2014 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2014, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 David Peralta 1 348 347.0
2 Charlie Blackmon 337 648 310.9
3 Wil Myers 642 361 280.8
4 Sam Fuld 136 402 265.8
5 Derek Jeter 369 634 265.4
6 Yangervis Solarte 284 535 251.0
7 Dee Strange-Gordon 402 650 247.6
8 Chris Coghlan 185 432 247.0
9 Adam Lind 558 318 240.0
10 Casey McGehee 453 691 238.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 100 622 522.0
2 Casey McGehee 233 691 458.0
3 Yangervis Solarte 100 535 435.0
4 Billy Hamilton 217 611 394.0
5 Nick Castellanos 218 579 361.0
6 Xander Bogaerts 234 594 360.0
7 Dee Strange-Gordon 291 650 359.0
8 Ender Inciarte 100 447 347.0
9 Derek Jeter 300 634 334.0
10 Danny Santana 100 430 330.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yangervis Solarte 1 535 534.0
2 Charlie Blackmon 177 648 470.9
3 Ender Inciarte 1 447 446.0
4 Chris Coghlan 1 432 431.0
5 Rougned Odor 1 417 416.0
6 J.D. Martinez 69 480 410.8
7 Brock Holt 112 492 380.0
8 Dee Strange-Gordon 276 650 374.1
9 Sam Fuld 34 402 368.5
10 Kevin Kiermaier 1 364 363.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Manny Machado 684 354 330.0
2 Derek Jeter 325 634 309.0
3 Chris Owings 639 332 307.0
4 Wil Myers 659 361 298.0
5 Mark Trumbo 632 362 270.0
6 George Springer 607 345 262.0
7 Brad Miller 671 411 260.0
8 Ryan Howard 393 648 255.0
9 David Peralta 100 348 248.0
10 Josh Rutledge 587 342 245.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Abreu 100 541 622 522.0 81.0 441.0
2 Billy Hamilton 217 576 611 394.0 34.8 359.2
3 Nick Castellanos 218 591 579 361.0 11.6 349.4
4 Xander Bogaerts 234 565 594 360.0 28.8 331.2
5 Danny Santana 100 358 430 330.0 71.5 258.5
6 Jon Singleton 100 335 362 262.0 26.7 235.3
7 Christian Yelich 349 571 660 311.0 88.8 222.2
8 George Springer 100 369 345 245.0 24.1 220.9
9 Casey McGehee 233 453 691 458.0 238.3 219.7
10 Gregory Polanco 100 327 312 212.0 15.2 196.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yangervis Solarte 1 284 535 534.0 251.0 283.0
2 Ender Inciarte 1 282 447 446.0 165.0 281.0
3 Rougned Odor 1 282 417 416.0 135.0 281.0
4 Arismendy Alcántara 1 265 300 299.0 35.0 264.0
5 James Jones 1 246 328 327.0 81.5 245.5
6 Kevin Kiermaier 1 245 364 363.0 119.0 244.0
7 Danny Santana 118 358 430 312.0 71.5 240.5
8 J.D. Martinez 69 287 480 410.8 192.9 217.9
9 Juan Lagares 160 362 452 292.5 90.2 202.2
10 Brock Holt 112 312 492 380.0 179.5 200.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 George Springer 607 369 345 262.0 24.1 237.9
2 Gregory Polanco 553 327 312 241.0 15.2 225.8
3 Arismendy Alcántara 529 265 300 229.0 35.0 194.0
4 Brandon Barnes 516 363 313 203.0 49.6 153.4
5 Josh Rutledge 587 446 342 245.0 104.0 141.0
6 Chris Owings 639 508 332 307.0 176.2 130.8
7 Danny Espinosa 586 458 364 222.0 93.6 128.4
8 Marwin Gonzalez 419 310 310 109.0 0.1 108.9
9 Manny Machado 684 577 354 330.0 223.4 106.6
10 Scooter Gennett 626 520 474 152.0 45.6 106.4

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mike Zunino 0.0775
0.0445
(17.0)
0.0381
(20.2)
0.0457
(16.3)
0.0433
(17.8)
Lucas Duda 0.0783
0.0526
(17.0)
0.0496
(19.0)
0.0496
(18.6)
0.0557
(15.4)
Steve Pearce 0.0798
0.0444
(14.7)
0.0352
(18.3)
0.0419
(15.5)
0.0470
(13.8)
Corey Dickerson 0.0708
0.0430
(14.6)
0.0351
(18.6)
0.0416
(15.1)
0.0446
(14.1)
Victor Martinez 0.0610
0.0282
(22.8)
0.0261
(24.3)
0.0284
(22.5)
0.0280
(23.2)
Jason Heyward 0.0230
0.0564
(19.8)
0.0496
(15.2)
0.0572
(20.6)
0.0556
(19.0)
Casey McGehee 0.0077
0.0338
(16.1)
0.0353
(16.9)
0.0328
(15.6)
0.0348
(16.5)
Miguel Cabrera 0.0495
0.0795
(18.6)
0.0769
(16.6)
0.0777
(17.6)
0.0814
(19.6)
Devin Mesoraco 0.0880
0.0442
(20.5)
0.0372
(23.8)
0.0424
(21.2)
0.0461
(19.9)
J.D. Martinez 0.0717
0.0332
(19.8)
0.0352
(19.0)
0.0351
(18.7)
0.0312
(21.0)
Mike Trout 0.0841
0.0596
(19.3)
0.0583
(20.4)
0.0578
(20.3)
0.0614
(18.3)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Dozier 0.0268 0.0479 16.9
2 Marlon Byrd 0.0385 0.0611 16.2
3 David Wright 0.0487 0.0187 15.9
4 Domonic Brown 0.0581 0.0259 15.0
5 George Springer 0.0696 0.1093 14.7
6 Brett Gardner 0.0186 0.0386 14.5
7 Evan Longoria 0.0673 0.0439 14.4
8 Chris Carter 0.0907 0.1125 14.1
9 Matt Adams 0.0633 0.0357 14.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.0364 0.0839 31.5
2 George Springer 0.0364 0.1093 26.2
3 Marcell Ozuna 0.0230 0.0567 22.5
4 Anthony Rizzo 0.0456 0.0777 21.7
5 Chris Carter 0.0819 0.1125 19.3
6 Curtis Granderson 0.0792 0.0467 19.2
7 Evan Longoria 0.0687 0.0439 15.1
8 Robinson Canó 0.0518 0.0264 14.8
9 Nelson Cruz 0.0653 0.0837 14.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Dozier 0.0275 0.0479 16.2
2 George Springer 0.0655 0.1093 16.0
3 Marlon Byrd 0.0388 0.0611 15.8
4 Chris Carter 0.0875 0.1125 15.7
5 David Wright 0.0475 0.0187 15.4
6 Evan Longoria 0.0682 0.0439 15.3
7 Marcell Ozuna 0.0347 0.0567 15.0
8 David Ortiz 0.0602 0.0816 14.4
9 Ian Desmond 0.0387 0.0581 14.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Domonic Brown 0.0645 0.0259 18.1
2 Brian Dozier 0.0261 0.0479 17.7
3 Marlon Byrd 0.0382 0.0611 16.7
4 David Wright 0.0500 0.0187 16.4
5 Matt Adams 0.0656 0.0357 15.0
6 Brett Gardner 0.0183 0.0386 15.0
7 Nelson Cruz 0.0660 0.0837 14.2
8 Michael Brantley 0.0180 0.0357 14.1
9 Josh Donaldson 0.0432 0.0602 14.1

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Abreu 0.0364 0.0807 0.0839 31.5 3.8 27.7
2 George Springer 0.0364 0.0696 0.1093 26.2 14.7 11.6
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0863 0.1023 0.0997 10.6 0.2 10.4
4 Anthony Rizzo 0.0456 0.0620 0.0777 21.7 11.4 10.3
5 Marcell Ozuna 0.0230 0.0387 0.0567 22.5 12.7 9.8
6 Billy Hamilton 0.0323 0.0141 0.0131 9.8 1.1 8.7
7 Curtis Granderson 0.0792 0.0658 0.0467 19.2 10.6 8.5
8 Ender Inciarte 0.0364 0.0098 0.0108 10.0 1.7 8.3
9 Brandon Moss 0.0855 0.0744 0.0714 6.3 0.1 6.3
10 Tommy La Stella 0.0364 0.0190 0.0035 10.7 4.5 6.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 David Ortiz 0.0602 0.0672 0.0816 14.4 10.4 4.0
2 Justin Morneau 0.0543 0.0489 0.0378 7.7 4.5 3.2
3 Yasiel Puig 0.0605 0.0560 0.0366 13.7 10.6 3.1
4 Brandon Moss 0.0689 0.0744 0.0714 2.9 0.1 2.9
5 Jonathan Schoop 0.0315 0.0377 0.0473 8.8 6.0 2.8
6 Jon Singleton 0.0432 0.0499 0.0734 11.9 9.5 2.3
7 Jason Castro 0.0405 0.0453 0.0440 3.1 0.8 2.3
8 Marcell Ozuna 0.0347 0.0387 0.0567 15.0 12.7 2.3
9 Lonnie Chisenhall 0.0453 0.0418 0.0336 4.9 2.9 2.0
10 Albert Pujols 0.0620 0.0594 0.0490 7.3 5.3 2.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Abreu 0.0690 0.0807 0.0839 11.3 3.8 7.5
2 Chris Davis 0.1139 0.1061 0.0919 9.9 6.0 3.9
3 Christian Yelich 0.0380 0.0324 0.0200 9.8 6.3 3.5
4 Domonic Brown 0.0645 0.0581 0.0259 18.1 15.0 3.1
5 Brandon Moss 0.0800 0.0744 0.0714 3.1 0.1 3.0
6 Dexter Fowler 0.0392 0.0331 0.0244 5.9 3.0 2.9
7 Adrián González 0.0453 0.0490 0.0551 8.6 5.9 2.7
8 Adam Dunn 0.1004 0.0947 0.0803 8.6 5.9 2.7
9 Nick Castellanos 0.0370 0.0322 0.0275 3.7 1.1 2.6
10 Dayan Viciedo 0.0462 0.0501 0.0520 5.1 2.7 2.4

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Anthony Rendon 0.0983
0.0202
(59.2)
0.0297
(52.5)
0.0245
(54.9)
0.0159
(63.7)
James Jones 0.3553
0.1721
(62.9)
0.0646
(98.0)
0.1862
(57.6)
0.1574
(68.5)
Ben Revere 0.2737
0.2101
(45.3)
0.2149
(42.0)
0.1945
(53.7)
0.2252
(37.2)
Lorenzo Cain 0.2121
0.1201
(50.6)
0.1193
(50.8)
0.1091
(55.0)
0.1316
(45.9)
Denard Span 0.1685
0.1073
(46.6)
0.1060
(47.3)
0.1059
(46.2)
0.1088
(47.1)
Michael Bourn 0.0820
0.1945
(50.6)
0.2000
(53.5)
0.1843
(46.7)
0.2048
(54.5)
Jose Altuve 0.2679
0.1841
(65.4)
0.1783
(69.2)
0.1728
(71.9)
0.1954
(59.0)
Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3699
0.2959
(53.7)
0.2838
(61.4)
0.2925
(54.6)
0.2993
(53.0)
Eric Young Jr. 0.3896
0.2675
(41.3)
0.2593
(43.8)
0.2568
(44.0)
0.2783
(38.6)
Charlie Blackmon 0.1687
0.1039
(47.6)
0.0976
(51.4)
0.0942
(52.5)
0.1140
(42.5)
Mike Trout 0.0879
0.1767
(56.5)
0.1728
(54.0)
0.1536
(41.7)
0.2000
(71.3)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rougned Odor 0.1724 0.0435 50.2
2 George Springer 0.1940 0.0575 44.1
3 Todd Frazier 0.0644 0.1176 40.9
4 Jean Segura 0.2288 0.1504 38.9
5 Carl Crawford 0.1352 0.2300 38.3
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1509 0.2039 38.3
7 Carlos Gómez 0.2698 0.2024 37.8
8 Jimmy Rollins 0.1303 0.1830 37.4
9 Kolten Wong 0.1307 0.2083 37.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Hamilton 0.2593 0.4088 96.4
2 Danny Santana 0.0646 0.1818 54.0
3 Kolten Wong 0.0926 0.2083 53.7
4 Todd Frazier 0.0480 0.1176 51.4
5 Ender Inciarte 0.0646 0.1624 47.4
6 Coco Crisp 0.2214 0.1293 44.9
7 Carl Crawford 0.1300 0.2300 40.1
8 Carlos Gómez 0.2727 0.2024 40.0
9 Rajai Davis 0.3878 0.3000 39.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rougned Odor 0.1810 0.0435 54.6
2 Billy Hamilton 0.4972 0.4088 50.0
3 George Springer 0.1965 0.0575 45.7
4 Todd Frazier 0.0552 0.1176 45.5
5 Carl Crawford 0.1199 0.2300 43.1
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1422 0.2039 42.3
7 Jimmy Rollins 0.1233 0.1830 40.4
8 Kolten Wong 0.1248 0.2083 39.0
9 Yasiel Puig 0.1272 0.0604 38.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Gómez 0.3019 0.2024 57.1
2 Rougned Odor 0.1641 0.0435 45.7
3 Jean Segura 0.2431 0.1504 45.6
4 Rajai Davis 0.4021 0.3000 45.0
5 George Springer 0.1915 0.0575 42.5
6 Ender Inciarte 0.2624 0.1624 39.8
7 Coco Crisp 0.2109 0.1293 37.9
8 Austin Jackson 0.0769 0.1235 37.7
9 Will Venable 0.1981 0.1048 36.9

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Billy Hamilton 0.2593 0.4628 0.4088 96.4 27.8 68.6
2 Danny Santana 0.0646 0.1525 0.1818 54.0 16.3 37.6
3 James Jones 0.0646 0.1721 0.3553 98.0 62.9 35.1
4 Gregory Polanco 0.0646 0.2163 0.1772 37.7 9.5 28.2
5 Josh Harrison 0.0968 0.1501 0.1364 26.3 2.8 23.5
6 Arismendy Alcántara 0.0646 0.1850 0.1509 28.4 7.6 20.8
7 Yangervis Solarte 0.0646 0.0265 0.0000 30.1 9.5 20.6
8 Ender Inciarte 0.0646 0.2341 0.1624 47.4 28.2 19.2
9 José Abreu 0.0646 0.0359 0.0182 23.7 5.6 18.1
10 Coco Crisp 0.2214 0.1886 0.1293 44.9 27.2 17.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Billy Hamilton 0.4972 0.4628 0.4088 50.0 27.8 22.3
2 José Abreu 0.0602 0.0359 0.0182 22.1 5.6 16.4
3 José Reyes 0.1465 0.1644 0.1786 25.3 15.0 10.4
4 Ian Desmond 0.1247 0.1419 0.1600 27.1 17.3 9.8
5 Corey Dickerson 0.1062 0.0883 0.0684 15.0 5.4 9.6
6 Ben Revere 0.1945 0.2101 0.2737 53.7 45.3 8.4
7 Robbie Grossman 0.1219 0.1048 0.0756 16.8 8.7 8.1
8 Tyler Flowers 0.0471 0.0311 0.0000 17.9 9.9 8.0
9 Derek Jeter 0.0513 0.0660 0.0602 9.8 1.8 8.0
10 Emilio Bonifácio 0.2232 0.2441 0.2500 14.2 6.2 8.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Gómez 0.3019 0.2698 0.2024 57.1 37.8 19.2
2 Mike Trout 0.2000 0.1767 0.0879 71.3 56.5 14.8
3 Hanley Ramirez 0.1583 0.1275 0.0993 24.7 10.0 14.6
4 B.J. Upton 0.1933 0.1696 0.1538 16.6 4.2 12.4
5 Rajai Davis 0.4021 0.3750 0.3000 45.0 32.8 12.2
6 Casey McGehee 0.0000 0.0151 0.0190 20.6 8.7 12.0
7 Ender Inciarte 0.2624 0.2341 0.1624 39.8 28.2 11.7
8 Coco Crisp 0.2109 0.1886 0.1293 37.9 27.2 10.8
9 David Wright 0.1156 0.0966 0.0530 30.3 20.5 9.9
10 Matt Kemp 0.1271 0.1087 0.0567 35.6 26.0 9.7

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Brian Dozier 0.1584
0.1134
(34.4)
0.1105
(37.4)
0.1087
(36.5)
0.1181
(32.5)
Troy Tulowitzki 0.1893
0.1352
(21.7)
0.1368
(21.6)
0.1400
(19.2)
0.1304
(24.2)
Anthony Rendon 0.1625
0.1114
(37.5)
0.1051
(42.6)
0.1092
(37.7)
0.1136
(37.3)
Danny Santana 0.1628
0.0991
(29.0)
0.1134
(23.4)
0.0965
(29.3)
0.1018
(28.6)
Dee Strange-Gordon 0.1415
0.1068
(25.0)
0.1168
(19.3)
0.0984
(29.3)
0.1153
(20.7)
Michael Brantley 0.1391
0.1138
(19.6)
0.1099
(23.1)
0.1097
(21.1)
0.1179
(18.1)
Derek Jeter 0.0741
0.1191
(26.1)
0.1300
(32.3)
0.1182
(26.7)
0.1200
(25.5)
Kole Calhoun 0.1676
0.1198
(27.7)
0.1199
(28.3)
0.1214
(25.8)
0.1181
(29.6)
Yunel Escobar 0.0624
0.1031
(19.5)
0.1083
(21.6)
0.1037
(20.9)
0.1024
(18.2)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hunter Pence 0.1223 0.1497 22.1
2 David Ortiz 0.1359 0.0980 20.5
3 Victor Martinez 0.1087 0.1357 19.7
4 Brock Holt 0.1033 0.1382 19.0
5 David Wright 0.1279 0.0922 18.8
6 Corey Dickerson 0.1206 0.1548 18.1
7 Allen Craig 0.1204 0.0812 17.9
8 Gregory Polanco 0.1066 0.1603 17.9
9 Todd Frazier 0.1102 0.1333 17.7
10 Denard Span 0.1188 0.1407 17.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.1057 0.1445 27.0
2 Curtis Granderson 0.1528 0.1116 23.7
3 Austin Jackson 0.1493 0.1082 23.7
4 David Ortiz 0.1418 0.0980 23.3
5 Allen Craig 0.1318 0.0812 23.0
6 Hunter Pence 0.1264 0.1497 20.0
7 Christian Yelich 0.1175 0.1424 19.8
8 Aramis Ramirez 0.1305 0.0885 19.7
9 Luis Valbuena 0.0939 0.1243 19.4
10 David Wright 0.1299 0.0922 19.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hunter Pence 0.1138 0.1497 26.8
2 David Ortiz 0.1404 0.0980 24.3
3 Josh Harrison 0.0994 0.1400 23.4
4 Christian Yelich 0.1111 0.1424 21.9
5 Carlos Gómez 0.1167 0.1475 21.1
6 Gregory Polanco 0.0956 0.1603 20.8
7 Shin-Soo Choo 0.1484 0.1096 19.5
8 Todd Frazier 0.1062 0.1333 19.2
9 Kendrys Morales 0.1192 0.0698 19.0
10 Billy Butler 0.1274 0.0945 18.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Victor Martinez 0.1008 0.1357 26.0
2 Corey Dickerson 0.1115 0.1548 23.4
3 Brock Holt 0.0994 0.1382 21.9
4 Jason Castro 0.1281 0.0840 19.7
5 Bryce Harper 0.1586 0.1038 19.4
6 David Wright 0.1309 0.0922 19.4
7 Jedd Gyorko 0.1320 0.0835 19.0
8 Denard Span 0.1186 0.1407 18.5
9 Anthony Rizzo 0.1206 0.1445 18.2
10 Justin Turner 0.0923 0.1429 18.1

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Curtis Granderson 0.1528 0.1287 0.1116 23.7 8.8 14.9
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.1057 0.1246 0.1445 27.0 14.6 12.4
3 Matt Holliday 0.1497 0.1328 0.1244 13.5 3.1 10.4
4 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.1313 0.1062 0.0989 11.9 1.6 10.4
5 Justin Upton 0.1506 0.1366 0.1201 16.3 8.1 8.2
6 Adeiny Hechavarría 0.0699 0.0826 0.0923 15.7 7.7 8.0
7 Brandon Moss 0.1399 0.1252 0.1207 8.2 0.5 7.7
8 Austin Jackson 0.1493 0.1363 0.1082 23.7 16.0 7.7
9 George Springer 0.1134 0.1344 0.1304 7.6 0.1 7.5
10 Justin Morneau 0.1004 0.1209 0.1127 9.6 2.4 7.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marcell Ozuna 0.0968 0.1143 0.1176 13.9 4.3 9.6
2 Billy Butler 0.1274 0.1143 0.0945 18.7 9.6 9.1
3 Marlon Byrd 0.0988 0.1143 0.1115 9.3 0.6 8.7
4 Josh Harrison 0.0994 0.1145 0.1400 23.4 16.1 7.3
5 Brian McCann 0.1276 0.1165 0.1059 10.6 3.7 6.9
6 Carlos Gómez 0.1167 0.1286 0.1475 21.1 14.6 6.5
7 Christian Yelich 0.1111 0.1225 0.1424 21.9 15.6 6.3
8 James Loney 0.1041 0.0969 0.0906 7.5 1.6 5.9
9 Alex Avila 0.1152 0.1049 0.0963 7.8 2.2 5.6
10 Salvador Perez 0.1123 0.1055 0.0941 9.9 4.6 5.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Curtis Granderson 0.1435 0.1287 0.1116 17.2 8.8 8.4
2 Matt Kemp 0.1537 0.1382 0.1285 11.7 3.6 8.1
3 Marlon Byrd 0.1298 0.1143 0.1115 8.1 0.6 7.6
4 Yasiel Puig 0.1658 0.1525 0.1437 10.5 3.2 7.3
5 Miguel Cabrera 0.1420 0.1497 0.1474 7.6 1.0 6.6
6 Nelson Cruz 0.1077 0.1151 0.1283 17.8 11.5 6.3
7 Hanley Ramirez 0.1507 0.1365 0.1250 10.3 4.0 6.3
8 Victor Martinez 0.1008 0.1087 0.1357 26.0 19.7 6.3
9 DJ LeMahieu 0.0903 0.0995 0.1097 13.4 7.5 6.0
10 Mike Zunino 0.1344 0.1200 0.1071 10.3 4.4 6.0

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Lucas Duda 0.1544
0.1136
(27.2)
0.1111
(28.0)
0.1103
(28.2)
0.1169
(26.2)
Kyle Seager 0.1468
0.1144
(24.4)
0.1081
(27.8)
0.1212
(18.9)
0.1077
(29.9)
Corey Dickerson 0.1590
0.1206
(20.7)
0.0924
(33.6)
0.1225
(19.0)
0.1187
(22.4)
Michael Brantley 0.1435
0.1041
(30.0)
0.1065
(27.6)
0.0983
(32.8)
0.1099
(27.2)
Allen Craig 0.0911
0.1501
(27.3)
0.1638
(34.8)
0.1332
(19.6)
0.1670
(35.0)
Devin Mesoraco 0.1818
0.1225
(28.3)
0.1072
(34.5)
0.1117
(32.3)
0.1333
(24.2)
Justin Upton 0.1591
0.1199
(28.3)
0.1134
(31.7)
0.1267
(22.9)
0.1130
(33.8)
Mike Trout 0.1574
0.1317
(21.6)
0.1289
(22.8)
0.1304
(21.4)
0.1331
(21.8)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Victor Martinez 0.1274 0.1607 24.5
2 José Abreu 0.1386 0.1720 23.9
3 Adrián González 0.1456 0.1758 23.1
4 Freddie Freeman 0.1472 0.1102 22.8
5 Jason Kipnis 0.1179 0.0739 21.7
6 B.J. Upton 0.1018 0.0601 21.4
7 J.D. Martinez 0.1190 0.1583 21.3
8 Mark Teixeira 0.1681 0.1220 20.9
9 Jean Segura 0.0979 0.0557 20.8
10 Russell Martin 0.1054 0.1457 20.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.1087 0.1720 41.7
2 James Jones 0.1087 0.0274 25.4
3 Hunter Pence 0.1412 0.1045 23.3
4 Jason Kipnis 0.1194 0.0739 23.2
5 B.J. Upton 0.1031 0.0601 22.8
6 Adam LaRoche 0.1218 0.1570 22.8
7 Dustin Ackley 0.0818 0.1199 22.7
8 Freddie Freeman 0.1458 0.1102 22.5
9 Curtis Granderson 0.1373 0.1009 21.3
10 Brock Holt 0.1048 0.0589 20.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Victor Martinez 0.1211 0.1607 27.5
2 Adrián González 0.1395 0.1758 26.2
3 J.D. Martinez 0.1112 0.1583 24.2
4 Nick Markakis 0.1061 0.0704 23.0
5 James Jones 0.0974 0.0274 21.9
6 Russell Martin 0.1016 0.1457 21.8
7 B.J. Upton 0.1002 0.0601 21.4
8 Xander Bogaerts 0.1159 0.0774 20.9
9 Ian Kinsler 0.1016 0.1267 20.7
10 Leonys Martin 0.1068 0.0686 20.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Abreu 0.1208 0.1720 35.9
2 Mark Teixeira 0.1966 0.1220 34.6
3 Freddie Freeman 0.1557 0.1102 27.6
4 Mark Reynolds 0.1692 0.1039 25.4
5 Jason Kipnis 0.1259 0.0739 25.3
6 Dustin Ackley 0.0818 0.1199 24.2
7 Jonathan Lucroy 0.1482 0.1053 23.8
8 Trevor Plouffe 0.1043 0.1375 23.1
9 Jay Bruce 0.1692 0.1211 22.7
10 Chris Johnson 0.1385 0.0949 22.6

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Abreu 0.1087 0.1386 0.1720 41.7 23.9 17.9
2 Curtis Granderson 0.1373 0.1112 0.1009 21.3 3.5 17.8
3 Justin Morneau 0.1215 0.1501 0.1491 17.2 2.2 15.1
4 Corey Dickerson 0.0924 0.1206 0.1590 33.6 20.7 12.9
5 Ender Inciarte 0.1087 0.0823 0.0604 19.9 7.6 12.3
6 Robinson Canó 0.1471 0.1311 0.1233 13.3 1.9 11.5
7 Brock Holt 0.1048 0.0861 0.0589 20.7 10.9 9.8
8 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.1313 0.1099 0.1011 11.5 1.7 9.8
9 Matt Carpenter 0.1132 0.1009 0.0832 18.6 9.0 9.6
10 Billy Hamilton 0.1014 0.0791 0.0786 11.7 2.7 9.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ryan Howard 0.1313 0.1509 0.1466 12.1 0.4 11.7
2 Matt Kemp 0.1340 0.1460 0.1486 10.7 4.5 6.2
3 Jason Heyward 0.1216 0.1138 0.0894 18.8 12.7 6.1
4 Yangervis Solarte 0.1063 0.0972 0.0897 7.1 1.4 5.7
5 José Reyes 0.0961 0.0890 0.0779 9.7 4.1 5.7
6 Chase Utley 0.1104 0.1200 0.1175 6.9 1.6 5.3
7 Juan Uribe 0.1067 0.1213 0.1337 12.3 7.0 5.3
8 Marcell Ozuna 0.1120 0.1219 0.1389 18.5 13.4 5.1
9 Mike Moustakas 0.1216 0.1127 0.1080 5.2 0.1 5.0
10 Jhonny Peralta 0.1043 0.1137 0.1194 11.6 6.7 4.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mark Teixeira 0.1966 0.1681 0.1220 34.6 20.9 13.7
2 José Abreu 0.1208 0.1386 0.1720 35.9 23.9 12.0
3 Ryan Howard 0.1705 0.1509 0.1466 11.2 0.4 10.8
4 Jonathan Lucroy 0.1482 0.1323 0.1053 23.8 14.4 9.4
5 Ryan Braun 0.1747 0.1584 0.1397 16.5 8.0 8.5
6 Omar Infante 0.0823 0.0951 0.1148 22.4 14.2 8.3
7 Mark Reynolds 0.1692 0.1489 0.1039 25.4 17.4 8.1
8 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1374 0.1481 0.1646 21.5 13.7 7.8
9 Allen Craig 0.1670 0.1501 0.0911 35.0 27.3 7.7
10 Daniel Murphy 0.1215 0.1081 0.0888 16.8 9.2 7.6

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Chris Davis 0.1956
0.2672
(38.5)
0.2739
(40.2)
0.2679
(38.7)
0.2665
(38.2)
Justin Turner 0.3403
0.2577
(26.1)
0.2644
(25.0)
0.2542
(27.3)
0.2613
(24.9)
Russell Martin 0.2902
0.2311
(26.5)
0.2294
(28.9)
0.2278
(28.1)
0.2344
(24.9)
Danny Santana 0.3185
0.2563
(26.1)
0.2632
(24.6)
0.2586
(25.2)
0.2540
(27.0)
Jose Altuve 0.3409
0.2831
(39.8)
0.2794
(44.8)
0.2809
(41.5)
0.2853
(38.1)
Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2890
0.2489
(25.0)
0.2519
(25.3)
0.2468
(26.6)
0.2510
(23.5)
Casey McGehee 0.2873
0.2453
(28.0)
0.2275
(42.6)
0.2417
(30.6)
0.2489
(25.3)
Michael Brantley 0.3273
0.2750
(34.3)
0.2769
(35.3)
0.2725
(36.2)
0.2776
(32.4)
Allen Craig 0.2148
0.2879
(37.8)
0.3015
(42.8)
0.2920
(39.7)
0.2838
(35.8)
José Abreu 0.3165
0.2706
(27.6)
0.2632
(34.4)
0.2686
(29.0)
0.2725
(26.3)
J.D. Martinez 0.3152
0.2522
(29.5)
0.2507
(31.9)
0.2512
(30.1)
0.2532
(28.9)
Josh Harrison 0.3154
0.2648
(27.0)
0.2520
(35.9)
0.2657
(26.6)
0.2638
(27.4)
Juan Uribe 0.3109
0.2396
(28.2)
0.2474
(26.4)
0.2370
(29.3)
0.2421
(27.1)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Victor Martinez 0.2902 0.3351 27.8
2 Nate Schierholtz 0.2585 0.1955 24.7
3 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.2515 0.1979 23.3
4 Jon Singleton 0.2301 0.1677 23.1
5 Stephen Drew 0.2360 0.1624 22.5
6 Mike Moustakas 0.2550 0.2123 22.2
7 Jedd Gyorko 0.2576 0.2100 21.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Morneau 0.2574 0.3187 34.8
2 Jon Singleton 0.2632 0.1677 33.9
3 Anthony Rizzo 0.2420 0.2863 28.4
4 Corey Dickerson 0.2570 0.3119 27.1
5 Adam Eaton 0.2532 0.3004 26.4
6 Kurt Suzuki 0.2376 0.2876 26.1
7 Lorenzo Cain 0.2543 0.3015 24.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Victor Martinez 0.2895 0.3351 28.4
2 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.2575 0.1979 25.8
3 Omar Infante 0.2928 0.2519 24.3
4 Nate Schierholtz 0.2573 0.1955 24.2
5 Jedd Gyorko 0.2609 0.2100 23.1
6 Kendrys Morales 0.2731 0.2180 22.6
7 Brad Miller 0.2737 0.2207 22.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Victor Martinez 0.2909 0.3351 27.2
2 Adam Eaton 0.2505 0.3004 25.9
3 Derek Norris 0.2110 0.2701 25.4
4 Nate Schierholtz 0.2597 0.1955 25.3
5 Jon Singleton 0.2330 0.1677 24.3
6 Lorenzo Cain 0.2523 0.3015 23.8
7 Stephen Drew 0.2390 0.1624 23.5

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Casey McGehee 0.2275 0.2453 0.2873 42.6 28.0 14.7
2 Justin Morneau 0.2574 0.2804 0.3187 34.8 20.2 14.6
3 Anthony Rizzo 0.2420 0.2600 0.2863 28.4 15.2 13.2
4 Derek Jeter 0.2930 0.2688 0.2565 22.0 8.8 13.2
5 Matt Carpenter 0.2987 0.2777 0.2723 17.4 5.0 12.4
6 Brandon Moss 0.2629 0.2403 0.2340 15.7 4.6 11.1
7 Robbie Grossman 0.2635 0.2345 0.2333 11.9 1.1 10.8
8 Jon Singleton 0.2632 0.2301 0.1677 33.9 23.1 10.7
9 Nolan Arenado 0.2636 0.2829 0.2870 11.8 1.2 10.6
10 Drew Stubbs 0.2330 0.2538 0.2887 24.4 14.1 10.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Derek Jeter 0.2790 0.2688 0.2565 15.2 8.8 6.3
2 David Freese 0.2704 0.2587 0.2597 6.1 0.3 5.8
3 Curtis Granderson 0.2160 0.2264 0.2270 6.3 0.7 5.6
4 Norichika Aoki 0.2994 0.2892 0.2851 8.5 3.1 5.5
5 Marlon Byrd 0.2527 0.2642 0.2640 6.3 1.2 5.1
6 Austin Jackson 0.2777 0.2698 0.2563 14.9 9.9 5.0
7 Jhonny Peralta 0.2527 0.2598 0.2625 5.4 0.7 4.6
8 Shin-Soo Choo 0.2801 0.2723 0.2418 21.0 17.0 4.0
9 Matt Carpenter 0.2836 0.2777 0.2723 8.9 5.0 4.0
10 Ian Kinsler 0.2608 0.2659 0.2749 9.3 5.3 3.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marlon Byrd 0.2757 0.2642 0.2640 8.6 1.2 7.4
2 Curtis Granderson 0.2367 0.2264 0.2270 7.6 0.7 6.9
3 Adam Eaton 0.2505 0.2616 0.3004 25.9 20.0 5.9
4 Billy Hamilton 0.2644 0.2553 0.2504 9.6 3.9 5.7
5 Jimmy Rollins 0.2556 0.2467 0.2435 8.5 2.9 5.5
6 David Freese 0.2471 0.2587 0.2597 5.5 0.3 5.3
7 Brock Holt 0.2565 0.2660 0.2806 11.0 6.4 4.6
8 Derek Norris 0.2110 0.2206 0.2701 25.4 21.2 4.2
9 Justin Upton 0.2588 0.2654 0.2703 6.2 2.1 4.1
10 Giancarlo Stanton 0.2568 0.2634 0.2876 18.5 14.4 4.1

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Roenis Elías 693
4
(689.0)
100
(593.0)
4
(689.0)
100
(593.0)
Nick Martinez 610
5
(605.0)
100
(510.0)
5
(605.0)
100
(510.0)
Jhoulys Chacín 272
738
(466.5)
713
(441.0)
759
(487.0)
718
(445.9)
CC Sabathia 209
825
(616.0)
773
(564.0)
807
(598.0)
843
(633.9)
Scott Carroll 573
5
(568.0)
100
(473.0)
5
(568.0)
100
(473.0)
Colby Lewis 762
232
(530.5)
289
(473.0)
124
(638.0)
339
(423.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Harang 322 876 553.5
2 José Fernández 721 205 516.0
3 Dan Straily 734 231 503.0
4 David Buchanan 4 503 499.0
5 Chris Young 190 688 497.9
6 Martín Pérez 689 207 482.0
7 Alfredo Simon 346 818 472.4
8 Josh Collmenter 248 719 471.0
9 Hector Noesí 282 733 451.0
10 Cliff Lee 796 352 444.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tanner Roark 264 798 534.0
2 Sonny Gray 368 899 531.0
3 Joe Saunders 722 215 507.0
4 Johnny Cueto 463 961 498.0
5 Alfredo Simon 321 818 497.0
6 Drew Hutchison 291 786 495.0
7 Yordano Ventura 297 782 485.0
8 Jacob deGrom 100 565 465.0
9 Hector Noesí 274 733 459.0
10 Jake Odorizzi 274 719 445.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Harang 42 876 834.0
2 Hector Noesí 43 733 690.0
3 Edinson Volquez 210 809 599.0
4 José Fernández 803 205 598.0
5 Collin McHugh 43 619 576.0
6 Chris Young 129 688 559.0
7 Josh Collmenter 168 719 551.0
8 Kyle Gibson 211 757 546.0
9 Jake Arrieta 84 614 530.0
10 Jacob deGrom 43 565 522.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Straily 764 231 533.1
2 Drew Hutchison 265 786 521.1
3 Alfredo Simon 310 818 507.9
4 Joe Saunders 713 215 497.9
5 Martín Pérez 703 207 496.0
6 Cliff Lee 809 352 456.9
7 Mat Latos 875 420 454.9
8 Chris Young 251 688 436.9
9 José Fernández 639 205 434.0
10 Trevor May 642 213 428.9

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Sonny Gray 368 773 899 531.0 126.0 405.0
2 Yordano Ventura 297 598 782 485.0 184.0 301.0
3 Tanner Roark 264 563 798 534.0 235.0 299.0
4 Alex Wood 334 608 694 360.0 85.5 274.5
5 Jeremy Hellickson 698 435 281 417.0 154.0 263.0
6 Jarred Cosart 388 648 766 378.0 118.0 260.0
7 Zack Wheeler 485 742 794 309.0 52.5 256.5
8 Marcus Stroman 100 347 534 434.0 187.1 246.9
9 Jake Odorizzi 274 514 719 445.0 204.5 240.5
10 Erik Bedard 615 308 342 273.0 33.5 239.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 TJ House 4 338 429 425.0 91.1 333.9
2 Matt Shoemaker 83 410 543 460.0 132.9 327.1
3 Tyler Matzek 5 306 503 498.0 197.4 300.6
4 Kyle Hendricks 4 304 321 317.0 17.1 299.9
5 Shane Greene 5 301 345 340.0 43.9 296.1
6 Aaron Harang 42 322 876 834.0 553.5 280.5
7 Collin McHugh 43 323 619 576.0 296.0 280.0
8 Jake Arrieta 84 358 614 530.0 256.4 273.6
9 Edinson Volquez 210 474 809 599.0 334.9 264.1
10 Jacob deGrom 43 302 565 522.0 262.5 259.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yohan Flande 583 294 241 342.1 52.6 289.5
2 Trevor May 642 364 213 428.9 151.4 277.5
3 Jeremy Hellickson 706 435 281 425.0 154.0 271.0
4 Kyle Hendricks 604 304 321 282.9 17.1 265.9
5 Allen Webster 589 338 259 330.1 78.6 251.5
6 Zack Britton 612 370 285 326.9 84.9 242.0
7 Yohan Pino 502 253 258 244.1 4.9 239.1
8 Justin Grimm 599 362 292 307.0 70.5 236.5
9 Brandon Cumpton 620 396 309 311.0 86.5 224.5
10 Todd Redmond 540 312 314 226.1 2.4 223.6

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Carlos Carrasco 0.2647
0.1720
(42.6)
0.1731
(45.4)
0.1809
(37.9)
0.1632
(48.0)
Justin Verlander 0.1781
0.2367
(63.1)
0.2354
(56.4)
0.2234
(51.3)
0.2500
(73.8)
Shelby Miller 0.1662
0.2308
(58.6)
0.2228
(47.6)
0.2300
(58.0)
0.2317
(58.2)
Wade Davis 0.3907
0.1966
(50.8)
0.1936
(53.4)
0.2065
(48.0)
0.1867
(53.9)
Garrett Richards 0.2419
0.1548
(50.9)
0.1703
(44.7)
0.1564
(49.7)
0.1532
(52.9)
Jake Arrieta 0.2720
0.1894
(43.3)
0.1974
(42.3)
0.1965
(38.9)
0.1822
(48.6)
Corey Kluber 0.2829
0.2066
(61.0)
0.2096
(64.2)
0.1985
(68.7)
0.2148
(54.6)
Dellin Betances 0.3959
0.2071
(60.3)
0.2109
(61.1)
0.2342
(51.0)
0.1801
(69.9)
Johnny Cueto 0.2518
0.1834
(54.1)
0.1922
(51.7)
0.1897
(48.0)
0.1771
(61.5)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Collmenter 0.2120 0.1599 46.1
2 Jacob deGrom 0.1614 0.2549 46.0
3 Collin McHugh 0.1720 0.2536 43.1
4 Jake Odorizzi 0.1716 0.2420 41.9
5 Matt Shoemaker 0.1408 0.2284 41.0
6 Clayton Kershaw 0.2526 0.3191 40.8
7 Franklin Morales 0.2052 0.1548 40.4
8 Brandon McCarthy 0.1493 0.2093 40.1
9 Yusmeiro Petit 0.1942 0.2885 37.9
10 A.J. Burnett 0.2303 0.2032 36.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Scott Carroll 0.2056 0.1117 57.1
2 Nick Martinez 0.2056 0.1262 51.9
3 Clayton Kershaw 0.2463 0.3191 50.2
4 Brad Boxberger 0.2143 0.4211 49.6
5 Nick Tepesch 0.1907 0.1043 49.5
6 Collin McHugh 0.1709 0.2536 47.6
7 Andrew Miller 0.2350 0.4256 44.7
8 David Price 0.2188 0.2686 44.5
9 Jon Lester 0.1985 0.2486 39.2
10 Aroldis Chapman 0.3258 0.5248 39.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Franklin Morales 0.2154 0.1548 47.0
2 Clayton Kershaw 0.2494 0.3191 43.1
3 A.J. Burnett 0.2363 0.2032 42.3
4 David Price 0.2149 0.2686 41.9
5 Brandon McCarthy 0.1477 0.2093 41.3
6 Josh Collmenter 0.2046 0.1599 40.8
7 Jon Lester 0.1907 0.2486 40.5
8 Matt Shoemaker 0.1460 0.2284 38.1
9 Brad Boxberger 0.2556 0.4211 37.9
10 Nick Tepesch 0.1612 0.1043 37.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Scott Carroll 0.2056 0.1117 59.9
2 Jacob deGrom 0.1441 0.2549 56.5
3 Nick Martinez 0.2056 0.1262 54.9
4 Collin McHugh 0.1559 0.2536 53.9
5 Josh Collmenter 0.2195 0.1599 50.5
6 Jake Odorizzi 0.1629 0.2420 49.2
7 Yusmeiro Petit 0.1757 0.2885 47.1
8 Matt Shoemaker 0.1357 0.2284 44.5
9 Zach Duke 0.1253 0.3109 41.6
10 Brandon McCarthy 0.1508 0.2093 40.0

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Scott Carroll 0.2056 0.1122 0.1117 57.1 7.2 49.9
2 Nick Martinez 0.2056 0.1178 0.1262 51.9 2.2 49.7
3 David Buchanan 0.2056 0.1527 0.1412 35.3 11.9 23.4
4 Tanner Roark 0.1970 0.1564 0.1729 23.8 3.5 20.3
5 David Hale 0.2064 0.1512 0.1149 37.3 18.5 18.7
6 Sonny Gray 0.2201 0.1938 0.2036 20.1 2.1 18.0
7 Kyle Hendricks 0.2056 0.1490 0.1464 20.8 4.7 16.1
8 Aroldis Chapman 0.3258 0.3982 0.5248 39.0 23.1 15.9
9 Christian Bergman 0.2056 0.1365 0.1245 21.6 6.0 15.6
10 Andrew Miller 0.2350 0.2930 0.4256 44.7 29.2 15.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Hector Noesí 0.1741 0.1590 0.1678 13.5 2.4 11.1
2 Masahiro Tanaka 0.1951 0.2144 0.2601 28.7 18.2 10.4
3 Nathan Eovaldi 0.1789 0.1675 0.1663 21.2 11.3 9.8
4 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.1902 0.2040 0.2172 10.6 0.8 9.7
5 Rubby De La Rosa 0.2120 0.1911 0.1678 24.9 15.6 9.3
6 Tommy Kahnle 0.2650 0.2340 0.2211 16.0 7.1 8.9
7 Yordano Ventura 0.2077 0.1965 0.2033 12.9 4.1 8.8
8 Henderson Alvarez 0.1426 0.1318 0.1438 8.5 0.1 8.4
9 Jimmy Nelson 0.2136 0.1868 0.1833 13.2 4.8 8.4
10 David Robertson 0.2648 0.2958 0.3707 24.3 16.3 8.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Scott Carroll 0.2056 0.1122 0.1117 59.9 7.2 52.7
2 Nick Martinez 0.2056 0.1178 0.1262 54.9 2.2 52.7
3 David Buchanan 0.2056 0.1527 0.1412 37.8 11.9 25.9
4 Christian Bergman 0.2056 0.1365 0.1245 22.9 6.0 16.9
5 Tanner Roark 0.1414 0.1564 0.1729 16.6 3.5 13.1
6 Collin McHugh 0.1559 0.1720 0.2536 53.9 43.1 10.8
7 Justin Verlander 0.2500 0.2367 0.1781 73.8 63.1 10.6
8 Jacob deGrom 0.1441 0.1614 0.2549 56.5 46.0 10.5
9 Dellin Betances 0.1801 0.2071 0.3959 69.9 60.3 9.7
10 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2443 0.2255 0.2098 25.0 15.4 9.6

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alfredo Simon 0.4688
0.0880
(305.8)
0.1000
(240.7)
0.1004
(288.1)
0.0784
(319.5)
Clayton Kershaw 0.7778
0.5041
(199.8)
0.3590
(257.9)
0.4649
(222.3)
0.5455
(174.2)
Tanner Roark 0.4839
0.2755
(160.7)
0.2083
(160.4)
0.2561
(168.9)
0.2941
(151.6)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Roenis Elías 0.0000 0.3448 234.1
2 Collin McHugh 0.0811 0.4400 217.8
3 Josh Collmenter 0.0747 0.3333 180.9
4 Jacob deGrom 0.0857 0.4091 178.8
5 Garrett Richards 0.2452 0.5000 168.0
6 Jake Peavy 0.4052 0.2188 164.8
7 Dallas Keuchel 0.2090 0.4138 159.9
8 Phil Hughes 0.3141 0.5000 153.0
9 Jeff Samardzija 0.3788 0.2121 152.6
10 Francisco Liriano 0.4549 0.2414 152.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Shoemaker 0.1111 0.5926 221.0
2 Yordano Ventura 0.1071 0.4516 211.1
3 Corey Kluber 0.2432 0.5294 201.3
4 Wily Peralta 0.2195 0.5312 198.8
5 Garrett Richards 0.1333 0.5000 198.1
6 Johnny Cueto 0.3077 0.5882 198.0
7 Tyson Ross 0.1053 0.4194 194.3
8 Adam Wainwright 0.3415 0.6250 187.7
9 Phil Hughes 0.2105 0.5000 183.8
10 Doug Fister 0.2895 0.6400 182.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 0.0539 0.4400 229.0
2 Roenis Elías 0.0000 0.3448 227.8
3 Chase Anderson 0.0000 0.4286 200.5
4 Jacob deGrom 0.0548 0.4091 191.1
5 Vidal Nuño 0.3298 0.0645 191.0
6 Johnny Cueto 0.3778 0.5882 186.8
7 Josh Collmenter 0.0623 0.3333 183.3
8 Wily Peralta 0.3175 0.5312 165.6
9 Dallas Keuchel 0.1939 0.4138 164.7
10 Jake Peavy 0.3946 0.2188 163.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Garrett Richards 0.1750 0.5000 220.5
2 Francisco Liriano 0.5000 0.2414 178.6
3 Corey Kluber 0.3462 0.5294 174.5
4 Phil Hughes 0.2963 0.5000 174.4
5 Kyle Gibson 0.1905 0.4194 173.4
6 Josh Collmenter 0.0926 0.3333 173.2
7 Jake Peavy 0.4167 0.2188 168.4
8 Matt Shoemaker 0.2963 0.5926 161.0
9 Tyson Ross 0.2258 0.4194 157.1
10 Jarred Cosart 0.2308 0.4333 155.3

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Sonny Gray 0.2000 0.4239 0.4242 134.6 6.0 128.6
2 Yordano Ventura 0.1071 0.3189 0.4516 211.1 98.3 112.8
3 John Lackey 0.2500 0.4389 0.4516 105.8 4.8 101.1
4 Matt Shoemaker 0.1111 0.3426 0.5926 221.0 132.0 89.0
5 Scott Kazmir 0.2051 0.3802 0.4688 146.9 63.3 83.6
6 Tyson Ross 0.1053 0.2757 0.4194 194.3 110.9 83.4
7 Tommy Kahnle 0.2748 0.0515 0.0370 89.0 6.1 82.9
8 Jake Odorizzi 0.1200 0.3016 0.3548 115.3 33.2 82.0
9 Jon Lester 0.2821 0.4378 0.5000 126.9 48.8 78.1
10 Adam Wainwright 0.3415 0.4917 0.6250 187.7 113.5 74.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chase Anderson 0.0000 0.4420 0.4286 200.5 9.9 190.6
2 Jesse Hahn 0.0000 0.3471 0.5000 148.1 44.6 103.4
3 Tyler Matzek 0.0000 0.4564 0.3000 142.8 82.2 60.7
4 Shane Greene 0.0000 0.4727 0.3333 109.5 50.5 59.0
5 Carlos Carrasco 0.3557 0.2653 0.2000 90.9 38.2 52.6
6 Vidal Nuño 0.3298 0.2679 0.0645 191.0 142.8 48.2
7 Jose Quintana 0.3666 0.3179 0.2812 84.2 36.2 48.0
8 David Phelps 0.3343 0.2513 0.1562 96.5 50.7 45.8
9 Trevor Bauer 0.3082 0.2517 0.1923 87.5 44.0 43.5
10 Johnny Cueto 0.3778 0.4296 0.5882 186.8 145.8 41.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chase Anderson 0.2000 0.4420 0.4286 111.2 9.9 101.3
2 Jesse Hahn 0.0769 0.3471 0.5000 129.5 44.6 84.9
3 Ross Detwiler 0.3043 0.0990 0.0426 71.7 17.4 54.3
4 Yusmeiro Petit 0.2500 0.1271 0.1282 56.0 2.7 53.3
5 Garrett Richards 0.1750 0.2452 0.5000 220.5 168.0 52.5
6 Brad Hand 0.2400 0.1243 0.0938 69.2 17.8 51.4
7 Kyle Gibson 0.1905 0.2481 0.4194 173.4 124.3 49.1
8 Justin Grimm 0.2667 0.0976 0.0685 57.8 10.6 47.3
9 Brandon Workman 0.2903 0.1591 0.0526 89.8 42.9 46.9
10 Tyson Ross 0.2258 0.2757 0.4194 157.1 110.9 46.3

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Héctor Rondón 0.4531
0.0000
(114.0)
0.0323
(111.8)
0.0000
(114.0)
0.0000
(108.1)
Mark Melancon 0.4583
0.0624
(108.0)
0.1633
(86.6)
0.0615
(108.3)
0.0000
(118.9)
Jenrry Mejia 0.4444
0.0000
(182.9)
0.0370
(177.2)
0.0000
(182.8)
0.0000
(173.2)
Francisco Rodríguez 0.6377
0.0755
(149.1)
0.1395
(138.2)
0.0769
(148.7)
0.0000
(163.1)
Zack Britton 0.5211
0.0000
(146.8)
0.0400
(142.1)
0.0000
(146.8)
0.0000
(140.2)
Fernando Rodney 0.6957
0.3629
(93.5)
0.4200
(83.9)
0.3692
(91.6)
0.0000
(190.6)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jim Johnson 0.4576 0.0370 112.2
2 Sean Doolittle 0.0185 0.3607 79.4
3 Jason Grilli 0.5231 0.1935 78.8
4 Huston Street 0.3514 0.6721 72.1
5 Josh Fields 0.3800 0.0741 72.0
6 Jose Veras 0.3562 0.0217 69.1
7 Santiago Casilla 0.0291 0.3519 69.1
8 Danny Farquhar 0.2446 0.0152 68.3
9 Grant Balfour 0.4200 0.1846 65.1
10 Jake Petricka 0.0000 0.2090 62.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0435 0.6250 184.5
2 David Robertson 0.0392 0.6190 154.7
3 Jim Johnson 0.4902 0.0370 114.6
4 Kenley Jansen 0.2778 0.6471 103.7
5 Steve Cishek 0.2745 0.5821 89.4
6 Greg Holland 0.3673 0.7077 85.9
7 Cody Allen 0.0417 0.3158 81.4
8 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.2889 0.0175 80.4
9 Sean Doolittle 0.0426 0.3607 79.2
10 Chris Perez 0.4091 0.0204 74.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jim Johnson 0.4462 0.0370 109.2
2 Sean Doolittle 0.0182 0.3607 79.4
3 Jason Grilli 0.5231 0.1935 78.8
4 Jose Veras 0.3692 0.0217 71.8
5 Santiago Casilla 0.0308 0.3519 68.7
6 Grant Balfour 0.4308 0.1846 68.1
7 Huston Street 0.3692 0.6721 68.0
8 Josh Fields 0.3538 0.0741 66.0
9 Jake Petricka 0.0000 0.2090 62.3
10 Danny Farquhar 0.2154 0.0152 59.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0000 0.6250 183.6
2 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.7460 174.9
3 Kenley Jansen 0.0000 0.6471 165.6
4 Greg Holland 0.0000 0.7077 162.9
5 David Robertson 0.0000 0.6190 152.8
6 Steve Cishek 0.0000 0.5821 152.1
7 Huston Street 0.0000 0.6721 147.3
8 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.5909 145.5
9 Joe Nathan 0.0000 0.5645 138.7
10 Glen Perkins 0.0000 0.5397 132.8

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0435 0.5246 0.6250 184.5 29.1 155.4
2 David Robertson 0.0392 0.5082 0.6190 154.7 27.2 127.6
3 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.2889 0.0189 0.0175 80.4 2.3 78.2
4 Steve Cishek 0.2745 0.5128 0.5821 89.4 17.4 72.0
5 Chris Perez 0.4091 0.0000 0.0204 74.2 2.9 71.3
6 Koji Uehara 0.1458 0.4079 0.4062 69.2 1.9 67.3
7 Kenley Jansen 0.2778 0.4923 0.6471 103.7 39.9 63.8
8 Brandon League 0.2391 0.0000 0.0000 60.5 1.6 58.9
9 Glen Perkins 0.2917 0.4906 0.5397 69.1 11.2 57.8
10 LaTroy Hawkins 0.1042 0.3031 0.4035 71.6 21.4 50.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Sergio Romo 0.5077 0.4564 0.3594 35.5 23.7 11.8
2 Addison Reed 0.4769 0.5038 0.5161 8.4 1.6 6.8
3 Koji Uehara 0.4308 0.4079 0.4062 7.6 1.9 5.7
4 Trevor Rosenthal 0.5077 0.5246 0.6250 34.3 29.1 5.2
5 Greg Holland 0.5231 0.5401 0.7077 42.9 38.8 4.1
6 Wade Davis 0.0175 0.0292 0.0423 5.2 2.0 3.2
7 Aroldis Chapman 0.8667 0.8521 0.6667 41.6 38.7 2.9
8 Grant Balfour 0.4308 0.4200 0.1846 68.1 65.1 2.9
9 Jose Veras 0.3692 0.3562 0.0217 71.8 69.1 2.6
10 John Axford 0.3077 0.2991 0.1613 37.0 34.9 2.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0000 0.5246 0.6250 183.6 29.1 154.5
2 Steve Cishek 0.0000 0.5128 0.5821 152.1 17.4 134.7
3 Joe Nathan 0.0000 0.5184 0.5645 138.7 10.4 128.3
4 Kenley Jansen 0.0000 0.4923 0.6471 165.6 39.9 125.7
5 David Robertson 0.0000 0.5082 0.6190 152.8 27.2 125.6
6 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.5338 0.7460 174.9 50.3 124.6
7 Greg Holland 0.0000 0.5401 0.7077 162.9 38.8 124.1
8 Glen Perkins 0.0000 0.4906 0.5397 132.8 11.2 121.5
9 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.4920 0.5909 145.5 24.1 121.5
10 Addison Reed 0.0000 0.5038 0.5161 122.7 1.6 121.1

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Clay Buchholz 5.3366
3.9460
(1290.0)
3.4589
(1496.3)
4.2556
(1063.6)
3.6364
(1495.1)
Travis Wood 5.0269
4.0935
(1009.9)
3.7140
(1144.6)
4.3108
(842.1)
3.8789
(1153.0)
Justin Verlander 4.5437
3.2649
(1463.2)
3.1439
(1386.3)
3.4566
(1294.1)
3.0734
(1606.2)
Edwin Jackson 6.3341
4.1117
(1634.4)
4.3531
(1350.6)
4.2320
(1559.8)
3.9896
(1691.9)
Robbie Ross Jr. 6.2043
3.4754
(1127.3)
3.2243
(1143.4)
3.3549
(1172.2)
3.6000
(1070.4)
Jake Arrieta 2.5277
4.4470
(957.7)
4.9245
(1378.0)
4.2615
(842.3)
4.6385
(1094.5)
Jim Johnson 7.0875
3.3236
(1084.5)
3.2432
(1051.2)
3.3964
(1066.0)
3.2500
(1095.6)
Corey Kluber 2.4441
4.0458
(1181.1)
4.1147
(1443.6)
4.0667
(1198.7)
4.0248
(1191.0)
Justin Masterson 5.8756
3.8349
(1421.0)
3.8997
(1260.1)
3.8901
(1389.8)
3.7788
(1435.7)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dellin Betances 5.1387 1.4000 1152.3
2 Dallas Keuchel 4.6664 2.9250 1116.4
3 A.J. Burnett 3.8016 4.5913 1074.7
4 Garrett Richards 4.4736 2.6146 1016.5
5 Mike Minor 3.5582 4.7683 1000.0
6 Trevor Cahill 4.0648 5.6114 951.2
7 Jacob Turner 4.6228 6.1327 936.7
8 Jon Lester 3.8716 2.4583 932.5
9 Carlos Carrasco 4.6707 2.5522 930.4
10 Chris Young 5.3563 3.6545 923.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 5.4633 2.7349 1594.4
2 Dallas Keuchel 4.8111 2.9250 1400.7
3 Edinson Volquez 4.8363 3.0363 1332.7
4 Jon Lester 4.0514 2.4583 1274.9
5 Jacob Turner 3.9767 6.1327 1156.6
6 Carlos Carrasco 4.7832 2.5522 1099.5
7 Colby Lewis 3.9017 5.1781 1088.8
8 Henderson Alvarez 4.1642 2.6471 1053.4
9 Ricky Nolasco 4.0770 5.3774 1009.8
10 Franklin Morales 3.9919 5.3747 991.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 A.J. Burnett 3.6675 4.5913 1202.3
2 Franklin Morales 3.9476 5.3747 1155.8
3 Johnny Cueto 3.7401 2.2531 1081.0
4 Jon Lester 4.0092 2.4583 1052.2
5 Garrett Richards 4.4795 2.6146 1018.9
6 Edinson Volquez 4.5647 3.0363 943.5
7 Trevor Cahill 4.0910 5.6114 939.4
8 Chris Young 5.3804 3.6545 938.3
9 Mike Minor 3.7134 4.7683 902.7
10 Hector Noesí 3.9597 4.7524 846.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dellin Betances 6.2358 1.4000 1537.0
2 Dallas Keuchel 5.0192 2.9250 1426.8
3 Collin McHugh 5.2500 2.7349 1353.6
4 Carlos Carrasco 5.0737 2.5522 1160.2
5 Mike Minor 3.4051 4.7683 1077.5
6 Jacob Turner 4.3484 6.1327 1058.5
7 Ricky Nolasco 4.2037 5.3774 1043.9
8 Garrett Richards 4.4676 2.6146 1033.7
9 C.J. Wilson 3.5124 4.5085 1007.9
10 Trevor Cahill 4.0381 5.6114 948.9

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Collin McHugh 5.4633 4.5819 2.7349 1594.4 920.6 673.8
2 Vidal Nuño 3.6508 4.8236 4.5649 724.3 68.6 655.7
3 Brett Oberholtzer 3.4038 5.0131 4.3852 706.5 167.1 539.3
4 Kevin Correia 4.1873 5.1091 5.4351 962.0 471.1 491.0
5 Scott Carroll 3.6471 5.6340 4.8015 749.0 270.9 478.1
6 Jeff Samardzija 4.0081 3.6972 2.9909 760.0 304.7 455.3
7 Colby Lewis 3.9017 4.6997 5.1781 1088.8 638.6 450.3
8 Edinson Volquez 4.8363 4.5233 3.0363 1332.7 911.9 420.8
9 Jake Arrieta 4.9245 4.4470 2.5277 1378.0 957.7 420.3
10 Lance Lynn 3.9019 3.6349 2.7398 874.2 463.7 410.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Hector Noesí 3.9597 4.7191 4.7524 846.5 288.1 558.4
2 Roberto Hernandez 3.9104 4.4552 4.0992 397.7 2.7 395.1
3 Rubby De La Rosa 4.0206 4.7890 4.4262 338.6 1.4 337.2
4 Jarred Cosart 5.1529 4.7273 3.6932 840.8 516.6 324.2
5 Alfredo Simon 4.2252 3.8696 3.4380 347.7 58.8 288.9
6 Franklin Morales 3.9476 4.3808 5.3747 1155.8 874.4 281.4
7 Sonny Gray 4.1729 3.8607 3.0822 655.1 376.5 278.5
8 Kyle Lohse 4.5358 4.1981 3.5395 518.2 244.2 274.0
9 Johnny Cueto 3.7401 3.4546 2.2531 1081.0 809.0 272.0
10 Zack Wheeler 4.3052 3.9610 3.5450 316.1 44.8 271.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Scott Carroll 3.6471 5.6340 4.8015 849.7 270.9 578.8
2 Collin McHugh 5.2500 4.5819 2.7349 1353.6 920.6 432.9
3 Roberto Hernandez 5.0218 4.4552 4.0992 429.1 2.7 426.4
4 Nick Martinez 3.6471 5.4990 4.5534 753.2 357.4 395.8
5 Rubby De La Rosa 5.6332 4.7890 4.4262 387.5 1.4 386.1
6 Dellin Betances 6.2358 5.1387 1.4000 1537.0 1152.3 384.8
7 Christian Bergman 3.6471 5.1570 5.9268 649.4 281.2 368.2
8 Jered Weaver 3.2385 3.6757 3.5859 600.1 239.7 360.3
9 Chase Whitley 3.6471 4.6440 5.2335 631.9 313.2 318.7
10 Dallas Keuchel 5.0192 4.6664 2.9250 1426.8 1116.4 310.4

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Travis Wood 1.5317
1.3168
(210.1)
1.2210
(258.2)
1.3631
(173.7)
1.2711
(242.5)
Justin Verlander 1.3981
1.1649
(256.5)
1.1783
(214.1)
1.1947
(229.6)
1.1352
(279.3)
Carlos Carrasco 0.9851
1.4146
(198.6)
1.4406
(230.4)
1.3576
(168.6)
1.4744
(232.5)
Edwin Jackson 1.6422
1.3256
(234.6)
1.3603
(191.1)
1.3214
(237.1)
1.3299
(229.3)
Mike Minor 1.4381
1.2030
(184.2)
1.1787
(177.9)
1.2453
(157.0)
1.1613
(208.1)
Garrett Richards 1.0375
1.4246
(225.8)
1.3721
(213.2)
1.4178
(221.4)
1.4317
(233.4)
Jake Arrieta 0.9894
1.4214
(232.0)
1.3491
(208.6)
1.3837
(209.1)
1.4603
(258.5)
Jim Johnson 1.9500
1.2144
(207.7)
1.2312
(194.3)
1.2479
(198.8)
1.1806
(215.5)
Colby Lewis 1.5205
1.3238
(191.2)
1.2139
(248.9)
1.3398
(178.7)
1.3077
(200.2)
Dellin Betances 0.7778
1.6663
(284.5)
1.3758
(197.1)
1.4383
(206.9)
1.9235
(373.7)
Justin Masterson 1.6321
1.3105
(222.4)
1.2999
(208.5)
1.3303
(210.5)
1.2903
(231.9)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 1.3838 1.0216 190.8
2 Johnny Cueto 1.2123 0.9603 190.1
3 Robbie Ross Jr. 1.2644 1.6979 178.0
4 Tyler Matzek 1.7981 1.3938 176.1
5 Ricky Nolasco 1.3189 1.5157 174.4
6 Trevor Bauer 1.6932 1.3791 172.4
7 Franklin Morales 1.4156 1.6230 168.9
8 A.J. Burnett 1.2878 1.4087 163.7
9 Zack Britton 1.5295 0.9039 162.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 1.4696 1.0216 265.0
2 Dallas Keuchel 1.4683 1.1750 220.8
3 Félix Hernández 1.1743 0.9153 218.0
4 Franklin Morales 1.3306 1.6230 201.7
5 Jeff Samardzija 1.3013 1.0653 189.9
6 Corey Kluber 1.3135 1.0948 189.0
7 Edinson Volquez 1.4824 1.2301 187.9
8 Johnny Cueto 1.1713 0.9603 183.5
9 Phil Hughes 1.3588 1.1304 178.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Johnny Cueto 1.2507 0.9603 227.4
2 Franklin Morales 1.3525 1.6230 209.5
3 A.J. Burnett 1.2517 1.4087 197.1
4 Robbie Ross Jr. 1.2524 1.6979 182.2
5 Félix Hernández 1.1514 0.9153 166.4
6 Rex Brothers 1.2976 1.8462 164.4
7 Tyler Matzek 1.7685 1.3938 161.4
8 Zack Britton 1.5141 0.9039 158.6
9 Clayton Kershaw 1.1146 0.8571 152.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin McHugh 1.5076 1.0216 270.0
2 Trevor Bauer 1.8196 1.3791 259.0
3 Ricky Nolasco 1.2831 1.5157 196.4
4 Dallas Keuchel 1.4679 1.1750 196.4
5 Tyler Matzek 1.8270 1.3938 192.8
6 Danny Duffy 1.4468 1.1116 172.9
7 Robbie Ross Jr. 1.2769 1.6979 171.9
8 Zack Britton 1.5454 0.9039 168.6
9 Tanner Roark 1.3534 1.0923 168.5

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Scott Carroll 1.2572 1.5540 1.4845 141.7 8.8 132.9
2 Brett Oberholtzer 1.2125 1.4181 1.3782 115.7 8.9 106.8
3 Nick Martinez 1.2572 1.5680 1.4608 136.4 32.4 104.0
4 Jeff Samardzija 1.3013 1.2419 1.0653 189.9 107.7 82.2
5 Rick Porcello 1.3680 1.3106 1.2313 98.0 21.1 76.9
6 Collin McHugh 1.4696 1.3838 1.0216 265.0 190.8 74.2
7 Corey Kluber 1.3135 1.2705 1.0948 189.0 115.6 73.4
8 Jimmy Nelson 1.2343 1.5186 1.4567 75.4 2.4 73.0
9 Rubby De La Rosa 1.3368 1.5443 1.4852 74.3 2.2 72.1
10 Masahiro Tanaka 1.2572 1.1607 1.0562 98.1 27.3 70.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Hector Noesí 1.2851 1.4021 1.3694 101.2 15.8 85.4
2 Rubby De La Rosa 1.3734 1.5443 1.4852 73.0 2.2 70.8
3 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.2297 1.1577 1.0503 89.1 37.8 51.3
4 Clayton Kershaw 1.1146 1.0538 0.8571 152.6 106.8 45.8
5 Kyle Lohse 1.3172 1.2631 1.1496 93.0 48.5 44.5
6 Alfredo Simon 1.3419 1.2915 1.2071 66.3 24.8 41.5
7 Franklin Morales 1.3525 1.4156 1.6230 209.5 168.9 40.5
8 Jake Diekman 1.3446 1.4734 1.4225 41.2 1.0 40.2
9 Johnny Cueto 1.2507 1.2123 0.9603 227.4 190.1 37.3
10 Jordan Zimmermann 1.2262 1.1817 1.0718 80.5 44.6 35.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Scott Carroll 1.2572 1.5540 1.4845 158.9 8.8 150.1
2 Nick Martinez 1.2572 1.5680 1.4608 154.7 32.4 122.3
3 Dellin Betances 1.9235 1.6663 0.7778 373.7 284.5 89.1
4 Trevor Bauer 1.8196 1.6932 1.3791 259.0 172.4 86.6
5 Rubby De La Rosa 1.7322 1.5443 1.4852 86.9 2.2 84.7
6 Collin McHugh 1.5076 1.3838 1.0216 270.0 190.8 79.2
7 Hector Noesí 1.5263 1.4021 1.3694 78.4 15.8 62.6
8 Jered Weaver 1.1259 1.1990 1.2094 118.4 57.3 61.1
9 Chase Whitley 1.2572 1.4300 1.4802 90.1 34.4 55.6
10 Tim Hudson 1.2083 1.2718 1.2306 57.0 10.2 46.8