2013 Projection Evaluation

Summary

Batting

System	PA raw	wOBA	SO	BB	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System	BF raw	wOBA	ERA	SO	BB	HR	W	L	SV	HLD	BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cameron Maybin	578	57	520.9
2	Derek Jeter	558	73	485.4
3	Mark Teixeira	543	63	480.4
4	Wilfredo Tovar	487	19	467.8
5	Jemile Weeks	454	9	445.4
6	Danny Espinosa	609	167	441.9
7	Jesus Montero	543	110	433.2
8	Scott Sizemore	435	6	429.1
9	Ryan Braun	673	253	419.8
10	Darin Mastroianni	482	73	409.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Derek Jeter	612	73	539.0
2	Jemile Weeks	508	9	499.0
3	Cameron Maybin	547	57	490.0
4	Casey Kotchman	505	21	484.0
5	Mark Teixeira	524	63	461.0
6	Brennan Boesch	502	53	449.0
7	Danny Espinosa	606	167	439.0
8	Jedd Gyorko	100	525	425.0
9	Nolan Arenado	100	514	414.0
10	Victor Martinez	255	668	413.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cameron Maybin	579	57	521.7
2	Derek Jeter	562	73	488.8
3	Mark Teixeira	513	63	449.7
4	Brian Dozier	205	623	417.9
5	Ryan Braun	666	253	413.5
6	Scott Sizemore	417	6	411.1
7	Danny Espinosa	565	167	397.7
8	Wilfredo Tovar	412	19	392.5
9	Matt Carpenter	328	717	389.2
10	Lyle Overbay	104	486	382.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Billy Hamilton	651	22	629.0
2	Johnny Giavotella	677	48	629.0
3	Nick Castellanos	632	18	614.0
4	Jonathan Schoop	617	15	602.0
5	Cord Phelps	601	9	592.0
6	Efren Navarro	597	6	591.0
7	Joey Butler	604	15	589.0
8	Eury Pérez	589	8	581.0
9	Carlos Triunfel	626	47	579.0
10	Engel Beltre	614	42	572.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jedd Gyorko	100	487	525	425.0	37.8	387.2
2	Nolan Arenado	100	467	514	414.0	47.1	366.9
3	Starling Marte	298	583	566	268.0	17.2	250.8
4	Nick Franklin	100	349	412	312.0	62.7	249.3
5	Andrelton Simmons	300	545	658	358.0	112.5	245.5
6	Manny Machado	315	560	710	395.0	150.5	244.5
7	Juan Lagares	100	338	421	321.0	82.5	238.5
8	Adeiny Hechavarría	277	511	578	301.0	66.7	234.3
9	Anthony Rizzo	411	633	690	279.0	56.6	222.4
10	Victor Martinez	255	470	668	413.0	197.9	215.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Juan Lagares	100	338	421	321.0	82.5	238.5
2	Brandon Barnes	116	346	445	328.6	99.3	229.3
3	David Lough	100	353	335	235.0	18.0	217.0
4	DJ LeMahieu	175	386	434	259.4	47.7	211.7
5	Pete Kozma	173	384	448	274.8	63.9	210.9
6	JB Shuck	100	310	478	378.0	168.0	210.0
7	Conor Gillaspie	155	360	452	297.3	91.6	205.7
8	Brian Dozier	205	410	623	417.9	212.9	204.9
9	Oswaldo Arcia	100	304	378	278.0	73.5	204.5
10	Jose Iglesias	104	305	382	278.2	77.1	201.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brad Miller	666	383	335	331.0	48.0	283.0
2	Scooter Gennett	639	370	230	409.0	139.5	269.5
3	Nick Castellanos	632	366	18	614.0	348.0	266.0
4	Matt Davidson	630	365	87	543.0	278.0	265.0
5	Robbie Grossman	628	364	288	340.0	76.0	264.0
6	L.J. Hoes	620	360	184	436.0	176.0	260.0
7	Jonathan Schoop	617	358	15	602.0	343.5	258.5
8	Derek Dietrich	615	358	233	382.0	124.5	257.5
9	Engel Beltre	614	357	42	572.0	315.0	257.0
10	Chris Owings	613	356	61	552.0	295.5	256.5

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Starlin Castro	0.2796	0.3375 (37.9)	0.3310 (30.7)	0.3358 (34.8)	0.3392 (40.9)
Matt Carpenter	0.3799	0.3306 (38.3)	0.3411 (33.5)	0.3351 (37.0)	0.3261 (39.7)
Jayson Werth	0.4043	0.3433 (34.6)	0.3496 (33.3)	0.3470 (34.1)	0.3396 (35.2)
Carlos Gómez	0.3635	0.3084 (34.9)	0.3097 (36.4)	0.3073 (37.2)	0.3095 (32.8)
Yasiel Puig	0.4020	0.3189 (37.7)	0.3189 (39.3)	0.3189 (38.8)	0.3189 (36.6)
Josh Donaldson	0.3844	0.3110 (51.8)	0.3057 (57.8)	0.3217 (46.4)	0.3002 (57.3)
Marlon Byrd	0.3644	0.2990 (40.2)	0.3116 (35.1)	0.3005 (40.9)	0.2975 (39.6)
Paul Goldschmidt	0.4109	0.3616 (37.9)	0.3521 (47.4)	0.3720 (32.4)	0.3511 (43.6)
Chris Davis	0.4254	0.3407 (59.8)	0.3343 (66.7)	0.3518 (54.1)	0.3295 (65.6)
Hanley Ramirez	0.4444	0.3432 (35.4)	0.3369 (38.8)	0.3431 (36.3)	0.3433 (34.5)
Paul Konerko	0.2997	0.3674 (33.0)	0.3840 (39.7)	0.3658 (30.8)	0.3689 (35.1)
Jason Castro	0.3635	0.3043 (31.1)	0.3089 (30.7)	0.3124 (28.4)	0.2962 (33.9)
Miguel Cabrera	0.4619	0.4169 (32.0)	0.4229 (30.6)	0.4217 (30.6)	0.4121 (33.5)
Mike Trout	0.4265	0.3765 (38.7)	0.3778 (40.5)	0.3782 (39.5)	0.3749 (38.1)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	B.J. Upton	0.3324	0.2528	33.7
2	Alcides Escobar	0.2981	0.2442	32.0
3	Shin-Soo Choo	0.3577	0.3931	28.1
4	Chris Johnson	0.3126	0.3575	26.8
5	Daniel Nava	0.3184	0.3640	26.7
6	Nick Markakis	0.3475	0.3060	26.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Josh Hamilton	0.3893	0.3216	38.0
2	Freddie Freeman	0.3410	0.3920	37.1
3	Michael Cuddyer	0.3389	0.3988	36.6
4	Pete Kozma	0.3343	0.2486	34.9
5	Shin-Soo Choo	0.3551	0.3931	32.6
6	Adam Lind	0.3192	0.3714	31.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Shin-Soo Choo	0.3491	0.3931	36.2
2	Alcides Escobar	0.3014	0.2442	32.4
3	B.J. Upton	0.3275	0.2528	30.3
4	Nick Markakis	0.3543	0.3060	29.0
5	Michael Cuddyer	0.3520	0.3988	28.9
6	Albert Pujols	0.4036	0.3359	27.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	B.J. Upton	0.3373	0.2528	37.0
2	Alcides Escobar	0.2948	0.2442	31.4
3	J.P. Arencibia	0.3199	0.2589	29.6
4	Chris Johnson	0.3071	0.3575	28.5
5	Daniel Nava	0.3126	0.3640	28.4
6	Anthony Rizzo	0.3704	0.3285	27.8

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Pete Kozma	0.3343	0.2733	0.2486	34.9	9.2	25.7
2	Eric Hosmer	0.3186	0.3417	0.3510	27.4	9.2	18.3
3	Josh Hamilton	0.3893	0.3580	0.3216	38.0	20.5	17.5
4	Domonic Brown	0.3146	0.3406	0.3541	25.6	9.5	16.1
5	Freddie Freeman	0.3410	0.3595	0.3920	37.1	23.0	14.1
6	Brandon Belt	0.3335	0.3528	0.3664	23.3	10.1	13.2
7	Michael Cuddyer	0.3389	0.3578	0.3988	36.6	24.3	12.3
8	Eric Sogard	0.2778	0.3048	0.3001	12.4	0.2	12.2
9	Donovan Solano	0.3165	0.2842	0.2790	11.7	0.4	11.3
10	Adam Lind	0.3192	0.3352	0.3714	31.3	21.0	10.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	David Ortiz	0.3829	0.3955	0.4127	22.0	12.8	9.2
2	Justin Upton	0.3800	0.3638	0.3584	9.5	0.8	8.7
3	Shin-Soo Choo	0.3491	0.3577	0.3931	36.2	28.1	8.1
4	Marcell Ozuna	0.2651	0.2853	0.3034	13.1	6.5	6.7
5	Anthony Rendon	0.2991	0.3132	0.3188	10.4	3.8	6.6
6	Jean Segura	0.3017	0.3094	0.3286	21.0	14.5	6.5
7	Robinson Canó	0.3686	0.3751	0.3911	20.0	13.7	6.2
8	Christian Yelich	0.2795	0.2990	0.3427	19.1	13.1	6.1
9	Evan Longoria	0.3884	0.3774	0.3650	11.5	5.7	5.8
10	Brandon Barnes	0.2995	0.2839	0.2792	6.0	0.3	5.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ed Lucas	0.3189	0.2889	0.2871	11.6	0.9	10.7
2	Justin Upton	0.3476	0.3638	0.3584	8.0	0.8	7.1
3	JB Shuck	0.2748	0.2921	0.3039	14.7	7.6	7.1
4	Jimmy Rollins	0.3270	0.3206	0.2974	18.7	12.8	5.9
5	Marco Scutaro	0.2957	0.3090	0.3193	13.8	7.9	5.9
6	Chris Davis	0.3295	0.3407	0.4254	65.6	59.8	5.8
7	Kevin Pillar	0.3189	0.2694	0.2548	6.9	1.2	5.7
8	Paul Goldschmidt	0.3511	0.3616	0.4109	43.6	37.9	5.6
9	Giancarlo Stanton	0.4157	0.4071	0.3713	21.6	15.9	5.6
10	Josh Donaldson	0.3002	0.3110	0.3844	57.3	51.8	5.5

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Juan Francisco	0.3584	0.2721 (29.9)	0.2642 (33.4)	0.2630 (31.2)	0.2811 (28.6)
Raul Ibanez	0.2581	0.1831 (32.9)	0.1744 (37.8)	0.1845 (29.4)	0.1816 (36.4)
Dan Uggla	0.3184	0.2424 (36.1)	0.2365 (40.0)	0.2437 (32.4)	0.2410 (39.9)
Marlon Byrd	0.2487	0.1739 (38.3)	0.1698 (41.3)	0.1810 (30.9)	0.1667 (45.7)
B.J. Upton	0.3386	0.2522 (34.6)	0.2534 (34.6)	0.2486 (33.7)	0.2558 (35.5)
Chris Carter	0.3624	0.2835 (41.0)	0.2684 (50.6)	0.2647 (48.7)	0.3023 (33.3)
J.J. Hardy	0.1134	0.1506 (29.7)	0.1574 (33.2)	0.1491 (32.3)	0.1521 (27.0)
Edwin Encarnación	0.0998	0.1514 (37.5)	0.1553 (39.1)	0.1497 (39.9)	0.1531 (35.0)
Everth Cabrera	0.1586	0.2193 (30.2)	0.2274 (33.2)	0.2141 (30.4)	0.2245 (30.0)
Ben Zobrist	0.1304	0.1694 (33.4)	0.1711 (33.7)	0.1656 (34.6)	0.1732 (32.1)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2438	0.2042	34.3
2	Starlin Castro	0.1280	0.1830	32.6
3	Matt Carpenter	0.1729	0.1367	32.2
4	Josh Donaldson	0.2038	0.1647	32.0
5	Yoenis Cespedes	0.1746	0.2387	31.8
6	Norichika Aoki	0.0956	0.0593	30.4
7	Kendrys Morales	0.2107	0.1735	30.2
8	Cody Ross	0.2182	0.1425	29.7
9	Jason Castro	0.1970	0.2648	29.0
10	Carlos González	0.1983	0.2706	27.7

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Andrelton Simmons	0.1567	0.0836	53.0
2	Norichika Aoki	0.1222	0.0593	47.4
3	Matt Carpenter	0.1872	0.1367	41.6
4	Oswaldo Arcia	0.1934	0.3095	41.1
5	Mike Napoli	0.2455	0.3235	40.8
6	Jonathan Lucroy	0.1718	0.1190	35.0
7	Josh Donaldson	0.2063	0.1647	32.8
8	Evan Longoria	0.1803	0.2338	31.9
9	Nolan Arenado	0.1934	0.1401	31.3
10	Brett Wallace	0.2493	0.3649	30.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Norichika Aoki	0.0998	0.0593	36.9
2	Kendrys Morales	0.2146	0.1735	36.4
3	Jason Castro	0.1831	0.2648	33.0
4	Matt Holliday	0.1816	0.1429	32.0
5	Cody Ross	0.2179	0.1425	31.5
6	Andrew McCutchen	0.1797	0.1499	29.8
7	Starlin Castro	0.1265	0.1830	29.7
8	Torii Hunter	0.2044	0.1733	29.6
9	Nate McLouth	0.1784	0.1450	28.3
10	Mike Napoli	0.2605	0.3235	28.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2698	0.2042	48.8
2	Yoenis Cespedes	0.1664	0.2387	39.7
3	Josh Donaldson	0.2206	0.1647	39.4
4	Matt Carpenter	0.1855	0.1367	37.2
5	Starlin Castro	0.1294	0.1830	35.5
6	Brandon Crawford	0.2316	0.1745	33.1
7	Joe Mauer	0.1171	0.1752	27.9
8	Carlos González	0.2035	0.2706	27.9
9	Cody Ross	0.2186	0.1425	27.8
10	Yan Gomes	0.2883	0.2081	26.8

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Andrelton Simmons	0.1567	0.0996	0.0836	53.0	16.3	36.7
2	JB Shuck	0.1643	0.1019	0.1130	28.1	1.1	27.0
3	Brandon Barnes	0.2148	0.2735	0.2854	28.1	1.4	26.7
4	Eric Sogard	0.1774	0.1225	0.1244	24.8	2.8	22.0
5	Jonathan Villar	0.1934	0.2808	0.2946	22.6	1.2	21.4
6	Nolan Arenado	0.1934	0.1083	0.1401	31.3	11.8	19.4
7	Oswaldo Arcia	0.1934	0.2401	0.3095	41.1	22.9	18.1
8	Jean Segura	0.1706	0.1417	0.1348	27.0	9.7	17.3
9	Norichika Aoki	0.1222	0.0956	0.0593	47.4	30.4	17.1
10	Junior Lake	0.1934	0.2563	0.2677	17.0	0.7	16.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brandon Barnes	0.2340	0.2735	0.2854	16.5	1.4	15.1
2	Jedd Gyorko	0.1800	0.2022	0.2343	21.0	12.2	8.7
3	David Ortiz	0.1645	0.1564	0.1467	19.4	11.1	8.2
4	Chris Carter	0.2647	0.2835	0.3624	48.7	41.0	7.7
5	Pete Kozma	0.1674	0.1896	0.2031	9.6	2.2	7.4
6	Robbie Grossman	0.1986	0.2291	0.2431	8.7	1.5	7.2
7	Denard Span	0.1136	0.1087	0.1163	7.7	0.8	6.9
8	Justin Upton	0.1930	0.2092	0.2504	27.6	20.8	6.8
9	Will Middlebrooks	0.2225	0.2462	0.2620	9.4	2.6	6.8
10	Norichika Aoki	0.0998	0.0956	0.0593	36.9	30.4	6.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2698	0.2438	0.2042	48.8	34.3	14.4
2	Brandon Barnes	0.3130	0.2735	0.2854	13.7	1.4	12.3
3	Derek Norris	0.3000	0.2612	0.2305	22.4	12.1	10.2
4	Brandon Crawford	0.2316	0.2085	0.1745	33.1	23.5	9.6
5	Wil Myers	0.2792	0.2514	0.2440	14.3	6.0	8.3
6	Yoenis Cespedes	0.1664	0.1746	0.2387	39.7	31.8	7.9
7	Domonic Brown	0.2093	0.1892	0.1796	17.7	9.9	7.8
8	Pedro Florimón	0.2834	0.2604	0.2578	12.8	5.1	7.7
9	Wilin Rosario	0.2489	0.2273	0.2339	8.5	1.0	7.5
10	Josh Donaldson	0.2206	0.2038	0.1647	39.4	32.0	7.5

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Paul Goldschmidt	0.1394	0.1064 (24.0)	0.0981 (31.0)	0.1105 (22.7)	0.1023 (25.3)
Chris Davis	0.1070	0.0695 (25.8)	0.0709 (25.8)	0.0746 (23.9)	0.0643 (27.8)
Josh Donaldson	0.1138	0.0759 (25.8)	0.0630 (35.4)	0.0788 (25.4)	0.0729 (26.3)
Carlos Beltrán	0.0633	0.1088 (26.8)	0.1077 (25.3)	0.1106 (26.5)	0.1071 (27.1)
Torii Hunter	0.0399	0.0763 (23.2)	0.0830 (26.6)	0.0810 (24.8)	0.0716 (21.6)
Prince Fielder	0.1053	0.1408 (24.7)	0.1352 (19.6)	0.1431 (24.7)	0.1384 (24.6)
Shin-Soo Choo	0.1573	0.1094 (34.6)	0.1078 (36.8)	0.1094 (36.3)	0.1094 (33.1)
Giancarlo Stanton	0.1468	0.1053 (21.3)	0.0970 (26.3)	0.1070 (21.6)	0.1037 (21.0)
Mike Trout	0.1536	0.1011 (38.2)	0.0955 (43.3)	0.1000 (40.6)	0.1022 (35.8)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Gordon	0.1067	0.0743	22.1
2	Manny Machado	0.0719	0.0408	21.5
3	Ben Zobrist	0.1322	0.1032	19.7
4	Shane Victorino	0.0835	0.0470	19.0
5	Brett Gardner	0.1168	0.0854	18.7
6	Jason Kipnis	0.0892	0.1155	17.8
7	Didi Gregorius	0.0486	0.0916	17.7
8	Adam Dunn	0.1550	0.1252	17.6
9	Kyle Seager	0.0733	0.0978	17.6
10	Brandon Belt	0.1219	0.0911	17.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joey Votto	0.1516	0.1860	26.6
2	Jean Segura	0.0819	0.0401	24.6
3	Billy Butler	0.0896	0.1183	20.7
4	Edwin Encarnación	0.1012	0.1320	20.6
5	Kyle Seager	0.0721	0.0978	19.5
6	Ike Davis	0.1047	0.1512	18.4
7	Shane Victorino	0.0838	0.0470	18.3
8	Lucas Duda	0.0979	0.1432	18.3
9	Chris Iannetta	0.1277	0.1704	17.9
10	Bryce Harper	0.0900	0.1227	17.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Gordon	0.1080	0.0743	21.4
2	Shane Victorino	0.0900	0.0470	21.2
3	Manny Machado	0.0727	0.0408	20.4
4	Ben Zobrist	0.1337	0.1032	19.2
5	Adrián González	0.1062	0.0733	19.1
6	Jason Kipnis	0.0913	0.1155	18.0
7	Didi Gregorius	0.0517	0.0916	17.4
8	Brett Gardner	0.1167	0.0854	17.2
9	Chris Iannetta	0.1310	0.1704	17.0
10	Anthony Rizzo	0.0888	0.1101	16.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Gordon	0.1053	0.0743	22.7
2	Manny Machado	0.0711	0.0408	22.5
3	Ben Zobrist	0.1307	0.1032	20.2
4	Brett Gardner	0.1170	0.0854	20.1
5	Adam Dunn	0.1555	0.1252	19.3
6	Munenori Kawasaki	0.0428	0.1107	19.2
7	Brandon Belt	0.1232	0.0911	19.1
8	Kyle Seager	0.0694	0.0978	18.8
9	Jed Lowrie	0.1024	0.0755	18.7
10	Didi Gregorius	0.0455	0.0916	18.1

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jean Segura	0.0819	0.0570	0.0401	24.6	10.0	14.6
2	Nolan Arenado	0.0807	0.0549	0.0447	17.3	4.8	12.5
3	Juan Lagares	0.0807	0.0467	0.0475	13.0	0.7	12.3
4	Joey Votto	0.1516	0.1658	0.1860	26.6	15.2	11.4
5	Derek Norris	0.0862	0.1181	0.1201	11.2	0.9	10.3
6	Josh Donaldson	0.0630	0.0759	0.1138	35.4	25.8	9.6
7	David Lough	0.0766	0.0479	0.0299	14.9	5.8	9.1
8	Starling Marte	0.0638	0.0466	0.0442	9.8	0.9	8.9
9	Avisaíl García	0.0766	0.0309	0.0352	10.0	1.3	8.7
10	Jose Iglesias	0.0726	0.0507	0.0393	11.9	4.1	7.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Derek Norris	0.1064	0.1181	0.1201	5.2	0.9	4.3
2	Christian Yelich	0.0650	0.0732	0.1136	14.1	11.2	2.9
3	Martín Prado	0.0781	0.0717	0.0708	2.8	0.1	2.7
4	Victor Martinez	0.0890	0.0826	0.0808	3.4	0.7	2.7
5	Mike Trout	0.1000	0.1011	0.1536	40.6	38.2	2.4
6	Hunter Pence	0.0853	0.0795	0.0757	4.5	2.1	2.4
7	Adrián González	0.1062	0.1002	0.0733	19.1	16.7	2.4
8	Brian Dozier	0.0590	0.0604	0.0819	16.2	13.9	2.3
9	Nick Swisher	0.1319	0.1259	0.1215	4.6	2.3	2.3
10	Shane Victorino	0.0900	0.0835	0.0470	21.2	19.0	2.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Anthony Rendon	0.1034	0.0893	0.0787	10.3	3.9	6.4
2	Ed Lucas	0.0807	0.0690	0.0677	5.5	0.2	5.3
3	Kevin Pillar	0.0807	0.0422	0.0364	5.0	0.6	4.5
4	Norichika Aoki	0.0615	0.0700	0.0816	12.6	8.4	4.2
5	Austin Jackson	0.1019	0.0978	0.0847	11.5	7.6	3.9
6	Robbie Grossman	0.1210	0.1098	0.0799	12.3	8.4	3.9
7	Raul Ibanez	0.0667	0.0765	0.0847	8.2	4.5	3.8
8	Jed Lowrie	0.1024	0.0995	0.0755	18.7	15.3	3.4
9	Matt Carpenter	0.1129	0.1106	0.1004	10.0	6.8	3.2
10	Munenori Kawasaki	0.0428	0.0558	0.1107	19.2	16.1	3.1

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Shane Victorino	0.0338	0.0097 (12.8)	0.0103 (12.5)	0.0100 (12.7)	0.0094 (13.0)
Ryan Doumit	0.0019	0.0114 (5.1)	0.0124 (5.7)	0.0110 (4.9)	0.0118 (5.4)
Neil Walker	0.0272	0.0054 (12.0)	0.0056 (11.9)	0.0060 (11.7)	0.0049 (12.3)
Yasiel Puig	0.0255	0.0085 (7.3)	0.0085 (7.3)	0.0085 (7.3)	0.0085 (7.3)
Jose Iglesias	0.0288	0.0094 (7.4)	0.0161 (4.8)	0.0090 (7.6)	0.0099 (7.2)
Chase Utley	0.0094	0.0287 (10.2)	0.0286 (10.3)	0.0240 (7.7)	0.0333 (12.7)
Chase Headley	0.0183	0.0054 (7.7)	0.0051 (7.9)	0.0060 (7.4)	0.0049 (8.1)
Placido Polanco	0.0216	0.0066 (6.2)	0.0074 (5.9)	0.0080 (5.7)	0.0052 (6.8)
Welington Castillo	0.0257	0.0127 (5.6)	0.0099 (6.7)	0.0120 (5.9)	0.0133 (5.3)
Allen Craig	0.0178	0.0050 (7.1)	0.0042 (7.6)	0.0060 (6.6)	0.0041 (7.7)
Prince Fielder	0.0126	0.0207 (5.7)	0.0212 (6.1)	0.0190 (4.5)	0.0223 (6.9)
Shin-Soo Choo	0.0365	0.0181 (13.1)	0.0174 (13.6)	0.0160 (14.6)	0.0202 (11.6)
Todd Frazier	0.0233	0.0104 (7.7)	0.0089 (8.6)	0.0100 (8.0)	0.0109 (7.4)
Starling Marte	0.0424	0.0179 (13.9)	0.0134 (16.4)	0.0150 (15.5)	0.0208 (12.2)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kevin Frandsen	0.0206	0.0396	5.3
2	Jason Heyward	0.0065	0.0182	5.1
3	Eric Young Jr.	0.0116	0.0033	5.0
4	Josh Willingham	0.0193	0.0297	4.9
5	Lucas Duda	0.0108	0.0234	4.8
6	Brandon Barnes	0.0075	0.0180	4.7

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kevin Frandsen	0.0132	0.0396	7.3
2	Eric Young Jr.	0.0124	0.0033	5.5
3	Derek Dietrich	0.0085	0.0300	5.0
4	Mark Trumbo	0.0072	0.0000	4.9
5	Pablo Sandoval	0.0021	0.0103	4.7
6	Chris Davis	0.0079	0.0149	4.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kevin Frandsen	0.0180	0.0396	6.0
2	Josh Willingham	0.0170	0.0297	6.0
3	Daniel Nava	0.0180	0.0280	5.4
4	Lucas Duda	0.0110	0.0234	4.8
5	Mark Trumbo	0.0070	0.0000	4.7
6	Jason Heyward	0.0080	0.0182	4.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Young Jr.	0.0133	0.0033	6.0
2	Jason Heyward	0.0051	0.0182	5.8
3	Carlos Quentin	0.0451	0.0281	5.5
4	Pablo Sandoval	0.0018	0.0103	4.9
5	Lucas Duda	0.0107	0.0234	4.9
6	Brandon Barnes	0.0070	0.0180	4.9

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jean Segura	0.0034	0.0087	0.0096	3.8	0.6	3.2
2	Starling Marte	0.0134	0.0179	0.0424	16.4	13.9	2.5
3	Conor Gillaspie	0.0093	0.0043	0.0022	3.2	0.9	2.3
4	Chris Stewart	0.0068	0.0132	0.0176	3.7	1.5	2.2
5	Chris Carter	0.0029	0.0070	0.0068	2.2	0.1	2.1
6	Kevin Frandsen	0.0132	0.0206	0.0396	7.3	5.3	2.0
7	Derek Dietrich	0.0085	0.0171	0.0300	5.0	3.0	2.0
8	Alex Gordon	0.0063	0.0091	0.0129	4.5	2.6	1.9
9	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0072	0.0041	0.0000	4.2	2.4	1.8
10	Darin Ruf	0.0090	0.0151	0.0239	4.3	2.6	1.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Norichika Aoki	0.0120	0.0147	0.0163	2.9	1.1	1.8
2	Starling Marte	0.0150	0.0179	0.0424	15.5	13.9	1.6
3	Shin-Soo Choo	0.0160	0.0181	0.0365	14.6	13.1	1.5
4	Daniel Murphy	0.0060	0.0041	0.0029	2.2	0.8	1.3
5	Jon Jay	0.0160	0.0180	0.0223	4.0	2.7	1.3
6	David Ortiz	0.0040	0.0020	0.0017	1.4	0.2	1.2
7	Craig Gentry	0.0190	0.0229	0.0279	2.6	1.4	1.1
8	Josh Willingham	0.0170	0.0193	0.0297	6.0	4.9	1.1
9	Chris Stewart	0.0100	0.0132	0.0176	2.6	1.5	1.1
10	Lance Berkman	0.0070	0.0035	0.0000	2.1	1.0	1.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chase Utley	0.0333	0.0287	0.0094	12.7	10.2	2.5
2	Carlos Quentin	0.0451	0.0386	0.0281	5.5	3.3	2.1
3	Adam Eaton	0.0292	0.0241	0.0217	2.1	0.7	1.4
4	Marlon Byrd	0.0215	0.0193	0.0138	4.5	3.2	1.3
5	Prince Fielder	0.0223	0.0207	0.0126	6.9	5.7	1.2
6	Adam Jones	0.0182	0.0166	0.0116	4.6	3.4	1.1
7	Evan Gattis	0.0177	0.0148	0.0105	2.8	1.7	1.1
8	Kelly Shoppach	0.0377	0.0293	0.0236	1.8	0.7	1.1
9	Carlos Ruiz	0.0261	0.0231	0.0205	1.9	0.9	1.1
10	Pedro Álvarez	0.0016	0.0033	0.0065	3.0	2.0	1.0

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jimmy Rollins	0.0117	0.0343 (15.1)	0.0361 (15.5)	0.0322 (13.7)	0.0364 (16.5)
Raul Ibanez	0.0890	0.0418 (23.4)	0.0448 (22.5)	0.0403 (24.1)	0.0432 (22.7)
Chris Davis	0.1352	0.0758 (40.0)	0.0640 (48.6)	0.0792 (37.7)	0.0723 (42.3)
Marlon Byrd	0.0606	0.0254 (20.4)	0.0249 (21.3)	0.0263 (19.9)	0.0245 (20.9)
Ryan Raburn	0.0904	0.0413 (13.6)	0.0372 (15.0)	0.0410 (13.7)	0.0415 (13.5)
Paul Konerko	0.0302	0.0607 (15.9)	0.0648 (17.4)	0.0590 (14.9)	0.0625 (16.8)
Carlos González	0.0942	0.0648 (12.8)	0.0593 (15.7)	0.0642 (13.1)	0.0655 (12.5)
Jason Castro	0.0583	0.0248 (16.4)	0.0282 (15.3)	0.0268 (15.5)	0.0228 (17.4)
Miguel Cabrera	0.0950	0.0716 (15.2)	0.0713 (16.2)	0.0712 (15.5)	0.0720 (15.0)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brandon Moss	0.0624	0.0971	17.5
2	Anthony Rizzo	0.0697	0.0478	15.1
3	Brian Dozier	0.0167	0.0404	14.7
4	Coco Crisp	0.0230	0.0480	14.6
5	Giancarlo Stanton	0.1106	0.0839	13.5
6	Jeff Baker	0.0283	0.1028	13.0
7	Dustin Pedroia	0.0335	0.0157	12.9
8	Allen Craig	0.0543	0.0315	12.9
9	Ben Zobrist	0.0408	0.0227	12.6
10	Prince Fielder	0.0665	0.0489	12.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Pedro Álvarez	0.0612	0.0957	21.9
2	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0487	0.0778	21.4
3	Domonic Brown	0.0336	0.0670	18.6
4	Chris Carter	0.0667	0.0970	18.4
5	Josh Hamilton	0.0752	0.0492	15.8
6	Evan Gattis	0.0374	0.0761	15.2
7	Juan Francisco	0.0474	0.0849	14.9
8	Matt Adams	0.0339	0.0787	14.6
9	Jayson Werth	0.0421	0.0683	14.5
10	Brett Wallace	0.0331	0.0823	14.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brandon Moss	0.0640	0.0971	16.7
2	Pedro Álvarez	0.0703	0.0957	15.7
3	Anthony Rizzo	0.0698	0.0478	15.2
4	Domonic Brown	0.0392	0.0670	15.0
5	Brian Dozier	0.0166	0.0404	14.8
6	Allen Craig	0.0562	0.0315	13.9
7	Coco Crisp	0.0242	0.0480	13.9
8	Prince Fielder	0.0679	0.0489	13.5
9	Will Venable	0.0355	0.0601	12.7
10	Jeff Baker	0.0312	0.1028	12.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brandon Moss	0.0607	0.0971	18.4
2	Giancarlo Stanton	0.1145	0.0839	15.4
3	Coco Crisp	0.0218	0.0480	15.3
4	Anthony Rizzo	0.0695	0.0478	15.0
5	Brian Dozier	0.0167	0.0404	14.7
6	Dustin Pedroia	0.0350	0.0157	14.0
7	Carlos Pena	0.0845	0.0423	13.8
8	Matt Kemp	0.0785	0.0316	13.6
9	Jeff Baker	0.0253	0.1028	13.6
10	Ben Zobrist	0.0410	0.0227	12.8

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0487	0.0649	0.0778	21.4	9.1	12.3
2	Chris Carter	0.0667	0.0826	0.0970	18.4	8.4	10.0
3	Pedro Álvarez	0.0612	0.0756	0.0957	21.9	12.3	9.6
4	Juan Lagares	0.0374	0.0153	0.0132	9.7	0.9	8.8
5	Chris Davis	0.0640	0.0758	0.1352	48.6	40.0	8.7
6	JB Shuck	0.0253	0.0030	0.0051	9.2	0.9	8.2
7	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0299	0.0150	0.0066	12.8	4.9	7.9
8	Domonic Brown	0.0336	0.0455	0.0670	18.6	11.6	7.0
9	Norichika Aoki	0.0260	0.0146	0.0141	7.3	0.4	6.9
10	Shin-Soo Choo	0.0390	0.0475	0.0476	6.9	0.1	6.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Shin-Soo Choo	0.0419	0.0475	0.0476	4.1	0.1	4.0
2	Domonic Brown	0.0392	0.0455	0.0670	15.0	11.6	3.4
3	Pedro Álvarez	0.0703	0.0756	0.0957	15.7	12.3	3.3
4	Alfonso Soriano	0.0611	0.0660	0.0793	11.3	8.3	3.1
5	Mike Trout	0.0536	0.0578	0.0586	3.5	0.5	3.0
6	Nick Swisher	0.0587	0.0542	0.0530	3.6	0.8	2.9
7	Evan Longoria	0.0739	0.0701	0.0699	2.8	0.2	2.6
8	Kendrys Morales	0.0622	0.0582	0.0470	10.0	7.4	2.6
9	Dexter Fowler	0.0277	0.0327	0.0380	5.1	2.6	2.5
10	Bryce Harper	0.0503	0.0546	0.0593	4.5	2.3	2.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Shin-Soo Choo	0.0530	0.0475	0.0476	3.9	0.1	3.8
2	David Ortiz	0.0767	0.0704	0.0690	4.6	0.9	3.7
3	Justin Upton	0.0507	0.0564	0.0672	10.6	6.9	3.7
4	Wil Myers	0.0667	0.0576	0.0524	5.3	1.9	3.4
5	Mike Napoli	0.0902	0.0844	0.0737	9.5	6.2	3.3
6	Ed Lucas	0.0374	0.0289	0.0144	8.9	5.6	3.3
7	Mark DeRosa	0.0000	0.0126	0.0443	10.4	7.5	3.0
8	Adam Dunn	0.1062	0.1015	0.1003	3.6	0.8	2.8
9	Anthony Rendon	0.0377	0.0305	0.0242	5.3	2.5	2.8
10	Hunter Pence	0.0368	0.0406	0.0522	10.6	8.0	2.6

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jhonny Peralta	0.3729	0.2910 (35.9)	0.2916 (37.1)	0.2899 (36.0)	0.2922 (35.8)
Freddie Freeman	0.3714	0.3078 (38.9)	0.3083 (40.6)	0.3061 (39.4)	0.3095 (38.4)
Carlos Gómez	0.3432	0.2890 (30.9)	0.2871 (33.9)	0.2892 (30.3)	0.2888 (31.6)
Darwin Barney	0.2195	0.2933 (42.0)	0.2883 (37.4)	0.2905 (40.9)	0.2960 (43.0)
Yasiel Puig	0.3829	0.2973 (36.2)	0.2973 (37.6)	0.2973 (35.9)	0.2973 (36.6)
Andrelton Simmons	0.2449	0.2934 (33.1)	0.3004 (35.6)	0.2909 (31.9)	0.2959 (34.1)
Dan Uggla	0.2248	0.2827 (32.1)	0.2886 (33.5)	0.2808 (31.5)	0.2845 (32.5)
Josh Donaldson	0.3319	0.2769 (35.5)	0.2822 (34.1)	0.2772 (34.8)	0.2765 (36.4)
Chris Johnson	0.3943	0.3188 (40.3)	0.3353 (33.1)	0.3209 (38.7)	0.3167 (42.0)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	0.3723	0.2878 (38.8)	0.2826 (42.8)	0.2856 (39.5)	0.2902 (38.2)
Mike Napoli	0.3668	0.2981 (38.7)	0.2984 (40.3)	0.2987 (37.8)	0.2974 (39.6)
David Murphy	0.2268	0.3052 (38.2)	0.3132 (40.5)	0.3069 (39.4)	0.3035 (36.9)
Michael Cuddyer	0.3817	0.3024 (41.8)	0.2969 (46.6)	0.2999 (42.8)	0.3049 (41.0)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Carpenter	0.3066	0.3567	34.6
2	Marlon Byrd	0.2906	0.3522	34.6
3	Anthony Rizzo	0.3023	0.2576	32.1
4	Justin Ruggiano	0.3230	0.2585	31.3
5	Jed Lowrie	0.2687	0.3175	31.1
6	Colby Rasmus	0.2875	0.3563	30.7
7	Mike Trout	0.3313	0.3756	30.4

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Justin Ruggiano	0.3375	0.2585	36.6
2	Eric Hosmer	0.2837	0.3346	35.6
3	Jose Iglesias	0.2616	0.3515	34.9
4	Colby Rasmus	0.2822	0.3563	34.6
5	Jason Kipnis	0.2941	0.3413	32.0
6	Jason Castro	0.2905	0.3505	30.2
7	Starling Marte	0.3065	0.3569	29.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Marlon Byrd	0.2908	0.3522	34.0
2	Matt Carpenter	0.3087	0.3567	32.6
3	Colby Rasmus	0.2850	0.3563	31.5
4	Alcides Escobar	0.3055	0.2594	31.3
5	Jed Lowrie	0.2689	0.3175	30.4
6	Jason Kipnis	0.2941	0.3413	29.3
7	Manny Machado	0.2732	0.3170	29.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Anthony Rizzo	0.3108	0.2576	37.3
2	Matt Carpenter	0.3045	0.3567	36.9
3	Mike Trout	0.3242	0.3756	36.2
4	Marlon Byrd	0.2903	0.3522	35.3
5	Justin Ruggiano	0.3298	0.2585	34.0
6	Jed Lowrie	0.2684	0.3175	31.9
7	Allen Craig	0.3110	0.3675	31.3

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Pete Kozma	0.3176	0.2683	0.2733	19.2	1.4	17.8
2	AJ Pollock	0.2793	0.3062	0.3109	15.9	1.4	14.5
3	Starling Marte	0.3065	0.3287	0.3569	29.3	14.9	14.4
4	Adrián González	0.3396	0.3149	0.3150	14.8	1.1	13.8
5	Eric Sogard	0.2500	0.2800	0.2954	19.2	5.6	13.6
6	Chris Carter	0.2806	0.3006	0.3111	18.7	5.1	13.6
7	Matt Dominguez	0.2938	0.2686	0.2529	23.3	10.3	13.0
8	Leonys Martin	0.2857	0.3074	0.3083	12.2	0.4	11.8
9	Jose Iglesias	0.2616	0.2859	0.3515	34.9	24.4	10.5
10	Donovan Solano	0.3295	0.3000	0.2852	16.9	6.5	10.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Marcell Ozuna	0.2493	0.2747	0.3241	21.0	13.8	7.1
2	Torii Hunter	0.3142	0.3256	0.3415	16.1	9.2	6.9
3	Josh Hamilton	0.3197	0.3114	0.3030	12.3	6.5	5.8
4	Austin Jackson	0.3474	0.3389	0.3309	11.7	6.0	5.7
5	Christian Yelich	0.2838	0.3045	0.3801	25.6	20.2	5.4
6	Ichiro Suzuki	0.3118	0.3032	0.2817	18.2	13.0	5.2
7	Todd Helton	0.3099	0.3003	0.2800	14.4	9.7	4.6
8	Manny Machado	0.2732	0.2805	0.3170	29.2	24.7	4.6
9	Yoenis Cespedes	0.3126	0.3055	0.2737	23.8	19.3	4.5
10	Matt Holliday	0.3273	0.3197	0.3221	4.7	0.4	4.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Marco Scutaro	0.2779	0.2880	0.3082	16.1	10.1	6.0
2	Mike Trout	0.3242	0.3313	0.3756	36.2	30.4	5.7
3	Pedro Florimón	0.3230	0.3092	0.2787	20.1	14.4	5.7
4	Anthony Rizzo	0.3108	0.3023	0.2576	37.3	32.1	5.2
5	Didi Gregorius	0.3091	0.2955	0.2872	9.2	4.1	5.1
6	Matt Holliday	0.3122	0.3197	0.3221	5.5	0.4	5.1
7	JB Shuck	0.2778	0.2865	0.3198	19.7	15.1	4.6
8	Andrew McCutchen	0.3169	0.3226	0.3527	23.6	19.1	4.5
9	Bryce Harper	0.3140	0.3041	0.3028	6.0	1.5	4.5
10	Giancarlo Stanton	0.3218	0.3125	0.3130	4.9	0.7	4.2

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Freddie Freeman	0.3010	0.2235 (45.5)	0.2280 (45.1)	0.2209 (46.0)	0.2262 (45.1)
Jayson Werth	0.2874	0.2241 (31.0)	0.2308 (29.4)	0.2249 (29.6)	0.2233 (32.5)
Darwin Barney	0.1606	0.2296 (41.1)	0.2252 (36.6)	0.2251 (39.6)	0.2340 (42.4)
Yasiel Puig	0.2974	0.2248 (29.2)	0.2248 (30.8)	0.2248 (28.4)	0.2248 (30.1)
Andrelton Simmons	0.1842	0.2243 (29.8)	0.2332 (33.1)	0.2193 (27.6)	0.2294 (31.8)
Daniel Nava	0.2685	0.2078 (29.8)	0.2017 (35.1)	0.2134 (25.8)	0.2022 (33.9)
Chris Johnson	0.3067	0.2317 (38.3)	0.2441 (33.5)	0.2329 (36.6)	0.2306 (40.0)
Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.1841	0.2253 (26.0)	0.2308 (26.9)	0.2243 (26.5)	0.2263 (25.4)
Allen Craig	0.2900	0.2294 (31.3)	0.2292 (33.5)	0.2321 (28.7)	0.2267 (33.9)
David Murphy	0.1530	0.2311 (39.6)	0.2418 (42.9)	0.2281 (39.0)	0.2341 (40.1)
Miguel Cabrera	0.2912	0.2375 (31.7)	0.2422 (31.1)	0.2377 (30.3)	0.2373 (33.2)
Michael Cuddyer	0.2903	0.2109 (40.2)	0.2094 (43.0)	0.2102 (39.5)	0.2115 (40.9)
Anthony Rizzo	0.1659	0.2184 (39.7)	0.2238 (40.8)	0.2082 (33.9)	0.2289 (45.6)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joey Votto	0.2371	0.2824	29.2
2	Gerardo Parra	0.2426	0.2072	26.9
3	Chris Davis	0.2418	0.2094	25.2
4	Josh Donaldson	0.2020	0.2434	24.3
5	Nate Schierholtz	0.2128	0.1700	24.1
6	Adrian Beltré	0.2211	0.2610	24.0
7	Matt Wieters	0.2119	0.1756	24.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jose Iglesias	0.1977	0.2901	34.8
2	Chris Davis	0.2508	0.2094	28.7
3	Nate Schierholtz	0.2239	0.1700	27.8
4	Eric Hosmer	0.2212	0.2622	27.1
5	Wilin Rosario	0.2128	0.2719	26.9
6	Jhonny Peralta	0.2148	0.2739	25.9
7	Mitch Moreland	0.2264	0.1788	25.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Gerardo Parra	0.2421	0.2072	27.8
2	Wilin Rosario	0.2083	0.2719	26.4
3	Jhonny Peralta	0.2110	0.2739	25.1
4	Joey Votto	0.2409	0.2824	25.0
5	Eric Hosmer	0.2186	0.2622	25.0
6	Adrian Beltré	0.2190	0.2610	24.2
7	Nate Schierholtz	0.2106	0.1700	23.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joey Votto	0.2332	0.2824	33.4
2	Mark Trumbo	0.2324	0.1946	27.7
3	Chris Davis	0.2461	0.2094	26.7
4	Josh Donaldson	0.2011	0.2434	26.2
5	Gerardo Parra	0.2432	0.2072	25.9
6	Dan Uggla	0.2182	0.1744	25.2
7	Brandon Barnes	0.1977	0.2562	24.7

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Norichika Aoki	0.2133	0.2382	0.2500	23.8	4.5	19.3
2	Leonys Martin	0.1925	0.2218	0.2333	20.1	3.3	16.8
3	Jose Iglesias	0.1977	0.2372	0.2901	34.8	18.3	16.5
4	Matt Dominguez	0.2268	0.2022	0.1954	19.3	7.0	12.3
5	Evan Gattis	0.2248	0.1913	0.1725	20.4	9.1	11.3
6	Brandon Moss	0.2275	0.2031	0.2079	10.5	0.1	10.4
7	Donovan Solano	0.2644	0.2340	0.2393	10.4	0.1	10.3
8	Domonic Brown	0.2000	0.2151	0.2207	10.5	0.3	10.2
9	Jonathan Lucroy	0.2516	0.2323	0.2195	19.4	10.4	9.0
10	Neil Walker	0.2414	0.2220	0.1974	24.9	16.3	8.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ichiro Suzuki	0.2582	0.2474	0.2424	12.6	5.6	7.0
2	Austin Jackson	0.2585	0.2517	0.2422	14.3	8.9	5.3
3	Evan Gattis	0.2024	0.1913	0.1725	14.0	9.1	5.0
4	Wilin Rosario	0.2083	0.2206	0.2719	26.4	21.6	4.8
5	Chris Carter	0.2168	0.2090	0.2148	5.2	0.5	4.8
6	Josh Hamilton	0.2315	0.2261	0.2118	16.9	12.3	4.6
7	Todd Helton	0.2259	0.2186	0.2033	13.0	9.0	4.0
8	Wil Myers	0.2206	0.2334	0.2638	13.5	9.5	4.0
9	Kendrys Morales	0.2180	0.2256	0.2361	7.3	3.5	3.8
10	Chris Iannetta	0.1907	0.2008	0.2156	7.2	3.9	3.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Torii Hunter	0.2789	0.2605	0.2556	17.2	6.5	10.7
2	Mike Trout	0.2352	0.2442	0.2650	19.1	11.3	7.9
3	Starling Marte	0.2236	0.2325	0.2589	18.2	12.1	6.1
4	Chris Carter	0.2007	0.2090	0.2148	6.5	0.5	6.0
5	Anthony Rizzo	0.2289	0.2184	0.1659	45.6	39.7	5.9
6	Pedro Florimón	0.2500	0.2357	0.2195	15.0	9.5	5.5
7	Munenori Kawasaki	0.2451	0.2263	0.2038	12.8	8.0	4.9
8	Marco Scutaro	0.2188	0.2250	0.2522	16.6	12.1	4.5
9	Grégor Blanco	0.2162	0.2228	0.2611	21.4	17.0	4.4
10	Joey Votto	0.2332	0.2371	0.2824	33.4	29.2	4.2

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Matt Carpenter	0.1044	0.0731 (23.6)	0.0817 (17.2)	0.0745 (23.8)	0.0716 (23.5)
Chris Davis	0.1239	0.0805 (30.4)	0.0717 (36.1)	0.0830 (29.8)	0.0779 (31.0)
Marlon Byrd	0.0941	0.0650 (17.8)	0.0638 (18.3)	0.0692 (16.3)	0.0609 (19.3)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	0.1460	0.0820 (30.9)	0.0797 (31.8)	0.0793 (32.9)	0.0848 (28.8)
Jay Bruce	0.1031	0.0742 (21.4)	0.0769 (19.2)	0.0729 (23.4)	0.0755 (19.3)
Jason Castro	0.1203	0.0648 (28.1)	0.0664 (27.1)	0.0673 (27.7)	0.0623 (28.5)
Nick Markakis	0.0432	0.0737 (20.1)	0.0707 (18.3)	0.0773 (21.5)	0.0701 (18.7)
Manny Machado	0.0924	0.0640 (21.4)	0.0578 (25.5)	0.0636 (22.8)	0.0645 (19.9)
Yadier Molina	0.0998	0.0608 (22.0)	0.0630 (20.6)	0.0642 (21.0)	0.0573 (23.0)
Mike Napoli	0.1315	0.0776 (32.2)	0.0736 (34.2)	0.0776 (33.1)	0.0776 (31.2)
Jason Kipnis	0.0859	0.0606 (17.8)	0.0563 (20.4)	0.0640 (16.7)	0.0571 (19.0)
Alex Gordon	0.0565	0.0884 (21.2)	0.0922 (24.1)	0.0885 (20.1)	0.0884 (22.2)
Mike Trout	0.0899	0.0658 (18.5)	0.0672 (17.2)	0.0675 (18.4)	0.0639 (18.7)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joey Votto	0.0986	0.0706	19.1
2	Joe Mauer	0.0676	0.1009	17.8
3	Josh Rutledge	0.0828	0.0271	16.9
4	Brett Gardner	0.0537	0.0797	16.9
5	Mark Reynolds	0.0858	0.0513	16.5
6	Dan Uggla	0.0704	0.0388	16.0
7	Adam Dunn	0.0772	0.0492	16.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Norichika Aoki	0.0747	0.0357	25.3
2	Joey Votto	0.1051	0.0706	24.1
3	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0718	0.0312	22.7
4	Miguel Cabrera	0.0911	0.0621	18.1
5	Adam Dunn	0.0794	0.0492	17.5
6	Brett Gardner	0.0524	0.0797	17.5
7	Brian Dozier	0.0505	0.0771	17.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joe Mauer	0.0695	0.1009	17.7
2	Dan Uggla	0.0745	0.0388	17.4
3	Miguel Montero	0.0853	0.0470	16.6
4	Josh Rutledge	0.0831	0.0271	16.5
5	Miguel Cabrera	0.0902	0.0621	16.2
6	Colby Rasmus	0.0684	0.0996	15.8
7	Mark Reynolds	0.0853	0.0513	15.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joey Votto	0.1020	0.0706	22.8
2	Brett Gardner	0.0464	0.0797	20.3
3	Joe Mauer	0.0659	0.1009	17.8
4	Mark Reynolds	0.0863	0.0513	17.6
5	Adam Dunn	0.0779	0.0492	17.3
6	Josh Rutledge	0.0825	0.0271	17.3
7	Adam LaRoche	0.0803	0.0522	16.5

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Norichika Aoki	0.0747	0.0600	0.0357	25.3	15.2	10.2
2	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0718	0.0553	0.0312	22.7	12.9	9.8
3	Anthony Rizzo	0.0650	0.0795	0.0873	16.4	6.6	9.7
4	Starling Marte	0.0503	0.0669	0.0708	12.4	3.2	9.2
5	Chris Carter	0.0714	0.0873	0.0889	11.0	1.9	9.1
6	Yan Gomes	0.0643	0.0840	0.0822	6.2	0.0	6.2
7	Adrián González	0.0843	0.0753	0.0677	9.8	3.8	6.0
8	Chris Davis	0.0717	0.0805	0.1239	36.1	30.4	5.7
9	Joey Votto	0.1051	0.0986	0.0706	24.1	19.1	5.0
10	Eric Young Jr.	0.0476	0.0562	0.0603	8.4	3.4	4.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Munenori Kawasaki	0.0631	0.0466	0.0284	9.0	4.7	4.3
2	Christian Yelich	0.0540	0.0655	0.0702	5.3	1.8	3.6
3	Chris Carter	0.0829	0.0873	0.0889	5.5	1.9	3.6
4	Marcell Ozuna	0.0497	0.0595	0.0787	9.4	6.1	3.3
5	Yoenis Cespedes	0.0698	0.0631	0.0569	5.5	2.6	2.9
6	Giancarlo Stanton	0.0896	0.0937	0.0992	6.5	3.7	2.9
7	David Ortiz	0.0884	0.0912	0.0938	5.3	2.6	2.6
8	Pablo Sandoval	0.0848	0.0790	0.0616	11.6	9.1	2.5
9	Justin Upton	0.0815	0.0760	0.0720	3.9	1.5	2.4
10	José Bautista	0.0664	0.0694	0.0698	3.6	1.1	2.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Lyle Overbay	0.0995	0.0885	0.0738	12.4	6.3	6.2
2	Joey Votto	0.1020	0.0986	0.0706	22.8	19.1	3.7
3	Brett Gardner	0.0464	0.0537	0.0797	20.3	16.9	3.5
4	J.P. Arencibia	0.0816	0.0768	0.0586	11.3	8.2	3.2
5	Chris Iannetta	0.0515	0.0610	0.0688	6.9	3.8	3.1
6	Carlos González	0.0749	0.0834	0.0920	7.5	4.5	3.0
7	Ben Zobrist	0.0831	0.0805	0.0698	9.3	6.3	3.0
8	Andrew McCutchen	0.0697	0.0756	0.0817	8.2	5.3	2.9
9	Todd Frazier	0.0805	0.0773	0.0740	3.8	1.0	2.9
10	Torii Hunter	0.0553	0.0611	0.0757	13.4	10.6	2.8

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Starlin Castro	0.0038	0.0197 (10.2)	0.0162 (7.8)	0.0172 (8.8)	0.0223 (11.5)
Shane Victorino	0.0050	0.0192 (6.7)	0.0204 (7.5)	0.0181 (6.5)	0.0203 (7.0)
Carlos Gómez	0.0268	0.0125 (9.4)	0.0129 (9.0)	0.0106 (10.2)	0.0144 (8.5)
José Reyes	0.0000	0.0197 (7.6)	0.0221 (8.7)	0.0196 (7.8)	0.0198 (7.4)
Marlon Byrd	0.0134	0.0042 (6.3)	0.0043 (6.1)	0.0048 (5.6)	0.0036 (6.9)
David Wright	0.0179	0.0047 (7.2)	0.0053 (6.9)	0.0044 (7.1)	0.0050 (7.4)
Stephen Drew	0.0259	0.0133 (7.1)	0.0147 (6.3)	0.0103 (8.3)	0.0162 (5.9)
Dexter Fowler	0.0099	0.0330 (10.6)	0.0326 (10.5)	0.0319 (10.4)	0.0341 (10.9)
Brad Miller	0.0240	0.0080 (5.9)	0.0061 (6.4)	0.0075 (5.9)	0.0086 (5.9)
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.0166	0.0065 (7.4)	0.0062 (7.5)	0.0044 (8.3)	0.0086 (6.4)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Dan Uggla	0.0010	0.0116	6.5
2	Denard Span	0.0124	0.0205	6.4
3	Brett Gardner	0.0168	0.0242	5.4
4	Munenori Kawasaki	0.0068	0.0237	5.3
5	Torii Hunter	0.0039	0.0102	5.1
6	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0110	0.0178	4.8
7	Carlos González	0.0146	0.0240	4.8
8	Alex Gordon	0.0075	0.0126	4.6
9	Brandon Moss	0.0031	0.0108	4.6
10	Josh Hamilton	0.0066	0.0123	4.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0051	0.0178	8.1
2	Pete Kozma	0.0176	0.0000	7.3
3	Anthony Gose	0.0061	0.0459	6.3
4	Denard Span	0.0124	0.0205	6.2
5	Corey Dickerson	0.0061	0.0331	6.0
6	Brett Gardner	0.0157	0.0242	6.0
7	Seth Smith	0.0158	0.0000	5.9
8	Mike Trout	0.0140	0.0207	5.8
9	Torii Hunter	0.0027	0.0102	5.8
10	Chris Johnson	0.0118	0.0000	5.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Denard Span	0.0072	0.0205	9.4
2	Brett Gardner	0.0125	0.0242	7.7
3	Munenori Kawasaki	0.0050	0.0237	5.7
4	Dan Uggla	0.0020	0.0116	5.7
5	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0092	0.0178	5.6
6	Carlos González	0.0122	0.0240	5.5
7	Josh Hamilton	0.0052	0.0123	5.1
8	Corey Dickerson	0.0114	0.0331	4.8
9	Jean Segura	0.0135	0.0202	4.7
10	Freddy Galvis	0.0057	0.0255	4.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Dan Uggla	0.0000	0.0116	7.4
2	Anthony Rendon	0.0217	0.0035	6.3
3	Torii Hunter	0.0026	0.0102	6.3
4	Carl Crawford	0.0219	0.0082	5.4
5	Alex Gordon	0.0070	0.0126	5.4
6	Nick Hundley	0.0149	0.0000	5.2
7	Munenori Kawasaki	0.0085	0.0237	5.0
8	Brandon Moss	0.0031	0.0108	4.9
9	Chris Johnson	0.0111	0.0000	4.9
10	Chris Denorfia	0.0165	0.0052	4.8

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Trout	0.0140	0.0213	0.0207	5.8	0.7	5.1
2	Pete Kozma	0.0176	0.0093	0.0000	7.3	3.5	3.8
3	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0051	0.0110	0.0178	8.1	4.8	3.3
4	Juan Lagares	0.0061	0.0140	0.0167	5.0	1.8	3.2
5	Matt Dominguez	0.0103	0.0050	0.0000	5.3	2.0	3.2
6	Aaron Hicks	0.0061	0.0175	0.0154	3.3	0.2	3.1
7	Brian Dozier	0.0036	0.0082	0.0093	4.4	1.7	2.7
8	Seth Smith	0.0158	0.0098	0.0000	5.9	3.4	2.5
9	Darin Ruf	0.0134	0.0053	0.0000	3.5	1.1	2.4
10	Jedd Gyorko	0.0061	0.0012	0.0000	2.5	0.1	2.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Denard Span	0.0072	0.0124	0.0205	9.4	6.4	3.0
2	Brett Gardner	0.0125	0.0168	0.0242	7.7	5.4	2.3
3	Starling Marte	0.0236	0.0294	0.0272	2.6	0.3	2.3
4	Mike Trout	0.0177	0.0213	0.0207	2.9	0.7	2.2
5	Juan Lagares	0.0093	0.0140	0.0167	3.5	1.8	1.7
6	Victor Martinez	0.0033	0.0016	0.0000	1.6	0.1	1.5
7	Martín Prado	0.0105	0.0090	0.0036	3.9	2.5	1.4
8	Will Venable	0.0161	0.0191	0.0233	4.2	2.9	1.3
9	Omar Infante	0.0126	0.0105	0.0075	2.0	0.7	1.2
10	Stephen Drew	0.0103	0.0133	0.0259	8.3	7.1	1.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Starling Marte	0.0352	0.0294	0.0272	3.3	0.3	3.0
2	Carl Crawford	0.0219	0.0160	0.0082	5.4	3.0	2.5
3	Anthony Rendon	0.0217	0.0165	0.0035	6.3	4.5	1.8
4	Lance Berkman	0.0000	0.0044	0.0051	2.1	0.6	1.5
5	Starlin Castro	0.0223	0.0197	0.0038	11.5	10.2	1.4
6	Victor Martinez	0.0000	0.0016	0.0000	1.4	0.1	1.3
7	Gerardo Parra	0.0164	0.0139	0.0080	4.2	2.9	1.3
8	Torii Hunter	0.0026	0.0039	0.0102	6.3	5.1	1.2
9	David Ortiz	0.0000	0.0013	0.0049	4.2	3.1	1.1
10	Coco Crisp	0.0167	0.0143	0.0069	4.5	3.4	1.1

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Starlin Castro	0.0837	0.1245 (26.1)	0.1158 (18.4)	0.1240 (26.0)	0.1250 (26.2)
Jimmy Rollins	0.0976	0.1345 (22.1)	0.1362 (21.7)	0.1290 (18.7)	0.1399 (25.4)
Jayson Werth	0.1579	0.1249 (19.5)	0.1256 (20.4)	0.1281 (17.6)	0.1218 (21.5)
Yasiel Puig	0.1528	0.1116 (19.4)	0.1116 (20.4)	0.1116 (19.2)	0.1116 (19.6)
Chris Davis	0.1530	0.1202 (24.6)	0.1201 (26.3)	0.1279 (19.2)	0.1125 (30.1)
B.J. Upton	0.0673	0.1327 (27.5)	0.1293 (25.0)	0.1282 (25.7)	0.1371 (29.3)
Matt Holliday	0.1711	0.1334 (25.0)	0.1412 (21.7)	0.1354 (23.5)	0.1314 (26.4)
Matt Carpenter	0.1757	0.1060 (52.7)	0.1203 (44.1)	0.1052 (53.0)	0.1069 (52.4)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Daniel Nava	0.1072	0.1437	21.5
2	Pablo Sandoval	0.1293	0.0890	21.3
3	Marlon Byrd	0.0977	0.1295	20.6
4	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0909	0.0519	20.4
5	Anthony Rizzo	0.1342	0.1029	19.0
6	Paul Konerko	0.1189	0.0788	18.9
7	Hanley Ramirez	0.1336	0.1845	18.4
8	AJ Pollock	0.1005	0.1328	17.4
9	Jose Altuve	0.1244	0.0952	17.1
10	Josh Willingham	0.1290	0.0892	17.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Starling Marte	0.1074	0.1466	25.6
2	Shin-Soo Choo	0.1217	0.1503	24.6
3	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0975	0.0519	22.8
4	Coco Crisp	0.1287	0.1592	21.4
5	Brandon Belt	0.1026	0.1331	20.9
6	Daniel Murphy	0.1087	0.1320	20.5
7	Hanley Ramirez	0.1298	0.1845	20.4
8	Adam Lind	0.0956	0.1286	20.4
9	Josh Hamilton	0.1517	0.1148	19.6
10	Trevor Plouffe	0.1277	0.0843	19.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Paul Konerko	0.1304	0.0788	25.1
2	Marlon Byrd	0.0906	0.1295	24.5
3	Pablo Sandoval	0.1343	0.0890	24.5
4	Prince Fielder	0.1519	0.1152	23.8
5	Billy Butler	0.1317	0.0928	23.7
6	Anthony Rizzo	0.1361	0.1029	20.6
7	AJ Pollock	0.0941	0.1328	20.3
8	Hanley Ramirez	0.1294	0.1845	19.7
9	Coco Crisp	0.1315	0.1592	18.2
10	Buster Posey	0.1362	0.1025	18.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Daniel Nava	0.1005	0.1437	25.4
2	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0994	0.0519	25.0
3	Daniel Murphy	0.1045	0.1320	22.1
4	Paul Goldschmidt	0.1194	0.1451	21.2
5	Yadier Molina	0.0936	0.1257	19.6
6	Darwin Barney	0.1269	0.0883	19.1
7	Alfonso Soriano	0.1088	0.1342	18.5
8	Shane Victorino	0.1240	0.1541	18.3
9	Dustin Ackley	0.1406	0.0937	18.2
10	Jose Altuve	0.1265	0.0952	18.2

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Starling Marte	0.1074	0.1288	0.1466	25.6	12.2	13.4
2	Josh Hamilton	0.1517	0.1298	0.1148	19.6	7.1	12.5
3	Kyle Seager	0.1009	0.1160	0.1137	13.1	1.0	12.1
4	Shin-Soo Choo	0.1217	0.1360	0.1503	24.6	12.8	11.8
5	Eric Young Jr.	0.1455	0.1237	0.1171	13.4	1.7	11.7
6	Brandon Belt	0.1026	0.1179	0.1331	20.9	10.8	10.1
7	Pedro Álvarez	0.1040	0.1182	0.1140	9.9	0.3	9.6
8	Adam Lind	0.0956	0.1093	0.1286	20.4	12.0	8.3
9	Nick Markakis	0.1126	0.1219	0.1271	14.4	6.3	8.1
10	Michael Young	0.1259	0.1099	0.0920	15.7	8.0	7.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Prince Fielder	0.1519	0.1347	0.1152	23.8	11.3	12.5
2	Zack Cozart	0.0975	0.1148	0.1197	15.8	5.4	10.4
3	Carlos Gómez	0.1093	0.1242	0.1356	17.5	9.0	8.5
4	Marco Scutaro	0.1269	0.1123	0.1042	10.6	2.4	8.2
5	Billy Butler	0.1317	0.1203	0.0928	23.7	15.9	7.9
6	Victor Martinez	0.1282	0.1179	0.1018	15.4	8.3	7.1
7	Michael Saunders	0.1065	0.1219	0.1261	10.7	3.7	7.0
8	Paul Konerko	0.1304	0.1189	0.0788	25.1	18.9	6.2
9	Brett Gardner	0.1256	0.1359	0.1330	6.5	0.5	6.0
10	Andrew McCutchen	0.1375	0.1467	0.1439	6.6	0.6	6.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Darwin Barney	0.1269	0.1105	0.0883	19.1	10.3	8.8
2	Grégor Blanco	0.1250	0.1088	0.0978	11.7	3.7	8.1
3	Dexter Fowler	0.1194	0.1351	0.1443	14.3	6.4	8.0
4	Nick Markakis	0.1118	0.1219	0.1271	13.7	6.3	7.4
5	Daniel Murphy	0.1045	0.1134	0.1320	22.1	15.5	6.6
6	Carlos Beltrán	0.1113	0.1218	0.1317	14.7	8.2	6.5
7	Will Middlebrooks	0.0900	0.1056	0.1096	8.9	2.9	6.0
8	Yadier Molina	0.0936	0.1039	0.1257	19.6	13.8	5.8
9	Mike Trout	0.1755	0.1671	0.1522	13.7	8.0	5.7
10	Adam Lind	0.0989	0.1093	0.1286	17.7	12.0	5.6

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jayson Werth	0.1541	0.1097 (27.0)	0.1023 (30.7)	0.1135 (25.2)	0.1058 (28.9)
Paul Goldschmidt	0.1761	0.1451 (26.5)	0.1327 (35.0)	0.1475 (25.0)	0.1426 (28.0)
Chris Davis	0.2051	0.1411 (47.3)	0.1220 (59.9)	0.1465 (43.9)	0.1357 (50.7)
Marlon Byrd	0.1520	0.0982 (34.8)	0.0881 (40.5)	0.1024 (32.6)	0.0941 (37.0)
Ryan Raburn	0.1986	0.1020 (28.5)	0.1086 (26.6)	0.1071 (27.2)	0.0970 (29.8)
B.J. Upton	0.0583	0.1218 (25.5)	0.1172 (23.6)	0.1203 (24.7)	0.1233 (26.3)
Wilson Ramos	0.1947	0.1129 (26.7)	0.1111 (27.1)	0.1165 (25.7)	0.1093 (27.7)
Miguel Cabrera	0.2101	0.1720 (29.0)	0.1724 (28.5)	0.1749 (27.3)	0.1692 (30.6)
Brandon Phillips	0.1547	0.1134 (31.7)	0.1115 (32.7)	0.1058 (37.0)	0.1209 (26.5)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Starlin Castro	0.1098	0.0624	28.9
2	Anthony Rizzo	0.1623	0.1159	27.6
3	Joey Votto	0.1449	0.1006	27.6
4	Jimmy Rollins	0.1003	0.0586	23.6
5	Brandon Moss	0.1327	0.1723	23.2
6	Michael Brantley	0.0886	0.1195	22.8
7	Giancarlo Stanton	0.1737	0.1230	22.3
8	Domonic Brown	0.1195	0.1537	21.9
9	Starling Marte	0.1068	0.0618	21.9
10	Shin-Soo Choo	0.1118	0.0758	21.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adam Jones	0.1189	0.1567	30.2
2	Freddie Freeman	0.1320	0.1733	29.7
3	Josh Hamilton	0.1746	0.1242	28.3
4	Evan Gattis	0.1061	0.1702	26.7
5	Domonic Brown	0.1141	0.1537	24.6
6	Pedro Álvarez	0.1304	0.1629	23.6
7	Nate Schierholtz	0.0943	0.1352	23.5
8	Jimmy Rollins	0.0997	0.0586	23.4
9	Josh Willingham	0.1568	0.1019	23.0
10	Carl Crawford	0.1210	0.0661	23.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Starlin Castro	0.1064	0.0624	26.2
2	Joey Votto	0.1396	0.1006	23.5
3	Michael Brantley	0.0882	0.1195	23.2
4	Freddie Freeman	0.1435	0.1733	23.0
5	Brandon Moss	0.1338	0.1723	22.8
6	Giancarlo Stanton	0.1751	0.1230	22.8
7	Domonic Brown	0.1182	0.1537	22.8
8	Anthony Rizzo	0.1549	0.1159	22.2
9	Pedro Álvarez	0.1351	0.1629	21.2
10	Mike Moustakas	0.1295	0.0817	21.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Anthony Rizzo	0.1698	0.1159	33.0
2	Shin-Soo Choo	0.1279	0.0758	32.8
3	Joey Votto	0.1503	0.1006	31.7
4	Starlin Castro	0.1132	0.0624	31.6
5	Jimmy Rollins	0.1092	0.0586	29.7
6	Starling Marte	0.1176	0.0618	28.2
7	Adam Jones	0.1258	0.1567	25.5
8	Chase Headley	0.1294	0.0833	24.1
9	Miguel Montero	0.1443	0.0884	23.7
10	Brandon Moss	0.1316	0.1723	23.6

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Josh Hamilton	0.1746	0.1505	0.1242	28.3	12.7	15.6
2	Zack Cozart	0.0730	0.0971	0.1019	21.6	6.9	14.7
3	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.1083	0.0861	0.0727	17.2	4.1	13.1
4	Chris Davis	0.1220	0.1411	0.2051	59.9	47.3	12.6
5	Jay Bruce	0.1400	0.1581	0.1564	15.6	3.2	12.4
6	Chris Carter	0.1180	0.1394	0.1402	16.5	4.2	12.3
7	Adam Jones	0.1189	0.1351	0.1567	30.2	19.3	10.9
8	Evan Gattis	0.1061	0.1330	0.1702	26.7	16.6	10.1
9	Pete Kozma	0.1205	0.0986	0.0781	16.3	6.3	10.0
10	Marco Scutaro	0.1035	0.0863	0.0567	22.4	12.7	9.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Alfonso Soriano	0.1383	0.1545	0.1613	18.6	8.2	10.4
2	Justin Upton	0.1476	0.1313	0.1089	20.6	10.3	10.2
3	Daniel Murphy	0.0938	0.1076	0.1119	17.3	7.4	9.9
4	Eric Young Jr.	0.0922	0.0766	0.0535	19.1	10.0	9.1
5	Torii Hunter	0.1220	0.1361	0.1288	8.9	0.6	8.3
6	Juan Uribe	0.1041	0.1206	0.1174	8.5	1.3	7.2
7	Jonathan Lucroy	0.1150	0.1260	0.1414	19.2	12.6	6.6
8	Allen Craig	0.1476	0.1577	0.1723	17.7	11.8	5.9
9	Brandon Phillips	0.1058	0.1134	0.1547	37.0	31.7	5.3
10	Pedro Álvarez	0.1351	0.1429	0.1629	21.2	16.1	5.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Shin-Soo Choo	0.1279	0.1118	0.0758	32.8	21.1	11.7
2	Neil Walker	0.1394	0.1211	0.0962	20.5	10.2	10.3
3	Torii Hunter	0.1503	0.1361	0.1288	10.1	0.6	9.4
4	Zack Cozart	0.0829	0.0971	0.1019	15.5	6.9	8.6
5	Wilin Rosario	0.1299	0.1475	0.1695	21.3	13.2	8.1
6	Emilio Bonifácio	0.0520	0.0684	0.0672	9.8	2.4	7.4
7	Yuniesky Betancourt	0.1406	0.1232	0.1125	9.0	1.8	7.3
8	Josh Reddick	0.1026	0.1190	0.1270	13.4	6.3	7.1
9	Grégor Blanco	0.0625	0.0756	0.0802	12.1	5.6	6.5
10	Ryan Howard	0.1878	0.1676	0.1356	14.6	8.1	6.5

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Nate McLouth	0.2041	0.0992 (65.5)	0.0957 (71.8)	0.0957 (62.5)	0.1028 (68.6)
Elliot Johnson	0.3860	0.1638 (62.6)	0.1591 (65.9)	0.1388 (67.1)	0.1875 (58.5)
Starling Marte	0.2847	0.1613 (73.0)	0.1594 (78.2)	0.1341 (83.5)	0.1905 (61.5)
Leonys Martin	0.3000	0.1355 (86.4)	0.1176 (99.1)	0.1103 (94.8)	0.1613 (77.8)
Hunter Pence	0.1325	0.0419 (66.1)	0.0596 (58.9)	0.0284 (69.5)	0.0559 (62.5)
Alex Rios	0.2642	0.1251 (95.7)	0.1473 (85.8)	0.1014 (105.7)	0.1493 (85.6)
Daniel Murphy	0.1377	0.0461 (67.8)	0.0567 (65.4)	0.0404 (65.7)	0.0517 (70.0)
Alfonso Soriano	0.1475	0.0340 (74.6)	0.0446 (72.4)	0.0301 (71.6)	0.0381 (77.5)
Rajai Davis	0.5114	0.3216 (70.3)	0.3455 (64.3)	0.2857 (80.2)	0.3585 (60.2)
Alexei Ramirez	0.1840	0.0776 (75.5)	0.0882 (73.2)	0.0690 (75.5)	0.0861 (75.7)
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.2955	0.1779 (78.3)	0.1759 (84.2)	0.1481 (91.8)	0.2091 (64.1)
Jarrod Dyson	0.5484	0.2916 (62.7)	0.2784 (67.6)	0.2550 (69.4)	0.3302 (55.6)
Jean Segura	0.2716	0.1633 (71.0)	0.1067 (110.7)	0.1347 (83.4)	0.1912 (59.1)
Elvis Andrus	0.2111	0.1210 (66.7)	0.1381 (59.8)	0.0971 (77.4)	0.1450 (56.1)
Coco Crisp	0.1419	0.2616 (66.6)	0.2951 (82.0)	0.2382 (58.0)	0.2857 (75.6)
DJ LeMahieu	0.1682	0.0628 (48.2)	0.0357 (63.1)	0.0503 (49.9)	0.0750 (46.7)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Young Jr.	0.2325	0.3151	52.7
2	Mike Trout	0.2164	0.1410	50.0
3	Brett Gardner	0.2332	0.1538	44.9
4	Clete Thomas	0.1452	0.0135	40.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jonathan Villar	0.0603	0.2857	57.4
2	Eric Young Jr.	0.2418	0.3151	51.5
3	Brett Gardner	0.2405	0.1538	45.0
4	Michael Bourn	0.2442	0.1565	43.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Young Jr.	0.1833	0.3151	77.0
2	Jose Altuve	0.1242	0.2023	50.5
3	Carlos González	0.0933	0.2000	45.2
4	Juan Pierre	0.1640	0.2949	42.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Trout	0.2582	0.1410	73.6
2	Brett Gardner	0.2772	0.1538	66.4
3	Starlin Castro	0.1420	0.0584	48.8
4	Grégor Blanco	0.2000	0.0952	46.2

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jonathan Villar	0.0603	0.2256	0.2857	57.4	15.8	41.6
2	Jean Segura	0.1067	0.1633	0.2716	110.7	71.0	39.8
3	Norichika Aoki	0.1587	0.0950	0.0971	32.9	5.2	27.7
4	AJ Pollock	0.0667	0.1181	0.1062	25.2	3.0	22.2
5	Aaron Hicks	0.0603	0.1168	0.1552	33.7	13.8	19.9
6	Matt Dominguez	0.0476	0.0091	0.0000	20.5	2.1	18.4
7	Christian Yelich	0.0603	0.1310	0.1190	19.5	1.8	17.8
8	Leury García	0.0603	0.2069	0.2800	25.8	8.7	17.1
9	Conor Gillaspie	0.0577	0.0149	0.0000	20.3	4.2	16.1
10	Coco Crisp	0.2951	0.2616	0.1419	82.0	66.6	15.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Eric Young Jr.	0.1833	0.2325	0.3151	77.0	52.7	24.3
2	Carlos Gómez	0.2338	0.2756	0.2899	31.3	11.7	19.5
3	Jose Altuve	0.1242	0.1581	0.2023	50.5	33.4	17.0
4	Jacoby Ellsbury	0.1481	0.1779	0.2955	91.8	78.3	13.5
5	Lyle Overbay	0.0520	0.0332	0.0192	17.4	4.1	13.3
6	Jean Segura	0.1347	0.1633	0.2716	83.4	71.0	12.4
7	Ian Desmond	0.1075	0.1337	0.1355	16.3	4.8	11.5
8	Elvis Andrus	0.0971	0.1210	0.2111	77.4	66.7	10.7
9	Starling Marte	0.1341	0.1613	0.2847	83.5	73.0	10.5
10	Matt Dominguez	0.0182	0.0091	0.0000	12.5	2.1	10.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Trout	0.2582	0.2164	0.1410	73.6	50.0	23.7
2	Brett Gardner	0.2772	0.2332	0.1538	66.4	44.9	21.5
3	Carl Crawford	0.2188	0.1797	0.1304	34.7	20.5	14.2
4	Starlin Castro	0.1420	0.1138	0.0584	48.8	35.1	13.7
5	Drew Stubbs	0.2391	0.2029	0.1504	35.7	22.6	13.2
6	Michael Bourn	0.2473	0.2165	0.1565	44.0	31.3	12.6
7	B.J. Upton	0.2345	0.2004	0.1250	42.4	31.1	11.3
8	Junior Lake	0.2261	0.1739	0.0645	37.4	26.4	11.0
9	Domonic Brown	0.1017	0.0728	0.0650	12.0	1.2	10.9
10	Derrick Robinson	0.2519	0.1930	0.0690	36.4	25.6	10.8

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Starlin Castro	0.2447	0.2926 (32.2)	0.2896 (28.0)	0.2917 (30.5)	0.2936 (33.9)
Freddie Freeman	0.3194	0.2738 (30.1)	0.2653 (37.3)	0.2734 (31.3)	0.2742 (28.9)
Jayson Werth	0.3182	0.2568 (33.8)	0.2681 (29.4)	0.2601 (32.8)	0.2535 (34.8)
Darwin Barney	0.2076	0.2694 (33.1)	0.2617 (27.2)	0.2689 (32.0)	0.2698 (34.1)
Yasiel Puig	0.3194	0.2571 (27.8)	0.2571 (29.1)	0.2571 (28.5)	0.2571 (27.2)
Daniel Nava	0.3035	0.2472 (31.4)	0.2460 (33.6)	0.2540 (28.5)	0.2404 (34.2)
Dan Uggla	0.1786	0.2376 (30.5)	0.2445 (32.6)	0.2369 (29.3)	0.2382 (31.6)
Josh Donaldson	0.3005	0.2418 (40.7)	0.2437 (41.4)	0.2501 (36.1)	0.2336 (45.2)
Chris Johnson	0.3210	0.2580 (35.7)	0.2725 (29.3)	0.2620 (34.3)	0.2540 (37.1)
Hanley Ramirez	0.3454	0.2680 (26.7)	0.2633 (29.3)	0.2693 (26.8)	0.2668 (26.7)
David Murphy	0.2202	0.2787 (26.8)	0.2848 (28.3)	0.2823 (27.8)	0.2751 (25.8)
Jed Lowrie	0.2902	0.2457 (30.9)	0.2526 (28.3)	0.2456 (32.0)	0.2457 (30.0)
Michael Cuddyer	0.3313	0.2798 (29.0)	0.2691 (36.3)	0.2757 (32.0)	0.2839 (26.0)
Matt Carpenter	0.3179	0.2634 (40.6)	0.2736 (35.5)	0.2697 (37.2)	0.2570 (44.2)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Anthony Rizzo	0.2772	0.2327	29.2
2	B.J. Upton	0.2481	0.1841	27.5
3	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2674	0.3023	26.3
4	Mike Trout	0.2896	0.3226	25.2
5	Manny Machado	0.2515	0.2834	24.2
6	James Loney	0.2626	0.2987	22.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Hosmer	0.2582	0.3018	33.1
2	Jose Iglesias	0.2262	0.3029	31.2
3	Josh Hamilton	0.2992	0.2500	28.0
4	Jean Segura	0.2576	0.2942	26.0
5	Justin Ruggiano	0.2814	0.2217	25.8
6	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2723	0.3023	25.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Anthony Rizzo	0.2756	0.2327	27.1
2	Manny Machado	0.2508	0.2834	25.7
3	B.J. Upton	0.2453	0.1841	25.6
4	Torii Hunter	0.2701	0.3036	24.3
5	Marlon Byrd	0.2534	0.2914	24.1
6	Carlos Gómez	0.2470	0.2836	23.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Anthony Rizzo	0.2787	0.2327	31.3
2	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2593	0.3023	31.1
3	Mike Trout	0.2817	0.3226	29.8
4	B.J. Upton	0.2509	0.1841	29.4
5	James Loney	0.2588	0.2987	24.3
6	JB Shuck	0.2442	0.2929	23.7

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Pete Kozma	0.2727	0.2286	0.2171	22.6	4.2	18.4
2	Eric Sogard	0.2231	0.2577	0.2663	19.8	4.4	15.4
3	Josh Hamilton	0.2992	0.2727	0.2500	28.0	13.1	15.0
4	Domonic Brown	0.2441	0.2652	0.2722	18.0	5.0	13.0
5	Eric Hosmer	0.2582	0.2739	0.3018	33.1	20.4	12.7
6	Jose Iglesias	0.2262	0.2528	0.3029	31.2	19.9	11.3
7	Jean Segura	0.2576	0.2727	0.2942	26.0	14.8	11.3
8	AJ Pollock	0.2511	0.2704	0.2686	10.9	0.2	10.7
9	Starling Marte	0.2556	0.2705	0.2804	17.0	6.8	10.1
10	Justin Ruggiano	0.2814	0.2587	0.2217	25.8	16.4	9.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Justin Upton	0.2874	0.2754	0.2634	13.0	6.3	6.7
2	Torii Hunter	0.2701	0.2785	0.3036	24.3	17.8	6.5
3	David Ortiz	0.2783	0.2864	0.3089	20.5	14.8	5.8
4	Chris Carter	0.2561	0.2465	0.2233	17.0	12.3	4.7
5	Jean Segura	0.2670	0.2727	0.2942	19.3	14.8	4.5
6	Marcell Ozuna	0.2123	0.2263	0.2655	16.5	12.0	4.5
7	Robinson Canó	0.2931	0.2971	0.3140	16.8	13.0	3.8
8	Edwin Encarnación	0.2646	0.2690	0.2717	6.7	3.0	3.6
9	Jedd Gyorko	0.2697	0.2613	0.2490	9.0	5.3	3.6
10	Bryce Harper	0.2632	0.2684	0.2736	7.0	3.6	3.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	JB Shuck	0.2442	0.2590	0.2929	23.7	17.2	6.4
2	Brandon Barnes	0.2109	0.2265	0.2402	13.4	7.1	6.3
3	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2593	0.2674	0.3023	31.1	26.3	4.8
4	Mike Trout	0.2817	0.2896	0.3226	29.8	25.2	4.6
5	Josh Donaldson	0.2336	0.2418	0.3005	45.2	40.7	4.5
6	Jimmy Rollins	0.2599	0.2549	0.2517	5.0	0.7	4.3
7	Evan Longoria	0.2635	0.2706	0.2687	4.2	0.2	3.9
8	Brandon Crawford	0.2302	0.2387	0.2485	10.5	6.6	3.9
9	Didi Gregorius	0.2710	0.2628	0.2521	7.3	3.5	3.9
10	Kurt Suzuki	0.2634	0.2532	0.2316	9.8	6.2	3.7

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Starlin Castro	0.2841	0.3346 (33.8)	0.3323 (29.5)	0.3368 (33.2)	0.3324 (34.3)
Freddie Freeman	0.3959	0.3501 (30.4)	0.3373 (40.9)	0.3500 (32.4)	0.3503 (28.4)
Matt Carpenter	0.3922	0.3501 (32.0)	0.3458 (37.8)	0.3540 (31.4)	0.3462 (32.7)
Paul Goldschmidt	0.4006	0.3484 (38.8)	0.3449 (44.1)	0.3589 (33.6)	0.3380 (44.2)
Yasiel Puig	0.3912	0.3218 (31.1)	0.3218 (32.8)	0.3218 (32.4)	0.3218 (29.8)
Josh Donaldson	0.3838	0.3049 (54.4)	0.2989 (61.0)	0.3145 (50.1)	0.2953 (58.9)
Chris Davis	0.3700	0.3149 (38.8)	0.3176 (39.6)	0.3244 (34.5)	0.3054 (43.2)
Jason Kipnis	0.3660	0.3290 (26.0)	0.3327 (26.1)	0.3329 (25.5)	0.3251 (26.7)
David Murphy	0.2821	0.3477 (30.0)	0.3508 (29.6)	0.3545 (31.8)	0.3410 (28.2)
Miguel Cabrera	0.4417	0.3998 (29.0)	0.4055 (27.8)	0.4052 (27.5)	0.3943 (30.7)
Shin-Soo Choo	0.4231	0.3648 (43.4)	0.3670 (44.6)	0.3608 (48.4)	0.3687 (38.5)
Michael Cuddyer	0.3889	0.3391 (28.2)	0.3311 (34.7)	0.3384 (30.3)	0.3399 (26.3)
Alcides Escobar	0.2591	0.3133 (33.1)	0.3093 (28.1)	0.3149 (32.2)	0.3116 (33.9)
Mike Trout	0.4316	0.3671 (48.0)	0.3664 (51.2)	0.3735 (45.6)	0.3608 (50.4)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Johnson	0.3031	0.3583	31.6
2	Daniel Nava	0.3361	0.3853	27.8
3	Jayson Werth	0.3504	0.3985	26.9
4	Yoenis Cespedes	0.3428	0.2944	26.3
5	J.P. Arencibia	0.2827	0.2274	26.3
6	Prince Fielder	0.4012	0.3624	25.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adam Lind	0.3030	0.3570	31.5
2	Josh Hamilton	0.3587	0.3066	29.0
3	Daniel Nava	0.3380	0.3853	28.8
4	Eric Hosmer	0.3182	0.3535	28.4
5	Paul Konerko	0.3741	0.3135	28.2
6	J.P. Arencibia	0.2870	0.2274	26.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Johnson	0.3105	0.3583	29.2
2	Yoenis Cespedes	0.3481	0.2944	27.5
3	Adrian Beltré	0.3384	0.3710	26.4
4	Prince Fielder	0.4051	0.3624	26.4
5	Jayson Werth	0.3555	0.3985	25.9
6	Carlos Gómez	0.2999	0.3379	25.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Johnson	0.2957	0.3583	34.0
2	Daniel Nava	0.3285	0.3853	30.2
3	Jayson Werth	0.3453	0.3985	28.1
4	J.P. Arencibia	0.2823	0.2274	27.5
5	Prince Fielder	0.3973	0.3624	25.2
6	Yoenis Cespedes	0.3376	0.2944	25.0

Most Unique Misses for On-Base Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Pete Kozma	0.3374	0.2848	0.2752	25.0	3.2	21.8
2	Eric Sogard	0.2814	0.3218	0.3218	19.2	1.0	18.2
3	Eric Hosmer	0.3182	0.3396	0.3535	28.4	11.2	17.2
4	Brandon Belt	0.3397	0.3615	0.3596	15.0	0.4	14.6
5	Josh Hamilton	0.3587	0.3361	0.3066	29.0	17.2	11.9
6	Freddie Freeman	0.3373	0.3501	0.3959	40.9	30.4	10.5
7	Adam Lind	0.3030	0.3184	0.3570	31.5	21.5	10.0
8	Giancarlo Stanton	0.3479	0.3624	0.3651	11.9	2.6	9.3
9	Juan Lagares	0.3218	0.2969	0.2812	14.4	5.5	8.9
10	Luis Valbuena	0.3006	0.3184	0.3308	14.3	5.8	8.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	David Ortiz	0.3739	0.3807	0.3950	16.0	10.1	5.9
2	Marcell Ozuna	0.2575	0.2744	0.3034	15.0	9.2	5.8
3	Anthony Rendon	0.3045	0.3157	0.3291	11.9	6.3	5.6
4	Jean Segura	0.3136	0.3191	0.3285	12.8	7.5	5.3
5	Shin-Soo Choo	0.3608	0.3648	0.4231	48.4	43.4	5.0
6	Justin Upton	0.3687	0.3583	0.3536	6.1	1.4	4.7
7	Christian Yelich	0.2900	0.3037	0.3700	23.4	18.8	4.6
8	Bryce Harper	0.3352	0.3408	0.3684	19.3	15.0	4.3
9	Jimmy Rollins	0.3165	0.3198	0.3183	4.9	0.7	4.3
10	Giancarlo Stanton	0.3575	0.3624	0.3651	6.7	2.6	4.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	JB Shuck	0.3108	0.3258	0.3305	9.2	3.5	5.8
2	Paul Goldschmidt	0.3380	0.3484	0.4006	44.2	38.8	5.4
3	Brandon Barnes	0.2640	0.2788	0.2893	11.1	5.8	5.3
4	Marco Scutaro	0.3165	0.3284	0.3569	21.9	17.0	4.9
5	Torii Hunter	0.3441	0.3395	0.3344	6.6	1.7	4.9
6	Kevin Pillar	0.3218	0.2804	0.2500	7.9	3.1	4.9
7	Victor Martinez	0.3386	0.3482	0.3548	10.6	6.1	4.5
8	Chris Davis	0.3054	0.3149	0.3700	43.2	38.8	4.4
9	Josh Donaldson	0.2953	0.3049	0.3838	58.9	54.4	4.4
10	Hunter Pence	0.3173	0.3265	0.3392	14.8	10.5	4.3

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jayson Werth	0.5325	0.4271 (60.6)	0.4370 (58.3)	0.4326 (59.6)	0.4217 (61.8)
Carlos Gómez	0.5056	0.4111 (60.8)	0.4165 (60.9)	0.4041 (67.1)	0.4182 (54.7)
Yasiel Puig	0.5340	0.4037 (60.0)	0.4037 (62.4)	0.4037 (61.5)	0.4037 (58.6)
Josh Donaldson	0.4991	0.4020 (70.6)	0.3969 (77.8)	0.4210 (60.3)	0.3832 (81.0)
Marlon Byrd	0.5113	0.3764 (83.1)	0.3870 (80.2)	0.3808 (82.6)	0.3721 (83.7)
Chris Davis	0.6336	0.4693 (116.3)	0.4483 (134.2)	0.4884 (105.8)	0.4505 (126.8)
B.J. Upton	0.2890	0.4415 (64.2)	0.4322 (57.5)	0.4280 (56.6)	0.4550 (71.7)
Hanley Ramirez	0.6382	0.4438 (68.2)	0.4263 (75.9)	0.4399 (70.7)	0.4478 (65.8)
Paul Konerko	0.3555	0.4812 (60.9)	0.5104 (73.2)	0.4775 (57.2)	0.4848 (64.5)
Jason Castro	0.4851	0.3609 (65.2)	0.3770 (60.0)	0.3778 (58.6)	0.3441 (71.8)
Miguel Cabrera	0.6360	0.5680 (50.0)	0.5789 (46.5)	0.5753 (47.5)	0.5608 (52.5)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Carpenter	0.3961	0.4808	66.9
2	Starlin Castro	0.4402	0.3468	59.7
3	Paul Goldschmidt	0.4827	0.5515	55.0
4	Anthony Rizzo	0.5072	0.4191	54.8
5	Nick Markakis	0.4383	0.3565	51.3
6	Giancarlo Stanton	0.5896	0.4800	50.9
7	Brandon Moss	0.4364	0.5224	47.8
8	Will Venable	0.4021	0.4844	46.8
9	Ike Davis	0.4638	0.3344	45.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Paul Goldschmidt	0.4641	0.5515	72.1
2	Pete Kozma	0.4364	0.2732	66.8
3	Josh Hamilton	0.5492	0.4323	65.3
4	Domonic Brown	0.3932	0.4940	62.0
5	Michael Cuddyer	0.4469	0.5297	52.3
6	Mike Trout	0.5051	0.5569	47.2
7	Josh Willingham	0.4810	0.3676	46.7
8	Freddie Freeman	0.4408	0.5009	46.7
9	Brandon Belt	0.4140	0.4813	46.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Carpenter	0.4042	0.4808	63.6
2	Nick Markakis	0.4492	0.3565	56.4
3	Anthony Rizzo	0.5109	0.4191	55.0
4	Starlin Castro	0.4344	0.3468	53.1
5	Will Venable	0.3974	0.4844	51.1
6	Ike Davis	0.4750	0.3344	48.4
7	Albert Pujols	0.5585	0.4373	48.3
8	Mike Trout	0.5032	0.5569	47.2
9	Brian Dozier	0.3505	0.4140	47.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Carpenter	0.3879	0.4808	70.5
2	Starlin Castro	0.4458	0.3468	66.0
3	Paul Goldschmidt	0.4674	0.5515	63.5
4	Giancarlo Stanton	0.6060	0.4800	60.8
5	Anthony Rizzo	0.5035	0.4191	54.5
6	Hunter Pence	0.4095	0.4833	54.3
7	Brandon Moss	0.4259	0.5224	51.4
8	Jason Kubel	0.4848	0.3166	47.2
9	Nick Markakis	0.4275	0.3565	46.0

Most Unique Misses for Slugging Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Pete Kozma	0.4364	0.3337	0.2732	66.8	23.3	43.5
2	Josh Hamilton	0.5492	0.4900	0.4323	65.3	31.3	34.1
3	Domonic Brown	0.3932	0.4465	0.4940	62.0	30.3	31.8
4	Eric Hosmer	0.4046	0.4396	0.4478	39.0	11.4	27.6
5	Freddie Freeman	0.4408	0.4746	0.5009	46.7	22.0	24.7
6	Michael Cuddyer	0.4469	0.4856	0.5297	52.3	28.4	23.9
7	Pedro Álvarez	0.4198	0.4489	0.4731	41.4	20.2	21.3
8	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.3920	0.3510	0.2983	45.9	25.5	20.5
9	Evan Gattis	0.4037	0.4517	0.4802	34.6	14.2	20.4
10	Justin Ruggiano	0.4671	0.4192	0.3962	26.7	6.8	20.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Justin Upton	0.5063	0.4742	0.4642	19.3	0.9	18.4
2	David Ortiz	0.5070	0.5327	0.5637	41.3	23.7	17.6
3	Shin-Soo Choo	0.4346	0.4484	0.4622	28.3	15.9	12.4
4	Robinson Canó	0.4952	0.5087	0.5157	22.3	10.6	11.6
5	Jean Segura	0.3745	0.3885	0.4235	38.1	27.1	10.9
6	Alfonso Soriano	0.4452	0.4575	0.4888	34.9	25.0	9.9
7	Marcell Ozuna	0.3464	0.3768	0.3891	16.0	6.1	9.9
8	Evan Longoria	0.5258	0.5058	0.4984	10.6	0.8	9.8
9	Domonic Brown	0.4322	0.4465	0.4940	39.9	30.3	9.6
10	Christian Yelich	0.3416	0.3732	0.3958	18.1	8.5	9.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ed Lucas	0.4037	0.3595	0.3362	23.9	5.7	18.2
2	Justin Upton	0.4419	0.4742	0.4642	17.7	0.9	16.8
3	JB Shuck	0.2951	0.3241	0.3661	36.5	24.2	12.3
4	Evan Longoria	0.4860	0.5058	0.4984	12.3	0.8	11.5
5	Mark DeRosa	0.2571	0.3086	0.4069	36.6	25.2	11.4
6	Chris Davis	0.4505	0.4693	0.6336	126.8	116.3	10.5
7	Josh Donaldson	0.3832	0.4020	0.4991	81.0	70.6	10.4
8	Giancarlo Stanton	0.6060	0.5896	0.4800	60.8	50.9	9.9
9	Hunter Pence	0.4095	0.4268	0.4833	54.3	44.7	9.6
10	Joey Votto	0.5422	0.5326	0.4905	33.6	24.3	9.4

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Chris Volstad	47	660 (613.5)	586 (539.0)	552 (505.0)	769 (722.0)
Ricky Romero	40	799 (759.5)	746 (706.0)	760 (720.0)	839 (798.9)
Chad Billingsley	49	654 (605.5)	660 (611.0)	580 (531.0)	729 (680.0)
Matt Harrison	51	836 (785.0)	753 (702.0)	844 (793.0)	828 (776.9)
Gavin Floyd	110	711 (601.0)	689 (579.0)	666 (556.0)	756 (646.1)
José Fernández	681	214 (467.0)	100 (581.0)	214 (467.0)	100 (581.0)
Johnny Cueto	242	826 (583.5)	769 (527.0)	829 (587.0)	822 (580.1)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brett Myers	730	97	633.0
2	James McDonald	678	138	539.5
3	Clayton Richard	764	239	524.5
4	Jair Jurrjens	544	31	512.5
5	Wandy Rodriguez	769	260	509.0
6	Cole De Vries	565	76	489.0
7	Blake Beavan	657	174	483.0
8	Mike Fiers	579	103	476.0
9	Roy Halladay	756	282	474.5
10	Josh Beckett	636	195	441.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hyun Jin Ryu	100	783	683.0
2	Shelby Miller	165	722	557.0
3	Julio Teheran	221	774	553.0
4	James McDonald	688	138	550.0
5	Derek Lowe	601	57	544.0
6	Clayton Richard	754	239	515.0
7	Josh Tomlin	521	9	512.0
8	Wily Peralta	295	802	507.0
9	Wandy Rodriguez	758	260	498.0
10	Josh Beckett	684	195	489.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brett Myers	690	97	593.0
2	Clayton Richard	815	239	576.0
3	Hyun Jin Ryu	213	783	570.0
4	James McDonald	693	138	555.0
5	Wandy Rodriguez	770	260	510.0
6	Jeff Locke	215	711	496.0
7	Eric Stults	365	857	492.0
8	Jair Jurrjens	522	31	491.0
9	Roy Halladay	768	282	486.0
10	Julio Teheran	298	774	476.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brett Myers	770	97	673.0
2	David Holmberg	666	20	646.0
3	Blake Beavan	806	174	631.9
4	Barry Enright	671	43	628.1
5	Zeke Spruill	674	55	619.1
6	John Gast	661	52	609.1
7	Will Smith	739	131	608.1
8	Thad Weber	654	61	593.0
9	Chris Dwyer	599	11	588.0
10	Brad Hand	669	82	587.1

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hyun Jin Ryu	100	492	783	683.0	290.6	392.4
2	Shelby Miller	165	506	722	557.0	215.9	341.1
3	Jonathan Pettibone	100	437	437	337.0	0.1	336.9
4	Zack Wheeler	100	425	431	331.0	6.4	324.6
5	Gerrit Cole	100	405	469	369.0	64.1	304.9
6	Matt Harvey	389	676	690	301.0	13.5	287.5
7	Tom Koehler	155	439	601	446.0	162.0	284.0
8	Dan Straily	350	632	640	290.0	8.5	281.5
9	John Lackey	330	604	778	448.0	174.5	273.5
10	Wily Peralta	295	564	802	507.0	237.5	269.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hyun Jin Ryu	213	492	783	570.0	290.6	279.4
2	Corey Kluber	216	471	608	392.0	137.4	254.6
3	Dallas Keuchel	220	472	682	462.0	210.5	251.5
4	Jeff Locke	215	446	711	496.0	264.5	231.5
5	Tom Koehler	220	439	601	381.0	162.0	219.0
6	Jonathan Pettibone	220	437	437	217.0	0.1	216.9
7	Carlos Torres	132	338	352	220.0	13.9	206.1
8	Zack Wheeler	221	425	431	210.0	6.4	203.6
9	Garrett Richards	219	421	620	401.0	198.6	202.4
10	Jeremy Hefner	252	450	556	304.0	106.0	198.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brett Cecil	703	420	250	452.9	169.9	283.0
2	Rob Scahill	685	408	149	536.1	259.1	277.0
3	Barry Enright	671	402	43	628.1	358.6	269.5
4	Thad Weber	654	390	61	593.0	329.0	264.0
5	Will Smith	739	485	131	608.1	353.6	254.5
6	Jeanmar Gómez	707	463	333	374.1	130.1	244.0
7	Jeremy Bonderman	705	461	246	459.0	215.0	244.0
8	Guillermo Moscoso	614	371	128	485.9	243.4	242.5
9	Jeurys Familia	602	366	52	550.1	314.1	236.0
10	Pedro Villarreal	593	360	32	560.9	328.4	232.5

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Barry Zito	0.3799	0.3026 (35.6)	0.3270 (32.4)	0.3098 (29.9)	0.2953 (41.4)
Dylan Axelrod	0.3855	0.3111 (32.6)	0.3325 (31.3)	0.3027 (36.3)	0.3196 (29.0)
Travis Wood	0.2844	0.3045 (31.9)	0.3194 (28.4)	0.3042 (33.3)	0.3049 (30.3)
CC Sabathia	0.3334	0.2755 (35.4)	0.2961 (34.2)	0.2757 (33.5)	0.2754 (37.6)
Joe Saunders	0.3760	0.3048 (42.9)	0.3290 (38.8)	0.3095 (37.4)	0.3002 (48.7)
Lucas Harrell	0.3657	0.3061 (28.9)	0.3095 (40.0)	0.3058 (27.6)	0.3064 (30.3)
José Fernández	0.2383	0.2807 (41.7)	0.3135 (50.9)	0.2807 (43.1)	0.3135 (62.4)
Max Scherzer	0.2581	0.2811 (35.0)	0.3235 (54.4)	0.2751 (31.6)	0.2871 (38.1)
Joe Blanton	0.3891	0.2915 (48.1)	0.3282 (37.4)	0.2854 (50.6)	0.2977 (45.8)
Matt Harvey	0.2354	0.2869 (48.5)	0.3017 (45.4)	0.2864 (49.6)	0.2874 (47.3)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Clayton Kershaw	0.2530	0.2320	36.1
2	Ervin Santana	0.3124	0.2947	31.4
3	Edinson Volquez	0.2914	0.3491	30.2
4	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.2900	0.2747	29.5
5	Clay Buchholz	0.2975	0.2488	28.1
6	Jason Hammel	0.2886	0.3532	28.0
7	Aníbal Sánchez	0.2916	0.2734	27.7
8	Ryan Vogelsong	0.2868	0.3636	27.1
9	Vance Worley	0.3021	0.4359	26.9
10	Scott Diamond	0.3021	0.3676	26.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.3158	0.2747	35.2
2	Madison Bumgarner	0.2994	0.2570	33.8
3	Clayton Kershaw	0.2690	0.2320	33.2
4	Justin Verlander	0.2720	0.3064	32.2
5	Francisco Liriano	0.3216	0.2757	30.3
6	A.J. Burnett	0.3228	0.2849	30.1
7	Wade Davis	0.3147	0.3615	29.1
8	Josh Johnson	0.2922	0.3675	29.0
9	Patrick Corbin	0.3284	0.2949	28.5
10	Tyson Ross	0.3374	0.2814	28.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Clayton Kershaw	0.2630	0.2320	47.1
2	Edinson Volquez	0.2869	0.3491	32.1
3	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.2908	0.2747	32.0
4	Clay Buchholz	0.3006	0.2488	30.2
5	Koji Uehara	0.2654	0.1768	29.0
6	Aníbal Sánchez	0.2899	0.2734	27.9
7	Madison Bumgarner	0.2703	0.2570	27.4
8	Vance Worley	0.3012	0.4359	26.6
9	Scott Diamond	0.3009	0.3676	26.4
10	Justin Masterson	0.2956	0.2841	26.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ervin Santana	0.3220	0.2947	37.6
2	Jason Hammel	0.2790	0.3532	35.3
3	Justin Verlander	0.2534	0.3064	33.7
4	Ryan Vogelsong	0.2820	0.3636	30.4
5	Ian Kennedy	0.2853	0.3400	30.3
6	Neal Cotts	0.3443	0.2252	30.2
7	Luis Avilán	0.3243	0.2245	29.8
8	Alex Torres	0.3323	0.2187	29.4
9	Tanner Roark	0.3385	0.2123	29.1
10	Edinson Volquez	0.2959	0.3491	28.6

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Max Scherzer	0.3235	0.2811	0.2581	54.4	35.0	19.4
2	Stephen Strasburg	0.2906	0.2487	0.2658	17.8	1.2	16.6
3	R.A. Dickey	0.2931	0.2903	0.3189	24.7	9.2	15.5
4	Francisco Liriano	0.3216	0.2797	0.2757	30.3	15.2	15.1
5	Andrew Cashner	0.3149	0.2743	0.2816	23.2	8.1	15.1
6	Scott Feldman	0.3280	0.2895	0.2948	24.9	10.3	14.6
7	Rick Porcello	0.3391	0.3003	0.3113	20.2	5.8	14.4
8	Patrick Corbin	0.3284	0.2925	0.2949	28.5	14.2	14.4
9	Tyson Ross	0.3374	0.2919	0.2814	28.0	14.7	13.3
10	Paul Clemens	0.3135	0.3325	0.3714	18.8	6.5	12.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Clayton Kershaw	0.2630	0.2530	0.2320	47.1	36.1	11.0
2	Mat Latos	0.2835	0.2762	0.2933	9.7	1.5	8.2
3	Félix Hernández	0.2715	0.2640	0.2828	7.9	0.0	7.8
4	Kyle Lohse	0.2945	0.2840	0.3042	9.0	1.2	7.8
5	Jarrod Parker	0.2939	0.2859	0.3050	8.0	0.3	7.7
6	Chris Tillman	0.3109	0.3042	0.3182	11.5	4.1	7.4
7	Justin Grimm	0.3056	0.3237	0.3654	17.2	10.1	7.1
8	Jason Marquis	0.2891	0.3022	0.3426	16.9	11.2	5.7
9	Erik Bedard	0.2973	0.3080	0.3405	14.8	9.1	5.7
10	Jered Weaver	0.2890	0.2720	0.2959	8.9	3.3	5.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	José Fernández	0.3135	0.2807	0.2383	62.4	41.7	20.7
2	Jered Weaver	0.2549	0.2720	0.2959	15.6	3.3	12.3
3	Matt Cain	0.2555	0.2689	0.2969	19.0	7.0	12.0
4	Justin Verlander	0.2534	0.2627	0.3064	33.7	23.0	10.7
5	Kyle Lohse	0.2734	0.2840	0.3042	11.5	1.2	10.4
6	Todd Redmond	0.3597	0.3285	0.3298	15.0	5.7	9.3
7	Jarrod Parker	0.2778	0.2859	0.3050	8.8	0.3	8.5
8	Alex Wood	0.3135	0.2854	0.2943	11.7	3.3	8.4
9	C.J. Wilson	0.2756	0.2823	0.3054	12.1	3.9	8.2
10	Félix Hernández	0.2565	0.2640	0.2828	8.1	0.0	8.1

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Rick Porcello	0.1929	0.1373 (33.4)	0.1444 (33.7)	0.1408 (33.2)	0.1339 (34.2)
Scott Kazmir	0.2411	0.1425 (59.4)	0.1705 (45.6)	0.1459 (59.2)	0.1390 (60.1)
Yovani Gallardo	0.1863	0.2337 (44.6)	0.2302 (36.1)	0.2288 (38.4)	0.2386 (50.2)
Trevor Rosenthal	0.3473	0.2189 (36.7)	0.2089 (42.2)	0.2258 (35.6)	0.2119 (38.2)
Yu Darvish	0.3294	0.2620 (48.0)	0.2444 (69.1)	0.2527 (58.5)	0.2713 (38.2)
Aníbal Sánchez	0.2708	0.1815 (58.9)	0.2091 (44.0)	0.1852 (58.5)	0.1779 (59.9)
A.J. Burnett	0.2609	0.1891 (49.3)	0.2011 (45.7)	0.1943 (47.7)	0.1840 (51.5)
Luke Hochevar	0.3130	0.1669 (35.6)	0.1741 (35.6)	0.1720 (35.1)	0.1619 (36.3)
Danny Farquhar	0.3465	0.1773 (36.2)	0.1909 (34.8)	0.1771 (37.0)	0.1776 (35.6)
Justin Masterson	0.2428	0.1706 (49.7)	0.1779 (49.9)	0.1705 (52.4)	0.1708 (47.8)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Andrew Cashner	0.2346	0.1810	45.1
2	John Lackey	0.1419	0.2069	42.6
3	Esmil Rogers	0.2210	0.1605	42.3
4	Dallas Keuchel	0.1100	0.1804	41.0
5	Julio Teheran	0.1649	0.2196	34.5
6	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.1952	0.2497	34.4
7	Jose Quintana	0.1457	0.1971	34.2
8	Aroldis Chapman	0.2954	0.4341	33.1
9	Jake Westbrook	0.1364	0.0841	32.7
10	Danny Salazar	0.1441	0.3081	32.4

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	José Fernández	0.1986	0.2746	49.9
2	Dylan Axelrod	0.1891	0.1246	39.4
3	Greg Holland	0.2555	0.4039	37.1
4	Lucas Harrell	0.1750	0.1259	36.7
5	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.2003	0.2497	36.2
6	Max Scherzer	0.2411	0.2871	36.1
7	Jake Westbrook	0.1488	0.0841	35.3
8	Andy Pettitte	0.2046	0.1633	34.6
9	Scott Diamond	0.1451	0.0903	33.2
10	Matt Harvey	0.2262	0.2768	33.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Andrew Cashner	0.2529	0.1810	55.8
2	Dallas Keuchel	0.1093	0.1804	43.6
3	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.1896	0.2497	41.2
4	Esmil Rogers	0.2195	0.1605	39.5
5	John Lackey	0.1500	0.2069	38.7
6	Danny Salazar	0.1309	0.3081	35.9
7	Dylan Axelrod	0.1773	0.1246	35.1
8	Homer Bailey	0.1891	0.2344	32.4
9	Jake Westbrook	0.1384	0.0841	32.1
10	Andy Pettitte	0.1967	0.1633	31.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Lackey	0.1338	0.2069	47.1
2	Esmil Rogers	0.2225	0.1605	44.6
3	José Fernández	0.1986	0.2746	43.2
4	Aroldis Chapman	0.2648	0.4341	40.4
5	Julio Teheran	0.1567	0.2196	39.0
6	Dallas Keuchel	0.1107	0.1804	39.0
7	Jason Hammel	0.2067	0.1571	38.0
8	Jose Quintana	0.1394	0.1971	37.5
9	Bud Norris	0.2245	0.1902	36.3
10	Andrew Cashner	0.2163	0.1810	33.8

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	José Fernández	0.1986	0.2288	0.2746	49.9	24.2	25.7
2	Jonathan Pettibone	0.1986	0.1418	0.1510	22.0	0.5	21.5
3	Yu Darvish	0.2444	0.2620	0.3294	69.1	48.0	21.1
4	Kenley Jansen	0.3053	0.3625	0.3801	21.0	2.2	18.9
5	Tony Cingrani	0.2066	0.2387	0.2857	32.1	15.4	16.6
6	Donovan Hand	0.1986	0.1362	0.1294	20.6	4.9	15.7
7	Paul Clemens	0.1986	0.1401	0.1517	16.0	0.4	15.6
8	Andrew Albers	0.1986	0.1292	0.1004	25.1	9.7	15.4
9	Lucas Harrell	0.1750	0.1463	0.1259	36.7	21.7	14.9
10	R.A. Dickey	0.2010	0.1780	0.1877	15.2	0.5	14.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Andrew Cashner	0.2529	0.2346	0.1810	55.8	45.1	10.7
2	Yu Darvish	0.2527	0.2620	0.3294	58.5	48.0	10.5
3	Jeff Locke	0.1947	0.1777	0.1758	18.5	8.7	9.8
4	Eric Stults	0.1592	0.1459	0.1529	11.5	2.9	8.6
5	Cliff Lee	0.2298	0.2364	0.2534	14.5	6.0	8.5
6	Koji Uehara	0.2588	0.2864	0.3811	30.5	22.4	8.1
7	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.1712	0.1773	0.2136	30.6	22.6	8.0
8	Kenley Jansen	0.3408	0.3625	0.3801	9.4	2.2	7.3
9	Dylan Axelrod	0.1773	0.1619	0.1246	35.1	27.9	7.2
10	Carter Capps	0.2966	0.2672	0.2444	16.0	8.9	7.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	José Fernández	0.1986	0.2288	0.2746	43.2	24.2	19.0
2	Andrew Albers	0.1986	0.1292	0.1004	27.6	9.7	17.9
3	Taylor Jordan	0.1986	0.1187	0.1318	17.5	0.6	16.8
4	Seth Maness	0.1986	0.1345	0.1406	17.6	1.0	16.5
5	Wei-Yin Chen	0.1263	0.1571	0.1818	24.6	8.3	16.3
6	Bud Norris	0.2245	0.2126	0.1902	36.3	25.3	11.0
7	Corey Kluber	0.1558	0.1762	0.2237	33.6	22.6	11.0
8	Tyson Ross	0.1576	0.1805	0.2361	33.2	22.9	10.4
9	Jeff Samardzija	0.2396	0.2314	0.2341	16.5	6.9	9.5
10	Jason Hammel	0.2067	0.1934	0.1571	38.0	28.4	9.5

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jeff Locke	0.1181	0.0861 (25.7)	0.0820 (25.7)	0.0836 (27.8)	0.0885 (23.4)
Eric Stults	0.0467	0.0825 (27.2)	0.0739 (23.3)	0.0785 (23.4)	0.0865 (31.3)
David Price	0.0365	0.0744 (25.0)	0.0754 (28.8)	0.0762 (26.0)	0.0726 (24.3)
Jason Marquis	0.1313	0.0758 (30.9)	0.0763 (28.5)	0.0745 (31.8)	0.0771 (29.8)
Ian Kennedy	0.0919	0.0656 (24.2)	0.0675 (19.4)	0.0663 (24.0)	0.0649 (24.1)
Roy Halladay	0.1277	0.0455 (24.3)	0.0511 (21.6)	0.0481 (23.7)	0.0430 (24.8)
Adam Wainwright	0.0366	0.0632 (21.4)	0.0671 (29.1)	0.0638 (21.7)	0.0625 (21.6)
Randall Delgado	0.0486	0.1025 (23.5)	0.0938 (21.3)	0.1036 (23.8)	0.1014 (23.4)
Lucas Harrell	0.1245	0.0971 (22.3)	0.0920 (22.9)	0.0981 (21.9)	0.0961 (22.4)
Matt Harvey	0.0449	0.1002 (35.3)	0.0900 (31.1)	0.1028 (36.8)	0.0975 (34.0)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Archer	0.1273	0.0724	26.7
2	Scott Kazmir	0.1114	0.0699	25.1
3	Corey Kluber	0.0969	0.0543	23.4
4	Wily Peralta	0.1231	0.0910	22.4
5	Ryan Dempster	0.0806	0.1048	21.3
6	Carlos Torres	0.1100	0.0483	20.3
7	Samuel Deduno	0.1349	0.0889	19.3
8	Julio Teheran	0.0869	0.0581	19.1
9	Justin Verlander	0.0646	0.0811	19.1
10	Shelby Miller	0.1077	0.0789	17.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0814	0.0485	28.5
2	Dillon Gee	0.0821	0.0559	22.1
3	John Lackey	0.0788	0.0514	21.3
4	Chris Sale	0.0755	0.0531	19.4
5	Mike Minor	0.0790	0.0561	18.8
6	Jhoulys Chacín	0.0970	0.0748	18.1
7	Andrew Cashner	0.0921	0.0665	18.1
8	Julio Teheran	0.0814	0.0581	18.1
9	Aaron Harang	0.0921	0.0639	17.6
10	John Danks	0.0764	0.0463	17.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Archer	0.1269	0.0724	26.2
2	Scott Kazmir	0.1062	0.0699	21.3
3	Chris Sale	0.0818	0.0531	20.9
4	Corey Kluber	0.0918	0.0543	20.0
5	Ryan Dempster	0.0832	0.1048	19.7
6	Julio Teheran	0.0877	0.0581	19.3
7	Wily Peralta	0.1192	0.0910	18.9
8	Martín Pérez	0.1098	0.0699	18.7
9	Andrew Cashner	0.0973	0.0665	18.6
10	Justin Verlander	0.0656	0.0811	18.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Scott Kazmir	0.1165	0.0699	29.1
2	Chris Archer	0.1278	0.0724	27.4
3	Corey Kluber	0.1021	0.0543	27.0
4	Wily Peralta	0.1270	0.0910	26.2
5	Shelby Miller	0.1177	0.0789	25.6
6	Carlos Torres	0.1231	0.0483	25.2
7	Samuel Deduno	0.1415	0.0889	22.7
8	Ryan Dempster	0.0780	0.1048	22.7
9	R.A. Dickey	0.0566	0.0753	20.8
10	Madison Bumgarner	0.0562	0.0772	19.5

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0814	0.0660	0.0485	28.5	11.6	16.9
2	Johnny Hellweg	0.0792	0.1692	0.1605	13.2	0.7	12.4
3	Zack Wheeler	0.0792	0.1139	0.1067	11.9	1.3	10.6
4	Yoervis Medina	0.0792	0.1193	0.1375	17.0	6.5	10.5
5	Bartolo Colon	0.0553	0.0468	0.0377	13.5	3.8	9.7
6	Roberto Hernandez	0.0765	0.0665	0.0591	11.2	2.1	9.1
7	Ethan Martin	0.0792	0.1513	0.1368	11.0	2.0	9.0
8	Jarred Cosart	0.0792	0.1190	0.1423	15.5	6.7	8.8
9	Andy Pettitte	0.0767	0.0700	0.0612	12.2	3.7	8.5
10	Mat Latos	0.0763	0.0717	0.0658	9.3	1.5	7.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jeff Samardzija	0.1019	0.0886	0.0853	11.0	0.8	10.2
2	Yu Darvish	0.0841	0.0937	0.0951	13.1	4.7	8.4
3	Aaron Loup	0.0914	0.0732	0.0461	11.5	6.5	5.0
4	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0722	0.0660	0.0485	16.6	11.6	5.0
5	Chris Tillman	0.0911	0.0844	0.0805	5.1	0.2	4.9
6	Chris Sale	0.0818	0.0760	0.0531	20.9	16.3	4.6
7	Jarred Cosart	0.1046	0.1190	0.1423	10.4	6.7	3.6
8	Jacob Turner	0.0856	0.0921	0.1051	12.4	8.8	3.6
9	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0839	0.0789	0.0626	13.1	9.5	3.6
10	Patrick Corbin	0.0750	0.0704	0.0628	6.6	3.0	3.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jeff Samardzija	0.0752	0.0886	0.0853	12.3	0.8	11.5
2	Kevin Gregg	0.0792	0.1133	0.1190	11.6	2.6	9.0
3	Shelby Miller	0.1177	0.1077	0.0789	25.6	17.8	7.8
4	Wei-Yin Chen	0.0481	0.0616	0.0682	13.4	6.1	7.2
5	Jorge De La Rosa	0.1052	0.0961	0.0868	10.8	3.6	7.1
6	Héctor Santiago	0.1341	0.1241	0.1098	13.8	6.7	7.1
7	André Rienzo	0.0792	0.1247	0.1120	9.0	2.1	6.9
8	Josh Fields	0.0792	0.1185	0.1125	5.9	0.3	5.6
9	Dan Straily	0.1037	0.0959	0.0891	7.2	1.7	5.5
10	Wade Miley	0.0606	0.0676	0.0779	17.4	12.3	5.2

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Doug Fister	0.0182	0.0105 (7.4)	0.0104 (6.7)	0.0101 (7.2)	0.0109 (7.4)
Mat Latos	0.0114	0.0043 (6.9)	0.0039 (6.4)	0.0049 (5.9)	0.0036 (7.9)
Roy Halladay	0.0355	0.0061 (8.5)	0.0062 (8.2)	0.0068 (8.1)	0.0054 (8.8)
Iván Nova	0.0239	0.0099 (8.6)	0.0099 (8.1)	0.0090 (8.8)	0.0107 (8.4)
Stephen Strasburg	0.0164	0.0061 (8.1)	0.0067 (7.0)	0.0069 (7.1)	0.0053 (9.0)
Mark Buehrle	0.0103	0.0038 (6.3)	0.0040 (5.3)	0.0048 (5.0)	0.0028 (7.6)
Scott Kazmir	0.0045	0.0165 (7.6)	0.0152 (7.3)	0.0143 (6.4)	0.0188 (8.8)
Johnny Hellweg	0.0494	0.0157 (5.6)	0.0083 (6.6)	0.0162 (5.4)	0.0153 (5.7)
Charlie Morton	0.0325	0.0132 (9.9)	0.0133 (9.4)	0.0124 (10.0)	0.0139 (9.7)
Francisco Liriano	0.0000	0.0103 (6.4)	0.0110 (7.4)	0.0102 (6.7)	0.0104 (6.1)
Chris Sale	0.0162	0.0073 (8.3)	0.0084 (6.6)	0.0078 (7.5)	0.0068 (9.2)
Jake Westbrook	0.0191	0.0076 (6.4)	0.0072 (6.2)	0.0079 (6.0)	0.0074 (6.8)
Justin Masterson	0.0212	0.0123 (7.7)	0.0125 (6.8)	0.0119 (7.6)	0.0128 (7.7)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Garrett Richards	0.0116	0.0016	5.7
2	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0094	0.0023	5.5
3	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0089	0.0013	5.4
4	John Lackey	0.0153	0.0077	5.3
5	Roberto Hernandez	0.0128	0.0202	5.3
6	Miguel González	0.0123	0.0042	5.2
7	Ricky Nolasco	0.0068	0.0120	4.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Lackey	0.0152	0.0077	5.9
2	Julio Teheran	0.0090	0.0168	5.8
3	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0083	0.0013	5.7
4	Héctor Santiago	0.0144	0.0229	5.4
5	Aaron Loup	0.0059	0.0248	5.3
6	Dillon Gee	0.0143	0.0083	5.2
7	Félix Hernández	0.0097	0.0036	5.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Héctor Santiago	0.0117	0.0229	7.5
2	Roberto Hernandez	0.0112	0.0202	5.9
3	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0087	0.0013	5.7
4	Garrett Richards	0.0103	0.0016	5.3
5	Miguel González	0.0114	0.0042	5.0
6	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0080	0.0023	4.7
7	Jim Johnson	0.0083	0.0241	4.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Lackey	0.0172	0.0077	6.4
2	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0109	0.0023	6.4
3	Kris Medlen	0.0033	0.0098	6.3
4	Garrett Richards	0.0128	0.0016	6.2
5	Jordan Lyles	0.0095	0.0171	5.6
6	Aaron Loup	0.0061	0.0248	5.6
7	Jason Hammel	0.0053	0.0131	5.5

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chris Archer	0.0073	0.0125	0.0152	4.1	1.8	2.2
2	Zach McAllister	0.0036	0.0078	0.0104	3.8	1.9	1.9
3	Trevor Rosenthal	0.0063	0.0130	0.0193	4.0	2.2	1.8
4	Bartolo Colon	0.0049	0.0036	0.0000	3.9	2.2	1.7
5	Julio Teheran	0.0090	0.0120	0.0168	5.8	4.2	1.6
6	Brandon Maurer	0.0083	0.0131	0.0149	2.6	1.0	1.6
7	Kyle Kendrick	0.0102	0.0095	0.0088	1.3	0.0	1.3
8	Dylan Axelrod	0.0128	0.0115	0.0068	3.6	2.3	1.3
9	Andrew Cashner	0.0088	0.0079	0.0057	2.3	1.1	1.3
10	Joe Kelly	0.0067	0.0102	0.0094	1.3	0.1	1.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Héctor Santiago	0.0117	0.0166	0.0229	7.5	4.6	2.9
2	Bartolo Colon	0.0054	0.0036	0.0000	4.0	2.2	1.8
3	Dallas Keuchel	0.0053	0.0082	0.0073	1.5	0.1	1.4
4	Justin Verlander	0.0059	0.0052	0.0043	1.3	0.1	1.2
5	Kyle Lohse	0.0060	0.0051	0.0037	1.7	0.5	1.1
6	Brandon Maurer	0.0098	0.0131	0.0149	2.1	1.0	1.1
7	Donovan Hand	0.0066	0.0109	0.0175	3.2	2.1	1.1
8	Nate Jones	0.0089	0.0060	0.0032	1.7	0.7	1.1
9	Andrew Cashner	0.0089	0.0079	0.0057	2.1	1.1	1.0
10	Jeremy Hefner	0.0061	0.0085	0.0090	1.7	0.7	1.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jarrod Parker	0.0047	0.0065	0.0086	4.1	2.3	1.8
2	Andy Pettitte	0.0026	0.0043	0.0051	2.9	1.2	1.7
3	Nick Tepesch	0.0083	0.0121	0.0172	4.1	2.4	1.7
4	Martín Pérez	0.0138	0.0102	0.0057	3.7	2.0	1.7
5	Dallas Keuchel	0.0111	0.0082	0.0073	1.7	0.1	1.6
6	Tony Cingrani	0.0147	0.0106	0.0048	3.7	2.1	1.5
7	Jeff Samardzija	0.0056	0.0068	0.0088	4.0	2.5	1.5
8	Kris Medlen	0.0033	0.0046	0.0098	6.3	4.8	1.5
9	Ernesto Frieri	0.0246	0.0195	0.0103	3.8	2.5	1.3
10	Mark Buehrle	0.0028	0.0038	0.0103	7.6	6.3	1.3

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jhoulys Chacín	0.0176	0.0340 (14.0)	0.0369 (15.7)	0.0315 (13.1)	0.0365 (15.0)
Randall Delgado	0.0649	0.0350 (13.8)	0.0350 (14.2)	0.0302 (15.4)	0.0397 (12.1)
Jorge De La Rosa	0.0206	0.0369 (12.3)	0.0421 (15.2)	0.0348 (11.7)	0.0391 (12.9)
Yu Darvish	0.0546	0.0309 (19.2)	0.0300 (20.8)	0.0324 (16.9)	0.0294 (21.7)
John Danks	0.0605	0.0371 (13.2)	0.0334 (15.9)	0.0380 (11.9)	0.0362 (14.4)
A.J. Griffin	0.0606	0.0375 (18.3)	0.0380 (18.8)	0.0360 (18.5)	0.0391 (18.2)
Matt Harvey	0.0151	0.0341 (13.7)	0.0344 (13.2)	0.0348 (15.0)	0.0334 (12.3)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mat Latos	0.0381	0.0224	14.6
2	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0436	0.0259	14.5
3	Joe Blanton	0.0394	0.0624	13.5
4	R.A. Dickey	0.0360	0.0511	13.5
5	Aníbal Sánchez	0.0350	0.0184	12.9
6	Aaron Harang	0.0349	0.0557	12.5
7	Freddy Garcia	0.0304	0.0674	12.0
8	Dan Haren	0.0360	0.0530	11.7
9	Clayton Kershaw	0.0297	0.0177	11.6
10	Travis Wood	0.0431	0.0299	11.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	R.A. Dickey	0.0317	0.0511	18.4
2	Chris Tillman	0.0375	0.0555	15.3
3	Jeff Locke	0.0439	0.0222	15.3
4	Henderson Alvarez	0.0409	0.0061	14.5
5	A.J. Burnett	0.0395	0.0213	14.5
6	Aaron Harang	0.0330	0.0557	14.3
7	Félix Doubront	0.0450	0.0265	12.9
8	Tyler Thornburg	0.0519	0.0052	12.6
9	Jarrod Parker	0.0255	0.0407	12.5
10	Derek Holland	0.0452	0.0313	12.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mat Latos	0.0383	0.0224	15.9
2	R.A. Dickey	0.0322	0.0511	15.8
3	Clayton Kershaw	0.0330	0.0177	15.8
4	Joe Blanton	0.0349	0.0624	15.5
5	Aníbal Sánchez	0.0354	0.0184	14.2
6	Roberto Hernandez	0.0260	0.0501	14.2
7	Travis Wood	0.0446	0.0299	13.8
8	Dan Haren	0.0333	0.0530	12.6
9	Jason Marquis	0.0217	0.0481	12.6
10	Freddy Garcia	0.0309	0.0674	11.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0557	0.0259	22.9
2	Derek Holland	0.0499	0.0313	16.1
3	Jarrod Parker	0.0224	0.0407	15.4
4	Aaron Harang	0.0323	0.0557	15.0
5	Tommy Milone	0.0296	0.0500	14.0
6	Mat Latos	0.0380	0.0224	13.3
7	Brandon Maurer	0.0223	0.0535	12.7
8	Freddy Garcia	0.0300	0.0674	12.6
9	Matt Cain	0.0269	0.0424	12.2
10	James Shields	0.0429	0.0297	12.0

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	A.J. Burnett	0.0395	0.0276	0.0213	14.5	5.7	8.8
2	Jeff Locke	0.0439	0.0328	0.0222	15.3	8.1	7.2
3	Dan Straily	0.0520	0.0409	0.0354	10.5	4.0	6.5
4	Félix Doubront	0.0450	0.0354	0.0265	12.9	6.8	6.1
5	Chris Tillman	0.0375	0.0435	0.0555	15.3	9.4	5.9
6	Jacob Turner	0.0444	0.0319	0.0290	7.8	1.9	5.9
7	Henderson Alvarez	0.0409	0.0262	0.0061	14.5	8.7	5.8
8	Todd Redmond	0.0363	0.0530	0.0594	7.5	1.8	5.7
9	Andrew Cashner	0.0385	0.0297	0.0227	11.0	5.5	5.5
10	Jon Lester	0.0374	0.0307	0.0291	7.3	2.1	5.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Todd Redmond	0.0369	0.0530	0.0594	6.6	1.8	4.8
2	Justin Verlander	0.0375	0.0338	0.0302	8.7	4.1	4.7
3	Jered Weaver	0.0444	0.0388	0.0359	6.7	2.3	4.4
4	Dillon Gee	0.0293	0.0356	0.0372	4.9	0.7	4.2
5	Clayton Kershaw	0.0330	0.0297	0.0177	15.8	11.6	4.2
6	Jason Marquis	0.0217	0.0307	0.0481	12.6	8.6	4.0
7	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0275	0.0332	0.0392	8.4	4.6	3.8
8	Roberto Hernandez	0.0260	0.0325	0.0501	14.2	10.8	3.3
9	Jerome Williams	0.0275	0.0330	0.0409	8.3	5.2	3.1
10	C.J. Wilson	0.0286	0.0272	0.0237	6.4	3.9	2.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0557	0.0436	0.0259	22.9	14.5	8.4
2	Ervin Santana	0.0541	0.0439	0.0406	11.1	3.5	7.6
3	James Shields	0.0429	0.0355	0.0297	12.0	6.2	5.8
4	Matt Cain	0.0269	0.0322	0.0424	12.2	7.2	5.0
5	Derek Holland	0.0499	0.0430	0.0313	16.1	11.2	4.9
6	Steve Delabar	0.0755	0.0559	0.0286	11.7	7.1	4.6
7	Mike Leake	0.0442	0.0374	0.0336	8.1	3.7	4.4
8	Kevin Correia	0.0454	0.0386	0.0373	6.0	1.7	4.3
9	Jarrod Parker	0.0224	0.0260	0.0407	15.4	11.4	4.0
10	Kyle Lohse	0.0286	0.0318	0.0405	10.0	6.4	3.6

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Barry Zito	0.3461	0.2792 (38.0)	0.2814 (38.1)	0.2848 (35.2)	0.2735 (40.7)
Justin Verlander	0.3164	0.2777 (31.6)	0.2679 (43.1)	0.2826 (28.3)	0.2729 (35.1)
Joe Saunders	0.3323	0.2846 (35.4)	0.2919 (31.5)	0.2935 (29.1)	0.2758 (41.7)
Wade Davis	0.3607	0.2862 (43.3)	0.2825 (47.1)	0.2887 (42.4)	0.2837 (44.1)
Scott Feldman	0.2583	0.2934 (30.0)	0.3068 (38.2)	0.2905 (26.9)	0.2962 (32.9)
Hisashi Iwakuma	0.2516	0.2891 (36.3)	0.2852 (30.8)	0.2970 (42.1)	0.2811 (30.3)
José Fernández	0.2399	0.2887 (36.3)	0.2936 (37.8)	0.2887 (35.5)	0.2936 (40.3)
Tyler Clippard	0.1697	0.2676 (28.2)	0.2667 (27.2)	0.2672 (27.7)	0.2680 (28.6)
Jose Mijares	0.4103	0.2790 (29.9)	0.2965 (26.4)	0.2804 (29.9)	0.2776 (30.0)
Madison Bumgarner	0.2514	0.2870 (32.1)	0.2949 (36.4)	0.2904 (33.9)	0.2836 (30.3)
A.J. Griffin	0.2419	0.2796 (34.7)	0.2796 (32.6)	0.2857 (38.7)	0.2736 (30.6)
Doug Fister	0.3318	0.2926 (30.6)	0.2889 (36.1)	0.2949 (29.6)	0.2903 (31.6)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Travis Wood	0.2842	0.2479	33.5
2	Max Scherzer	0.2925	0.2587	32.0
3	Joe Blanton	0.2896	0.3463	31.9
4	Bud Norris	0.2898	0.3333	30.2
5	Jarrod Parker	0.2895	0.2598	28.0
6	Clayton Kershaw	0.2745	0.2508	25.6
7	R.A. Dickey	0.2869	0.2646	25.2
8	Edinson Volquez	0.2879	0.3246	25.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Max Scherzer	0.3149	0.2587	48.6
2	Dallas Keuchel	0.2848	0.3402	36.5
3	Jeremy Hellickson	0.2575	0.3073	35.3
4	Stephen Strasburg	0.3042	0.2632	31.4
5	John Lackey	0.3178	0.2807	30.3
6	Alfredo Simon	0.3134	0.2362	28.4
7	Yu Darvish	0.2952	0.2644	27.5
8	Justin Wilson	0.3171	0.2289	26.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bud Norris	0.2853	0.3333	34.6
2	Joe Blanton	0.2869	0.3463	34.3
3	R.A. Dickey	0.2951	0.2646	31.9
4	Clayton Kershaw	0.2826	0.2508	31.8
5	Travis Wood	0.2815	0.2479	30.3
6	Jarrod Parker	0.2905	0.2598	27.8
7	Dallas Keuchel	0.2962	0.3402	27.8
8	Ervin Santana	0.2947	0.2667	26.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Max Scherzer	0.3026	0.2587	41.4
2	Travis Wood	0.2868	0.2479	36.5
3	Joe Blanton	0.2923	0.3463	29.6
4	Jeremy Hellickson	0.2621	0.3073	29.2
5	Jarrod Parker	0.2885	0.2598	28.0
6	Edinson Volquez	0.2855	0.3246	26.1
7	Bud Norris	0.2944	0.3333	25.8
8	Josh Johnson	0.2848	0.3557	25.1

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Esmil Rogers	0.3305	0.3001	0.3039	17.0	0.3	16.7
2	Max Scherzer	0.3149	0.2925	0.2587	48.6	32.0	16.5
3	John Lackey	0.3178	0.2974	0.2807	30.3	16.5	13.8
4	Zack Greinke	0.3074	0.2856	0.2763	23.6	9.8	13.8
5	Tyson Ross	0.3208	0.2918	0.2822	20.4	7.1	13.3
6	Jeremy Hellickson	0.2575	0.2728	0.3073	35.3	22.1	13.2
7	Dallas Keuchel	0.2848	0.3009	0.3402	36.5	23.8	12.7
8	Eric Stults	0.2718	0.2838	0.3018	24.1	11.6	12.5
9	Justin Verlander	0.2679	0.2777	0.3164	43.1	31.6	11.5
10	Jorge De La Rosa	0.2829	0.2953	0.3034	13.3	2.6	10.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tim Hudson	0.3002	0.2850	0.2813	11.8	4.4	7.4
2	Trevor Cahill	0.3013	0.2886	0.2889	10.0	2.6	7.3
3	R.A. Dickey	0.2951	0.2869	0.2646	31.9	25.2	6.7
4	Bronson Arroyo	0.2883	0.2791	0.2668	20.4	13.8	6.6
5	Clayton Kershaw	0.2826	0.2745	0.2508	31.8	25.6	6.3
6	Matt Cain	0.2818	0.2725	0.2601	18.9	12.8	6.1
7	Erik Bedard	0.2903	0.2984	0.3075	9.2	3.1	6.1
8	Corey Kluber	0.2939	0.3023	0.3294	19.6	13.7	5.8
9	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.2970	0.2891	0.2516	42.1	36.3	5.8
10	Garrett Richards	0.2876	0.2948	0.3009	6.2	1.0	5.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Max Scherzer	0.3026	0.2925	0.2587	41.4	32.0	9.3
2	Roberto Hernandez	0.2703	0.2836	0.3077	20.5	12.6	7.9
3	Jeremy Hellickson	0.2621	0.2728	0.3073	29.2	22.1	7.1
4	Brad Peacock	0.3202	0.3037	0.2704	20.2	13.8	6.4
5	Joe Saunders	0.2758	0.2846	0.3323	41.7	35.4	6.3
6	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.2692	0.2783	0.2961	16.7	10.4	6.3
7	Kyle Kendrick	0.2751	0.2840	0.3058	20.1	13.9	6.2
8	Zach McAllister	0.3110	0.3014	0.2951	12.4	6.2	6.2
9	C.J. Wilson	0.2765	0.2840	0.2998	16.3	10.4	5.9
10	Mark Buehrle	0.2825	0.2903	0.3047	14.6	8.7	5.9

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Barry Zito	0.2652	0.2792 (31.4)	0.2026 (36.1)	0.2848 (28.7)	0.2735 (33.0)
Justin Verlander	0.2475	0.2777 (32.9)	0.2037 (37.6)	0.2826 (29.4)	0.2729 (34.4)
Wade Davis	0.2881	0.2862 (41.8)	0.2082 (47.4)	0.2887 (40.9)	0.2837 (41.4)
Hisashi Iwakuma	0.1797	0.2891 (37.8)	0.2197 (37.4)	0.2970 (43.7)	0.2811 (33.6)
Max Scherzer	0.1795	0.2925 (39.5)	0.2383 (51.8)	0.2824 (30.1)	0.3026 (50.6)
Juan Nicasio	0.1928	0.3052 (32.8)	0.2353 (32.1)	0.2998 (28.3)	0.3106 (38.8)
Doug Fister	0.2762	0.2926 (43.5)	0.2182 (48.3)	0.2949 (42.4)	0.2903 (42.7)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Travis Wood	0.2842	0.1812	30.6
2	Josh Johnson	0.2912	0.2925	25.7
3	Scott Feldman	0.2934	0.1937	25.7
4	Koji Uehara	0.2748	0.1141	25.2
5	Tony Cingrani	0.2857	0.1618	24.4
6	Caleb Thielbar	0.2959	0.0877	24.4
7	R.A. Dickey	0.2869	0.1954	24.3
8	Jordan Zimmermann	0.2839	0.1912	23.3
9	Jake Arrieta	0.2896	0.1531	22.9
10	Mike Pelfrey	0.2967	0.2643	22.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	A.J. Griffin	0.2303	0.1882	37.3
2	Scott Feldman	0.2386	0.1937	36.5
3	Kyle Kendrick	0.2051	0.2460	30.1
4	Jeremy Hellickson	0.1896	0.2309	28.1
5	Dallas Keuchel	0.2242	0.2676	27.4
6	Jeremy Guthrie	0.2027	0.2353	26.6
7	John Lackey	0.2373	0.2073	25.8
8	Iván Nova	0.2162	0.2630	25.6
9	Tony Cingrani	0.2195	0.1618	25.6
10	Jake Arrieta	0.2285	0.1531	25.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	R.A. Dickey	0.2951	0.1954	31.0
2	Travis Wood	0.2815	0.1812	27.5
3	Dallas Keuchel	0.2962	0.2676	26.1
4	Koji Uehara	0.2788	0.1141	25.9
5	Cole Hamels	0.2864	0.1910	25.8
6	Jordan Zimmermann	0.2876	0.1912	25.6
7	A.J. Griffin	0.2857	0.1882	25.2
8	Tony Cingrani	0.2880	0.1618	24.9
9	Mike Pelfrey	0.2958	0.2643	24.0
10	Bud Norris	0.2853	0.2495	24.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Travis Wood	0.2868	0.1812	35.3
2	Alex Wood	0.2231	0.2648	34.1
3	Nick Tepesch	0.2231	0.2351	30.3
4	Scott Feldman	0.2962	0.1937	30.3
5	Brad Peacock	0.3202	0.1803	28.2
6	Zach McAllister	0.3110	0.2000	28.1
7	Taylor Jordan	0.2231	0.2874	27.9
8	Josh Johnson	0.2848	0.2925	27.0
9	Kyle Kendrick	0.2751	0.2460	26.7
10	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.2692	0.2394	25.6

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	A.J. Griffin	0.2303	0.2796	0.1882	37.3	21.2	16.1
2	Jorge De La Rosa	0.2049	0.2953	0.2309	16.3	1.0	15.3
3	Jeremy Guthrie	0.2027	0.2885	0.2353	26.6	11.4	15.3
4	Tyson Ross	0.2528	0.2918	0.2270	14.6	0.5	14.2
5	Esmil Rogers	0.2532	0.3001	0.2251	18.8	5.5	13.2
6	Kyle Lohse	0.2004	0.2848	0.2240	16.5	4.0	12.5
7	Max Scherzer	0.2383	0.2925	0.1795	51.8	39.5	12.3
8	Tommy Milone	0.2419	0.2937	0.2126	21.6	10.2	11.4
9	Scott Feldman	0.2386	0.2934	0.1937	36.5	25.7	10.7
10	Zack Greinke	0.2315	0.2856	0.2028	22.9	12.2	10.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tim Hudson	0.3002	0.2850	0.2174	8.5	1.0	7.5
2	Héctor Rondón	0.2231	0.2934	0.2073	12.4	4.9	7.4
3	Trevor Cahill	0.3013	0.2886	0.2156	12.0	4.6	7.4
4	R.A. Dickey	0.2951	0.2869	0.1954	31.0	24.3	6.7
5	Bronson Arroyo	0.2883	0.2791	0.1981	19.3	12.6	6.7
6	Clayton Kershaw	0.2826	0.2745	0.1967	17.3	11.0	6.4
7	Matt Cain	0.2818	0.2725	0.1888	19.9	13.7	6.2
8	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.2970	0.2891	0.1797	43.7	37.8	5.9
9	Corey Kluber	0.2939	0.3023	0.2482	12.9	7.1	5.8
10	Gio Gonzalez	0.2885	0.2806	0.2011	16.8	11.2	5.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Nick Tepesch	0.2231	0.2893	0.2351	30.3	4.7	25.7
2	Alex Wood	0.2231	0.2863	0.2648	34.1	14.5	19.6
3	Sonny Gray	0.2231	0.2898	0.2294	18.0	1.4	16.6
4	Seth Maness	0.2231	0.2908	0.2296	17.2	1.1	16.1
5	Chad Bettis	0.2231	0.2971	0.2400	16.5	1.8	14.7
6	Preston Claiborne	0.2231	0.2942	0.2349	15.9	1.4	14.5
7	Taylor Jordan	0.2231	0.2889	0.2874	27.9	14.1	13.8
8	Alfredo Figaro	0.2231	0.2872	0.2121	16.3	3.0	13.3
9	Max Scherzer	0.3026	0.2925	0.1795	50.6	39.5	11.1
10	Andrew Albers	0.2231	0.2934	0.2153	13.6	3.1	10.5

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Tyler Cloyd	0.1250	0.0000 (17.2)	0.0617 (17.9)	0.0000 (17.2)	0.0000 (17.7)
Gio Gonzalez	0.0827	0.0000 (15.2)	0.0563 (21.7)	0.0000 (15.3)	0.0000 (16.8)
Joe Saunders	0.0979	0.0000 (27.7)	0.0621 (29.4)	0.0000 (27.8)	0.0000 (29.3)
CC Sabathia	0.0818	0.0000 (16.0)	0.0638 (16.4)	0.0000 (16.1)	0.0000 (17.7)
Stephen Strasburg	0.0351	0.0000 (21.2)	0.0635 (20.7)	0.0000 (21.2)	0.0000 (19.8)
José Fernández	0.0404	0.0000 (16.2)	0.0644 (16.3)	0.0000 (16.1)	0.0644 (58.7)
Juan Nicasio	0.1004	0.0000 (25.5)	0.0692 (22.0)	0.0000 (25.5)	0.0000 (26.8)
Yu Darvish	0.0422	0.0000 (18.4)	0.0762 (28.5)	0.0000 (18.4)	0.0000 (16.8)
Cole Hamels	0.0995	0.0000 (32.0)	0.0584 (37.4)	0.0000 (32.1)	0.0000 (33.7)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Michael Wacha	0.0644	0.0526	19.7
2	Matt Harvey	0.0000	0.0394	17.1
3	Ian Kennedy	0.0000	0.0848	16.4
4	Justin Masterson	0.0000	0.0438	16.3
5	Jon Lester	0.0000	0.0821	16.3
6	Bartolo Colon	0.0000	0.0443	15.2
7	Edwin Jackson	0.0000	0.0836	15.1
8	Wily Peralta	0.0000	0.0453	15.1
9	Zach McAllister	0.0000	0.0878	13.7
10	Clayton Kershaw	0.0000	0.0492	13.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Harvey	0.0711	0.0394	21.8
2	Iván Nova	0.0828	0.0496	19.4
3	Chris Sale	0.0720	0.0503	18.7
4	Jeremy Guthrie	0.0758	0.0560	17.8
5	Kyle Lohse	0.0721	0.0503	17.4
6	Eric Stults	0.0537	0.0736	17.2
7	Kyle Kendrick	0.0699	0.0485	17.0
8	Andy Pettitte	0.0520	0.0733	16.7
9	Kris Medlen	0.0544	0.0746	16.6
10	Freddy Garcia	0.0726	0.0241	16.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Michael Wacha	0.0644	0.0526	19.7
2	Matt Harvey	0.0000	0.0394	17.0
3	Ian Kennedy	0.0000	0.0848	16.4
4	Jon Lester	0.0000	0.0821	16.3
5	Justin Masterson	0.0000	0.0438	16.3
6	Edwin Jackson	0.0000	0.0836	15.2
7	Bartolo Colon	0.0000	0.0443	15.2
8	Wily Peralta	0.0000	0.0453	15.1
9	Héctor Rondón	0.0644	0.0671	14.9
10	Zach McAllister	0.0000	0.0878	13.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alfredo Figaro	0.0644	0.0519	23.6
2	Nick Tepesch	0.0644	0.0737	21.6
3	Taylor Jordan	0.0644	0.0287	21.5
4	Sonny Gray	0.0644	0.0471	20.8
5	Michael Wacha	0.0644	0.0526	19.2
6	Alex Wood	0.0644	0.0685	19.0
7	Kevin Gregg	0.0644	0.0575	18.6
8	Jon Lester	0.0000	0.0821	18.0
9	Ian Kennedy	0.0000	0.0848	17.9
10	André Rienzo	0.0644	0.0585	17.0

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Félix Hernández	0.0499	0.0681	15.1	3.3	11.8
2	Travis Wood	0.0776	0.0632	11.7	0.7	11.0
3	Iván Nova	0.0828	0.0496	19.4	8.5	10.9
4	Jeremy Guthrie	0.0758	0.0560	17.8	7.4	10.4
5	Yu Darvish	0.0762	0.0422	28.5	18.4	10.0
6	Andy Pettitte	0.0520	0.0733	16.7	7.1	9.6
7	Eric Stults	0.0537	0.0736	17.2	8.1	9.1
8	Héctor Santiago	0.0508	0.0747	15.7	6.9	8.8
9	Tim Lincecum	0.0747	0.0588	13.2	4.5	8.8
10	Homer Bailey	0.0545	0.0671	10.8	2.5	8.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Héctor Rondón	0.0644	0.0671	14.9	0.7	14.1
2	Adam Wainwright	0.0000	0.0705	6.1	6.1	0.1
3	R.A. Dickey	0.0000	0.0646	0.5	0.4	0.1
4	Jeff Samardzija	0.0000	0.0696	5.1	5.0	0.1
5	C.J. Wilson	0.0000	0.0665	2.2	2.1	0.1
6	CC Sabathia	0.0000	0.0818	16.1	16.0	0.1
7	Cole Hamels	0.0000	0.0995	32.1	32.0	0.1
8	Jon Lester	0.0000	0.0821	16.3	16.3	0.1
9	Derek Holland	0.0000	0.0793	13.6	13.5	0.1
10	Mark Buehrle	0.0000	0.0766	11.0	10.9	0.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	José Fernández	0.0644	0.0404	58.7	16.2	42.6
2	Alfredo Figaro	0.0644	0.0519	23.6	3.9	19.7
3	Nick Tepesch	0.0644	0.0737	21.6	3.9	17.7
4	Alex Wood	0.0644	0.0685	19.0	1.4	17.6
5	Kevin Gregg	0.0644	0.0575	18.6	1.8	16.8
6	Sonny Gray	0.0644	0.0471	20.8	4.5	16.3
7	André Rienzo	0.0644	0.0585	17.0	1.4	15.6
8	Andrew Albers	0.0644	0.0622	16.0	0.5	15.6
9	Taylor Jordan	0.0644	0.0287	21.5	7.8	13.7
10	Preston Claiborne	0.0644	0.0537	15.6	2.2	13.4

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Trevor Cahill	0.0133	0.0000 (4.6)	0.0055 (5.8)	0.0000 (4.6)	0.0000 (4.7)
Julio Teheran	0.0115	0.0000 (4.2)	0.0065 (4.8)	0.0000 (4.2)	0.0000 (4.3)
Aaron Harang	0.0136	0.0000 (4.7)	0.0060 (5.5)	0.0000 (4.7)	0.0000 (4.8)
Tyler Lyons	0.0256	0.0000 (4.4)	0.0061 (4.6)	0.0000 (4.4)	0.0000 (4.4)
Kevin Slowey	0.0175	0.0000 (4.5)	0.0056 (5.2)	0.0000 (4.5)	0.0000 (4.6)
Kyle Kendrick	0.0113	0.0000 (4.2)	0.0047 (6.3)	0.0000 (4.2)	0.0000 (4.4)
Tom Koehler	0.0183	0.0000 (7.4)	0.0093 (6.1)	0.0000 (7.4)	0.0000 (7.5)
Ryan Webb	0.0328	0.0000 (8.9)	0.0053 (9.5)	0.0000 (8.9)	0.0000 (8.9)
Philip Humber	0.0311	0.0000 (6.5)	0.0057 (6.9)	0.0000 (6.5)	0.0000 (6.5)
Jeremy Hellickson	0.0134	0.0000 (5.4)	0.0060 (6.3)	0.0000 (5.4)	0.0000 (5.5)
Lance Lynn	0.0162	0.0000 (8.7)	0.0103 (6.0)	0.0000 (8.7)	0.0000 (8.8)
Dan Jennings	0.0431	0.0000 (6.3)	0.0095 (5.9)	0.0000 (6.3)	0.0000 (6.4)
Aníbal Sánchez	0.0167	0.0000 (7.9)	0.0097 (6.1)	0.0000 (8.0)	0.0000 (8.1)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	Edinson Volquez	0.0131	5.4
2	Edwin Jackson	0.0125	5.0
3	A.J. Griffin	0.0000	5.0
4	Mat Latos	0.0114	4.8
5	Junichi Tazawa	0.0211	4.3
6	Mark Buehrle	0.0015	4.0
7	Dan Straily	0.0000	3.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.0145	0.0041	7.1
2	Adam Wainwright	0.0111	0.0029	6.6
3	Wade Miley	0.0121	0.0033	6.5
4	Dallas Keuchel	0.0030	0.0104	5.8
5	Erik Bedard	0.0052	0.0117	5.1
6	Bud Norris	0.0043	0.0093	4.8
7	Anthony Swarzak	0.0035	0.0139	4.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	Edinson Volquez	0.0131	5.5
2	Edwin Jackson	0.0125	5.0
3	A.J. Griffin	0.0000	5.0
4	Mat Latos	0.0114	4.8
5	Junichi Tazawa	0.0211	4.3
6	Mark Buehrle	0.0015	3.9
7	Dan Straily	0.0000	3.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Edinson Volquez	0.0000	0.0131	5.6
2	Edwin Jackson	0.0000	0.0125	5.1
3	Mat Latos	0.0000	0.0114	4.9
4	José Fernández	0.0061	0.0048	4.9
5	Nick Tepesch	0.0061	0.0000	4.9
6	A.J. Griffin	0.0000	0.0000	4.8
7	Junichi Tazawa	0.0000	0.0211	4.3

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.0145	0.0041	7.1	1.5	5.7
2	Wade Miley	0.0121	0.0033	6.5	2.3	4.2
3	Adam Wainwright	0.0111	0.0029	6.6	3.0	3.7
4	Homer Bailey	0.0113	0.0053	4.1	0.6	3.4
5	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0033	0.0065	3.8	0.4	3.4
6	Esmil Rogers	0.0129	0.0046	4.2	0.8	3.4
7	Dallas Keuchel	0.0030	0.0104	5.8	3.0	2.9
8	Zach McAllister	0.0026	0.0073	3.4	0.7	2.7
9	Jason Vargas	0.0035	0.0064	2.7	0.2	2.4
10	Bud Norris	0.0043	0.0093	4.8	2.5	2.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Héctor Rondón	0.0061	0.0061	1.5	0.0	1.4
2	Justin Verlander	0.0000	0.0066	0.5	0.5	0.0
3	Jeff Samardzija	0.0000	0.0102	3.8	3.8	0.0
4	C.J. Wilson	0.0000	0.0065	0.4	0.4	0.0
5	Mat Latos	0.0000	0.0114	4.8	4.8	0.0
6	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0000	0.0065	0.4	0.4	0.0
7	Patrick Corbin	0.0000	0.0083	2.0	2.0	0.0
8	Eric Stults	0.0000	0.0105	3.8	3.8	0.0
9	Lance Lynn	0.0000	0.0162	8.7	8.7	0.0
10	Yu Darvish	0.0000	0.0089	2.4	2.4	0.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	José Fernández	0.0061	0.0048	4.9	0.9	4.0
2	Nick Tepesch	0.0061	0.0000	4.9	2.5	2.4
3	Alex Wood	0.0061	0.0000	3.9	2.0	1.9
4	Alfredo Figaro	0.0061	0.0043	2.4	0.5	1.9
5	Sonny Gray	0.0061	0.0000	3.1	1.6	1.5
6	André Rienzo	0.0061	0.0000	3.0	1.5	1.5
7	Seth Maness	0.0061	0.0000	3.0	1.5	1.5
8	Andrew Albers	0.0061	0.0000	3.0	1.5	1.5
9	Taylor Jordan	0.0061	0.0057	1.4	0.1	1.3
10	Preston Claiborne	0.0061	0.0067	1.1	0.1	1.0

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Clay Buchholz	0.0553	0.1174 (24.2)	0.1134 (23.4)	0.1220 (26.6)	0.1128 (22.0)
Travis Wood	0.0889	0.1202 (22.4)	0.1190 (23.3)	0.1186 (22.1)	0.1217 (23.1)
CC Sabathia	0.1344	0.1034 (31.7)	0.1005 (32.3)	0.1055 (28.7)	0.1013 (34.3)
Ian Kennedy	0.1360	0.1062 (26.8)	0.1032 (27.4)	0.1093 (23.4)	0.1031 (29.8)
Lucas Harrell	0.1570	0.1267 (24.2)	0.1131 (32.2)	0.1285 (22.1)	0.1248 (26.0)
José Fernández	0.0690	0.1072 (23.3)	0.1096 (26.4)	0.1072 (24.1)	0.1096 (24.4)
Aníbal Sánchez	0.0751	0.1154 (27.2)	0.1105 (25.2)	0.1152 (27.8)	0.1157 (26.8)
Edinson Volquez	0.1467	0.1114 (30.5)	0.1186 (23.2)	0.1151 (26.8)	0.1078 (33.9)
Ryan Vogelsong	0.1563	0.1081 (24.4)	0.0965 (28.8)	0.1148 (20.7)	0.1014 (27.8)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Edwin Jackson	0.1105	0.1416	27.2
2	Joe Blanton	0.1193	0.1571	25.5
3	Bartolo Colon	0.1147	0.0780	25.2
4	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.1124	0.0797	24.9
5	Matt Harvey	0.1061	0.0667	24.5
6	Josh Johnson	0.1098	0.1667	23.3
7	Jeremy Hellickson	0.1127	0.1398	22.8
8	Barry Zito	0.1218	0.1546	22.4
9	Ervin Santana	0.1281	0.0990	21.6
10	Iván Nova	0.1236	0.0836	21.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jeremy Hellickson	0.0936	0.1398	35.3
2	Francisco Liriano	0.1268	0.0811	29.3
3	Josh Johnson	0.0970	0.1667	27.4
4	R.A. Dickey	0.0935	0.1198	26.5
5	John Lackey	0.1364	0.1028	24.7
6	Wade Davis	0.1059	0.1440	24.6
7	Scott Diamond	0.1123	0.1528	24.3
8	Wily Peralta	0.1051	0.1334	24.1
9	Barry Zito	0.1176	0.1546	23.6
10	Yu Darvish	0.1103	0.0809	23.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.1177	0.0797	30.5
2	Joe Blanton	0.1131	0.1571	28.6
3	Matt Harvey	0.1092	0.0667	27.4
4	Clayton Kershaw	0.0935	0.0606	27.3
5	Bartolo Colon	0.1148	0.0780	26.1
6	Edwin Jackson	0.1131	0.1416	24.3
7	Jose Quintana	0.1297	0.0998	22.6
8	Julio Teheran	0.1203	0.0891	21.9
9	Dan Haren	0.1021	0.1283	20.8
10	Dylan Axelrod	0.1194	0.1519	20.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Edwin Jackson	0.1079	0.1416	29.8
2	Jeremy Hellickson	0.1043	0.1398	29.6
3	Josh Johnson	0.1019	0.1667	26.7
4	Ervin Santana	0.1346	0.0990	26.6
5	Barry Zito	0.1170	0.1546	25.7
6	Bartolo Colon	0.1146	0.0780	24.5
7	Joe Saunders	0.1179	0.1427	24.2
8	Iván Nova	0.1285	0.0836	23.6
9	Matt Cain	0.0858	0.1118	23.3
10	Joe Blanton	0.1255	0.1571	22.2

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	R.A. Dickey	0.0935	0.1129	0.1198	26.5	10.2	16.3
2	Francisco Liriano	0.1268	0.1052	0.0811	29.3	13.4	15.8
3	Yu Darvish	0.1103	0.0960	0.0809	23.3	9.4	13.9
4	Tyson Ross	0.1307	0.1070	0.1012	14.0	0.9	13.0
5	Jeremy Hellickson	0.0936	0.1127	0.1398	35.3	22.8	12.5
6	Zack Greinke	0.1080	0.0931	0.0753	22.2	9.9	12.3
7	Brad Peacock	0.1070	0.1387	0.1397	12.6	1.8	10.8
8	Paul Clemens	0.1096	0.1445	0.1486	13.2	2.6	10.6
9	Wily Peralta	0.1051	0.1204	0.1334	24.1	13.6	10.5
10	Scott Feldman	0.1340	0.1148	0.1148	13.3	3.0	10.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Clayton Kershaw	0.0935	0.0837	0.0606	27.3	17.4	9.9
2	Kyle Lohse	0.1202	0.1114	0.0968	16.6	8.6	8.0
3	C.J. Wilson	0.1142	0.1048	0.1019	8.6	0.9	7.7
4	Jered Weaver	0.1092	0.0985	0.0915	9.4	1.9	7.5
5	Félix Hernández	0.1014	0.0937	0.0899	7.2	0.1	7.1
6	Wade Miley	0.1209	0.1140	0.1039	12.0	5.2	6.8
7	Jose Quintana	0.1297	0.1232	0.0998	22.6	16.2	6.4
8	Mark Buehrle	0.1332	0.1272	0.1142	14.3	7.9	6.3
9	Jordan Zimmermann	0.1084	0.1023	0.0936	10.3	4.0	6.3
10	Mat Latos	0.1097	0.1039	0.0931	12.1	6.1	6.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	C.J. Wilson	0.0954	0.1048	0.1019	10.2	0.9	9.3
2	Nick Tepesch	0.1096	0.1305	0.1302	10.3	1.5	8.8
3	Matt Cain	0.0858	0.0953	0.1118	23.3	15.6	7.8
4	Gio Gonzalez	0.0850	0.0935	0.0965	13.2	5.7	7.6
5	Félix Hernández	0.0861	0.0937	0.0899	7.0	0.1	6.9
6	Jeremy Hellickson	0.1043	0.1127	0.1398	29.6	22.8	6.8
7	Todd Redmond	0.1635	0.1419	0.1173	13.4	6.7	6.8
8	Jarrod Parker	0.1035	0.1108	0.1125	11.2	4.6	6.6
9	Corey Kluber	0.1379	0.1266	0.1102	14.0	7.6	6.4
10	André Rienzo	0.1096	0.1341	0.1360	7.8	1.5	6.3

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
CC Sabathia	0.1233	0.0954 (28.9)	0.0886 (32.3)	0.0964 (26.4)	0.0943 (31.1)
Ian Kennedy	0.1247	0.0987 (23.7)	0.0968 (22.8)	0.1013 (20.3)	0.0962 (26.8)
Roy Halladay	0.1667	0.0923 (22.1)	0.0913 (21.5)	0.0933 (21.3)	0.0913 (22.7)
José Fernández	0.0617	0.0984 (22.4)	0.1014 (26.5)	0.0984 (23.6)	0.1014 (23.5)
Aníbal Sánchez	0.0697	0.1072 (25.1)	0.0999 (21.9)	0.1063 (25.7)	0.1082 (24.8)
Edinson Volquez	0.1390	0.1030 (31.0)	0.1116 (22.0)	0.1054 (27.7)	0.1006 (33.9)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jeremy Hellickson	0.1049	0.1357	25.5
2	Joe Blanton	0.1103	0.1457	23.9
3	Bartolo Colon	0.1064	0.0728	22.8
4	Clay Buchholz	0.1088	0.0505	22.7
5	Ervin Santana	0.1193	0.0896	22.1
6	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.1039	0.0751	21.6
7	Ryan Vogelsong	0.1001	0.1413	21.1
8	Edwin Jackson	0.1021	0.1248	20.6
9	Dan Haren	0.0981	0.1227	20.5
10	Tyler Chatwood	0.1283	0.0819	20.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jeremy Hellickson	0.0865	0.1357	36.9
2	Lucas Harrell	0.1011	0.1414	29.2
3	R.A. Dickey	0.0845	0.1113	26.1
4	Francisco Liriano	0.1205	0.0811	25.7
5	Ryan Vogelsong	0.0879	0.1413	25.3
6	Aaron Harang	0.0992	0.1374	24.5
7	John Lackey	0.1273	0.0951	24.4
8	Brandon Maurer	0.1014	0.1567	22.6
9	Clay Buchholz	0.1047	0.0505	22.2
10	Joe Saunders	0.1047	0.1305	21.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Clayton Kershaw	0.0851	0.0529	27.4
2	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.1079	0.0751	26.7
3	Joe Blanton	0.1042	0.1457	26.6
4	Clay Buchholz	0.1125	0.0505	24.9
5	Bartolo Colon	0.1056	0.0728	23.6
6	Matt Harvey	0.1006	0.0652	23.0
7	Dan Haren	0.0933	0.1227	22.6
8	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.1146	0.0862	20.4
9	Travis Wood	0.1108	0.0840	20.2
10	Jose Quintana	0.1201	0.0938	20.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jeremy Hellickson	0.0973	0.1357	32.1
2	Ervin Santana	0.1258	0.0896	26.5
3	Matt Cain	0.0801	0.1079	25.1
4	Ryan Vogelsong	0.0944	0.1413	24.4
5	Edwin Jackson	0.1005	0.1248	23.0
6	Aaron Harang	0.1066	0.1374	22.6
7	Bartolo Colon	0.1072	0.0728	22.4
8	Barry Zito	0.1087	0.1398	22.1
9	Lucas Harrell	0.1162	0.1414	21.5
10	Joe Saunders	0.1096	0.1305	21.5

Most Unique Misses for Earned Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Francisco Liriano	0.1205	0.0975	0.0811	25.7	8.4	17.3
2	R.A. Dickey	0.0845	0.1047	0.1113	26.1	9.9	16.2
3	Yu Darvish	0.1028	0.0886	0.0785	19.8	5.3	14.4
4	Tyson Ross	0.1227	0.0983	0.0873	17.4	3.6	13.8
5	Scott Feldman	0.1216	0.1058	0.1029	13.6	0.7	12.9
6	Zack Greinke	0.1001	0.0855	0.0725	19.2	6.6	12.6
7	Jeremy Hellickson	0.0865	0.1049	0.1357	36.9	25.5	11.4
8	Brad Peacock	0.0977	0.1295	0.1315	12.7	2.1	10.5
9	Andrew Cashner	0.1053	0.0936	0.0849	13.8	3.5	10.3
10	Paul Clemens	0.1014	0.1347	0.1362	11.5	1.7	9.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Clayton Kershaw	0.0851	0.0773	0.0529	27.4	18.7	8.7
2	C.J. Wilson	0.1047	0.0970	0.0876	13.6	5.1	8.6
3	Kyle Lohse	0.1113	0.1034	0.0918	14.0	6.2	7.8
4	Jered Weaver	0.1013	0.0915	0.0883	6.9	0.4	6.5
5	Mark Buehrle	0.1241	0.1184	0.1073	12.9	6.4	6.5
6	Wade Miley	0.1117	0.1062	0.0945	12.8	6.7	6.2
7	Jeremy Guthrie	0.1208	0.1158	0.1050	12.4	6.3	6.1
8	Jose Quintana	0.1201	0.1147	0.0938	20.2	14.3	5.9
9	Jordan Zimmermann	0.0996	0.0948	0.0890	7.4	1.6	5.7
10	Mat Latos	0.1010	0.0966	0.0840	13.2	7.7	5.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Nick Tepesch	0.1014	0.1214	0.1229	10.9	2.1	8.7
2	Matt Cain	0.0801	0.0883	0.1079	25.1	17.8	7.3
3	Jered Weaver	0.0817	0.0915	0.0883	7.5	0.4	7.1
4	Gio Gonzalez	0.0791	0.0860	0.0891	12.5	5.8	6.8
5	Jeremy Hellickson	0.0973	0.1049	0.1357	32.1	25.5	6.6
6	Joe Saunders	0.1096	0.1159	0.1305	21.5	15.1	6.4
7	Todd Redmond	0.1524	0.1318	0.1142	10.7	4.5	6.2
8	Jarrod Parker	0.0965	0.1026	0.1064	12.4	6.2	6.2
9	Félix Hernández	0.0808	0.0865	0.0838	6.8	1.0	5.8
10	Jason Hammel	0.0963	0.1044	0.1260	21.4	15.6	5.8

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Clay Buchholz	0.7500	0.4061 (153.6)	0.2973 (168.7)	0.3956 (163.0)	0.4167 (146.3)
Matt Moore	0.6296	0.3956 (166.5)	0.2195 (233.0)	0.4411 (145.1)	0.3548 (188.2)
Julio Teheran	0.4667	0.2991 (149.3)	0.1429 (214.1)	0.3116 (149.0)	0.2857 (154.2)
Bartolo Colon	0.6000	0.3976 (175.1)	0.2286 (249.4)	0.3954 (186.2)	0.4000 (167.9)
Martín Pérez	0.5000	0.2283 (157.1)	0.1154 (178.5)	0.2238 (165.9)	0.2333 (150.8)
Phil Hughes	0.1333	0.3957 (152.2)	0.3333 (158.7)	0.3988 (146.4)	0.3929 (154.8)
Max Scherzer	0.6562	0.4522 (191.8)	0.3421 (223.2)	0.4838 (175.4)	0.4194 (213.4)
Jordan Zimmermann	0.5938	0.4072 (183.3)	0.2500 (256.6)	0.4306 (173.5)	0.3846 (196.8)
Francisco Liriano	0.6154	0.3436 (197.9)	0.2162 (234.4)	0.3904 (174.8)	0.3000 (222.3)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Corey Kluber	0.1503	0.4231	181.3
2	Cole Hamels	0.4646	0.2424	178.1
3	Mike Leake	0.2707	0.4516	165.2
4	Joe Blanton	0.3541	0.0714	157.2
5	Jeff Samardzija	0.4308	0.2424	149.0
6	Ian Kennedy	0.4344	0.2258	145.5
7	Stephen Strasburg	0.4760	0.2667	134.5
8	C.J. Wilson	0.3968	0.5152	131.2
9	Jeremy Guthrie	0.3360	0.4545	130.2
10	Justin Verlander	0.5457	0.3824	127.7

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Shelby Miller	0.1176	0.4839	230.4
2	Jorge De La Rosa	0.1818	0.5333	217.3
3	Kris Medlen	0.1750	0.4688	202.2
4	Adam Wainwright	0.3056	0.5588	197.0
5	Patrick Corbin	0.1765	0.4375	183.9
6	Jeremy Guthrie	0.2162	0.4545	173.0
7	Jhoulys Chacín	0.2069	0.4516	161.2
8	Chris Tillman	0.2500	0.4848	158.6
9	Aníbal Sánchez	0.2368	0.4828	148.3
10	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.2059	0.4242	148.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Corey Kluber	0.1188	0.4231	207.7
2	Joe Blanton	0.4172	0.0714	188.4
3	Cole Hamels	0.4781	0.2424	179.5
4	Mike Leake	0.2668	0.4516	178.0
5	Stephen Strasburg	0.4947	0.2667	139.4
6	Matt Cain	0.4842	0.2667	136.9
7	Jeff Locke	0.1804	0.3333	135.4
8	Chris Tillman	0.3626	0.4848	134.9
9	C.J. Wilson	0.4059	0.5152	133.9
10	Ian Kennedy	0.4313	0.2258	133.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cole Hamels	0.4516	0.2424	172.7
2	Jeff Samardzija	0.4444	0.2424	167.9
3	Gio Gonzalez	0.5625	0.3438	164.1
4	Mike Leake	0.2759	0.4516	155.5
5	Ian Kennedy	0.4375	0.2258	153.5
6	Samuel Deduno	0.1538	0.4444	142.4
7	José Fernández	0.2406	0.4286	140.5
8	Lance Lynn	0.3125	0.4545	137.3
9	Jeremy Guthrie	0.3214	0.4545	137.1
10	A.J. Griffin	0.2903	0.4375	136.2

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Kris Medlen	0.1750	0.4470	0.4688	202.2	38.6	163.6
2	Shelby Miller	0.1176	0.3693	0.4839	230.4	101.0	129.3
3	Cliff Lee	0.2500	0.4695	0.4516	135.3	6.5	128.8
4	Adam Wainwright	0.3056	0.5045	0.5588	197.0	76.1	120.9
5	Andrew Cashner	0.0968	0.3637	0.3226	126.3	11.1	115.2
6	Jorge De La Rosa	0.1818	0.4085	0.5333	217.3	107.2	110.1
7	Wily Peralta	0.1481	0.3448	0.3438	119.1	19.4	99.6
8	Doug Fister	0.2571	0.4597	0.4242	105.7	8.9	96.7
9	Jhoulys Chacín	0.2069	0.3958	0.4516	161.2	66.2	95.0
10	Jon Lester	0.2821	0.4547	0.4545	113.2	22.8	90.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chris Tillman	0.3626	0.4093	0.4848	134.9	85.2	49.7
2	Roberto Hernandez	0.1297	0.1813	0.1875	61.2	20.2	41.0
3	Tom Koehler	0.1125	0.1566	0.1724	58.5	24.7	33.8
4	Brandon Maurer	0.3522	0.2578	0.2273	35.2	2.1	33.1
5	Joe Blanton	0.4172	0.3541	0.0714	188.4	157.2	31.2
6	Jose Quintana	0.3468	0.2964	0.2727	30.5	1.4	29.1
7	Paul Clemens	0.3200	0.2180	0.1143	54.4	25.3	29.0
8	Corey Kluber	0.1188	0.1503	0.4231	207.7	181.3	26.5
9	Juan Nicasio	0.4125	0.3632	0.2903	59.6	33.4	26.2
10	Todd Redmond	0.4044	0.3129	0.2353	42.7	17.0	25.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	José Fernández	0.2406	0.4054	0.4286	140.5	33.0	107.4
2	Roberto Hernandez	0.3333	0.1813	0.1875	82.0	20.2	61.7
3	Gio Gonzalez	0.5625	0.5076	0.3438	164.1	113.5	50.7
4	Kevin Gregg	0.2406	0.0513	0.0323	51.1	1.7	49.4
5	Yu Darvish	0.5862	0.5406	0.4062	135.9	91.7	44.2
6	Preston Claiborne	0.2406	0.0464	0.0000	47.6	4.5	43.1
7	Tyson Ross	0.2069	0.0917	0.0857	51.8	9.8	42.1
8	Brett Cecil	0.2812	0.1230	0.0833	44.9	3.6	41.3
9	Alexi Ogando	0.4615	0.3744	0.3043	59.4	19.1	40.3
10	Scott Feldman	0.2400	0.2963	0.4000	135.2	97.8	37.3

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Edwin Jackson	0.5806	0.3186 (203.6)	0.2432 (222.0)	0.3040 (204.1)	0.3333 (209.8)
Max Scherzer	0.0938	0.2744 (151.0)	0.2105 (140.8)	0.2280 (123.9)	0.3226 (172.3)
John Danks	0.6364	0.3474 (168.5)	0.2800 (177.6)	0.3451 (161.7)	0.3500 (180.2)
Chris Sale	0.4667	0.2898 (153.2)	0.1200 (255.5)	0.2940 (137.4)	0.2857 (176.4)
Shaun Marcum	0.7143	0.2653 (150.0)	0.1875 (158.7)	0.3082 (131.0)	0.2222 (171.9)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.3578	0.1818	152.4
2	T.J. McFarland	0.4693	0.0263	146.6
3	Roberto Hernandez	0.1796	0.4062	145.8
4	Jeanmar Gómez	0.4350	0.0000	144.8
5	Cole Hamels	0.2728	0.4242	137.1
6	Chris Tillman	0.3693	0.2121	132.8
7	Dylan Axelrod	0.1488	0.3667	127.7
8	Alex Sanabia	0.1955	0.7000	126.6
9	Wily Peralta	0.3119	0.4688	125.8
10	Héctor Santiago	0.0802	0.2647	121.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Wily Peralta	0.1481	0.4688	215.7
2	Kris Medlen	0.0750	0.3750	203.6
3	Eric Stults	0.1290	0.3939	182.7
4	CC Sabathia	0.1714	0.4062	166.3
5	Cole Hamels	0.2105	0.4242	146.7
6	Scott Diamond	0.2368	0.5417	145.8
7	Jeff Samardzija	0.1837	0.3939	145.0
8	Lucas Harrell	0.2195	0.4722	142.1
9	Brandon McCarthy	0.2258	0.5000	128.4
10	Alex Sanabia	0.1429	0.7000	126.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Roberto Hernandez	0.0896	0.4062	194.6
2	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.3386	0.1818	147.9
3	Alex Sanabia	0.1065	0.7000	145.4
4	Dylan Axelrod	0.1046	0.3667	145.4
5	T.J. McFarland	0.4350	0.0263	139.9
6	Tim Lincecum	0.2628	0.4375	135.2
7	Jose Quintana	0.3587	0.2121	133.6
8	Tom Koehler	0.1099	0.3448	132.8
9	Jeanmar Gómez	0.3813	0.0000	131.6
10	Chris Tillman	0.3496	0.2121	128.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cole Hamels	0.2581	0.4242	170.9
2	Wily Peralta	0.3000	0.4688	153.6
3	Jeanmar Gómez	0.4828	0.0000	153.2
4	T.J. McFarland	0.5000	0.0263	149.3
5	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.3750	0.1818	147.6
6	Héctor Santiago	0.0667	0.2647	144.8
7	Corey Kluber	0.4483	0.1923	141.8
8	CC Sabathia	0.2759	0.4062	139.0
9	Bartolo Colon	0.4000	0.2000	136.3
10	Bruce Chen	0.4074	0.1176	133.0

Most Unique Misses for Loss Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Eric Stults	0.1290	0.3074	0.3939	182.7	74.2	108.6
2	Kris Medlen	0.0750	0.2581	0.3750	203.6	95.9	107.7
3	A.J. Griffin	0.1212	0.3004	0.3125	114.9	10.0	104.9
4	Chris Sale	0.1200	0.2898	0.4667	255.5	153.2	102.3
5	Wade Davis	0.1212	0.3372	0.3548	112.5	10.9	101.5
6	Wily Peralta	0.1481	0.3119	0.4688	215.7	125.8	89.9
7	Lance Lynn	0.1395	0.2883	0.3030	95.7	12.7	83.1
8	Lucas Harrell	0.2195	0.3828	0.4722	142.1	63.2	78.9
9	Jeff Samardzija	0.1837	0.3195	0.3939	145.0	68.1	76.9
10	Kevin Correia	0.2632	0.4116	0.4194	82.8	6.2	76.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jose Quintana	0.3587	0.2876	0.2121	133.6	62.8	70.8
2	Kyle Lohse	0.3952	0.3274	0.3125	77.9	12.0	66.0
3	Roberto Hernandez	0.0896	0.1796	0.4062	194.6	145.8	48.8
4	Jeff Locke	0.1368	0.2188	0.2333	58.7	10.3	48.3
5	Corey Kluber	0.1036	0.1921	0.1923	45.4	0.1	45.3
6	Tom Koehler	0.1099	0.1930	0.3448	132.8	91.3	41.5
7	Tim Lincecum	0.2628	0.3237	0.4375	135.2	95.7	39.5
8	Jerome Williams	0.1417	0.2079	0.2703	83.4	45.4	37.9
9	Mat Latos	0.2960	0.2724	0.2188	80.4	47.3	33.1
10	A.J. Burnett	0.3054	0.3601	0.3667	37.9	5.3	32.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Corey Kluber	0.4483	0.1921	0.1923	141.8	0.1	141.7
2	Jeff Locke	0.3793	0.2188	0.2333	87.6	10.3	77.3
3	Jarred Cosart	0.4783	0.1530	0.1000	87.5	13.0	74.4
4	Garrett Richards	0.2941	0.1644	0.1702	62.7	3.6	59.1
5	Ross Ohlendorf	0.3333	0.0955	0.0625	61.3	8.1	53.1
6	Ryan Pressly	0.3000	0.1101	0.0612	68.1	15.4	52.7
7	Dallas Keuchel	0.4483	0.3513	0.3226	70.2	19.6	50.7
8	Kyle Lohse	0.2593	0.3274	0.3125	61.2	12.0	49.3
9	Justin Wilson	0.3438	0.1544	0.0172	89.6	40.5	49.2
10	Cliff Lee	0.2143	0.2448	0.2581	58.2	11.7	46.6

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Edward Mujica	0.5692	0.0000 (144.5)	0.0204 (145.0)	0.0000 (144.6)	0.0000 (138.2)
Kevin Gregg	0.5323	0.0000 (142.5)	0.2105 (91.9)	0.0000 (142.6)	0.0283 (128.2)
Ernesto Frieri	0.5522	0.3571 (56.3)	0.1667 (118.4)	0.3556 (56.8)	0.0000 (153.3)
Aroldis Chapman	0.5588	0.2594 (76.6)	0.2800 (77.1)	0.2266 (85.1)	0.0000 (137.1)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Axford	0.5769	0.0000	167.4
2	Jim Henderson	0.0000	0.4590	112.8
3	Carlos Marmol	0.4959	0.0385	103.5
4	Jonathan Broxton	0.6704	0.0000	89.5
5	Joaquín Benoit	0.0331	0.3636	87.0
6	Wilton Lopez	0.2664	0.0000	86.3
7	Danny Farquhar	0.0000	0.3478	78.8
8	J.J. Putz	0.7035	0.1500	77.8
9	Bruce Rondón	0.6688	0.0333	77.8
10	Koji Uehara	0.0000	0.2877	75.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Greg Holland	0.1556	0.6912	141.6
2	Sergio Romo	0.1000	0.5846	126.1
3	Grant Balfour	0.1538	0.5846	118.1
4	Glen Perkins	0.1200	0.5902	117.6
5	Jason Grilli	0.0500	0.6111	117.3
6	John Axford	0.4151	0.0000	114.2
7	Steve Cishek	0.1333	0.4928	106.6
8	Casey Janssen	0.1556	0.6071	99.0
9	Jim Henderson	0.0800	0.4590	98.5
10	Jim Johnson	0.3673	0.6757	95.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Axford	0.5795	0.0000	168.2
2	Jim Henderson	0.0000	0.4590	112.8
3	Carlos Marmol	0.4933	0.0385	102.9
4	Wilton Lopez	0.2917	0.0000	94.4
5	Jonathan Broxton	0.6625	0.0000	88.4
6	Joaquín Benoit	0.0343	0.3636	86.7
7	J.J. Putz	0.7413	0.1500	83.1
8	Danny Farquhar	0.0000	0.3478	78.8
9	Koji Uehara	0.0000	0.2877	75.6
10	Bruce Rondón	0.6429	0.0333	74.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	Jim Johnson	0.6757	188.7
2	Craig Kimbrel	0.7353	182.6
3	Greg Holland	0.6912	169.3
4	Mariano Rivera	0.6875	169.0
5	Rafael Soriano	0.6324	167.6
6	Addison Reed	0.5882	165.5
7	Joe Nathan	0.6418	153.6
8	Fernando Rodney	0.5441	149.9
9	Grant Balfour	0.5846	146.0
10	Sergio Romo	0.5846	139.3

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Greg Holland	0.1556	0.6818	0.6912	141.6	1.8	139.9
2	Sergio Romo	0.1000	0.5567	0.5846	126.1	6.4	119.7
3	Jason Grilli	0.0500	0.6211	0.6111	117.3	2.5	114.8
4	Glen Perkins	0.1200	0.5351	0.5902	117.6	12.6	105.0
5	Casey Janssen	0.1556	0.5471	0.6071	99.0	12.1	86.9
6	Jim Johnson	0.3673	0.6243	0.6757	95.5	14.3	81.2
7	Grant Balfour	0.1538	0.4228	0.5846	118.1	41.7	76.3
8	Steve Cishek	0.1333	0.6060	0.4928	106.6	32.5	74.1
9	Rafael Soriano	0.3830	0.6406	0.6324	74.6	2.9	71.6
10	Jose Veras	0.0189	0.3611	0.3134	79.9	12.7	67.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mariano Rivera	0.9211	0.8723	0.6875	60.4	47.9	12.5
2	Greg Holland	0.6458	0.6818	0.6912	11.0	1.8	9.2
3	Aroldis Chapman	0.2266	0.2594	0.5588	85.1	76.6	8.5
4	Fernando Rodney	0.6173	0.5884	0.5441	21.9	13.6	8.3
5	Wilton Lopez	0.2917	0.2664	0.0000	94.4	86.3	8.1
6	Huston Street	0.8750	0.8431	0.5690	68.5	61.4	7.1
7	Héctor Rondón	0.0283	0.0000	0.0000	7.4	0.6	6.8
8	Chris Perez	0.7160	0.6897	0.4630	62.1	55.7	6.4
9	Jim Johnson	0.6039	0.6243	0.6757	20.2	14.3	6.0
10	Rafael Soriano	0.6615	0.6406	0.6324	8.7	2.9	5.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jim Johnson	0.6243	0.6757	188.7	14.3	174.4
2	Greg Holland	0.6818	0.6912	169.3	1.8	167.5
3	Craig Kimbrel	0.6654	0.7353	182.6	17.4	165.3
4	Rafael Soriano	0.6406	0.6324	167.6	2.9	164.6
5	Joe Nathan	0.6999	0.6418	153.6	15.1	138.5
6	Fernando Rodney	0.5884	0.5441	149.9	13.6	136.3
7	Sergio Romo	0.5567	0.5846	139.3	6.4	132.9
8	Glen Perkins	0.5351	0.5902	135.1	12.6	122.4
9	Mariano Rivera	0.8723	0.6875	169.0	47.9	121.1
10	Jason Grilli	0.6211	0.6111	117.9	2.5	115.4

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Joel Peralta	0.5125	0.0000 (134.3)	0.3137 (68.2)	0.0000 (134.3)	0.0000 (134.7)
Tommy Hunter	0.3088	0.0000 (86.6)	0.0556 (97.1)	0.0000 (86.6)	0.0000 (87.1)
Mark Melancon	0.3611	0.0000 (86.5)	0.0769 (89.3)	0.0000 (86.5)	0.0000 (86.9)
Tanner Scheppers	0.3553	0.0000 (91.8)	0.1111 (84.5)	0.0000 (91.9)	0.0000 (92.3)
Junichi Tazawa	0.3521	0.0000 (85.5)	0.1111 (78.6)	0.0000 (85.5)	0.0000 (85.9)
Drew Smyly	0.3333	0.0000 (85.5)	0.0857 (85.8)	0.0000 (85.5)	0.0000 (86.0)
Luis Avilán	0.3600	0.0000 (79.1)	0.1200 (70.6)	0.0000 (79.1)	0.0000 (79.5)
Drew Storen	0.3529	0.0000 (80.6)	0.1389 (66.7)	0.0000 (80.6)	0.0000 (81.0)
Trevor Rosenthal	0.3919	0.0000 (106.0)	0.1579 (83.9)	0.0000 (106.0)	0.0000 (106.5)
Brandon Kintzler	0.3662	0.0000 (96.1)	0.1111 (88.7)	0.0000 (96.1)	0.0000 (96.6)
Tyler Clippard	0.4583	0.0000 (112.0)	0.2692 (61.8)	0.0000 (112.0)	0.0000 (112.4)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	David Robertson	0.4714	110.1
2	Jared Burton	0.3803	92.5
3	Jake McGee	0.3803	85.6
4	Sean Doolittle	0.3714	85.2
5	Matt Belisle	0.3333	84.9
6	Ryan Cook	0.3239	80.2
7	Joe Smith	0.3571	79.3
8	Luke Gregerson	0.3425	78.1
9	Tony Watson	0.3284	77.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Sale	0.1400	0.0000	90.3
2	Yoervis Medina	0.0513	0.3016	83.2
3	Julio Teheran	0.1429	0.0000	82.9
4	Kris Medlen	0.1250	0.0000	73.2
5	Dane De La Rosa	0.0714	0.2667	67.2
6	John Axford	0.0566	0.2533	67.2
7	Andrew Cashner	0.1613	0.0323	66.0
8	Justin Wilson	0.0714	0.2586	65.8
9	Sergio Romo	0.2800	0.0000	61.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	David Robertson	0.4714	110.1
2	Jared Burton	0.3803	92.5
3	Jake McGee	0.3803	85.6
4	Sean Doolittle	0.3714	85.2
5	Matt Belisle	0.3333	85.0
6	Ryan Cook	0.3239	80.2
7	Joe Smith	0.3571	79.3
8	Luke Gregerson	0.3425	78.1
9	Tony Watson	0.3284	77.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	David Robertson	0.4714	110.5
2	Jared Burton	0.3803	92.9
3	Jake McGee	0.3803	86.0
4	Sean Doolittle	0.3714	85.6
5	Matt Belisle	0.3333	85.4
6	Ryan Cook	0.3239	80.7
7	Joe Smith	0.3571	79.7
8	Luke Gregerson	0.3425	78.5
9	Tony Watson	0.3284	78.1

Most Unique Misses for Hold Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jason Grilli	0.3500	0.0370	56.0	2.8	53.2
2	Andrew Cashner	0.1613	0.0323	66.0	13.3	52.6
3	Sergio Romo	0.2800	0.0000	61.1	12.8	48.3
4	Chris Sale	0.1400	0.0000	90.3	44.3	46.0
5	Julio Teheran	0.1429	0.0000	82.9	39.6	43.4
6	Grant Balfour	0.2308	0.0000	51.1	13.4	37.7
7	Edward Mujica	0.2653	0.0769	38.9	6.6	32.4
8	Kris Medlen	0.1250	0.0000	73.2	41.9	31.3
9	Alexi Ogando	0.1538	0.0000	50.6	21.9	28.7
10	Joaquín Benoit	0.3462	0.1364	46.1	22.6	23.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Héctor Rondón	0.0513	0.0444	14.0	1.6	12.4
2	Dallas Keuchel	0.0000	0.0645	9.2	9.1	0.0
3	Garrett Richards	0.0000	0.1064	34.3	34.3	0.0
4	Esmil Rogers	0.0000	0.0909	23.8	23.8	0.0
5	Joe Kelly	0.0000	0.0541	1.6	1.6	0.0
6	Bruce Chen	0.0000	0.0588	3.9	3.8	0.0
7	Justin Grimm	0.0000	0.1111	26.5	26.5	0.0
8	Chad Gaudin	0.0000	0.0667	6.3	6.3	0.0
9	Anthony Swarzak	0.0000	0.0625	4.4	4.4	0.0
10	Josh Collmenter	0.0000	0.1020	19.6	19.6	0.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	José Fernández	0.0513	0.0000	68.7	34.8	33.9
2	Nick Tepesch	0.0513	0.0000	41.1	20.8	20.3
3	Alex Wood	0.0513	0.0323	22.5	6.2	16.3
4	Alfredo Figaro	0.0513	0.0000	31.9	16.2	15.7
5	Kevin Gregg	0.0513	0.0000	27.2	13.8	13.4
6	Sonny Gray	0.0513	0.0000	26.3	13.3	13.0
7	André Rienzo	0.0513	0.0000	25.2	12.8	12.5
8	Andrew Albers	0.0513	0.0000	25.1	12.7	12.4
9	Taylor Jordan	0.0513	0.0000	22.2	11.2	11.0
10	Burch Smith	0.0513	0.0000	16.9	8.5	8.3

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
CC Sabathia	4.7773	3.6073 (1246.2)	3.3223 (1304.1)	3.6110 (1130.8)	3.6036 (1354.2)
Roy Halladay	6.8226	3.4455 (1009.4)	3.3586 (971.6)	3.4719 (967.2)	3.4190 (1049.4)
Lucas Harrell	5.8568	4.7095 (954.3)	3.9130 (1361.1)	4.6653 (898.4)	4.7554 (1003.4)
José Fernández	2.1892	3.7888 (951.4)	3.9309 (1198.8)	3.7888 (1035.5)	3.9309 (969.7)
Aníbal Sánchez	2.5714	4.1377 (1017.4)	3.8028 (932.5)	4.0455 (1040.6)	4.2324 (1002.1)
Edinson Volquez	5.7065	4.1055 (1401.3)	4.3970 (1002.9)	4.1272 (1288.5)	4.0830 (1508.3)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joe Blanton	4.1993	6.0377	1247.0
2	Ervin Santana	4.7215	3.2844	1060.6
3	Ian Kennedy	3.7952	4.9136	1048.8
4	Hisashi Iwakuma	3.9994	2.6631	981.8
5	Clay Buchholz	4.2812	1.7446	971.0
6	Edwin Jackson	3.9375	4.9791	966.7
7	Jeremy Hellickson	4.0791	5.1724	955.0
8	Matt Harvey	3.8557	2.2710	953.7
9	Ryan Vogelsong	3.9001	5.7299	949.1
10	Josh Johnson	3.9339	6.1967	946.7

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jeremy Hellickson	3.2466	5.1724	1405.6
2	John Lackey	5.0670	3.5176	1220.0
3	Francisco Liriano	4.7079	3.0186	1137.5
4	Ryan Vogelsong	3.3155	5.7299	1118.8
5	Josh Johnson	3.3952	6.1967	1068.6
6	Joe Saunders	3.9880	5.2623	1029.6
7	R.A. Dickey	3.1148	4.2062	1011.6
8	Ian Kennedy	3.6695	4.9136	973.0
9	Ubaldo Jiménez	4.5215	3.3011	962.8
10	Aaron Harang	3.8532	5.4000	956.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joe Blanton	3.9161	6.0377	1344.6
2	Hisashi Iwakuma	4.1396	2.6631	1210.1
3	Clayton Kershaw	3.1608	1.8305	1136.1
4	Matt Harvey	3.9077	2.2710	1074.7
5	Clay Buchholz	4.3976	1.7446	1070.7
6	Bartolo Colon	3.9937	2.6480	974.0
7	Jhoulys Chacín	4.7122	3.4662	952.2
8	Travis Wood	4.3387	3.1050	947.9
9	Jose Quintana	4.7236	3.5100	943.9
10	Dan Haren	3.4721	4.6680	914.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jeremy Hellickson	3.7792	5.1724	1260.9
2	Ervin Santana	5.0477	3.2844	1241.8
3	Ian Kennedy	3.7109	4.9136	1207.2
4	Joe Blanton	4.4896	6.0377	1140.0
5	Ryan Vogelsong	3.6836	5.7299	1104.0
6	John Lackey	5.2441	3.5176	1096.0
7	Josh Johnson	3.6846	6.1967	1086.7
8	Scott Kazmir	5.9785	4.0443	1086.2
9	Edwin Jackson	3.9047	4.9791	1081.7
10	Barry Zito	4.3110	5.7375	1060.5

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Francisco Liriano	4.7079	3.8012	3.0186	1137.5	386.3	751.1
2	Yu Darvish	3.9429	3.3799	2.8331	949.0	289.5	659.5
3	R.A. Dickey	3.1148	4.0183	4.2062	1011.6	368.2	643.4
4	Scott Feldman	4.7284	4.1041	3.8642	669.2	28.3	640.9
5	Tyson Ross	4.8308	3.9111	3.1680	847.5	272.5	575.0
6	Zack Greinke	3.7418	3.1800	2.6341	807.6	246.2	561.4
7	Wily Peralta	3.6917	4.5715	4.3691	528.3	0.1	528.2
8	Brad Peacock	3.7278	5.3608	5.1840	524.7	9.4	515.3
9	Andrew Cashner	4.0374	3.5947	3.0857	686.0	216.7	469.3
10	Paul Clemens	3.9309	5.5657	5.4000	468.5	11.9	456.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Clayton Kershaw	3.1608	2.8577	1.8305	1136.1	748.8	387.3
2	Kyle Lohse	4.2701	3.9473	3.3523	675.9	316.3	359.6
3	C.J. Wilson	4.0356	3.7655	3.3909	516.4	157.1	359.3
4	Mark Buehrle	4.8264	4.6056	4.1538	519.8	218.4	301.5
5	Wade Miley	4.3312	4.1155	3.5526	592.5	305.3	287.2
6	Jeremy Guthrie	4.7743	4.5867	4.0394	593.5	312.1	281.4
7	Mat Latos	3.8346	3.6499	3.1614	523.4	252.0	271.4
8	Jered Weaver	3.8174	3.4118	3.2657	299.6	35.7	263.9
9	Jordan Zimmermann	3.7758	3.5974	3.2484	387.7	126.7	261.0
10	Félix Hernández	3.4386	3.2377	3.0392	263.6	3.3	260.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Nick Tepesch	3.9309	4.8193	4.8387	498.8	90.3	408.5
2	Matt Cain	2.9900	3.3241	4.0036	1011.8	670.3	341.5
3	Corey Kluber	5.4105	4.7471	3.8484	756.5	423.2	333.3
4	Jered Weaver	3.0148	3.4118	3.2657	360.5	35.7	324.8
5	Jeremy Hellickson	3.7792	4.0791	5.1724	1260.9	955.0	305.9
6	Todd Redmond	6.3670	5.3089	4.3247	558.8	253.3	305.5
7	Gio Gonzalez	3.0150	3.2689	3.3578	540.9	238.6	302.3
8	André Rienzo	3.9309	5.0458	4.8214	302.1	5.5	296.6
9	Jeff Samardzija	3.6213	3.8244	4.3385	946.0	655.0	290.9
10	Joe Saunders	4.3169	4.5491	5.2623	1035.7	750.9	284.8

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Barry Zito	1.7025	1.4083 (199.9)	1.3687 (195.6)	1.4386 (169.7)	1.3780 (229.1)
Justin Verlander	1.3145	1.1294 (203.1)	1.0751 (210.2)	1.1564 (160.5)	1.1026 (244.4)
John Lackey	1.1567	1.4448 (197.3)	1.4611 (246.3)	1.3811 (162.6)	1.5118 (235.6)
Joe Saunders	1.6011	1.3779 (211.3)	1.3413 (203.1)	1.3956 (181.0)	1.3600 (240.5)
Wade Davis	1.6773	1.3909 (198.4)	1.3034 (223.6)	1.4052 (177.7)	1.3764 (218.3)
Lucas Harrell	1.7050	1.4959 (172.2)	1.3822 (219.6)	1.4727 (175.0)	1.5199 (167.8)
José Fernández	0.9788	1.2969 (193.1)	1.3123 (235.4)	1.2969 (206.2)	1.3123 (191.6)
Max Scherzer	0.9705	1.2259 (184.7)	1.3041 (289.0)	1.1787 (161.3)	1.2748 (210.7)
Joe Blanton	1.6131	1.2435 (246.9)	1.3136 (175.6)	1.2213 (248.7)	1.2663 (243.8)
Matt Harvey	0.9308	1.3282 (250.4)	1.2446 (224.8)	1.3216 (259.1)	1.3350 (242.8)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hisashi Iwakuma	1.2820	1.0061	209.1
2	Chris Archer	1.5222	1.1269	189.4
3	Ervin Santana	1.3891	1.1422	182.5
4	CC Sabathia	1.2069	1.3697	179.1
5	Scott Kazmir	1.6102	1.3228	170.0
6	Alex Torres	1.6375	0.8966	159.6
7	Dylan Axelrod	1.4272	1.6597	156.5
8	Edwin Jackson	1.2940	1.4601	155.9
9	Josh Johnson	1.2926	1.6598	154.3
10	Ian Kennedy	1.2376	1.3952	152.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hisashi Iwakuma	1.2903	1.0061	256.6
2	Yu Darvish	1.2952	1.0731	197.0
3	Tyson Ross	1.5053	1.1520	184.1
4	Clayton Kershaw	1.0797	0.9153	160.3
5	Josh Johnson	1.2307	1.6598	160.2
6	Adam Wainwright	1.2223	1.0676	159.5
7	Mike Minor	1.2710	1.0896	158.7
8	Scott Feldman	1.3802	1.1835	158.3
9	Justin Masterson	1.3860	1.2021	157.4
10	Dylan Axelrod	1.3947	1.6597	148.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hisashi Iwakuma	1.3166	1.0061	255.7
2	Clayton Kershaw	1.1451	0.9153	194.8
3	Dylan Axelrod	1.3443	1.6597	193.8
4	Ervin Santana	1.3709	1.1422	183.3
5	Chris Archer	1.4863	1.1269	180.6
6	Edinson Volquez	1.3874	1.5851	165.6
7	CC Sabathia	1.2028	1.3697	165.4
8	Jose Quintana	1.4285	1.2200	160.7
9	Jhoulys Chacín	1.4650	1.2618	153.3
10	Vance Worley	1.3692	1.9932	149.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Scott Kazmir	1.6876	1.3228	210.0
2	Chris Archer	1.5595	1.1269	199.6
3	Alex Torres	1.8257	0.8966	198.2
4	CC Sabathia	1.2111	1.3697	191.5
5	Ervin Santana	1.4077	1.1422	183.2
6	Corey Kluber	1.6160	1.2624	183.2
7	Josh Johnson	1.2617	1.6598	172.9
8	Ian Kennedy	1.2320	1.3952	171.1
9	Neal Cotts	1.7668	0.9474	171.1
10	Justin Wilson	1.6777	1.0588	167.1

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Max Scherzer	1.3041	1.2259	0.9705	289.0	184.7	104.4
2	Stephen Strasburg	1.1821	1.0747	1.0492	106.0	6.6	99.5
3	Yu Darvish	1.2952	1.2274	1.0731	197.0	100.8	96.2
4	Johnny Hellweg	1.3123	1.9125	2.1522	134.1	44.4	89.7
5	Francisco Liriano	1.4062	1.3217	1.2236	129.7	42.4	87.3
6	Scott Feldman	1.3802	1.3124	1.1835	158.3	71.5	86.8
7	Zack Greinke	1.2309	1.1359	1.1144	92.1	9.4	82.8
8	Ricky Nolasco	1.3543	1.3023	1.2090	131.2	49.0	82.2
9	Rick Porcello	1.4378	1.3742	1.2825	123.2	42.1	81.1
10	Hyun Jin Ryu	1.3123	1.2593	1.2031	95.0	17.0	78.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chris Tillman	1.4026	1.3560	1.2213	140.2	84.7	55.6
2	Clayton Kershaw	1.1451	1.1046	0.9153	194.8	140.6	54.2
3	Kyle Lohse	1.2879	1.2454	1.1678	84.4	34.7	49.7
4	Hisashi Iwakuma	1.3166	1.2820	1.0061	255.7	209.1	46.6
5	Justin Grimm	1.3805	1.4989	1.5714	91.2	47.3	43.9
6	Erik Bedard	1.3535	1.4360	1.4834	96.3	54.3	42.0
7	Jeff Locke	1.3061	1.3811	1.3828	65.4	25.7	39.7
8	Dylan Axelrod	1.3443	1.4272	1.6597	193.8	156.5	37.3
9	Tim Hudson	1.3483	1.3018	1.1878	77.5	42.4	35.1
10	Félix Hernández	1.1901	1.1624	1.1305	36.4	2.2	34.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Corey Kluber	1.6160	1.4811	1.2624	183.2	111.9	71.3
2	Jeff Samardzija	1.2249	1.2774	1.3479	160.2	96.0	64.3
3	Garrett Richards	1.6204	1.5138	1.3448	138.4	83.4	55.0
4	Matt Cain	1.1106	1.1625	1.1555	73.9	20.9	52.9
5	Jered Weaver	1.0837	1.1486	1.1404	69.1	16.6	52.4
6	Tyson Ross	1.5278	1.4102	1.1520	163.0	112.7	50.3
7	Mat Latos	1.1657	1.2046	1.2104	85.4	35.6	49.9
8	Brad Peacock	1.7419	1.5884	1.3800	113.0	63.5	49.5
9	André Rienzo	1.3123	1.5425	1.4821	55.5	6.5	49.1
10	Shelby Miller	1.4846	1.3998	1.2058	163.5	115.2	48.3