeMahieu 0.1227 0.0524 37.4
6 Marwin Gonzalez 0.0506 0.1111 37.2
7 Chris Owings 0.1304 0.1981 36.9

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Travis Jankowski 0.0702 0.2065 0.2752 80.6 29.9 50.7
2 Jonathan Villar 0.2090 0.2777 0.3280 84.5 40.5 44.0
3 Byron Buxton 0.0678 0.1660 0.1724 36.4 5.2 31.2
4 Trea Turner 0.0714 0.1621 0.3882 104.4 76.3 28.1
5 Nomar Mazara 0.0592 0.0196 0.0000 30.6 5.8 24.7
6 Paulo Orlando 0.0625 0.1260 0.1120 26.6 2.3 24.3
7 Mookie Betts 0.1159 0.1449 0.1390 20.8 2.5 18.3
8 Corey Seager 0.0580 0.0355 0.0167 24.7 6.5 18.1
9 Jacoby Ellsbury 0.2045 0.1797 0.1227 47.9 29.8 18.0
10 Billy Burns 0.1484 0.2058 0.2297 28.8 11.0 17.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Rajai Davis 0.2392 0.2665 0.3772 71.9 59.4 12.5
2 Starling Marte 0.1732 0.1943 0.3287 86.0 76.0 10.0
3 Eduardo Núñez 0.1459 0.1643 0.2685 77.2 67.5 9.7
4 Travis Jankowski 0.1841 0.2065 0.2752 37.7 29.9 7.8
5 Nolan Arenado 0.0322 0.0245 0.0118 9.2 2.4 6.8
6 Jose Iglesias 0.0970 0.0859 0.0560 17.3 10.6 6.8
7 Coco Crisp 0.0867 0.1067 0.0952 7.8 1.1 6.7
8 José Ramírez 0.1789 0.1705 0.1341 23.2 16.7 6.5
9 Jonathan Villar 0.2660 0.2777 0.3280 47.0 40.5 6.5
10 Billy Hamilton 0.4282 0.4437 0.4874 30.6 24.4 6.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Correa 0.1729 0.1502 0.0726 58.7 45.1 13.6
2 Carlos González 0.0762 0.0536 0.0132 32.6 19.7 12.9
3 Jarrod Dyson 0.4328 0.4028 0.3371 28.4 19.0 9.4
4 George Springer 0.1339 0.1193 0.0441 58.3 49.0 9.3
5 Rougned Odor 0.0647 0.0768 0.1197 41.9 33.0 9.0
6 Leonys Martin 0.2277 0.2101 0.1714 25.8 16.9 8.9
7 Coco Crisp 0.1264 0.1067 0.0952 9.8 1.1 8.8
8 Hanley Ramirez 0.0952 0.0796 0.0545 18.1 9.8 8.4
9 Jason Kipnis 0.1220 0.1088 0.0904 13.9 6.3 7.6
10 Javier Báez 0.1622 0.1434 0.1121 17.4 9.9 7.5

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ian Desmond 0.1581
0.1097
(26.6)
0.1117
(26.6)
0.1077
(26.4)
0.1118
(26.9)
Xander Bogaerts 0.1599
0.1180
(23.7)
0.1159
(26.5)
0.1223
(18.8)
0.1137
(28.6)
Charlie Blackmon 0.1732
0.1235
(26.1)
0.1291
(23.7)
0.1326
(18.6)
0.1144
(33.5)
José Abreu 0.0964
0.1340
(32.4)
0.1275
(26.6)
0.1305
(31.6)
0.1375
(33.1)
Jean Segura 0.1470
0.1034
(24.0)
0.1075
(22.4)
0.0982
(25.9)
0.1086
(22.1)
Alcides Escobar 0.0836
0.1080
(22.8)
0.1100
(22.9)
0.1039
(21.7)
0.1121
(23.9)
Ian Kinsler 0.1723
0.1287
(23.5)
0.1348
(20.6)
0.1245
(24.7)
0.1328
(22.4)
DJ LeMahieu 0.1638
0.1076
(30.0)
0.1182
(24.4)
0.1106
(26.5)
0.1046
(33.5)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Heyward 0.1367 0.1030 25.3
2 Nolan Arenado 0.1231 0.1667 24.0
3 Aledmys Díaz 0.1019 0.1543 20.0
4 Erick Aybar 0.1069 0.0741 19.2
5 Bryce Harper 0.1555 0.1340 19.1
6 Trevor Story 0.1069 0.1614 18.9
7 Troy Tulowitzki 0.1240 0.0993 18.3
8 Corey Seager 0.1177 0.1528 17.9
9 Dustin Pedroia 0.1160 0.1504 17.7
10 Mike Napoli 0.1063 0.1426 17.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Troy Tulowitzki 0.1480 0.0993 30.4
2 Kris Bryant 0.1275 0.1731 26.9
3 Nolan Arenado 0.1248 0.1667 24.2
4 Corey Dickerson 0.1382 0.1040 22.6
5 Erick Aybar 0.1159 0.0741 22.5
6 Jose Altuve 0.1150 0.1506 20.4
7 Cameron Maybin 0.1089 0.1662 19.6
8 Dustin Pedroia 0.1154 0.1504 19.5
9 Derek Dietrich 0.1335 0.0947 18.9
10 Carlos Gómez 0.1340 0.0993 18.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Heyward 0.1347 0.1030 25.6
2 Prince Fielder 0.1289 0.0784 22.9
3 Aledmys Díaz 0.0948 0.1543 22.1
4 Corey Seager 0.1110 0.1528 20.9
5 Troy Tulowitzki 0.1256 0.0993 20.6
6 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1486 0.1191 19.2
7 Kris Bryant 0.1359 0.1731 18.0
8 Chase Utley 0.0966 0.1398 18.0
9 Andrew McCutchen 0.1346 0.1200 17.6
10 Bryce Harper 0.1503 0.1340 17.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nolan Arenado 0.1144 0.1667 31.8
2 Dustin Pedroia 0.1071 0.1504 25.6
3 Jason Heyward 0.1387 0.1030 25.0
4 Mike Napoli 0.0979 0.1426 24.6
5 Erick Aybar 0.1203 0.0741 24.2
6 Francisco Lindor 0.1060 0.1447 22.0
7 Bryce Harper 0.1606 0.1340 20.8
8 Trevor Story 0.1050 0.1614 20.7
9 Josh Donaldson 0.1385 0.1743 20.5
10 Derek Dietrich 0.1370 0.0947 20.1

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Troy Tulowitzki 0.1480 0.1240 0.0993 30.4 18.3 12.0
2 Corey Dickerson 0.1382 0.1145 0.1040 22.6 10.7 12.0
3 Adam Duvall 0.1020 0.1191 0.1398 18.6 7.1 11.5
4 George Springer 0.1245 0.1379 0.1559 18.1 6.7 11.4
5 Jose Altuve 0.1150 0.1288 0.1506 20.4 9.2 11.2
6 Nomar Mazara 0.1242 0.1052 0.1039 15.6 5.9 9.7
7 Kris Bryant 0.1275 0.1394 0.1731 26.9 17.3 9.6
8 Rougned Odor 0.1066 0.1189 0.1408 17.1 8.1 9.0
9 Mike Trout 0.1502 0.1600 0.1806 15.9 7.9 8.0
10 Mark Reynolds 0.0991 0.1144 0.1383 14.1 6.6 7.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 David Ortiz 0.1370 0.1179 0.1262 14.0 0.5 13.5
2 Ángel Pagán 0.0894 0.1060 0.1308 16.2 8.6 7.7
3 Miguel Cabrera 0.1418 0.1336 0.1355 12.1 4.8 7.2
4 Victor Martinez 0.1193 0.1099 0.1066 14.8 7.6 7.2
5 Prince Fielder 0.1289 0.1142 0.0784 22.9 16.6 6.3
6 Rajai Davis 0.1043 0.1190 0.1495 16.7 10.6 6.1
7 Wil Myers 0.1137 0.1246 0.1464 14.4 8.7 5.7
8 Freddie Freeman 0.1224 0.1325 0.1472 9.2 3.9 5.3
9 Kurt Suzuki 0.0971 0.0855 0.0912 6.5 1.2 5.2
10 Ichiro Suzuki 0.0790 0.0956 0.1315 15.0 9.8 5.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 David Ortiz 0.0989 0.1179 0.1262 13.0 0.5 12.5
2 Dustin Pedroia 0.1071 0.1160 0.1504 25.6 17.7 7.9
3 Nolan Arenado 0.1144 0.1231 0.1667 31.8 24.0 7.8
4 Charlie Blackmon 0.1144 0.1235 0.1732 33.5 26.1 7.4
5 Peter Bourjos 0.1341 0.1130 0.1044 13.9 6.7 7.1
6 Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.1252 0.1105 0.1144 9.8 2.9 7.0
7 Mike Napoli 0.0979 0.1063 0.1426 24.6 17.7 6.9
8 Nick Castellanos 0.0847 0.0969 0.1208 13.2 6.6 6.6
9 Jose Altuve 0.1227 0.1288 0.1506 15.4 9.2 6.2
10 Yoenis Cespedes 0.1415 0.1280 0.1326 8.4 2.4 6.0

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mookie Betts 0.1548
0.1135
(25.6)
0.1097
(26.4)
0.1119
(26.0)
0.1151
(25.1)
Chris Davis 0.1263
0.1704
(33.4)
0.1621
(29.7)
0.1572
(25.3)
0.1835
(41.6)
Daniel Murphy 0.1787
0.1157
(33.0)
0.1113
(34.0)
0.1092
(36.3)
0.1221
(29.8)
Jose Altuve 0.1339
0.0924
(25.3)
0.0895
(25.5)
0.0925
(24.5)
0.0924
(26.0)
Brett Gardner 0.0647
0.0971
(24.6)
0.0957
(25.3)
0.0956
(24.2)
0.0987
(25.0)
Nick Markakis 0.1301
0.0788
(30.8)
0.0807
(27.7)
0.0809
(28.8)
0.0767
(32.9)
Jake Lamb 0.1532
0.1046
(25.2)
0.0913
(31.5)
0.1082
(22.5)
0.1009
(27.9)
Gregory Polanco 0.1465
0.0964
(25.7)
0.0911
(27.3)
0.0924
(27.5)
0.1005
(23.9)
Christian Yelich 0.1487
0.0901
(34.5)
0.0832
(37.3)
0.0946
(30.9)
0.0856
(38.1)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mark Teixeira 0.1623 0.1005 29.8
2 Ryan Zimmerman 0.1472 0.0985 25.7
3 Nolan Arenado 0.1492 0.1911 24.8
4 Yangervis Solarte 0.0993 0.1603 24.3
5 Josh Reddick 0.1306 0.0843 23.1
6 Addison Russell 0.1143 0.1589 22.9
7 Brian Dozier 0.1049 0.1433 22.2
8 Mike Napoli 0.1162 0.1566 22.0
9 Trevor Story 0.1142 0.1735 22.0
10 Howie Kendrick 0.1076 0.0737 21.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Duvall 0.1020 0.1694 35.6
2 Travis Jankowski 0.1102 0.0313 33.6
3 Addison Russell 0.1040 0.1589 27.5
4 Ryan Zimmerman 0.1470 0.0985 26.8
5 Tim Anderson 0.1198 0.0696 25.5
6 Nolan Arenado 0.1484 0.1911 23.5
7 Danny Valencia 0.1353 0.0986 23.5
8 Howie Kendrick 0.1081 0.0737 23.5
9 Hanley Ramirez 0.1323 0.1790 23.5
10 Josh Reddick 0.1281 0.0843 23.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 David Ortiz 0.1546 0.2029 25.7
2 Addison Russell 0.1106 0.1589 24.6
3 Yangervis Solarte 0.0992 0.1603 23.9
4 Josh Reddick 0.1313 0.0843 23.8
5 Brian Dozier 0.1020 0.1433 23.6
6 Trevor Story 0.1124 0.1735 22.4
7 Travis Jankowski 0.0823 0.0313 22.3
8 Mark Teixeira 0.1418 0.1005 21.2
9 Jonathan Lucroy 0.1032 0.1489 21.0
10 Billy Hamilton 0.0747 0.0370 20.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mark Teixeira 0.1829 0.1005 38.4
2 Ryan Zimmerman 0.1620 0.0985 32.1
3 Michael Saunders 0.1516 0.1022 30.6
4 Nolan Arenado 0.1422 0.1911 30.4
5 Brian McCann 0.1649 0.1179 25.8
6 Mike Napoli 0.1116 0.1566 25.6
7 Yangervis Solarte 0.0993 0.1603 24.7
8 Howie Kendrick 0.1138 0.0737 24.7
9 Corey Seager 0.1353 0.1048 24.6
10 José Bautista 0.1736 0.1335 23.5

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adam Duvall 0.1020 0.1390 0.1694 35.6 14.7 20.8
2 Tim Anderson 0.1198 0.0886 0.0696 25.5 10.9 14.6
3 Travis Jankowski 0.1102 0.0765 0.0313 33.6 19.7 13.9
4 Anthony Rizzo 0.1276 0.1495 0.1612 16.7 3.7 13.0
5 Whit Merrifield 0.1198 0.0847 0.0873 13.7 1.2 12.5
6 Mark Trumbo 0.1341 0.1526 0.1619 12.6 2.0 10.6
7 Manny Machado 0.1082 0.1251 0.1379 14.5 4.6 10.0
8 Javier Báez 0.0886 0.1364 0.1311 15.1 5.2 9.9
9 Odúbel Herrera 0.0854 0.0746 0.0747 12.9 4.0 8.8
10 Paulo Orlando 0.1049 0.0899 0.0888 12.1 3.5 8.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mark Trumbo 0.1383 0.1526 0.1619 11.0 2.0 8.9
2 Jose Iglesias 0.0930 0.0785 0.0624 19.4 11.5 8.0
3 Bryce Harper 0.1577 0.1471 0.1372 17.4 10.1 7.2
4 Marwin Gonzalez 0.1039 0.0933 0.0985 6.5 0.5 6.0
5 Ryan Howard 0.1227 0.1398 0.1630 12.0 6.1 5.9
6 Brandon Crawford 0.1025 0.1127 0.1348 15.6 9.9 5.8
7 Wilson Ramos 0.1215 0.1334 0.1530 12.7 6.9 5.8
8 Russell Martin 0.1169 0.1284 0.1383 7.6 1.9 5.7
9 Mike Trout 0.1610 0.1539 0.1468 14.5 9.1 5.5
10 Matt Kemp 0.1263 0.1350 0.1607 18.3 13.1 5.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Michael Saunders 0.1516 0.1313 0.1022 30.6 19.8 10.8
2 Chris Carter 0.1683 0.1535 0.1460 17.8 8.9 8.9
3 Mark Teixeira 0.1829 0.1623 0.1005 38.4 29.8 8.6
4 Carlos Correa 0.1583 0.1448 0.1455 12.0 3.7 8.3
5 Chris Davis 0.1835 0.1704 0.1263 41.6 33.4 8.1
6 Victor Martinez 0.1590 0.1448 0.1410 14.2 6.2 8.0
7 Adrián González 0.1625 0.1492 0.1422 16.2 8.4 7.8
8 Brian McCann 0.1649 0.1489 0.1179 25.8 18.3 7.4
9 Corey Seager 0.1353 0.1237 0.1048 24.6 17.3 7.3
10 Josh Donaldson 0.1615 0.1508 0.1414 17.8 10.9 6.8

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Bryce Harper 0.2431
0.3056
(42.7)
0.2921
(32.7)
0.3005
(39.5)
0.3108
(46.0)
Ben Revere 0.2171
0.3003
(33.3)
0.2980
(31.5)
0.2998
(33.1)
0.3007
(33.5)
Derek Norris 0.1855
0.2435
(29.1)
0.2553
(33.4)
0.2400
(27.5)
0.2470
(30.8)
Andrew McCutchen 0.2559
0.2946
(30.0)
0.2971
(30.0)
0.2965
(31.2)
0.2927
(28.8)
Jonathan Villar 0.2852
0.2391
(27.5)
0.2407
(28.0)
0.2382
(28.2)
0.2399
(26.9)
José Ramírez 0.3115
0.2619
(27.2)
0.2426
(40.6)
0.2616
(27.4)
0.2622
(26.9)
Jason Heyward 0.2302
0.2765
(30.8)
0.2734
(27.5)
0.2787
(32.0)
0.2744
(29.6)
Wilson Ramos 0.3071
0.2505
(26.7)
0.2495
(28.5)
0.2516
(26.1)
0.2493
(27.2)
Prince Fielder 0.2117
0.2809
(27.7)
0.2840
(27.9)
0.2909
(31.4)
0.2708
(24.0)
Alex Gordon 0.2202
0.2660
(26.0)
0.2663
(25.0)
0.2707
(28.3)
0.2612
(23.6)
Jean Segura 0.3187
0.2687
(30.8)
0.2625
(36.8)
0.2703
(29.7)
0.2670
(31.9)
DJ LeMahieu 0.3478
0.2874
(34.8)
0.2819
(39.9)
0.2881
(34.4)
0.2868
(35.1)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Daniel Murphy 0.2945 0.3465 27.0
2 Chris Davis 0.2556 0.2208 26.9
3 Corey Seager 0.2640 0.3078 26.3
4 David Ortiz 0.2690 0.3147 25.1
5 Joey Votto 0.2849 0.3255 23.7
6 J.T. Realmuto 0.2537 0.3026 23.6
7 Ian Desmond 0.2446 0.2848 23.4
8 Joe Panik 0.2774 0.2392 23.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Daniel Murphy 0.2805 0.3465 36.6
2 Joe Panik 0.2941 0.2392 30.6
3 Trea Turner 0.2512 0.3420 28.4
4 Corey Dickerson 0.2882 0.2451 25.4
5 Mark Reynolds 0.2244 0.2824 24.2
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.2262 0.2670 23.9
7 Troy Tulowitzki 0.2941 0.2541 23.5
8 Charlie Blackmon 0.2836 0.3235 23.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corey Seager 0.2624 0.3078 27.4
2 Ian Desmond 0.2428 0.2848 24.7
3 Joey Votto 0.2841 0.3255 24.3
4 Charlie Blackmon 0.2807 0.3235 23.9
5 Ryan Zimmerman 0.2625 0.2178 23.5
6 Joe Panik 0.2782 0.2392 23.4
7 J.T. Realmuto 0.2557 0.3026 22.5
8 David Ortiz 0.2742 0.3147 21.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Davis 0.2654 0.2208 33.4
2 Daniel Murphy 0.2850 0.3465 32.5
3 David Ortiz 0.2637 0.3147 28.3
4 Trea Turner 0.2584 0.3420 25.2
5 Corey Seager 0.2655 0.3078 25.1
6 J.T. Realmuto 0.2517 0.3026 24.6
7 Paulo Orlando 0.2458 0.3020 24.4
8 Todd Frazier 0.2553 0.2254 23.7

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.2262 0.2535 0.2670 23.9 5.0 18.9
2 Troy Tulowitzki 0.2941 0.2586 0.2541 23.5 5.5 18.0
3 Ryan Schimpf 0.2672 0.2117 0.2174 17.5 0.0 17.5
4 Corey Dickerson 0.2882 0.2610 0.2451 25.4 11.8 13.6
5 José Ramírez 0.2426 0.2619 0.3115 40.6 27.2 13.4
6 Mookie Betts 0.2832 0.2977 0.3185 23.4 11.0 12.4
7 Mark Reynolds 0.2244 0.2454 0.2824 24.2 13.9 10.3
8 Javier Báez 0.2289 0.2485 0.2732 18.5 8.6 9.9
9 Daniel Murphy 0.2805 0.2945 0.3465 36.6 27.0 9.6
10 Jayson Werth 0.2715 0.2545 0.2438 18.7 9.9 8.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Travis Shaw 0.2630 0.2507 0.2417 14.2 7.8 6.5
2 Jayson Werth 0.2650 0.2545 0.2438 16.2 9.9 6.3
3 Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.2407 0.2495 0.2802 19.3 14.3 5.1
4 Nelson Cruz 0.2520 0.2584 0.2869 19.6 15.3 4.4
5 Odúbel Herrera 0.2657 0.2715 0.2864 10.0 6.1 3.9
6 Jonathan Schoop 0.2504 0.2561 0.2667 7.0 3.2 3.8
7 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2562 0.2629 0.2797 9.8 6.1 3.7
8 Jake Lamb 0.2601 0.2538 0.2486 10.1 6.4 3.7
9 Prince Fielder 0.2909 0.2809 0.2117 31.4 27.7 3.7
10 Khris Davis 0.2470 0.2412 0.2468 3.4 0.0 3.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Justin Turner 0.2945 0.2838 0.2752 15.6 8.9 6.7
2 Chris Davis 0.2654 0.2556 0.2208 33.4 26.9 6.6
3 Tyler Naquin 0.2289 0.2446 0.2960 22.4 16.7 5.7
4 Daniel Murphy 0.2850 0.2945 0.3465 32.5 27.0 5.5
5 Chris Carter 0.2368 0.2285 0.2222 13.1 7.7 5.4
6 Colby Rasmus 0.2439 0.2319 0.2060 18.2 13.1 5.1
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.2468 0.2535 0.2670 9.2 5.0 4.2
8 Mike Trout 0.2944 0.3004 0.3151 10.2 6.2 4.0
9 Christian Yelich 0.2763 0.2820 0.2976 10.2 6.5 3.7
10 Trea Turner 0.2584 0.2699 0.3420 25.2 21.5 3.7

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alex Wood 255
694
(438.7)
703
(448.0)
663
(408.5)
724
(469.0)
Rubby De La Rosa 222
656
(434.2)
700
(478.0)
600
(378.3)
712
(490.0)
Phil Hughes 259
768
(508.8)
656
(397.0)
835
(575.6)
701
(442.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Christian Friedrich 153 567 413.8
2 Luis Perdomo 285 662 376.7
3 Michael Fulmer 277 647 370.1
4 Ricky Nolasco 449 817 368.0
5 Sonny Gray 883 517 365.9
6 Matt Harvey 764 402 361.7
7 Tim Lincecum 559 200 358.9
8 Jordan Zimmermann 807 450 356.5
9 Cody Anderson 614 270 343.9
10 Alfredo Simon 638 298 340.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kenta Maeda 100 716 616.0
2 Luis Perdomo 100 662 562.0
3 Michael Fulmer 100 647 547.0
4 Marcus Stroman 337 855 518.0
5 Dan Straily 283 792 509.0
6 Sean Manaea 100 594 494.0
7 Brandon Finnegan 240 734 494.0
8 Adam Wainwright 372 847 475.0
9 Jerad Eickhoff 360 811 451.0
10 Aaron Sanchez 345 790 445.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Fulmer 40 647 607.1
2 Zach Davies 80 682 601.7
3 Christian Friedrich 4 567 562.6
4 Miguel González 4 566 561.7
5 Luis Perdomo 111 662 551.4
6 Dan Straily 281 792 511.5
7 Adam Warren 715 277 438.2
8 Sean Manaea 161 594 433.4
9 Raisel Iglesias 751 325 426.2
10 Matt Harvey 827 402 425.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jhoulys Chacín 100 632 532.0
2 Kyle Ryan 673 226 447.0
3 Josh A. Smith 697 260 437.0
4 Tyler Chatwood 234 669 435.0
5 Marcus Stroman 441 855 414.0
6 Michael Lorenzen 605 202 403.0
7 Alfredo Simon 696 298 398.0
8 Zach Neal 673 281 392.0
9 Justin Nicolino 738 346 392.0
10 Taylor Rogers 648 264 384.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kenta Maeda 100 730 716 616.0 14.0 602.0
2 Adam Wainwright 372 726 847 475.0 120.6 354.4
3 Marcus Stroman 337 626 855 518.0 229.4 288.6
4 Jerad Eickhoff 360 639 811 451.0 171.6 279.4
5 José Fernández 411 673 737 326.0 63.5 262.5
6 Blake Snell 100 450 401 301.0 49.4 251.6
7 Sean Manaea 100 330 594 494.0 264.2 229.8
8 Jon Gray 356 556 712 356.0 156.1 199.9
9 Chad Kuhl 100 304 301 201.0 3.2 197.8
10 Braden Shipley 100 297 306 206.0 8.8 197.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Miguel González 4 315 566 561.7 251.3 310.3
2 Chad Kuhl 4 304 301 296.6 3.2 293.4
3 Braden Shipley 4 297 306 301.6 8.8 292.8
4 Zach Davies 80 347 682 601.7 334.8 266.8
5 Zach Eflin 4 280 272 267.6 8.2 259.5
6 José Ureña 79 337 373 294.2 36.1 258.1
7 Chris Devenski 4 254 408 403.7 153.8 249.8
8 Michael Fulmer 40 277 647 607.1 370.1 237.1
9 Zach Neal 4 339 281 276.7 57.7 219.0
10 Seth Lugo 40 256 260 220.3 3.6 216.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Josh A. Smith 697 351 260 437.0 90.7 346.3
2 Zach Neal 673 339 281 392.0 57.7 334.3
3 Pat Dean 667 355 300 367.0 54.8 312.2
4 Taylor Rogers 648 344 264 384.0 80.2 303.8
5 Chad Kuhl 604 304 301 303.0 3.2 299.8
6 Cody Reed 599 302 230 369.0 71.7 297.3
7 Justin Nicolino 738 451 346 392.0 105.3 286.7
8 Edwin Díaz 559 282 217 342.0 64.7 277.3
9 Jake Thompson 557 281 237 320.0 43.7 276.3
10 Zach Eflin 556 280 272 284.0 8.2 275.8

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Kyle Barraclough 0.3693
0.2462
(34.8)
0.2215
(43.8)
0.2485
(34.4)
0.2439
(35.5)
David Phelps 0.3239
0.1937
(42.5)
0.1835
(47.8)
0.2062
(38.5)
0.1812
(47.0)
Justin Verlander 0.2813
0.1976
(67.1)
0.2029
(66.6)
0.1947
(70.6)
0.2006
(64.6)
Michael Pineda 0.2738
0.2173
(35.7)
0.2188
(38.1)
0.2197
(34.5)
0.2150
(37.5)
Robbie Ray 0.2809
0.2205
(39.7)
0.2051
(55.3)
0.2273
(35.1)
0.2138
(45.0)
Edwin Díaz 0.4055
0.1834
(46.2)
0.2127
(40.9)
0.1808
(46.9)
0.1860
(45.6)
Michael Feliz 0.3519
0.1946
(39.9)
0.2031
(38.9)
0.2137
(35.0)
0.1756
(45.1)
José Fernández 0.3433
0.2835
(37.2)
0.2628
(56.0)
0.2862
(35.9)
0.2808
(39.3)
Juan Nicasio 0.2690
0.1933
(34.0)
0.1949
(35.7)
0.1943
(34.0)
0.1924
(34.6)
James Shields 0.1642
0.2213
(54.6)
0.2190
(48.8)
0.2135
(47.4)
0.2291
(60.9)
Brad Hand 0.3049
0.1813
(41.6)
0.1718
(46.8)
0.1949
(37.0)
0.1677
(46.6)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Sale 0.3004 0.2569 47.9
2 Martín Pérez 0.1602 0.1205 41.9
3 Junior Guerra 0.2739 0.2033 39.3
4 Félix Hernández 0.2344 0.1863 37.6
5 Danny Duffy 0.1979 0.2572 36.6
6 Yordano Ventura 0.2119 0.1765 36.5
7 Chris Devenski 0.1589 0.2549 35.4
8 Brandon Finnegan 0.2350 0.1975 34.3
9 Jon Gray 0.2029 0.2598 33.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Martín Pérez 0.1722 0.1205 48.1
2 Danny Duffy 0.1869 0.2572 48.1
3 Félix Hernández 0.2423 0.1863 39.7
4 Luis Perdomo 0.2127 0.1586 38.8
5 Josh Tomlin 0.2108 0.1628 38.1
6 Andrew Miller 0.3123 0.4473 35.9
7 Mike Fiers 0.2294 0.1851 35.4
8 Tyler Thornburg 0.2040 0.3422 35.1
9 Seunghwan Oh 0.2127 0.3291 35.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Martín Pérez 0.1712 0.1205 50.6
2 Chris Sale 0.3015 0.2569 48.1
3 Junior Guerra 0.2873 0.2033 45.5
4 Brandon Finnegan 0.2372 0.1975 35.3
5 Chris Devenski 0.1611 0.2549 34.8
6 Dan Straily 0.2396 0.2045 34.5
7 Tyler Thornburg 0.2030 0.3422 34.4
8 Marco Estrada 0.1740 0.2282 33.1
9 Mike Fiers 0.2212 0.1851 32.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Danny Duffy 0.1832 0.2572 47.4
2 Chris Sale 0.2994 0.2569 46.9
3 Félix Hernández 0.2449 0.1863 44.4
4 Jon Gray 0.1888 0.2598 44.0
5 Yordano Ventura 0.2164 0.1765 40.1
6 Chris Devenski 0.1567 0.2549 36.3
7 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.2072 0.1758 34.0
8 Junior Guerra 0.2605 0.2033 32.7
9 Tyler Thornburg 0.2091 0.3422 32.6

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Luis Perdomo 0.2127 0.1652 0.1586 38.8 10.5 28.3
2 Vince Velasquez 0.2218 0.2653 0.2759 27.2 0.7 26.5
3 Zach Neal 0.2127 0.1174 0.0961 34.0 8.6 25.4
4 Albert Suárez 0.2127 0.1442 0.1521 23.1 0.5 22.6
5 Joel De La Cruz 0.2127 0.1224 0.1341 23.0 0.7 22.3
6 Noah Syndergaard 0.2456 0.2706 0.2930 31.9 9.7 22.1
7 Zach Eflin 0.2127 0.1317 0.1140 28.1 7.3 20.7
8 Kendall Graveman 0.1758 0.1450 0.1374 33.7 13.3 20.4
9 Drew Pomeranz 0.2165 0.2405 0.2646 30.6 10.4 20.1
10 Andrew Miller 0.3123 0.3772 0.4473 35.9 16.7 19.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Dan Straily 0.2396 0.2231 0.2045 34.5 22.1 12.4
2 Collin McHugh 0.1903 0.2007 0.2224 18.8 9.8 9.0
3 Martín Pérez 0.1712 0.1602 0.1205 50.6 41.9 8.7
4 Kenley Jansen 0.3224 0.3509 0.4143 21.0 13.6 7.4
5 Andrew Miller 0.3515 0.3772 0.4473 24.0 16.7 7.3
6 Tyler Chatwood 0.1849 0.1736 0.1749 12.3 5.4 6.9
7 Junior Guerra 0.2873 0.2739 0.2033 45.5 39.3 6.2
8 Danny Salazar 0.2439 0.2528 0.2757 13.6 7.9 5.7
9 Wade Miley 0.1715 0.1786 0.1927 9.1 3.4 5.7
10 Corey Kluber 0.2485 0.2542 0.2640 6.0 0.4 5.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Joel De La Cruz 0.2127 0.1224 0.1341 24.2 0.7 23.6
2 Jhoulys Chacín 0.2127 0.1701 0.1883 21.2 5.6 15.6
3 Tim Adleman 0.2127 0.1697 0.1638 16.7 4.4 12.3
4 Danny Duffy 0.1832 0.1979 0.2572 47.4 36.6 10.8
5 Doug Fister 0.1632 0.1500 0.1476 19.3 9.1 10.3
6 Jon Gray 0.1888 0.2029 0.2598 44.0 33.9 10.1
7 Mike Montgomery 0.1574 0.1808 0.2222 23.0 13.3 9.7
8 Jeff Samardzija 0.2195 0.2080 0.2014 22.6 13.1 9.5
9 Jameson Taillon 0.1414 0.1623 0.2033 22.0 13.3 8.7
10 Jered Weaver 0.1570 0.1479 0.1343 24.5 17.5 7.0

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Junior Guerra 0.4500
0.0858
(178.7)
0.0833
(150.4)
0.0499
(193.9)
0.1852
(138.6)
Aaron Sanchez 0.5000
0.1810
(251.3)
0.1250
(248.0)
0.2144
(220.8)
0.1636
(279.1)
Rick Porcello 0.6667
0.4294
(210.4)
0.2703
(298.4)
0.3938
(237.4)
0.4667
(193.0)
Steven Wright 0.5417
0.2546
(187.7)
0.1852
(193.8)
0.2086
(214.5)
0.3182
(157.7)
J.A. Happ 0.6250
0.3571
(212.5)
0.2564
(244.8)
0.3687
(199.2)
0.3462
(235.4)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Straily 0.1236 0.4118 227.5
2 Michael Pineda 0.4108 0.1875 169.5
3 Bartolo Colon 0.2299 0.4412 166.4
4 Patrick Corbin 0.3620 0.1389 157.0
5 Tanner Roark 0.3032 0.4706 142.4
6 Drew Pomeranz 0.1516 0.3548 142.2
7 Chris Tillman 0.3375 0.5333 139.4
8 Trevor Bauer 0.1711 0.3429 138.5
9 Kyle Hendricks 0.3344 0.5161 134.7
10 Aníbal Sánchez 0.3967 0.2000 132.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Martinez 0.1837 0.5161 219.5
2 Rich Hill 0.0833 0.6000 200.0
3 Jon Lester 0.2895 0.5938 193.6
4 Corey Kluber 0.2821 0.5625 188.7
5 Tanner Roark 0.1944 0.4706 183.9
6 Kyle Hendricks 0.2195 0.5161 175.5
7 Chad Bettis 0.1667 0.4375 170.7
8 Johnny Cueto 0.3077 0.5625 170.7
9 José Fernández 0.2593 0.5517 170.5
10 Dan Straily 0.1364 0.4118 169.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Straily 0.0808 0.4118 257.3
2 Bartolo Colon 0.1633 0.4412 215.0
3 Trevor Bauer 0.1197 0.3429 176.0
4 Michael Pineda 0.3926 0.1875 159.7
5 Patrick Corbin 0.3604 0.1389 159.6
6 Danny Duffy 0.0837 0.2857 143.2
7 Drew Pomeranz 0.1493 0.3548 140.2
8 Luis Perdomo 0.0403 0.2571 139.5
9 Chris Tillman 0.3418 0.5333 132.6
10 Johnny Cueto 0.4081 0.5625 130.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kyle Hendricks 0.2857 0.5161 184.2
2 Tanner Roark 0.2812 0.4706 176.3
3 Tyler Chatwood 0.2000 0.4444 174.8
4 Michael Pineda 0.4286 0.1875 169.5
5 José Fernández 0.3462 0.5517 164.0
6 Chris Tillman 0.3333 0.5333 155.1
7 Drew Pomeranz 0.1538 0.3548 153.2
8 Patrick Corbin 0.3636 0.1389 145.7
9 Jason Hammel 0.3077 0.5000 144.8
10 Mike Foltynewicz 0.1515 0.4091 144.1

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Martinez 0.1837 0.3958 0.5161 219.5 96.6 122.9
2 Jon Gray 0.0968 0.3213 0.3448 133.1 16.1 117.0
3 Chris Sale 0.2895 0.4715 0.5312 163.9 53.4 110.5
4 Rich Hill 0.0833 0.3620 0.6000 200.0 104.1 95.9
5 Jon Lester 0.2895 0.4699 0.5938 193.6 97.9 95.7
6 Noah Syndergaard 0.2105 0.3970 0.4516 133.9 40.0 93.9
7 Corey Kluber 0.2821 0.4479 0.5625 188.7 97.8 90.9
8 Johnny Cueto 0.3077 0.4688 0.5625 170.7 81.8 88.9
9 Justin Verlander 0.2500 0.4079 0.4706 144.0 55.8 88.3
10 Rick Porcello 0.2703 0.4294 0.6667 298.4 210.4 88.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Juan Nicasio 0.3249 0.1799 0.1923 71.2 5.9 65.3
2 Johnny Cueto 0.4081 0.4688 0.5625 130.6 81.8 48.8
3 Bartolo Colon 0.1633 0.2299 0.4412 215.0 166.4 48.5
4 Trevor Bauer 0.1197 0.1711 0.3429 176.0 138.5 37.5
5 Drew Smyly 0.3795 0.3398 0.2333 112.4 79.2 33.2
6 Kevin Gausman 0.3625 0.3242 0.3000 51.9 19.0 32.9
7 Danny Duffy 0.0837 0.1327 0.2857 143.2 111.2 32.0
8 Matt Shoemaker 0.2252 0.2771 0.3333 68.1 37.0 31.2
9 Ricky Nolasco 0.3264 0.2951 0.2500 67.5 37.6 29.8
10 Dan Straily 0.0808 0.1236 0.4118 257.3 227.5 29.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matt Bowman 0.3333 0.0899 0.0339 79.4 16.0 63.4
2 Matt Barnes 0.3200 0.0955 0.0645 68.5 9.1 59.3
3 Adam Wainwright 0.5652 0.4775 0.3939 130.8 71.5 59.3
4 Mike Montgomery 0.2500 0.0906 0.0816 62.7 4.1 58.6
5 Tyler Chatwood 0.2000 0.2688 0.4444 174.8 116.9 58.0
6 Chris Rusin 0.3214 0.1435 0.1034 70.4 14.3 56.0
7 Pat Dean 0.2800 0.0786 0.0526 63.1 8.1 55.1
8 Vance Worley 0.2500 0.0825 0.0571 64.2 9.6 54.6
9 Jesse Chavez 0.3478 0.1472 0.0323 84.2 32.7 51.5
10 Kyle Hendricks 0.2857 0.3344 0.5161 184.2 134.7 49.5

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Roberto Osuna 0.5000
0.3123
(51.4)
0.2143
(87.1)
0.3062
(53.1)
0.0000
(135.3)
Alex Colomé 0.6491
0.0675
(129.4)
0.0263
(144.5)
0.0431
(134.9)
0.0000
(139.9)
Francisco Rodríguez 0.7213
0.4523
(61.0)
0.4565
(66.1)
0.4877
(52.7)
0.0000
(162.4)
Sam Dyson 0.5205
0.0383
(134.8)
0.0426
(141.0)
0.0385
(134.7)
0.0000
(139.8)
Jeanmar Gómez 0.5286
0.0441
(141.1)
0.0227
(155.2)
0.0400
(142.3)
0.0000
(148.1)
Jeremy Jeffress 0.4576
0.2586
(45.7)
0.0217
(109.0)
0.2523
(47.2)
0.0000
(103.0)
Ryan Madson 0.4762
0.0508
(112.4)
0.0513
(119.2)
0.0523
(111.9)
0.0000
(120.5)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 David Hernandez 0.4171 0.0143 132.7
2 Ken Giles 0.5108 0.2174 86.5
3 Edwin Díaz 0.0000 0.3673 77.7
4 Seunghwan Oh 0.0000 0.2500 75.4
5 Jason Grilli 0.3407 0.0597 72.9
6 Jim Johnson 0.0350 0.3077 70.1
7 Brandon Kintzler 0.0000 0.3148 68.4
8 Aroldis Chapman 0.3290 0.6102 60.4
9 Raisel Iglesias 0.0000 0.1622 49.7
10 Tony Watson 0.0303 0.2143 47.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeurys Familia 0.2909 0.6538 121.8
2 AJ Ramos 0.1961 0.5970 116.1
3 Edwin Díaz 0.0307 0.3673 76.7
4 Seunghwan Oh 0.0307 0.2500 73.8
5 Zack Britton 0.4130 0.6812 72.3
6 Jason Grilli 0.3429 0.0597 66.9
7 Addison Reed 0.2444 0.0125 65.5
8 Tony Cingrani 0.0370 0.2615 65.3
9 Brandon Kintzler 0.0417 0.3148 64.9
10 Mark Melancon 0.4107 0.6267 62.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 David Hernandez 0.4308 0.0143 137.1
2 Ken Giles 0.5062 0.2174 85.2
3 Edwin Díaz 0.0000 0.3673 77.7
4 Jason Grilli 0.3523 0.0597 75.8
5 Seunghwan Oh 0.0000 0.2500 75.3
6 Jim Johnson 0.0345 0.3077 70.2
7 Brandon Kintzler 0.0000 0.3148 68.4
8 Aroldis Chapman 0.3255 0.6102 61.1
9 Tony Cingrani 0.0545 0.2615 53.6
10 Raisel Iglesias 0.0000 0.1622 49.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeurys Familia 0.0000 0.6538 200.2
2 Zack Britton 0.0000 0.6812 165.4
3 Mark Melancon 0.0000 0.6267 161.1
4 Kenley Jansen 0.0000 0.6620 158.6
5 AJ Ramos 0.0000 0.5970 157.6
6 David Robertson 0.0000 0.5968 151.3
7 Aroldis Chapman 0.0000 0.6102 128.8
8 Cody Allen 0.0000 0.4776 118.2
9 Santiago Casilla 0.0000 0.5000 113.3
10 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.5439 113.0

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 AJ Ramos 0.1961 0.5002 0.5970 116.1 24.3 91.7
2 Jeurys Familia 0.2909 0.5289 0.6538 121.8 37.1 84.7
3 Jeremy Jeffress 0.0217 0.2586 0.4576 109.0 45.7 63.3
4 Addison Reed 0.2444 0.0369 0.0125 65.5 10.2 55.2
5 Joakim Soria 0.2449 0.0637 0.0143 62.7 17.2 45.5
6 Cody Allen 0.2778 0.5155 0.4776 57.1 12.4 44.7
7 Zack Britton 0.4130 0.5356 0.6812 72.3 34.6 37.7
8 John Axford 0.2128 0.0130 0.0441 43.9 6.3 37.6
9 Mark Melancon 0.4107 0.5210 0.6267 62.8 26.0 36.8
10 Roberto Osuna 0.2143 0.3123 0.5000 87.1 51.4 35.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tony Barnette 0.0307 0.0000 0.0000 9.8 2.3 7.6
2 Tony Cingrani 0.0545 0.0781 0.2615 53.6 47.2 6.4
3 Alex Colomé 0.0431 0.0675 0.6491 134.9 129.4 5.5
4 David Hernandez 0.4308 0.4171 0.0143 137.1 132.7 4.4
5 David Phelps 0.0222 0.0324 0.0625 10.9 7.3 3.6
6 Jake McGee 0.3631 0.3463 0.2632 22.4 18.9 3.5
7 Drew Storen 0.2600 0.2468 0.0526 49.4 46.4 3.0
8 Jason Grilli 0.3523 0.3407 0.0597 75.8 72.9 2.9
9 Cody Allen 0.5246 0.5155 0.4776 14.9 12.4 2.4
10 Brad Ziegler 0.3569 0.3490 0.3188 13.7 11.4 2.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jeurys Familia 0.0000 0.5289 0.6538 200.2 37.1 163.1
2 Mark Melancon 0.0000 0.5210 0.6267 161.1 26.0 135.1
3 AJ Ramos 0.0000 0.5002 0.5970 157.6 24.3 133.3
4 Zack Britton 0.0000 0.5356 0.6812 165.4 34.6 130.7
5 Kenley Jansen 0.0000 0.5273 0.6620 158.6 31.5 127.1
6 David Robertson 0.0000 0.4865 0.5968 151.3 27.0 124.3
7 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.5230 0.5439 113.0 2.6 110.5
8 Cody Allen 0.0000 0.5155 0.4776 118.2 12.4 105.7
9 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0000 0.4523 0.7213 162.4 61.0 101.4
10 Fernando Rodney 0.0000 0.3684 0.3731 97.1 1.3 95.8

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Kyle Hendricks 2.1316
3.6033
(1248.6)
3.6585
(1354.7)
3.5992
(1300.2)
3.6075
(1199.3)
Alfredo Simon 9.3580
4.5919
(1359.4)
4.1573
(1463.0)
4.2788
(1430.8)
4.9143
(1284.3)
Aaron Blair 7.5857
4.1281
(1054.1)
4.0741
(1043.3)
4.1836
(1012.3)
4.0719
(1095.1)
José Berríos 8.0229
4.1399
(1033.7)
4.0741
(1027.7)
4.0983
(1024.8)
4.1822
(1041.6)
Chris Devenski 2.1600
5.1609
(1307.7)
4.0741
(899.8)
4.4856
(1062.1)
5.8731
(1569.6)
Aníbal Sánchez 5.8696
3.8996
(1179.5)
4.0388
(1028.3)
3.8621
(1155.5)
3.9375
(1201.2)
James Shields 5.8459
3.6968
(1598.7)
3.5880
(1616.4)
3.8549
(1408.3)
3.5386
(1786.6)
Tyler Duffey 6.4286
4.3816
(1098.3)
3.5762
(1526.4)
4.1891
(1169.2)
4.5793
(1022.4)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Fulmer 4.6642 3.0566 1172.3
2 Tanner Roark 3.9297 2.8286 1116.1
3 Aaron Sanchez 4.1647 3.0000 1081.5
4 Sonny Gray 3.4690 5.6923 1043.8
5 Rich Hill 4.1667 2.1208 987.8
6 Shelby Miller 3.8533 6.1485 961.9
7 Patrick Corbin 3.5915 5.1456 946.2
8 Rick Porcello 4.0056 3.1480 945.1
9 Ervin Santana 4.4336 3.3750 944.6
10 Steven Wright 4.5644 3.3319 942.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Wainwright 2.8247 4.6208 1274.5
2 Sonny Gray 3.0687 5.6923 1205.7
3 Rick Porcello 4.1622 3.1480 1162.0
4 Edinson Volquez 3.7287 5.3715 1152.7
5 Shelby Miller 3.3768 6.1485 1140.9
6 Zack Greinke 2.4723 4.3676 1069.9
7 Chris Young 3.4755 6.1917 984.5
8 Justin Verlander 3.8351 3.0439 977.5
9 Tim Lincecum 4.2818 9.1565 916.7
10 Drew Smyly 3.3439 4.8764 915.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tanner Roark 4.1680 2.8286 1382.6
2 Aaron Sanchez 4.4116 3.0000 1334.6
3 Michael Fulmer 4.3937 3.0566 1044.7
4 Steven Wright 4.5472 3.3319 979.4
5 Patrick Corbin 3.4781 5.1456 974.3
6 Rich Hill 4.0523 2.1208 969.8
7 Drew Smyly 3.2910 4.8764 965.1
8 Ervin Santana 4.3582 3.3750 943.1
9 Justin Verlander 3.7886 3.0439 923.2
10 Michael Pineda 3.3609 4.8159 890.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Fulmer 4.9448 3.0566 1308.2
2 Sonny Gray 3.1991 5.6923 1219.8
3 Adam Wainwright 3.1154 4.6208 1161.7
4 Shelby Miller 3.6486 6.1485 1088.4
5 Dan Straily 4.9800 3.7631 1069.8
6 J.A. Happ 4.3784 3.1846 1056.8
7 Rick Porcello 4.1797 3.1480 1037.4
8 Ian Kennedy 4.8013 3.6797 1026.9
9 Jerad Eickhoff 4.7718 3.6486 1019.4
10 Rich Hill 4.2857 2.1208 1009.1

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kenta Maeda 4.0741 3.3744 3.4839 631.3 67.9 563.4
2 Adam Morgan 4.1538 5.3403 6.0353 806.2 248.8 557.3
3 Tyler Wilson 3.7025 4.9720 5.2660 526.6 37.1 489.5
4 Doug Fister 3.5279 4.2428 4.6414 640.4 151.4 489.0
5 Luis Perdomo 4.0741 4.8128 5.7068 887.9 456.6 431.3
6 Tyler Duffey 3.5762 4.3816 6.4286 1526.4 1098.3 428.1
7 Madison Bumgarner 3.0745 2.7210 2.7397 571.1 169.2 401.9
8 Yovani Gallardo 3.6337 4.3849 5.4153 783.8 434.5 349.3
9 Dan Straily 4.4932 4.1397 3.7631 809.0 460.1 349.0
10 Noah Syndergaard 3.4964 3.1152 2.5971 885.9 537.4 348.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tanner Roark 4.1680 3.9297 2.8286 1382.6 1116.1 266.5
2 Aaron Sanchez 4.4116 4.1647 3.0000 1334.6 1081.5 253.1
3 Pat Dean 4.1551 4.8946 6.2822 554.8 355.0 199.8
4 Luis Perdomo 4.4519 4.8128 5.7068 646.9 456.6 190.3
5 Josh Tomlin 3.7857 4.1147 4.3966 241.6 56.3 185.3
6 Christian Friedrich 4.1976 4.6003 4.8015 185.0 1.7 183.3
7 John Lackey 3.6819 3.5128 3.3451 459.6 278.2 181.4
8 Marco Estrada 4.3968 4.2276 3.4773 865.6 690.2 175.4
9 Kenta Maeda 3.5437 3.3744 3.4839 241.7 67.9 173.8
10 Zach Davies 4.3080 4.1328 3.9673 421.7 252.1 169.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Dan Straily 4.9800 4.1397 3.7631 1069.8 460.1 609.8
2 Ian Kennedy 4.8013 4.2986 3.6797 1026.9 673.3 353.6
3 Daniel Mengden 4.0741 5.0040 6.5000 761.0 428.9 332.1
4 CC Sabathia 4.9813 4.5255 3.9072 927.7 631.7 296.0
5 Chris Devenski 5.8731 5.1609 2.1600 1569.6 1307.7 261.9
6 Jerad Eickhoff 4.7718 4.3856 3.6486 1019.4 763.3 256.1
7 Matt Moore 4.4587 4.0963 4.0840 426.2 181.4 244.7
8 Junior Guerra 4.2228 3.6555 2.8110 760.5 516.0 244.5
9 Adam Wainwright 3.1154 3.3203 4.6208 1161.7 928.5 233.2
10 Vance Worley 5.1166 4.4119 3.5308 627.7 396.2 231.5

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Kyle Hendricks 0.9789
1.2178
(201.3)
1.1882
(184.6)
1.2205
(212.0)
1.2150
(191.3)
Justin Verlander 1.0015
1.2456
(248.7)
1.2715
(278.6)
1.2376
(252.1)
1.2536
(246.3)
Shelby Miller 1.6733
1.2905
(161.7)
1.2561
(174.2)
1.3053
(149.5)
1.2757
(173.4)
Rick Porcello 1.0090
1.2554
(247.2)
1.2973
(290.9)
1.2408
(244.5)
1.2705
(251.2)
Tim Lincecum 2.3739
1.3924
(190.0)
1.3724
(192.6)
1.4157
(183.1)
1.3690
(196.8)
Chris Devenski 0.9138
1.4342
(225.1)
1.3026
(174.3)
1.3589
(199.1)
1.5136
(253.1)
Alfredo Simon 2.0455
1.3803
(188.9)
1.3109
(207.4)
1.3421
(196.8)
1.4197
(180.3)
James Shields 1.5963
1.2340
(272.1)
1.2680
(238.2)
1.2562
(244.2)
1.2118
(299.0)
Patrick Corbin 1.5610
1.2099
(224.2)
1.2440
(195.3)
1.1922
(228.4)
1.2280
(219.0)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Sanchez 1.4418 1.1667 242.1
2 Michael Fulmer 1.3860 1.1195 192.7
3 Rich Hill 1.3929 0.9970 187.5
4 Adam Wainwright 1.1689 1.4044 172.9
5 Francisco Liriano 1.2295 1.4847 163.7
6 Julio Teheran 1.2316 1.0532 159.0
7 José Berríos 1.2910 1.8686 153.5
8 Jerad Eickhoff 1.3178 1.1605 152.9
9 Matt Harvey 1.0817 1.4676 142.5
10 Edinson Volquez 1.3512 1.5475 140.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Wainwright 1.1147 1.4044 212.7
2 Jorge De La Rosa 1.3049 1.6418 183.2
3 Chris Young 1.1907 1.6579 174.1
4 Jeremy Hellickson 1.3372 1.1534 171.6
5 Edinson Volquez 1.3167 1.5475 164.1
6 Luis Perdomo 1.3026 1.5886 163.9
7 John Lackey 1.2357 1.0566 162.7
8 Ricky Nolasco 1.4037 1.2445 161.5
9 Julio Teheran 1.2259 1.0532 160.1
10 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.0984 1.3266 158.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Sanchez 1.4760 1.1667 278.3
2 Julio Teheran 1.2450 1.0532 177.9
3 Michael Fulmer 1.3434 1.1195 172.7
4 Rich Hill 1.3471 0.9970 172.6
5 Marco Estrada 1.2990 1.1193 160.9
6 Francisco Liriano 1.2265 1.4847 157.3
7 Mike Pelfrey 1.4078 1.7311 151.7
8 Michael Pineda 1.1071 1.3491 150.5
9 José Berríos 1.2904 1.8686 150.4
10 Tanner Roark 1.2987 1.1714 145.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Fulmer 1.4302 1.1195 214.4
2 Aaron Sanchez 1.4074 1.1667 206.5
3 Adam Wainwright 1.1410 1.4044 205.5
4 Rich Hill 1.4405 0.9970 203.8
5 Jerad Eickhoff 1.3624 1.1605 180.6
6 Francisco Liriano 1.2325 1.4847 169.2
7 Dan Straily 1.3733 1.1864 164.4
8 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.1106 1.3266 163.3
9 Jameson Taillon 1.4776 1.1154 160.1
10 José Berríos 1.2916 1.8686 156.3

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kenta Maeda 1.3026 1.1610 1.1385 145.0 38.5 106.5
2 Luis Perdomo 1.3026 1.4699 1.5886 163.9 57.9 106.0
3 Adam Morgan 1.2692 1.4426 1.5000 97.5 13.3 84.2
4 Chris Sale 1.0984 1.0328 1.0368 90.8 24.7 66.1
5 Dan Straily 1.3313 1.2558 1.1864 145.3 79.7 65.5
6 Daniel Mengden 1.3026 1.4960 1.6111 89.7 27.8 61.8
7 R.A. Dickey 1.2293 1.3178 1.3674 72.5 13.3 59.1
8 Matt Andriese 1.3019 1.2045 1.2219 62.4 7.3 55.1
9 Archie Bradley 1.3716 1.4649 1.5600 95.7 40.7 54.9
10 Chris Young 1.1907 1.3290 1.6579 174.1 120.8 53.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marco Estrada 1.2990 1.2497 1.1193 160.9 116.9 44.1
2 Tanner Roark 1.2987 1.2612 1.1714 145.5 103.5 42.0
3 Aaron Sanchez 1.4760 1.4418 1.1667 278.3 242.1 36.3
4 Jake Arrieta 1.1059 1.0762 1.0845 51.2 18.3 32.9
5 Zach Davies 1.3841 1.3481 1.2490 121.5 88.9 32.5
6 Johnny Cueto 1.1368 1.1118 1.0926 76.8 44.5 32.3
7 Vance Worley 1.2210 1.3077 1.3731 39.8 12.4 27.4
8 Archie Bradley 1.4122 1.4649 1.5600 66.9 40.7 26.2
9 Enny Romero 1.2460 1.3792 1.5328 49.8 25.0 24.8
10 Pat Dean 1.2806 1.3738 1.6485 97.5 73.0 24.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Dan Straily 1.3733 1.2558 1.1864 164.4 79.7 84.7
2 Daniel Mengden 1.3026 1.4960 1.6111 95.6 27.8 67.7
3 Matt Moore 1.4037 1.3316 1.2908 112.0 60.4 51.5
4 Jhoulys Chacín 1.3026 1.3716 1.4444 76.6 26.3 50.3
5 Ian Kennedy 1.3619 1.2989 1.2215 131.8 89.0 42.9
6 Junior Guerra 1.3649 1.2673 1.1260 127.7 84.9 42.8
7 Reynaldo López 1.3026 1.4740 1.5682 49.2 12.6 36.6
8 CC Sabathia 1.3877 1.3304 1.3191 68.6 32.7 35.8
9 Danny Duffy 1.3200 1.2633 1.1410 146.0 112.3 33.7
10 Adam Wainwright 1.1410 1.1689 1.4044 205.5 172.9 32.6