2017 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2017, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Beckham 258 575 317.4
2 Mark Reynolds 287 593 306.0
3 Tommy Pham 231 530 299.4
4 Chris Taylor 292 568 276.4
5 Justin Smoak 366 637 270.8
6 Yoenis Cespedes 590 321 269.2
7 Cody Bellinger 283 548 265.4
8 Jed Lowrie 387 645 258.4
9 Jason Kipnis 612 373 238.9
10 Martín Maldonado 234 471 236.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Thames 100 551 451.0
2 Cody Bellinger 100 548 448.0
3 Aaron Judge 253 678 425.0
4 Andrew Benintendi 268 658 390.0
5 Trey Mancini 212 586 374.0
6 Paul DeJong 100 443 343.0
7 Josh Bell 283 620 337.0
8 Chris Taylor 246 568 322.0
9 Jorge Bonifacio 100 422 322.0
10 Ben Gamel 234 550 316.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cody Bellinger 51 548 496.9
2 Chris Taylor 91 568 476.9
3 Paul DeJong 1 443 442.0
4 Mark Reynolds 164 593 429.0
5 Yolmer Sánchez 106 534 428.5
6 Ben Gamel 133 550 417.4
7 Tommy Pham 114 530 415.8
8 Jorge Bonifacio 6 422 415.5
9 Ian Happ 1 413 412.0
10 Whit Merrifield 228 630 402.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Beckham 264 575 311.0
2 Yoenis Cespedes 596 321 275.0
3 Ian Desmond 639 373 266.0
4 Jesús Aguilar 568 311 257.0
5 Jason Kipnis 630 373 257.0
6 Martín Maldonado 219 471 252.0
7 Justin Smoak 387 637 250.0
8 Jed Lowrie 399 645 246.0
9 Starling Marte 581 339 242.0
10 Marcus Semien 627 386 241.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Eric Thames 100 509 551 451.0 41.9 409.1
2 Manuel Margot 226 553 529 303.0 23.8 279.2
3 Josh Bell 283 562 620 337.0 58.2 278.8
4 Trey Mancini 212 479 586 374.0 106.8 267.2
5 Andrew Benintendi 268 531 658 390.0 127.3 262.7
6 Alex Bregman 320 571 626 306.0 55.4 250.6
7 Ryon Healy 350 590 605 255.0 15.0 240.0
8 Kyle Schwarber 237 500 486 249.0 14.0 235.0
9 Dansby Swanson 282 587 551 269.0 36.1 232.9
10 Matt Davidson 205 436 443 238.0 6.9 231.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jorge Bonifacio 6 284 422 415.5 137.8 277.8
2 Bradley Zimmer 1 262 332 331.0 69.5 261.5
3 Adam Engel 26 280 336 310.1 56.1 254.1
4 Nick Williams 34 286 343 309.4 56.7 252.7
5 Carlos Asuaje 60 309 343 282.7 33.9 248.9
6 Ian Happ 1 244 413 412.0 169.0 243.0
7 Paul DeJong 1 240 443 442.0 203.0 239.0
8 Cody Bellinger 51 283 548 496.9 265.4 231.5
9 Ben Gamel 133 356 550 417.4 193.7 223.7
10 Chad Pinder 39 261 309 270.1 47.6 222.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jesús Aguilar 568 342 311 257.0 30.6 226.4
2 Carlos Asuaje 558 309 343 215.0 33.9 181.1
3 Ben Revere 508 347 308 200.0 39.1 160.9
4 Adam Engel 534 280 336 198.0 56.1 141.9
5 Nick Williams 539 286 343 196.0 56.7 139.3
6 Erick Aybar 548 413 370 178.0 43.3 134.7
7 Chad Pinder 484 261 309 175.0 47.6 127.4
8 Bradley Zimmer 524 262 332 192.0 69.5 122.5
9 Tommy Joseph 301 416 533 232.0 116.6 115.4
10 Adam Lind 429 315 301 128.0 14.4 113.6

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Scooter Gennett 0.0774
0.0298
(18.7)
0.0311
(17.8)
0.0277
(19.5)
0.0319
(18.0)
Joey Gallo 0.1621
0.1082
(23.4)
0.0584
(49.5)
0.0997
(27.6)
0.1172
(19.0)
Aaron Judge 0.1538
0.0869
(38.7)
0.0497
(63.5)
0.0727
(47.9)
0.1024
(28.6)
Mark Trumbo 0.0560
0.0846
(23.2)
0.0756
(18.2)
0.0837
(23.0)
0.0856
(23.4)
Carlos González 0.0392
0.0715
(22.5)
0.0640
(18.9)
0.0683
(21.1)
0.0747
(23.8)
Logan Morrison 0.1038
0.0469
(28.3)
0.0436
(29.8)
0.0523
(24.7)
0.0417
(31.8)
Yonder Alonso 0.0841
0.0225
(26.9)
0.0233
(26.2)
0.0245
(25.6)
0.0206
(28.3)
José Bautista 0.0542
0.0792
(23.9)
0.0733
(20.3)
0.0773
(23.0)
0.0811
(24.7)
Alex Gordon 0.0253
0.0460
(16.6)
0.0476
(17.8)
0.0449
(16.3)
0.0472
(16.8)
Evan Longoria 0.0388
0.0611
(21.8)
0.0531
(16.9)
0.0578
(20.0)
0.0644
(23.6)
J.D. Martinez 0.1461
0.0725
(31.2)
0.0698
(32.2)
0.0675
(33.3)
0.0775
(29.0)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ian Happ 0.0398 0.0996 20.6
2 Cody Bellinger 0.0695 0.1157 19.9
3 Chris Taylor 0.0136 0.0563 18.6
4 Miguel Cabrera 0.0671 0.0442 17.4
5 Ryan Zimmerman 0.0494 0.0893 17.3
6 Khris Davis 0.0782 0.1138 16.8
7 Paul DeJong 0.0389 0.0850 16.1
8 José Ramírez 0.0210 0.0557 16.0
9 Kurt Suzuki 0.0177 0.0792 15.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cody Bellinger 0.0540 0.1157 28.0
2 Matt Davidson 0.0417 0.1024 22.2
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0944 0.1350 20.8
4 Eric Thames 0.0540 0.1013 20.2
5 Ryan Zimmerman 0.0450 0.0893 19.4
6 Michael Conforto 0.0517 0.1031 18.0
7 Dansby Swanson 0.0357 0.0161 16.6
8 Gorkys Hernández 0.0368 0.0000 16.5
9 Jonathan Lucroy 0.0394 0.0160 16.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cody Bellinger 0.0563 0.1157 26.8
2 Ian Happ 0.0331 0.0996 23.1
3 Chris Taylor 0.0129 0.0563 18.7
4 Miguel Cabrera 0.0688 0.0442 18.5
5 Paul DeJong 0.0356 0.0850 17.2
6 Michael Conforto 0.0543 0.1031 16.8
7 Matt Davidson 0.0559 0.1024 16.0
8 Albert Pujols 0.0602 0.0456 15.9
9 Khris Davis 0.0793 0.1138 15.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Zimmerman 0.0447 0.0893 20.4
2 Chris Taylor 0.0143 0.0563 18.6
3 Ian Happ 0.0470 0.0996 17.9
4 Khris Davis 0.0771 0.1138 17.9
5 Chris Davis 0.1223 0.0981 17.5
6 José Ramírez 0.0198 0.0557 17.2
7 Kurt Suzuki 0.0154 0.0792 16.9
8 Mike Moustakas 0.0441 0.0814 16.8
9 Yuli Gurriel 0.0580 0.0381 16.4

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Joey Gallo 0.0584 0.1082 0.1621 49.5 23.4 26.1
2 Aaron Judge 0.0497 0.0869 0.1538 63.5 38.7 24.8
3 Eric Thames 0.0540 0.0826 0.1013 20.2 4.8 15.4
4 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0944 0.1126 0.1350 20.8 8.7 12.1
5 Kyle Schwarber 0.0662 0.0911 0.1103 16.3 4.5 11.7
6 Adam Frazier 0.0290 0.0070 0.0170 10.2 0.0 10.2
7 Adam Engel 0.0540 0.0247 0.0312 11.2 1.1 10.1
8 Mark Reynolds 0.0550 0.0710 0.0862 12.3 3.2 9.1
9 Ben Gamel 0.0375 0.0224 0.0281 11.0 2.3 8.7
10 Cody Bellinger 0.0540 0.0695 0.1157 28.0 19.9 8.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Aaron Judge 0.0727 0.0869 0.1538 47.9 38.7 9.2
2 Cody Bellinger 0.0563 0.0695 0.1157 26.8 19.9 6.9
3 Kyle Schwarber 0.0771 0.0911 0.1103 11.0 4.5 6.5
4 Joey Gallo 0.0997 0.1082 0.1621 27.6 23.4 4.2
5 Mark Reynolds 0.0639 0.0710 0.0862 7.0 3.2 3.9
6 Charlie Blackmon 0.0408 0.0462 0.0718 14.9 11.5 3.4
7 Keon Broxton 0.0503 0.0575 0.0830 10.3 7.2 3.0
8 Eric Hosmer 0.0476 0.0437 0.0499 5.5 2.5 3.0
9 Lucas Duda 0.0725 0.0787 0.1034 10.1 7.3 2.8
10 Melky Cabrera 0.0285 0.0253 0.0307 5.5 3.0 2.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yuli Gurriel 0.0580 0.0458 0.0381 16.4 9.9 6.5
2 Trevor Story 0.0818 0.0741 0.0767 7.9 4.0 3.9
3 Chris Davis 0.1223 0.1144 0.0981 17.5 13.7 3.8
4 Logan Morrison 0.0417 0.0469 0.1038 31.8 28.3 3.6
5 Ryan Zimmerman 0.0447 0.0494 0.0893 20.4 17.3 3.1
6 Mike Moustakas 0.0441 0.0484 0.0814 16.8 13.8 3.0
7 Nelson Cruz 0.0940 0.0889 0.0922 7.1 4.3 2.8
8 Brian Dozier 0.0677 0.0631 0.0711 4.1 1.3 2.8
9 Jay Bruce 0.0549 0.0582 0.0859 13.5 11.0 2.5
10 George Springer 0.0743 0.0703 0.0767 4.2 2.2 2.1

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Cameron Maybin 0.2973
0.1161
(84.2)
0.1138
(84.4)
0.1105
(86.1)
0.1217
(82.2)
Andrelton Simmons 0.1187
0.0502
(48.2)
0.0465
(49.4)
0.0510
(46.8)
0.0493
(49.6)
Rajai Davis 0.3580
0.1457
(79.9)
0.2685
(34.3)
0.2720
(33.1)
0.0000
(133.7)
Whit Merrifield 0.2313
0.1343
(64.8)
0.0805
(97.7)
0.1293
(67.1)
0.1395
(62.3)
Charlie Blackmon 0.0693
0.1443
(50.1)
0.1513
(56.4)
0.1387
(47.0)
0.1500
(53.3)
Alex Bregman 0.1083
0.0606
(33.5)
0.0571
(34.6)
0.0602
(32.9)
0.0611
(34.1)
Trea Turner 0.4182
0.2417
(81.5)
0.2526
(75.9)
0.2420
(80.8)
0.2414
(82.3)
Byron Buxton 0.2358
0.1412
(51.3)
0.1169
(62.9)
0.1445
(48.9)
0.1379
(53.7)
Alcides Escobar 0.0328
0.1145
(47.7)
0.1181
(51.0)
0.1099
(45.6)
0.1192
(49.8)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Engel 0.2591 0.1404 37.9
2 Carlos Correa 0.0981 0.0145 37.4
3 DJ LeMahieu 0.0847 0.0280 34.6
4 Todd Frazier 0.0924 0.0265 34.6
5 Eric Thames 0.0974 0.0292 34.4
6 Domingo Santana 0.0397 0.0904 34.3
7 Billy Hamilton 0.4374 0.3782 33.7
8 Yasiel Puig 0.0516 0.1049 33.7
9 José Reyes 0.1356 0.1875 32.4
10 Ben Gamel 0.0945 0.0299 32.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bradley Zimmer 0.0591 0.2338 59.4
2 Tommy Pham 0.0541 0.1471 51.5
3 Andrew Benintendi 0.0469 0.1087 43.4
4 Todd Frazier 0.1008 0.0265 40.4
5 Delino DeShields 0.1444 0.2320 40.4
6 Rougned Odor 0.0820 0.1364 38.1
7 Hernán Pérez 0.2143 0.1354 34.2
8 Carlos Correa 0.0850 0.0145 31.9
9 Jason Heyward 0.1014 0.0317 31.5
10 Jay Bruce 0.0619 0.0075 31.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Thames 0.1016 0.0292 37.4
2 Ben Gamel 0.1021 0.0299 37.2
3 José Reyes 0.1282 0.1875 35.8
4 Adam Engel 0.2452 0.1404 33.7
5 Tommy Pham 0.0882 0.1471 33.6
6 Yasiel Puig 0.0521 0.1049 32.7
7 Brett Gardner 0.0809 0.1237 32.2
8 Ben Revere 0.1662 0.2658 32.1
9 Jacoby Ellsbury 0.1304 0.2018 31.1
10 Yadier Molina 0.0206 0.0732 31.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Hamilton 0.4720 0.3782 54.8
2 Carlos Correa 0.1136 0.0145 44.2
3 DJ LeMahieu 0.1000 0.0280 44.2
4 Jarrod Dyson 0.3867 0.2692 43.0
5 Adam Engel 0.2743 0.1404 42.6
6 Todd Frazier 0.1007 0.0265 38.6
7 Domingo Santana 0.0351 0.0904 37.9
8 Yasiel Puig 0.0511 0.1049 34.8
9 Manuel Margot 0.2061 0.1339 34.4
10 Rougned Odor 0.0916 0.1364 33.8

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Bradley Zimmer 0.0591 0.1850 0.2338 59.4 18.1 41.2
2 Andrew Benintendi 0.0469 0.1000 0.1087 43.4 9.6 33.8
3 Whit Merrifield 0.0805 0.1343 0.2313 97.7 64.8 32.8
4 Delino DeShields 0.1444 0.2051 0.2320 40.4 14.4 26.0
5 Matt Davidson 0.0612 0.0110 0.0000 25.3 2.3 23.0
6 Trey Mancini 0.0600 0.0231 0.0069 28.6 6.0 22.6
7 Tommy Pham 0.0541 0.0981 0.1471 51.5 29.0 22.5
8 Gorkys Hernández 0.0577 0.1116 0.1304 26.8 8.6 18.2
9 Michael A. Taylor 0.1446 0.1927 0.1828 18.3 1.7 16.6
10 Chris Taylor 0.0862 0.1104 0.1206 21.9 9.1 12.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2768 0.2972 0.2927 14.1 0.9 13.2
2 Guillermo Heredia 0.0746 0.0504 0.0089 26.1 15.2 10.9
3 Lorenzo Cain 0.1148 0.1309 0.1390 18.5 9.0 9.5
4 Robinson Chirinos 0.0532 0.0267 0.0125 11.2 2.6 8.6
5 Adam Frazier 0.1331 0.1164 0.0726 25.4 17.3 8.2
6 Michael Brantley 0.0604 0.0817 0.1058 18.7 11.2 7.5
7 Jed Lowrie 0.0205 0.0102 0.0000 10.3 2.8 7.5
8 Mookie Betts 0.1246 0.1360 0.1503 21.5 14.3 7.1
9 Elvis Andrus 0.1399 0.1510 0.1524 11.8 5.0 6.8
10 Justin Smoak 0.0180 0.0090 0.0000 8.6 2.0 6.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Rajai Davis 0.0000 0.1457 0.3580 133.7 79.9 53.8
2 Billy Hamilton 0.4720 0.4374 0.3782 54.8 33.7 21.1
3 Jarrod Dyson 0.3867 0.3417 0.2692 43.0 26.0 17.0
4 Jose Altuve 0.1907 0.1716 0.1569 17.6 5.9 11.8
5 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3171 0.2972 0.2927 11.9 0.9 11.0
6 Jean Segura 0.1911 0.1726 0.1429 23.2 13.5 9.7
7 DJ LeMahieu 0.1000 0.0847 0.0280 44.2 34.6 9.5
8 Michael A. Taylor 0.2157 0.1927 0.1828 11.1 1.7 9.4
9 Carlos González 0.0560 0.0375 0.0226 14.0 4.9 9.2
10 Javier Báez 0.1416 0.1226 0.0909 22.1 13.1 9.0

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Scooter Gennett 0.1610
0.1062
(22.3)
0.1105
(21.3)
0.0976
(25.5)
0.1148
(19.1)
Aaron Judge 0.1888
0.1293
(33.6)
0.1107
(47.7)
0.1226
(36.7)
0.1360
(30.5)
José Ramírez 0.1659
0.1200
(23.2)
0.1290
(18.8)
0.1165
(24.1)
0.1234
(22.4)
Charlie Blackmon 0.1890
0.1346
(32.2)
0.1436
(27.3)
0.1419
(25.4)
0.1274
(39.0)
Manny Machado 0.1174
0.1430
(24.5)
0.1372
(19.0)
0.1451
(27.5)
0.1409
(21.6)
Miguel Cabrera 0.0945
0.1364
(27.4)
0.1323
(24.1)
0.1475
(34.4)
0.1252
(20.4)
Tommy Joseph 0.0957
0.1287
(22.9)
0.1263
(20.4)
0.1179
(18.3)
0.1395
(27.5)
Tommy Pham 0.1792
0.1176
(27.4)
0.1359
(18.9)
0.1085
(31.1)
0.1268
(23.7)
Albert Pujols 0.0833
0.1232
(31.7)
0.1196
(28.0)
0.1259
(34.8)
0.1205
(28.6)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Taylor 0.1034 0.1496 20.7
2 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.1266 0.1640 19.1
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1407 0.1777 18.8
4 Hunter Pence 0.1255 0.1020 18.0
5 Ryan Zimmerman 0.1152 0.1562 17.9
6 Gregory Polanco 0.1284 0.0949 17.9
7 Maikel Franco 0.1245 0.1059 17.8
8 Zack Cozart 0.1138 0.1578 17.3
9 Evan Longoria 0.1201 0.1049 17.0
10 Paul Goldschmidt 0.1404 0.1759 17.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1298 0.1777 27.8
2 Carlos Correa 0.1162 0.1705 22.4
3 Hunter Pence 0.1350 0.1020 21.9
4 Bryce Harper 0.1417 0.1931 21.5
5 Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.1364 0.1072 20.0
6 Joey Gallo 0.1154 0.1598 19.5
7 Jose Altuve 0.1323 0.1692 19.3
8 George Springer 0.1401 0.1781 19.0
9 Gregory Polanco 0.1318 0.0949 18.3
10 Chris Taylor 0.1098 0.1496 18.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Taylor 0.0888 0.1496 27.7
2 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.1180 0.1640 23.6
3 Cody Bellinger 0.1041 0.1588 23.3
4 Hanley Ramirez 0.1334 0.1049 22.5
5 Dustin Pedroia 0.1319 0.0994 20.7
6 Victor Martinez 0.1225 0.0874 20.5
7 Zack Cozart 0.1057 0.1578 20.3
8 Jonathan Lucroy 0.1217 0.0936 19.3
9 Jon Jay 0.0936 0.1501 19.2
10 Evan Longoria 0.1202 0.1049 18.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hunter Pence 0.1379 0.1020 23.5
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1364 0.1777 23.2
3 Wil Myers 0.1481 0.1233 21.2
4 Maikel Franco 0.1291 0.1059 19.3
5 Gregory Polanco 0.1340 0.0949 19.3
6 J.D. Martinez 0.1271 0.1738 19.0
7 Bryce Harper 0.1467 0.1931 19.0
8 Ryan Zimmerman 0.1162 0.1562 18.6
9 Carlos Correa 0.1246 0.1705 18.3
10 Lucas Duda 0.1309 0.1018 18.1

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Aaron Judge 0.1107 0.1293 0.1888 47.7 33.6 14.1
2 Trevor Story 0.1439 0.1249 0.1225 16.1 6.8 9.3
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1298 0.1407 0.1777 27.8 18.8 9.1
4 Adam Engel 0.1280 0.1032 0.1012 11.6 4.0 7.6
5 Ezequiel Carrera 0.1367 0.1131 0.1169 8.9 2.0 7.0
6 Mike Zunino 0.0938 0.1117 0.1195 7.8 0.9 6.9
7 Carlos Correa 0.1162 0.1283 0.1705 22.4 15.5 6.9
8 Eric Thames 0.1280 0.1380 0.1506 8.2 1.5 6.7
9 Domingo Santana 0.1141 0.1229 0.1450 14.0 7.4 6.7
10 Joey Gallo 0.1154 0.1257 0.1598 19.5 12.9 6.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Santana 0.1437 0.1288 0.1349 13.9 2.5 11.4
2 Mike Moustakas 0.1299 0.1135 0.1254 9.9 1.2 8.7
3 Nick Castellanos 0.1158 0.1061 0.1098 12.0 4.2 7.9
4 Victor Martinez 0.1225 0.1076 0.0874 20.5 13.1 7.4
5 Cody Bellinger 0.1041 0.1192 0.1588 23.3 16.2 7.1
6 Chris Taylor 0.0888 0.1034 0.1496 27.7 20.7 7.0
7 Miguel Cabrera 0.1475 0.1364 0.0945 34.4 27.4 7.0
8 Cory Spangenberg 0.0907 0.1064 0.1173 7.1 0.5 6.6
9 Eddie Rosario 0.1064 0.1185 0.1341 9.3 3.3 5.9
10 Hanley Ramirez 0.1334 0.1249 0.1049 22.5 16.5 5.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Moustakas 0.0971 0.1135 0.1254 12.3 1.2 11.1
2 Wil Myers 0.1481 0.1338 0.1233 21.2 13.3 7.9
3 Mitch Moreland 0.0937 0.1047 0.1267 14.5 7.0 7.6
4 Charlie Blackmon 0.1274 0.1346 0.1890 39.0 32.2 6.8
5 Steven Souza Jr. 0.1312 0.1183 0.1264 7.8 1.1 6.6
6 Carlos Santana 0.1138 0.1288 0.1349 8.9 2.5 6.4
7 DJ LeMahieu 0.1177 0.1244 0.1393 9.4 3.4 6.0
8 Adam Duvall 0.1348 0.1236 0.1206 14.3 8.4 5.8
9 Cory Spangenberg 0.1221 0.1064 0.1173 6.2 0.5 5.7
10 Ender Inciarte 0.1342 0.1243 0.1295 9.0 3.4 5.6

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Scooter Gennett 0.1952
0.1017
(43.7)
0.0988
(43.1)
0.0979
(45.0)
0.1056
(42.4)
Lorenzo Cain 0.0760
0.1118
(26.6)
0.1179
(33.3)
0.1102
(26.5)
0.1133
(26.8)
Ryan Zimmerman 0.1875
0.1373
(25.8)
0.1306
(27.2)
0.1365
(25.5)
0.1380
(26.1)
Mark Trumbo 0.1078
0.1641
(37.3)
0.1421
(26.5)
0.1577
(34.2)
0.1706
(40.4)
Hanley Ramirez 0.1121
0.1568
(27.7)
0.1468
(24.5)
0.1522
(25.9)
0.1614
(29.6)
Marcell Ozuna 0.1826
0.1290
(32.7)
0.1161
(38.6)
0.1350
(27.7)
0.1229
(37.7)
Carlos González 0.1067
0.1548
(28.6)
0.1486
(27.5)
0.1571
(30.5)
0.1526
(26.7)
José Bautista 0.0948
0.1563
(46.0)
0.1465
(42.1)
0.1460
(39.8)
0.1667
(52.2)
Kris Bryant 0.1098
0.1537
(32.8)
0.1415
(27.5)
0.1451
(28.0)
0.1622
(37.7)
J.D. Martinez 0.2127
0.1448
(30.5)
0.1415
(30.1)
0.1439
(30.3)
0.1458
(30.7)
Marwin Gonzalez 0.1748
0.1043
(33.4)
0.0942
(36.5)
0.1119
(28.9)
0.0968
(38.0)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kevin Pillar 0.1061 0.0665 28.5
2 Miguel Cabrera 0.1559 0.1134 25.4
3 Chris Davis 0.1592 0.1164 25.3
4 Gerardo Parra 0.1028 0.1671 25.0
5 Travis Shaw 0.1208 0.1667 24.5
6 Carlos Beltrán 0.1426 0.1002 24.4
7 Eric Thames 0.1530 0.1143 24.3
8 Anthony Rendon 0.1204 0.1653 23.8
9 Rajai Davis 0.1133 0.0546 23.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Judge 0.1067 0.1681 35.1
2 Gerardo Parra 0.0893 0.1671 28.9
3 Corey Dickerson 0.1320 0.0986 27.1
4 Nomar Mazara 0.1111 0.1640 26.6
5 Guillermo Heredia 0.1085 0.0563 26.4
6 Ian Kinsler 0.1174 0.0848 25.9
7 Trevor Plouffe 0.1316 0.0607 25.2
8 Mark Reynolds 0.1116 0.1636 25.1
9 Anthony Rendon 0.1148 0.1653 24.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kevin Pillar 0.1087 0.0665 31.0
2 Paul Goldschmidt 0.1345 0.1805 26.1
3 Miguel Cabrera 0.1556 0.1134 25.9
4 Cody Bellinger 0.1235 0.1770 25.6
5 Rougned Odor 0.1464 0.1152 24.7
6 Ian Happ 0.1008 0.1646 23.6
7 Eric Thames 0.1502 0.1143 23.5
8 Jonathan Lucroy 0.1248 0.0832 23.3
9 Justin Bour 0.1334 0.1935 22.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rajai Davis 0.1348 0.0546 30.9
2 Gerardo Parra 0.0934 0.1671 29.5
3 Chris Davis 0.1664 0.1164 28.4
4 Travis Shaw 0.1181 0.1667 26.9
5 Carlos Beltrán 0.1478 0.1002 26.4
6 Kevin Pillar 0.1034 0.0665 26.0
7 Anthony Rendon 0.1193 0.1653 25.3
8 Kyle Schwarber 0.1692 0.1214 25.3
9 Eric Thames 0.1558 0.1143 25.2

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Aaron Judge 0.1067 0.1456 0.1681 35.1 11.6 23.5
2 Joey Gallo 0.1026 0.1391 0.1504 20.3 3.1 17.2
3 Adam Engel 0.1237 0.0809 0.0625 23.8 8.0 15.8
4 Manuel Margot 0.1062 0.0848 0.0737 22.3 8.8 13.5
5 Jorge Bonifacio 0.1237 0.0981 0.0948 16.3 3.7 12.6
6 Guillermo Heredia 0.1085 0.0845 0.0563 26.4 14.4 12.0
7 Austin Hedges 0.0940 0.1194 0.1319 11.8 2.9 8.8
8 Mark Reynolds 0.1116 0.1304 0.1636 25.1 16.4 8.7
9 Javier Báez 0.1129 0.1336 0.1476 12.7 4.4 8.4
10 Corey Dickerson 0.1320 0.1229 0.0986 27.1 18.8 8.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Manny Machado 0.1566 0.1448 0.1377 17.7 8.7 9.0
2 Aaron Judge 0.1321 0.1456 0.1681 19.8 11.6 8.2
3 Carlos Correa 0.1368 0.1527 0.1746 15.0 7.9 7.1
4 Cody Bellinger 0.1235 0.1376 0.1770 25.6 18.6 7.0
5 Brandon Crawford 0.1091 0.1224 0.1351 11.0 4.1 6.8
6 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.0688 0.0625 0.0475 19.6 14.2 5.3
7 Jay Bruce 0.1330 0.1428 0.1637 14.8 9.5 5.3
8 Mookie Betts 0.1457 0.1397 0.1433 6.6 1.4 5.1
9 Justin Smoak 0.1214 0.1304 0.1413 8.4 3.4 5.0
10 Alex Gordon 0.1074 0.1000 0.0832 16.8 12.1 4.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Moustakas 0.1024 0.1167 0.1421 21.3 11.9 9.4
2 Albert Pujols 0.1842 0.1687 0.1588 18.8 9.8 9.0
3 Jose Iglesias 0.0664 0.0817 0.1104 19.5 11.4 8.1
4 Kyle Schwarber 0.1692 0.1519 0.1214 25.3 17.5 7.8
5 Rajai Davis 0.1348 0.1133 0.0546 30.9 23.5 7.4
6 Michael Brantley 0.1629 0.1435 0.1387 10.7 3.9 6.8
7 Corey Seager 0.1467 0.1349 0.1256 15.5 9.1 6.4
8 Russell Martin 0.1537 0.1349 0.0959 22.6 16.2 6.4
9 Lucas Duda 0.1623 0.1483 0.1303 17.8 11.5 6.3
10 José Bautista 0.1667 0.1563 0.0948 52.2 46.0 6.2

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mookie Betts 0.2643
0.3083
(35.1)
0.2988
(26.8)
0.3097
(35.2)
0.3070
(34.9)
Rougned Odor 0.2043
0.2747
(49.2)
0.2638
(40.8)
0.2748
(48.6)
0.2745
(49.9)
Ryan Zimmerman 0.3034
0.2491
(28.3)
0.2399
(34.8)
0.2602
(22.5)
0.2380
(34.0)
Avisaíl García 0.3301
0.2595
(36.7)
0.2500
(43.2)
0.2621
(35.9)
0.2569
(37.5)
Marcell Ozuna 0.3116
0.2687
(25.5)
0.2626
(31.1)
0.2726
(23.7)
0.2649
(27.4)
Miguel Cabrera 0.2495
0.3056
(32.5)
0.3104
(33.9)
0.3099
(34.1)
0.3014
(30.9)
José Bautista 0.2027
0.2503
(36.2)
0.2541
(37.4)
0.2488
(34.4)
0.2518
(38.0)
Alex Gordon 0.2080
0.2448
(22.8)
0.2482
(23.5)
0.2472
(23.4)
0.2424
(22.1)
Tommy Pham 0.3063
0.2479
(28.2)
0.2482
(29.2)
0.2514
(26.9)
0.2444
(29.4)
Eric Hosmer 0.3184
0.2774
(24.0)
0.2742
(27.6)
0.2781
(24.3)
0.2767
(23.6)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Maikel Franco 0.2706 0.2296 28.8
2 Aaron Judge 0.2383 0.2841 27.5
3 Manny Machado 0.2912 0.2587 26.1
4 Ian Kinsler 0.2716 0.2359 25.1
5 Hanley Ramirez 0.2808 0.2419 24.4
6 Charlie Blackmon 0.2930 0.3307 23.6
7 Justin Smoak 0.2274 0.2696 23.6
8 Kyle Schwarber 0.2537 0.2109 23.4
9 Josh Reddick 0.2668 0.3145 22.9
10 Mike Napoli 0.2340 0.1929 22.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Engel 0.2662 0.1661 34.7
2 Aaron Judge 0.2335 0.2841 32.2
3 Ian Kinsler 0.2823 0.2359 30.3
4 José Ramírez 0.2744 0.3179 26.1
5 Justin Smoak 0.2263 0.2696 25.7
6 Dansby Swanson 0.2727 0.2316 24.4
7 Chris Taylor 0.2422 0.2879 24.2
8 Zack Cozart 0.2459 0.2968 24.2
9 Mike Napoli 0.2391 0.1929 23.9
10 Charlie Blackmon 0.2949 0.3307 23.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Maikel Franco 0.2715 0.2296 28.7
2 Kyle Schwarber 0.2643 0.2109 27.9
3 Charlie Blackmon 0.2883 0.3307 27.8
4 Manny Machado 0.2936 0.2587 26.9
5 Justin Smoak 0.2244 0.2696 26.2
6 Marwin Gonzalez 0.2513 0.3033 24.7
7 Tim Beckham 0.2313 0.2777 24.3
8 Hanley Ramirez 0.2814 0.2419 24.1
9 Josh Reddick 0.2669 0.3145 23.5
10 Zack Cozart 0.2466 0.2968 23.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Judge 0.2291 0.2841 32.9
2 Maikel Franco 0.2697 0.2296 29.0
3 Ian Kinsler 0.2754 0.2359 28.1
4 Manny Machado 0.2889 0.2587 25.2
5 Hanley Ramirez 0.2803 0.2419 24.7
6 Carlos Beltrán 0.2712 0.2313 23.6
7 Mike Napoli 0.2335 0.1929 22.8
8 Francisco Lindor 0.2980 0.2734 22.4
9 Josh Reddick 0.2667 0.3145 22.3
10 Brad Miller 0.2479 0.2012 21.6

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adam Engel 0.2662 0.2162 0.1661 34.7 18.6 16.1
2 Matt Davidson 0.2554 0.2069 0.2198 17.2 3.4 13.8
3 Hunter Renfroe 0.2709 0.2440 0.2315 20.4 8.5 11.9
4 Keon Broxton 0.2456 0.2188 0.2198 13.4 2.0 11.4
5 Chris Taylor 0.2422 0.2560 0.2879 24.2 15.2 9.1
6 José Ramírez 0.2744 0.2858 0.3179 26.1 17.4 8.8
7 Dansby Swanson 0.2727 0.2560 0.2316 24.4 16.3 8.0
8 Byron Buxton 0.2316 0.2510 0.2532 9.5 1.5 7.9
9 Ben Gamel 0.2404 0.2526 0.2750 17.4 9.5 7.9
10 Leury García 0.2275 0.2494 0.2700 12.8 5.0 7.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Eric Thames 0.2715 0.2590 0.2473 15.6 9.3 6.2
2 Matt Holliday 0.2714 0.2576 0.2306 19.2 13.8 5.4
3 David Peralta 0.2723 0.2792 0.2933 9.8 5.1 4.6
4 Kyle Schwarber 0.2643 0.2537 0.2109 27.9 23.4 4.6
5 Adam Duvall 0.2330 0.2385 0.2487 7.5 3.2 4.3
6 Eduardo Núñez 0.2679 0.2755 0.3126 20.0 15.6 4.3
7 Charlie Blackmon 0.2883 0.2930 0.3307 27.8 23.6 4.2
8 Christian Yelich 0.2942 0.2874 0.2824 11.0 7.1 3.9
9 Adam Engel 0.2284 0.2162 0.1661 22.3 18.6 3.7
10 Trea Turner 0.3009 0.2915 0.2840 9.4 5.7 3.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ryan Zimmerman 0.2380 0.2491 0.3034 34.0 28.3 5.7
2 Yuli Gurriel 0.2543 0.2652 0.2987 21.4 15.9 5.5
3 Ben Gamel 0.2416 0.2526 0.2750 14.9 9.5 5.4
4 Aaron Judge 0.2291 0.2383 0.2841 32.9 27.5 5.4
5 Martín Maldonado 0.2000 0.2115 0.2214 7.1 2.2 4.9
6 Byron Buxton 0.2587 0.2510 0.2532 6.1 1.5 4.5
7 Edwin Encarnación 0.2646 0.2591 0.2581 8.7 4.2 4.5
8 Giancarlo Stanton 0.2542 0.2612 0.2814 14.4 10.3 4.1
9 José Reyes 0.2673 0.2615 0.2455 15.8 11.9 3.9
10 Francisco Lindor 0.2980 0.2940 0.2734 22.4 18.7 3.8

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Héctor Santiago 311
736
(425.1)
717
(406.0)
782
(471.2)
690
(379.0)
Collin McHugh 271
726
(455.1)
729
(458.0)
687
(416.2)
765
(494.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Félix Hernández 815 368 446.8
2 David Price 732 317 414.9
3 Madison Bumgarner 862 450 411.6
4 Clayton Richard 469 858 389.0
5 Matt Shoemaker 714 326 388.0
6 Zack Godley 249 627 378.3
7 Wily Peralta 642 269 372.9
8 Junior Guerra 687 314 372.8
9 Carlos Rodón 667 297 370.1
10 Tom Koehler 670 334 335.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kyle Freeland 100 688 588.0
2 Clayton Richard 302 858 556.0
3 Jordan Montgomery 100 649 549.0
4 Chad Bettis 701 200 501.0
5 David Price 803 317 486.0
6 Nick Pivetta 100 584 484.0
7 Trevor Williams 160 642 482.0
8 Ty Blach 214 692 478.0
9 Jason Vargas 292 756 464.0
10 Antonio Senzatela 100 564 464.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Pelfrey 4 546 541.6
2 Junior Guerra 835 314 520.5
3 Félix Hernández 865 368 496.7
4 Matt Shoemaker 809 326 483.0
5 Dinelson Lamet 4 485 480.6
6 Drew Pomeranz 272 740 468.1
7 Zack Godley 165 627 461.6
8 Nick Pivetta 127 584 456.9
9 Sean Newcomb 4 456 451.5
10 Parker Bridwell 42 492 450.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 David Price 914 317 597.0
2 Clayton Richard 295 858 563.0
3 Chad Bettis 745 200 545.0
4 Justin Nicolino 710 229 481.0
5 Jason Vargas 278 756 478.0
6 Jake Thompson 668 210 458.0
7 Carlos Rodón 723 297 426.0
8 Madison Bumgarner 865 450 415.0
9 Andrew Moore 656 243 413.0
10 Wily Peralta 668 269 399.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Trevor Williams 160 579 642 482.0 63.0 419.0
2 Kyle Freeland 100 504 688 588.0 184.5 403.5
3 Germán Márquez 239 629 701 462.0 71.7 390.3
4 Chad Bettis 701 375 200 501.0 174.7 326.3
5 Ty Blach 214 514 692 478.0 178.0 300.0
6 Jordan Montgomery 100 383 649 549.0 265.8 283.2
7 Ben Lively 100 364 372 272.0 8.3 263.7
8 Nick Pivetta 100 364 584 484.0 220.5 263.5
9 Jakob Junis 100 357 422 322.0 65.4 256.6
10 Jake Faria 100 358 357 257.0 0.6 256.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Daniel Gossett 4 310 414 409.6 104.3 305.3
2 Dinelson Lamet 4 308 485 480.6 176.8 303.8
3 Austin Pruitt 39 330 371 331.8 40.9 290.9
4 Sam Gaviglio 4 291 313 308.6 22.3 286.3
5 Sean Newcomb 4 291 456 451.5 165.3 286.3
6 Jakob Junis 82 357 422 339.8 65.4 274.4
7 Nick Martinez 81 355 478 397.1 123.1 274.1
8 Sal Romano 80 347 384 303.6 36.8 266.8
9 Mark Leiter Jr. 4 268 395 390.6 126.8 263.8
10 Ben Lively 103 364 372 268.6 8.3 260.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chad Bettis 745 375 200 545.0 174.7 370.3
2 Andrew Moore 656 330 243 413.0 87.1 325.9
3 David Holmberg 630 317 272 358.0 45.2 312.8
4 Francis Martes 522 263 249 273.0 14.2 258.8
5 Bud Norris 558 300 267 291.0 33.0 258.0
6 Paul Blackburn 533 287 238 295.0 49.1 245.9
7 Ben Lively 624 364 372 252.0 8.3 243.7
8 Sam Gaviglio 577 291 313 264.0 22.3 241.7
9 Jake Faria 592 358 357 235.0 0.6 234.4
10 Odrisamer Despaigne 505 274 254 251.0 20.0 231.0

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Corey Knebel 0.4078
0.2843
(34.4)
0.2338
(51.5)
0.2789
(36.3)
0.2898
(32.5)
Chad Green 0.4071
0.2121
(46.3)
0.2258
(44.0)
0.2165
(45.4)
0.2077
(47.2)
Brad Peacock 0.2949
0.2127
(38.3)
0.2086
(43.0)
0.2193
(35.1)
0.2061
(41.5)
Jimmy Nelson 0.2734
0.1869
(54.2)
0.1880
(56.7)
0.1851
(56.0)
0.1887
(52.4)
Ty Blach 0.1055
0.1544
(42.2)
0.2009
(71.2)
0.1675
(50.8)
0.1414
(33.6)
Jeremy Hellickson 0.1381
0.1941
(47.3)
0.1989
(47.4)
0.1921
(45.4)
0.1961
(49.1)
Zach Davies 0.1518
0.1987
(48.2)
0.1997
(45.2)
0.1972
(46.4)
0.2003
(50.0)
Craig Kimbrel 0.4961
0.3344
(38.0)
0.2983
(48.3)
0.3240
(40.8)
0.3448
(35.2)
Luis Severino 0.2937
0.2185
(49.5)
0.2117
(58.4)
0.2166
(51.5)
0.2204
(47.5)
Corey Kluber 0.3411
0.2595
(54.0)
0.2595
(57.6)
0.2540
(58.8)
0.2650
(49.2)
Chris Sale 0.3619
0.2629
(74.0)
0.2695
(72.3)
0.2515
(84.3)
0.2743
(63.8)
Cole Hamels 0.1710
0.2132
(33.3)
0.2326
(42.4)
0.2126
(32.5)
0.2138
(34.1)
Charlie Morton 0.2642
0.1914
(37.5)
0.1953
(37.9)
0.1976
(34.1)
0.1852
(40.9)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Greinke 0.2080 0.2684 38.8
2 Andrew Cashner 0.1628 0.1222 37.1
3 Matt Moore 0.2196 0.1873 35.0
4 Luis Castillo 0.1650 0.2730 34.4
5 Jacob deGrom 0.2371 0.2890 33.0
6 Dinelson Lamet 0.2080 0.2866 32.3
7 Jose Quintana 0.2092 0.2620 32.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Cashner 0.1984 0.1222 58.9
2 Robbie Ray 0.2447 0.3278 50.3
3 Kyle Freeland 0.2195 0.1555 49.1
4 Tommy Kahnle 0.2143 0.3750 39.2
5 Robert Gsellman 0.2130 0.1494 39.0
6 Jordan Zimmermann 0.1916 0.1445 38.9
7 Max Scherzer 0.2877 0.3436 37.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Greinke 0.2040 0.2684 42.5
2 Matt Moore 0.2264 0.1873 39.8
3 Luis Castillo 0.1587 0.2730 37.0
4 Robbie Ray 0.2616 0.3278 36.5
5 Zack Godley 0.1942 0.2632 36.2
6 Jacob deGrom 0.2356 0.2890 34.8
7 Matt Harvey 0.2193 0.1555 32.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Cashner 0.1773 0.1222 47.7
2 Zack Greinke 0.2119 0.2684 35.1
3 Anthony Swarzak 0.1744 0.3003 34.3
4 Jose Quintana 0.2082 0.2620 32.5
5 Dinelson Lamet 0.2075 0.2866 32.2
6 Luis Castillo 0.1714 0.2730 31.9
7 James Paxton 0.2133 0.2826 31.2

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kyle Freeland 0.2195 0.1367 0.1555 49.1 4.7 44.5
2 Ty Blach 0.2009 0.1544 0.1055 71.2 42.2 29.0
3 Dylan Covey 0.2195 0.1308 0.1327 29.1 3.1 26.0
4 Andrew Cashner 0.1984 0.1628 0.1222 58.9 37.1 21.8
5 Richard Bleier 0.1961 0.1099 0.0981 27.9 6.3 21.6
6 Daniel Gossett 0.2195 0.1637 0.1739 22.0 0.8 21.2
7 Robbie Ray 0.2447 0.2706 0.3278 50.3 30.0 20.3
8 Parker Bridwell 0.2087 0.1636 0.1484 33.3 13.4 19.9
9 Antonio Senzatela 0.2195 0.1580 0.1809 26.0 6.1 19.9
10 Sam Gaviglio 0.2195 0.1521 0.1565 22.0 2.4 19.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 R.A. Dickey 0.1857 0.1714 0.1669 24.6 13.5 11.1
2 Chris Sale 0.2515 0.2629 0.3619 84.3 74.0 10.3
3 José Ureña 0.1811 0.1662 0.1561 26.3 16.1 10.3
4 Brandon McCarthy 0.2190 0.1920 0.1875 16.5 6.3 10.1
5 Ty Blach 0.1675 0.1544 0.1055 50.8 42.2 8.6
6 Carlos Carrasco 0.2465 0.2565 0.2832 20.2 11.7 8.5
7 Brad Hand 0.2413 0.2658 0.3344 25.4 17.6 7.8
8 Zack Wheeler 0.2374 0.2169 0.2098 15.0 7.4 7.7
9 Jhoulys Chacín 0.2008 0.1908 0.2000 9.3 2.2 7.1
10 Mike Montgomery 0.2129 0.1994 0.1852 21.1 14.2 7.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Erasmo Ramírez 0.1379 0.1684 0.2022 27.8 11.8 16.0
2 Andrew Cashner 0.1773 0.1628 0.1222 47.7 37.1 10.6
3 Travis Wood 0.2061 0.1837 0.1491 30.4 20.3 10.1
4 Edwin Díaz 0.3727 0.3378 0.3201 18.1 8.3 9.9
5 Marco Estrada 0.1704 0.1830 0.2184 28.4 18.8 9.6
6 Alex Wood 0.1955 0.2111 0.2459 23.2 14.0 9.1
7 Dylan Bundy 0.2278 0.2162 0.2178 15.9 7.3 8.6
8 David Phelps 0.1877 0.2243 0.2605 14.3 5.7 8.5
9 Jameson Taillon 0.1850 0.1987 0.2129 8.9 1.3 7.6
10 Archie Bradley 0.2297 0.2563 0.2724 8.7 1.2 7.5

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
JC Ramírez 0.4074
0.0643
(210.8)
0.0667
(169.9)
0.0839
(195.8)
0.0500
(229.9)
José Ureña 0.4118
0.1222
(207.4)
0.1143
(167.1)
0.0776
(236.3)
0.2424
(132.3)
Jason Vargas 0.5625
0.3133
(186.0)
0.1818
(237.4)
0.3197
(177.8)
0.3077
(202.8)
Trevor Bauer 0.5312
0.3371
(143.1)
0.2439
(165.3)
0.3629
(120.3)
0.3125
(173.9)
Zach Davies 0.5152
0.3256
(152.3)
0.2500
(162.2)
0.3174
(155.3)
0.3333
(159.5)
Alex Wood 0.5926
0.2032
(237.2)
0.2143
(191.4)
0.1610
(260.3)
0.2917
(193.0)
Ervin Santana 0.4848
0.3415
(121.2)
0.2222
(169.3)
0.3368
(121.3)
0.3462
(131.4)
Chris Tillman 0.0417
0.3398
(133.8)
0.3158
(151.3)
0.3348
(133.6)
0.3448
(128.7)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chase Anderson 0.1918 0.4800 162.2
2 Matt Moore 0.3871 0.1875 160.1
3 Zack Godley 0.0699 0.3077 147.1
4 Brad Peacock 0.1152 0.3824 144.2
5 Jakob Junis 0.1343 0.4500 131.9
6 Ricky Nolasco 0.3460 0.1818 131.6
7 Parker Bridwell 0.2116 0.4762 128.6
8 Charlie Morton 0.3494 0.5600 128.0
9 Ian Kennedy 0.3581 0.1667 127.4
10 Mike Clevinger 0.2016 0.4444 120.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Pomeranz 0.1739 0.5312 215.1
2 José Berríos 0.1429 0.5385 202.6
3 Robbie Ray 0.1905 0.5357 185.3
4 Corey Kluber 0.3158 0.6207 185.1
5 Luis Severino 0.1562 0.4516 179.1
6 Patrick Corbin 0.1463 0.4242 174.5
7 Carlos Carrasco 0.2778 0.5625 174.0
8 Charlie Morton 0.2174 0.5600 170.3
9 Parker Bridwell 0.0769 0.4762 163.6
10 CC Sabathia 0.2051 0.5185 153.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chase Anderson 0.1373 0.4800 190.6
2 Brad Peacock 0.0914 0.3824 154.6
3 Jakob Junis 0.0852 0.4500 150.7
4 Matt Moore 0.3653 0.1875 146.5
5 Ricky Nolasco 0.3585 0.1818 145.1
6 Nick Pivetta 0.0639 0.3077 137.9
7 Mike Clevinger 0.1636 0.4444 137.1
8 Zack Godley 0.0831 0.3077 136.0
9 José Berríos 0.3236 0.5385 127.6
10 Corey Kluber 0.4531 0.6207 124.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Moore 0.4091 0.1875 164.5
2 Zack Godley 0.0606 0.3077 163.3
3 Parker Bridwell 0.1667 0.4762 158.9
4 Charlie Morton 0.3333 0.5600 148.1
5 Patrick Corbin 0.2692 0.4242 139.1
6 Jhoulys Chacín 0.2400 0.4062 137.4
7 Rick Porcello 0.5000 0.3333 135.7
8 Ian Kennedy 0.3793 0.1667 130.5
9 Luis Severino 0.3030 0.4516 126.8
10 CC Sabathia 0.3333 0.5185 123.7

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Drew Pomeranz 0.1739 0.4051 0.5312 215.1 91.0 124.1
2 Germán Márquez 0.1250 0.3420 0.3793 131.6 24.0 107.5
3 Dylan Bundy 0.1892 0.4060 0.4643 145.5 38.5 107.0
4 Chris Sale 0.3333 0.5091 0.5312 111.7 16.2 95.5
5 José Berríos 0.1429 0.3608 0.5385 202.6 107.5 95.1
6 Robbie Ray 0.1905 0.3874 0.5357 185.3 96.6 88.7
7 Alex Cobb 0.1667 0.3482 0.4138 133.9 46.4 87.6
8 Luis Severino 0.1562 0.3266 0.4516 179.1 95.5 83.6
9 Carlos Carrasco 0.2778 0.4451 0.5625 174.0 91.2 82.8
10 Corey Kluber 0.3158 0.4842 0.6207 185.1 103.6 81.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Travis Wood 0.2906 0.0726 0.1026 85.3 11.7 73.6
2 Dylan Bundy 0.3388 0.4060 0.4643 82.2 38.5 43.7
3 Gregory Infante 0.2538 0.0698 0.0385 50.6 7.8 42.8
4 Antonio Senzatela 0.1488 0.2282 0.2778 68.4 26.2 42.2
5 Ty Blach 0.1204 0.1780 0.2353 74.2 37.5 36.7
6 Trevor Williams 0.1337 0.1931 0.2258 54.2 19.0 35.2
7 Zack Greinke 0.3731 0.4196 0.5312 120.5 87.0 33.5
8 Sean Newcomb 0.3089 0.2416 0.2105 48.4 15.6 32.8
9 Chris Sale 0.4679 0.5091 0.5312 47.3 16.2 31.1
10 Jimmy Nelson 0.2836 0.3307 0.4138 89.2 58.2 30.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Archie Bradley 0.3462 0.0957 0.0476 82.7 14.8 67.9
2 Clayton Richard 0.1481 0.1933 0.2500 98.9 46.0 52.9
3 Bud Norris 0.2857 0.0922 0.0333 63.8 16.5 47.3
4 Ross Stripling 0.2609 0.1022 0.0612 56.6 13.4 43.2
5 Nick Goody 0.2538 0.0490 0.0179 49.2 7.6 41.6
6 Jorge De La Rosa 0.3462 0.1424 0.0462 62.8 21.8 41.0
7 Jhoulys Chacín 0.2400 0.2770 0.4062 137.4 96.5 40.9
8 John Brebbia 0.2538 0.0480 0.0000 50.3 10.7 39.6
9 Warwick Saupold 0.2308 0.0835 0.0667 42.2 5.6 36.6
10 Patrick Corbin 0.2692 0.2966 0.4242 139.1 102.9 36.2

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Corey Knebel 0.5132
0.0449
(143.1)
0.0303
(154.8)
0.0523
(140.1)
0.0370
(146.3)
Héctor Neris 0.3514
0.1030
(77.9)
0.0400
(105.4)
0.1692
(55.9)
0.0286
(102.4)
Bud Norris 0.3167
0.0000
(83.2)
0.0263
(82.3)
0.0000
(82.6)
0.0000
(83.8)
Brad Brach 0.2687
0.0146
(68.5)
0.0400
(67.8)
0.0000
(71.9)
0.0317
(64.4)
Felipe Vázquez 0.2877
0.0259
(77.0)
0.0385
(80.2)
0.0219
(77.5)
0.0299
(76.5)
Brad Hand 0.2917
0.0353
(78.2)
0.0208
(89.8)
0.0563
(70.9)
0.0132
(85.8)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 David Robertson 0.5679 0.2295 90.7
2 Ryan Madson 0.3978 0.0333 80.9
3 Jeremy Jeffress 0.2203 0.0000 66.5
4 Luke Gregerson 0.2499 0.0154 63.0
5 Andrew Miller 0.2833 0.0351 61.8
6 Alex Colomé 0.5138 0.7231 57.4
7 Tony Watson 0.3292 0.1408 56.3
8 Ken Giles 0.3154 0.5397 54.2
9 Raisel Iglesias 0.2680 0.4444 52.5
10 Fernando Rodney 0.4163 0.6393 50.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Colomé 0.3158 0.7231 119.5
2 Raisel Iglesias 0.0882 0.4444 114.5
3 Ken Giles 0.1569 0.5397 99.0
4 Kelvin Herrera 0.0741 0.4062 90.7
5 Edwin Díaz 0.2121 0.5152 89.3
6 Fernando Rodney 0.3061 0.6393 81.1
7 Brandon Kintzler 0.1622 0.4028 74.5
8 Roberto Osuna 0.3148 0.5909 73.2
9 Blake Treinen 0.0208 0.2222 71.3
10 Héctor Rondón 0.3111 0.0000 69.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tony Watson 0.5564 0.1408 123.0
2 Greg Holland 0.2673 0.6721 93.4
3 Alex Colomé 0.4213 0.7231 82.8
4 David Robertson 0.4992 0.2295 73.1
5 Ryan Madson 0.3600 0.0333 73.1
6 Sam Dyson 0.5164 0.2545 70.0
7 Andrew Miller 0.3016 0.0351 66.8
8 Ryan Pressly 0.2387 0.0000 62.0
9 Seunghwan Oh 0.5475 0.3226 61.3
10 Addison Reed 0.0516 0.2468 57.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Raisel Iglesias 0.0000 0.4444 135.2
2 Jeremy Jeffress 0.4286 0.0000 127.2
3 David Robertson 0.6379 0.2295 108.6
4 Luke Gregerson 0.3729 0.0154 94.7
5 Ryan Madson 0.4348 0.0333 88.5
6 Héctor Rondón 0.3607 0.0000 86.1
7 Santiago Casilla 0.5660 0.2540 81.5
8 Ken Giles 0.2143 0.5397 79.7
9 Edwin Díaz 0.2368 0.5152 76.6
10 Kelvin Herrera 0.1127 0.4062 75.3

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Wade Davis 0.2750 0.5421 0.5424 69.1 1.1 67.9
2 Kelvin Herrera 0.0741 0.3108 0.4062 90.7 23.4 67.3
3 Brandon Maurer 0.1020 0.3236 0.3235 63.9 1.4 62.6
4 Alex Colomé 0.3158 0.5138 0.7231 119.5 57.4 62.1
5 Raisel Iglesias 0.0882 0.2680 0.4444 114.5 52.5 62.1
6 Blake Treinen 0.0208 0.1868 0.2222 71.3 9.9 61.4
7 Edwin Díaz 0.2121 0.3892 0.5152 89.3 33.6 55.6
8 Brandon Kintzler 0.1622 0.2956 0.4028 74.5 29.4 45.1
9 Ken Giles 0.1569 0.3154 0.5397 99.0 54.2 44.8
10 Roberto Osuna 0.3148 0.4551 0.5909 73.2 32.6 40.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tony Watson 0.5564 0.3292 0.1408 123.0 56.3 66.8
2 Greg Holland 0.2673 0.5006 0.6721 93.4 39.1 54.3
3 Santiago Casilla 0.0327 0.3042 0.2540 55.4 14.3 41.1
4 Seunghwan Oh 0.5475 0.4089 0.3226 61.3 24.1 37.2
5 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0000 0.2562 0.2200 43.0 8.3 34.6
6 Brandon Maurer 0.4501 0.3236 0.3235 35.7 1.4 34.4
7 Sam Dyson 0.5164 0.3865 0.2545 70.0 35.6 34.4
8 Blake Treinen 0.3491 0.1868 0.2222 43.6 9.9 33.7
9 Brad Ziegler 0.0000 0.1619 0.1887 38.3 4.6 33.7
10 Kyle Barraclough 0.1838 0.0927 0.0152 50.3 23.6 26.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Raisel Iglesias 0.0000 0.2680 0.4444 135.2 52.5 82.7
2 Santiago Casilla 0.5660 0.3042 0.2540 81.5 14.3 67.2
3 Jeremy Jeffress 0.4286 0.2203 0.0000 127.2 66.5 60.8
4 Blake Treinen 0.0147 0.1868 0.2222 66.5 9.9 56.7
5 Trevor Rosenthal 0.5254 0.2562 0.2200 62.3 8.3 53.9
6 Kelvin Herrera 0.1127 0.3108 0.4062 75.3 23.4 51.9
7 Edwin Díaz 0.2368 0.3892 0.5152 76.6 33.6 43.0
8 Héctor Rondón 0.3607 0.2010 0.0000 86.1 48.8 37.3
9 Luke Gregerson 0.3729 0.2499 0.0154 94.7 63.0 31.8
10 Brandon Maurer 0.1970 0.3236 0.3235 33.1 1.4 31.7

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Tyler Glasnow 7.6935
3.7362
(1149.7)
4.0068
(1035.4)
3.8646
(1112.2)
3.6049
(1188.2)
Bartolo Colon 6.4825
4.2050
(1354.0)
3.8448
(1520.0)
4.2076
(1356.0)
4.2026
(1352.5)
Chris Tillman 7.8387
4.5165
(1391.6)
4.0784
(1539.9)
4.7206
(1303.5)
4.3114
(1480.5)
Chase Anderson 2.7382
4.6783
(1210.9)
4.2600
(1032.1)
4.7163
(1229.3)
4.6396
(1191.6)
Luis Severino 2.9793
4.1466
(1061.2)
4.4118
(1350.3)
4.0902
(1012.6)
4.2039
(1109.9)
Jordan Zimmermann 6.0750
4.3439
(1100.2)
3.9041
(1339.6)
4.5417
(963.2)
4.1442
(1239.2)
Ubaldo Jiménez 6.8131
4.7273
(1229.8)
4.6616
(1204.9)
4.6469
(1285.5)
4.8100
(1173.1)
Matt Harvey 6.7014
3.7911
(1173.3)
3.7143
(1161.6)
3.7530
(1192.1)
3.8298
(1154.6)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Moore 3.7408 5.5239 1260.1
2 Andrew Cashner 4.9539 3.4020 1224.9
3 Parker Bridwell 5.8657 3.6446 1185.2
4 Ervin Santana 4.4305 3.2792 1157.2
5 Brad Peacock 4.6486 3.0000 1002.8
6 Travis Wood 4.3187 6.7979 999.0
7 Kyle Freeland 5.2595 4.0962 929.7
8 Corey Kluber 3.2622 2.2537 929.6
9 Jimmy Nelson 4.5716 3.4905 923.9
10 Gio Gonzalez 3.8005 2.9552 854.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Gio Gonzalez 4.1530 2.9552 1232.1
2 Robbie Ray 4.4417 2.8889 1226.9
3 José Berríos 5.5519 3.8924 1202.2
4 José Ureña 5.1114 3.8193 1147.0
5 Travis Wood 3.9857 6.7979 1098.7
6 Zack Godley 4.7955 3.3677 1078.4
7 Marcus Stroman 4.0663 3.0896 1058.2
8 Corey Kluber 3.2927 2.2537 1034.3
9 Jharel Cotton 3.5294 5.5814 996.1
10 Dylan Covey 4.2429 7.7143 982.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Cashner 5.1015 3.4020 1324.8
2 Matt Moore 3.6675 5.5239 1322.4
3 Ervin Santana 4.5410 3.2792 1247.8
4 Jimmy Nelson 4.8010 3.4905 1086.8
5 Parker Bridwell 5.6173 3.6446 1060.3
6 Corey Kluber 3.4179 2.2537 1046.3
7 Nick Pivetta 4.2285 6.0226 941.2
8 Brad Peacock 4.5361 3.0000 938.3
9 Aníbal Sánchez 4.4427 6.4082 859.5
10 Amir Garrett 4.5799 7.3868 842.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Parker Bridwell 6.1227 3.6446 1314.1
2 Travis Wood 3.7088 6.7979 1262.8
3 Matt Moore 3.8160 5.5239 1196.9
4 Andrew Cashner 4.8045 3.4020 1123.1
5 Brad Peacock 4.7647 3.0000 1068.8
6 Ervin Santana 4.3177 3.2792 1063.9
7 Kyle Freeland 5.4162 4.0962 1040.8
8 Alex Wood 4.0865 2.7177 958.8
9 Gio Gonzalez 3.8572 2.9552 905.4
10 Marcus Stroman 3.9668 3.0896 892.5

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Berríos 5.5519 4.4311 3.8924 1202.2 447.6 754.6
2 José Ureña 5.1114 4.3428 3.8193 1147.0 515.2 631.8
3 Robbie Ray 4.4417 3.6795 2.8889 1226.9 650.8 576.1
4 Marco Estrada 3.5954 4.3234 4.9839 883.6 380.8 502.8
5 Aaron Nola 4.2520 3.6422 3.5357 698.8 204.1 494.7
6 Tanner Roark 3.3736 4.0476 4.6654 775.8 333.6 442.2
7 Dylan Covey 4.2429 5.7672 7.7143 982.4 543.6 438.8
8 Zack Godley 4.7955 4.2357 3.3677 1078.4 662.1 416.3
9 Bronson Arroyo 4.0345 5.3240 7.3521 974.2 592.5 381.7
10 Seth Lugo 3.5318 4.5280 4.7072 385.1 3.8 381.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Dylan Bundy 4.6667 4.1849 4.2436 422.7 90.2 332.4
2 Chris Sale 3.4952 3.1453 2.8974 664.0 371.0 293.0
3 Rafael Montero 4.4151 4.7771 5.5210 507.9 305.8 202.2
4 Asher Wojciechowski 4.1607 4.8250 6.4973 601.0 414.1 186.9
5 Jimmy Nelson 4.8010 4.5716 3.4905 1086.8 923.9 163.0
6 Ty Blach 3.8273 4.0465 4.7841 535.9 380.3 155.6
7 Jaime García 3.5968 3.8110 4.4140 427.2 279.3 147.9
8 Zach Davies 4.3539 4.1698 3.9042 516.5 370.6 145.9
9 Darren O'Day 3.9433 3.3492 3.4309 166.7 25.5 141.3
10 Wade Miley 4.2961 4.4820 5.6059 820.7 681.4 139.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marco Estrada 3.8429 4.3234 4.9839 764.2 380.8 383.4
2 Luis Perdomo 5.0879 4.6783 4.6741 434.3 137.6 296.8
3 Jhoulys Chacín 4.6703 4.3026 3.8928 742.3 457.3 285.0
4 Travis Wood 3.7088 4.3187 6.7979 1262.8 999.0 263.8
5 José Ureña 4.6385 4.3428 3.8193 732.7 515.2 217.6
6 Alex Wood 4.0865 3.7378 2.7177 958.8 741.8 217.1
7 Jason Hammel 4.0280 4.2851 5.2902 859.8 657.0 202.8
8 Rick Porcello 3.5478 3.7759 4.6475 802.6 605.0 197.6
9 Jake Arrieta 3.0160 3.2731 3.5287 226.2 47.8 178.3
10 Anthony Swarzak 5.0081 4.4294 2.3276 870.6 693.8 176.8

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Tyler Glasnow 2.0161
1.4014
(184.8)
1.3356
(196.5)
1.4048
(185.4)
1.3978
(184.2)
Johnny Cueto 1.4457
1.1683
(174.1)
1.1216
(186.4)
1.2100
(150.5)
1.1268
(197.4)
Bartolo Colon 1.5874
1.2762
(196.0)
1.2395
(201.9)
1.2794
(197.4)
1.2729
(194.5)
Derek Holland 1.7111
1.4213
(175.9)
1.3425
(208.0)
1.4327
(172.1)
1.4098
(179.7)
Chris Tillman 1.8925
1.3874
(220.4)
1.3105
(242.3)
1.4154
(210.3)
1.3593
(230.4)
Chase Anderson 1.0896
1.3747
(167.2)
1.3333
(159.4)
1.3676
(160.1)
1.3819
(174.4)
Corey Kluber 0.8691
1.1258
(206.3)
1.1082
(214.0)
1.1492
(220.4)
1.1022
(192.3)
Luis Severino 1.0397
1.2980
(209.1)
1.3399
(263.5)
1.3128
(216.6)
1.2829
(201.6)
Jordan Zimmermann 1.5500
1.3075
(166.7)
1.2557
(183.9)
1.3241
(158.6)
1.2907
(174.7)
Wade Miley 1.7288
1.3899
(240.4)
1.3755
(230.8)
1.3855
(247.4)
1.3944
(233.1)
Matt Harvey 1.6942
1.2183
(201.4)
1.2381
(180.9)
1.2168
(204.3)
1.2199
(198.3)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ervin Santana 1.3721 1.1262 220.0
2 Parker Bridwell 1.6249 1.1983 214.2
3 Matt Moore 1.2972 1.5315 178.3
4 Kevin Gausman 1.2870 1.4946 162.3
5 Rick Porcello 1.2081 1.3967 159.2
6 Rafael Montero 1.4525 1.7479 157.6
7 Zack Godley 1.3843 1.1419 157.4
8 Jerad Eickhoff 1.2454 1.5234 155.1
9 Matt Cain 1.3762 1.6568 154.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Berríos 1.5152 1.2288 198.8
2 Robbie Ray 1.4065 1.1543 191.9
3 Travis Wood 1.3000 1.7340 173.4
4 Jerad Eickhoff 1.1889 1.5234 171.7
5 Alex Wood 1.2915 1.0569 166.4
6 Gio Gonzalez 1.3418 1.1791 164.7
7 Rick Porcello 1.1777 1.3967 161.6
8 Zack Godley 1.3631 1.1419 161.5
9 Chad Green 1.3398 0.7391 161.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ervin Santana 1.3627 1.1262 207.3
2 Matt Moore 1.2671 1.5315 206.2
3 Parker Bridwell 1.6002 1.1983 199.4
4 Rafael Montero 1.4200 1.7479 178.4
5 Kevin Gausman 1.2732 1.4946 177.8
6 Matt Cain 1.3607 1.6568 166.3
7 Jimmy Nelson 1.4630 1.2490 158.3
8 Homer Bailey 1.3197 1.6923 155.0
9 Jameson Taillon 1.2148 1.4813 154.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ervin Santana 1.3817 1.1262 233.1
2 Parker Bridwell 1.6506 1.1983 229.5
3 Travis Wood 1.3022 1.7340 182.1
4 Rick Porcello 1.1826 1.3967 176.9
5 Jerad Eickhoff 1.2098 1.5234 172.5
6 Zack Godley 1.3929 1.1419 166.3
7 Jon Lester 1.0914 1.3229 165.7
8 Chad Green 1.3679 0.7391 162.7
9 Marco Estrada 1.1701 1.3817 159.1

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Berríos 1.5152 1.3617 1.2288 198.8 87.2 111.5
2 Robbie Ray 1.4065 1.2947 1.1543 191.9 99.2 92.7
3 Sean Newcomb 1.3243 1.5518 1.5700 95.5 4.3 91.2
4 Dylan Covey 1.3243 1.6440 1.6714 96.0 5.8 90.2
5 Blake Snell 1.4579 1.3501 1.3299 89.9 15.8 74.1
6 Aaron Nola 1.2835 1.2098 1.2083 77.3 7.0 70.2
7 Jake Arrieta 1.0526 1.1724 1.2178 91.1 25.9 65.1
8 Marco Estrada 1.1477 1.2548 1.3817 159.3 95.2 64.0
9 José Ureña 1.4143 1.3604 1.2731 128.5 69.6 59.0
10 Jason Hammel 1.2079 1.3083 1.4251 145.4 86.9 58.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Robert Stephenson 1.4282 1.5205 1.5827 57.8 20.5 37.4
2 Mike Pelfrey 1.4710 1.5232 1.5750 54.9 23.5 31.4
3 Warwick Saupold 1.4021 1.5027 1.5160 30.9 1.3 29.6
4 Dylan Bundy 1.3742 1.3273 1.1965 126.5 97.4 29.1
5 Matt Moore 1.2671 1.2972 1.5315 206.2 178.3 27.9
6 Jimmy Nelson 1.4630 1.4199 1.2490 158.3 130.7 27.6
7 Jeff Samardzija 1.2499 1.2143 1.1364 99.0 73.3 25.7
8 Mike Leake 1.3362 1.2987 1.2796 47.0 21.8 25.2
9 Chris Sale 1.1264 1.0916 0.9705 135.7 110.6 25.1
10 Zack Greinke 1.2488 1.2133 1.0725 144.0 119.8 24.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marco Estrada 1.1701 1.2548 1.3817 159.1 95.2 63.9
2 Jake Arrieta 1.0957 1.1724 1.2178 76.2 25.9 50.3
3 Jhoulys Chacín 1.4514 1.4037 1.2699 149.7 109.1 40.7
4 Tanner Roark 1.2598 1.3098 1.3346 47.0 12.4 34.5
5 Yu Darvish 1.2560 1.2186 1.1625 82.5 49.6 32.9
6 Sean Manaea 1.2466 1.2993 1.3992 95.7 63.0 32.7
7 Zach Davies 1.2697 1.3148 1.3537 57.0 24.6 32.3
8 Kyle Hendricks 1.1099 1.1710 1.1885 36.7 5.0 31.7
9 Travis Wood 1.3022 1.3789 1.7340 182.1 151.0 31.1
10 Asher Wojciechowski 1.5521 1.4469 1.4439 34.2 3.3 30.9