2021 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2021, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adolis García 238 622 384.5
2 Alcides Escobar 1 349 348.0
3 Ronald Acuña Jr. 683 360 322.7
4 Pavin Smith 230 545 314.8
5 Cody Bellinger 643 350 293.1
6 Kyle Farmer 238 529 291.5
7 Ketel Marte 652 374 278.3
8 George Springer 620 342 278.3
9 Tyler Naquin 180 454 273.7
10 Josh Harrison 286 558 272.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jonathan India 100 631 531.0
2 Mitch Haniger 227 691 464.0
3 Adolis García 205 622 417.0
4 Bo Bichette 295 690 395.0
5 Salvador Perez 276 665 389.0
6 Cedric Mullins 287 675 388.0
7 Nathaniel Lowe 259 642 383.0
8 Myles Straw 259 638 379.0
9 Andrew Vaughn 100 469 369.0
10 Akil Baddoo 100 461 361.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kyle Seager 100 670 570.0
2 César Hernández 100 637 537.0
3 Nelson Cruz 100 584 484.0
4 Adolis García 149 622 473.0
5 Eric Hosmer 100 565 465.0
6 Josh Donaldson 100 543 443.0
7 Pavin Smith 112 545 433.0
8 Miguel Cabrera 100 526 426.0
9 Jed Lowrie 100 512 412.0
10 Michael Brantley 100 508 408.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adolis García 106 622 516.5
2 Pavin Smith 99 545 446.5
3 Odúbel Herrera 92 492 400.2
4 Eric Haase 1 381 380.0
5 Tyler Naquin 76 454 378.2
6 Patrick Wisdom 1 375 374.0
7 Phil Gosselin 6 373 366.5
8 Kyle Farmer 164 529 365.5
9 Rougned Odor 1 361 360.0
10 Alcides Escobar 1 349 348.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ronald Acuña Jr. 672 360 312.0
2 Cody Bellinger 648 350 298.0
3 Ketel Marte 635 374 261.0
4 Mitch Haniger 430 691 261.0
5 Alcides Escobar 100 349 249.0
6 Alex Bregman 649 400 249.0
7 Jake Bauers 559 315 244.0
8 Starlin Castro 587 346 241.0
9 Kevin Pillar 587 347 240.0
10 George Springer 577 342 235.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jonathan India 100 498 631 531.0 133.2 397.8
2 Randy Arozarena 245 571 604 359.0 33.1 325.9
3 Bo Bichette 295 617 690 395.0 72.9 322.1
4 Ozzie Albies 342 648 686 344.0 38.1 305.9
5 Andrew Vaughn 100 535 469 369.0 65.6 303.4
6 Mitch Haniger 227 518 691 464.0 172.6 291.4
7 Dylan Carlson 269 560 619 350.0 58.9 291.1
8 Ryan Mountcastle 278 568 586 308.0 18.1 289.9
9 Giancarlo Stanton 252 541 579 327.0 37.7 289.3
10 Trey Mancini 268 555 616 348.0 61.2 286.8

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 César Hernández 100 607 637 537.0 30.0 507.0
2 Kyle Seager 100 576 670 570.0 93.8 476.2
3 Nelson Cruz 100 527 584 484.0 56.7 427.3
4 Josh Donaldson 100 525 543 443.0 18.3 424.7
5 Eric Hosmer 100 608 565 465.0 43.3 421.7
6 Miguel Cabrera 100 542 526 426.0 16.0 410.0
7 Buster Posey 100 436 454 354.0 18.1 335.9
8 Michael Brantley 100 582 508 408.0 73.7 334.3
9 Jonathan Villar 100 430 505 405.0 74.8 330.2
10 Yadier Molina 100 401 473 373.0 71.7 301.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Rafael Ortega 85 305 330 245.3 24.7 220.7
2 Patrick Wisdom 1 218 375 374.0 156.5 217.5
3 Odúbel Herrera 92 306 492 400.2 185.6 214.6
4 Rougned Odor 1 215 361 360.0 146.3 213.7
5 Trevor Larnach 20 203 301 281.3 97.8 183.5
6 Josh VanMeter 84 267 310 226.2 43.1 183.1
7 Phil Gosselin 6 184 373 366.5 189.3 177.3
8 Matt Duffy 13 189 322 308.6 132.5 176.1
9 Edmundo Sosa 62 235 326 264.4 90.8 173.6
10 Billy McKinney 20 192 300 280.2 108.1 172.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kevin Pillar 587 373 347 240.0 26.3 213.7
2 Rafael Ortega 526 305 330 196.0 24.7 171.3
3 Jake Bauers 559 399 315 244.0 83.7 160.3
4 Yonathan Daza 535 284 331 204.0 47.2 156.8
5 Austin Slater 452 308 306 146.0 1.7 144.3
6 Trevor Larnach 531 203 301 230.0 97.8 132.2
7 DJ Stewart 474 345 318 156.0 27.3 128.7
8 Asdrúbal Cabrera 500 381 352 148.0 28.5 119.5
9 Edmundo Sosa 531 235 326 205.0 90.8 114.2
10 Wander Franco 534 428 308 226.0 120.3 105.7

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Mike Zunino 0.1634
0.0826
(30.7)
0.0692
(35.4)
0.0818
(31.5)
0.0802
(31.7)
0.0859
(29.3)
Gleyber Torres 0.0249
0.0773
(26.5)
0.0717
(24.1)
0.0758
(25.1)
0.0742
(24.7)
0.0819
(29.1)
Shohei Ohtani 0.1314
0.0800
(33.5)
0.0701
(39.3)
0.0823
(32.9)
0.0816
(32.7)
0.0761
(35.8)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.0968
0.0603
(26.2)
0.0464
(35.3)
0.0619
(26.0)
0.0614
(25.6)
0.0576
(27.7)
Marcus Semien 0.0884
0.0531
(26.3)
0.0464
(30.5)
0.0507
(29.0)
0.0502
(28.7)
0.0585
(22.1)
Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1277
0.0878
(22.3)
0.0823
(24.9)
0.0884
(22.7)
0.0895
(21.6)
0.0854
(23.4)
Christian Yelich 0.0311
0.0849
(25.0)
0.0917
(28.7)
0.0855
(24.7)
0.0842
(24.5)
0.0849
(25.2)
Salvador Perez 0.1057
0.0724
(22.8)
0.0707
(23.4)
0.0721
(23.9)
0.0729
(22.8)
0.0723
(22.6)
Avisaíl García 0.0841
0.0485
(18.9)
0.0500
(17.6)
0.0508
(18.3)
0.0504
(18.1)
0.0443
(20.8)
Jorge Polanco 0.0693
0.0367
(21.7)
0.0352
(22.1)
0.0374
(22.0)
0.0376
(21.3)
0.0351
(22.4)
Joey Votto 0.1108
0.0510
(32.4)
0.0418
(36.8)
0.0565
(30.1)
0.0551
(30.4)
0.0417
(37.2)
Patrick Wisdom 0.1505
0.0680
(31.4)
0.0538
(36.3)
0.0545
(36.9)
0.0661
(32.2)
0.0698
(30.5)
Cedric Mullins 0.0621
0.0335
(20.0)
0.0352
(18.3)
0.0344
(20.3)
0.0351
(19.2)
0.0311
(21.3)
Adam Duvall 0.1111
0.0777
(19.1)
0.0784
(18.2)
0.0768
(20.3)
0.0785
(18.9)
0.0776
(18.9)
Brandon Belt 0.1300
0.0539
(29.4)
0.0487
(31.1)
0.0548
(29.5)
0.0561
(28.7)
0.0508
(30.4)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 LaMonte Wade Jr. 0.0234 0.0709 18.5
2 Brandon Lowe 0.0761 0.1051 18.5
3 Ryan Mountcastle 0.0581 0.0868 17.5
4 Buster Posey 0.0211 0.0581 17.3
5 Seth Brown 0.0482 0.1031 17.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler O'Neill 0.0645 0.1069 22.9
2 Adolis García 0.0441 0.0793 22.0
3 Ryan Mountcastle 0.0526 0.0868 20.1
4 Seth Brown 0.0429 0.1031 18.5
5 Robbie Grossman 0.0300 0.0561 17.6

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Lowe 0.0738 0.1051 20.7
2 Andrelton Simmons 0.0545 0.0085 19.7
3 Seth Brown 0.0451 0.1031 18.5
4 LaMonte Wade Jr. 0.0248 0.0709 18.4
5 Kyle Seager 0.0545 0.0785 17.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Lowe 0.0733 0.1051 20.4
2 Seth Brown 0.0456 0.1031 18.1
3 LaMonte Wade Jr. 0.0255 0.0709 17.8
4 Ryan Mountcastle 0.0595 0.0868 16.9
5 Cody Bellinger 0.0915 0.0446 15.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1333 0.0983 19.9
2 Matt Olson 0.1140 0.0842 19.6
3 LaMonte Wade Jr. 0.0201 0.0709 19.6
4 Buster Posey 0.0174 0.0581 18.7
5 Miguel Sanó 0.1399 0.1042 18.7

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Joey Gallo 0.1099 0.1329 0.1329 14.3 0.6 13.6
2 Myles Straw 0.0284 0.0104 0.0089 12.3 0.3 12.1
3 Adolis García 0.0441 0.0611 0.0793 22.0 11.9 10.0
4 Kyle Schwarber 0.0833 0.1051 0.1168 15.8 6.0 9.8
5 Eric Haase 0.0504 0.0766 0.0940 16.7 7.0 9.7
6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.0464 0.0603 0.0968 35.3 26.2 9.1
7 Tyler O'Neill 0.0645 0.0815 0.1069 22.9 14.2 8.6
8 Bryce Harper 0.0815 0.0962 0.0972 9.5 1.3 8.2
9 Rhys Hoskins 0.0721 0.0905 0.0954 10.4 2.6 7.8
10 Edmundo Sosa 0.0507 0.0282 0.0262 7.9 0.3 7.6

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Andrelton Simmons 0.0545 0.0188 0.0085 19.7 4.2 15.5
2 Alcides Escobar 0.0545 0.0173 0.0150 13.0 0.4 12.5
3 Yadier Molina 0.0545 0.0294 0.0301 10.4 0.9 9.5
4 Phil Gosselin 0.0545 0.0252 0.0264 9.6 0.8 8.8
5 Josh Donaldson 0.0545 0.0820 0.0741 11.9 3.7 8.2
6 Justin Upton 0.0545 0.0845 0.0791 9.7 1.6 8.2
7 Michael Brantley 0.0545 0.0379 0.0192 16.8 9.0 7.8
8 Ronald Torreyes 0.0545 0.0206 0.0247 9.4 1.8 7.7
9 Guillermo Heredia 0.0545 0.0327 0.0222 10.4 3.3 7.1
10 Juan Lagares 0.0545 0.0201 0.0252 8.8 2.0 6.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Maikel Franco 0.0629 0.0531 0.0351 10.6 6.8 3.8
2 Joey Gallo 0.1274 0.1329 0.1329 4.2 0.6 3.6
3 Jarred Kelenic 0.0505 0.0575 0.0603 4.2 1.5 2.7
4 Max Muncy 0.0833 0.0871 0.0952 7.9 5.4 2.5
5 Marcus Semien 0.0502 0.0531 0.0884 28.7 26.3 2.4
6 Carlos Santana 0.0571 0.0534 0.0406 10.0 7.8 2.2
7 Enrique Hernández 0.0583 0.0544 0.0494 4.4 2.3 2.1
8 Brandon Lowe 0.0733 0.0761 0.1051 20.4 18.5 2.0
9 Trea Turner 0.0459 0.0484 0.0573 8.3 6.4 1.9
10 Eric Hosmer 0.0561 0.0524 0.0291 14.5 12.6 1.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alcides Escobar 0.0545 0.0173 0.0150 13.6 0.4 13.1
2 Teoscar Hernández 0.1101 0.0944 0.0792 18.0 8.4 9.6
3 Miguel Sanó 0.1399 0.1264 0.1042 18.7 11.3 7.4
4 Matt Olson 0.1140 0.1038 0.0842 19.6 12.4 7.2
5 Nelson Cruz 0.1081 0.0993 0.0800 16.1 10.7 5.4
6 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 0.0680 0.0580 0.0556 6.0 0.7 5.3
7 Matt Chapman 0.0934 0.0858 0.0804 7.7 2.7 5.0
8 Aaron Judge 0.1231 0.1159 0.0982 15.4 10.5 4.9
9 Jorge Soler 0.1000 0.0924 0.0698 17.8 13.0 4.9
10 Joey Gallo 0.1422 0.1329 0.1329 5.4 0.6 4.8

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Starling Marte 0.2956
0.1525
(77.4)
0.1667
(68.9)
0.1405
(83.4)
0.1421
(82.1)
0.1748
(67.3)
Austin Slater 0.2055
0.0919
(36.0)
0.0972
(33.7)
0.0835
(38.4)
0.0853
(37.5)
0.1066
(32.5)
David Fletcher 0.0915
0.0485
(31.3)
0.0377
(37.1)
0.0472
(31.7)
0.0465
(31.6)
0.0520
(31.0)
Tommy Edman 0.1911
0.1005
(65.5)
0.0909
(70.6)
0.1012
(64.5)
0.1016
(63.6)
0.0986
(68.8)
Jonathan Villar 0.1129
0.2380
(61.1)
0.2128
(49.4)
0.0532
(31.9)
0.2072
(46.4)
0.2690
(75.2)
Nicky Lopez 0.1272
0.0612
(39.6)
0.0260
(58.3)
0.0655
(36.8)
0.0660
(36.0)
0.0519
(46.6)
Whit Merrifield 0.2312
0.1498
(61.6)
0.1442
(64.1)
0.1371
(70.2)
0.1395
(67.9)
0.1728
(47.2)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 0.2072
0.1234
(44.6)
0.0755
(67.8)
0.1079
(52.1)
0.1124
(49.3)
0.1505
(32.4)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dylan Carlson 0.0915 0.0126 46.3
2 Josh Rojas 0.1409 0.0643 39.9
3 Ozzie Albies 0.0999 0.1471 35.2
4 Eddie Rosario 0.0436 0.1236 34.6
5 Shohei Ohtani 0.1158 0.1646 33.8
6 Rougned Odor 0.0972 0.0000 33.6
7 J.P. Crawford 0.0681 0.0161 32.9
8 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0230 0.0670 32.7
9 Austin Meadows 0.0880 0.0315 31.0
10 Gregory Polanco 0.0924 0.1687 30.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cedric Mullins 0.0909 0.1765 59.1
2 Adolis García 0.0435 0.1345 57.8
3 Akil Baddoo 0.0532 0.1607 50.5
4 Ozzie Albies 0.0897 0.1471 40.7
5 Dylan Moore 0.1644 0.2658 39.0
6 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1340 0.1984 36.3
7 Bo Bichette 0.0909 0.1412 36.1
8 Gleyber Torres 0.0349 0.1007 35.0
9 Gregory Polanco 0.0794 0.1687 34.9
10 J.P. Crawford 0.0667 0.0161 33.3

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dylan Carlson 0.0909 0.0126 46.4
2 Gregory Polanco 0.0532 0.1687 45.4
3 Ozzie Albies 0.0902 0.1471 41.4
4 Josh Rojas 0.1396 0.0643 39.5
5 Shohei Ohtani 0.1086 0.1646 37.9
6 J.P. Crawford 0.0726 0.0161 36.4
7 Eddie Rosario 0.0386 0.1236 36.4
8 Rougned Odor 0.1027 0.0000 35.8
9 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0190 0.0670 34.9
10 Tyler O'Neill 0.0581 0.1181 34.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dylan Carlson 0.0914 0.0126 47.2
2 Josh Rojas 0.1434 0.0643 42.1
3 Ozzie Albies 0.0896 0.1471 41.2
4 Shohei Ohtani 0.1073 0.1646 38.2
5 Eddie Rosario 0.0368 0.1236 36.8
6 J.P. Crawford 0.0715 0.0161 36.3
7 Gregory Polanco 0.0788 0.1687 35.3
8 Rougned Odor 0.0983 0.0000 34.6
9 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0196 0.0670 33.9
10 Tyler O'Neill 0.0593 0.1181 32.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bo Bichette 0.2250 0.1412 52.9
2 Myles Straw 0.2406 0.1596 47.1
3 Dylan Carlson 0.0924 0.0126 45.0
4 Josh Rojas 0.1395 0.0643 37.5
5 Mookie Betts 0.1404 0.0680 35.9
6 Jake Cronenworth 0.0853 0.0258 33.6
7 Michael A. Taylor 0.1791 0.1102 32.6
8 Kris Bryant 0.0199 0.0676 32.1
9 Jose Altuve 0.0833 0.0289 32.1
10 Kyle Tucker 0.1678 0.1053 31.4

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adolis García 0.0435 0.1134 0.1345 57.8 15.7 42.2
2 Cedric Mullins 0.0909 0.1548 0.1765 59.1 17.4 41.7
3 Akil Baddoo 0.0532 0.1156 0.1607 50.5 22.7 27.8
4 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 0.0755 0.1234 0.2072 67.8 44.6 23.2
5 Nicky Lopez 0.0260 0.0612 0.1272 58.3 39.6 18.7
6 Tyler Stephenson 0.0577 0.0147 0.0000 22.4 4.2 18.1
7 Willi Castro 0.0278 0.0674 0.0978 32.4 15.5 16.9
8 Bo Bichette 0.0909 0.1743 0.1412 36.1 20.0 16.2
9 Randy Arozarena 0.1000 0.1287 0.1250 16.3 0.3 16.1
10 Garrett Hampson 0.1316 0.1690 0.1635 16.7 0.7 16.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Miguel Cabrera 0.0532 0.0094 0.0000 26.2 2.8 23.4
2 Jed Lowrie 0.0532 0.0140 0.0000 25.5 5.1 20.4
3 Josh Donaldson 0.0532 0.0178 0.0000 27.0 7.4 19.6
4 Maikel Franco 0.0532 0.0117 0.0000 20.1 3.0 17.0
5 Buster Posey 0.0532 0.0169 0.0000 22.6 5.8 16.8
6 Rafael Ortega 0.0532 0.1013 0.1319 27.1 11.4 15.7
7 Gregory Polanco 0.0532 0.0924 0.1687 45.4 30.7 14.7
8 Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.0532 0.0120 0.0122 13.2 1.5 11.7
9 Kyle Seager 0.0532 0.0365 0.0238 17.4 5.7 11.7
10 Bradley Zimmer 0.1056 0.1381 0.1579 19.4 8.3 11.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Bradley Zimmer 0.1031 0.1381 0.1579 20.0 8.3 11.6
2 Akil Baddoo 0.0950 0.1156 0.1607 31.4 22.7 8.8
3 Andrew Vaughn 0.0472 0.0309 0.0093 16.6 8.2 8.4
4 Jed Lowrie 0.0275 0.0140 0.0000 12.8 5.1 7.7
5 Whit Merrifield 0.1395 0.1498 0.2312 67.9 61.6 6.3
6 José Ramírez 0.1403 0.1517 0.1765 24.6 18.4 6.2
7 Ozzie Albies 0.0896 0.0999 0.1471 41.2 35.2 6.0
8 Teoscar Hernández 0.0702 0.0811 0.0828 9.0 3.4 5.5
9 Garrett Hampson 0.1539 0.1690 0.1635 6.0 0.7 5.2
10 Austin Hays 0.0945 0.0868 0.0364 29.4 24.5 4.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Bo Bichette 0.2250 0.1743 0.1412 52.9 20.0 32.9
2 Trea Turner 0.2331 0.1985 0.1808 29.2 8.8 20.4
3 Myles Straw 0.2406 0.2073 0.1596 47.1 27.8 19.3
4 Tommy Pham 0.1486 0.1148 0.0933 27.0 9.7 17.3
5 Michael A. Taylor 0.1791 0.1470 0.1102 32.6 17.3 15.3
6 Jonathan Villar 0.2690 0.2380 0.1129 75.2 61.1 14.1
7 Garrett Hampson 0.2000 0.1690 0.1635 14.5 0.7 13.8
8 Kyle Tucker 0.1678 0.1414 0.1053 31.4 18.1 13.3
9 Xander Bogaerts 0.0807 0.0586 0.0303 26.1 14.6 11.5
10 Trevor Story 0.1837 0.1632 0.1504 15.6 5.2 10.4

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Mike Zunino 0.1707
0.1070
(22.9)
0.1037
(25.1)
0.1130
(21.6)
0.1091
(21.5)
0.0989
(26.0)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.1762
0.1395
(23.8)
0.1183
(40.4)
0.1438
(22.7)
0.1466
(17.8)
0.1281
(31.9)
Gleyber Torres 0.0969
0.1438
(25.6)
0.1318
(18.0)
0.1461
(25.4)
0.1420
(25.4)
0.1431
(25.1)
Brandon Crawford 0.1439
0.1012
(22.0)
0.1124
(17.3)
0.0985
(25.0)
0.1003
(21.6)
0.1047
(20.2)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jonathan India 0.1085 0.1553 27.8
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1523 0.1105 25.8
3 Bo Bichette 0.1405 0.1754 22.2
4 Tyler O'Neill 0.1231 0.1657 21.5
5 DJ LeMahieu 0.1524 0.1237 21.3
6 Starling Marte 0.1269 0.1692 20.8
7 Buster Posey 0.1012 0.1498 20.8
8 Didi Gregorius 0.1312 0.0858 19.6
9 Dominic Smith 0.1243 0.0872 19.6
10 Alcides Escobar 0.0930 0.1519 19.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bo Bichette 0.1356 0.1754 27.4
2 Carlos Correa 0.1210 0.1625 26.5
3 Carlos Santana 0.1388 0.1002 25.5
4 DJ LeMahieu 0.1599 0.1237 24.6
5 Dominic Smith 0.1354 0.0872 23.8
6 Didi Gregorius 0.1425 0.0858 23.1
7 Gio Urshela 0.1407 0.0950 20.2
8 Brett Gardner 0.1446 0.1020 19.7
9 José Ramírez 0.1444 0.1745 19.2
10 Buster Posey 0.1079 0.1498 19.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bo Bichette 0.1313 0.1754 30.5
2 Jonathan India 0.1105 0.1553 28.4
3 Tyler O'Neill 0.1166 0.1657 26.4
4 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1547 0.1105 25.5
5 Starling Marte 0.1218 0.1692 25.0
6 DJ LeMahieu 0.1599 0.1237 24.5
7 Cody Bellinger 0.1764 0.1114 22.7
8 Brandon Lowe 0.1213 0.1577 22.5
9 Michael Conforto 0.1550 0.1086 22.2
10 Joey Wendle 0.1018 0.1457 22.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1524 0.1105 26.7
2 Jonathan India 0.1090 0.1553 26.6
3 Tyler O'Neill 0.1172 0.1657 23.8
4 Starling Marte 0.1232 0.1692 22.0
5 Chris Taylor 0.1175 0.1581 21.2
6 Tim Anderson 0.1280 0.1706 21.2
7 Wander Franco 0.1017 0.1721 20.4
8 Maikel Franco 0.1222 0.0769 19.9
9 Carlos Santana 0.1258 0.1002 19.7
10 Jake Cronenworth 0.1118 0.1462 19.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jonathan India 0.1060 0.1553 29.6
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1499 0.1105 24.2
3 Buster Posey 0.0956 0.1498 23.5
4 Didi Gregorius 0.1398 0.0858 23.0
5 DJ LeMahieu 0.1538 0.1237 22.1
6 Bo Bichette 0.1413 0.1754 21.9
7 Carlos Santana 0.1293 0.1002 20.8
8 Dominic Smith 0.1257 0.0872 20.1
9 Brett Gardner 0.1422 0.1020 19.7
10 Nicky Lopez 0.1019 0.1381 19.1

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.1183 0.1395 0.1762 40.4 23.8 16.7
2 Bryce Harper 0.1462 0.1625 0.1686 13.4 2.1 11.4
3 Carlos Correa 0.1210 0.1359 0.1625 26.5 15.3 11.2
4 Freddie Freeman 0.1537 0.1646 0.1727 13.2 3.8 9.4
5 Kyle Schwarber 0.1307 0.1462 0.1614 14.4 5.9 8.5
6 Matt Olson 0.1257 0.1352 0.1501 16.4 8.2 8.2
7 Carlos Santana 0.1388 0.1242 0.1002 25.5 17.6 7.9
8 Jose Trevino 0.1260 0.0983 0.0762 15.1 7.5 7.6
9 Ryan Mountcastle 0.1079 0.1180 0.1314 13.7 6.3 7.5
10 Manny Machado 0.1298 0.1443 0.1437 8.9 2.1 6.9

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yadier Molina 0.1289 0.0939 0.0951 15.9 0.7 15.3
2 Miguel Cabrera 0.1289 0.1044 0.0913 19.8 8.3 11.4
3 Jed Lowrie 0.1289 0.1023 0.1074 11.0 1.3 9.7
4 Pedro Severino 0.1289 0.1037 0.0764 22.0 12.6 9.4
5 Bo Bichette 0.1313 0.1405 0.1754 30.5 22.2 8.3
6 Ronald Torreyes 0.1289 0.1026 0.0872 14.3 6.2 8.1
7 Phil Gosselin 0.1289 0.1039 0.1072 8.0 0.3 7.8
8 Jonathan Schoop 0.1137 0.1218 0.1261 8.4 1.1 7.3
9 Manny Machado 0.1577 0.1443 0.1437 8.8 2.1 6.8
10 Joey Votto 0.1546 0.1395 0.1370 9.4 2.8 6.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Miguel Cabrera 0.1194 0.1044 0.0913 17.0 8.3 8.7
2 Maikel Franco 0.1222 0.1106 0.0769 19.9 14.6 5.3
3 Jorge Soler 0.1323 0.1250 0.1229 8.1 2.9 5.3
4 Max Muncy 0.1424 0.1522 0.1605 8.3 3.3 4.9
5 Juan Lagares 0.0982 0.1144 0.1193 5.5 0.7 4.8
6 Tim Anderson 0.1280 0.1382 0.1706 21.2 16.4 4.8
7 Josh Donaldson 0.1433 0.1360 0.1344 7.1 2.3 4.7
8 Chris Taylor 0.1175 0.1265 0.1581 21.2 16.8 4.3
9 Yadier Molina 0.1008 0.0939 0.0951 4.7 0.7 4.0
10 Ozzie Albies 0.1390 0.1488 0.1501 4.8 0.9 3.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Miguel Sanó 0.1589 0.1420 0.1278 17.8 9.0 8.8
2 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.1281 0.1395 0.1762 31.9 23.8 8.2
3 Harrison Bader 0.1386 0.1190 0.1122 11.5 3.8 7.7
4 J.D. Martinez 0.1291 0.1401 0.1451 8.6 1.5 7.2
5 Tucker Barnhart 0.0819 0.0999 0.1057 8.3 1.2 7.1
6 Ozzie Albies 0.1593 0.1488 0.1501 7.9 0.9 7.0
7 Jesse Winker 0.1259 0.1386 0.1588 14.8 8.5 6.3
8 Nick Ahmed 0.1227 0.1097 0.0973 13.2 7.2 6.0
9 Salvador Perez 0.1091 0.1177 0.1323 13.8 8.0 5.9
10 Manny Machado 0.1292 0.1443 0.1437 7.8 2.1 5.7

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Freddie Freeman 0.1194
0.1610
(26.7)
0.1587
(27.9)
0.1520
(21.3)
0.1533
(22.8)
0.1776
(35.7)
Gleyber Torres 0.0988
0.1658
(32.9)
0.1375
(20.4)
0.1634
(32.2)
0.1556
(28.7)
0.1785
(37.6)
Avisaíl García 0.1670
0.1226
(24.5)
0.1183
(24.6)
0.1247
(22.8)
0.1213
(24.1)
0.1219
(26.7)
Joey Votto 0.1857
0.1038
(45.4)
0.0967
(47.0)
0.1134
(39.6)
0.1100
(40.9)
0.0881
(55.7)
Austin Meadows 0.1794
0.1275
(32.5)
0.1261
(30.9)
0.1282
(31.4)
0.1241
(33.3)
0.1303
(33.0)
Nick Castellanos 0.1709
0.1348
(23.0)
0.1214
(28.4)
0.1338
(22.9)
0.1337
(22.4)
0.1367
(24.0)
Adam Duvall 0.2036
0.1386
(37.8)
0.1401
(34.7)
0.1314
(41.2)
0.1392
(36.3)
0.1451
(36.2)
Brandon Crawford 0.1639
0.1123
(30.1)
0.1095
(29.4)
0.1053
(33.3)
0.1089
(30.8)
0.1225
(26.5)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cody Bellinger 0.1828 0.1029 26.9
2 Teoscar Hernández 0.1545 0.1950 26.0
3 Jesús Aguilar 0.1358 0.1824 25.3
4 LaMonte Wade Jr. 0.0852 0.1470 24.8
5 Jorge Polanco 0.1170 0.1522 24.7
6 Juan Soto 0.1846 0.1453 23.6
7 Bryan Reynolds 0.1088 0.1393 21.8
8 Andrew Benintendi 0.1001 0.1357 20.9
9 Victor Robles 0.1097 0.0515 20.3
10 DJ LeMahieu 0.1169 0.0839 20.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Teoscar Hernández 0.1314 0.1950 37.2
2 DJ LeMahieu 0.1301 0.0839 32.0
3 Jorge Polanco 0.1114 0.1522 25.7
4 Ozzie Albies 0.1199 0.1545 23.1
5 Nick Ahmed 0.1274 0.0803 22.7
6 J.P. Crawford 0.1105 0.0786 22.6
7 Franmil Reyes 0.1335 0.1824 22.4
8 Salvador Perez 0.1486 0.1820 21.6
9 Tommy Edman 0.1099 0.0810 20.6
10 Victor Robles 0.1063 0.0515 20.6

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jesús Aguilar 0.1217 0.1824 32.0
2 Teoscar Hernández 0.1500 0.1950 28.0
3 Cody Bellinger 0.1808 0.1029 26.6
4 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.1261 0.0678 24.1
5 Andrelton Simmons 0.1236 0.0687 23.8
6 Salvador Perez 0.1496 0.1820 22.9
7 LaMonte Wade Jr. 0.0910 0.1470 22.1
8 Adolis García 0.1114 0.1447 22.0
9 Andrew Benintendi 0.0976 0.1357 21.6
10 Matt Chapman 0.1524 0.1158 21.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Teoscar Hernández 0.1465 0.1950 29.5
2 Jesús Aguilar 0.1303 0.1824 27.1
3 Cody Bellinger 0.1779 0.1029 25.9
4 Jorge Polanco 0.1148 0.1522 24.8
5 Victor Robles 0.1151 0.0515 23.1
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.1200 0.0678 21.9
7 Marcus Semien 0.1121 0.1409 21.6
8 Michael Brantley 0.1357 0.0925 21.4
9 Elvis Andrus 0.1073 0.0684 20.5
10 LaMonte Wade Jr. 0.0947 0.1470 20.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Juan Soto 0.2203 0.1453 44.6
2 LaMonte Wade Jr. 0.0698 0.1470 32.0
3 Gary Sánchez 0.1964 0.1227 29.4
4 Jorge Polanco 0.1134 0.1522 29.4
5 Cody Bellinger 0.1898 0.1029 28.1
6 Eric Hosmer 0.1687 0.1150 26.5
7 Bryan Reynolds 0.1056 0.1393 26.1
8 Chas McCormick 0.0855 0.1562 24.8
9 Bobby Dalbec 0.1255 0.1722 24.2
10 Andrew Benintendi 0.0978 0.1357 24.1

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.1311 0.1612 0.1590 18.8 0.7 18.1
2 J.P. Crawford 0.1105 0.0934 0.0786 22.6 8.0 14.5
3 Bo Bichette 0.1254 0.1496 0.1478 14.8 0.9 13.9
4 Tommy Edman 0.1099 0.0954 0.0810 20.6 7.7 12.8
5 Myles Straw 0.0965 0.0748 0.0752 14.2 2.3 11.9
6 C.J. Cron 0.1387 0.1644 0.1682 15.6 3.8 11.8
7 DJ LeMahieu 0.1301 0.1169 0.0839 32.0 20.2 11.7
8 Teoscar Hernández 0.1314 0.1545 0.1950 37.2 26.0 11.3
9 Austin Riley 0.1370 0.1577 0.1616 15.7 4.7 11.0
10 Aaron Judge 0.1325 0.1621 0.1548 13.6 2.6 11.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jonathan Villar 0.1236 0.0968 0.0832 19.4 5.3 14.1
2 Alcides Escobar 0.1236 0.0890 0.0802 14.4 2.0 12.5
3 Kyle Seager 0.1236 0.1413 0.1507 19.6 8.5 11.1
4 J.D. Martinez 0.1774 0.1625 0.1562 12.2 2.0 10.2
5 Andrelton Simmons 0.1236 0.1026 0.0687 23.8 13.8 10.0
6 Mike Yastrzemski 0.0959 0.1149 0.1335 21.1 11.6 9.5
7 Guillermo Heredia 0.1236 0.1001 0.0749 16.2 7.6 8.5
8 Max Muncy 0.1379 0.1525 0.1588 13.6 5.6 8.0
9 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1410 0.1551 0.1777 21.1 14.0 7.1
10 Rhys Hoskins 0.1350 0.1522 0.1603 12.1 5.0 7.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Bo Bichette 0.1244 0.1496 0.1478 16.9 0.9 16.0
2 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.0955 0.0823 0.0783 11.0 0.6 10.4
3 Marcus Semien 0.1121 0.1272 0.1409 21.6 12.2 9.4
4 Max Muncy 0.1347 0.1525 0.1588 14.9 5.6 9.3
5 José Abreu 0.1556 0.1699 0.1775 15.2 7.1 8.0
6 Luis Arraez 0.1029 0.0920 0.0877 6.8 0.5 6.3
7 Andrew McCutchen 0.1099 0.1228 0.1394 17.5 11.3 6.2
8 Pavin Smith 0.1158 0.1070 0.0899 13.5 7.6 6.0
9 Nicky Lopez 0.0906 0.0822 0.0761 7.6 1.6 5.9
10 Kyle Seager 0.1304 0.1413 0.1507 14.3 8.5 5.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Juan Soto 0.2203 0.1846 0.1453 44.6 23.6 21.0
2 Jonathan India 0.0820 0.1033 0.1094 21.6 5.8 15.7
3 Bryce Harper 0.1844 0.1592 0.1402 22.4 9.5 12.9
4 Carlos Correa 0.1791 0.1557 0.1437 18.3 5.6 12.7
5 Myles Straw 0.0586 0.0748 0.0752 15.0 2.3 12.7
6 Bo Bichette 0.1743 0.1496 0.1478 13.6 0.9 12.6
7 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.0660 0.0823 0.0783 12.9 0.6 12.3
8 Will Smith 0.1912 0.1645 0.1517 16.4 4.8 11.6
9 Alcides Escobar 0.1236 0.0890 0.0802 12.7 2.0 10.8
10 Joey Votto 0.0881 0.1038 0.1857 55.7 45.4 10.3

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Austin Riley 0.3034
0.2491
(34.3)
0.2379
(44.4)
0.2534
(30.7)
0.2555
(30.1)
0.2387
(42.5)
Bryce Harper 0.3094
0.2549
(31.2)
0.2547
(33.8)
0.2515
(32.6)
0.2543
(31.6)
0.2588
(30.0)
Adam Frazier 0.3050
0.2643
(24.5)
0.2625
(28.2)
0.2623
(25.0)
0.2647
(24.2)
0.2659
(24.6)
Yuli Gurriel 0.3189
0.2658
(30.6)
0.2751
(27.4)
0.2685
(28.3)
0.2702
(28.0)
0.2587
(36.0)
Tyler O'Neill 0.2863
0.2292
(29.3)
0.2333
(29.3)
0.2278
(29.5)
0.2328
(27.4)
0.2272
(31.5)
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.1628
0.2281
(29.0)
0.2406
(32.6)
0.2254
(28.3)
0.2256
(27.9)
0.2333
(30.4)
Cody Bellinger 0.1651
0.2752
(39.4)
0.2711
(36.6)
0.2756
(39.9)
0.2772
(40.1)
0.2727
(37.9)
Eugenio Suárez 0.1980
0.2431
(27.3)
0.2590
(34.1)
0.2406
(26.5)
0.2419
(26.6)
0.2467
(28.2)
Cedric Mullins 0.2907
0.2423
(31.0)
0.2374
(37.1)
0.2390
(32.5)
0.2429
(30.6)
0.2452
(30.3)
Teoscar Hernández 0.2964
0.2413
(31.3)
0.2468
(30.4)
0.2366
(33.5)
0.2398
(32.2)
0.2474
(28.8)
Brandon Crawford 0.2981
0.2372
(32.1)
0.2452
(30.0)
0.2340
(33.3)
0.2392
(31.0)
0.2385
(32.4)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryan Reynolds 0.2570 0.3023 27.7
2 Akil Baddoo 0.1970 0.2591 27.5
3 Nick Castellanos 0.2603 0.3089 27.0
4 Andrelton Simmons 0.2774 0.2233 25.5
5 Didi Gregorius 0.2673 0.2092 24.7
6 Kevin Newman 0.2676 0.2263 24.2
7 Matt Chapman 0.2461 0.2098 24.1
8 Nicky Lopez 0.2555 0.2998 23.7
9 Trea Turner 0.2887 0.3277 23.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nicky Lopez 0.2340 0.2998 38.1
2 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.2629 0.3113 34.9
3 Jarred Kelenic 0.2570 0.1810 28.1
4 Matt Chapman 0.2549 0.2098 27.0
5 Trea Turner 0.2877 0.3277 26.9
6 Kyle Tucker 0.2500 0.2945 26.1
7 Mike Yastrzemski 0.2733 0.2244 25.2
8 DJ LeMahieu 0.3065 0.2680 25.1
9 Bryan Reynolds 0.2661 0.3023 24.5

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kyle Seager 0.2570 0.2123 32.4
2 Akil Baddoo 0.1915 0.2591 29.5
3 Nick Castellanos 0.2578 0.3089 27.8
4 Trea Turner 0.2838 0.3277 26.1
5 Michael Brantley 0.2570 0.3113 25.8
6 Kevin Newman 0.2680 0.2263 25.1
7 Bryan Reynolds 0.2604 0.3023 24.8
8 Matt Chapman 0.2449 0.2098 24.0
9 Jarred Kelenic 0.2404 0.1810 23.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Akil Baddoo 0.1935 0.2591 29.1
2 Nick Castellanos 0.2593 0.3089 27.6
3 Kevin Newman 0.2712 0.2263 26.2
4 Trea Turner 0.2853 0.3277 25.9
5 Andrelton Simmons 0.2772 0.2233 25.4
6 César Hernández 0.2688 0.2316 25.2
7 Matt Chapman 0.2472 0.2098 24.8
8 Tommy Pham 0.2700 0.2295 24.1
9 Jarred Kelenic 0.2422 0.1810 24.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryan Reynolds 0.2475 0.3023 35.1
2 Nicky Lopez 0.2449 0.2998 30.7
3 Jonathan India 0.2243 0.2688 27.7
4 Didi Gregorius 0.2750 0.2092 27.1
5 DJ LeMahieu 0.3059 0.2680 26.1
6 Nick Castellanos 0.2639 0.3089 26.0
7 Willi Castro 0.2770 0.2203 25.7
8 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 0.1970 0.2478 25.5
9 Andrelton Simmons 0.2777 0.2233 24.8

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.2629 0.2905 0.3113 34.9 12.8 22.1
2 Brendan Rodgers 0.2315 0.2642 0.2842 22.5 7.3 15.2
3 Nolan Arenado 0.2892 0.2624 0.2546 21.5 6.7 14.9
4 Nicky Lopez 0.2340 0.2555 0.2998 38.1 23.7 14.4
5 Dylan Carlson 0.2305 0.2477 0.2657 22.8 9.6 13.2
6 Josh Rojas 0.2267 0.2463 0.2645 21.7 8.6 13.0
7 Mike Yastrzemski 0.2733 0.2473 0.2244 25.2 13.5 11.7
8 Tom Murphy 0.2548 0.2158 0.2022 16.6 5.2 11.4
9 Yonathan Daza 0.2396 0.2906 0.2824 14.7 3.5 11.2
10 Kyle Tucker 0.2500 0.2654 0.2945 26.1 15.1 11.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Michael Brantley 0.2570 0.2938 0.3113 25.8 7.6 18.1
2 Gregory Polanco 0.2570 0.2217 0.2083 20.0 6.0 13.9
3 Kyle Seager 0.2570 0.2418 0.2123 32.4 21.4 10.9
4 Justin Upton 0.2570 0.2289 0.2107 18.1 7.5 10.6
5 Brett Gardner 0.2570 0.2381 0.2222 17.7 8.5 9.2
6 Juan Lagares 0.2570 0.2336 0.2362 8.0 0.1 7.9
7 Freddy Galvis 0.2570 0.2388 0.2416 7.5 0.1 7.4
8 Josh VanMeter 0.2570 0.2360 0.2117 15.2 8.3 6.9
9 Guillermo Heredia 0.2570 0.2390 0.2197 14.2 7.5 6.7
10 Patrick Wisdom 0.2570 0.2160 0.2308 11.2 4.6 6.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Juan Lagares 0.2233 0.2336 0.2362 3.5 0.1 3.4
2 Starlin Castro 0.2651 0.2749 0.2825 5.2 1.8 3.4
3 Adolis García 0.2100 0.2151 0.2427 18.8 15.7 3.2
4 Buster Posey 0.2544 0.2612 0.3038 21.3 18.3 3.1
5 Jonathan Schoop 0.2525 0.2571 0.2777 15.3 12.2 3.1
6 Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.2789 0.2711 0.2569 9.7 6.6 3.1
7 Josh VanMeter 0.2458 0.2360 0.2117 11.3 8.3 3.0
8 Tommy Pham 0.2700 0.2647 0.2295 24.1 21.1 3.0
9 Andrew Vaughn 0.2158 0.2218 0.2350 7.9 5.1 2.8
10 Carlos Correa 0.2637 0.2681 0.2793 8.4 5.6 2.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.2757 0.2905 0.3113 24.4 12.8 11.6
2 Austin Riley 0.2387 0.2491 0.3034 42.5 34.3 8.2
3 Mike Yastrzemski 0.2643 0.2473 0.2244 21.6 13.5 8.1
4 Jonathan India 0.2243 0.2347 0.2688 27.7 20.0 7.8
5 Bryan Reynolds 0.2475 0.2570 0.3023 35.1 27.7 7.4
6 Jose Iglesias 0.2965 0.2802 0.2712 13.2 5.8 7.4
7 Nicky Lopez 0.2449 0.2555 0.2998 30.7 23.7 7.0
8 Joey Votto 0.2403 0.2516 0.2656 13.2 6.2 7.0
9 J.D. Martinez 0.2641 0.2731 0.2860 13.5 6.6 6.9
10 Trey Mancini 0.2765 0.2640 0.2554 13.4 6.8 6.5

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Alek Manoah 459
100
(359.0)
100
(359.0)
100
(359.0)
100
(359.0)
100
(359.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cole Irvin 268 768 500.3
2 Spencer Turnbull 614 201 412.9
3 Jacob deGrom 736 324 412.1
4 Jack Flaherty 727 322 405.5
5 Shane Bieber 779 405 373.9
6 Luis Garcia 262 633 370.5
7 Nestor Cortes 4 374 369.6
8 Danny Duffy 620 252 368.5
9 Trevor Bauer 792 432 359.7
10 Wily Peralta 45 402 356.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cole Irvin 159 768 609.0
2 Chris Flexen 139 741 602.0
3 Luis Garcia 166 633 467.0
4 Julio Urías 321 745 424.0
5 Shane McClanahan 100 517 417.0
6 Walker Buehler 399 815 416.0
7 Nathan Eovaldi 349 764 415.0
8 Logan Gilbert 100 503 403.0
9 Sandy Alcantara 435 837 402.0
10 Marcus Stroman 333 730 397.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Wainwright 100 828 728.0
2 Cole Irvin 118 768 649.5
3 Luis Garcia 103 633 530.2
4 Garrett Richards 100 617 517.0
5 Matt Harvey 100 582 482.0
6 Vladimir Gutierrez 35 496 461.3
7 Spencer Turnbull 645 201 444.4
8 Logan Gilbert 76 503 427.4
9 Wil Crowe 100 524 424.0
10 Carlos Carrasco 661 237 423.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cole Irvin 208 768 559.6
2 Jacob deGrom 800 324 476.5
3 James Kaprielian 43 502 458.9
4 Paolo Espino 4 455 450.6
5 Vladimir Gutierrez 52 496 444.1
6 Jack Flaherty 763 322 441.3
7 Danny Duffy 680 252 428.3
8 Logan Allen 649 222 426.6
9 Matthew Boyd 733 337 395.9
10 Elieser Hernández 617 225 391.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Spencer Turnbull 638 201 437.1
2 Reynaldo López 653 222 431.0
3 Shane Bieber 812 405 407.1
4 Jacob deGrom 713 324 389.1
5 Jack Flaherty 705 322 382.9
6 Randy Dobnak 610 228 382.0
7 Nathan Eovaldi 392 764 372.0
8 Matthew Boyd 709 337 371.9
9 Justin Dunn 576 218 358.1
10 Carlos Carrasco 593 237 356.1

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Eduardo Rodriguez 337 670 675 338.0 4.8 333.2
2 Sandy Alcantara 435 752 837 402.0 85.1 316.9
3 Marcus Stroman 333 638 730 397.0 92.3 304.7
4 Kevin Gausman 386 679 775 389.0 96.0 293.0
5 Ryan Yarbrough 348 668 653 305.0 15.0 290.0
6 Corbin Burnes 299 588 657 358.0 68.8 289.2
7 Chris Flexen 139 423 741 602.0 318.0 284.0
8 Walker Buehler 399 682 815 416.0 133.0 283.0
9 José Berríos 478 752 781 303.0 29.3 273.7
10 Luis Castillo 476 747 803 327.0 56.1 270.9

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adam Wainwright 100 586 828 728.0 242.2 485.8
2 Caleb Smith 100 524 500 400.0 23.7 376.3
3 Alec Mills 100 560 517 417.0 43.1 373.9
4 Garrett Richards 100 435 617 517.0 181.8 335.2
5 Joe Ross 100 492 460 360.0 31.9 328.1
6 Matt Harvey 100 425 582 482.0 156.5 325.5
7 Wil Crowe 100 416 524 424.0 108.2 315.8
8 John Gant 100 407 491 391.0 84.3 306.7
9 Taylor Hearn 100 369 441 341.0 72.2 268.8
10 Chi Chi González 100 333 448 348.0 115.2 232.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jhoulys Chacín 4 250 269 264.7 18.8 245.8
2 Griffin Jax 4 246 360 355.6 113.8 241.7
3 Nabil Crismatt 42 273 351 308.7 77.9 230.8
4 Matt Peacock 4 217 386 381.6 168.8 212.8
5 Riley Smith 95 299 301 206.2 1.6 204.6
6 Kolby Allard 230 429 534 304.3 105.2 199.1
7 Tyler Alexander 153 338 451 298.1 113.0 185.2
8 Patrick Sandoval 134 319 363 228.8 44.3 184.5
9 Vladimir Gutierrez 52 225 496 444.1 271.2 172.9
10 Joel Payamps 13 182 205 192.1 22.7 169.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Touki Toussaint 502 259 216 286.0 43.4 242.6
2 Johan Oviedo 541 314 288 252.9 25.6 227.3
3 Alex Young 550 326 246 304.0 80.3 223.7
4 Jaime Barria 542 321 250 292.0 70.5 221.5
5 Trevor Richards 533 317 251 281.9 65.6 216.3
6 Jhoulys Chacín 496 250 269 227.0 18.8 208.2
7 Riley Smith 504 299 301 203.0 1.6 201.4
8 Reynaldo López 653 455 222 431.0 233.3 197.7
9 Jake Woodford 514 265 293 221.1 27.7 193.4
10 Triston McKenzie 288 476 495 206.9 19.1 187.8

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Paul Sewald 0.3939
0.2186
(44.0)
0.2231
(44.3)
0.2367
(40.3)
0.2068
(47.1)
0.2305
(40.9)
Zack Wheeler 0.2909
0.2264
(47.4)
0.2255
(53.1)
0.2283
(49.4)
0.2322
(42.5)
0.2187
(54.2)
Carlos Rodón 0.3464
0.2229
(61.3)
0.2214
(65.2)
0.2192
(65.6)
0.2202
(62.8)
0.2294
(58.0)
Corbin Burnes 0.3562
0.2836
(42.0)
0.2809
(47.5)
0.2790
(47.8)
0.2817
(43.2)
0.2900
(38.0)
Chris Flexen 0.1687
0.2437
(62.0)
0.2158
(37.1)
0.2472
(61.4)
0.2514
(67.7)
0.2324
(53.5)
Patrick Corbin 0.1904
0.2394
(43.2)
0.2585
(53.3)
0.2309
(33.7)
0.2381
(42.4)
0.2490
(50.3)
Dylan Cease 0.3192
0.2296
(57.3)
0.2173
(70.1)
0.2355
(56.1)
0.2288
(57.9)
0.2246
(61.1)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Luis Castillo 0.2823 0.2391 41.6
2 Zack Greinke 0.2190 0.1722 38.7
3 Dallas Keuchel 0.1741 0.1319 36.6
4 Jacob deGrom 0.3315 0.4506 35.8
5 Sean Manaea 0.2034 0.2573 34.1
6 Drew Smyly 0.2679 0.2143 34.0
7 Walker Buehler 0.2929 0.2601 33.7
8 Nick Pivetta 0.2057 0.2648 33.3
9 Logan Webb 0.2016 0.2651 32.7
10 Jon Lester 0.1877 0.1451 32.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Greinke 0.2350 0.1722 45.9
2 Jacob deGrom 0.3068 0.4506 45.6
3 Dallas Keuchel 0.1921 0.1319 45.4
4 Matt Peacock 0.2367 0.1295 42.5
5 Mike Foltynewicz 0.2338 0.1655 41.7
6 Cole Irvin 0.2138 0.1628 41.5
7 Jon Lester 0.2061 0.1451 40.1
8 Chi Chi González 0.2040 0.1250 36.7
9 Michael Kopech 0.2302 0.3614 36.6
10 Zach Plesac 0.2252 0.1672 36.4

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chi Chi González 0.2367 0.1250 52.0
2 Matt Harvey 0.2367 0.1632 45.3
3 Luis Castillo 0.2892 0.2391 43.8
4 Matt Peacock 0.2367 0.1295 43.1
5 Wily Peralta 0.2367 0.1443 38.9
6 Yusmeiro Petit 0.2367 0.1182 38.5
7 Alec Mills 0.2367 0.1683 37.7
8 Drew Smyly 0.2776 0.2143 37.0
9 Logan Webb 0.1991 0.2651 36.7
10 Riley Smith 0.2367 0.1196 36.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Luis Castillo 0.2899 0.2391 47.8
2 Drew Smyly 0.2826 0.2143 42.1
3 Sean Manaea 0.1998 0.2573 36.8
4 Nick Pivetta 0.2017 0.2648 35.9
5 Vladimir Gutierrez 0.2368 0.1774 33.8
6 Jon Lester 0.1899 0.1451 33.5
7 Kyle Hendricks 0.2003 0.1669 33.0
8 Logan Webb 0.2038 0.2651 31.4
9 Jacob deGrom 0.3461 0.4506 31.1
10 Walker Buehler 0.2893 0.2601 30.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Greinke 0.2376 0.1722 51.5
2 Lucas Giolito 0.3402 0.2792 50.0
3 Dallas Keuchel 0.1918 0.1319 49.1
4 Walker Buehler 0.3079 0.2601 45.7
5 Jacob deGrom 0.3043 0.4506 44.7
6 Michael Kopech 0.2023 0.3614 42.9
7 Wily Peralta 0.2367 0.1443 40.5
8 Sandy Alcantara 0.1861 0.2401 38.2
9 Mike Foltynewicz 0.2162 0.1655 34.6
10 Yusmeiro Petit 0.2202 0.1182 34.6

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matt Peacock 0.2367 0.1593 0.1295 42.5 14.8 27.7
2 Cole Irvin 0.2138 0.1766 0.1628 41.5 17.3 24.2
3 Josh Fleming 0.2203 0.1628 0.1451 35.0 11.8 23.2
4 Mike Foltynewicz 0.2338 0.1929 0.1655 41.7 21.1 20.6
5 Aroldis Chapman 0.2961 0.3717 0.3992 24.3 4.6 19.8
6 Ryan Weathers 0.2367 0.1589 0.1796 24.1 4.8 19.3
7 Spenser Watkins 0.2367 0.1582 0.1373 26.1 7.5 18.6
8 Robbie Ray 0.2796 0.2951 0.3208 29.6 13.2 16.4
9 Alex Reyes 0.2364 0.2813 0.2997 19.1 3.1 16.1
10 Casey Mize 0.2209 0.1892 0.1928 19.0 3.1 15.9

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matt Harvey 0.2367 0.1685 0.1632 45.3 8.1 37.2
2 Matt Peacock 0.2367 0.1593 0.1295 43.1 14.8 28.3
3 Chi Chi González 0.2367 0.1711 0.1250 52.0 24.5 27.5
4 Adam Wainwright 0.2367 0.1968 0.2101 25.7 3.9 21.8
5 Wily Peralta 0.2367 0.1844 0.1443 38.9 19.6 19.3
6 Alec Mills 0.2367 0.1952 0.1683 37.7 18.4 19.3
7 Spenser Watkins 0.2367 0.1582 0.1373 26.5 7.5 19.0
8 Julio Urías 0.2259 0.2449 0.2617 23.4 6.1 17.3
9 Wade LeBlanc 0.2367 0.1596 0.1312 24.3 8.2 16.1
10 Alex Reyes 0.2367 0.2813 0.2997 18.6 3.1 15.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Vladimir Gutierrez 0.2368 0.2100 0.1774 33.8 20.5 13.3
2 Garrett Crochet 0.3905 0.3350 0.2826 26.8 14.0 12.8
3 Robbie Ray 0.2822 0.2951 0.3208 23.1 13.2 9.9
4 Drew Smyly 0.2826 0.2679 0.2143 42.1 34.0 8.1
5 Tylor Megill 0.2231 0.2402 0.2612 11.2 4.7 6.5
6 Luis Castillo 0.2899 0.2823 0.2391 47.8 41.6 6.2
7 Taylor Hearn 0.2675 0.2536 0.2086 29.8 23.7 6.1
8 Chris Flexen 0.2514 0.2437 0.1687 67.7 62.0 5.8
9 Miguel Castro 0.2730 0.2543 0.2541 8.3 2.7 5.7
10 Jorge López 0.1776 0.1878 0.2018 8.6 3.0 5.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Giolito 0.3402 0.3018 0.2792 50.0 22.6 27.4
2 Wily Peralta 0.2367 0.1844 0.1443 40.5 19.6 20.9
3 Spenser Watkins 0.2367 0.1582 0.1373 27.5 7.5 20.0
4 Michael Kopech 0.2023 0.2525 0.3614 42.9 28.6 14.4
5 Madison Bumgarner 0.2171 0.1940 0.2023 14.2 0.2 14.0
6 James Karinchak 0.4383 0.3798 0.3319 27.0 13.3 13.7
7 Mike Foltynewicz 0.2162 0.1929 0.1655 34.6 21.1 13.5
8 Sandy Alcantara 0.1861 0.2017 0.2401 38.2 24.9 13.3
9 Jordan Lyles 0.2065 0.1894 0.1899 19.3 6.3 12.9
10 Zack Greinke 0.2376 0.2190 0.1722 51.5 38.7 12.8

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Julio Urías 0.6250
0.2386
(291.1)
0.1250
(323.2)
0.3939
(197.3)
0.2497
(274.7)
0.1556
(367.4)
Carlos Rodón 0.5417
0.2348
(166.2)
0.1667
(164.9)
0.3200
(136.4)
0.1420
(209.9)
0.3125
(135.0)
Adam Wainwright 0.5312
0.3424
(159.9)
0.2667
(164.3)
0.2263
(280.5)
0.3348
(157.2)
0.3500
(169.7)
Chris Flexen 0.4516
0.2066
(184.7)
0.1250
(193.0)
0.3050
(133.7)
0.1848
(192.9)
0.1667
(228.7)
Aaron Civale 0.5714
0.3448
(115.0)
0.1818
(161.1)
0.3496
(127.3)
0.3236
(120.2)
0.3600
(117.1)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cole Irvin 0.0813 0.3125 180.9
2 Shane McClanahan 0.0877 0.4000 163.7
3 Vladimir Gutierrez 0.1226 0.4091 144.2
4 Luis Castillo 0.4240 0.2424 142.3
5 James Kaprielian 0.0578 0.3333 140.5
6 Freddy Peralta 0.1431 0.3571 126.7
7 Mike Foltynewicz 0.2739 0.0714 116.1
8 Dylan Bundy 0.3786 0.0870 114.1
9 Zac Gallen 0.3797 0.1739 105.4
10 Alek Manoah 0.2263 0.4500 104.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Steven Matz 0.1481 0.4828 173.7
2 Kevin Gausman 0.1379 0.4242 170.6
3 Walker Buehler 0.2222 0.4848 160.1
4 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1667 0.4643 158.3
5 Tyler Mahle 0.1333 0.3939 147.6
6 Framber Valdez 0.2000 0.5000 133.7
7 Corbin Burnes 0.1250 0.3929 132.5
8 Mike Foltynewicz 0.2273 0.0714 130.1
9 Luis Garcia 0.1053 0.3667 123.6
10 Max Scherzer 0.2593 0.5000 121.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cole Irvin 0.0563 0.3125 222.7
2 Shane McClanahan 0.0528 0.4000 197.0
3 James Kaprielian 0.0453 0.3333 161.6
4 Freddy Peralta 0.1216 0.3571 156.2
5 Luis Castillo 0.4315 0.2424 124.7
6 Alek Manoah 0.2263 0.4500 118.2
7 Jordan Montgomery 0.3893 0.2000 102.8
8 Yu Darvish 0.4513 0.2667 102.7
9 Jose Quintana 0.3740 0.0000 101.0
10 Steven Matz 0.3609 0.4828 100.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cole Irvin 0.0717 0.3125 179.9
2 Vladimir Gutierrez 0.0478 0.4091 175.9
3 Shane McClanahan 0.0636 0.4000 170.6
4 James Kaprielian 0.0470 0.3333 140.5
5 Luis Castillo 0.4066 0.2424 137.1
6 Jordan Lyles 0.1341 0.3125 132.2
7 Freddy Peralta 0.1385 0.3571 123.0
8 Yu Darvish 0.4384 0.2667 121.4
9 Jordan Montgomery 0.3588 0.2000 109.3
10 Alex Wood 0.1938 0.3846 107.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corbin Burnes 0.1579 0.3929 170.0
2 Mike Foltynewicz 0.3333 0.0714 139.6
3 Luis Castillo 0.4333 0.2424 134.2
4 Steven Matz 0.3077 0.4828 128.6
5 Framber Valdez 0.3000 0.5000 128.0
6 Dylan Bundy 0.4286 0.0870 126.2
7 Chris Bassitt 0.2800 0.4444 119.9
8 Freddy Peralta 0.1750 0.3571 119.4
9 Austin Gomber 0.1724 0.3913 118.4
10 Drew Smyly 0.1905 0.3793 116.1

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kevin Gausman 0.1379 0.3703 0.4242 170.6 45.1 125.5
2 Walker Buehler 0.2222 0.4255 0.4848 160.1 51.9 108.2
3 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1667 0.3931 0.4643 158.3 51.6 106.7
4 Tyler Mahle 0.1333 0.3335 0.3939 147.6 49.2 98.4
5 Max Scherzer 0.2593 0.4489 0.5000 121.0 38.4 82.6
6 Ian Anderson 0.1515 0.3849 0.3750 84.2 3.0 81.2
7 Luis Garcia 0.1053 0.3034 0.3667 123.6 42.8 80.8
8 Drew Smyly 0.1071 0.3176 0.3793 112.5 36.1 76.4
9 Steven Matz 0.1481 0.3330 0.4828 173.7 99.7 74.0
10 Trevor Bauer 0.2414 0.4762 0.4706 70.4 0.6 69.9

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adam Wainwright 0.2263 0.3424 0.5312 280.5 159.9 120.5
2 Vince Velasquez 0.3415 0.1958 0.1200 78.3 29.8 48.5
3 Ryan Weathers 0.2903 0.1401 0.1333 49.4 1.0 48.4
4 Kolby Allard 0.2950 0.1800 0.0938 89.4 43.8 45.6
5 Steve Cishek 0.2263 0.0489 0.0000 59.3 13.7 45.6
6 Cole Irvin 0.0563 0.0813 0.3125 222.7 180.9 41.9
7 Hansel Robles 0.2263 0.0561 0.0417 44.8 3.0 41.8
8 Sergio Romo 0.2263 0.0506 0.0152 45.9 8.1 37.9
9 Nick Wittgren 0.2263 0.0502 0.0333 41.1 3.2 37.8
10 Marco Gonzales 0.3206 0.3545 0.4000 66.2 29.2 37.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Rodón 0.1420 0.2348 0.5417 209.9 166.2 43.8
2 Garrett Richards 0.3245 0.2648 0.1750 96.3 52.8 43.5
3 Jordan Lyles 0.1341 0.1943 0.3125 132.2 94.2 38.0
4 Tyler Anderson 0.2800 0.2443 0.2258 42.7 10.0 32.7
5 Alex Wood 0.1938 0.2603 0.3846 107.8 75.2 32.5
6 Vladimir Gutierrez 0.0478 0.1226 0.4091 175.9 144.2 31.7
7 Josh Fleming 0.2079 0.2836 0.3846 76.2 47.2 29.0
8 Brandon Woodruff 0.3987 0.3706 0.3000 74.5 47.0 27.6
9 Jesús Luzardo 0.3614 0.3107 0.2400 55.9 29.0 26.9
10 Jordan Montgomery 0.3588 0.3300 0.2000 109.3 83.0 26.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Corbin Burnes 0.1579 0.2689 0.3929 170.0 84.3 85.6
2 Nathan Eovaldi 0.2381 0.3306 0.3438 98.8 13.3 85.5
3 Drew Smyly 0.1905 0.3176 0.3793 116.1 36.1 80.0
4 Julio Urías 0.1556 0.2386 0.6250 367.4 291.1 76.4
5 Tyler Alexander 0.2581 0.0837 0.0488 83.7 13.8 69.9
6 Walker Buehler 0.3704 0.4255 0.4848 112.6 51.9 60.7
7 David Price 0.4118 0.2108 0.1282 84.7 25.5 59.2
8 Nabil Crismatt 0.2800 0.0922 0.0667 66.6 7.4 59.1
9 Lucas Giolito 0.5333 0.4340 0.3548 111.4 53.9 57.5
10 Adrian Houser 0.2000 0.2741 0.3571 108.3 52.3 56.0

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Ian Kennedy 0.4727
0.0558
(92.7)
0.2083
(64.4)
0.0322
(97.3)
0.1110
(80.4)
0.0000
(106.4)
Mark Melancon 0.6094
0.0903
(134.8)
0.1613
(123.5)
0.0322
(149.3)
0.0813
(137.5)
0.0991
(133.6)
Jake McGee 0.5000
0.2421
(59.2)
0.0345
(115.6)
0.0322
(108.5)
0.2155
(65.8)
0.2659
(54.5)
Scott Barlow 0.2254
0.0282
(57.2)
0.0303
(65.2)
0.0500
(49.4)
0.0160
(61.2)
0.0151
(62.5)
Michael Fulmer 0.2692
0.0000
(76.9)
0.0345
(75.1)
0.0000
(75.9)
0.0000
(77.2)
0.0000
(78.1)
Emmanuel Clase 0.3380
0.0646
(73.4)
0.0588
(82.9)
0.0000
(90.4)
0.0928
(65.8)
0.1042
(63.5)
Will Smith 0.5211
0.2459
(75.0)
0.2414
(84.3)
0.2500
(72.8)
0.2198
(82.7)
0.2660
(70.5)
Lou Trivino III 0.3099
0.0266
(84.6)
0.0323
(91.7)
0.0833
(65.9)
0.0000
(93.2)
0.0000
(94.1)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Bass 0.3435 0.0000 92.0
2 Drew Steckenrider 0.0000 0.2258 57.5
3 Jordan Romano 0.1562 0.3710 51.7
4 Hansel Robles 0.0172 0.1944 49.6
5 Rafael Montero 0.3681 0.1591 49.4
6 Dylan Floro 0.0307 0.2206 48.5
7 James Karinchak 0.3750 0.1833 47.5
8 Kyle Finnegan 0.0000 0.1618 44.5
9 Paul Sewald 0.0000 0.1774 44.1
10 Carlos Estévez 0.0104 0.1719 40.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Reyes 0.0476 0.4203 123.9
2 Jordan Romano 0.0476 0.3710 86.4
3 Liam Hendriks 0.2727 0.5507 79.0
4 Gregory Soto 0.0345 0.2903 75.6
5 Ryan Pressly 0.1290 0.4062 73.8
6 Matt Barnes 0.0909 0.4000 72.6
7 Carlos Martinez 0.2083 0.0000 69.1
8 Kenley Jansen 0.3438 0.5507 62.6
9 Raisel Iglesias 0.3125 0.5231 62.4
10 Dylan Floro 0.0333 0.2206 55.4

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Reyes 0.0322 0.4203 118.6
2 Jordan Romano 0.0333 0.3710 81.9
3 Brad Hand 0.0322 0.3088 73.0
4 Dylan Floro 0.0000 0.2206 55.8
5 Gregory Soto 0.0833 0.2903 53.3
6 Matt Barnes 0.1667 0.4000 48.7
7 Drew Steckenrider 0.0322 0.2258 48.0
8 Hansel Robles 0.0322 0.1944 44.1
9 Kyle Finnegan 0.0000 0.1618 43.5
10 Richard Rodríguez 0.0322 0.2188 43.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Bass 0.3424 0.0000 91.4
2 Alex Reyes 0.2240 0.4203 59.3
3 Drew Steckenrider 0.0000 0.2258 57.8
4 Génesis Cabrera 0.1736 0.0000 54.1
5 Rafael Montero 0.3780 0.1591 51.3
6 Hansel Robles 0.0184 0.1944 49.5
7 Emilio Pagán 0.1707 0.0000 47.3
8 Shane McClanahan 0.0798 0.0000 46.0
9 Dylan Floro 0.0421 0.2206 45.7
10 Amir Garrett 0.3134 0.1111 45.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Bass 0.3447 0.0000 91.2
2 Craig Kimbrel 0.7424 0.3810 86.4
3 James Karinchak 0.5290 0.1833 82.7
4 Daniel Bard 0.5610 0.2985 81.7
5 Alex Reyes 0.6618 0.4203 78.5
6 Rafael Montero 0.4759 0.1591 72.7
7 Jordan Romano 0.1286 0.3710 59.8
8 Drew Steckenrider 0.0000 0.2258 58.6
9 César Valdez 0.4652 0.2051 55.9
10 Kenley Jansen 0.3605 0.5507 51.2

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alex Reyes 0.0476 0.3442 0.4203 123.9 20.9 103.0
2 Carlos Martinez 0.2083 0.0000 0.0000 69.1 3.8 65.3
3 Matt Barnes 0.0909 0.3223 0.4000 72.6 14.9 57.7
4 Jake McGee 0.0345 0.2421 0.5000 115.6 59.2 56.4
5 Ryan Pressly 0.1290 0.4732 0.4062 73.8 19.3 54.5
6 Liam Hendriks 0.2727 0.4460 0.5507 79.0 25.2 53.9
7 Raisel Iglesias 0.3125 0.4517 0.5231 62.4 16.7 45.8
8 Gregory Soto 0.0345 0.1588 0.2903 75.6 33.5 42.1
9 Edwin Díaz 0.3235 0.4464 0.5079 52.0 13.2 38.9
10 Yimi García 0.0370 0.1615 0.2419 52.8 16.6 36.2

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alex Reyes 0.0322 0.3442 0.4203 118.6 20.9 97.8
2 Brad Hand 0.0322 0.3384 0.3088 73.0 11.1 62.0
3 Jake McGee 0.0322 0.2421 0.5000 108.5 59.2 49.3
4 Matt Barnes 0.1667 0.3223 0.4000 48.7 14.9 33.8
5 Jordan Romano 0.0333 0.1562 0.3710 81.9 51.7 30.2
6 Adam Wainwright 0.0322 0.0000 0.0000 38.1 8.6 29.6
7 César Valdez 0.0322 0.1600 0.2051 33.4 7.3 26.1
8 Edwin Díaz 0.3515 0.4464 0.5079 36.7 13.2 23.5
9 Blake Treinen 0.0000 0.0796 0.0972 23.8 2.1 21.8
10 Tyler Rogers 0.0167 0.0845 0.1625 43.0 22.0 21.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alex Reyes 0.2240 0.3442 0.4203 59.3 20.9 38.4
2 Génesis Cabrera 0.1736 0.0794 0.0000 54.1 26.6 27.5
3 Shane McClanahan 0.0798 0.0326 0.0000 46.0 22.2 23.9
4 Amir Garrett 0.3134 0.2406 0.1111 45.5 30.1 15.4
5 Tanner Scott 0.1292 0.0689 0.0000 34.7 19.9 14.9
6 Giovanny Gallegos 0.0827 0.1257 0.1918 31.0 17.3 13.7
7 Josh Hader 0.3763 0.4329 0.5667 40.6 27.6 12.9
8 César Valdez 0.1054 0.1600 0.2051 19.0 7.3 11.7
9 Yimi García 0.1177 0.1615 0.2419 27.2 16.6 10.6
10 Emilio Pagán 0.1707 0.1311 0.0000 47.3 37.2 10.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alex Reyes 0.6618 0.3442 0.4203 78.5 20.9 57.7
2 Craig Kimbrel 0.7424 0.5087 0.3810 86.4 32.5 53.9
3 César Valdez 0.4652 0.1600 0.2051 55.9 7.3 48.6
4 Daniel Bard 0.5610 0.4015 0.2985 81.7 34.5 47.2
5 James Karinchak 0.5290 0.3750 0.1833 82.7 47.5 35.2
6 Rafael Montero 0.4759 0.3681 0.1591 72.7 49.4 23.3
7 Aroldis Chapman 0.6396 0.5467 0.4918 37.4 15.9 21.6
8 Josh Staumont 0.2216 0.1447 0.0781 39.5 20.3 19.2
9 Blake Treinen 0.1573 0.0796 0.0972 18.9 2.1 16.9
10 Kenley Jansen 0.3605 0.4143 0.5507 51.2 35.0 16.1

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Justus Sheffield 6.8340
4.4886
(1021.4)
4.3096
(1040.8)
4.4793
(982.5)
4.4956
(1016.3)
4.4909
(1026.0)
Carlos Rodón 2.3744
4.7369
(1097.3)
4.5933
(1089.4)
4.7250
(1149.9)
4.7996
(1134.1)
4.6849
(1062.1)
J.C. Mejía 8.2548
4.9648
(856.2)
4.0791
(1036.4)
4.0791
(1040.8)
5.2678
(782.6)
4.6625
(931.5)
Jake Arrieta 7.3885
4.7404
(1386.3)
4.5000
(1438.6)
4.8146
(1299.7)
4.8541
(1330.0)
4.5510
(1481.7)
Ranger Suarez 1.3585
4.3856
(1136.7)
4.5401
(1255.1)
4.3015
(1147.7)
4.3079
(1106.9)
4.5495
(1199.4)
J.A. Happ 5.7899
4.5652
(1028.2)
4.2593
(1147.1)
4.4834
(1009.1)
4.7853
(876.4)
4.4274
(1130.1)
Matt Shoemaker 8.0552
4.8431
(999.6)
4.1557
(1158.3)
4.0791
(1185.3)
4.7658
(1019.8)
4.9206
(981.6)
Patrick Corbin 5.8194
4.0363
(1570.2)
3.7768
(1668.4)
4.0952
(1443.0)
4.0144
(1582.0)
3.9988
(1608.8)
Jesús Luzardo 6.6084
3.7724
(1373.8)
4.1753
(1141.5)
3.6984
(1357.8)
3.8519
(1336.3)
3.7667
(1382.4)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Heaney 4.1609 5.8303 1103.2
2 Cal Quantrill 4.8208 2.8864 1002.1
3 Adam Wainwright 4.5186 3.0533 958.5
4 Robbie Ray 4.3773 2.8397 950.8
5 Mitch Keller 4.4622 6.1689 946.8
6 Aaron Nola 3.6829 4.6328 942.0
7 Dallas Keuchel 4.3092 5.2778 918.9
8 Zach Davies 4.7410 5.7770 897.5
9 Vince Velasquez 4.4730 6.2968 888.8
10 Zack Wheeler 4.0825 2.7844 840.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zach Davies 3.7197 5.7770 1493.8
2 Dallas Keuchel 3.5398 5.2778 1380.1
3 Robbie Ray 4.6719 2.8397 1278.0
4 Corbin Burnes 4.3714 2.4251 1161.2
5 Kevin Gausman 4.4702 2.8125 1146.1
6 Trevor Rogers 4.8425 2.6391 1113.5
7 Brad Keller 3.7914 5.3865 1087.5
8 Hyun Jin Ryu 3.0245 4.3669 1066.4
9 Spenser Watkins 4.0791 8.0671 1062.6
10 Kyle Hendricks 3.6061 4.7735 1056.8

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Harvey 4.0791 6.2742 1392.3
2 Chi Chi González 4.0791 6.4623 1156.1
3 Robbie Ray 4.4510 2.8397 1093.1
4 Spenser Watkins 4.0791 8.0671 1067.2
5 Andrew Heaney 4.2099 5.8303 1014.3
6 Cal Quantrill 4.7013 2.8864 996.5
7 Zack Wheeler 4.1096 2.7844 957.6
8 Mitch Keller 4.4160 6.1689 916.6
9 Sandy Alcantara 4.4748 3.1945 906.5
10 Griffin Jax 4.0791 6.3659 894.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Robbie Ray 4.5270 2.8397 1071.3
2 Andrew Heaney 4.2738 5.8303 1036.7
3 Cal Quantrill 4.7900 2.8864 986.9
4 Vince Velasquez 4.2645 6.2968 973.2
5 Mitch Keller 4.4459 6.1689 951.5
6 Aaron Nola 3.6860 4.6328 934.9
7 Adam Wainwright 4.4099 3.0533 873.7
8 Keegan Akin 5.0295 6.6316 812.8
9 Zack Wheeler 3.9980 2.7844 774.4
10 JT Brubaker 4.2218 5.3566 772.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zach Davies 4.2436 5.7770 1239.2
2 Andrew Heaney 3.9986 5.8303 1201.6
3 Dallas Keuchel 3.9922 5.2778 1157.3
4 Spenser Watkins 4.0791 8.0671 1099.0
5 Cal Quantrill 4.9756 2.8864 1088.8
6 Aaron Nola 3.5558 4.6328 1047.7
7 Adam Wainwright 4.6295 3.0533 1038.7
8 Mitch Keller 4.5260 6.1689 923.4
9 Ryan Yarbrough 4.0366 5.1097 910.8
10 Vince Velasquez 4.5115 6.2968 878.6

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kevin Gausman 4.4702 3.8256 2.8125 1146.1 546.7 599.4
2 Zach Davies 3.7197 4.7410 5.7770 1493.8 897.5 596.3
3 Hyun Jin Ryu 3.0245 3.9493 4.3669 1066.4 508.4 558.0
4 Cole Irvin 5.1639 4.5090 4.2393 572.8 29.1 543.7
5 Mike Foltynewicz 4.1860 5.2352 5.4388 839.0 299.6 539.4
6 José Suarez 5.9356 4.8516 3.7525 827.7 326.8 500.9
7 Zach Plesac 3.6535 4.6127 4.6682 713.8 217.2 496.6
8 Chris Flexen 4.8571 4.3182 3.6067 794.0 299.3 494.8
9 Logan Webb 4.8322 4.1583 3.0337 965.3 486.9 478.4
10 Trevor Rogers 4.8425 4.1116 2.6391 1113.5 640.7 472.8

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matt Harvey 4.0791 5.7266 6.2742 1392.3 497.8 894.6
2 Chi Chi González 4.0791 6.1288 6.4623 1156.1 287.2 868.8
3 Wil Crowe 4.0791 5.3892 5.4771 835.9 207.3 628.7
4 Sam Hentges 4.0791 5.6085 6.6845 891.2 440.0 451.3
5 Griffin Jax 4.0791 5.2425 6.3659 894.3 515.2 379.1
6 Alec Mills 4.0791 4.9058 5.0672 612.9 242.5 370.3
7 Caleb Smith 4.0791 4.9126 4.8299 474.0 112.5 361.6
8 Spenser Watkins 4.0791 5.5980 8.0671 1067.2 708.1 359.2
9 Adam Plutko 4.0791 5.4916 6.7101 721.2 389.2 332.0
10 Taylor Hearn 4.0791 4.9223 4.6581 342.4 19.2 323.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Taylor Hearn 4.2924 4.9223 4.6581 294.2 19.2 275.1
2 Vladimir Gutierrez 4.5184 5.1392 4.7368 257.9 47.0 210.9
3 Matt Harvey 5.3804 5.7266 6.2742 695.6 497.8 197.8
4 Steve Cishek 4.8168 4.1964 3.4244 336.0 143.0 193.0
5 Yusmeiro Petit 4.7677 4.2302 3.9231 170.0 0.2 169.8
6 José Berríos 4.2521 4.0653 3.5156 339.8 189.0 150.8
7 Ross Detwiler 3.9797 4.6334 4.6433 221.0 72.7 148.3
8 Matt Peacock 4.5047 4.8581 4.8996 268.8 134.8 134.0
9 Rex Brothers 3.9849 4.5453 5.2642 373.0 242.3 130.8
10 Derek Holland 4.4588 5.0345 5.0738 206.2 78.1 128.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Giolito 3.0000 3.6411 3.5261 610.4 138.7 471.7
2 Spenser Watkins 4.0791 5.5980 8.0671 1099.0 708.1 390.9
3 Zach Davies 4.2436 4.7410 5.7770 1239.2 897.5 341.7
4 Mike Foltynewicz 4.7143 5.2352 5.4388 613.1 299.6 313.5
5 Ryan Weathers 4.1211 4.8257 5.3239 611.3 323.2 288.1
6 Vladimir Gutierrez 5.7329 5.1392 4.7368 334.5 47.0 287.5
7 Hyun Jin Ryu 3.5792 3.9493 4.3669 777.7 508.4 269.3
8 Ryan Yarbrough 4.0366 4.4294 5.1097 910.8 645.1 265.6
9 Zack Greinke 3.7368 4.0872 4.1579 517.7 263.7 254.0
10 James Kaprielian 5.1702 4.6525 4.0726 389.5 136.6 252.9

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Justus Sheffield 1.8423
1.4606
(177.8)
1.3808
(190.7)
1.4678
(167.9)
1.4444
(185.8)
1.4700
(170.1)
Mitch Keller 1.7881
1.4060
(217.3)
1.4212
(188.3)
1.4007
(211.1)
1.3997
(222.3)
1.4180
(206.6)
Robbie Ray 1.0448
1.3712
(190.3)
1.4398
(279.2)
1.3787
(210.5)
1.3901
(201.6)
1.3448
(178.1)
Carlos Rodón 0.9573
1.4178
(203.1)
1.3397
(186.2)
1.4110
(209.4)
1.4045
(193.7)
1.4384
(219.8)
Garrett Richards 1.5951
1.3589
(195.2)
1.3165
(192.8)
1.2628
(243.1)
1.4128
(164.6)
1.3056
(221.5)
Jake Arrieta 1.7736
1.4365
(195.7)
1.3936
(194.1)
1.4577
(177.1)
1.4652
(184.3)
1.3862
(214.3)
Brad Keller 1.6608
1.4294
(191.1)
1.2839
(251.8)
1.4507
(166.6)
1.4858
(159.1)
1.3518
(232.0)
Patrick Corbin 1.4680
1.3019
(185.0)
1.2679
(175.6)
1.3117
(163.7)
1.3013
(188.6)
1.2926
(183.9)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jesús Luzardo 1.2296 1.6154 203.7
2 Sandy Alcantara 1.3946 1.0746 200.7
3 Adam Wainwright 1.3764 1.0565 198.4
4 Luis Castillo 1.2245 1.3641 176.5
5 Zach Davies 1.4207 1.6014 174.2
6 Dallas Keuchel 1.3785 1.5309 167.5
7 Luis Garcia 1.5141 1.1781 161.9
8 Jorge López 1.4184 1.6274 160.5
9 Corbin Burnes 1.2517 0.9401 152.0
10 Brady Singer 1.3718 1.5506 151.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zach Davies 1.2489 1.6014 258.0
2 Corbin Burnes 1.3000 0.9401 214.3
3 Dallas Keuchel 1.2881 1.5309 199.1
4 Brady Singer 1.2606 1.5506 189.8
5 J.A. Happ 1.2346 1.4770 185.3
6 Freddy Peralta 1.3149 0.9700 180.5
7 Adam Wainwright 1.3064 1.0565 178.9
8 Max Scherzer 1.1553 0.8643 178.2
9 Kyle Hendricks 1.1594 1.3481 174.6
10 Sam Hentges 1.2628 1.7767 174.2

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Sandy Alcantara 1.4126 1.0746 231.3
2 Matt Harvey 1.2628 1.5431 199.0
3 Julio Urías 1.3431 1.0180 196.3
4 Jesús Luzardo 1.2306 1.6154 195.1
5 Wil Crowe 1.2628 1.5686 192.5
6 Corbin Burnes 1.2827 0.9401 184.6
7 Sam Hentges 1.2628 1.7767 183.0
8 Zack Wheeler 1.2797 1.0078 178.5
9 Jorge López 1.3908 1.6274 165.5
10 Junior Guerra 1.2628 1.7296 162.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jesús Luzardo 1.2468 1.6154 198.0
2 Adam Wainwright 1.3668 1.0565 186.9
3 Luis Castillo 1.2230 1.3641 181.2
4 Sandy Alcantara 1.3737 1.0746 179.6
5 Zach Davies 1.4594 1.6014 151.3
6 Corbin Burnes 1.2536 0.9401 150.5
7 Jorge López 1.4444 1.6274 148.5
8 Luis Garcia 1.4944 1.1781 146.7
9 Jose Quintana 1.3347 1.7302 142.5
10 Brady Singer 1.3951 1.5506 140.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dallas Keuchel 1.2590 1.5309 245.8
2 Zach Davies 1.3425 1.6014 219.3
3 Adam Wainwright 1.3862 1.0565 215.4
4 Sandy Alcantara 1.3978 1.0746 212.4
5 Jesús Luzardo 1.2110 1.6154 207.1
6 Luis Garcia 1.5581 1.1781 196.6
7 Luis Castillo 1.2032 1.3641 185.0
8 Kyle Hendricks 1.2147 1.3481 159.3
9 J.A. Happ 1.3145 1.4770 155.7
10 Jorge López 1.4205 1.6274 153.4

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Flexen 1.4286 1.3175 1.2523 105.6 11.1 94.4
2 Kevin Gausman 1.2914 1.2188 1.0417 167.4 75.1 92.3
3 Sam Hentges 1.2628 1.5992 1.7767 174.2 81.9 92.2
4 Robbie Ray 1.4398 1.3712 1.0448 279.2 190.3 88.9
5 Matt Peacock 1.2628 1.5378 1.5637 129.2 41.0 88.2
6 Zach Davies 1.2489 1.4207 1.6014 258.0 174.2 83.8
7 Daniel Lynch IV 1.2628 1.5440 1.6324 125.4 52.4 73.0
8 Max Scherzer 1.1553 1.1007 0.8643 178.2 108.2 70.0
9 Joe Musgrove 1.2474 1.2027 1.0809 99.3 31.1 68.2
10 Johan Oviedo 1.3351 1.6029 1.5722 78.0 14.3 63.7

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Wil Crowe 1.2628 1.5446 1.5686 192.5 54.6 137.9
2 Chi Chi González 1.2628 1.6450 1.5246 144.9 18.0 126.9
3 Matt Harvey 1.2628 1.4760 1.5431 199.0 85.7 113.3
4 Sam Hentges 1.2628 1.5992 1.7767 183.0 81.9 101.1
5 Matt Peacock 1.2628 1.5378 1.5637 139.9 41.0 99.0
6 Brett de Geus 1.2628 1.5703 1.7400 128.2 59.5 68.8
7 Julio Urías 1.3431 1.2694 1.0180 196.3 127.6 68.7
8 Sam Clay 1.2628 1.5936 1.7111 109.1 42.3 66.8
9 Spenser Watkins 1.2628 1.5080 1.7012 127.5 69.7 57.8
10 John Gant 1.2628 1.3977 1.5091 151.2 94.1 57.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Vladimir Gutierrez 1.3234 1.4133 1.4123 86.0 39.3 46.7
2 Ryan Weathers 1.6133 1.5057 1.3838 58.1 16.7 41.4
3 Yusmeiro Petit 1.3170 1.2069 1.0385 60.7 27.6 33.1
4 Lucas Giolito 1.2413 1.1693 1.1026 39.0 9.8 29.3
5 Chris Flexen 1.2831 1.3175 1.2523 39.8 11.1 28.6
6 Walker Buehler 1.1615 1.1226 0.9679 88.9 60.7 28.2
7 Mike Foltynewicz 1.4975 1.4475 1.2590 90.3 63.4 26.8
8 Craig Stammen 1.3023 1.2297 1.0415 62.6 38.3 24.2
9 Sam Clay 1.4904 1.5936 1.7111 65.3 42.3 23.0
10 Vince Velasquez 1.2750 1.3184 1.4841 122.4 102.5 19.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Giolito 1.0278 1.1693 1.1026 103.9 9.8 94.1
2 Dallas Keuchel 1.2590 1.3785 1.5309 245.8 167.5 78.3
3 Spenser Watkins 1.2628 1.5080 1.7012 129.5 69.7 59.8
4 Ryan Yarbrough 1.1939 1.2948 1.2258 66.2 7.4 58.8
5 Zack Greinke 1.1170 1.2112 1.1696 85.1 26.9 58.2
6 Taylor Hearn 1.5676 1.4545 1.3227 77.3 22.7 54.6
7 Josh Staumont 1.6481 1.4624 1.0660 135.3 83.5 51.8
8 Carlos Hernández 1.6310 1.5008 1.2840 99.3 48.9 50.4
9 Gregory Soto 1.6532 1.4836 1.3508 64.3 14.5 49.8
10 Michael Kopech 1.5405 1.3849 1.1250 98.6 51.2 47.4