2011 Projection Evaluation

Summary

Batting

System PA wOBA SO BB HR R RBI SB BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF wOBA ERA SO BB HR W L SV HLD BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cedric Hunter 705 5 700.0
2 Eduardo Escobar 672 7 665.0
3 Ozzie Martínez 662 23 639.0
4 Lars Anderson 644 5 639.0
5 Iván De Jesús Jr. 671 35 636.0
6 Alexi Amarista 692 56 636.0
7 Pete Kozma 651 22 629.0
8 Alex Liddi 666 44 622.0
9 Chris Carter 668 46 622.0
10 Brandon Laird 644 25 619.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Hosmer 100 563 463.0
2 César Izturis 495 33 462.0
3 Lastings Milledge 440 4 436.0
4 Trevor Crowe 462 32 430.0
5 Jacoby Ellsbury 313 732 419.0
6 Freddie Freeman 221 635 414.0
7 Danny Espinosa 264 658 394.0
8 Adam LaRoche 565 177 388.0
9 Manny Ramirez 391 17 374.0
10 Ike Davis 516 149 367.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cedric Hunter 705 5 700.0
2 Eduardo Escobar 672 7 665.0
3 Ozzie Martínez 662 23 639.0
4 Lars Anderson 644 5 639.0
5 Iván De Jesús Jr. 671 35 636.0
6 Alexi Amarista 692 56 636.0
7 Pete Kozma 651 22 629.0
8 Alex Liddi 666 44 622.0
9 Chris Carter 668 46 622.0
10 Brandon Laird 644 25 619.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Danny Espinosa 264 665 658 394.0 7.0 387.0
2 Freddie Freeman 221 607 635 414.0 28.0 386.0
3 Eric Hosmer 100 648 563 463.0 85.0 378.0
4 Jemile Weeks 100 403 437 337.0 34.0 303.0
5 Darwin Barney 247 595 571 324.0 24.0 300.0
6 Mark Trumbo 213 652 573 360.0 79.0 281.0
7 Carlos Santana 303 563 658 355.0 95.0 260.0
8 Justin Turner 214 531 487 273.0 44.0 229.0
9 Robert Andino 258 485 511 253.0 26.0 227.0
10 Danny Valencia 365 588 608 243.0 20.0 223.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Alex Avila 0.3865
0.3071
(47.5)
0.3196
(43.2)
0.3071
(47.5)
Ryan Braun 0.4270
0.3806
(33.5)
0.3804
(36.5)
0.3806
(33.5)
Michael Morse 0.3927
0.3452
(31.2)
0.3524
(29.8)
0.3452
(31.2)
Mike Napoli 0.4464
0.3674
(37.0)
0.3548
(44.6)
0.3674
(37.0)
Melky Cabrera 0.3482
0.3129
(29.7)
0.3101
(35.0)
0.3129
(29.7)
José Bautista 0.4519
0.3808
(51.0)
0.3696
(61.4)
0.3808
(51.0)
Miguel Cabrera 0.4457
0.4098
(29.3)
0.4045
(36.3)
0.4098
(29.3)
Emilio Bonifácio 0.3296
0.2870
(31.7)
0.2881
(34.0)
0.2870
(31.7)
Alex Gordon 0.3823
0.3329
(38.7)
0.3232
(48.7)
0.3329
(38.7)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.3971
0.3224
(59.7)
0.3222
(63.2)
0.3224
(59.7)
Matt Kemp 0.4229
0.3416
(60.7)
0.3438
(62.4)
0.3416
(60.7)
Adam Dunn 0.2681
0.3995
(61.9)
0.3842
(51.9)
0.3995
(61.9)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jemile Weeks 0.2621 0.3318 33.4
2 Lance Berkman 0.3669 0.4160 32.8
3 Carl Crawford 0.3681 0.3009 32.5
4 Justin Morneau 0.3926 0.2765 31.5
5 Alex Rios 0.3323 0.2704 31.4
6 Jason Heyward 0.3875 0.3146 30.2
7 Carlos Beltrán 0.3520 0.3943 29.3
8 Aubrey Huff 0.3556 0.2994 28.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Curtis Granderson 0.3453 0.3908 39.4
2 David Ortiz 0.3646 0.4127 36.1
3 Jeff Francoeur 0.3078 0.3481 34.0
4 Casey Kotchman 0.3080 0.3566 33.8
5 Casey McGehee 0.3456 0.2778 33.8
6 José Reyes 0.3360 0.3800 32.5
7 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3436 0.2876 32.0
8 Hunter Pence 0.3448 0.3789 30.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jemile Weeks 0.2621 0.3318 33.4
2 Lance Berkman 0.3669 0.4160 32.8
3 Carl Crawford 0.3681 0.3009 32.5
4 Justin Morneau 0.3926 0.2765 31.5
5 Alex Rios 0.3323 0.2704 31.4
6 Jason Heyward 0.3875 0.3146 30.2
7 Carlos Beltrán 0.3520 0.3943 29.3
8 Aubrey Huff 0.3556 0.2994 28.6

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adrián González 0.3864 0.4206 0.4152 28.8 1.0 27.9
2 Freddie Freeman 0.3143 0.3390 0.3492 29.5 10.8 18.7
3 Miguel Olivo 0.3255 0.2826 0.2772 18.7 0.7 18.0
4 Danny Valencia 0.3412 0.3074 0.2986 18.9 1.3 17.6
5 Justin Upton 0.3592 0.3790 0.3894 28.1 11.6 16.5
6 Jay Bruce 0.3464 0.3624 0.3561 14.1 0.3 13.8
7 Curtis Granderson 0.3453 0.3594 0.3908 39.4 26.4 13.0
8 Casey Kotchman 0.3080 0.3252 0.3566 33.8 21.5 12.4
9 Michael Martinez 0.3213 0.2648 0.2390 16.6 4.5 12.1
10 Prince Fielder 0.3919 0.4042 0.4230 29.5 17.7 11.8

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Kelly Johnson 0.2659
0.1873
(46.6)
0.1947
(40.9)
0.1873
(46.6)
David Ortiz 0.1372
0.2136
(47.9)
0.2076
(45.2)
0.2136
(47.9)
Michael Young 0.1132
0.1530
(29.3)
0.1598
(35.1)
0.1530
(29.3)
Nick Markakis 0.1047
0.1491
(33.6)
0.1463
(32.9)
0.1491
(33.6)
Prince Fielder 0.1532
0.1980
(32.8)
0.1918
(29.8)
0.1980
(32.8)
Curtis Granderson 0.2446
0.2029
(26.9)
0.1970
(29.8)
0.2029
(26.9)
Jamey Carroll 0.1137
0.1648
(27.4)
0.1667
(29.2)
0.1648
(27.4)
Justin Upton 0.1869
0.2385
(36.6)
0.2460
(42.8)
0.2385
(36.6)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Sean Rodríguez 0.2768 0.1995 34.8
2 Brandon Crawford 0.2780 0.1409 30.7
3 Mark Reynolds 0.3628 0.3161 30.6
4 Freddie Freeman 0.1730 0.2236 30.5
5 Evan Longoria 0.2121 0.1620 30.3
6 Robert Andino 0.2165 0.1624 29.0
7 Andrew McCutchen 0.1406 0.1858 28.9
8 Miguel Cabrera 0.1677 0.1294 28.2
9 Howie Kendrick 0.1549 0.2041 27.1
10 Carl Crawford 0.1408 0.1929 26.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ben Revere 0.1794 0.0852 47.4
2 Adam Dunn 0.2667 0.3569 42.6
3 Josh Willingham 0.1953 0.2664 37.6
4 J.P. Arencibia 0.1964 0.2737 35.4
5 Aramis Ramirez 0.1598 0.1102 33.7
6 Darwin Barney 0.1700 0.1173 32.6
7 Trayvon Robinson 0.1814 0.3935 32.2
8 José Reyes 0.1190 0.0700 31.3
9 Brent Morel 0.1942 0.1284 31.2
10 Martín Prado 0.1347 0.0881 30.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Sean Rodríguez 0.2768 0.1995 34.8
2 Brandon Crawford 0.2780 0.1409 30.7
3 Mark Reynolds 0.3628 0.3161 30.6
4 Freddie Freeman 0.1730 0.2236 30.5
5 Evan Longoria 0.2121 0.1620 30.3
6 Robert Andino 0.2165 0.1624 29.0
7 Andrew McCutchen 0.1406 0.1858 28.9
8 Miguel Cabrera 0.1677 0.1294 28.2
9 Howie Kendrick 0.1549 0.2041 27.1
10 Carl Crawford 0.1408 0.1929 26.6

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ben Revere 0.1794 0.1031 0.0852 47.4 9.9 37.5
2 Darwin Barney 0.1700 0.1244 0.1173 32.6 5.5 27.1
3 J.P. Arencibia 0.1964 0.2457 0.2737 35.4 12.3 23.1
4 Justin Turner 0.1776 0.1337 0.1211 29.6 7.4 22.2
5 Adam Dunn 0.2667 0.3125 0.3569 42.6 20.7 21.9
6 Casper Wells 0.1825 0.2742 0.2946 26.0 4.3 21.7
7 Carlos Peguero 0.1814 0.3997 0.3484 25.2 8.4 16.8
8 Paul Goldschmidt 0.1814 0.3165 0.2994 20.1 3.5 16.6
9 Luke Hughes 0.1893 0.2500 0.2492 17.6 1.1 16.5
10 Starlin Castro 0.1537 0.1295 0.1343 17.0 1.5 15.5

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Raul Ibanez 0.0574
0.0995
(22.9)
0.0987
(20.6)
0.0995
(22.9)
Alberto Callaspo 0.1082
0.0628
(25.5)
0.0705
(23.2)
0.0628
(25.5)
Dustin Pedroia 0.1176
0.0931
(19.6)
0.0911
(23.5)
0.0931
(19.6)
Andrew McCutchen 0.1313
0.1033
(20.4)
0.1034
(22.7)
0.1033
(20.4)
John Buck 0.1019
0.0627
(21.9)
0.0642
(22.9)
0.0627
(21.9)
Jonny Gomes 0.1290
0.0738
(21.3)
0.0759
(21.8)
0.0738
(21.3)
Cody Ross 0.1063
0.0576
(23.4)
0.0664
(20.9)
0.0576
(23.4)
Joey Votto 0.1530
0.1293
(18.6)
0.1220
(26.3)
0.1293
(18.6)
Chipper Jones 0.0996
0.1544
(26.9)
0.1533
(24.7)
0.1544
(26.9)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1570
0.1193
(27.4)
0.1074
(37.9)
0.1193
(27.4)
José Bautista 0.2015
0.1407
(41.2)
0.1263
(52.9)
0.1407
(41.2)
Matt Kemp 0.1074
0.0750
(23.8)
0.0773
(24.6)
0.0750
(23.8)
Evan Longoria 0.1394
0.1091
(18.6)
0.1020
(24.7)
0.1091
(18.6)
Albert Pujols 0.0937
0.1495
(34.9)
0.1477
(31.6)
0.1495
(34.9)
Ian Kinsler 0.1231
0.1004
(18.0)
0.0972
(22.8)
0.1004
(18.0)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wilson Ramos 0.0293 0.0874 26.2
2 Kosuke Fukudome 0.1398 0.1012 22.0
3 Carlos Lee 0.0597 0.0904 21.4
4 Scott Sizemore 0.0800 0.1235 19.6
5 Melky Cabrera 0.0787 0.0496 19.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nick Swisher 0.1200 0.1496 22.3
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0867 0.1165 21.2
3 Chris Iannetta 0.1203 0.1643 21.1
4 Darwin Barney 0.0810 0.0385 21.1
5 Mike Napoli 0.0926 0.1343 20.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wilson Ramos 0.0293 0.0874 26.2
2 Kosuke Fukudome 0.1398 0.1012 22.0
3 Carlos Lee 0.0597 0.0904 21.4
4 Scott Sizemore 0.0800 0.1235 19.6
5 Melky Cabrera 0.0787 0.0496 19.0

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Darwin Barney 0.0810 0.0521 0.0385 21.1 6.5 14.6
2 José Bautista 0.1263 0.1407 0.2015 52.9 41.2 11.7
3 Mark Trumbo 0.0845 0.0613 0.0436 20.2 8.9 11.3
4 Prince Fielder 0.1399 0.1528 0.1546 14.0 2.7 11.3
5 Ben Revere 0.0852 0.0597 0.0541 12.3 1.7 10.7
6 Miguel Cabrera 0.1074 0.1193 0.1570 37.9 27.4 10.5
7 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0867 0.1006 0.1165 21.2 10.9 10.3
8 Brent Morel 0.0785 0.0512 0.0495 10.4 0.2 10.2
9 Dustin Ackley 0.0827 0.1054 0.1064 11.0 1.2 9.8
10 Ryan Howard 0.1026 0.1129 0.1165 12.5 3.7 8.8

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Gordon Beckham 0.0233
0.0144
(5.0)
0.0119
(6.3)
0.0144
(5.0)
Sean Rodríguez 0.0413
0.0222
(8.4)
0.0150
(11.4)
0.0222
(8.4)
Juan Pierre 0.0098
0.0213
(8.1)
0.0200
(7.3)
0.0213
(8.1)
Robinson Canó 0.0176
0.0091
(5.9)
0.0081
(6.4)
0.0091
(5.9)
Dustin Pedroia 0.0014
0.0102
(6.3)
0.0089
(5.5)
0.0102
(6.3)
Brent Lillibridge 0.0324
0.0093
(5.0)
0.0076
(5.3)
0.0093
(5.0)
Álex González 0.0017
0.0117
(5.9)
0.0108
(5.5)
0.0117
(5.9)
Nyjer Morgan 0.0326
0.0168
(6.9)
0.0148
(7.6)
0.0168
(6.9)
Curtis Granderson 0.0174
0.0048
(8.8)
0.0038
(9.4)
0.0048
(8.8)
Casey Kotchman 0.0213
0.0102
(6.3)
0.0105
(6.0)
0.0102
(6.3)
Brendan Ryan 0.0202
0.0088
(5.7)
0.0082
(5.9)
0.0088
(5.7)
Danny Espinosa 0.0289
0.0135
(10.2)
0.0076
(14.0)
0.0135
(10.2)
Justin Upton 0.0282
0.0059
(15.1)
0.0071
(14.1)
0.0059
(15.1)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Wallace 0.0274 0.0079 7.3
2 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0294 0.0155 7.1
3 Darwin Barney 0.0034 0.0140 6.2
4 Chris Iannetta 0.0261 0.0117 6.1
5 Maicer Izturis 0.0058 0.0162 5.2
6 Mike Napoli 0.0191 0.0069 5.2
7 Prince Fielder 0.0218 0.0145 5.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Quentin 0.0318 0.0476 7.6
2 Michael Morse 0.0114 0.0226 6.4
3 Starlin Castro 0.0105 0.0028 5.6
4 David DeJesus 0.0110 0.0217 5.4
5 Justin Turner 0.0093 0.0205 5.4
6 Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.0084 0.0165 5.4
7 Reed Johnson 0.0219 0.0414 5.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Wallace 0.0274 0.0079 7.3
2 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0294 0.0155 7.1
3 Darwin Barney 0.0034 0.0140 6.2
4 Chris Iannetta 0.0261 0.0117 6.1
5 Maicer Izturis 0.0058 0.0162 5.2
6 Mike Napoli 0.0191 0.0069 5.2
7 Prince Fielder 0.0218 0.0145 5.0

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Danny Espinosa 0.0076 0.0135 0.0289 14.0 10.2 3.8
2 Carlos Quentin 0.0318 0.0387 0.0476 7.6 4.4 3.2
3 Eric Hosmer 0.0086 0.0031 0.0018 3.9 0.7 3.2
4 Sean Rodríguez 0.0150 0.0222 0.0413 11.4 8.4 3.0
5 Jon Jay 0.0082 0.0136 0.0139 2.9 0.2 2.6
6 Casper Wells 0.0079 0.0181 0.0290 5.1 2.7 2.4
7 Ryan Roberts 0.0074 0.0043 0.0036 2.2 0.3 1.8
8 Matt LaPorta 0.0068 0.0145 0.0130 2.3 0.5 1.8
9 Michael Morse 0.0114 0.0147 0.0226 6.4 4.6 1.8
10 Carlos Corporán 0.0099 0.0202 0.0231 2.3 0.5 1.8

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Lance Berkman 0.0777
0.0503
(16.9)
0.0547
(15.0)
0.0503
(16.9)
Mark Trumbo 0.0686
0.0455
(14.1)
0.0333
(21.6)
0.0455
(14.1)
Brent Lillibridge 0.1000
0.0248
(16.5)
0.0279
(16.1)
0.0248
(16.5)
Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.0507
0.0165
(23.8)
0.0167
(24.4)
0.0165
(23.8)
Curtis Granderson 0.0965
0.0651
(22.7)
0.0565
(29.4)
0.0651
(22.7)
Logan Morrison 0.0627
0.0271
(19.4)
0.0244
(21.4)
0.0271
(19.4)
Josh Willingham 0.0838
0.0556
(16.7)
0.0579
(16.0)
0.0556
(16.7)
J.J. Hardy 0.0679
0.0373
(18.1)
0.0337
(20.8)
0.0373
(18.1)
Aaron Hill 0.0175
0.0517
(18.7)
0.0526
(18.6)
0.0517
(18.7)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.0558
0.0159
(30.3)
0.0202
(28.0)
0.0159
(30.3)
Adam Dunn 0.0458
0.1258
(39.0)
0.0947
(23.0)
0.1258
(39.0)
Matt Kemp 0.0867
0.0517
(25.1)
0.0524
(25.4)
0.0517
(25.1)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Morse 0.0480 0.0775 17.8
2 Chris Heisey 0.0373 0.0874 15.9
3 Vladimir Guerrero 0.0526 0.0255 15.2
4 Hideki Matsui 0.0536 0.0270 14.7
5 Andrew McCutchen 0.0307 0.0507 14.5
6 Adrián González 0.0739 0.0523 14.4
7 Jason Giambi 0.0570 0.1494 14.3
8 Jack Cust 0.0749 0.0217 14.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.0795 0.1059 19.0
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0672 0.0955 18.5
3 Adrian Beltré 0.0433 0.0724 16.6
4 B.J. Upton 0.0349 0.0569 15.7
5 J.P. Arencibia 0.0437 0.0735 15.7
6 Carlos Santana 0.0431 0.0634 15.0
7 Russell Martin 0.0243 0.0529 14.8
8 Mike Napoli 0.0745 0.1049 14.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Morse 0.0480 0.0775 17.8
2 Chris Heisey 0.0373 0.0874 15.9
3 Vladimir Guerrero 0.0526 0.0255 15.2
4 Hideki Matsui 0.0536 0.0270 14.7
5 Andrew McCutchen 0.0307 0.0507 14.5
6 Adrián González 0.0739 0.0523 14.4
7 Jason Giambi 0.0570 0.1494 14.3
8 Jack Cust 0.0749 0.0217 14.0

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0672 0.0925 0.0955 18.5 2.6 15.9
2 Ben Revere 0.0309 0.0022 0.0000 13.6 0.4 13.3
3 Darwin Barney 0.0273 0.0041 0.0042 11.8 0.9 10.9
4 J.P. Arencibia 0.0437 0.0622 0.0735 15.7 6.2 9.5
5 Jemile Weeks 0.0358 0.0134 0.0057 12.1 2.7 9.3
6 José Bautista 0.0795 0.0912 0.1059 19.0 10.6 8.4
7 Drew Stubbs 0.0537 0.0405 0.0369 9.7 1.4 8.3
8 Mark Trumbo 0.0333 0.0455 0.0686 21.6 14.1 7.6
9 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.0358 0.0036 0.0000 7.8 0.5 7.3
10 Mark Reynolds 0.0955 0.1139 0.1082 9.4 2.7 6.7

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Alex Avila 0.3631
0.2946
(39.7)
0.2846
(46.3)
0.2946
(39.7)
Hunter Pence 0.3613
0.3049
(40.1)
0.3028
(42.7)
0.3049
(40.1)
Alex Rios 0.2370
0.2971
(32.3)
0.3007
(33.2)
0.2971
(32.3)
Michael Bourn 0.3652
0.3192
(35.8)
0.3250
(33.0)
0.3192
(35.8)
Michael Young 0.3666
0.3126
(39.7)
0.3213
(34.9)
0.3126
(39.7)
Casey Kotchman 0.3349
0.2760
(35.1)
0.2636
(43.2)
0.2760
(35.1)
José Bautista 0.3085
0.2508
(40.2)
0.2563
(37.8)
0.2508
(40.2)
Alex Gordon 0.3568
0.2988
(42.5)
0.2851
(53.3)
0.2988
(42.5)
Matt Kemp 0.3796
0.3199
(43.6)
0.3241
(42.0)
0.3199
(43.6)
Evan Longoria 0.2390
0.3213
(45.2)
0.3189
(42.7)
0.3213
(45.2)
Ian Kinsler 0.2409
0.2899
(32.8)
0.2917
(32.7)
0.2899
(32.8)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jemile Weeks 0.2542 0.3477 42.4
2 Adam Dunn 0.3173 0.2402 36.5
3 Miguel Cabrera 0.3179 0.3646 34.6
4 Victor Martinez 0.2924 0.3430 32.2
5 Mark Teixeira 0.2885 0.2388 31.5
6 Logan Morrison 0.3279 0.2645 31.4
7 José Reyes 0.3016 0.3515 31.4
8 Chone Figgins 0.3117 0.2129 29.8
9 Wilson Betemit 0.3147 0.3907 28.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrián González 0.3028 0.3804 59.4
2 Peter Bourjos 0.2605 0.3316 42.3
3 Emilio Bonifácio 0.3074 0.3624 38.8
4 Freddie Freeman 0.2876 0.3390 36.1
5 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3488 0.2944 35.3
6 Melky Cabrera 0.2835 0.3280 35.2
7 Dan Uggla 0.3092 0.2530 34.1
8 Martín Prado 0.3266 0.2653 32.9
9 Vernon Wells 0.2812 0.2141 32.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jemile Weeks 0.2542 0.3477 42.4
2 Adam Dunn 0.3173 0.2402 36.5
3 Miguel Cabrera 0.3179 0.3646 34.6
4 Victor Martinez 0.2924 0.3430 32.2
5 Mark Teixeira 0.2885 0.2388 31.5
6 Logan Morrison 0.3279 0.2645 31.4
7 José Reyes 0.3016 0.3515 31.4
8 Chone Figgins 0.3117 0.2129 29.8
9 Wilson Betemit 0.3147 0.3907 28.6

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adrián González 0.3028 0.3451 0.3804 59.4 27.8 31.6
2 Peter Bourjos 0.2605 0.3013 0.3316 42.3 18.7 23.6
3 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3488 0.3254 0.2944 35.3 19.7 15.5
4 Miguel Olivo 0.3160 0.2875 0.2691 21.0 7.5 13.5
5 Emilio Bonifácio 0.3074 0.3259 0.3624 38.8 25.7 13.1
6 Dexter Fowler 0.3187 0.3375 0.3475 19.3 7.6 11.7
7 Justin Turner 0.2733 0.2937 0.2907 11.1 0.3 10.8
8 Alex Gordon 0.2851 0.2988 0.3568 53.3 42.5 10.7
9 David DeJesus 0.3216 0.2987 0.2712 22.8 12.1 10.6
10 Freddie Freeman 0.2876 0.3023 0.3390 36.1 25.5 10.6

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Freddie Freeman 0.2615
0.2163
(29.1)
0.2157
(30.8)
0.2163
(29.1)
Hunter Pence 0.2688
0.2303
(26.1)
0.2300
(27.7)
0.2303
(26.1)
Dustin Pedroia 0.2491
0.2120
(27.5)
0.2159
(26.2)
0.2120
(27.5)
Michael Young 0.2813
0.2381
(30.2)
0.2449
(26.9)
0.2381
(30.2)
Andre Ethier 0.2686
0.2139
(30.4)
0.2188
(29.0)
0.2139
(30.4)
Adrián González 0.2822
0.2465
(26.0)
0.2290
(40.0)
0.2465
(26.0)
Casey Kotchman 0.2740
0.2031
(40.2)
0.1984
(44.1)
0.2031
(40.2)
José Bautista 0.2369
0.1693
(44.7)
0.1755
(42.0)
0.1693
(44.7)
Chone Figgins 0.1647
0.2601
(29.7)
0.2648
(30.5)
0.2601
(29.7)
Alex Gordon 0.2489
0.2104
(27.0)
0.2085
(29.7)
0.2104
(27.0)
Matt Kemp 0.2895
0.2393
(35.0)
0.2462
(31.7)
0.2393
(35.0)
Ian Kinsler 0.1683
0.2150
(33.4)
0.2139
(31.1)
0.2150
(33.4)
Omar Infante 0.2283
0.2693
(25.9)
0.2717
(26.1)
0.2693
(25.9)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Evan Longoria 0.2150 0.1648 28.5
2 Colby Rasmus 0.2312 0.1792 27.1
3 Adam Dunn 0.2251 0.1703 26.9
4 Tyler Colvin 0.2120 0.0972 25.3
5 Matt Wieters 0.2512 0.2051 25.1
6 Michael Bourn 0.2469 0.2811 25.1
7 Jemile Weeks 0.1932 0.2500 25.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jimmy Rollins 0.1836 0.2263 28.6
2 Rubén Tejada 0.1975 0.2702 28.3
3 Jhonny Peralta 0.2134 0.2584 27.4
4 Peter Bourjos 0.1860 0.2326 27.2
5 Emilio Bonifácio 0.2490 0.2886 27.1
6 Ichiro Suzuki 0.2923 0.2533 26.2
7 Chris Coghlan 0.2530 0.1651 25.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Evan Longoria 0.2150 0.1648 28.5
2 Colby Rasmus 0.2312 0.1792 27.1
3 Adam Dunn 0.2251 0.1703 26.9
4 Tyler Colvin 0.2120 0.0972 25.3
5 Matt Wieters 0.2512 0.2051 25.1
6 Michael Bourn 0.2469 0.2811 25.1
7 Jemile Weeks 0.1932 0.2500 25.1

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Peter Bourjos 0.1860 0.2301 0.2326 27.2 1.7 25.5
2 Darwin Barney 0.2191 0.2428 0.2436 15.5 0.8 14.7
3 Chipper Jones 0.2373 0.2065 0.2011 17.2 2.5 14.7
4 Adrián González 0.2290 0.2465 0.2822 40.0 26.0 14.0
5 Ichiro Suzuki 0.2923 0.2721 0.2533 26.2 13.1 13.1
6 Ben Revere 0.2229 0.2681 0.2573 17.8 4.9 12.9
7 J.P. Arencibia 0.2026 0.1751 0.1724 13.4 1.0 12.4
8 Danny Valencia 0.2519 0.2315 0.2084 24.8 13.7 11.1
9 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2206 0.2651 0.2864 16.0 5.1 10.9
10 Emilio Bonifácio 0.2490 0.2637 0.2886 27.1 16.3 10.7

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Alex Avila 0.1015
0.0698
(18.4)
0.0632
(22.4)
0.0698
(18.4)
Adam Lind 0.0428
0.0835
(21.2)
0.0840
(21.1)
0.0835
(21.2)
Kelly Shoppach 0.0222
0.0970
(18.5)
0.0909
(16.8)
0.0970
(18.5)
Mark Teixeira 0.0580
0.0841
(16.7)
0.0833
(15.7)
0.0841
(16.7)
John Buck 0.0444
0.0823
(19.2)
0.0839
(19.7)
0.0823
(19.2)
Jeff Francoeur 0.1004
0.0677
(22.6)
0.0617
(26.9)
0.0677
(22.6)
Vernon Wells 0.0378
0.0708
(16.6)
0.0748
(18.4)
0.0708
(16.6)
Michael Morse 0.0976
0.0714
(16.0)
0.0690
(17.8)
0.0714
(16.0)
Nick Markakis 0.0557
0.0847
(19.6)
0.0853
(19.6)
0.0847
(19.6)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1048
0.0835
(15.8)
0.0848
(15.4)
0.0835
(15.8)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.0850
0.0539
(24.0)
0.0535
(24.8)
0.0539
(24.0)
Edwin Encarnación 0.0923
0.0625
(16.7)
0.0638
(16.3)
0.0625
(16.7)
Ben Zobrist 0.1029
0.0657
(26.2)
0.0668
(25.9)
0.0657
(26.2)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Maicer Izturis 0.0584 0.0914 17.1
2 Carlos Beltrán 0.0680 0.0942 16.6
3 Chris Getz 0.0573 0.0171 16.5
4 Ryan Theriot 0.0328 0.0637 15.8
5 Reed Johnson 0.0652 0.1209 15.2
6 Yadier Molina 0.0475 0.0751 15.2
7 Peter Bourjos 0.0439 0.0695 15.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Gordon 0.0723 0.0991 20.1
2 Albert Pujols 0.0883 0.0591 17.5
3 Dexter Fowler 0.0702 0.0989 17.5
4 Carlos Quentin 0.0651 0.0975 16.8
5 Adrián González 0.0712 0.0920 16.5
6 Martín Prado 0.0833 0.0531 16.5
7 Ben Revere 0.0573 0.0218 15.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Maicer Izturis 0.0584 0.0914 17.1
2 Carlos Beltrán 0.0680 0.0942 16.6
3 Chris Getz 0.0573 0.0171 16.5
4 Ryan Theriot 0.0328 0.0637 15.8
5 Reed Johnson 0.0652 0.1209 15.2
6 Yadier Molina 0.0475 0.0751 15.2
7 Peter Bourjos 0.0439 0.0695 15.0

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adrián González 0.0712 0.0962 0.0920 16.5 1.8 14.7
2 Ben Revere 0.0573 0.0308 0.0218 15.9 3.5 12.5
3 Carl Crawford 0.0539 0.0697 0.0729 11.5 2.6 8.8
4 Freddie Freeman 0.0654 0.0814 0.0775 9.2 1.4 7.8
5 Darwin Barney 0.0674 0.0535 0.0487 9.3 1.8 7.6
6 Alex Gordon 0.0723 0.0823 0.0991 20.1 12.7 7.3
7 Lance Berkman 0.0868 0.0748 0.0625 12.9 6.2 6.7
8 Justin Upton 0.0792 0.0876 0.0888 8.1 2.0 6.1
9 Chase Headley 0.0693 0.0810 0.0969 13.1 7.7 5.4
10 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0779 0.0900 0.1027 10.5 5.5 4.9

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Nick Hundley 0.0251
0.0080
(5.7)
0.0078
(5.5)
0.0080
(5.7)
Shane Victorino 0.0360
0.0196
(10.3)
0.0200
(9.6)
0.0196
(10.3)
José Reyes 0.0323
0.0222
(6.7)
0.0220
(6.3)
0.0222
(6.7)
Wilson Betemit 0.0186
0.0043
(5.6)
0.0043
(5.3)
0.0043
(5.6)
Robinson Canó 0.0138
0.0058
(6.3)
0.0063
(5.5)
0.0058
(6.3)
Dexter Fowler 0.0424
0.0327
(6.2)
0.0292
(7.6)
0.0327
(6.2)
Austin Jackson 0.0264
0.0174
(6.9)
0.0187
(5.4)
0.0174
(6.9)
Carlos González 0.0084
0.0203
(5.7)
0.0186
(5.3)
0.0203
(5.7)
Jemile Weeks 0.0230
0.0136
(4.7)
0.0071
(7.1)
0.0136
(4.7)
Dustin Ackley 0.0279
0.0161
(4.9)
0.0071
(8.0)
0.0161
(4.9)
Andres Torres 0.0040
0.0269
(8.6)
0.0248
(8.1)
0.0269
(8.6)
Seth Smith 0.0240
0.0140
(6.1)
0.0133
(5.9)
0.0140
(6.1)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Avila 0.0000 0.0123 7.5
2 Colby Rasmus 0.0056 0.0173 6.9
3 Jimmy Rollins 0.0155 0.0040 6.4
4 J.P. Arencibia 0.0027 0.0138 6.1
5 Tsuyoshi Nishioka 0.0249 0.0000 5.7
6 Ángel Pagán 0.0201 0.0096 4.9
7 Rafael Furcal 0.0143 0.0000 4.8
8 Fred Lewis 0.0234 0.0000 4.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0040 0.0155 7.2
2 Alex Presley 0.0067 0.0347 6.6
3 Peter Bourjos 0.0186 0.0294 6.2
4 Cliff Pennington 0.0161 0.0048 6.2
5 Ryan Howard 0.0120 0.0028 5.6
6 Kelly Johnson 0.0105 0.0192 5.6
7 Jason Bay 0.0144 0.0030 5.6
8 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0000 0.0134 5.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Avila 0.0000 0.0123 7.5
2 Colby Rasmus 0.0056 0.0173 6.9
3 Jimmy Rollins 0.0155 0.0040 6.4
4 J.P. Arencibia 0.0027 0.0138 6.1
5 Tsuyoshi Nishioka 0.0249 0.0000 5.7
6 Ángel Pagán 0.0201 0.0096 4.9
7 Rafael Furcal 0.0143 0.0000 4.8
8 Fred Lewis 0.0234 0.0000 4.6

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Curtis Granderson 0.0199 0.0274 0.0260 4.5 0.0 4.5
2 Peter Bourjos 0.0186 0.0272 0.0294 6.2 2.0 4.2
3 Sam Fuld 0.0062 0.0189 0.0192 4.6 0.6 4.1
4 Alex Presley 0.0067 0.0249 0.0347 6.6 2.6 4.0
5 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0040 0.0113 0.0155 7.2 3.3 3.9
6 Cameron Maybin 0.0120 0.0194 0.0206 5.2 1.4 3.7
7 Starlin Castro 0.0111 0.0176 0.0157 3.6 0.4 3.2
8 Dustin Ackley 0.0071 0.0161 0.0279 8.0 4.9 3.0
9 Ben Revere 0.0064 0.0132 0.0121 3.0 0.1 2.8
10 Eric Thames 0.0071 0.0150 0.0188 4.8 2.0 2.8

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Howie Kendrick 0.1475
0.1153
(23.0)
0.1189
(21.1)
0.1153
(23.0)
Ryan Roberts 0.1550
0.1130
(27.3)
0.1152
(26.3)
0.1130
(27.3)
José Reyes 0.1724
0.1418
(22.1)
0.1344
(26.7)
0.1418
(22.1)
Matt Wieters 0.1307
0.1013
(20.1)
0.0898
(26.7)
0.1013
(20.1)
Aubrey Huff 0.0777
0.1332
(28.0)
0.1304
(26.1)
0.1332
(28.0)
Ryan Braun 0.1733
0.1431
(23.5)
0.1459
(22.0)
0.1431
(23.5)
Bobby Abreu 0.0923
0.1306
(18.2)
0.1365
(21.4)
0.1306
(18.2)
Adrian Beltré 0.1562
0.1252
(20.0)
0.1226
(21.7)
0.1252
(20.0)
Curtis Granderson 0.1968
0.1449
(40.8)
0.1426
(42.7)
0.1449
(40.8)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.1626
0.1370
(24.0)
0.1374
(24.0)
0.1370
(24.0)
Adam Dunn 0.0726
0.1332
(26.5)
0.1248
(22.1)
0.1332
(26.5)
Matt Kemp 0.1669
0.1375
(25.2)
0.1332
(28.5)
0.1375
(25.2)
Brennan Boesch 0.1589
0.0945
(33.8)
0.1034
(29.8)
0.0945
(33.8)
Melky Cabrera 0.1445
0.1002
(36.4)
0.1068
(32.0)
0.1002
(36.4)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Robinson Canó 0.1263 0.1527 22.9
2 Yadier Molina 0.0714 0.1062 21.7
3 Shane Victorino 0.1350 0.1621 20.1
4 Tsuyoshi Nishioka 0.1459 0.0583 19.3
5 Ben Zobrist 0.1259 0.1469 19.0
6 Andrew McCutchen 0.1621 0.1283 18.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jayson Werth 0.1497 0.1063 23.2
2 Justin Upton 0.1301 0.1558 22.4
3 Mike Napoli 0.1268 0.1667 20.5
4 Casey McGehee 0.1167 0.0767 19.5
5 José Bautista 0.1384 0.1603 19.3
6 Adrián González 0.1317 0.1510 19.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Robinson Canó 0.1263 0.1527 22.9
2 Yadier Molina 0.0714 0.1062 21.7
3 Shane Victorino 0.1350 0.1621 20.1
4 Tsuyoshi Nishioka 0.1459 0.0583 19.3
5 Ben Zobrist 0.1259 0.1469 19.0
6 Andrew McCutchen 0.1621 0.1283 18.0

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adrián González 0.1317 0.1599 0.1510 19.3 1.2 18.1
2 Peter Bourjos 0.1082 0.1357 0.1304 16.5 1.1 15.4
3 Johnny Damon 0.1462 0.1306 0.1221 10.7 0.8 9.8
4 Carlos Santana 0.1188 0.1368 0.1277 10.8 1.3 9.6
5 Justin Upton 0.1301 0.1422 0.1558 22.4 14.0 8.4
6 Kevin Youkilis 0.1568 0.1401 0.1315 9.1 0.7 8.4
7 Michael Brantley 0.1114 0.1413 0.1270 11.5 3.5 8.0
8 Vladimir Guerrero 0.1345 0.1206 0.1017 14.9 6.9 8.0
9 Jason Bartlett 0.1313 0.1182 0.0987 15.4 7.6 7.8
10 Casey McGehee 0.1167 0.1034 0.0767 19.5 11.7 7.7

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Alex Avila 0.1488
0.1022
(28.8)
0.1091
(25.2)
0.1022
(28.8)
Drew Stubbs 0.0646
0.1043
(23.1)
0.1199
(33.5)
0.1043
(23.1)
Alfonso Soriano 0.1732
0.1332
(23.3)
0.1296
(25.2)
0.1332
(23.3)
Robinson Canó 0.1733
0.1339
(30.7)
0.1333
(31.3)
0.1339
(30.7)
Andrew McCutchen 0.1313
0.1004
(24.8)
0.0983
(26.5)
0.1004
(24.8)
Michael Morse 0.1652
0.1114
(34.2)
0.1307
(23.3)
0.1114
(34.2)
Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.1379
0.0926
(34.1)
0.1002
(29.2)
0.0926
(34.1)
Michael Young 0.1538
0.1159
(30.1)
0.1186
(28.4)
0.1159
(30.1)
Adrian Beltré 0.2000
0.1389
(35.1)
0.1297
(40.1)
0.1389
(35.1)
Curtis Granderson 0.1722
0.1208
(39.5)
0.1107
(46.7)
0.1208
(39.5)
Josh Willingham 0.1741
0.1184
(34.6)
0.1210
(33.3)
0.1184
(34.6)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.1434
0.0835
(48.1)
0.0863
(46.3)
0.0835
(48.1)
Adam Dunn 0.0847
0.1612
(35.1)
0.1504
(29.6)
0.1612
(35.1)
Matt Kemp 0.1829
0.1375
(35.2)
0.1316
(39.5)
0.1375
(35.2)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Melky Cabrera 0.0912 0.1232 26.7
2 Todd Helton 0.0928 0.1405 26.3
3 Alex Rios 0.1279 0.0772 25.6
4 Pedro Álvarez 0.1755 0.0725 25.5
5 Mike Moustakas 0.1520 0.0822 23.4
6 Victor Martinez 0.1399 0.1731 23.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Logan Morrison 0.0847 0.1371 30.7
2 J.P. Arencibia 0.1116 0.1605 26.7
3 Mark Trumbo 0.1127 0.1518 25.9
4 Jayson Werth 0.1344 0.0894 25.3
5 Andres Torres 0.1149 0.0477 24.3
6 Russell Martin 0.0923 0.1366 23.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Melky Cabrera 0.0912 0.1232 26.7
2 Todd Helton 0.0928 0.1405 26.3
3 Alex Rios 0.1279 0.0772 25.6
4 Pedro Álvarez 0.1755 0.0725 25.5
5 Mike Moustakas 0.1520 0.0822 23.4
6 Victor Martinez 0.1399 0.1731 23.2

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Logan Morrison 0.0847 0.1181 0.1371 30.7 13.0 17.7
2 Ben Revere 0.1076 0.0651 0.0624 18.9 1.5 17.4
3 Adrián González 0.1463 0.1704 0.1636 16.7 0.7 16.0
4 J.P. Arencibia 0.1116 0.1384 0.1605 26.7 13.5 13.2
5 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.1088 0.0576 0.0472 13.0 1.1 11.9
6 Brett Gardner 0.0911 0.0713 0.0612 14.0 2.5 11.5
7 Carlos González 0.1393 0.1599 0.1697 19.8 8.4 11.3
8 Drew Stubbs 0.1199 0.1043 0.0646 33.5 23.1 10.5
9 Mark Trumbo 0.1127 0.1304 0.1518 25.9 15.6 10.3
10 Eric Hosmer 0.1088 0.1265 0.1385 20.1 10.0 10.1

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Cameron Maybin 0.2837
0.1119
(98.0)
0.0816
(112.3)
0.1119
(98.0)
Juan Pierre 0.1317
0.2761
(102.1)
0.2614
(95.3)
0.2761
(102.1)
Tony Campana 0.5714
0.0736
(77.3)
0.0736
(76.5)
0.0736
(77.3)
Rajai Davis 0.5312
0.3534
(60.4)
0.3158
(71.3)
0.3534
(60.4)
Eduardo Núñez 0.2785
0.1409
(46.8)
0.1186
(52.5)
0.1409
(46.8)
Jeff Francoeur 0.1517
0.0355
(76.8)
0.0417
(69.3)
0.0355
(76.8)
Erick Aybar 0.2128
0.1232
(54.7)
0.1042
(63.1)
0.1232
(54.7)
Ryan Braun 0.1908
0.1078
(52.7)
0.0897
(60.8)
0.1078
(52.7)
Jemile Weeks 0.1964
0.0899
(46.9)
0.0736
(51.7)
0.0899
(46.9)
Aaron Hill 0.1591
0.0320
(73.0)
0.0407
(65.1)
0.0320
(73.0)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.2053
0.3280
(89.2)
0.2892
(64.6)
0.3280
(89.2)
Jason Bourgeois 0.4493
0.2126
(59.8)
0.1765
(67.6)
0.2126
(59.8)
Coco Crisp 0.3451
0.2500
(55.9)
0.2323
(63.2)
0.2500
(55.9)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Young Jr. 0.0736 0.3803 70.4
2 Will Venable 0.1333 0.2680 55.7
3 Nyjer Morgan 0.2345 0.1102 53.0
4 Carl Crawford 0.2635 0.1667 51.7
5 Orlando Hudson 0.0483 0.1532 48.0
6 Grady Sizemore 0.1622 0.0000 47.6
7 Mike Aviles 0.0776 0.2295 47.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ben Revere 0.0536 0.2537 94.2
2 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.0736 0.3750 69.2
3 Alcides Escobar 0.0726 0.1926 69.2
4 Sam Fuld 0.0492 0.2469 66.9
5 Jordan Schafer 0.0526 0.2500 65.2
6 Chase d'Arnaud 0.0736 0.4286 52.9
7 Craig Gentry 0.0741 0.4000 49.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Young Jr. 0.0736 0.3803 70.4
2 Will Venable 0.1333 0.2680 55.7
3 Nyjer Morgan 0.2345 0.1102 53.0
4 Carl Crawford 0.2635 0.1667 51.7
5 Orlando Hudson 0.0483 0.1532 48.0
6 Grady Sizemore 0.1622 0.0000 47.6
7 Mike Aviles 0.0776 0.2295 47.2

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ben Revere 0.0536 0.2407 0.2537 94.2 6.6 87.5
2 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.0736 0.2751 0.3750 69.2 23.5 45.7
3 Alcides Escobar 0.0726 0.1529 0.1926 69.2 24.2 44.9
4 Desmond Jennings 0.0926 0.2647 0.2564 45.8 2.1 43.6
5 Starlin Castro 0.0726 0.1198 0.1164 28.2 1.8 26.4
6 Drew Stubbs 0.1705 0.2129 0.2260 34.8 9.5 25.3
7 Roger Bernadina 0.1238 0.2039 0.2125 28.4 3.2 25.2
8 Mitch Moreland 0.0658 0.0253 0.0161 27.7 4.3 23.4
9 Jordan Schafer 0.0526 0.1266 0.2500 65.2 42.0 23.2
10 Sam Fuld 0.0492 0.1163 0.2469 66.9 45.5 21.4

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Alex Avila 0.2953
0.2388
(33.3)
0.2448
(31.8)
0.2388
(33.3)
Hunter Pence 0.3135
0.2769
(27.1)
0.2755
(30.2)
0.2769
(27.1)
José Reyes 0.3371
0.2843
(33.2)
0.2821
(36.4)
0.2843
(33.2)
Michael Bourn 0.2942
0.2589
(28.4)
0.2652
(26.1)
0.2589
(28.4)
David Ortiz 0.3086
0.2600
(31.8)
0.2579
(35.1)
0.2600
(31.8)
Michael Young 0.3376
0.2850
(39.0)
0.2899
(37.8)
0.2850
(39.0)
Casey McGehee 0.2234
0.2717
(26.5)
0.2827
(31.2)
0.2717
(26.5)
Mike Napoli 0.3198
0.2541
(30.1)
0.2563
(30.6)
0.2541
(30.1)
José Bautista 0.3021
0.2489
(37.5)
0.2505
(38.6)
0.2489
(37.5)
Miguel Cabrera 0.3444
0.3037
(30.8)
0.3098
(28.8)
0.3037
(30.8)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.3212
0.2840
(30.1)
0.2792
(36.1)
0.2840
(30.1)
Alex Gordon 0.3028
0.2435
(43.7)
0.2437
(45.8)
0.2435
(43.7)
Adam Dunn 0.1590
0.2515
(43.9)
0.2571
(45.1)
0.2515
(43.9)
Matt Kemp 0.3239
0.2710
(39.2)
0.2740
(39.3)
0.2710
(39.2)
Melky Cabrera 0.3055
0.2695
(28.3)
0.2613
(36.3)
0.2695
(28.3)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jemile Weeks 0.2176 0.3030 39.0
2 Kelly Johnson 0.2749 0.2220 29.9
3 Carl Crawford 0.3123 0.2549 28.7
4 Victor Martinez 0.2857 0.3296 28.5
5 Ryan Braun 0.2947 0.3321 26.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrián González 0.2830 0.3381 44.6
2 Casey Kotchman 0.2500 0.3060 35.6
3 Emilio Bonifácio 0.2547 0.2956 30.9
4 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3175 0.2718 27.8
5 Jhonny Peralta 0.2583 0.2990 27.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jemile Weeks 0.2176 0.3030 39.0
2 Kelly Johnson 0.2749 0.2220 29.9
3 Carl Crawford 0.3123 0.2549 28.7
4 Victor Martinez 0.2857 0.3296 28.5
5 Ryan Braun 0.2947 0.3321 26.1

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adrián González 0.2830 0.3159 0.3381 44.6 18.8 25.8
2 Peter Bourjos 0.2338 0.2591 0.2709 24.5 8.8 15.7
3 Freddie Freeman 0.2513 0.2716 0.2820 24.1 9.2 14.9
4 Danny Valencia 0.2913 0.2656 0.2465 22.9 9.2 13.7
5 Justin Upton 0.2764 0.2915 0.2889 13.2 0.9 12.3
6 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3175 0.2989 0.2718 27.8 16.6 11.1
7 Justin Turner 0.2421 0.2671 0.2598 12.1 1.6 10.5
8 Casey Kotchman 0.2500 0.2647 0.3060 35.6 25.5 10.1
9 Miguel Olivo 0.2590 0.2204 0.2243 13.9 4.0 9.9
10 Darwin Barney 0.2568 0.2703 0.2760 15.1 5.6 9.6

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Alex Avila 0.3887
0.3200
(40.8)
0.3264
(40.2)
0.3200
(40.8)
Hunter Pence 0.3698
0.3257
(33.0)
0.3300
(33.7)
0.3257
(33.0)
José Reyes 0.3836
0.3369
(30.4)
0.3359
(34.1)
0.3369
(30.4)
Vernon Wells 0.2476
0.3127
(31.6)
0.3276
(36.7)
0.3127
(31.6)
Ryan Braun 0.3975
0.3547
(30.2)
0.3610
(29.6)
0.3547
(30.2)
Michael Young 0.3803
0.3338
(35.6)
0.3432
(32.8)
0.3338
(35.6)
Mike Napoli 0.4144
0.3413
(33.8)
0.3360
(38.4)
0.3413
(33.8)
Casey Kotchman 0.3783
0.3299
(30.2)
0.3143
(42.0)
0.3299
(30.2)
José Bautista 0.4473
0.3619
(59.4)
0.3519
(69.5)
0.3619
(59.4)
Miguel Cabrera 0.4477
0.3882
(44.5)
0.3859
(49.8)
0.3882
(44.5)
Emilio Bonifácio 0.3603
0.3144
(32.8)
0.3107
(38.6)
0.3144
(32.8)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.3760
0.3362
(33.0)
0.3355
(37.5)
0.3362
(33.0)
Adam Dunn 0.2923
0.3832
(42.5)
0.3716
(34.0)
0.3832
(42.5)
Matt Kemp 0.3991
0.3266
(53.6)
0.3311
(54.2)
0.3266
(53.6)
Albert Pujols 0.3656
0.4191
(31.4)
0.4211
(29.2)
0.4191
(31.4)
Chone Figgins 0.2412
0.3528
(33.3)
0.3602
(33.9)
0.3528
(33.3)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carl Crawford 0.3595 0.2892 35.1
2 Jason Heyward 0.3927 0.3194 31.0
3 Jemile Weeks 0.2775 0.3402 29.7
4 Alex Rios 0.3212 0.2649 29.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Gordon 0.3324 0.3765 37.7
2 David Ortiz 0.3526 0.3983 34.1
3 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3632 0.3097 30.9
4 Casey McGehee 0.3386 0.2800 28.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carl Crawford 0.3595 0.2892 35.1
2 Jason Heyward 0.3927 0.3194 31.0
3 Jemile Weeks 0.2775 0.3402 29.7
4 Alex Rios 0.3212 0.2649 29.0

Most Unique Misses for On-Base Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adrián González 0.3824 0.4072 0.4098 27.2 5.6 21.6
2 Miguel Olivo 0.3043 0.2645 0.2530 20.6 3.2 17.5
3 Danny Valencia 0.3434 0.3095 0.2944 23.3 6.0 17.4
4 Freddie Freeman 0.3151 0.3328 0.3465 26.7 12.0 14.6
5 Justin Upton 0.3554 0.3694 0.3694 16.6 3.6 13.1
6 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3632 0.3404 0.3097 30.9 18.3 12.6
7 Carlos Pena 0.3463 0.3631 0.3570 12.9 0.5 12.4
8 Casey Kotchman 0.3143 0.3299 0.3783 42.0 30.2 11.8
9 Michael Martinez 0.3248 0.2708 0.2576 13.2 1.9 11.4
10 Dexter Fowler 0.3465 0.3607 0.3633 15.5 4.4 11.0

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Alex Avila 0.5065
0.3652
(83.8)
0.3953
(70.8)
0.3652
(83.8)
Jayson Werth 0.3886
0.4751
(49.1)
0.5000
(61.1)
0.4751
(49.1)
Jeff Francoeur 0.4759
0.4109
(49.7)
0.3962
(63.6)
0.4109
(49.7)
Ryan Braun 0.5968
0.5250
(52.0)
0.5189
(59.9)
0.5250
(52.0)
Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.4603
0.3898
(54.2)
0.3906
(58.0)
0.3898
(54.2)
Michael Morse 0.5498
0.4569
(59.7)
0.4700
(55.8)
0.4569
(59.7)
Mike Napoli 0.6314
0.5055
(59.1)
0.4783
(73.7)
0.5055
(59.1)
Yadier Molina 0.4653
0.3656
(57.2)
0.3761
(55.2)
0.3656
(57.2)
Curtis Granderson 0.5523
0.4936
(48.0)
0.4597
(75.9)
0.4936
(48.0)
José Bautista 0.6082
0.5244
(61.9)
0.5051
(78.9)
0.5244
(61.9)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.5515
0.3967
(121.2)
0.3993
(124.1)
0.3967
(121.2)
Alex Gordon 0.5025
0.4073
(73.1)
0.3987
(83.5)
0.4073
(73.1)
Adam Dunn 0.2771
0.5392
(124.6)
0.5122
(108.0)
0.5392
(124.6)
Matt Kemp 0.5864
0.4580
(95.9)
0.4592
(99.6)
0.4580
(95.9)
Melky Cabrera 0.4696
0.3832
(68.6)
0.3801
(75.4)
0.3832
(68.6)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance Berkman 0.4492 0.5471 63.9
2 Carlos Beltrán 0.4469 0.5250 53.2
3 Justin Morneau 0.5275 0.3333 52.8
4 Jemile Weeks 0.3113 0.4212 52.8
5 Aubrey Huff 0.4646 0.3704 48.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mark Trumbo 0.3842 0.4768 63.0
2 Adrian Beltré 0.4662 0.5606 58.7
3 J.J. Hardy 0.4128 0.4915 54.4
4 Casey McGehee 0.4538 0.3462 54.2
5 Justin Upton 0.4675 0.5287 52.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance Berkman 0.4492 0.5471 63.9
2 Carlos Beltrán 0.4469 0.5250 53.2
3 Justin Morneau 0.5275 0.3333 52.8
4 Jemile Weeks 0.3113 0.4212 52.8
5 Aubrey Huff 0.4646 0.3704 48.3

Most Unique Misses for Slugging Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adrián González 0.5067 0.5689 0.5476 41.6 7.5 34.1
2 Justin Upton 0.4675 0.5051 0.5287 52.9 23.2 29.7
3 Freddie Freeman 0.4020 0.4422 0.4483 40.4 10.8 29.6
4 Curtis Granderson 0.4597 0.4936 0.5523 75.9 48.0 27.9
5 Drew Stubbs 0.4326 0.3961 0.3642 34.8 14.3 20.5
6 Giancarlo Stanton 0.4665 0.4933 0.5368 52.7 32.7 20.0
7 Mark Trumbo 0.3842 0.4116 0.4768 63.0 43.6 19.4
8 David Ortiz 0.4843 0.5089 0.5543 52.8 34.0 18.8
9 Casey Kotchman 0.3785 0.4050 0.4220 34.2 15.7 18.6
10 Prince Fielder 0.5104 0.5302 0.5659 50.4 32.2 18.2

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Craig Stammen 38
645
(607.0)
538
(500.0)
645
(607.0)
Dallas Braden 73
700
(627.0)
706
(633.0)
700
(627.0)
Scott Feldman 129
723
(594.0)
629
(500.0)
723
(594.0)
Scott Kazmir 14
686
(672.0)
668
(654.0)
686
(672.0)
Jon Garland 230
820
(590.0)
764
(534.0)
820
(590.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Elih Villanueva 726 20 706.0
2 Eric Hacker 695 22 673.0
3 Corey Kluber 697 25 672.0
4 Alan Johnson 690 20 670.0
5 Brandon Dickson 690 34 656.0
6 Alex Torres 666 39 627.0
7 Aaron Thompson 663 41 622.0
8 Michael Crotta 678 56 622.0
9 Andy Oliver 668 49 619.0
10 Adam Wilk 673 57 616.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 100 752 652.0
2 Michael Pineda 100 696 596.0
3 Zack Britton 100 666 566.0
4 Joe Blanton 716 180 536.0
5 Tyler Chatwood 100 633 533.0
6 Barry Zito 758 225 533.0
7 Kevin Millwood 747 222 525.0
8 Jeremy Hellickson 250 774 524.0
9 Josh Collmenter 100 621 521.0
10 Dave Bush 682 166 516.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Elih Villanueva 726 20 706.0
2 Eric Hacker 695 22 673.0
3 Corey Kluber 697 25 672.0
4 Alan Johnson 690 20 670.0
5 Brandon Dickson 690 34 656.0
6 Alex Torres 666 39 627.0
7 Aaron Thompson 663 41 622.0
8 Michael Crotta 678 56 622.0
9 Andy Oliver 668 49 619.0
10 Adam Wilk 673 57 616.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Zack Britton 100 634 666 566.0 32.0 534.0
2 Tyler Chatwood 100 601 633 533.0 32.0 501.0
3 Josh Collmenter 100 647 621 521.0 26.0 495.0
4 Philip Humber 171 602 676 505.0 74.0 431.0
5 Guillermo Moscoso 118 511 526 408.0 15.0 393.0
6 Michael Pineda 100 461 696 596.0 235.0 361.0
7 Iván Nova 315 675 704 389.0 29.0 360.0
8 Jeremy Hellickson 250 575 774 524.0 199.0 325.0
9 Ryan Vogelsong 100 396 752 652.0 356.0 296.0
10 Cory Luebke 263 544 555 292.0 11.0 281.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Brian Matusz 0.4750
0.3252
(38.6)
0.3225
(38.2)
0.3252
(38.6)
John Lackey 0.3725
0.3218
(43.6)
0.3253
(37.7)
0.3218
(43.6)
Justin Verlander 0.2469
0.2863
(30.4)
0.2973
(45.3)
0.2863
(30.4)
Matt Harrison 0.3009
0.3489
(30.9)
0.3463
(32.3)
0.3489
(30.9)
Bronson Arroyo 0.3657
0.3191
(46.6)
0.3150
(46.4)
0.3191
(46.6)
Josh Beckett 0.2692
0.3182
(31.5)
0.3298
(43.8)
0.3182
(31.5)
James Shields 0.2758
0.3288
(43.9)
0.3376
(56.8)
0.3288
(43.9)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.3313
0.2846
(44.9)
0.2922
(35.0)
0.2846
(44.9)
Doug Fister 0.2722
0.3358
(48.7)
0.3155
(34.8)
0.3358
(48.7)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.3985 0.2884 69.1
2 Ryan Vogelsong 0.3830 0.2961 59.4
3 Guillermo Moscoso 0.3595 0.2739 40.9
4 Max Scherzer 0.2997 0.3390 39.4
5 Josh Collmenter 0.3508 0.2833 37.0
6 Ricky Nolasco 0.3004 0.3327 35.8
7 Ryan Dempster 0.3105 0.3417 34.5
8 Cory Luebke 0.3385 0.2703 33.4
9 Chad Billingsley 0.2909 0.3206 31.2
10 Brad Penny 0.3350 0.3657 31.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.3061 0.3583 39.7
2 Cole Hamels 0.3108 0.2615 38.9
3 Johnny Cueto 0.3289 0.2658 37.6
4 Clayton Kershaw 0.2895 0.2463 36.2
5 Kyle Lohse 0.3456 0.2955 36.1
6 Tyler Chatwood 0.3156 0.3649 33.5
7 Roy Halladay 0.2903 0.2545 30.1
8 Danny Duffy 0.3156 0.3751 29.9
9 Jered Weaver 0.2988 0.2638 29.1
10 Dan Haren 0.3058 0.2726 28.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.3985 0.2884 69.1
2 Ryan Vogelsong 0.3830 0.2961 59.4
3 Guillermo Moscoso 0.3595 0.2739 40.9
4 Max Scherzer 0.2997 0.3390 39.4
5 Josh Collmenter 0.3508 0.2833 37.0
6 Ricky Nolasco 0.3004 0.3327 35.8
7 Ryan Dempster 0.3105 0.3417 34.5
8 Cory Luebke 0.3385 0.2703 33.4
9 Chad Billingsley 0.2909 0.3206 31.2
10 Brad Penny 0.3350 0.3657 31.1

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tyler Chatwood 0.3156 0.3855 0.3649 33.5 8.0 25.5
2 Charlie Furbush 0.3156 0.3799 0.3685 21.0 1.3 19.7
3 Brian Duensing 0.3061 0.3330 0.3583 39.7 23.7 16.0
4 Jordan Zimmermann 0.3323 0.3140 0.2921 24.2 9.2 15.0
5 Justin Verlander 0.2973 0.2863 0.2469 45.3 30.4 14.9
6 Matt Cain 0.2985 0.2871 0.2643 27.9 13.5 14.3
7 Kyle Lohse 0.3456 0.3316 0.2955 36.1 21.9 14.2
8 Cliff Lee 0.2896 0.2787 0.2673 17.3 3.3 14.1
9 Cole Hamels 0.3108 0.2989 0.2615 38.9 25.0 13.9
10 Derek Holland 0.3444 0.3327 0.3209 16.8 3.3 13.6

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Carl Pavano 0.1068
0.1469
(40.1)
0.1514
(43.1)
0.1469
(40.1)
Michael Pineda 0.2486
0.1800
(46.4)
0.1862
(43.1)
0.1800
(46.4)
Brandon Beachy 0.2860
0.2024
(48.3)
0.1873
(58.0)
0.2024
(48.3)
Cliff Lee 0.2587
0.2112
(42.1)
0.1984
(55.0)
0.2112
(42.1)
Matt Garza 0.2348
0.1868
(38.8)
0.1876
(39.2)
0.1868
(38.8)
Brad Penny 0.0922
0.1380
(38.3)
0.1551
(50.9)
0.1380
(38.3)
Aníbal Sánchez 0.2434
0.1879
(44.5)
0.1860
(47.2)
0.1879
(44.5)
Cory Luebke 0.2775
0.1507
(69.3)
0.1901
(48.2)
0.1507
(69.3)
Ricky Nolasco 0.1661
0.2315
(59.9)
0.2187
(47.3)
0.2315
(59.9)
Jason Hammel 0.1272
0.1782
(39.0)
0.1768
(37.0)
0.1782
(39.0)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Madison Bumgarner 0.1516 0.2263 61.5
2 Bartolo Colon 0.1170 0.1945 52.6
3 Alexi Ogando 0.2454 0.1818 45.3
4 Jeremy Hellickson 0.2070 0.1512 44.6
5 Vance Worley 0.1348 0.2152 43.5
6 Carlos Villanueva 0.2382 0.1498 41.0
7 Max Scherzer 0.2552 0.2089 40.1
8 Koji Uehara 0.1862 0.3498 39.3
9 Vinnie Pestano 0.1818 0.3360 38.1
10 Glen Perkins 0.1163 0.2569 35.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Craig Kimbrel 0.2293 0.4150 56.7
2 Zack Greinke 0.2149 0.2811 47.0
3 Kenley Jansen 0.2262 0.4404 46.6
4 Tyler Chatwood 0.1862 0.1169 44.2
5 Sergio Santos 0.2000 0.3538 39.9
6 Jeff Francis 0.1621 0.1133 39.6
7 Kevin Correia 0.1731 0.1167 37.6
8 James Shields 0.1924 0.2308 37.0
9 Kyle McClellan 0.1852 0.1252 36.7
10 David Robertson 0.2322 0.3676 36.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Madison Bumgarner 0.1516 0.2263 61.5
2 Bartolo Colon 0.1170 0.1945 52.6
3 Alexi Ogando 0.2454 0.1818 45.3
4 Jeremy Hellickson 0.2070 0.1512 44.6
5 Vance Worley 0.1348 0.2152 43.5
6 Carlos Villanueva 0.2382 0.1498 41.0
7 Max Scherzer 0.2552 0.2089 40.1
8 Koji Uehara 0.1862 0.3498 39.3
9 Vinnie Pestano 0.1818 0.3360 38.1
10 Glen Perkins 0.1163 0.2569 35.1

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tyler Chatwood 0.1862 0.1082 0.1169 44.2 4.4 39.8
2 Blake Beavan 0.1862 0.0992 0.1037 33.6 1.1 32.5
3 Craig Kimbrel 0.2293 0.3217 0.4150 56.7 28.0 28.7
4 Zack Greinke 0.2149 0.2505 0.2811 47.0 20.6 26.4
5 Zack Britton 0.1862 0.1341 0.1456 27.3 6.5 20.8
6 CC Sabathia 0.2073 0.2222 0.2335 25.4 9.3 16.0
7 Iván Nova 0.1683 0.1304 0.1392 20.8 4.9 15.9
8 David Robertson 0.2322 0.2872 0.3676 36.7 21.4 15.3
9 Justin Verlander 0.2306 0.2442 0.2580 26.1 11.6 14.5
10 Tommy Hanson 0.2024 0.2275 0.2630 32.4 18.2 14.3

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Francisco Liriano 0.1269
0.0824
(30.1)
0.0858
(25.9)
0.0824
(30.1)
Josh Collmenter 0.0451
0.1113
(37.1)
0.0811
(20.7)
0.1113
(37.1)
Ian Kennedy 0.0611
0.0903
(20.4)
0.0893
(23.0)
0.0903
(20.4)
Josh Tomlin 0.0317
0.0782
(26.5)
0.0775
(28.6)
0.0782
(26.5)
Jaime García 0.0605
0.0946
(22.8)
0.0909
(22.9)
0.0946
(22.8)
Yovani Gallardo 0.0682
0.0999
(21.8)
0.0995
(24.8)
0.0999
(21.8)
Jason Hammel 0.0920
0.0590
(29.2)
0.0681
(19.6)
0.0590
(29.2)
Brandon McCarthy 0.0362
0.0791
(25.1)
0.0861
(32.6)
0.0791
(25.1)
Jordan Zimmermann 0.0468
0.0871
(22.4)
0.0804
(20.5)
0.0871
(22.4)
Clayton Kershaw 0.0592
0.1058
(36.6)
0.1032
(37.8)
0.1058
(36.6)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 0.1591 0.0811 53.8
2 Alexi Ogando 0.1136 0.0620 31.2
3 Dillon Gee 0.0703 0.1006 25.9
4 Craig Kimbrel 0.1888 0.1046 23.8
5 Kevin Gregg 0.0672 0.1455 23.3
6 Nick Blackburn 0.0542 0.0806 22.0
7 Dontrelle Willis 0.1807 0.1108 21.2
8 James Shields 0.0524 0.0667 20.2
9 J.A. Happ 0.0967 0.1189 20.0
10 Tim Lincecum 0.0811 0.0956 18.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kyle Drabek 0.0831 0.1507 25.6
2 Tim Collins 0.0811 0.1627 24.9
3 Aroldis Chapman 0.0863 0.1981 23.7
4 Daniel Hudson 0.0813 0.0543 22.4
5 Tyler Chatwood 0.0811 0.1122 21.3
6 Henry Alberto Rodriguez 0.0914 0.1525 18.8
7 David Price 0.0916 0.0686 18.7
8 Kevin Correia 0.0896 0.0591 18.4
9 Mike Leake 0.0832 0.0548 17.8
10 Justin Masterson 0.0938 0.0716 17.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 0.1591 0.0811 53.8
2 Alexi Ogando 0.1136 0.0620 31.2
3 Dillon Gee 0.0703 0.1006 25.9
4 Craig Kimbrel 0.1888 0.1046 23.8
5 Kevin Gregg 0.0672 0.1455 23.3
6 Nick Blackburn 0.0542 0.0806 22.0
7 Dontrelle Willis 0.1807 0.1108 21.2
8 James Shields 0.0524 0.0667 20.2
9 J.A. Happ 0.0967 0.1189 20.0
10 Tim Lincecum 0.0811 0.0956 18.9

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Blake Beavan 0.0811 0.0496 0.0370 16.8 2.5 14.3
2 Tim Collins 0.0811 0.1290 0.1627 24.9 11.8 13.0
3 Aroldis Chapman 0.0863 0.1460 0.1981 23.7 12.1 11.6
4 Daniel Schlereth 0.0982 0.1520 0.1462 10.7 0.1 10.6
5 Jeff Samardzija 0.1061 0.1377 0.1316 10.7 0.1 10.6
6 Dan Haren 0.0556 0.0485 0.0346 17.5 7.1 10.5
7 Chris Capuano 0.0833 0.0742 0.0661 11.7 1.3 10.4
8 Kyle Drabek 0.0831 0.1134 0.1507 25.6 16.0 9.7
9 Henry Alberto Rodriguez 0.0914 0.1262 0.1525 18.8 9.7 9.1
10 CC Sabathia 0.0739 0.0677 0.0619 9.2 0.7 8.6

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Alfredo Aceves 0.0316
0.0122
(9.8)
0.0116
(9.5)
0.0122
(9.8)
John Lackey 0.0256
0.0115
(11.3)
0.0102
(11.3)
0.0115
(11.3)
Jhoulys Chacín 0.0048
0.0141
(6.7)
0.0116
(5.7)
0.0141
(6.7)
Ernesto Frieri 0.0326
0.0104
(6.5)
0.0056
(7.4)
0.0104
(6.5)
Alex Burnett 0.0356
0.0131
(5.3)
0.0091
(5.9)
0.0131
(5.3)
Brandon Morrow 0.0154
0.0092
(5.8)
0.0091
(4.9)
0.0092
(5.8)
Randy Wolf 0.0144
0.0094
(5.6)
0.0089
(4.9)
0.0094
(5.6)
Dillon Gee 0.0198
0.0108
(7.2)
0.0060
(9.7)
0.0108
(7.2)
Gavin Floyd 0.0138
0.0063
(7.0)
0.0068
(5.5)
0.0063
(7.0)
Erik Bedard 0.0018
0.0127
(5.2)
0.0104
(4.7)
0.0127
(5.2)
Tim Hudson 0.0170
0.0080
(9.0)
0.0084
(7.5)
0.0080
(9.0)
Shaun Marcum 0.0000
0.0087
(6.1)
0.0092
(7.6)
0.0087
(6.1)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Britton 0.0142 0.0015 7.6
2 Matt Cain 0.0044 0.0099 6.1
3 Ricky Romero 0.0098 0.0153 6.1
4 Brandon McCarthy 0.0095 0.0000 5.7
5 Ted Lilly 0.0053 0.0112 5.7
6 Cory Luebke 0.0147 0.0036 5.5
7 R.A. Dickey 0.0056 0.0103 5.2
8 Roberto Hernandez 0.0122 0.0168 4.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Carpenter 0.0114 0.0060 5.5
2 Justin Verlander 0.0085 0.0031 5.3
3 Jake Westbrook 0.0089 0.0025 5.3
4 Matt Harrison 0.0080 0.0013 5.2
5 Doug Fister 0.0077 0.0137 5.2
6 Chris Volstad 0.0083 0.0014 5.0
7 Juan Abreu 0.0084 0.1471 4.7
8 Matt Garza 0.0091 0.0036 4.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Britton 0.0142 0.0015 7.6
2 Matt Cain 0.0044 0.0099 6.1
3 Ricky Romero 0.0098 0.0153 6.1
4 Brandon McCarthy 0.0095 0.0000 5.7
5 Ted Lilly 0.0053 0.0112 5.7
6 Cory Luebke 0.0147 0.0036 5.5
7 R.A. Dickey 0.0056 0.0103 5.2
8 Roberto Hernandez 0.0122 0.0168 4.8

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Dillon Gee 0.0060 0.0108 0.0198 9.7 7.2 2.5
2 Brad Penny 0.0090 0.0073 0.0050 3.3 0.9 2.4
3 Yovani Gallardo 0.0053 0.0044 0.0012 3.7 1.8 1.9
4 John Grabow 0.0103 0.0046 0.0035 1.9 0.0 1.9
5 Charlie Furbush 0.0084 0.0146 0.0161 2.8 1.0 1.8
6 Bartolo Colon 0.0071 0.0058 0.0043 2.0 0.2 1.8
7 Carlos Marmol 0.0196 0.0264 0.0275 2.6 0.8 1.8
8 Edwin Jackson 0.0063 0.0056 0.0023 3.5 1.8 1.7
9 Roy Halladay 0.0072 0.0067 0.0043 2.8 1.1 1.7
10 Joel Pineiro 0.0062 0.0049 0.0032 1.9 0.3 1.6

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Brian Matusz 0.0984
0.0369
(15.4)
0.0367
(15.3)
0.0369
(15.4)
Randy Wells 0.0509
0.0316
(12.1)
0.0306
(12.2)
0.0316
(12.1)
Roy Halladay 0.0148
0.0316
(14.4)
0.0309
(14.3)
0.0316
(14.4)
Bronson Arroyo 0.0661
0.0413
(22.3)
0.0416
(21.6)
0.0413
(22.3)
Matt Cain 0.0137
0.0308
(14.3)
0.0344
(18.0)
0.0308
(14.3)
Matt Garza 0.0243
0.0423
(13.9)
0.0412
(13.6)
0.0423
(13.9)
Jake Arrieta 0.0572
0.0364
(11.6)
0.0296
(14.8)
0.0364
(11.6)
Yovani Gallardo 0.0452
0.0323
(12.3)
0.0322
(11.9)
0.0323
(12.3)
Charlie Morton 0.0105
0.0328
(16.1)
0.0384
(20.8)
0.0328
(16.1)
Colby Lewis 0.0576
0.0419
(14.3)
0.0362
(18.5)
0.0419
(14.3)
A.J. Burnett 0.0542
0.0396
(13.3)
0.0387
(13.6)
0.0396
(13.3)
Edinson Volquez 0.0601
0.0377
(11.6)
0.0326
(13.8)
0.0377
(11.6)
Johnny Cueto 0.0170
0.0392
(13.2)
0.0389
(13.3)
0.0392
(13.2)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.0621 0.0273 22.6
2 Edwin Jackson 0.0435 0.0247 15.1
3 Brandon McCarthy 0.0422 0.0203 14.2
4 Max Scherzer 0.0346 0.0487 12.9
5 Tommy Hanson 0.0277 0.0487 12.1
6 Doug Fister 0.0314 0.0162 12.1
7 Anthony Vasquez 0.0300 0.1083 11.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jordan Zimmermann 0.0455 0.0240 13.7
2 Ricky Nolasco 0.0441 0.0287 13.0
3 Alex White 0.0339 0.0877 12.9
4 James McDonald 0.0293 0.0455 12.8
5 Matt Harrison 0.0389 0.0221 12.4
6 Madison Bumgarner 0.0350 0.0199 12.1
7 Justin Masterson 0.0299 0.0163 11.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.0621 0.0273 22.6
2 Edwin Jackson 0.0435 0.0247 15.1
3 Brandon McCarthy 0.0422 0.0203 14.2
4 Max Scherzer 0.0346 0.0487 12.9
5 Tommy Hanson 0.0277 0.0487 12.1
6 Doug Fister 0.0314 0.0162 12.1
7 Anthony Vasquez 0.0300 0.1083 11.6

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Charlie Furbush 0.0339 0.0559 0.0595 9.8 1.9 7.9
2 Jeff Francis 0.0359 0.0300 0.0284 5.4 0.1 5.3
3 Jordan Zimmermann 0.0455 0.0382 0.0240 13.7 8.5 5.2
4 Aaron Harang 0.0457 0.0386 0.0375 5.4 0.1 5.2
5 Madison Bumgarner 0.0350 0.0296 0.0199 12.1 7.0 5.1
6 Charlie Morton 0.0384 0.0328 0.0105 20.8 16.1 4.7
7 Javier Vazquez 0.0458 0.0409 0.0360 7.2 2.8 4.4
8 J.A. Happ 0.0352 0.0421 0.0438 6.6 2.2 4.4
9 Colby Lewis 0.0362 0.0419 0.0576 18.5 14.3 4.2
10 Ian Kennedy 0.0423 0.0387 0.0298 10.6 6.8 3.8

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Trevor Cahill 0.3023
0.2718
(31.5)
0.2608
(39.4)
0.2718
(31.5)
Guillermo Moscoso 0.2211
0.3174
(48.3)
0.2963
(38.4)
0.3174
(48.3)
Chris Carpenter 0.3118
0.2822
(33.9)
0.2792
(34.7)
0.2822
(33.9)
Justin Verlander 0.2362
0.2949
(52.6)
0.2980
(57.7)
0.2949
(52.6)
Ricky Romero 0.2423
0.3065
(54.7)
0.3031
(53.8)
0.3065
(54.7)
CC Sabathia 0.3179
0.2888
(33.0)
0.2847
(34.9)
0.2888
(33.0)
Jered Weaver 0.2496
0.2847
(28.4)
0.2831
(29.0)
0.2847
(28.4)
Edwin Jackson 0.3302
0.2943
(34.7)
0.2980
(29.6)
0.2943
(34.7)
Félix Hernández 0.3066
0.2823
(27.7)
0.2793
(28.5)
0.2823
(27.7)
Jeremy Hellickson 0.2232
0.2941
(51.4)
0.2874
(47.9)
0.2941
(51.4)
Matt Garza 0.3060
0.2761
(28.8)
0.2748
(28.1)
0.2761
(28.8)
Ryan Dempster 0.3241
0.2919
(32.3)
0.2950
(27.6)
0.2919
(32.3)
Josh Beckett 0.2451
0.3106
(46.8)
0.3112
(49.0)
0.3106
(46.8)
James Shields 0.2584
0.3127
(48.6)
0.3160
(54.0)
0.3127
(48.6)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.3141
0.2790
(32.5)
0.2822
(28.0)
0.2790
(32.5)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ricky Nolasco 0.2940 0.3314 37.2
2 Ryan Vogelsong 0.3333 0.2801 36.7
3 Madison Bumgarner 0.2882 0.3220 32.3
4 John Lackey 0.3025 0.3389 30.3
5 Doug Fister 0.3086 0.2720 28.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.2819 0.3295 35.4
2 Kyle Lohse 0.3140 0.2687 33.4
3 Cole Hamels 0.2942 0.2551 31.4
4 Daniel Hudson 0.2673 0.2954 27.9
5 Antonio Bastardo 0.3033 0.1789 27.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ricky Nolasco 0.2940 0.3314 37.2
2 Ryan Vogelsong 0.3333 0.2801 36.7
3 Madison Bumgarner 0.2882 0.3220 32.3
4 John Lackey 0.3025 0.3389 30.3
5 Doug Fister 0.3086 0.2720 28.1

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tyler Chatwood 0.2905 0.3201 0.3248 23.1 5.8 17.3
2 Mike Leake 0.3079 0.2889 0.2688 25.6 10.9 14.7
3 Brian Duensing 0.2819 0.3024 0.3295 35.4 22.4 13.0
4 Kyle Lohse 0.3140 0.3012 0.2687 33.4 21.8 11.6
5 Zach Stewart 0.2905 0.3281 0.3575 20.5 10.0 10.5
6 Daniel Hudson 0.2673 0.2802 0.2954 27.9 18.1 9.8
7 Joe Saunders 0.2946 0.2859 0.2714 18.4 8.9 9.5
8 Jason Hammel 0.3173 0.3076 0.2800 25.9 17.1 8.8
9 Alexi Ogando 0.2815 0.2711 0.2655 9.6 0.8 8.8
10 Shaun Marcum 0.2785 0.2702 0.2611 12.5 3.8 8.7

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Trevor Cahill 0.2357
0.2026
(32.6)
0.1996
(33.3)
0.2026
(32.6)
Chris Carpenter 0.2610
0.2147
(49.2)
0.2102
(51.4)
0.2147
(49.2)
Justin Verlander 0.1827
0.2237
(36.8)
0.2230
(38.2)
0.2237
(36.8)
Ricky Romero 0.1761
0.2323
(48.7)
0.2311
(49.6)
0.2323
(48.7)
Jhoulys Chacín 0.1767
0.2173
(31.0)
0.2232
(37.7)
0.2173
(31.0)
CC Sabathia 0.2552
0.2189
(38.8)
0.2179
(37.6)
0.2189
(38.8)
Kyle Lohse 0.1841
0.2272
(31.0)
0.2243
(30.4)
0.2272
(31.0)
Ricky Nolasco 0.2500
0.2191
(30.3)
0.2198
(27.7)
0.2191
(30.3)
Félix Hernández 0.2558
0.2145
(42.8)
0.2191
(36.3)
0.2145
(42.8)
Jeremy Hellickson 0.1446
0.2225
(57.9)
0.2184
(56.4)
0.2225
(57.9)
Matt Garza 0.2438
0.2059
(34.4)
0.2056
(32.8)
0.2059
(34.4)
James Shields 0.2003
0.2337
(29.6)
0.2298
(27.9)
0.2337
(29.6)
Luke Hochevar 0.1854
0.2304
(35.0)
0.2234
(31.0)
0.2304
(35.0)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Guillermo Moscoso 0.2360 0.1658 35.2
2 Roy Halladay 0.2193 0.2515 33.0
3 Felipe Paulino 0.2293 0.2769 30.4
4 Madison Bumgarner 0.2195 0.2492 27.7
5 Derek Holland 0.2147 0.2423 25.9
6 Edwin Jackson 0.2195 0.2464 25.9
7 Jaime García 0.2206 0.2488 25.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Lincecum 0.2312 0.1937 32.9
2 A.J. Burnett 0.2294 0.1978 25.7
3 Alfredo Aceves 0.2114 0.1581 24.8
4 John Lackey 0.2232 0.2556 24.7
5 Tyler Chatwood 0.2190 0.2564 24.3
6 Antonio Bastardo 0.2295 0.1220 24.0
7 Mike Leake 0.2389 0.2036 23.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Guillermo Moscoso 0.2360 0.1658 35.2
2 Roy Halladay 0.2193 0.2515 33.0
3 Felipe Paulino 0.2293 0.2769 30.4
4 Madison Bumgarner 0.2195 0.2492 27.7
5 Derek Holland 0.2147 0.2423 25.9
6 Edwin Jackson 0.2195 0.2464 25.9
7 Jaime García 0.2206 0.2488 25.8

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Leake 0.2389 0.2176 0.2036 23.9 7.6 16.3
2 Tyler Chatwood 0.2190 0.2430 0.2564 24.3 10.5 13.8
3 Joe Saunders 0.2253 0.2141 0.2084 14.0 2.2 11.8
4 Zack Britton 0.2190 0.2370 0.2389 13.9 3.3 10.5
5 Jason Vargas 0.2016 0.2158 0.2231 19.2 8.9 10.3
6 Jason Hammel 0.2430 0.2320 0.2109 23.0 13.3 9.8
7 Aaron Harang 0.2393 0.2254 0.2237 10.5 1.0 9.5
8 Tim Lincecum 0.2312 0.2241 0.1937 32.9 24.5 8.4
9 Alexi Ogando 0.2222 0.2048 0.2056 10.9 2.7 8.2
10 Zach Stewart 0.2190 0.2474 0.2624 13.2 5.4 7.8

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Zack Greinke 0.0919
0.0663
(19.5)
0.0662
(19.3)
0.0663
(19.5)
Chris Capuano 0.0929
0.0663
(22.7)
0.0721
(17.6)
0.0663
(22.7)
Josh Beckett 0.0451
0.0705
(18.2)
0.0784
(24.6)
0.0705
(18.2)
Roy Halladay 0.0407
0.0653
(21.5)
0.0605
(17.4)
0.0653
(21.5)
Tim Lincecum 0.0838
0.0630
(20.2)
0.0573
(24.9)
0.0630
(20.2)
Yovani Gallardo 0.0473
0.0667
(15.3)
0.0832
(30.0)
0.0667
(15.3)
J.A. Happ 0.0873
0.0659
(16.2)
0.0638
(17.2)
0.0659
(16.2)
Ryan Dempster 0.0879
0.0659
(20.9)
0.0632
(22.8)
0.0659
(20.9)
Alfredo Simon 0.1092
0.0684
(21.2)
0.0577
(26.3)
0.0684
(21.2)
James Shields 0.0535
0.0712
(15.6)
0.0772
(21.9)
0.0712
(15.6)
John Axford 0.0158
0.0678
(15.4)
0.0738
(17.3)
0.0678
(15.4)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0836
0.0605
(20.4)
0.0636
(17.5)
0.0605
(20.4)
Roberto Hernandez 0.0828
0.0651
(16.1)
0.0608
(19.3)
0.0651
(16.1)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 0.0754 0.0451 21.5
2 Gio Gonzalez 0.0677 0.0417 21.0
3 Jeremy Guthrie 0.0639 0.0836 19.0
4 Tim Wakefield 0.0645 0.0893 17.9
5 A.J. Burnett 0.0694 0.0887 17.5
6 Brad Bergesen 0.0669 0.1032 17.1
7 Félix Hernández 0.0615 0.0431 16.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Daniel Hudson 0.0528 0.0783 24.6
2 Brian Duensing 0.0534 0.0843 22.8
3 Cole Hamels 0.0731 0.0476 20.6
4 Francisco Liriano 0.0748 0.0418 18.8
5 Justin Verlander 0.0676 0.0488 17.1
6 Derek Holland 0.0824 0.0614 16.7
7 Chris Carpenter 0.0618 0.0453 15.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 0.0754 0.0451 21.5
2 Gio Gonzalez 0.0677 0.0417 21.0
3 Jeremy Guthrie 0.0639 0.0836 19.0
4 Tim Wakefield 0.0645 0.0893 17.9
5 A.J. Burnett 0.0694 0.0887 17.5
6 Brad Bergesen 0.0669 0.1032 17.1
7 Félix Hernández 0.0615 0.0431 16.1

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yovani Gallardo 0.0832 0.0667 0.0473 30.0 15.3 14.7
2 Derek Holland 0.0824 0.0679 0.0614 16.7 4.1 12.6
3 Daniel Hudson 0.0528 0.0634 0.0783 24.6 15.2 9.3
4 Jered Weaver 0.0735 0.0641 0.0586 12.8 3.6 9.2
5 Brian Duensing 0.0534 0.0662 0.0843 22.8 14.0 8.8
6 Jason Vargas 0.0724 0.0638 0.0593 10.2 2.4 7.8
7 Jaime García 0.0520 0.0647 0.0614 8.7 1.4 7.3
8 Josh Beckett 0.0784 0.0705 0.0451 24.6 18.2 6.4
9 James Shields 0.0772 0.0712 0.0535 21.9 15.6 6.3
10 Johnny Cueto 0.0751 0.0657 0.0498 15.2 9.0 6.2

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Jeff Niemann 0.0147
0.0059
(4.9)
0.0061
(5.0)
0.0059
(4.9)
Josh Beckett 0.0000
0.0066
(5.3)
0.0071
(5.4)
0.0066
(5.3)
Jhoulys Chacín 0.0159
0.0074
(6.7)
0.0060
(8.3)
0.0074
(6.7)
Cory Gearrin 0.0652
0.0054
(5.1)
0.0069
(5.0)
0.0054
(5.1)
Mat Latos 0.0168
0.0059
(8.4)
0.0044
(10.0)
0.0059
(8.4)
Danny Duffy 0.0253
0.0080
(8.1)
0.0069
(8.8)
0.0080
(8.1)
Livan Hernandez 0.0137
0.0063
(5.3)
0.0067
(5.3)
0.0063
(5.3)
Aaron Cook 0.0175
0.0058
(5.0)
0.0065
(4.9)
0.0058
(5.0)
Ryan Dempster 0.0138
0.0056
(6.9)
0.0057
(7.2)
0.0056
(6.9)
Jeff Karstens 0.0000
0.0070
(4.9)
0.0107
(7.1)
0.0070
(4.9)
Kerry Wood 0.0294
0.0077
(4.8)
0.0069
(5.1)
0.0077
(4.8)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0223
0.0067
(12.5)
0.0075
(12.3)
0.0067
(12.5)
Johnny Cueto 0.0000
0.0071
(4.7)
0.0077
(4.8)
0.0071
(4.7)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Luke Hochevar 0.0065 0.0179 9.2
2 Derek Holland 0.0082 0.0017 5.7
3 Vinnie Pestano 0.0067 0.0299 5.7
4 Jake Westbrook 0.0062 0.0130 5.3
5 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0067 0.0130 4.9
6 Zack Greinke 0.0066 0.0135 4.6
7 Roberto Hernandez 0.0067 0.0016 4.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Lincecum 0.0099 0.0035 5.7
2 Chad Billingsley 0.0099 0.0035 5.2
3 Guillermo Moscoso 0.0123 0.0025 5.1
4 Joel Pineiro 0.0119 0.0039 5.0
5 Bartolo Colon 0.0050 0.0121 5.0
6 Jason Marquis 0.0085 0.0000 4.9
7 Rick Porcello 0.0056 0.0115 4.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Luke Hochevar 0.0065 0.0179 9.2
2 Derek Holland 0.0082 0.0017 5.7
3 Vinnie Pestano 0.0067 0.0299 5.7
4 Jake Westbrook 0.0062 0.0130 5.3
5 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0067 0.0130 4.9
6 Zack Greinke 0.0066 0.0135 4.6
7 Roberto Hernandez 0.0067 0.0016 4.5

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brandon Morrow 0.0029 0.0076 0.0085 4.4 0.4 4.0
2 Tim Lincecum 0.0099 0.0056 0.0035 5.7 2.2 3.5
3 Joel Pineiro 0.0119 0.0062 0.0039 5.0 1.6 3.4
4 J.A. Happ 0.0030 0.0073 0.0087 4.0 0.8 3.3
5 Félix Hernández 0.0033 0.0063 0.0077 4.3 1.0 3.3
6 Jon Lester 0.0040 0.0075 0.0078 3.2 0.0 3.2
7 R.A. Dickey 0.0095 0.0054 0.0061 3.0 0.2 2.7
8 Shaun Marcum 0.0088 0.0051 0.0051 2.9 0.2 2.7
9 Dillon Gee 0.0042 0.0076 0.0082 2.8 0.2 2.7
10 Doug Fister 0.0040 0.0076 0.0075 3.1 0.4 2.7

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Brian Matusz 0.2449
0.1195
(31.7)
0.1163
(32.0)
0.1195
(31.7)
Ryan Vogelsong 0.0824
0.1490
(47.0)
0.1123
(21.0)
0.1490
(47.0)
John Lackey 0.1602
0.1151
(36.5)
0.1175
(33.1)
0.1151
(36.5)
Tim Wakefield 0.1625
0.1296
(25.0)
0.1297
(23.5)
0.1296
(25.0)
J.A. Happ 0.1476
0.1183
(23.2)
0.0987
(35.4)
0.1183
(23.2)
Jered Weaver 0.0702
0.1017
(25.4)
0.1024
(28.0)
0.1017
(25.4)
James Shields 0.0851
0.1223
(32.3)
0.1274
(39.3)
0.1223
(32.3)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1350
0.0865
(43.2)
0.0961
(33.6)
0.0865
(43.2)
Doug Fister 0.0869
0.1276
(32.1)
0.1175
(25.1)
0.1276
(32.1)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.1611 0.1050 35.2
2 Félix Hernández 0.0801 0.1027 25.6
3 Edinson Volquez 0.1002 0.1472 25.0
4 Chad Billingsley 0.0925 0.1182 24.7
5 Roberto Hernandez 0.1248 0.1501 24.4
6 Ricky Nolasco 0.1087 0.1313 23.7
7 Vance Worley 0.1319 0.0850 23.7
8 Aaron Crow 0.1660 0.0752 23.1
9 Max Scherzer 0.0976 0.1212 23.0
10 Ryan Dempster 0.1041 0.1260 22.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.0961 0.1435 35.1
2 Charlie Morton 0.1504 0.1066 32.2
3 Josh Beckett 0.1258 0.0847 30.0
4 Justin Verlander 0.1068 0.0753 28.6
5 Ian Kennedy 0.1146 0.0811 28.4
6 Bronson Arroyo 0.1137 0.1392 23.5
7 Eric O'Flaherty 0.1096 0.0299 23.4
8 Kyle Lohse 0.1353 0.1032 23.4
9 Justin Masterson 0.1256 0.0980 23.3
10 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1120 0.0827 21.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.1611 0.1050 35.2
2 Félix Hernández 0.0801 0.1027 25.6
3 Edinson Volquez 0.1002 0.1472 25.0
4 Chad Billingsley 0.0925 0.1182 24.7
5 Roberto Hernandez 0.1248 0.1501 24.4
6 Ricky Nolasco 0.1087 0.1313 23.7
7 Vance Worley 0.1319 0.0850 23.7
8 Aaron Crow 0.1660 0.0752 23.1
9 Max Scherzer 0.0976 0.1212 23.0
10 Ryan Dempster 0.1041 0.1260 22.8

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brian Duensing 0.0961 0.1218 0.1435 35.1 18.2 16.8
2 Charlie Morton 0.1504 0.1317 0.1066 32.2 16.2 16.0
3 Charlie Furbush 0.1123 0.1566 0.1586 17.9 2.3 15.7
4 Zack Britton 0.1123 0.1341 0.1396 19.5 6.4 13.1
5 Justin Verlander 0.1068 0.0954 0.0753 28.6 15.6 13.0
6 Kyle McClellan 0.0976 0.1211 0.1170 12.9 0.1 12.8
7 J.A. Happ 0.0987 0.1183 0.1476 35.4 23.2 12.2
8 Jordan Zimmermann 0.1260 0.1108 0.0937 20.1 8.7 11.5
9 Derek Holland 0.1351 0.1243 0.1151 15.3 4.4 10.9
10 Felipe Paulino 0.1429 0.1276 0.1235 10.4 0.0 10.4

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Brian Matusz 0.2408
0.1116
(33.1)
0.1105
(32.5)
0.1116
(33.1)
Ryan Vogelsong 0.0718
0.1389
(46.1)
0.1029
(21.7)
0.1389
(46.1)
John Lackey 0.1534
0.1074
(38.4)
0.1073
(36.0)
0.1074
(38.4)
Doug Fister 0.0777
0.1187
(30.8)
0.1082
(24.7)
0.1187
(30.8)
Matt Harrison 0.0907
0.1242
(21.4)
0.1223
(22.7)
0.1242
(21.4)
Bronson Arroyo 0.1310
0.1110
(22.0)
0.1073
(22.2)
0.1110
(22.0)
Ryan Dempster 0.1226
0.0979
(26.8)
0.0982
(23.5)
0.0979
(26.8)
James Shields 0.0800
0.1146
(28.2)
0.1159
(32.8)
0.1146
(28.2)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1192
0.0811
(36.1)
0.0911
(25.0)
0.0811
(36.1)
Johnny Cueto 0.0634
0.1042
(22.1)
0.1060
(25.5)
0.1042
(22.1)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.1512 0.1006 30.3
2 Edinson Volquez 0.0938 0.1411 25.9
3 Max Scherzer 0.0907 0.1152 25.3
4 Félix Hernández 0.0749 0.0934 23.3
5 Ricky Nolasco 0.1010 0.1201 22.1
6 Jeff Karstens 0.1297 0.0913 21.8
7 Carlos Zambrano 0.0945 0.1230 21.7
8 Vance Worley 0.1232 0.0796 21.0
9 Aaron Crow 0.1555 0.0714 20.8
10 Chad Billingsley 0.0868 0.1062 20.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.0895 0.1322 32.0
2 J.A. Happ 0.0924 0.1332 30.1
3 Charlie Morton 0.1362 0.0949 30.0
4 Josh Beckett 0.1177 0.0808 26.5
5 Justin Verlander 0.0983 0.0691 26.0
6 Jered Weaver 0.0961 0.0680 23.9
7 Ian Kennedy 0.1071 0.0789 23.4
8 Kyle Lohse 0.1235 0.0916 23.0
9 Justin Masterson 0.1120 0.0848 22.6
10 Eric O'Flaherty 0.0965 0.0266 20.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 0.1512 0.1006 30.3
2 Edinson Volquez 0.0938 0.1411 25.9
3 Max Scherzer 0.0907 0.1152 25.3
4 Félix Hernández 0.0749 0.0934 23.3
5 Ricky Nolasco 0.1010 0.1201 22.1
6 Jeff Karstens 0.1297 0.0913 21.8
7 Carlos Zambrano 0.0945 0.1230 21.7
8 Vance Worley 0.1232 0.0796 21.0
9 Aaron Crow 0.1555 0.0714 20.8
10 Chad Billingsley 0.0868 0.1062 20.8

Most Unique Misses for Earned Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brian Duensing 0.0895 0.1134 0.1322 32.0 17.5 14.5
2 Charlie Furbush 0.1029 0.1461 0.1398 14.6 0.2 14.3
3 Charlie Morton 0.1362 0.1230 0.0949 30.0 17.2 12.8
4 Justin Verlander 0.0983 0.0888 0.0691 26.0 13.5 12.5
5 Zack Britton 0.1029 0.1246 0.1186 12.0 0.2 11.8
6 Tim Stauffer 0.0849 0.1073 0.0991 12.8 1.9 10.9
7 Jordan Zimmermann 0.1153 0.1029 0.0861 17.8 7.3 10.5
8 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1040 0.0939 0.0801 16.7 6.3 10.5
9 Derek Holland 0.1253 0.1169 0.1032 16.7 6.7 10.0
10 Aneury Rodriguez 0.1029 0.1331 0.1355 12.9 3.0 9.9

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Aaron Harang 0.5000
0.3333
(134.9)
0.1935
(182.5)
0.3333
(134.9)
Gio Gonzalez 0.5000
0.3235
(170.6)
0.2619
(160.2)
0.3235
(170.6)
Justin Verlander 0.7059
0.5625
(159.3)
0.3590
(285.2)
0.5625
(159.3)
Alexi Ogando 0.4194
0.0702
(256.5)
0.1034
(182.5)
0.0702
(256.5)
Derek Holland 0.5000
0.3704
(127.0)
0.1724
(231.8)
0.3704
(127.0)
Kyle Lohse 0.4667
0.3182
(131.4)
0.2000
(165.9)
0.3182
(131.4)
Ian Kennedy 0.6364
0.3478
(278.6)
0.1750
(367.9)
0.3478
(278.6)
Iván Nova 0.5714
0.2500
(241.1)
0.1111
(287.0)
0.2500
(241.1)
Matt Harrison 0.4516
0.1724
(231.8)
0.1562
(187.4)
0.1724
(231.8)
Clayton Kershaw 0.6364
0.4242
(212.6)
0.2381
(315.2)
0.4242
(212.6)
Bruce Chen 0.4800
0.2400
(170.7)
0.2105
(141.8)
0.2400
(170.7)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 0.1000 0.4333 266.5
2 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.5294 0.3125 161.0
3 Philip Humber 0.1290 0.3214 144.3
4 Brett Myers 0.3793 0.2059 139.8
5 Freddy Garcia 0.2667 0.4615 135.1
6 Phil Coke 0.3667 0.0625 134.2
7 Mat Latos 0.4783 0.2903 133.4
8 Mike Pelfrey 0.3750 0.2059 127.4
9 Aníbal Sánchez 0.4231 0.2500 126.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.1786 0.4706 219.0
2 Daniel Hudson 0.2258 0.4848 190.1
3 Jered Weaver 0.3000 0.5455 178.6
4 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1739 0.4483 171.6
5 Zack Greinke 0.2821 0.5714 169.3
6 Dillon Gee 0.1429 0.4333 167.9
7 Justin Masterson 0.1364 0.3529 148.9
8 Jair Jurrjens 0.2812 0.5652 145.1
9 Yovani Gallardo 0.3000 0.5152 140.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 0.1000 0.4333 266.5
2 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.5294 0.3125 161.0
3 Philip Humber 0.1290 0.3214 144.3
4 Brett Myers 0.3793 0.2059 139.8
5 Freddy Garcia 0.2667 0.4615 135.1
6 Phil Coke 0.3667 0.0625 134.2
7 Mat Latos 0.4783 0.2903 133.4
8 Mike Pelfrey 0.3750 0.2059 127.4
9 Aníbal Sánchez 0.4231 0.2500 126.2

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 C.J. Wilson 0.1786 0.4643 0.4706 219.0 25.0 194.1
2 Daniel Hudson 0.2258 0.4688 0.4848 190.1 34.2 155.9
3 Justin Masterson 0.1364 0.3548 0.3529 148.9 17.4 131.5
4 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1739 0.4167 0.4483 171.6 40.7 130.9
5 Justin Verlander 0.3590 0.5625 0.7059 285.2 159.3 125.9
6 Cliff Lee 0.3333 0.5714 0.5312 133.7 17.6 116.0
7 Brandon Morrow 0.1707 0.3929 0.3667 111.3 4.0 107.3
8 Derek Holland 0.1724 0.3704 0.5000 231.8 127.0 104.8
9 Clayton Kershaw 0.2381 0.4242 0.6364 315.2 212.6 102.6
10 Dan Haren 0.2821 0.4545 0.4571 116.7 22.5 94.2

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Justin Verlander 0.1471
0.2812
(135.5)
0.2308
(139.4)
0.2812
(135.5)
Jhoulys Chacín 0.4516
0.2424
(168.3)
0.2368
(127.8)
0.2424
(168.3)
Tim Lincecum 0.4242
0.1875
(208.0)
0.2105
(138.2)
0.1875
(208.0)
Félix Hernández 0.4242
0.2121
(199.0)
0.2250
(134.0)
0.2121
(199.0)
Hiroki Kuroda 0.5000
0.2857
(174.8)
0.2703
(142.1)
0.2857
(174.8)
J.A. Happ 0.5357
0.2414
(201.5)
0.1290
(241.8)
0.2414
(201.5)
Jeff Francis 0.5161
0.2632
(198.6)
0.2258
(184.8)
0.2632
(198.6)
Brian Duensing 0.4375
0.1667
(188.5)
0.0930
(202.1)
0.1667
(188.5)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jordan Zimmermann 0.1579 0.4231 171.8
2 Alexi Ogando 0.0175 0.2581 162.8
3 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2059 0.4062 160.1
4 Tim Stauffer 0.1875 0.3871 150.7
5 Mat Latos 0.2609 0.4516 147.9
6 Paul Maholm 0.3226 0.5385 144.4
7 Daniel McCutchen 0.4242 0.0411 141.5
8 Dillon Gee 0.3913 0.2000 139.1
9 Alfredo Simon 0.1154 0.3913 134.9
10 Vance Worley 0.3448 0.1200 127.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Cecil 0.1795 0.5500 165.1
2 Daniel Hudson 0.1290 0.3636 160.6
3 Guillermo Moscoso 0.0769 0.4348 156.6
4 Jeremy Hellickson 0.0870 0.3448 153.0
5 Ian Kennedy 0.2250 0.1212 147.6
6 Derek Lowe 0.2632 0.5000 146.6
7 David Price 0.1707 0.3824 139.0
8 R.A. Dickey 0.1795 0.3939 135.1
9 Brett Myers 0.2051 0.4118 134.3
10 Chris Capuano 0.1379 0.3636 132.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jordan Zimmermann 0.1579 0.4231 171.8
2 Alexi Ogando 0.0175 0.2581 162.8
3 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2059 0.4062 160.1
4 Tim Stauffer 0.1875 0.3871 150.7
5 Mat Latos 0.2609 0.4516 147.9
6 Paul Maholm 0.3226 0.5385 144.4
7 Daniel McCutchen 0.4242 0.0411 141.5
8 Dillon Gee 0.3913 0.2000 139.1
9 Alfredo Simon 0.1154 0.3913 134.9
10 Vance Worley 0.3448 0.1200 127.5

Most Unique Misses for Loss Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brandon McCarthy 0.1304 0.3571 0.3600 116.9 1.9 114.9
2 Guillermo Moscoso 0.0769 0.3462 0.4348 156.6 43.6 112.9
3 Dustin Moseley 0.1786 0.4211 0.5000 131.7 36.9 94.7
4 Daniel Hudson 0.1290 0.2812 0.3636 160.6 70.7 90.0
5 Jeremy Hellickson 0.0870 0.2500 0.3448 153.0 69.0 84.0
6 Clayton Kershaw 0.2143 0.1818 0.1515 112.1 32.8 79.3
7 Casey Coleman 0.1429 0.3929 0.4737 107.7 29.9 77.8
8 Carl Pavano 0.2500 0.3846 0.3939 80.0 3.5 76.5
9 Derek Lowe 0.2632 0.4062 0.5000 146.6 73.1 73.5
10 Pedro Beato 0.2456 0.0444 0.0167 81.8 9.5 72.4

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Jose Valverde 0.6533
0.0000
(188.5)
0.3778
(89.1)
0.0000
(188.5)
Heath Bell 0.6719
0.0000
(165.1)
0.4400
(64.6)
0.0000
(165.1)
Joel Hanrahan 0.5714
0.0000
(149.2)
0.0784
(140.7)
0.0000
(149.2)
Brandon League 0.5692
0.0000
(135.6)
0.0577
(133.0)
0.0000
(135.6)
Carlos Marmol 0.4533
0.0000
(139.4)
0.2632
(68.9)
0.0000
(139.4)
Sergio Santos 0.4762
0.0000
(116.8)
0.0294
(121.5)
0.0000
(116.8)
Jordan Walden 0.5161
0.0000
(123.8)
0.0556
(121.7)
0.0000
(123.8)
John Axford 0.6216
0.0000
(181.4)
0.2941
(106.1)
0.0000
(181.4)
Chris Perez 0.5625
0.0000
(132.8)
0.1875
(98.1)
0.0000
(132.8)
Craig Kimbrel 0.5823
0.0000
(169.9)
0.0500
(169.1)
0.0000
(169.9)
Drew Storen 0.5890
0.0000
(170.3)
0.0857
(158.7)
0.0000
(170.3)
Ryan Madson 0.5161
0.0000
(120.3)
0.0889
(110.1)
0.0000
(120.3)
J.J. Putz 0.7500
0.0000
(165.6)
0.1000
(153.5)
0.0000
(165.6)
Juan Carlos Oviedo 0.5294
0.0000
(134.7)
0.2941
(68.5)
0.0000
(134.7)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.6875 153.9
2 Brian Wilson 0.0000 0.6316 146.9
3 Francisco Cordero 0.0000 0.5441 141.7
4 Neftalí Feliz 0.0000 0.5000 119.2
5 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.4921 118.6
6 Joakim Soria 0.0000 0.4667 112.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.1429 0.0000 112.1
2 Alfredo Simon 0.2258 0.0000 102.5
3 Fernando Salas 0.0455 0.3529 96.7
4 Kyle Farnsworth 0.0227 0.3968 91.1
5 Javy Guerra 0.0275 0.4468 85.7
6 Mark Melancon 0.0455 0.2817 79.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.6875 153.9
2 Brian Wilson 0.0000 0.6316 146.9
3 Francisco Cordero 0.0000 0.5441 141.7
4 Neftalí Feliz 0.0000 0.5000 119.2
5 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.4921 118.6
6 Joakim Soria 0.0000 0.4667 112.6

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alfredo Simon 0.2258 0.0000 0.0000 102.5 13.4 89.1
2 C.J. Wilson 0.1429 0.0000 0.0000 112.1 24.6 87.4
3 Rafael Soriano 0.4167 0.0000 0.0476 57.2 3.4 53.8
4 Chad Qualls 0.1875 0.0000 0.0000 51.1 8.2 42.9
5 Matt Lindstrom 0.2444 0.0000 0.0317 43.5 1.1 42.4
6 Kerry Wood 0.2308 0.0000 0.0182 43.1 2.0 41.1
7 Brandon Morrow 0.0976 0.0000 0.0000 60.0 20.9 39.0
8 Ryan Franklin 0.3696 0.0000 0.0476 40.1 2.8 37.4
9 Bobby Jenks 0.4048 0.0000 0.0000 30.7 2.2 28.6
10 Brad Lidge 0.4048 0.0000 0.0400 29.6 1.1 28.5

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Sean Marshall 0.4359
0.0000
(119.1)
0.2000
(83.1)
0.0000
(119.1)
Jonny Venters 0.4118
0.0000
(129.9)
0.2391
(74.1)
0.0000
(129.9)
Daniel Bard 0.4857
0.0000
(126.1)
0.3000
(63.5)
0.0000
(126.1)
Vinnie Pestano 0.3433
0.0000
(73.8)
0.0769
(75.3)
0.0000
(73.8)
David Hernandez 0.3108
0.0000
(76.5)
0.0556
(84.4)
0.0000
(76.5)
Greg Holland 0.3913
0.0000
(80.0)
0.0588
(85.6)
0.0000
(80.0)
Eric O'Flaherty 0.4103
0.0000
(109.1)
0.1522
(88.2)
0.0000
(109.1)
Rafael Soriano 0.5476
0.0000
(82.0)
0.0625
(85.3)
0.0000
(82.0)
Kerry Wood 0.3818
0.0000
(74.8)
0.1026
(70.4)
0.0000
(74.8)
Tyler Clippard 0.5278
0.0000
(157.9)
0.2000
(119.3)
0.0000
(157.9)
David Robertson 0.4857
0.0000
(119.1)
0.1556
(99.3)
0.0000
(119.1)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Adams 0.0000 0.4267 104.9
2 Joaquín Benoit 0.0000 0.4394 94.4
3 Grant Balfour 0.0000 0.4194 89.9
4 Jose Veras 0.0000 0.3418 89.6
5 Scott Downs 0.0000 0.4333 84.0
6 Jesse Crain 0.0000 0.3582 83.2
7 Jim Johnson 0.0000 0.2609 78.0
8 Tony Sipp 0.0000 0.3478 75.3
9 Chad Qualls 0.0000 0.2857 72.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.1250 0.0000 82.5
2 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0217 0.2329 75.5
3 Brian Duensing 0.1395 0.0000 74.4
4 Kyle McClellan 0.2500 0.0930 74.1
5 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1304 0.0000 74.0
6 Alexi Ogando 0.1379 0.0000 71.4
7 Carlos Villanueva 0.1795 0.0000 65.7
8 Koji Uehara 0.1034 0.3385 65.6
9 Alfredo Aceves 0.1000 0.2000 63.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Adams 0.0000 0.4267 104.9
2 Joaquín Benoit 0.0000 0.4394 94.4
3 Grant Balfour 0.0000 0.4194 89.9
4 Jose Veras 0.0000 0.3418 89.6
5 Scott Downs 0.0000 0.4333 84.0
6 Jesse Crain 0.0000 0.3582 83.2
7 Jim Johnson 0.0000 0.2609 78.0
8 Tony Sipp 0.0000 0.3478 75.3
9 Chad Qualls 0.0000 0.2857 72.8

Most Unique Misses for Hold Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kyle McClellan 0.2500 0.0000 0.0930 74.1 27.4 46.7
2 Carlos Villanueva 0.1795 0.0000 0.0000 65.7 21.7 43.9
3 Brian Duensing 0.1395 0.0000 0.0000 74.4 34.0 40.4
4 Ryan Madson 0.2444 0.0000 0.0484 39.7 0.1 39.5
5 C.J. Wilson 0.1250 0.0000 0.0000 82.5 43.8 38.7
6 Alexi Ogando 0.1379 0.0000 0.0000 71.4 33.2 38.3
7 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1304 0.0000 0.0000 74.0 37.1 36.9
8 Sergio Santos 0.2059 0.0000 0.0317 36.2 4.2 32.0
9 Mark Melancon 0.1818 0.0000 0.0423 32.4 1.7 30.6
10 Will Ohman 0.2093 0.0000 0.0508 28.7 0.7 28.0

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Brian Matusz 10.6913
4.3775
(1609.7)
4.3021
(1580.2)
4.3775
(1609.7)
Ryan Vogelsong 2.7050
6.1338
(2385.6)
3.9993
(927.6)
6.1338
(2385.6)
John Lackey 6.4125
4.1379
(1880.5)
4.1334
(1738.5)
4.1379
(1880.5)
Matt Harrison 3.3932
4.9951
(1038.7)
4.8706
(1093.7)
4.9951
(1038.7)
Bronson Arroyo 5.0653
4.2090
(951.5)
4.0428
(926.2)
4.2090
(951.5)
Ryan Dempster 4.8040
3.7540
(1150.9)
3.7480
(983.8)
3.7540
(1150.9)
James Shields 2.8155
4.3811
(1276.4)
4.4852
(1568.8)
4.3811
(1276.4)
Ubaldo Jiménez 4.6832
3.0585
(1546.3)
3.4171
(1090.6)
3.0585
(1546.3)
Doug Fister 2.8290
4.6362
(1356.9)
4.1230
(1079.2)
4.6362
(1356.9)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 6.3984 3.7546 1613.9
2 Edinson Volquez 3.6565 5.7147 1131.9
3 Esmil Rogers 4.6901 7.0482 1056.3
4 Max Scherzer 3.4412 4.4308 1038.0
5 Ricky Nolasco 3.7759 4.6748 1029.4
6 Aaron Crow 6.7514 2.7581 994.0
7 Chad Billingsley 3.2996 4.2128 969.6
8 Bartolo Colon 5.6397 3.9980 961.4
9 Jeff Karstens 5.0625 3.3819 951.3
10 Vance Worley 4.9675 3.0076 942.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 3.3853 5.2330 1356.9
2 J.A. Happ 3.5200 5.3539 1322.5
3 Charlie Morton 5.4918 3.8272 1233.4
4 Josh Beckett 4.5562 2.8912 1230.5
5 Justin Verlander 3.6949 2.4024 1193.6
6 Kyle Lohse 4.8964 3.3929 1118.1
7 Johnny Cueto 4.0862 2.3077 1083.9
8 Ian Kennedy 4.1013 2.8784 1045.9
9 Justin Masterson 4.4164 3.2083 1041.8
10 Jered Weaver 3.5851 2.4059 1035.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Philip Humber 6.3984 3.7546 1613.9
2 Edinson Volquez 3.6565 5.7147 1131.9
3 Esmil Rogers 4.6901 7.0482 1056.3
4 Max Scherzer 3.4412 4.4308 1038.0
5 Ricky Nolasco 3.7759 4.6748 1029.4
6 Aaron Crow 6.7514 2.7581 994.0
7 Chad Billingsley 3.2996 4.2128 969.6
8 Bartolo Colon 5.6397 3.9980 961.4
9 Jeff Karstens 5.0625 3.3819 951.3
10 Vance Worley 4.9675 3.0076 942.0

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brian Duensing 3.3853 4.4568 5.2330 1356.9 734.2 622.6
2 Charlie Morton 5.4918 4.9451 3.8272 1233.4 662.4 571.0
3 Justin Verlander 3.6949 3.3488 2.4024 1193.6 668.6 525.0
4 Derek Holland 4.9355 4.5360 3.9545 775.7 274.0 501.8
5 Jordan Zimmermann 4.4637 3.9438 3.1798 809.8 336.0 473.7
6 Charlie Furbush 3.9993 6.0172 5.4844 575.1 102.8 472.2
7 Josh Beckett 4.5562 4.1582 2.8912 1230.5 775.1 455.3
8 Jeremy Hellickson 3.9728 3.5814 2.9524 742.8 288.4 454.4
9 Aneury Rodriguez 3.9993 5.4015 5.2734 492.6 47.4 445.2
10 Dillon Gee 3.6782 4.8782 4.4253 570.4 138.7 431.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ryan Vogelsong 6.1338 6.1338 2.7050 2385.6 2385.6 0.0
2 Jo-Jo Reyes 6.0194 6.0194 5.5664 126.0 126.0 0.0
3 Matt Harrison 4.9951 4.9951 3.3932 1038.7 1038.7 0.0
4 Alexi Ogando 3.0793 3.0793 3.5148 479.5 479.5 0.0
5 Tim Stauffer 4.1593 4.1593 3.7325 132.4 132.4 0.0
6 Jeff Francis 4.2430 4.2430 4.8197 669.0 669.0 0.0
7 Bruce Chen 4.7682 4.7682 3.7742 482.4 482.4 0.0
8 Kyle Lohse 4.6210 4.6210 3.3929 753.0 753.0 0.0
9 Luke Hochevar 4.6753 4.6753 4.6818 219.6 219.6 0.0
10 Dustin Moseley 5.2508 5.2508 3.3000 853.9 853.9 0.0

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Brian Matusz 2.1141
1.3781
(192.9)
1.3639
(186.7)
1.3781
(192.9)
John Lackey 1.6187
1.3246
(256.9)
1.3505
(208.2)
1.3246
(256.9)
Justin Verlander 0.9203
1.1953
(216.5)
1.2316
(290.0)
1.1953
(216.5)
Ricky Romero 1.1378
1.3963
(189.8)
1.3730
(204.7)
1.3963
(189.8)
Doug Fister 1.0632
1.3844
(236.0)
1.3024
(198.8)
1.3844
(236.0)
Philip Humber 1.1779
1.7188
(330.7)
1.4322
(163.8)
1.7188
(330.7)
James Shields 1.0428
1.2981
(198.7)
1.3582
(295.8)
1.2981
(198.7)
Clayton Kershaw 0.9771
1.2390
(191.8)
1.2534
(241.0)
1.2390
(191.8)
Jake Westbrook 1.5327
1.3398
(197.8)
1.3405
(165.2)
1.3398
(197.8)
Esmil Rogers 1.8916
1.4789
(187.6)
1.4870
(168.3)
1.4789
(187.6)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 1.9455 1.2523 482.5
2 Josh Collmenter 1.5812 1.0691 286.0
3 Ricky Nolasco 1.1737 1.3981 245.9
4 Guillermo Moscoso 1.5993 1.0938 238.8
5 Chad Billingsley 1.2542 1.4521 206.8
6 Josh Tomlin 1.4363 1.0766 204.0
7 Ubaldo Jiménez 1.2324 1.4018 181.6
8 Brad Penny 1.4002 1.5633 172.4
9 Cory Luebke 1.4240 1.0668 169.6
10 Ryan Dempster 1.3102 1.4481 167.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Beckett 1.3384 1.0259 230.5
2 Kyle Lohse 1.4767 1.1681 229.8
3 Tyler Chatwood 1.3279 1.6690 223.5
4 Cole Hamels 1.2284 0.9861 195.7
5 Mike Leake 1.4462 1.1750 179.6
6 Brian Duensing 1.2844 1.5155 172.8
7 Ian Kennedy 1.2848 1.0856 168.5
8 Kyle Drabek 1.3598 1.8051 166.9
9 Joel Pineiro 1.2605 1.5103 165.2
10 J.A. Happ 1.3156 1.5352 161.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Vogelsong 1.9455 1.2523 482.5
2 Josh Collmenter 1.5812 1.0691 286.0
3 Ricky Nolasco 1.1737 1.3981 245.9
4 Guillermo Moscoso 1.5993 1.0938 238.8
5 Chad Billingsley 1.2542 1.4521 206.8
6 Josh Tomlin 1.4363 1.0766 204.0
7 Ubaldo Jiménez 1.2324 1.4018 181.6
8 Brad Penny 1.4002 1.5633 172.4
9 Cory Luebke 1.4240 1.0668 169.6
10 Ryan Dempster 1.3102 1.4481 167.0

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tyler Chatwood 1.3279 1.9032 1.6690 223.5 115.6 107.9
2 Cliff Lee 1.1491 1.0780 1.0272 101.1 0.7 100.4
3 James Shields 1.3582 1.2981 1.0428 295.8 198.7 97.2
4 Mike Leake 1.4462 1.3571 1.1750 179.6 90.5 89.1
5 Cole Hamels 1.2284 1.1666 0.9861 195.7 109.6 86.2
6 Yovani Gallardo 1.3527 1.2962 1.2154 108.4 25.2 83.2
7 Danny Duffy 1.3279 1.5385 1.6139 141.3 60.2 81.0
8 Brian Duensing 1.2844 1.4339 1.5155 172.8 94.7 78.1
9 Josh Beckett 1.3384 1.2785 1.0259 230.5 154.2 76.3
10 R.A. Dickey 1.3353 1.2882 1.2268 84.5 8.6 75.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ryan Vogelsong 1.9455 1.9455 1.2523 482.5 482.5 0.0
2 Matt Harrison 1.5287 1.5287 1.2765 154.9 154.9 0.0
3 Tim Stauffer 1.3864 1.3864 1.2549 62.1 62.1 0.0
4 Jeff Francis 1.3599 1.3599 1.4372 103.4 103.4 0.0
5 Jaime García 1.3214 1.3214 1.3202 41.6 41.6 0.0
6 Kyle Lohse 1.4262 1.4262 1.1681 160.1 160.1 0.0
7 Bruce Chen 1.4380 1.4380 1.3032 54.4 54.4 0.0
8 Dustin Moseley 1.5558 1.5558 1.2750 115.5 115.5 0.0
9 Jhoulys Chacín 1.4110 1.4110 1.3144 37.3 37.3 0.0
10 Dillon Gee 1.3983 1.3983 1.3755 20.3 20.3 0.0