2016 Projection Evaluation

Summary

Batting

System	PA raw	wOBA	SO	BB	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System	BF raw	wOBA	ERA	SO	BB	HR	W	L	SV	HLD	BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Michael Brantley	43	525 (482.0)	566 (523.0)	436 (392.9)	614 (571.0)
Pablo Sandoval	7	484 (476.8)	515 (508.0)	421 (413.6)	547 (540.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kyle Schwarber	561	5	556.5
2	Mike Moustakas	575	113	462.2
3	Cory Spangenberg	489	53	436.2
4	Dalton Pompey	435	2	433.4
5	Héctor Olivera	444	21	422.7
6	AJ Pollock	467	46	421.4
7	Matt Tuiasosopo	390	3	387.0
8	David Peralta	568	183	385.3
9	Shin-Soo Choo	591	210	381.1
10	Julio Borbon	396	15	381.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	AJ Pollock	565	46	519.0
2	Nomar Mazara	100	568	468.0
3	Mike Moustakas	560	113	447.0
4	Andre Ethier	454	26	428.0
5	Corey Seager	267	687	420.0
6	Will Venable	433	19	414.0
7	Mark Canha	448	44	404.0
8	Brayan Peña	414	14	400.0
9	Marlon Byrd	520	129	391.0
10	Jonathan Villar	300	679	379.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Nomar Mazara	20	568	548.1
2	Kyle Schwarber	537	5	531.9
3	Cory Spangenberg	550	53	496.5
4	Héctor Olivera	512	21	491.4
5	Mike Moustakas	574	113	460.5
6	Eduardo Núñez	159	595	436.0
7	Hernán Pérez	1	430	429.0
8	David Peralta	587	183	403.6
9	Shin-Soo Choo	608	210	398.3
10	Cheslor Cuthbert	120	510	390.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Charlie Tilson	598	2	596.0
2	Dalton Pompey	598	2	596.0
3	Max Moroff	584	2	582.0
4	Kyle Schwarber	586	5	581.0
5	Matt Olson	607	28	579.0
6	Matt Davidson	580	2	578.0
7	Arismendy Alcántara	585	19	566.0
8	Matt Duffy	564	3	561.0
9	Raimel Tapia	600	41	559.0
10	Jesús Aguilar	560	6	554.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Corey Seager	267	608	687	420.0	79.0	341.0
2	Trevor Story	100	438	415	315.0	22.6	292.4
3	Hyun Soo Kim	100	340	346	246.0	5.9	240.1
4	Francisco Lindor	434	662	684	250.0	22.4	227.6
5	Stephen Piscotty	336	561	649	313.0	88.0	225.0
6	Will Venable	433	212	19	414.0	192.5	221.5
7	Tyler Naquin	100	317	365	265.0	48.4	216.6
8	Whit Merrifield	100	299	332	232.0	33.4	198.6
9	Michael McKenry	293	94	2	291.0	92.5	198.5
10	Aledmys Díaz	100	298	460	360.0	162.4	197.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Nomar Mazara	20	296	568	548.1	271.6	276.6
2	Robbie Grossman	1	265	389	388.0	124.0	264.0
3	Ryon Healy	1	254	283	282.0	28.5	253.5
4	James Loney	1	250	366	365.0	116.5	248.5
5	Hyun Soo Kim	103	340	346	242.8	5.9	236.9
6	Whit Merrifield	66	299	332	265.7	33.4	232.3
7	Ryan Schimpf	1	230	330	329.0	100.0	229.0
8	Hernán Pérez	1	230	430	429.0	200.5	228.5
9	Brandon Drury	197	421	499	302.2	77.6	224.6
10	David Dahl	1	224	237	236.0	12.5	223.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Matt Olson	607	304	28	579.0	276.0	303.0
2	Raimel Tapia	600	303	41	559.0	262.4	296.6
3	Max Moroff	584	295	2	582.0	293.4	288.6
4	Jason Coats	574	288	58	516.0	229.5	286.5
5	Charlie Tilson	598	316	2	596.0	313.9	282.1
6	JaCoby Jones	562	282	28	534.0	253.5	280.5
7	Tony Renda	560	280	67	493.0	213.5	279.5
8	Rio Ruiz	555	278	7	548.0	271.0	277.0
9	Matt Dominguez	559	283	12	547.0	270.9	276.1
10	Ben Gamel	564	289	57	507.0	231.6	275.4

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Daniel Murphy	0.4133	0.3285 (43.2)	0.3193 (51.8)	0.3349 (39.5)	0.3220 (47.2)
Derek Norris	0.2565	0.3091 (28.9)	0.3168 (29.9)	0.3054 (27.2)	0.3128 (30.4)
Jonathan Villar	0.3550	0.2901 (36.9)	0.2900 (40.8)	0.2890 (37.7)	0.2912 (36.4)
David Ortiz	0.4257	0.3672 (30.0)	0.3749 (28.7)	0.3658 (30.9)	0.3687 (29.4)
Jose Altuve	0.3936	0.3347 (34.7)	0.3337 (39.4)	0.3350 (34.5)	0.3343 (35.3)
Andrew McCutchen	0.3325	0.3813 (40.0)	0.3816 (36.5)	0.3823 (40.7)	0.3803 (39.0)
José Ramírez	0.3547	0.2970 (29.1)	0.2856 (39.6)	0.2962 (29.6)	0.2977 (28.9)
Jason Heyward	0.2813	0.3427 (42.6)	0.3314 (32.6)	0.3441 (43.4)	0.3413 (41.5)
Wilson Ramos	0.3627	0.2935 (30.7)	0.2920 (34.4)	0.2977 (28.5)	0.2894 (33.1)
Charlie Blackmon	0.3939	0.3299 (34.2)	0.3315 (36.8)	0.3283 (35.3)	0.3315 (33.5)
Jean Segura	0.3694	0.2884 (48.9)	0.2854 (54.9)	0.2912 (47.0)	0.2856 (51.2)
DJ LeMahieu	0.3875	0.3126 (40.9)	0.3066 (48.2)	0.3143 (39.8)	0.3109 (42.2)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryce Harper	0.4215	0.3543	48.7
2	Aledmys Díaz	0.2908	0.3722	32.6
3	Prince Fielder	0.3520	0.2775	31.5
4	Corey Seager	0.3186	0.3745	31.1
5	Brian Dozier	0.3182	0.3716	29.6
6	Ryan Zimmerman	0.3277	0.2775	28.3
7	Tyler Naquin	0.2880	0.3756	28.1
8	Giancarlo Stanton	0.3955	0.3469	27.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.2921	0.3568	38.0
2	Brian Dozier	0.3210	0.3716	31.5
3	Kris Bryant	0.3514	0.3984	29.4
4	Freddie Freeman	0.3619	0.4090	29.3
5	Elvis Andrus	0.2877	0.3432	28.7
6	Nolan Arenado	0.3448	0.3904	28.3
7	Prince Fielder	0.3478	0.2775	27.8
8	Trea Turner	0.3058	0.3951	27.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryce Harper	0.4121	0.3543	42.8
2	Prince Fielder	0.3642	0.2775	36.0
3	Corey Seager	0.3138	0.3745	34.4
4	Brian Dozier	0.3127	0.3716	33.4
5	Aledmys Díaz	0.2925	0.3722	31.8
6	Ryan Zimmerman	0.3303	0.2775	29.6
7	Giancarlo Stanton	0.3966	0.3469	28.3
8	Nelson Cruz	0.3355	0.3855	26.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryce Harper	0.4310	0.3543	54.4
2	Aledmys Díaz	0.2891	0.3722	33.6
3	Chris Davis	0.3815	0.3416	33.3
4	Tyler Naquin	0.2757	0.3756	32.8
5	Trea Turner	0.2952	0.3951	29.1
6	Corey Seager	0.3234	0.3745	28.1
7	Mark Teixeira	0.3409	0.2880	27.6
8	Giancarlo Stanton	0.3945	0.3469	27.1

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.2921	0.3166	0.3568	38.0	18.8	19.2
2	Manny Machado	0.3389	0.3591	0.3703	18.4	0.4	18.0
3	Mark Trumbo	0.3144	0.3334	0.3586	26.2	9.8	16.4
4	Troy Tulowitzki	0.3655	0.3322	0.3272	23.5	8.5	15.1
5	Mark Reynolds	0.3058	0.3442	0.3493	17.0	2.4	14.6
6	Mookie Betts	0.3393	0.3535	0.3798	25.9	11.5	14.4
7	Xander Bogaerts	0.3143	0.3282	0.3476	20.4	6.4	14.0
8	Nolan Arenado	0.3448	0.3589	0.3904	28.3	14.6	13.7
9	Mike Trout	0.3963	0.4140	0.4230	14.8	1.1	13.7
10	Kris Bryant	0.3514	0.3650	0.3984	29.4	16.0	13.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Justin Turner	0.3277	0.3394	0.3535	9.5	2.2	7.3
2	J.D. Martinez	0.3453	0.3572	0.3849	15.0	8.8	6.2
3	Travis Shaw	0.3248	0.3138	0.3126	12.0	6.2	5.8
4	Alex Bregman	0.2405	0.2668	0.3355	18.3	12.6	5.7
5	Yoenis Cespedes	0.3223	0.3321	0.3738	22.2	16.9	5.3
6	Nick Buss	0.3235	0.2679	0.2508	7.5	2.5	5.0
7	Odúbel Herrera	0.2940	0.3015	0.3405	23.6	18.7	4.9
8	Nelson Cruz	0.3355	0.3427	0.3855	26.4	21.5	4.9
9	Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.2991	0.3075	0.3473	21.4	16.6	4.8
10	Pedro Álvarez	0.3528	0.3406	0.3500	5.0	0.4	4.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Adalberto Mondesi	0.3235	0.2619	0.2165	17.5	8.3	9.1
2	Tyler Goeddel	0.3235	0.2866	0.2432	21.2	12.6	8.5
3	Chris Carter	0.3553	0.3425	0.3466	12.1	4.1	8.0
4	Chris Davis	0.3815	0.3695	0.3416	33.3	25.6	7.7
5	Colby Rasmus	0.3316	0.3155	0.2809	25.3	18.8	6.5
6	Bryce Harper	0.4310	0.4215	0.3543	54.4	48.7	5.6
7	Matt Kemp	0.3177	0.3252	0.3367	6.0	0.6	5.3
8	Xander Bogaerts	0.3216	0.3282	0.3476	11.4	6.4	5.1
9	Tyler Naquin	0.2757	0.2880	0.3756	32.8	28.1	4.6
10	Khris Davis	0.3118	0.3187	0.3491	16.6	12.1	4.5

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Alex Gordon	0.2925	0.2116 (35.9)	0.2038 (40.6)	0.2092 (35.5)	0.2139 (36.4)
Russell Martin	0.2766	0.2113 (29.7)	0.1984 (37.3)	0.2071 (30.2)	0.2156 (29.1)
Derek Norris	0.3035	0.2257 (31.1)	0.2174 (35.6)	0.2185 (32.9)	0.2329 (29.3)
Salvador Perez	0.2179	0.1393 (37.5)	0.1481 (33.5)	0.1399 (35.4)	0.1387 (39.6)
Kris Bryant	0.2203	0.2928 (57.6)	0.2773 (45.7)	0.2831 (53.1)	0.3024 (62.0)
Carlos Santana	0.1439	0.1852 (35.2)	0.1843 (33.6)	0.1857 (37.8)	0.1847 (32.6)
Adam Rosales	0.3548	0.2233 (30.2)	0.2166 (32.2)	0.2214 (29.8)	0.2252 (30.5)
Francisco Lindor	0.1287	0.1698 (34.9)	0.1728 (36.0)	0.1584 (29.4)	0.1811 (40.4)
DJ LeMahieu	0.1260	0.1667 (32.1)	0.1764 (37.4)	0.1681 (35.1)	0.1653 (29.1)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	George Springer	0.2870	0.2392	42.9
2	Brett Gardner	0.2104	0.1672	33.7
3	Byron Buxton	0.2490	0.3565	32.3
4	Kole Calhoun	0.2134	0.1756	32.1
5	Rougned Odor	0.1547	0.2136	31.0
6	Ian Desmond	0.2718	0.2363	30.7
7	Ian Kinsler	0.1154	0.1694	29.9
8	Travis Jankowski	0.1741	0.2611	29.5
9	Marcell Ozuna	0.2277	0.1891	29.5
10	David Freese	0.2209	0.2886	28.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Trevor Story	0.2059	0.3133	41.0
2	Aledmys Díaz	0.2059	0.1304	38.6
3	Keon Broxton	0.2049	0.3607	35.9
4	Byron Buxton	0.2437	0.3565	34.5
5	Ryan Schimpf	0.2059	0.3182	34.3
6	Tyler Naquin	0.2059	0.3068	33.8
7	Carlos Gómez	0.2200	0.3002	32.5
8	José Ramírez	0.1442	0.1003	32.4
9	Mookie Betts	0.1451	0.1096	32.1
10	Kole Calhoun	0.2144	0.1756	31.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Byron Buxton	0.2332	0.3565	36.4
2	Brett Gardner	0.2106	0.1672	35.9
3	Kole Calhoun	0.2149	0.1756	35.3
4	Ian Desmond	0.2746	0.2363	34.9
5	Travis Jankowski	0.1660	0.2611	31.4
6	George Springer	0.2679	0.2392	31.1
7	Rougned Odor	0.1512	0.2136	31.1
8	José Abreu	0.2106	0.1799	30.5
9	James McCann	0.1994	0.2922	29.7
10	David Freese	0.2179	0.2886	28.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	George Springer	0.3062	0.2392	54.7
2	Nomar Mazara	0.2583	0.1972	38.5
3	Aledmys Díaz	0.1984	0.1304	34.3
4	Marcell Ozuna	0.2369	0.1891	33.1
5	Ian Kinsler	0.1141	0.1694	33.1
6	Brett Gardner	0.2102	0.1672	31.5
7	Justin Smoak	0.2306	0.3284	31.1
8	Rougned Odor	0.1582	0.2136	30.9
9	Chase Utley	0.1444	0.2035	29.7
10	Victor Martinez	0.0926	0.1475	29.5

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Keon Broxton	0.2049	0.3376	0.3607	35.9	3.2	32.7
2	Trevor Story	0.2059	0.2820	0.3133	41.0	8.9	32.2
3	José Ramírez	0.1442	0.1026	0.1003	32.4	7.5	24.8
4	Ryan Schimpf	0.2059	0.2744	0.3182	34.3	11.2	23.1
5	Hyun Soo Kim	0.2059	0.1382	0.1474	23.2	0.2	22.9
6	Tim Anderson	0.2059	0.2545	0.2715	24.6	3.0	21.6
7	ByungHo Park	0.2059	0.2861	0.3279	27.7	7.8	19.9
8	Tyler Naquin	0.2059	0.2574	0.3068	33.8	14.5	19.3
9	Xander Bogaerts	0.1921	0.1675	0.1711	21.2	4.6	16.6
10	José Peraza	0.1900	0.1140	0.1289	17.8	1.3	16.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tyler Naquin	0.2262	0.2574	0.3068	24.6	14.5	10.2
2	Ryan Schimpf	0.2460	0.2744	0.3182	19.5	11.2	8.3
3	José Abreu	0.2106	0.2027	0.1799	30.5	22.7	7.8
4	Chris Carter	0.3221	0.3135	0.3199	9.9	2.3	7.7
5	Yasmany Tomás	0.2479	0.2378	0.2416	11.0	3.4	7.6
6	Martín Prado	0.1260	0.1184	0.1049	22.6	15.4	7.2
7	Travis Shaw	0.2111	0.2269	0.2509	14.1	7.5	6.6
8	Eugenio Suárez	0.2122	0.2255	0.2472	13.7	7.4	6.3
9	Tim Anderson	0.2372	0.2545	0.2715	9.1	3.0	6.0
10	Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.1890	0.1818	0.1813	11.9	5.9	6.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	George Springer	0.3062	0.2870	0.2392	54.7	42.9	11.8
2	Nomar Mazara	0.2583	0.2368	0.1972	38.5	28.1	10.3
3	Corey Dickerson	0.2635	0.2418	0.2445	14.0	3.9	10.1
4	Wil Myers	0.2506	0.2338	0.2367	13.8	4.8	9.1
5	Christian Yelich	0.2181	0.2032	0.2094	10.1	2.4	7.7
6	Omar Narváez	0.2059	0.1380	0.1197	10.9	3.3	7.6
7	Odúbel Herrera	0.2346	0.2198	0.2043	24.2	16.7	7.5
8	Adalberto Mondesi	0.2059	0.2512	0.3221	16.3	9.1	7.2
9	Aledmys Díaz	0.1984	0.1799	0.1304	34.3	27.3	7.0
10	Jung Ho Kang	0.2736	0.2515	0.2135	24.7	17.7	7.0

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Didi Gregorius	0.0318	0.0657 (24.5)	0.0701 (25.2)	0.0654 (24.0)	0.0661 (24.8)
Francisco Cervelli	0.1425	0.0848 (19.9)	0.0851 (21.0)	0.0836 (20.5)	0.0859 (19.4)
Adam Lind	0.0605	0.0997 (19.9)	0.0996 (18.5)	0.0987 (19.3)	0.1006 (20.4)
Josh Donaldson	0.1557	0.0999 (34.1)	0.1031 (34.1)	0.1013 (33.5)	0.0985 (34.9)
Jonathan Villar	0.1163	0.0772 (21.8)	0.0767 (24.2)	0.0778 (21.7)	0.0766 (22.0)
Andrew McCutchen	0.1022	0.1287 (22.6)	0.1256 (18.5)	0.1283 (22.1)	0.1290 (23.0)
Nolan Arenado	0.0977	0.0542 (25.4)	0.0540 (27.7)	0.0577 (23.2)	0.0507 (27.6)
Odúbel Herrera	0.0960	0.0554 (22.0)	0.0604 (20.8)	0.0579 (20.7)	0.0529 (23.5)
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	0.1429	0.0787 (22.4)	0.0880 (19.9)	0.0788 (22.6)	0.0785 (22.3)
Matt Joyce	0.2014	0.1105 (24.6)	0.1108 (25.4)	0.1087 (25.2)	0.1122 (24.0)
Brandon Belt	0.1588	0.0959 (36.5)	0.0911 (41.7)	0.0949 (37.5)	0.0969 (35.7)
Ben Zobrist	0.1521	0.1133 (20.1)	0.1071 (25.9)	0.1123 (21.0)	0.1143 (19.3)
DJ LeMahieu	0.1039	0.0674 (18.7)	0.0688 (19.8)	0.0690 (18.0)	0.0658 (19.6)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joey Votto	0.1889	0.1595	24.7
2	Justin Upton	0.1067	0.0799	21.2
3	Evan Longoria	0.0837	0.0613	20.2
4	Rougned Odor	0.0520	0.0301	18.3
5	Matt Kemp	0.0735	0.0536	18.2
6	Manny Machado	0.0879	0.0690	18.1
7	Jose Altuve	0.0523	0.0837	17.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Trout	0.1262	0.1703	27.3
2	Tim Anderson	0.0832	0.0302	24.6
3	Ketel Marte	0.0866	0.0386	24.2
4	Jose Altuve	0.0527	0.0837	19.3
5	Bryce Harper	0.1389	0.1722	18.4
6	Javier Báez	0.0701	0.0333	18.3
7	Yoenis Cespedes	0.0568	0.0939	18.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Evan Longoria	0.0847	0.0613	20.5
2	Joey Votto	0.1827	0.1595	20.1
3	Justin Upton	0.1051	0.0799	19.9
4	Rougned Odor	0.0529	0.0301	18.6
5	Matt Kemp	0.0734	0.0536	17.7
6	Mike Trout	0.1382	0.1703	17.4
7	Mookie Betts	0.0839	0.0671	17.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joey Votto	0.1951	0.1595	29.1
2	Manny Machado	0.0948	0.0690	23.1
3	Justin Upton	0.1084	0.0799	22.5
4	Evan Longoria	0.0828	0.0613	19.7
5	Jose Altuve	0.0491	0.0837	19.6
6	Yoenis Cespedes	0.0525	0.0939	18.5
7	Matt Kemp	0.0737	0.0536	18.4

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tim Anderson	0.0832	0.0295	0.0302	24.6	2.8	21.8
2	Bryce Harper	0.1389	0.1615	0.1722	18.4	2.3	16.1
3	Ryon Healy	0.0832	0.0348	0.0424	12.7	0.1	12.5
4	Ketel Marte	0.0866	0.0582	0.0386	24.2	12.4	11.8
5	Mike Trout	0.1262	0.1396	0.1703	27.3	16.1	11.2
6	José Peraza	0.0769	0.0324	0.0273	13.7	3.1	10.6
7	Whit Merrifield	0.0832	0.0508	0.0572	10.0	0.2	9.7
8	Adonis García	0.0539	0.0359	0.0426	8.6	0.2	8.4
9	Hanley Ramirez	0.0781	0.0915	0.0968	9.1	1.1	8.0
10	Maikel Franco	0.0729	0.0556	0.0635	8.4	0.5	7.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hanley Ramirez	0.0789	0.0915	0.0968	7.0	1.1	5.9
2	Bryce Harper	0.1538	0.1615	0.1722	7.4	2.3	5.2
3	Jonathan Schoop	0.0420	0.0373	0.0325	10.4	7.7	2.7
4	José Bautista	0.1460	0.1494	0.1683	8.1	6.1	2.0
5	George Springer	0.1051	0.1072	0.1183	4.9	3.0	2.0
6	Adonis García	0.0395	0.0359	0.0426	1.9	0.2	1.7
7	Alcides Escobar	0.0398	0.0368	0.0396	4.6	2.9	1.7
8	Colby Rasmus	0.0849	0.0884	0.1031	4.9	3.2	1.7
9	Starlin Castro	0.0503	0.0470	0.0393	10.7	9.0	1.7
10	Ichiro Suzuki	0.0534	0.0575	0.0822	8.1	6.4	1.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hanley Ramirez	0.1042	0.0915	0.0968	9.1	1.1	8.0
2	Adalberto Mondesi	0.0832	0.0378	0.0403	7.5	0.7	6.8
3	T.J. Rivera	0.0832	0.0390	0.0265	7.2	2.2	5.0
4	Manny Machado	0.0948	0.0879	0.0690	23.1	18.1	5.0
5	Joey Votto	0.1951	0.1889	0.1595	29.1	24.7	4.4
6	Kris Bryant	0.1216	0.1159	0.1073	15.1	11.0	4.1
7	Xander Bogaerts	0.0553	0.0606	0.0807	13.0	9.3	3.6
8	Tyler Goeddel	0.0832	0.0619	0.0726	4.2	0.9	3.3
9	Mike Napoli	0.1321	0.1285	0.1209	11.9	9.5	2.5
10	Chris Davis	0.1044	0.1082	0.1323	13.7	11.3	2.4

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Rougned Odor	0.0063	0.0187 (8.1)	0.0201 (8.9)	0.0160 (6.4)	0.0214 (9.8)
Neil Walker	0.0022	0.0160 (6.5)	0.0162 (6.5)	0.0160 (6.5)	0.0160 (6.5)
Daniel Murphy	0.0137	0.0042 (5.3)	0.0038 (5.6)	0.0050 (4.8)	0.0033 (5.9)
Stephen Piscotty	0.0185	0.0097 (5.4)	0.0060 (8.0)	0.0090 (5.9)	0.0104 (5.0)
Andrew McCutchen	0.0074	0.0147 (5.2)	0.0149 (5.2)	0.0140 (4.8)	0.0154 (5.6)
Derek Dietrich	0.0583	0.0362 (8.9)	0.0327 (10.4)	0.0310 (11.0)	0.0413 (6.8)
Ryan Schimpf	0.0273	0.0104 (5.4)	0.0091 (5.9)	0.0100 (5.5)	0.0109 (5.3)
Dexter Fowler	0.0200	0.0075 (6.7)	0.0084 (6.2)	0.0080 (6.3)	0.0070 (7.0)
Brandon Guyer	0.0899	0.0382 (17.7)	0.0404 (17.0)	0.0310 (20.1)	0.0455 (15.2)
Javier Báez	0.0244	0.0122 (5.3)	0.0074 (7.6)	0.0110 (5.8)	0.0133 (4.9)
Tyler Flowers	0.0338	0.0159 (5.7)	0.0142 (6.3)	0.0140 (6.3)	0.0177 (5.1)
Brett Wallace	0.0352	0.0134 (5.5)	0.0119 (5.9)	0.0120 (5.8)	0.0149 (5.1)
Jean Segura	0.0173	0.0094 (5.2)	0.0090 (5.6)	0.0090 (5.4)	0.0099 (4.9)
Kris Bryant	0.0258	0.0141 (7.9)	0.0129 (8.8)	0.0130 (8.6)	0.0152 (7.1)
Danny Espinosa	0.0333	0.0183 (8.7)	0.0181 (9.0)	0.0160 (10.1)	0.0207 (7.4)
Addison Russell	0.0201	0.0070 (7.6)	0.0062 (8.1)	0.0080 (6.9)	0.0060 (8.2)
Ian Kinsler	0.0191	0.0079 (7.4)	0.0067 (8.3)	0.0080 (7.3)	0.0078 (7.5)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jung Ho Kang	0.0221	0.0378	5.7
2	Jon Jay	0.0294	0.0160	5.2
3	Adam Jones	0.0143	0.0074	4.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jon Jay	0.0300	0.0160	5.3
2	Todd Frazier	0.0133	0.0060	5.0
3	Adam Jones	0.0144	0.0074	4.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jung Ho Kang	0.0180	0.0378	7.2
2	Todd Frazier	0.0130	0.0060	5.0
3	Andrés Blanco	0.0100	0.0335	4.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jon Jay	0.0339	0.0160	6.8
2	Adam Jones	0.0156	0.0074	5.7
3	Devon Travis	0.0116	0.0000	5.2

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Scott Schebler	0.0089	0.0195	0.0213	3.4	0.4	3.0
2	Cheslor Cuthbert	0.0086	0.0035	0.0000	4.5	2.0	2.6
3	Stephen Piscotty	0.0060	0.0097	0.0185	8.0	5.4	2.5
4	Javier Báez	0.0074	0.0122	0.0244	7.6	5.3	2.2
5	Adam Eaton	0.0150	0.0175	0.0198	3.3	1.4	1.9
6	Domingo Santana	0.0164	0.0103	0.0071	2.7	1.0	1.7
7	Trea Turner	0.0087	0.0035	0.0031	1.9	0.3	1.6
8	Joc Pederson	0.0137	0.0103	0.0084	2.6	1.1	1.6
9	Ryon Healy	0.0091	0.0035	0.0035	1.7	0.1	1.6
10	Adonis García	0.0034	0.0060	0.0107	4.0	2.4	1.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brandon Guyer	0.0310	0.0382	0.0899	20.1	17.7	2.5
2	Adam Eaton	0.0140	0.0175	0.0198	3.8	1.4	2.4
3	Derek Dietrich	0.0310	0.0362	0.0583	11.0	8.9	2.1
4	Chase Utley	0.0150	0.0183	0.0195	2.3	0.4	1.8
5	Jung Ho Kang	0.0180	0.0221	0.0378	7.2	5.7	1.5
6	Danny Espinosa	0.0160	0.0183	0.0333	10.1	8.7	1.4
7	José Abreu	0.0160	0.0178	0.0216	3.6	2.3	1.2
8	Starling Marte	0.0260	0.0283	0.0302	2.0	0.8	1.2
9	César Hernández	0.0050	0.0035	0.0032	1.4	0.4	1.0
10	Carlos González	0.0050	0.0036	0.0016	2.4	1.5	0.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Anthony Rizzo	0.0282	0.0251	0.0237	3.3	1.2	2.1
2	Rougned Odor	0.0214	0.0187	0.0063	9.8	8.1	1.7
3	Jon Jay	0.0339	0.0294	0.0160	6.8	5.2	1.6
4	Russell Martin	0.0222	0.0191	0.0187	2.1	0.4	1.6
5	Justin Turner	0.0203	0.0176	0.0161	2.8	1.2	1.6
6	Francisco Cervelli	0.0215	0.0177	0.0153	2.6	1.1	1.4
7	Jett Bandy	0.0319	0.0259	0.0173	3.4	2.1	1.4
8	Wilson Ramos	0.0000	0.0020	0.0038	1.8	0.7	1.1
9	Odúbel Herrera	0.0123	0.0107	0.0091	2.3	1.3	1.1
10	Logan Forsythe	0.0178	0.0159	0.0141	2.3	1.3	1.1

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Brian Dozier	0.0868	0.0478 (21.3)	0.0485 (21.6)	0.0429 (24.5)	0.0526 (18.3)
Trevor Story	0.1102	0.0478 (22.5)	0.0459 (23.8)	0.0423 (24.7)	0.0537 (20.3)
Robinson Canó	0.0696	0.0351 (18.9)	0.0371 (18.3)	0.0362 (17.9)	0.0340 (20.0)
Carlos González	0.0548	0.0787 (20.2)	0.0769 (18.4)	0.0748 (18.0)	0.0826 (22.4)
Brad Miller	0.0746	0.0344 (19.3)	0.0342 (20.1)	0.0342 (19.2)	0.0345 (19.5)
Todd Frazier	0.0920	0.0575 (17.5)	0.0587 (17.5)	0.0580 (17.0)	0.0571 (18.1)
Jedd Gyorko	0.0984	0.0490 (18.1)	0.0453 (20.2)	0.0496 (17.7)	0.0484 (18.5)
Khris Davis	0.1066	0.0591 (24.0)	0.0690 (18.7)	0.0620 (22.0)	0.0561 (26.1)
José Abreu	0.0492	0.0678 (18.5)	0.0644 (15.4)	0.0687 (19.4)	0.0668 (17.5)
Jake Lamb	0.0777	0.0345 (20.8)	0.0319 (23.1)	0.0366 (19.4)	0.0324 (22.4)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryce Harper	0.0894	0.0602	23.4
2	Mark Reynolds	0.0841	0.0495	18.9
3	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0727	0.0548	18.3
4	Jason Heyward	0.0382	0.0159	18.0
5	Mike Trout	0.0871	0.0695	17.5
6	Sean Rodríguez	0.0312	0.0891	17.0
7	George Springer	0.0766	0.0621	16.8
8	Mark Trumbo	0.0735	0.1061	16.3
9	Gary Sánchez	0.0601	0.1370	15.8
10	Yasmani Grandal	0.0558	0.0982	15.7

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mark Trumbo	0.0580	0.1061	27.4
2	Yasmany Tomás	0.0305	0.0785	23.1
3	Gary Sánchez	0.0340	0.1370	22.0
4	Ryan Schimpf	0.0459	0.1149	20.5
5	Freddie Freeman	0.0458	0.0804	19.1
6	Yasmani Grandal	0.0510	0.0982	18.4
7	Ryan Howard	0.0588	0.1136	17.3
8	Mike Napoli	0.0592	0.0924	16.9
9	Ian Kinsler	0.0246	0.0553	16.1
10	Rougned Odor	0.0375	0.0696	15.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryce Harper	0.0848	0.0602	20.7
2	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0734	0.0548	19.0
3	Mark Trumbo	0.0697	0.1061	18.7
4	Yasmany Tomás	0.0376	0.0785	18.3
5	Jason Heyward	0.0380	0.0159	18.1
6	Mike Trout	0.0875	0.0695	17.9
7	Yasmani Grandal	0.0519	0.0982	17.3
8	Gary Sánchez	0.0548	0.1370	16.9
9	Ryan Schimpf	0.0564	0.1149	16.5
10	Sean Rodríguez	0.0336	0.0891	16.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryce Harper	0.0942	0.0602	26.1
2	Mark Reynolds	0.0947	0.0495	23.3
3	George Springer	0.0804	0.0621	19.3
4	Sean Rodríguez	0.0287	0.0891	18.0
5	Jason Heyward	0.0385	0.0159	17.9
6	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0720	0.0548	17.5
7	Carlos Correa	0.0635	0.0454	17.0
8	Mike Trout	0.0867	0.0695	16.8
9	Ian Kinsler	0.0229	0.0553	16.8
10	Jonathan Lucroy	0.0241	0.0609	15.9

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Kris Bryant	0.0583	0.0810	0.0863	14.7	2.0	12.7
2	Adam Duvall	0.0545	0.0738	0.0831	13.1	0.7	12.4
3	Mark Trumbo	0.0580	0.0735	0.1061	27.4	16.3	11.1
4	Adonis García	0.0493	0.0285	0.0318	13.8	2.7	11.1
5	Whit Merrifield	0.0459	0.0125	0.0083	14.8	4.1	10.7
6	Tim Anderson	0.0459	0.0224	0.0300	9.9	0.2	9.6
7	Wil Myers	0.0400	0.0529	0.0631	10.9	1.3	9.5
8	Travis Jankowski	0.0333	0.0081	0.0084	12.2	3.0	9.2
9	Chris Carter	0.0903	0.1034	0.1161	12.2	3.0	9.2
10	Paulo Orlando	0.0377	0.0184	0.0139	14.9	6.1	8.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	David Ortiz	0.0644	0.0725	0.0830	6.4	1.5	4.9
2	Brian Dozier	0.0429	0.0478	0.0868	24.5	21.3	3.2
3	Mike Napoli	0.0619	0.0671	0.0924	14.2	11.1	3.2
4	Manny Machado	0.0530	0.0579	0.0705	6.3	3.1	3.2
5	Chris Carter	0.0983	0.1034	0.1161	6.1	3.0	3.1
6	Pedro Álvarez	0.0958	0.0889	0.0909	5.0	2.3	2.7
7	Yasmany Tomás	0.0376	0.0427	0.0785	18.3	15.6	2.7
8	Nomar Mazara	0.0343	0.0419	0.0487	3.4	0.8	2.6
9	Nick Buss	0.0459	0.0171	0.0167	3.4	0.8	2.6
10	Jacoby Ellsbury	0.0293	0.0255	0.0185	12.0	9.5	2.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Carlos Correa	0.0635	0.0549	0.0454	17.0	11.6	5.3
2	J.D. Martinez	0.0873	0.0776	0.0653	15.3	10.6	4.7
3	Chris Davis	0.1224	0.1150	0.1086	14.3	9.7	4.6
4	Hanley Ramirez	0.0381	0.0449	0.0693	14.6	10.1	4.5
5	Mark Reynolds	0.0947	0.0841	0.0495	23.3	18.9	4.5
6	Nomar Mazara	0.0500	0.0419	0.0487	5.1	0.8	4.3
7	Omar Narváez	0.0459	0.0089	0.0112	4.9	0.7	4.3
8	Matt Kemp	0.0432	0.0486	0.0731	14.9	11.0	4.0
9	Tyler Goeddel	0.0459	0.0298	0.0245	6.8	3.1	3.7
10	Adalberto Mondesi	0.0459	0.0220	0.0215	4.8	1.3	3.5

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Sandy León	0.3838	0.2702 (31.5)	0.2660 (33.9)	0.2740 (30.2)	0.2663 (33.0)
Bryce Harper	0.2640	0.3387 (48.2)	0.3362 (44.0)	0.3321 (44.8)	0.3456 (51.7)
Ben Revere	0.2327	0.3252 (35.5)	0.3272 (34.7)	0.3250 (35.8)	0.3254 (35.1)
Paulo Orlando	0.3757	0.2932 (38.9)	0.2913 (41.8)	0.2991 (35.5)	0.2874 (42.3)
Jonathan Villar	0.3679	0.3081 (39.1)	0.3010 (46.8)	0.3025 (42.2)	0.3139 (36.0)
Tyler Naquin	0.4070	0.3168 (32.1)	0.2999 (39.8)	0.3237 (29.2)	0.3092 (35.4)
José Ramírez	0.3320	0.2760 (33.3)	0.2635 (43.6)	0.2775 (31.7)	0.2745 (35.0)
Todd Frazier	0.2354	0.2818 (32.4)	0.2843 (31.2)	0.2755 (28.9)	0.2881 (35.7)
Yan Gomes	0.1886	0.3047 (31.2)	0.3110 (31.8)	0.2995 (30.1)	0.3099 (32.3)
Jean Segura	0.3506	0.3009 (32.9)	0.2945 (40.3)	0.3014 (31.9)	0.3004 (34.2)
Joe Panik	0.2434	0.2994 (30.6)	0.3247 (41.7)	0.2992 (31.1)	0.2996 (30.0)
J.T. Realmuto	0.3566	0.2880 (36.2)	0.2896 (37.6)	0.2844 (37.6)	0.2917 (34.9)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Corey Seager	0.3010	0.3553	35.8
2	Mark Reynolds	0.2892	0.3606	30.5
3	Ryan Howard	0.2827	0.2051	28.9
4	David Freese	0.3119	0.3723	28.7
5	Andrew McCutchen	0.3364	0.2972	27.9
6	Cameron Maybin	0.3064	0.3799	27.9
7	Wilson Ramos	0.2721	0.3273	27.7
8	Ian Desmond	0.3070	0.3498	27.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mark Reynolds	0.2765	0.3606	38.0
2	DJ LeMahieu	0.3333	0.3811	31.6
3	Derek Norris	0.3086	0.2377	31.5
4	Cameron Maybin	0.3036	0.3799	30.6
5	Trea Turner	0.2968	0.3882	30.3
6	Tim Anderson	0.2999	0.3677	30.1
7	Troy Tulowitzki	0.3293	0.2722	30.0
8	Ryan Howard	0.2895	0.2051	29.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Corey Seager	0.2973	0.3553	37.6
2	Andrew McCutchen	0.3412	0.2972	31.9
3	Ryan Howard	0.2826	0.2051	29.2
4	Freddie Freeman	0.3250	0.3702	29.0
5	Prince Fielder	0.3091	0.2346	28.8
6	Danny Espinosa	0.2988	0.2553	28.1
7	Cameron Maybin	0.3056	0.3799	27.8
8	Danny Valencia	0.2919	0.3460	26.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mark Reynolds	0.2720	0.3606	38.7
2	Corey Seager	0.3046	0.3553	34.2
3	David Freese	0.3053	0.3723	32.5
4	Derek Norris	0.3023	0.2377	30.0
5	David Ortiz	0.2632	0.3119	29.9
6	Ian Desmond	0.3055	0.3498	29.4
7	Wilson Ramos	0.2705	0.3273	29.2
8	DJ LeMahieu	0.3348	0.3811	28.8

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Troy Tulowitzki	0.3293	0.2954	0.2722	30.0	13.8	16.2
2	Tim Anderson	0.2999	0.3316	0.3677	30.1	14.6	15.5
3	Trea Turner	0.2968	0.3328	0.3882	30.3	17.2	13.0
4	Randal Grichuk	0.3306	0.3005	0.2943	16.4	4.0	12.4
5	Ryan Schimpf	0.2999	0.2555	0.2597	12.6	0.7	11.9
6	Corey Dickerson	0.3360	0.3115	0.2845	27.1	16.0	11.1
7	Joe Panik	0.3247	0.2994	0.2434	41.7	30.6	11.1
8	Trevor Story	0.2999	0.3221	0.3394	17.2	6.3	10.9
9	Tommy Joseph	0.2999	0.2641	0.2667	10.9	0.1	10.7
10	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.2906	0.3168	0.3122	15.0	4.3	10.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jayson Werth	0.3139	0.2978	0.2884	17.4	7.0	10.4
2	Odúbel Herrera	0.3239	0.3377	0.3470	13.1	4.7	8.4
3	Jonathan Schoop	0.2809	0.2935	0.3048	13.4	5.9	7.5
4	César Hernández	0.3163	0.3253	0.3588	24.4	19.5	4.9
5	Travis Shaw	0.3087	0.3004	0.2985	7.1	2.2	4.9
6	Nolan Arenado	0.3002	0.2950	0.2925	7.6	3.2	4.4
7	Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.2726	0.2810	0.3098	19.3	15.1	4.2
8	Ian Kinsler	0.2828	0.2899	0.3138	18.8	14.8	4.1
9	Andrew McCutchen	0.3412	0.3364	0.2972	31.9	27.9	3.9
10	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.3219	0.3168	0.3122	8.2	4.3	3.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	David Ortiz	0.2632	0.2767	0.3119	29.9	20.7	9.3
2	Mark Reynolds	0.2720	0.2892	0.3606	38.7	30.5	8.1
3	Victor Martinez	0.2744	0.2856	0.3030	16.9	9.3	7.6
4	Wil Myers	0.3212	0.3095	0.3053	11.3	4.3	7.0
5	Daniel Murphy	0.3041	0.3142	0.3479	25.0	18.4	6.6
6	Colby Rasmus	0.3110	0.2968	0.2563	23.2	17.8	5.4
7	Nomar Mazara	0.3241	0.3134	0.2992	14.6	9.3	5.3
8	Justin Turner	0.3320	0.3224	0.2930	24.8	19.7	5.1
9	Addison Russell	0.3158	0.3064	0.2773	23.5	18.7	4.8
10	Adonis García	0.2812	0.2882	0.3075	14.3	9.7	4.7

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Danny Valencia	0.2786	0.2144 (33.2)	0.2254 (28.8)	0.2148 (33.1)	0.2140 (33.4)
Ben Revere	0.1824	0.2777 (35.7)	0.2778 (34.8)	0.2774 (35.6)	0.2781 (35.9)
Bryce Harper	0.1947	0.2509 (35.2)	0.2500 (33.1)	0.2451 (31.5)	0.2569 (39.0)
Paulo Orlando	0.2966	0.2287 (32.9)	0.2000 (48.0)	0.2329 (30.9)	0.2246 (34.9)
Ian Desmond	0.2780	0.2314 (31.6)	0.2398 (27.6)	0.2304 (32.3)	0.2324 (30.9)
Corey Dickerson	0.1746	0.2219 (25.9)	0.2320 (30.1)	0.2185 (24.0)	0.2256 (27.9)
Jake Lamb	0.1773	0.2361 (34.9)	0.2454 (39.0)	0.2379 (35.9)	0.2342 (33.8)
Yan Gomes	0.1200	0.2203 (26.5)	0.2274 (27.7)	0.2187 (26.0)	0.2218 (26.9)
Joe Panik	0.1759	0.2348 (31.0)	0.2529 (39.2)	0.2361 (31.6)	0.2335 (30.3)
J.T. Realmuto	0.2793	0.2155 (34.8)	0.2149 (36.4)	0.2143 (35.5)	0.2167 (34.1)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Corey Seager	0.2135	0.2596	31.7
2	Cameron Maybin	0.2401	0.3118	28.1
3	Dustin Pedroia	0.2323	0.2714	27.4
4	Mark Reynolds	0.2118	0.2714	26.3
5	César Hernández	0.2588	0.3009	26.2
6	Neil Walker	0.2124	0.2695	26.2
7	Brad Miller	0.2256	0.1828	25.7
8	Jed Lowrie	0.1996	0.2691	25.7
9	David Freese	0.2396	0.2908	25.2
10	Mike Trout	0.2389	0.2758	25.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ryan Schimpf	0.2243	0.1169	34.6
2	Jonathan Villar	0.2194	0.2667	33.8
3	David Freese	0.2327	0.2908	29.8
4	Cameron Maybin	0.2423	0.3118	28.1
5	José Peraza	0.2065	0.3125	27.8
6	César Hernández	0.2588	0.3009	27.8
7	Mark Reynolds	0.2121	0.2714	27.2
8	Prince Fielder	0.2475	0.1731	26.6
9	Jose Iglesias	0.2641	0.2104	26.3
10	Justin Turner	0.2508	0.2070	25.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cameron Maybin	0.2344	0.3118	30.3
2	César Hernández	0.2524	0.3009	30.3
3	Corey Seager	0.2172	0.2596	29.2
4	Dustin Pedroia	0.2332	0.2714	26.8
5	Brad Miller	0.2260	0.1828	25.9
6	Neil Walker	0.2134	0.2695	25.8
7	Prince Fielder	0.2394	0.1731	24.5
8	Ian Kinsler	0.2096	0.2448	24.0
9	Jed Lowrie	0.2044	0.2691	23.9
10	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2374	0.2705	23.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Corey Seager	0.2097	0.2596	34.2
2	Mark Reynolds	0.1967	0.2714	32.9
3	Mike Trout	0.2308	0.2758	30.6
4	Byron Buxton	0.2707	0.1808	29.8
5	David Freese	0.2336	0.2908	28.1
6	Dustin Pedroia	0.2313	0.2714	28.0
7	Jed Lowrie	0.1949	0.2691	27.4
8	ByungHo Park	0.2620	0.1508	27.1
9	Chase Utley	0.1758	0.2234	26.9
10	Neil Walker	0.2113	0.2695	26.6

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tim Anderson	0.2243	0.2660	0.2715	21.4	2.4	19.0
2	Ryan Schimpf	0.2243	0.1743	0.1169	34.6	18.9	15.7
3	Troy Tulowitzki	0.2515	0.2207	0.2156	18.2	2.7	15.4
4	Paulo Orlando	0.2000	0.2287	0.2966	48.0	32.9	15.1
5	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.1966	0.2156	0.2183	15.4	1.7	13.6
6	Nomar Mazara	0.2243	0.2439	0.2583	20.7	8.2	12.5
7	Jonathan Villar	0.2194	0.2344	0.2667	33.8	21.9	11.9
8	Marcus Semien	0.2340	0.2133	0.1955	22.3	11.0	11.3
9	Trea Turner	0.2323	0.2605	0.2954	21.3	11.3	9.9
10	Yasmany Tomás	0.2587	0.2399	0.2253	17.4	8.2	9.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jayson Werth	0.2394	0.2236	0.2129	15.9	6.4	9.5
2	David Ortiz	0.2063	0.1939	0.1952	6.8	0.8	6.0
3	Nelson Cruz	0.2185	0.2271	0.2487	20.3	14.5	5.8
4	Daniel Murphy	0.2433	0.2340	0.2341	5.3	0.1	5.1
5	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	0.2145	0.1997	0.2011	5.2	0.5	4.7
6	Odúbel Herrera	0.2559	0.2627	0.2854	19.5	14.9	4.6
7	Ian Kinsler	0.2096	0.2162	0.2448	24.0	19.4	4.5
8	Nomar Mazara	0.2363	0.2439	0.2583	12.6	8.2	4.4
9	Brian Dozier	0.1975	0.1913	0.1878	6.6	2.4	4.2
10	César Hernández	0.2524	0.2588	0.3009	30.3	26.2	4.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	David Ortiz	0.1813	0.1939	0.1952	8.7	0.8	7.9
2	Jonathan Schoop	0.2404	0.2295	0.2193	13.7	6.6	7.1
3	Mark Reynolds	0.1967	0.2118	0.2714	32.9	26.3	6.6
4	Carlos Beltrán	0.1944	0.2049	0.2371	25.3	19.1	6.2
5	Nolan Arenado	0.1939	0.2027	0.2075	9.4	3.3	6.1
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	0.1842	0.1997	0.2011	6.6	0.5	6.0
7	Chase Utley	0.1758	0.1862	0.2234	26.9	21.0	5.8
8	Wil Myers	0.2409	0.2324	0.2260	10.1	4.3	5.8
9	Mike Trout	0.2308	0.2389	0.2758	30.6	25.1	5.5
10	Daniel Murphy	0.2245	0.2340	0.2341	5.6	0.1	5.5

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Freddie Freeman	0.1105	0.0832 (17.3)	0.0811 (19.9)	0.0817 (18.1)	0.0847 (16.6)
Joc Pederson	0.1024	0.0603 (18.9)	0.0645 (17.7)	0.0585 (19.6)	0.0623 (18.2)
Neil Walker	0.0292	0.0678 (18.8)	0.0667 (17.5)	0.0660 (18.1)	0.0696 (19.4)
Colby Rasmus	0.0420	0.0802 (16.9)	0.0879 (19.5)	0.0738 (14.4)	0.0866 (19.4)
David Ortiz	0.1143	0.0817 (18.9)	0.0826 (19.3)	0.0815 (18.8)	0.0819 (19.1)
Maikel Franco	0.0507	0.0765 (17.8)	0.0775 (17.4)	0.0707 (14.4)	0.0823 (21.2)
José Ramírez	0.0926	0.0573 (20.3)	0.0540 (23.4)	0.0558 (21.0)	0.0588 (19.7)
Nomar Mazara	0.0332	0.0627 (18.1)	0.0685 (20.4)	0.0617 (17.7)	0.0637 (18.4)
Jean Segura	0.0785	0.0431 (23.0)	0.0388 (27.0)	0.0470 (20.0)	0.0391 (26.0)
Danny Espinosa	0.0456	0.0758 (19.6)	0.0730 (16.9)	0.0749 (19.3)	0.0766 (19.8)
Adam Jones	0.0393	0.0644 (18.5)	0.0635 (16.8)	0.0639 (18.4)	0.0649 (18.5)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jonathan Villar	0.0589	0.0938	22.1
2	Albert Pujols	0.0622	0.0385	17.0
3	Jon Jay	0.0500	0.0967	16.6
4	Byron Buxton	0.0551	0.1073	16.5
5	Marcell Ozuna	0.0778	0.0544	15.7
6	Andrew McCutchen	0.0805	0.0599	15.5
7	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	0.0865	0.0370	15.2
8	Jake Smolinski	0.0698	0.0248	15.1
9	Cameron Rupp	0.0618	0.1000	15.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Travis Shaw	0.0642	0.1015	19.4
2	Odúbel Herrera	0.0767	0.0479	19.4
3	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	0.1024	0.0370	19.3
4	Jake Lamb	0.0586	0.0901	18.3
5	Michael Saunders	0.0701	0.1022	17.5
6	Seth Smith	0.0932	0.0542	17.5
7	Jon Jay	0.0494	0.0967	17.4
8	Andrew McCutchen	0.0846	0.0599	17.2
9	Cameron Rupp	0.0596	0.1000	16.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jonathan Villar	0.0595	0.0938	21.5
2	Andrew McCutchen	0.0817	0.0599	16.6
3	Jedd Gyorko	0.0661	0.0327	15.8
4	Cameron Rupp	0.0598	0.1000	15.7
5	Byron Buxton	0.0575	0.1073	15.6
6	Marcell Ozuna	0.0773	0.0544	15.6
7	César Hernández	0.0547	0.0324	15.6
8	Albert Pujols	0.0590	0.0385	15.0
9	Jake Smolinski	0.0673	0.0248	14.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jonathan Villar	0.0583	0.0938	22.9
2	Jon Jay	0.0435	0.0967	19.2
3	Albert Pujols	0.0655	0.0385	18.8
4	Hanley Ramirez	0.0976	0.0695	18.6
5	Byron Buxton	0.0526	0.1073	17.5
6	Odúbel Herrera	0.0720	0.0479	17.0
7	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	0.0904	0.0370	16.2
8	Daniel Murphy	0.0735	0.1028	16.0
9	Jake Smolinski	0.0725	0.0248	15.8

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jake Lamb	0.0586	0.0760	0.0901	18.3	7.0	11.3
2	Trevor Story	0.0685	0.0859	0.0963	11.2	3.3	7.9
3	Freddy Galvis	0.0396	0.0504	0.0591	11.7	3.9	7.8
4	Adam Duvall	0.0577	0.0676	0.0852	16.2	9.2	7.0
5	Michael Saunders	0.0701	0.0808	0.1022	17.5	10.6	6.9
6	Ketel Marte	0.0720	0.0558	0.0582	6.8	0.0	6.8
7	Travis Shaw	0.0642	0.0748	0.1015	19.4	12.9	6.5
8	Kevin Pillar	0.0650	0.0743	0.0766	6.3	0.1	6.3
9	José Peraza	0.0645	0.0388	0.0385	6.9	0.7	6.2
10	Mark Reynolds	0.0606	0.0721	0.0892	12.3	6.5	5.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chris Carter	0.0734	0.0799	0.0865	6.7	2.7	4.0
2	Stephen Piscotty	0.0711	0.0773	0.0812	4.8	1.0	3.8
3	Corey Seager	0.0746	0.0792	0.0851	5.4	2.4	3.0
4	Eduardo Núñez	0.0651	0.0608	0.0525	9.1	6.4	2.7
5	Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.0662	0.0711	0.0756	3.8	1.1	2.6
6	Jung Ho Kang	0.0683	0.0758	0.0864	5.7	3.0	2.6
7	Ángel Pagán	0.0624	0.0583	0.0567	4.6	2.1	2.4
8	Randal Grichuk	0.0725	0.0778	0.1028	13.2	10.8	2.4
9	Carlos Beltrán	0.0699	0.0741	0.0775	2.9	0.5	2.3
10	Michael Bourn	0.0559	0.0508	0.0451	5.6	3.3	2.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hanley Ramirez	0.0976	0.0863	0.0695	18.6	11.9	6.7
2	Manny Machado	0.0624	0.0681	0.0820	12.3	8.0	4.4
3	Joey Votto	0.0932	0.0872	0.0819	8.9	5.2	3.7
4	Justin Turner	0.0891	0.0831	0.0791	7.4	4.0	3.4
5	Maikel Franco	0.0823	0.0765	0.0507	21.2	17.8	3.4
6	Odúbel Herrera	0.0720	0.0666	0.0479	17.0	13.8	3.2
7	Jean Segura	0.0391	0.0431	0.0785	26.0	23.0	3.1
8	Tyler Goeddel	0.0685	0.0562	0.0189	12.1	9.3	2.8
9	Jose Iglesias	0.0399	0.0446	0.0615	10.1	7.4	2.7
10	Jon Jay	0.0435	0.0500	0.0967	19.2	16.6	2.6

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Freddie Freeman	0.0154	0.0045 (7.7)	0.0060 (6.7)	0.0038 (7.6)	0.0053 (7.7)
Kevin Kiermaier	0.0071	0.0229 (6.5)	0.0241 (6.9)	0.0195 (5.4)	0.0262 (7.5)
J.T. Realmuto	0.0000	0.0132 (7.1)	0.0149 (8.0)	0.0126 (7.2)	0.0139 (7.0)
Chris Owings	0.0315	0.0135 (8.5)	0.0138 (8.4)	0.0113 (9.1)	0.0156 (7.9)
Jay Bruce	0.0157	0.0044 (6.8)	0.0055 (6.2)	0.0060 (5.3)	0.0027 (8.3)
Brandon Belt	0.0210	0.0099 (7.4)	0.0095 (7.7)	0.0096 (7.0)	0.0102 (7.8)
Elvis Andrus	0.0159	0.0048 (6.5)	0.0043 (6.8)	0.0038 (6.5)	0.0057 (6.4)
Eddie Rosario	0.0084	0.0239 (5.4)	0.0324 (8.4)	0.0230 (5.4)	0.0247 (5.4)
Kolten Wong	0.0268	0.0095 (6.3)	0.0073 (7.1)	0.0075 (6.7)	0.0116 (5.9)
Jake Lamb	0.0262	0.0136 (7.5)	0.0147 (7.0)	0.0125 (7.7)	0.0149 (7.3)
Trea Turner	0.0338	0.0123 (7.0)	0.0065 (8.9)	0.0096 (7.6)	0.0150 (6.4)
Evan Gattis	0.0000	0.0152 (7.5)	0.0137 (6.7)	0.0154 (8.0)	0.0150 (7.0)
Ryan Schimpf	0.0325	0.0036 (9.6)	0.0072 (8.4)	0.0034 (9.4)	0.0039 (9.8)
Brandon Crawford	0.0253	0.0120 (8.4)	0.0138 (7.3)	0.0104 (8.8)	0.0135 (8.0)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	César Hernández	0.0143	0.0255	7.1
2	Rougned Odor	0.0192	0.0091	6.3
3	Adam Duvall	0.0064	0.0165	6.2
4	Tyler Naquin	0.0083	0.0251	6.2
5	Tim Beckham	0.0133	0.0391	5.6
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	0.0030	0.0159	5.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	César Hernández	0.0096	0.0255	10.0
2	Byron Buxton	0.0108	0.0339	7.7
3	Tyler Naquin	0.0072	0.0251	6.7
4	Rougned Odor	0.0195	0.0091	6.4
5	Adam Duvall	0.0064	0.0165	6.3
6	Joe Panik	0.0057	0.0169	6.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	César Hernández	0.0092	0.0255	9.7
2	Adam Duvall	0.0040	0.0165	7.2
3	Tyler Naquin	0.0048	0.0251	7.2
4	Matt Carpenter	0.0059	0.0171	5.9
5	Tim Beckham	0.0114	0.0391	5.8
6	Joe Panik	0.0059	0.0169	5.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Rougned Odor	0.0224	0.0091	7.7
2	Jonathan Villar	0.0194	0.0074	7.4
3	Rajai Davis	0.0211	0.0059	7.0
4	Lonnie Chisenhall	0.0029	0.0159	5.9
5	Yoenis Cespedes	0.0140	0.0029	5.5
6	Alejandro De Aza	0.0213	0.0000	5.4

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Paulo Orlando	0.0217	0.0117	0.0113	4.9	0.1	4.8
2	Trevor Story	0.0072	0.0189	0.0183	4.8	0.2	4.6
3	Cheslor Cuthbert	0.0125	0.0048	0.0027	4.9	1.0	3.9
4	Stephen Piscotty	0.0132	0.0070	0.0070	3.9	0.1	3.8
5	Byron Buxton	0.0108	0.0201	0.0339	7.7	4.6	3.1
6	Eddie Rosario	0.0324	0.0239	0.0084	8.4	5.4	3.0
7	César Hernández	0.0096	0.0143	0.0255	10.0	7.1	3.0
8	Jeremy Hazelbaker	0.0072	0.0196	0.0231	3.6	0.8	2.8
9	Tim Anderson	0.0072	0.0127	0.0206	5.9	3.5	2.4
10	Carlos Correa	0.0034	0.0078	0.0071	2.6	0.3	2.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	César Hernández	0.0092	0.0143	0.0255	9.7	7.1	2.6
2	Starling Marte	0.0088	0.0127	0.0133	2.0	0.4	1.6
3	Brett Gardner	0.0100	0.0132	0.0135	1.8	0.3	1.5
4	Corey Seager	0.0055	0.0083	0.0106	3.1	1.8	1.3
5	Welington Castillo	0.0038	0.0019	0.0000	2.1	0.8	1.3
6	Chris Davis	0.0016	0.0008	0.0000	1.5	0.4	1.1
7	Albert Pujols	0.0017	0.0008	0.0000	1.5	0.4	1.1
8	Victor Martinez	0.0017	0.0009	0.0000	1.5	0.4	1.1
9	Adam Duvall	0.0040	0.0064	0.0165	7.2	6.2	1.0
10	Jarrod Dyson	0.0176	0.0212	0.0299	3.9	3.0	0.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jonathan Villar	0.0194	0.0148	0.0074	7.4	4.9	2.5
2	Adalberto Mondesi	0.0072	0.0189	0.0330	4.0	2.1	1.9
3	Rajai Davis	0.0211	0.0165	0.0059	7.0	5.1	1.9
4	Mike Trout	0.0205	0.0173	0.0129	4.5	2.9	1.6
5	Jay Bruce	0.0027	0.0044	0.0157	8.3	6.8	1.5
6	Rougned Odor	0.0224	0.0192	0.0091	7.7	6.3	1.4
7	Kris Bryant	0.0147	0.0118	0.0073	4.5	3.1	1.4
8	Leonys Martin	0.0129	0.0096	0.0082	2.1	0.7	1.4
9	Didi Gregorius	0.0121	0.0090	0.0043	4.1	2.7	1.4
10	Ian Desmond	0.0052	0.0062	0.0067	1.7	0.5	1.3

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Ian Desmond	0.1581	0.1097 (27.4)	0.1117 (28.3)	0.1077 (27.0)	0.1118 (28.0)
Xander Bogaerts	0.1599	0.1180 (24.5)	0.1159 (28.4)	0.1223 (19.5)	0.1137 (29.7)
Charlie Blackmon	0.1732	0.1235 (26.8)	0.1291 (25.3)	0.1326 (19.3)	0.1144 (34.5)
José Abreu	0.0964	0.1340 (31.6)	0.1275 (24.8)	0.1305 (31.0)	0.1375 (32.0)
Jean Segura	0.1470	0.1034 (24.8)	0.1075 (24.2)	0.0982 (26.5)	0.1086 (23.2)
Alcides Escobar	0.0836	0.1080 (22.0)	0.1100 (21.1)	0.1039 (21.0)	0.1121 (22.8)
Ian Kinsler	0.1723	0.1287 (24.3)	0.1348 (22.4)	0.1245 (25.3)	0.1328 (23.5)
DJ LeMahieu	0.1638	0.1076 (30.7)	0.1182 (26.1)	0.1106 (27.1)	0.1046 (34.5)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Nolan Arenado	0.1231	0.1667	24.8
2	Jason Heyward	0.1367	0.1030	24.6
3	Aledmys Díaz	0.1019	0.1543	20.5
4	Trevor Story	0.1069	0.1614	19.4
5	Corey Seager	0.1177	0.1528	18.8
6	Erick Aybar	0.1069	0.0741	18.7
7	Dustin Pedroia	0.1160	0.1504	18.5
8	Mike Napoli	0.1063	0.1426	18.4
9	Bryce Harper	0.1555	0.1340	18.4
10	Josh Donaldson	0.1405	0.1743	18.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Troy Tulowitzki	0.1480	0.0993	29.0
2	Kris Bryant	0.1275	0.1731	28.7
3	Nolan Arenado	0.1248	0.1667	26.0
4	Jose Altuve	0.1150	0.1506	22.3
5	Erick Aybar	0.1159	0.0741	21.3
6	Dustin Pedroia	0.1154	0.1504	21.3
7	Corey Dickerson	0.1382	0.1040	21.2
8	Cameron Maybin	0.1089	0.1662	20.6
9	Adam Duvall	0.1020	0.1398	20.2
10	George Springer	0.1245	0.1559	20.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jason Heyward	0.1347	0.1030	25.0
2	Aledmys Díaz	0.0948	0.1543	22.6
3	Prince Fielder	0.1289	0.0784	22.6
4	Corey Seager	0.1110	0.1528	21.5
5	Troy Tulowitzki	0.1256	0.0993	20.0
6	Giancarlo Stanton	0.1486	0.1191	18.8
7	Kris Bryant	0.1359	0.1731	18.7
8	Chase Utley	0.0966	0.1398	18.5
9	Cameron Maybin	0.1103	0.1662	17.8
10	Trevor Story	0.1088	0.1614	17.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Nolan Arenado	0.1144	0.1667	33.0
2	Dustin Pedroia	0.1071	0.1504	26.8
3	Mike Napoli	0.0979	0.1426	25.6
4	Jason Heyward	0.1387	0.1030	24.0
5	Erick Aybar	0.1203	0.0741	23.5
6	Francisco Lindor	0.1060	0.1447	23.1
7	Josh Donaldson	0.1385	0.1743	21.6
8	Trevor Story	0.1050	0.1614	21.4
9	Bryce Harper	0.1606	0.1340	19.8
10	Derek Dietrich	0.1370	0.0947	19.5

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	George Springer	0.1245	0.1379	0.1559	20.0	7.6	12.4
2	Adam Duvall	0.1020	0.1191	0.1398	20.2	7.8	12.4
3	Jose Altuve	0.1150	0.1288	0.1506	22.3	10.0	12.2
4	Troy Tulowitzki	0.1480	0.1240	0.0993	29.0	17.7	11.3
5	Corey Dickerson	0.1382	0.1145	0.1040	21.2	10.0	11.2
6	Kris Bryant	0.1275	0.1394	0.1731	28.7	18.1	10.6
7	Rougned Odor	0.1066	0.1189	0.1408	18.7	8.9	9.8
8	Chris Carter	0.1111	0.1232	0.1304	9.5	0.4	9.1
9	Mike Trout	0.1502	0.1600	0.1806	17.6	8.7	8.9
10	Mark Reynolds	0.0991	0.1144	0.1383	15.3	7.1	8.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	David Ortiz	0.1370	0.1179	0.1262	13.3	0.3	13.1
2	Ángel Pagán	0.0894	0.1060	0.1308	16.8	9.2	7.6
3	Miguel Cabrera	0.1418	0.1336	0.1355	11.4	4.0	7.4
4	Victor Martinez	0.1193	0.1099	0.1066	14.2	6.8	7.3
5	Prince Fielder	0.1289	0.1142	0.0784	22.6	16.1	6.4
6	Rajai Davis	0.1043	0.1190	0.1495	17.2	11.2	6.0
7	Wil Myers	0.1137	0.1246	0.1464	15.0	9.5	5.5
8	Kurt Suzuki	0.0971	0.0855	0.0912	6.1	0.8	5.3
9	Yadier Molina	0.0954	0.0890	0.0964	5.5	0.2	5.3
10	Freddie Freeman	0.1224	0.1325	0.1472	9.9	4.7	5.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	David Ortiz	0.0989	0.1179	0.1262	14.0	0.3	13.8
2	Dustin Pedroia	0.1071	0.1160	0.1504	26.8	18.5	8.2
3	Nolan Arenado	0.1144	0.1231	0.1667	33.0	24.8	8.1
4	Charlie Blackmon	0.1144	0.1235	0.1732	34.5	26.8	7.7
5	Mike Napoli	0.0979	0.1063	0.1426	25.6	18.4	7.2
6	Peter Bourjos	0.1341	0.1130	0.1044	13.3	6.3	7.0
7	Nick Castellanos	0.0847	0.0969	0.1208	13.9	7.2	6.8
8	Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.1252	0.1105	0.1144	8.9	2.2	6.7
9	Jose Altuve	0.1227	0.1288	0.1506	16.5	10.0	6.5
10	Carlos Santana	0.1098	0.1161	0.1294	10.1	3.8	6.3

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Mookie Betts	0.1548	0.1135 (27.1)	0.1097 (29.2)	0.1119 (27.9)	0.1151 (26.5)
Trevor Story	0.1735	0.1142 (22.9)	0.1142 (22.5)	0.1124 (23.4)	0.1160 (22.5)
Chris Davis	0.1263	0.1704 (32.0)	0.1621 (27.1)	0.1572 (23.6)	0.1835 (40.2)
Daniel Murphy	0.1787	0.1157 (34.3)	0.1113 (36.3)	0.1092 (37.7)	0.1221 (31.0)
Jose Altuve	0.1339	0.0924 (26.8)	0.0895 (28.3)	0.0925 (26.4)	0.0924 (27.4)
Brett Gardner	0.0647	0.0971 (23.2)	0.0957 (22.9)	0.0956 (22.5)	0.0987 (23.7)
Nick Markakis	0.1301	0.0788 (32.3)	0.0807 (30.4)	0.0809 (30.5)	0.0767 (34.3)
Yangervis Solarte	0.1603	0.0993 (25.2)	0.1020 (23.6)	0.0992 (25.0)	0.0993 (25.5)
Jake Lamb	0.1532	0.1046 (26.5)	0.0913 (33.8)	0.1082 (24.0)	0.1009 (29.1)
Gregory Polanco	0.1465	0.0964 (27.0)	0.0911 (29.6)	0.0924 (29.0)	0.1005 (25.1)
Christian Yelich	0.1487	0.0901 (35.9)	0.0832 (39.9)	0.0946 (32.6)	0.0856 (39.4)
Nolan Arenado	0.1911	0.1492 (26.3)	0.1484 (26.2)	0.1562 (21.0)	0.1422 (31.7)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mark Teixeira	0.1623	0.1005	28.9
2	Ryan Zimmerman	0.1472	0.0985	24.6
3	Addison Russell	0.1143	0.1589	24.2
4	Brian Dozier	0.1049	0.1433	23.7
5	Mike Napoli	0.1162	0.1566	23.4
6	Travis d'Arnaud	0.1342	0.0543	23.2
7	David Ortiz	0.1619	0.2029	23.1
8	Josh Reddick	0.1306	0.0843	22.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adam Duvall	0.1020	0.1694	37.9
2	Travis Jankowski	0.1102	0.0313	32.1
3	Addison Russell	0.1040	0.1589	29.8
4	Hanley Ramirez	0.1323	0.1790	25.9
5	Ryan Zimmerman	0.1470	0.0985	25.0
6	Albert Pujols	0.1414	0.1831	23.8
7	José Ramírez	0.0817	0.1230	22.4
8	Brian Dozier	0.1059	0.1433	22.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	David Ortiz	0.1546	0.2029	27.3
2	Addison Russell	0.1106	0.1589	26.1
3	Brian Dozier	0.1020	0.1433	25.3
4	Josh Reddick	0.1313	0.0843	22.7
5	Jonathan Lucroy	0.1032	0.1489	22.3
6	Travis Jankowski	0.0823	0.0313	21.3
7	Travis d'Arnaud	0.1266	0.0543	21.2
8	Jay Bruce	0.1291	0.1681	20.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mark Teixeira	0.1829	0.1005	37.5
2	Ryan Zimmerman	0.1620	0.0985	31.2
3	Michael Saunders	0.1516	0.1022	29.5
4	Mike Napoli	0.1116	0.1566	26.9
5	Travis d'Arnaud	0.1418	0.0543	25.0
6	Brian McCann	0.1649	0.1179	24.8
7	Howie Kendrick	0.1138	0.0737	23.6
8	Corey Seager	0.1353	0.1048	23.2

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Adam Duvall	0.1020	0.1390	0.1694	37.9	16.0	21.9
2	Anthony Rizzo	0.1276	0.1495	0.1612	19.3	5.1	14.2
3	Travis Jankowski	0.1102	0.0765	0.0313	32.1	18.9	13.3
4	Javier Báez	0.0886	0.1364	0.1311	16.9	4.2	12.7
5	Mark Trumbo	0.1341	0.1526	0.1619	15.2	3.5	11.7
6	Tim Anderson	0.1142	0.0886	0.0696	21.4	10.0	11.4
7	Manny Machado	0.1082	0.1251	0.1379	17.2	6.1	11.1
8	Whit Merrifield	0.1142	0.0847	0.0873	10.6	0.5	10.1
9	Joey Rickard	0.1142	0.0807	0.0674	14.6	4.9	9.7
10	Jonathan Schoop	0.1053	0.1206	0.1267	10.7	1.3	9.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mark Trumbo	0.1383	0.1526	0.1619	12.6	3.5	9.2
2	Jose Iglesias	0.0930	0.0785	0.0624	18.1	10.4	7.8
3	Bryce Harper	0.1577	0.1471	0.1372	15.8	8.8	7.0
4	Brandon Crawford	0.1025	0.1127	0.1348	17.2	11.2	6.0
5	Ryan Howard	0.1227	0.1398	0.1630	12.9	6.9	6.0
6	Wilson Ramos	0.1215	0.1334	0.1530	14.0	8.1	6.0
7	Russell Martin	0.1169	0.1284	0.1383	9.0	3.1	5.9
8	Matt Kemp	0.1263	0.1350	0.1607	20.0	14.5	5.4
9	Ryan Braun	0.1346	0.1446	0.1613	12.5	7.1	5.3
10	Matt Carpenter	0.0933	0.1032	0.1201	12.6	7.3	5.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Michael Saunders	0.1516	0.1313	0.1022	29.5	18.5	10.9
2	Chris Carter	0.1683	0.1535	0.1460	16.5	7.5	9.0
3	Mark Teixeira	0.1829	0.1623	0.1005	37.5	28.9	8.7
4	Carlos Correa	0.1583	0.1448	0.1455	10.6	2.3	8.4
5	Chris Davis	0.1835	0.1704	0.1263	40.2	32.0	8.2
6	Victor Martinez	0.1590	0.1448	0.1410	13.0	4.8	8.1
7	Adrián González	0.1625	0.1492	0.1422	14.9	7.0	7.9
8	Brian McCann	0.1649	0.1489	0.1179	24.8	17.3	7.5
9	Corey Seager	0.1353	0.1237	0.1048	23.2	15.8	7.4
10	Josh Donaldson	0.1615	0.1508	0.1414	16.4	9.4	7.0

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Bryce Harper	0.1141	0.0318 (58.5)	0.0407 (49.4)	0.0369 (54.5)	0.0269 (62.1)
Paul Goldschmidt	0.1397	0.0802 (49.6)	0.0800 (45.9)	0.0711 (55.2)	0.0894 (43.8)
Rajai Davis	0.3772	0.2665 (60.2)	0.2700 (55.7)	0.2392 (73.1)	0.2941 (47.0)
B.J. Upton	0.2288	0.1414 (52.9)	0.1325 (54.8)	0.1285 (59.3)	0.1548 (46.3)
Wil Myers	0.1687	0.0707 (73.6)	0.0667 (72.6)	0.0679 (74.6)	0.0734 (72.4)
Eduardo Núñez	0.2685	0.1643 (68.4)	0.1370 (81.4)	0.1459 (78.6)	0.1833 (57.7)
Hernán Pérez	0.3579	0.1191 (107.4)	0.0822 (120.8)	0.1068 (112.1)	0.1313 (102.5)
Manny Machado	0.0000	0.0931 (57.3)	0.0728 (47.0)	0.0858 (53.0)	0.1000 (61.4)
Freddy Galvis	0.1417	0.0484 (65.0)	0.0574 (55.9)	0.0491 (63.7)	0.0476 (66.0)
Charlie Blackmon	0.0977	0.1918 (53.4)	0.1842 (52.0)	0.1985 (58.5)	0.1852 (48.5)
Keon Broxton	0.3485	0.1743 (45.2)	0.0816 (66.4)	0.1706 (45.7)	0.1782 (44.4)
Trea Turner	0.3882	0.1621 (76.8)	0.0714 (104.4)	0.1511 (79.9)	0.1739 (73.3)
Starling Marte	0.3287	0.1943 (76.8)	0.1986 (71.6)	0.1732 (87.3)	0.2157 (66.0)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	George Springer	0.1193	0.0441	47.8
2	Tim Anderson	0.2283	0.1075	47.4
3	Carlos Correa	0.1502	0.0726	44.0
4	Jonathan Villar	0.2777	0.3280	41.6
5	Jose Altuve	0.2083	0.1415	40.1
6	Chris Owings	0.1249	0.1981	39.2
7	Derek Norris	0.0329	0.1047	37.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jonathan Villar	0.2090	0.3280	84.5
2	Travis Jankowski	0.0702	0.2752	80.6
3	Mallex Smith	0.0570	0.3019	53.8
4	Jacoby Ellsbury	0.2045	0.1227	47.9
5	José Peraza	0.0980	0.2727	46.1
6	Rougned Odor	0.0536	0.1197	45.1
7	Jose Altuve	0.2083	0.1415	44.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tim Anderson	0.2402	0.1075	53.0
2	Jonathan Villar	0.2660	0.3280	48.6
3	Mike Trout	0.0764	0.1282	41.8
4	Chris Owings	0.1193	0.1981	41.2
5	Travis Jankowski	0.1841	0.2752	38.6
6	Derek Norris	0.0301	0.1047	38.5
7	George Springer	0.1049	0.0441	38.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carlos Correa	0.1729	0.0726	58.4
2	George Springer	0.1339	0.0441	58.0
3	Jose Altuve	0.2151	0.1415	44.3
4	Adalberto Mondesi	0.0570	0.3333	42.9
5	Rougned Odor	0.0647	0.1197	42.2
6	Tim Anderson	0.2162	0.1075	41.8
7	Marwin Gonzalez	0.0506	0.1111	37.4

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Travis Jankowski	0.0702	0.2065	0.2752	80.6	30.5	50.1
2	Mallex Smith	0.0570	0.2939	0.3019	53.8	4.1	49.7
3	Jonathan Villar	0.2090	0.2777	0.3280	84.5	41.6	42.9
4	José Peraza	0.0980	0.2471	0.2727	46.1	9.3	36.7
5	Byron Buxton	0.0678	0.1660	0.1724	36.4	5.7	30.7
6	Trea Turner	0.0714	0.1621	0.3882	104.4	76.8	27.6
7	Paulo Orlando	0.0625	0.1260	0.1120	26.5	1.5	25.0
8	Nomar Mazara	0.0570	0.0196	0.0000	29.3	4.9	24.4
9	Keon Broxton	0.0816	0.1743	0.3485	66.4	45.2	21.2
10	Orlando Arcia	0.0570	0.1543	0.1905	30.0	10.2	19.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Rajai Davis	0.2392	0.2665	0.3772	73.1	60.2	12.9
2	Starling Marte	0.1732	0.1943	0.3287	87.3	76.8	10.5
3	Eduardo Núñez	0.1459	0.1643	0.2685	78.6	68.4	10.2
4	Coco Crisp	0.0867	0.1067	0.0952	9.0	0.3	8.7
5	Travis Jankowski	0.1841	0.2065	0.2752	38.6	30.5	8.1
6	Jonathan Villar	0.2660	0.2777	0.3280	48.6	41.6	7.1
7	Billy Hamilton	0.4282	0.4437	0.4874	31.7	25.1	6.6
8	Jean Segura	0.1612	0.1719	0.1774	17.9	11.4	6.5
9	Jose Iglesias	0.0970	0.0859	0.0560	16.1	9.8	6.3
10	B.J. Upton	0.1285	0.1414	0.2288	59.3	52.9	6.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Adalberto Mondesi	0.0570	0.1863	0.3333	42.9	23.5	19.4
2	Carlos Correa	0.1729	0.1502	0.0726	58.4	44.0	14.4
3	Carlos González	0.0762	0.0536	0.0132	32.4	18.7	13.7
4	George Springer	0.1339	0.1193	0.0441	58.0	47.8	10.1
5	Jarrod Dyson	0.4328	0.4028	0.3371	28.3	18.5	9.8
6	Leonys Martin	0.2277	0.2101	0.1714	25.6	16.0	9.6
7	Coco Crisp	0.1264	0.1067	0.0952	9.7	0.3	9.4
8	Hanley Ramirez	0.0952	0.0796	0.0545	17.9	8.8	9.1
9	Jason Kipnis	0.1220	0.1088	0.0904	13.6	5.2	8.4
10	Rougned Odor	0.0647	0.0768	0.1197	42.2	33.9	8.2

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Sandy León	0.3095	0.2167 (25.8)	0.2186 (26.2)	0.2221 (24.4)	0.2114 (27.2)
Ben Revere	0.2171	0.3003 (31.8)	0.2980 (29.6)	0.2998 (31.4)	0.3007 (32.1)
Bryce Harper	0.2431	0.3056 (40.2)	0.2921 (29.6)	0.3005 (36.7)	0.3108 (43.6)
Derek Norris	0.1855	0.2435 (27.3)	0.2553 (31.1)	0.2400 (25.4)	0.2470 (29.0)
Jonathan Villar	0.2852	0.2391 (30.3)	0.2407 (31.4)	0.2382 (31.2)	0.2399 (29.5)
David Ortiz	0.3147	0.2690 (27.6)	0.2743 (26.5)	0.2742 (24.7)	0.2637 (30.7)
Andrew McCutchen	0.2559	0.2946 (27.3)	0.2971 (26.6)	0.2965 (28.2)	0.2927 (26.2)
José Ramírez	0.3115	0.2619 (29.7)	0.2426 (43.7)	0.2616 (30.2)	0.2622 (29.3)
Wilson Ramos	0.3071	0.2505 (28.8)	0.2495 (31.1)	0.2516 (28.4)	0.2493 (29.2)
Jean Segura	0.3187	0.2687 (33.6)	0.2625 (40.3)	0.2703 (32.8)	0.2670 (34.5)
J.T. Realmuto	0.3026	0.2537 (25.8)	0.2572 (25.7)	0.2557 (24.9)	0.2517 (26.7)
DJ LeMahieu	0.3478	0.2874 (37.3)	0.2819 (43.1)	0.2881 (37.3)	0.2868 (37.6)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Daniel Murphy	0.2945	0.3465	29.3
2	Corey Seager	0.2640	0.3078	29.0
3	Jason Heyward	0.2765	0.2302	28.4
4	Joey Votto	0.2849	0.3255	26.4
5	Prince Fielder	0.2809	0.2117	26.2
6	Ian Desmond	0.2446	0.2848	26.1
7	Charlie Blackmon	0.2830	0.3235	25.0
8	Dustin Pedroia	0.2804	0.3175	24.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Daniel Murphy	0.2805	0.3465	39.5
2	Trea Turner	0.2512	0.3420	30.0
3	Joe Panik	0.2941	0.2392	27.9
4	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.2262	0.2670	27.1
5	Mookie Betts	0.2832	0.3185	27.1
6	Charlie Blackmon	0.2836	0.3235	26.7
7	Mark Reynolds	0.2244	0.2824	26.4
8	Prince Fielder	0.2840	0.2117	26.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Corey Seager	0.2624	0.3078	30.5
2	Prince Fielder	0.2909	0.2117	29.7
3	Jason Heyward	0.2787	0.2302	29.4
4	Ian Desmond	0.2428	0.2848	27.7
5	Joey Votto	0.2841	0.3255	27.3
6	Charlie Blackmon	0.2807	0.3235	26.8
7	Alex Gordon	0.2707	0.2202	26.1
8	Dustin Pedroia	0.2817	0.3175	24.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Daniel Murphy	0.2850	0.3465	34.7
2	Chris Davis	0.2654	0.2208	30.9
3	Corey Seager	0.2655	0.3078	27.7
4	Jason Heyward	0.2744	0.2302	27.3
5	Trea Turner	0.2584	0.3420	26.5
6	Paulo Orlando	0.2458	0.3020	26.3
7	Joey Votto	0.2857	0.3255	25.7
8	Dustin Pedroia	0.2792	0.3175	25.4

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.2262	0.2535	0.2670	27.1	7.6	19.5
2	Troy Tulowitzki	0.2941	0.2586	0.2541	20.8	3.3	17.5
3	José Ramírez	0.2426	0.2619	0.3115	43.7	29.7	14.1
4	Mookie Betts	0.2832	0.2977	0.3185	27.1	14.0	13.1
5	Corey Dickerson	0.2882	0.2610	0.2451	22.6	9.6	13.0
6	Ryan Schimpf	0.2589	0.2117	0.2174	13.1	1.4	11.7
7	Mark Reynolds	0.2244	0.2454	0.2824	26.4	15.6	10.7
8	Javier Báez	0.2289	0.2485	0.2732	20.7	10.4	10.3
9	Daniel Murphy	0.2805	0.2945	0.3465	39.5	29.3	10.2
10	Jonathan Schoop	0.2449	0.2561	0.2667	15.3	5.8	9.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Travis Shaw	0.2630	0.2507	0.2417	11.9	5.6	6.2
2	Jayson Werth	0.2650	0.2545	0.2438	13.5	7.5	6.0
3	Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.2407	0.2495	0.2802	21.8	16.5	5.3
4	Alex Bregman	0.2184	0.2409	0.2637	9.6	4.6	5.0
5	Nelson Cruz	0.2520	0.2584	0.2869	22.6	17.9	4.7
6	Odúbel Herrera	0.2657	0.2715	0.2864	12.9	8.8	4.2
7	Jonathan Schoop	0.2504	0.2561	0.2667	9.9	5.8	4.0
8	Yoenis Cespedes	0.2562	0.2629	0.2797	12.2	8.3	4.0
9	Ryan Raburn	0.2734	0.2584	0.2197	14.0	10.3	3.7
10	Ian Kinsler	0.2679	0.2727	0.2880	12.9	9.3	3.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Justin Turner	0.2945	0.2838	0.2752	13.2	6.4	6.8
2	Chris Davis	0.2654	0.2556	0.2208	30.9	24.2	6.7
3	Tyler Naquin	0.2289	0.2446	0.2960	23.8	18.2	5.6
4	Chris Carter	0.2368	0.2285	0.2222	10.6	5.1	5.5
5	Daniel Murphy	0.2850	0.2945	0.3465	34.7	29.3	5.4
6	Colby Rasmus	0.2439	0.2319	0.2060	16.6	11.5	5.1
7	Chris Heisey	0.2589	0.2325	0.2158	7.0	2.8	4.1
8	Tyler Goeddel	0.2589	0.2417	0.1925	16.0	11.9	4.1
9	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.2468	0.2535	0.2670	11.6	7.6	4.0
10	Adalberto Mondesi	0.2589	0.2327	0.1852	11.3	7.3	3.9

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Ben Revere	0.2601	0.3318 (29.6)	0.3322 (27.6)	0.3325 (29.5)	0.3310 (29.4)
Josh Donaldson	0.4040	0.3513 (32.0)	0.3581 (31.1)	0.3497 (33.6)	0.3529 (30.6)
Derek Norris	0.2555	0.3151 (30.6)	0.3264 (33.2)	0.3119 (28.7)	0.3184 (32.3)
Jonathan Villar	0.3694	0.3017 (41.2)	0.3017 (45.0)	0.3007 (42.4)	0.3027 (40.2)
Andrew McCutchen	0.3363	0.3931 (43.1)	0.3927 (39.1)	0.3945 (43.5)	0.3917 (42.5)
Jose Altuve	0.3964	0.3483 (29.4)	0.3467 (34.5)	0.3503 (28.6)	0.3464 (30.5)
Wilson Ramos	0.3537	0.2867 (31.3)	0.2869 (34.2)	0.2903 (29.9)	0.2832 (33.0)
Jean Segura	0.3681	0.3017 (41.1)	0.2989 (47.0)	0.3033 (40.6)	0.3002 (41.9)
Brandon Belt	0.3939	0.3401 (30.6)	0.3433 (32.2)	0.3400 (31.2)	0.3402 (30.2)
DJ LeMahieu	0.4163	0.3370 (45.8)	0.3327 (52.1)	0.3390 (45.1)	0.3350 (46.8)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryce Harper	0.4212	0.3732	34.6
2	Jason Heyward	0.3545	0.3063	32.8
3	Corey Seager	0.3114	0.3654	32.2
4	Aledmys Díaz	0.2936	0.3690	31.4
5	Prince Fielder	0.3632	0.2919	29.0
6	Justin Upton	0.3486	0.3099	28.7
7	Gerardo Parra	0.3374	0.2711	28.0
8	César Hernández	0.3196	0.3712	27.7
9	Ryan Zimmerman	0.3239	0.2719	27.6
10	Daniel Murphy	0.3358	0.3900	27.4

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Daniel Murphy	0.3226	0.3900	38.4
2	José Ramírez	0.3039	0.3630	35.6
3	Mike Trout	0.3904	0.4405	33.1
4	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.2987	0.3491	31.1
5	Adam Lind	0.3542	0.2860	29.9
6	Nolan Arenado	0.3193	0.3621	28.8
7	Charlie Blackmon	0.3356	0.3809	28.1
8	Yan Gomes	0.3056	0.2008	28.1
9	César Hernández	0.3258	0.3712	27.3
10	Cameron Maybin	0.3141	0.3830	26.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jason Heyward	0.3566	0.3063	33.5
2	Corey Seager	0.3118	0.3654	32.5
3	Prince Fielder	0.3716	0.2919	31.8
4	César Hernández	0.3166	0.3712	30.0
5	Aledmys Díaz	0.2976	0.3690	30.0
6	Ryan Zimmerman	0.3286	0.2719	29.4
7	Justin Upton	0.3493	0.3099	28.6
8	Gerardo Parra	0.3397	0.2711	28.5
9	Bryce Harper	0.4116	0.3732	28.0
10	Odúbel Herrera	0.3134	0.3609	27.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryce Harper	0.4308	0.3732	40.8
2	Daniel Murphy	0.3251	0.3900	33.4
3	Aledmys Díaz	0.2896	0.3690	33.1
4	Corey Seager	0.3110	0.3654	32.2
5	Jason Heyward	0.3524	0.3063	31.7
6	Tyler Naquin	0.2850	0.3719	29.0
7	Justin Upton	0.3479	0.3099	28.5
8	Yan Gomes	0.2977	0.2008	27.6
9	David Ortiz	0.3498	0.4010	27.3
10	Gerardo Parra	0.3351	0.2711	27.2

Most Unique Misses for On-Base Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.2987	0.3245	0.3491	31.1	11.1	20.0
2	Mookie Betts	0.3399	0.3570	0.3630	15.8	0.8	15.0
3	Troy Tulowitzki	0.3647	0.3324	0.3180	26.2	11.7	14.5
4	Mike Trout	0.3904	0.4052	0.4405	33.1	19.2	13.9
5	Mark Reynolds	0.3068	0.3304	0.3560	21.0	8.1	12.9
6	Corey Dickerson	0.3370	0.3103	0.2925	25.2	13.6	11.5
7	Hanley Ramirez	0.3384	0.3513	0.3613	13.3	1.8	11.5
8	Daniel Murphy	0.3226	0.3358	0.3900	38.4	27.4	10.9
9	Nolan Arenado	0.3193	0.3293	0.3621	28.8	17.9	10.9
10	José Ramírez	0.3039	0.3155	0.3630	35.6	25.0	10.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Alex Bregman	0.2596	0.2835	0.3134	10.3	4.9	5.4
2	Travis Shaw	0.3261	0.3155	0.3057	14.2	9.0	5.2
3	Jayson Werth	0.3490	0.3400	0.3350	12.3	7.4	5.0
4	Hanley Ramirez	0.3443	0.3513	0.3613	6.7	1.8	4.9
5	Adam Eaton	0.3414	0.3467	0.3619	10.0	5.8	4.3
6	Odúbel Herrera	0.3134	0.3186	0.3609	27.0	23.1	4.0
7	Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.3029	0.3090	0.3363	15.4	11.5	3.9
8	Nelson Cruz	0.3177	0.3227	0.3598	23.9	20.0	3.9
9	Joey Votto	0.4188	0.4237	0.4343	6.2	2.3	3.9
10	Nick Buss	0.3258	0.2823	0.2472	7.6	3.8	3.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Adalberto Mondesi	0.3258	0.2640	0.2308	15.3	6.0	9.3
2	Tyler Goeddel	0.3258	0.2932	0.2575	17.7	10.0	7.7
3	Justin Turner	0.3576	0.3477	0.3392	16.1	9.7	6.4
4	Bryce Harper	0.4308	0.4212	0.3732	40.8	34.6	6.3
5	Daniel Murphy	0.3251	0.3358	0.3900	33.4	27.4	6.0
6	Chris Carter	0.3327	0.3240	0.3214	12.1	6.2	5.8
7	Colby Rasmus	0.3158	0.3026	0.2861	15.5	9.9	5.7
8	Tyler Naquin	0.2850	0.3009	0.3719	29.0	23.3	5.7
9	Adonis García	0.2786	0.2880	0.3114	14.2	9.2	5.1
10	Manny Machado	0.3589	0.3524	0.3434	16.0	11.2	4.9

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Brian Dozier	0.5463	0.4212 (73.9)	0.4252 (76.5)	0.4050 (84.7)	0.4373 (63.7)
Freddie Freeman	0.5688	0.4726 (54.0)	0.4622 (66.6)	0.4766 (50.8)	0.4686 (57.7)
Bryce Harper	0.4407	0.5768 (96.8)	0.5213 (57.0)	0.5619 (87.8)	0.5920 (105.5)
Daniel Murphy	0.5951	0.4277 (86.8)	0.4187 (96.6)	0.4325 (83.6)	0.4230 (90.3)
Jose Altuve	0.5312	0.4312 (58.6)	0.4293 (65.6)	0.4307 (58.5)	0.4317 (59.3)
Jason Heyward	0.3245	0.4375 (77.7)	0.4141 (59.2)	0.4422 (80.8)	0.4328 (74.1)
Charlie Blackmon	0.5519	0.4350 (63.2)	0.4400 (65.1)	0.4319 (64.8)	0.4381 (62.1)
Jean Segura	0.4992	0.3674 (78.8)	0.3640 (86.6)	0.3735 (74.2)	0.3613 (84.0)
Trea Turner	0.5668	0.3864 (52.5)	0.3913 (53.5)	0.3952 (49.5)	0.3775 (55.8)
DJ LeMahieu	0.4946	0.3832 (59.1)	0.3726 (70.9)	0.3840 (58.2)	0.3824 (60.5)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Davis	0.5295	0.4594	58.8
2	David Ortiz	0.5103	0.6201	57.3
3	Andrew McCutchen	0.4936	0.4298	55.4
4	Robinson Canó	0.4408	0.5328	52.7
5	Jake Lamb	0.4016	0.5086	52.7
6	Ramón Flores	0.4191	0.2610	51.0
7	Aledmys Díaz	0.3826	0.5099	50.2
8	Mark Teixeira	0.4556	0.3618	49.1
9	Tyler Naquin	0.3613	0.5140	49.1
10	Prince Fielder	0.4480	0.3344	48.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.3720	0.4857	65.7
2	Jake Lamb	0.3910	0.5086	63.7
3	Mark Trumbo	0.4323	0.5334	60.6
4	Gary Sánchez	0.3904	0.6567	58.6
5	Kris Bryant	0.4607	0.5539	57.9
6	José Ramírez	0.3612	0.4619	55.8
7	Yasmany Tomás	0.3995	0.5075	55.0
8	Trevor Story	0.4250	0.5672	54.7
9	David Ortiz	0.5253	0.6201	52.8
10	Evan Longoria	0.4349	0.5213	52.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	David Ortiz	0.4976	0.6201	64.9
2	Prince Fielder	0.4736	0.3344	58.5
3	Andrew McCutchen	0.4945	0.4298	56.4
4	Trevor Story	0.4217	0.5672	52.6
5	Robinson Canó	0.4425	0.5328	51.1
6	Ramón Flores	0.4178	0.2610	50.8
7	Aledmys Díaz	0.3823	0.5099	50.0
8	Corey Seager	0.4212	0.5120	49.4
9	Jonathan Villar	0.3652	0.4567	49.3
10	Giancarlo Stanton	0.5744	0.4891	49.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Davis	0.5558	0.4594	75.4
2	Jake Lamb	0.3903	0.5086	60.2
3	Khris Davis	0.4150	0.5243	56.3
4	Robinson Canó	0.4391	0.5328	54.9
5	Tyler Naquin	0.3488	0.5140	54.1
6	Andrew McCutchen	0.4927	0.4298	53.9
7	Mark Teixeira	0.4636	0.3618	52.0
8	Colby Rasmus	0.4610	0.3550	51.2
9	Ramón Flores	0.4204	0.2610	50.9
10	Aledmys Díaz	0.3828	0.5099	50.7

Most Unique Misses for Slugging Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Adam Duvall	0.4054	0.4604	0.4982	50.1	11.8	38.2
2	Mark Trumbo	0.4323	0.4748	0.5334	60.6	27.0	33.6
3	Manny Machado	0.4567	0.4909	0.5328	45.8	16.4	29.3
4	Kris Bryant	0.4607	0.4941	0.5539	57.9	29.0	28.9
5	Jackie Bradley Jr.	0.3720	0.4082	0.4857	65.7	37.7	28.0
6	Adonis García	0.4457	0.3888	0.4060	28.2	0.6	27.6
7	Xander Bogaerts	0.3964	0.4262	0.4463	28.4	1.3	27.1
8	Chris Carter	0.4481	0.4805	0.4991	26.1	0.2	25.9
9	Wil Myers	0.4048	0.4349	0.4608	30.8	5.2	25.6
10	Troy Tulowitzki	0.4910	0.4390	0.4431	31.7	7.7	24.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chris Carter	0.4554	0.4805	0.4991	16.0	0.2	15.8
2	J.D. Martinez	0.4832	0.5089	0.5348	16.9	3.9	13.0
3	Justin Turner	0.4186	0.4390	0.4928	34.4	22.1	12.4
4	Yoenis Cespedes	0.4557	0.4771	0.5303	30.2	19.0	11.3
5	Brian Dozier	0.4050	0.4212	0.5463	84.7	73.9	10.8
6	Travis Shaw	0.4299	0.4113	0.4208	14.8	4.6	10.1
7	Prince Fielder	0.4736	0.4480	0.3344	58.5	48.8	9.7
8	Odúbel Herrera	0.3638	0.3779	0.4202	24.6	15.8	8.9
9	Brandon Crawford	0.3792	0.3937	0.4304	20.1	11.5	8.7
10	Corey Seager	0.4212	0.4342	0.5120	49.4	40.9	8.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chris Davis	0.5558	0.5295	0.4594	75.4	58.8	16.6
2	Chris Carter	0.5057	0.4805	0.4991	15.2	0.2	15.0
3	Tyler Goeddel	0.4250	0.3701	0.2911	35.3	22.8	12.5
4	Adalberto Mondesi	0.4250	0.3468	0.2815	23.9	12.4	11.5
5	Matt Kemp	0.4211	0.4366	0.4992	41.1	29.8	11.3
6	Colby Rasmus	0.4610	0.4344	0.3550	51.2	40.7	10.5
7	Khris Davis	0.4150	0.4307	0.5243	56.3	45.9	10.4
8	Nomar Mazara	0.4253	0.4073	0.4186	13.4	4.0	9.4
9	Pedro Álvarez	0.4543	0.4776	0.5045	12.5	3.2	9.2
10	Carlos Correa	0.4920	0.4771	0.4506	38.5	29.5	9.0

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Andrew Heaney	25	696 (670.9)	488 (463.0)	628 (602.9)	764 (739.0)
Kyle Lohse	48	655 (607.2)	609 (561.0)	707 (659.3)	603 (555.0)
Garrett Richards	148	798 (649.8)	732 (584.0)	826 (677.6)	770 (622.0)
Tyson Ross	27	779 (752.1)	727 (700.0)	793 (766.1)	765 (738.0)
John Danks	100	679 (579.0)	722 (622.0)	622 (522.1)	736 (636.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Heston	554	29	524.8
2	Taylor Jungmann	641	126	515.5
3	Charlie Morton	585	71	514.5
4	Phil Hughes	768	259	508.8
5	Chris Bassitt	604	133	471.3
6	Homer Bailey	564	111	453.4
7	Alex Wood	694	255	438.7
8	Rubby De La Rosa	656	222	434.2
9	Jerome Williams	502	81	421.2
10	Kris Medlen	536	119	417.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kenta Maeda	100	716	616.0
2	Chris Heston	627	29	598.0
3	Brett Anderson	639	62	577.0
4	Drew Hutchison	669	104	565.0
5	Luis Perdomo	100	662	562.0
6	Michael Fulmer	100	647	547.0
7	Roenis Elías	564	41	523.0
8	Charlie Morton	593	71	522.0
9	Marcus Stroman	337	855	518.0
10	Dan Straily	283	792	509.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Michael Fulmer	40	647	607.1
2	Zach Davies	80	682	601.7
3	Phil Hughes	835	259	575.6
4	Christian Friedrich	4	567	562.6
5	Miguel González	4	566	561.7
6	Luis Perdomo	111	662	551.4
7	Chris Bassitt	660	133	526.6
8	Dan Straily	281	792	511.5
9	Charlie Morton	558	71	486.9
10	Kris Medlen	595	119	476.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adrian Sampson	686	21	665.0
2	Chris Heston	662	29	633.0
3	Ryan Merritt	666	37	629.0
4	Adam Plutko	633	18	615.0
5	Roenis Elías	654	41	613.0
6	Henry Owens	714	103	611.0
7	Shawn Morimando	633	27	606.0
8	Scott Diamond	612	7	605.0
9	Taylor Jungmann	709	126	583.0
10	Tyler Wagner	620	40	580.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Kenta Maeda	100	730	716	616.0	14.0	602.0
2	Adam Wainwright	372	726	847	475.0	120.6	354.4
3	Brett Anderson	639	295	62	577.0	233.5	343.5
4	Yohan Flande	358	4	20	338.0	15.6	322.4
5	Marcus Stroman	337	626	855	518.0	229.4	288.6
6	Jerad Eickhoff	360	639	811	451.0	171.6	279.4
7	José Fernández	411	673	737	326.0	63.5	262.5
8	Roberto Hernandez	459	201	39	420.0	161.7	258.3
9	Blake Snell	100	450	401	301.0	49.4	251.6
10	Drew Hutchison	669	428	104	565.0	323.8	241.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Miguel González	4	315	566	561.7	251.3	310.3
2	Chad Kuhl	4	304	301	296.6	3.2	293.4
3	Braden Shipley	4	297	306	301.6	8.8	292.8
4	Zach Davies	80	347	682	601.7	334.8	266.8
5	Zach Eflin	4	280	272	267.6	8.2	259.5
6	José Ureña	79	337	373	294.2	36.1	258.1
7	Chris Devenski	4	254	408	403.7	153.8	249.8
8	Michael Fulmer	40	277	647	607.1	370.1	237.1
9	Zach Neal	4	339	281	276.7	57.7	219.0
10	Seth Lugo	40	256	260	220.3	3.6	216.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Josh A. Smith	697	351	260	437.0	90.7	346.3
2	Adrian Sampson	686	345	21	665.0	324.1	340.9
3	Zach Neal	673	339	281	392.0	57.7	334.3
4	Adam Plutko	633	319	18	615.0	300.6	314.4
5	Pat Dean	667	355	300	367.0	54.8	312.2
6	Ryan Merritt	666	354	37	629.0	316.9	312.1
7	Taylor Rogers	648	344	264	384.0	80.2	303.8
8	Scott Diamond	612	308	7	605.0	301.2	303.8
9	Steven Brault	609	307	166	443.0	140.7	302.3
10	Gabriel Ynoa	640	340	88	552.0	252.0	300.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kyle Hendricks	0.2544	0.2745 (41.3)	0.2920 (37.3)	0.2773 (43.8)	0.2717 (38.4)
Justin Verlander	0.2712	0.2788 (38.7)	0.3044 (41.1)	0.2827 (42.8)	0.2748 (34.1)
Rick Porcello	0.2738	0.2835 (40.1)	0.3174 (49.8)	0.2826 (39.8)	0.2844 (39.9)
Tim Lincecum	0.4729	0.2960 (28.3)	0.3184 (28.4)	0.3056 (26.3)	0.2864 (30.5)
Chris Devenski	0.2415	0.3182 (45.7)	0.3181 (36.3)	0.3031 (39.8)	0.3332 (51.4)
Michael Fulmer	0.2839	0.3052 (36.7)	0.3181 (30.2)	0.2981 (32.4)	0.3124 (40.6)
James Shields	0.3767	0.2768 (53.1)	0.3139 (41.4)	0.2821 (48.3)	0.2715 (58.3)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.2952	0.2763	42.9
2	Rich Hill	0.2918	0.2409	37.8
3	Marco Estrada	0.2925	0.2795	35.0
4	Tanner Roark	0.2835	0.2804	32.8
5	Steven Wright	0.3025	0.2891	32.0
6	Patrick Corbin	0.2739	0.3519	29.9
7	Adam Wainwright	0.2634	0.3339	29.8
8	Matt Bush	0.3181	0.2310	29.7
9	Clayton Kershaw	0.2214	0.2033	29.1
10	Alfredo Simon	0.3025	0.4314	27.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adam Wainwright	0.2762	0.3339	38.4
2	Chris Young	0.2952	0.3942	35.2
3	Jered Weaver	0.3078	0.3646	34.1
4	Kenta Maeda	0.3181	0.2846	32.8
5	Seunghwan Oh	0.3181	0.2261	32.7
6	Tyler Duffey	0.3034	0.3696	32.1
7	Sonny Gray	0.2743	0.3482	31.8
8	Jon Lester	0.2894	0.2628	31.0
9	Alfredo Simon	0.3190	0.4314	29.8
10	Jaime García	0.2801	0.3326	29.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.3042	0.2763	50.4
2	Marco Estrada	0.3014	0.2795	41.7
3	Tanner Roark	0.2923	0.2804	40.9
4	Rich Hill	0.2876	0.2409	36.2
5	Steven Wright	0.3047	0.2891	33.8
6	Clayton Kershaw	0.2257	0.2033	31.7
7	Patrick Corbin	0.2725	0.3519	30.5
8	Matt Bush	0.3181	0.2310	29.9
9	Julio Teheran	0.2828	0.2803	29.1
10	Alfredo Simon	0.2988	0.4314	28.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Rich Hill	0.2959	0.2409	39.2
2	Adam Wainwright	0.2550	0.3339	37.9
3	Aaron Sanchez	0.2862	0.2763	34.9
4	Steven Wright	0.3002	0.2891	29.7
5	Patrick Corbin	0.2753	0.3519	29.7
6	Matt Bush	0.3181	0.2310	29.5
7	Dan Straily	0.3095	0.3068	29.3
8	Chris Young	0.2888	0.3942	28.9
9	Jonathon Niese	0.2855	0.3722	28.7
10	Sonny Gray	0.2587	0.3482	28.6

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Kenta Maeda	0.3181	0.2667	0.2846	32.8	12.5	20.4
2	Mike Foltynewicz	0.3453	0.2961	0.3237	17.9	4.1	13.8
3	Adam Morgan	0.3170	0.3204	0.3688	20.0	6.6	13.4
4	A.J. Griffin	0.3000	0.3026	0.3540	21.2	8.2	13.0
5	Jeff Samardzija	0.3097	0.2630	0.3030	15.8	3.9	12.0
6	Tyler Wilson	0.3099	0.3128	0.3485	10.9	0.2	10.7
7	Luis Perdomo	0.3181	0.3109	0.3628	21.4	11.0	10.4
8	R.A. Dickey	0.3068	0.2980	0.3376	13.4	3.1	10.3
9	Jered Weaver	0.3078	0.2976	0.3646	34.1	24.3	9.8
10	Rick Porcello	0.3174	0.2835	0.2738	49.8	40.1	9.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tony Barnette	0.3181	0.2855	0.2811	17.9	9.8	8.2
2	Tanner Roark	0.2923	0.2835	0.2804	40.9	32.8	8.1
3	Aaron Sanchez	0.3042	0.2952	0.2763	50.4	42.9	7.5
4	Marco Estrada	0.3014	0.2925	0.2795	41.7	35.0	6.8
5	Johnny Cueto	0.2606	0.2535	0.2744	19.4	12.7	6.7
6	Luis Perdomo	0.3017	0.3109	0.3628	16.7	11.0	5.7
7	Jake Arrieta	0.2516	0.2452	0.2609	21.1	15.6	5.5
8	Zach Davies	0.2973	0.2898	0.3120	14.4	9.0	5.5
9	Pat Dean	0.2937	0.3097	0.3863	17.0	12.4	4.6
10	Chris Tillman	0.3019	0.2959	0.3167	15.0	10.4	4.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Dan Straily	0.3095	0.2895	0.3068	29.3	14.3	15.0
2	Jhoulys Chacín	0.3181	0.2946	0.3225	18.9	4.7	14.2
3	Junior Guerra	0.2970	0.2785	0.2768	26.8	18.2	8.6
4	Ian Kennedy	0.3058	0.2942	0.3125	22.4	13.9	8.5
5	Adam Wainwright	0.2550	0.2634	0.3339	37.9	29.8	8.1
6	Matt Moore	0.3011	0.2907	0.3030	27.1	19.3	7.8
7	Mike Leake	0.2745	0.2824	0.3211	9.4	2.6	6.8
8	Jerad Eickhoff	0.3060	0.2965	0.3119	23.0	16.2	6.8
9	CC Sabathia	0.3097	0.3001	0.3103	25.8	19.3	6.5
10	Sonny Gray	0.2587	0.2695	0.3482	28.6	22.4	6.2

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kyle Barraclough	0.3693	0.2462 (35.3)	0.2215 (44.2)	0.2485 (34.9)	0.2439 (36.2)
David Phelps	0.3239	0.1937 (43.2)	0.1835 (48.3)	0.2062 (39.0)	0.1812 (47.7)
Justin Verlander	0.2813	0.1976 (68.7)	0.2029 (67.8)	0.1947 (72.1)	0.2006 (66.5)
Michael Pineda	0.2738	0.2173 (37.0)	0.2188 (39.1)	0.2197 (35.8)	0.2150 (39.1)
Robbie Ray	0.2809	0.2205 (41.0)	0.2051 (56.3)	0.2273 (36.4)	0.2138 (46.7)
Tyler Thornburg	0.3422	0.2060 (33.8)	0.2040 (35.5)	0.2030 (34.8)	0.2091 (33.2)
Edwin Díaz	0.4055	0.1834 (46.6)	0.2113 (41.4)	0.1808 (47.3)	0.1860 (46.1)
Michael Feliz	0.3519	0.1946 (40.4)	0.2031 (39.3)	0.2137 (35.5)	0.1756 (45.7)
José Fernández	0.3433	0.2835 (38.5)	0.2628 (56.9)	0.2862 (37.1)	0.2808 (40.9)
Juan Nicasio	0.2690	0.1933 (34.9)	0.1949 (36.3)	0.1943 (34.8)	0.1924 (35.7)
James Shields	0.1642	0.2213 (53.1)	0.2190 (47.7)	0.2135 (46.1)	0.2291 (59.1)
Brad Hand	0.3049	0.1813 (42.2)	0.1718 (47.3)	0.1949 (37.6)	0.1677 (47.4)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Sale	0.3004	0.2569	46.4
2	Martín Pérez	0.1602	0.1205	40.4
3	Junior Guerra	0.2739	0.2033	38.5
4	Danny Duffy	0.1979	0.2572	37.8
5	Félix Hernández	0.2344	0.1863	36.5
6	Chris Devenski	0.1589	0.2549	36.1
7	Jon Gray	0.2029	0.2598	35.1
8	Yordano Ventura	0.2119	0.1765	35.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Danny Duffy	0.1869	0.2572	49.0
2	Martín Pérez	0.1722	0.1205	47.0
3	Félix Hernández	0.2423	0.1863	38.8
4	Josh Tomlin	0.2108	0.1628	37.2
5	Luis Perdomo	0.2113	0.1586	37.0
6	Andrew Miller	0.3123	0.4473	36.2
7	Seunghwan Oh	0.2113	0.3291	35.8
8	Jon Gray	0.2079	0.2598	34.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Martín Pérez	0.1712	0.1205	49.2
2	Chris Sale	0.3015	0.2569	46.6
3	Junior Guerra	0.2873	0.2033	44.7
4	Chris Devenski	0.1611	0.2549	35.5
5	Marco Estrada	0.1740	0.2282	34.3
6	Brandon Finnegan	0.2372	0.1975	34.1
7	Dan Straily	0.2396	0.2045	33.2
8	Mike Fiers	0.2212	0.1851	31.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Danny Duffy	0.1832	0.2572	49.0
2	Jon Gray	0.1888	0.2598	45.6
3	Chris Sale	0.2994	0.2569	44.9
4	Félix Hernández	0.2449	0.1863	43.0
5	Yordano Ventura	0.2164	0.1765	38.3
6	Chris Devenski	0.1567	0.2549	37.2
7	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.2072	0.1758	32.1
8	Rich Hill	0.2143	0.2938	31.8

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Luis Perdomo	0.2113	0.1652	0.1586	37.0	9.4	27.7
2	Vince Velasquez	0.2218	0.2653	0.2759	28.0	1.7	26.3
3	Zach Neal	0.2113	0.1174	0.0961	33.3	8.1	25.2
4	Albert Suárez	0.2113	0.1442	0.1521	22.2	0.1	22.0
5	Noah Syndergaard	0.2456	0.2706	0.2930	32.8	11.0	21.8
6	Joel De La Cruz	0.2113	0.1224	0.1341	22.2	1.1	21.1
7	Kendall Graveman	0.1758	0.1450	0.1374	32.7	11.9	20.8
8	Zach Eflin	0.2113	0.1317	0.1140	27.4	6.9	20.5
9	Drew Pomeranz	0.2165	0.2405	0.2646	31.5	11.6	19.8
10	Andrew Miller	0.3123	0.3772	0.4473	36.2	17.2	19.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Dan Straily	0.2396	0.2231	0.2045	33.2	20.7	12.4
2	Collin McHugh	0.1903	0.2007	0.2224	20.1	11.2	8.9
3	Martín Pérez	0.1712	0.1602	0.1205	49.2	40.4	8.7
4	Kenley Jansen	0.3224	0.3509	0.4143	21.4	14.0	7.4
5	Andrew Miller	0.3515	0.3772	0.4473	24.5	17.2	7.3
6	Tyler Chatwood	0.1849	0.1736	0.1749	11.2	4.2	7.0
7	Junior Guerra	0.2873	0.2739	0.2033	44.7	38.5	6.2
8	Danny Salazar	0.2439	0.2528	0.2757	14.6	8.9	5.7
9	Patrick Corbin	0.2090	0.2001	0.1869	20.3	14.6	5.7
10	Edwin Jackson	0.1875	0.1716	0.1635	11.5	5.8	5.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Joel De La Cruz	0.2113	0.1224	0.1341	23.3	1.1	22.1
2	Jhoulys Chacín	0.2113	0.1701	0.1883	19.0	6.7	12.3
3	Tim Adleman	0.2113	0.1697	0.1638	15.7	3.9	11.8
4	Danny Duffy	0.1832	0.1979	0.2572	49.0	37.8	11.1
5	Jon Gray	0.1888	0.2029	0.2598	45.6	35.1	10.4
6	Doug Fister	0.1632	0.1500	0.1476	17.7	7.7	9.9
7	Mike Montgomery	0.1574	0.1808	0.2222	23.9	14.0	9.9
8	Jeff Samardzija	0.2195	0.2080	0.2014	20.8	11.7	9.2
9	Jameson Taillon	0.1414	0.1623	0.2033	22.9	14.0	8.9
10	Kevin Gausman	0.1898	0.1983	0.2299	25.0	18.1	6.9

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Danny Salazar	0.1079	0.0696 (19.0)	0.0720 (17.4)	0.0721 (17.7)	0.0671 (20.1)
Jerad Eickhoff	0.0518	0.0778 (25.8)	0.0722 (21.4)	0.0779 (25.6)	0.0776 (26.1)
Iván Nova	0.0409	0.0721 (25.3)	0.0776 (29.1)	0.0722 (25.1)	0.0720 (25.6)
Danny Duffy	0.0575	0.0824 (22.4)	0.0865 (25.6)	0.0786 (19.5)	0.0861 (25.6)
Félix Hernández	0.0992	0.0600 (21.9)	0.0633 (19.7)	0.0608 (21.6)	0.0591 (22.1)
Zach Davies	0.0557	0.0834 (22.8)	0.0838 (23.2)	0.0854 (24.0)	0.0814 (21.9)
Jake Arrieta	0.0956	0.0660 (19.0)	0.0668 (18.1)	0.0662 (19.0)	0.0657 (18.7)
Patrick Corbin	0.0942	0.0604 (19.6)	0.0621 (18.3)	0.0625 (18.4)	0.0583 (20.7)
Clayton Kershaw	0.0202	0.0497 (19.2)	0.0535 (21.3)	0.0508 (19.6)	0.0485 (18.9)
Mike Leake	0.0396	0.0587 (18.8)	0.0625 (21.8)	0.0591 (18.9)	0.0582 (18.9)
James Paxton	0.0470	0.0867 (23.3)	0.0882 (24.1)	0.0881 (23.8)	0.0854 (22.9)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.1104	0.0797	28.8
2	Sean Manaea	0.0944	0.0623	22.5
3	Mike Foltynewicz	0.1018	0.0667	21.5
4	Carlos Rodón	0.0995	0.0755	21.3
5	Tanner Roark	0.0562	0.0854	20.0
6	Jameson Taillon	0.0819	0.0407	19.7
7	Luis Perdomo	0.0927	0.0695	19.2
8	Rick Porcello	0.0513	0.0360	18.8
9	Rich Hill	0.1112	0.0752	18.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Rick Porcello	0.0571	0.0360	24.2
2	Carlos Rodón	0.1005	0.0755	22.1
3	Josh Tomlin	0.0514	0.0276	21.6
4	Jameson Taillon	0.0818	0.0407	19.7
5	Mike Fiers	0.0791	0.0580	19.6
6	Julio Teheran	0.0736	0.0541	19.3
7	Zach Neal	0.0818	0.0214	18.6
8	Tyler Duffey	0.0787	0.0537	18.5
9	Brandon Finnegan	0.0833	0.1144	18.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.1102	0.0797	28.3
2	Carlos Rodón	0.1077	0.0755	26.9
3	Sean Manaea	0.0966	0.0623	23.6
4	Luis Perdomo	0.0985	0.0695	22.8
5	Rick Porcello	0.0543	0.0360	21.2
6	Tanner Roark	0.0576	0.0854	19.1
7	Yovani Gallardo	0.0749	0.1160	18.7
8	Logan Verrett	0.0550	0.1059	18.5
9	Mike Foltynewicz	0.0947	0.0667	17.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.1106	0.0797	29.5
2	Mike Foltynewicz	0.1089	0.0667	25.6
3	Jameson Taillon	0.0888	0.0407	22.8
4	Sean Manaea	0.0922	0.0623	21.5
5	Rich Hill	0.1164	0.0752	20.9
6	Tanner Roark	0.0548	0.0854	20.7
7	Michael Pineda	0.0375	0.0701	19.8
8	James Shields	0.0709	0.0998	18.5
9	Derek Law	0.1220	0.0421	18.5

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Blake Snell	0.0818	0.1150	0.1272	15.8	2.6	13.3
2	Tyler Duffey	0.0787	0.0626	0.0537	18.5	8.8	9.7
3	Kyle Barraclough	0.1013	0.1438	0.1438	11.2	1.8	9.4
4	Mychal Givens	0.0710	0.0993	0.1150	11.9	3.1	8.8
5	Brandon Finnegan	0.0833	0.0953	0.1144	18.5	9.8	8.6
6	Zach Neal	0.0818	0.0540	0.0214	18.6	10.8	7.8
7	Hunter Cervenka	0.0818	0.1234	0.1538	12.0	4.5	7.5
8	Aaron Nola	0.0703	0.0549	0.0600	7.8	0.3	7.5
9	Matt Andriese	0.0707	0.0568	0.0474	15.4	8.0	7.4
10	Matt Wisler	0.0798	0.0697	0.0730	8.6	1.6	6.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Carlos Rodón	0.1077	0.0995	0.0755	26.9	21.3	5.6
2	Marcus Stroman	0.0654	0.0599	0.0632	6.6	2.2	4.4
3	Luis Perdomo	0.0985	0.0927	0.0695	22.8	19.2	3.6
4	Brad Hand	0.0770	0.0852	0.0989	6.0	2.9	3.1
5	Dan Straily	0.0668	0.0703	0.0922	15.8	12.7	3.1
6	Randall Delgado	0.0843	0.0929	0.1068	5.8	2.7	3.0
7	Tyler Chatwood	0.0731	0.0771	0.1046	17.5	14.5	2.9
8	Yovani Gallardo	0.0749	0.0795	0.1160	18.7	16.1	2.6
9	Drew Smyly	0.0740	0.0702	0.0664	9.6	7.1	2.5
10	Aaron Nola	0.0603	0.0549	0.0600	2.8	0.3	2.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hunter Cervenka	0.0818	0.1234	0.1538	12.0	4.5	7.5
2	Max Scherzer	0.0656	0.0590	0.0621	8.9	2.5	6.4
3	Lucas Harrell	0.0818	0.1104	0.1202	6.7	0.8	5.8
4	Brandon Finnegan	0.0870	0.0953	0.1144	15.5	9.8	5.7
5	Matt Moore	0.0990	0.0932	0.0859	16.3	10.9	5.3
6	José Ramírez	0.0818	0.1159	0.1259	5.4	0.6	4.8
7	Junior Guerra	0.1061	0.0975	0.0874	12.3	7.8	4.5
8	Trevor Bauer	0.1018	0.0971	0.0863	17.7	13.5	4.2
9	Mike Foltynewicz	0.1089	0.1018	0.0667	25.6	21.5	4.1
10	José A. Váldez	0.0818	0.1198	0.1600	7.2	3.4	3.7

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Ian Kennedy	0.0159	0.0087 (5.7)	0.0087 (5.5)	0.0089 (5.2)	0.0086 (6.2)
Rick Porcello	0.0146	0.0085 (5.3)	0.0086 (5.0)	0.0084 (5.0)	0.0087 (5.5)
Mike Montgomery	0.0242	0.0108 (5.5)	0.0087 (6.2)	0.0094 (5.9)	0.0121 (5.1)
Drew Pomeranz	0.0014	0.0084 (5.0)	0.0085 (5.3)	0.0075 (4.7)	0.0093 (5.3)
Félix Hernández	0.0153	0.0075 (5.0)	0.0081 (4.4)	0.0077 (4.6)	0.0072 (5.4)
Robbie Ross Jr.	0.0336	0.0119 (5.1)	0.0137 (4.6)	0.0111 (5.2)	0.0128 (5.0)
Jeff Samardzija	0.0012	0.0106 (7.9)	0.0115 (8.9)	0.0101 (7.9)	0.0110 (7.9)
Jered Weaver	0.0052	0.0112 (4.7)	0.0121 (5.6)	0.0102 (4.2)	0.0122 (5.2)
Tanner Roark	0.0152	0.0082 (5.9)	0.0082 (5.6)	0.0081 (5.6)	0.0083 (6.1)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jimmy Nelson	0.0142	0.0211	5.4
2	John Lackey	0.0050	0.0120	5.2
3	Mike Wright Jr.	0.0121	0.0274	5.0
4	Vince Velasquez	0.0107	0.0018	5.0
5	Francisco Liriano	0.0054	0.0123	5.0
6	Jon Gray	0.0098	0.0169	4.9
7	Gio Gonzalez	0.0053	0.0118	4.8
8	Héctor Santiago	0.0122	0.0064	4.7
9	Alfredo Simon	0.0112	0.0268	4.6
10	Chris Sale	0.0136	0.0187	4.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adam Conley	0.0083	0.0188	5.9
2	Jon Gray	0.0084	0.0169	5.7
3	Zack Greinke	0.0067	0.0000	4.7
4	John Lackey	0.0052	0.0120	4.7
5	Héctor Santiago	0.0118	0.0064	4.6
6	Michael Wacha	0.0087	0.0017	4.6
7	Francisco Liriano	0.0057	0.0123	4.5
8	Oliver Pérez	0.0138	0.0385	4.4
9	Alfredo Simon	0.0117	0.0268	4.4
10	Gio Gonzalez	0.0058	0.0118	4.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jimmy Nelson	0.0129	0.0211	6.2
2	Jon Gray	0.0083	0.0169	5.7
3	Mike Wright Jr.	0.0104	0.0274	5.4
4	Chris Sale	0.0123	0.0187	5.3
5	Adam Conley	0.0095	0.0188	5.1
6	Zack Greinke	0.0069	0.0000	5.0
7	Oliver Pérez	0.0110	0.0385	4.9
8	Drew Storen	0.0098	0.0307	4.6
9	Vince Velasquez	0.0097	0.0018	4.6
10	Alfredo Simon	0.0109	0.0268	4.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Lackey	0.0039	0.0120	6.3
2	Francisco Liriano	0.0042	0.0123	6.1
3	Gio Gonzalez	0.0043	0.0118	5.9
4	Bud Norris	0.0171	0.0061	5.4
5	Vince Velasquez	0.0118	0.0018	5.3
6	Héctor Santiago	0.0134	0.0064	5.3
7	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.0151	0.0000	5.2
8	Brandon Finnegan	0.0128	0.0054	5.2
9	Ross Stripling	0.0140	0.0024	4.7
10	Felipe Vázquez	0.0042	0.0183	4.7

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jerad Eickhoff	0.0056	0.0096	0.0099	3.1	0.0	3.1
2	Tyler Duffey	0.0052	0.0089	0.0101	2.6	0.6	2.0
3	Tyler Chatwood	0.0112	0.0088	0.0075	2.8	1.0	1.8
4	Mychal Givens	0.0059	0.0115	0.0192	4.0	2.3	1.7
5	Derek Holland	0.0104	0.0073	0.0043	3.0	1.4	1.6
6	Marcus Stroman	0.0089	0.0074	0.0047	4.0	2.4	1.6
7	Zach Davies	0.0060	0.0084	0.0088	1.6	0.2	1.4
8	Adam Conley	0.0083	0.0110	0.0188	5.9	4.5	1.4
9	Tony Barnette	0.0089	0.0147	0.0163	1.7	0.3	1.3
10	Adam Wainwright	0.0081	0.0068	0.0059	2.2	0.9	1.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.0099	0.0081	0.0063	3.3	1.5	1.8
2	Kenta Maeda	0.0066	0.0094	0.0112	2.9	1.2	1.7
3	Bartolo Colon	0.0060	0.0045	0.0038	2.2	0.7	1.5
4	Tony Barnette	0.0089	0.0147	0.0163	1.7	0.3	1.3
5	Yovani Gallardo	0.0055	0.0035	0.0019	2.2	0.9	1.3
6	Fernando Rodney	0.0106	0.0195	0.0177	1.8	0.6	1.3
7	Drew Smyly	0.0064	0.0052	0.0027	3.1	1.9	1.2
8	Jared Hughes	0.0122	0.0170	0.0195	1.7	0.6	1.1
9	Blaine Boyer	0.0067	0.0034	0.0035	1.1	0.0	1.0
10	Dallas Keuchel	0.0067	0.0057	0.0029	3.1	2.1	1.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Fernando Rodney	0.0283	0.0195	0.0177	2.9	0.6	2.4
2	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0016	0.0035	0.0060	3.8	2.0	1.9
3	Iván Nova	0.0185	0.0155	0.0132	3.5	1.7	1.8
4	Luis Perdomo	0.0152	0.0121	0.0106	2.9	1.1	1.8
5	Michael Pineda	0.0039	0.0056	0.0079	3.2	1.7	1.5
6	Brandon Finnegan	0.0128	0.0104	0.0054	5.2	3.7	1.5
7	Jaime García	0.0051	0.0067	0.0094	3.4	1.9	1.5
8	Bud Norris	0.0171	0.0139	0.0061	5.4	4.0	1.4
9	Ross Stripling	0.0140	0.0103	0.0024	4.7	3.4	1.4
10	J.A. Happ	0.0034	0.0046	0.0075	3.5	2.2	1.3

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Noah Syndergaard	0.0229	0.0356 (15.1)	0.0435 (20.7)	0.0350 (14.7)	0.0362 (15.5)
Chris Archer	0.0548	0.0308 (14.0)	0.0308 (14.4)	0.0326 (12.4)	0.0289 (15.7)
Jonathon Niese	0.0613	0.0257 (15.3)	0.0322 (12.0)	0.0270 (14.5)	0.0243 (16.1)
Miguel González	0.0256	0.0483 (17.2)	0.0462 (15.7)	0.0478 (16.9)	0.0487 (17.3)
Chris Devenski	0.0142	0.0484 (17.1)	0.0434 (14.8)	0.0418 (14.4)	0.0550 (19.6)
Steven Wright	0.0259	0.0399 (14.2)	0.0413 (14.8)	0.0391 (13.7)	0.0408 (14.6)
Aníbal Sánchez	0.0632	0.0376 (12.0)	0.0385 (11.6)	0.0383 (11.5)	0.0369 (12.6)
James Shields	0.0670	0.0360 (19.3)	0.0417 (14.9)	0.0370 (18.4)	0.0349 (20.3)
Francisco Liriano	0.0554	0.0271 (15.2)	0.0306 (12.9)	0.0261 (15.9)	0.0280 (14.6)
Chris Young	0.1045	0.0455 (20.8)	0.0421 (22.4)	0.0499 (19.1)	0.0412 (22.7)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Max Scherzer	0.0327	0.0558	13.9
2	Rich Hill	0.0354	0.0149	12.4
3	Jaime García	0.0257	0.0493	11.9
4	Masahiro Tanaka	0.0435	0.0366	11.7
5	Trevor Bauer	0.0415	0.0355	11.0
6	Erik Johnson	0.0437	0.1228	10.4
7	Jeurys Familia	0.0296	0.0049	10.4
8	Junior Guerra	0.0423	0.0289	10.4
9	Tanner Roark	0.0329	0.0285	10.3
10	Blake Snell	0.0375	0.0198	10.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Johnny Cueto	0.0349	0.0238	16.1
2	Nathan Eovaldi	0.0234	0.0594	15.1
3	A.J. Griffin	0.0444	0.0802	14.6
4	Masahiro Tanaka	0.0458	0.0366	13.2
5	Brett Oberholtzer	0.0297	0.0759	12.5
6	Blake Snell	0.0434	0.0198	12.3
7	Jaime García	0.0261	0.0493	11.9
8	Tanner Roark	0.0351	0.0285	11.8
9	Danny Duffy	0.0315	0.0547	11.7
10	Kyle Barraclough	0.0377	0.0068	11.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jaime García	0.0242	0.0493	13.0
2	Tanner Roark	0.0360	0.0285	13.0
3	Rich Hill	0.0345	0.0149	12.0
4	A.J. Griffin	0.0503	0.0802	11.3
5	Brandon Finnegan	0.0352	0.0579	11.1
6	Johnny Cueto	0.0287	0.0238	11.0
7	Trevor Bauer	0.0414	0.0355	11.0
8	Taijuan Walker	0.0398	0.0660	10.6
9	Drew Smyly	0.0398	0.0615	10.4
10	Steve Geltz	0.0401	0.1392	10.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Max Scherzer	0.0269	0.0558	19.4
2	Junior Guerra	0.0518	0.0289	14.9
3	Masahiro Tanaka	0.0466	0.0366	14.0
4	Rich Hill	0.0363	0.0149	12.7
5	Jhoulys Chacín	0.0434	0.0309	12.6
6	CC Sabathia	0.0493	0.0406	12.3
7	Héctor Santiago	0.0362	0.0592	12.2
8	Michael Fulmer	0.0453	0.0345	11.8
9	Jeurys Familia	0.0332	0.0049	11.5
10	Justin Verlander	0.0313	0.0514	11.4

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Johnny Cueto	0.0349	0.0257	0.0238	16.1	8.4	7.7
2	Dan Straily	0.0402	0.0485	0.0568	7.4	0.5	7.0
3	Nathan Eovaldi	0.0234	0.0345	0.0594	15.1	9.1	6.1
4	A.J. Griffin	0.0444	0.0550	0.0802	14.6	8.9	5.6
5	Noah Syndergaard	0.0435	0.0356	0.0229	20.7	15.1	5.5
6	Carlos Rodón	0.0322	0.0393	0.0472	5.6	0.2	5.4
7	Kenta Maeda	0.0434	0.0323	0.0418	6.3	1.3	5.0
8	Mike Leake	0.0358	0.0288	0.0336	7.1	2.1	5.0
9	Kendall Graveman	0.0383	0.0319	0.0353	8.0	3.3	4.7
10	Justin Verlander	0.0319	0.0357	0.0514	11.1	7.3	3.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ian Kennedy	0.0419	0.0469	0.0595	8.1	4.1	4.1
2	Dan Straily	0.0437	0.0485	0.0568	4.3	0.5	3.8
3	Jose Quintana	0.0352	0.0313	0.0365	5.2	2.0	3.2
4	Adam Conley	0.0339	0.0290	0.0336	4.6	1.8	2.9
5	Johnny Cueto	0.0287	0.0257	0.0238	11.0	8.4	2.7
6	Drew Smyly	0.0398	0.0434	0.0615	10.4	7.8	2.6
7	Tanner Roark	0.0360	0.0329	0.0285	13.0	10.3	2.6
8	Brandon Finnegan	0.0352	0.0387	0.0579	11.1	8.5	2.6
9	Jacob deGrom	0.0342	0.0301	0.0355	3.8	1.3	2.5
10	A.J. Griffin	0.0503	0.0550	0.0802	11.3	8.9	2.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jhoulys Chacín	0.0434	0.0332	0.0309	12.6	6.3	6.4
2	Max Scherzer	0.0269	0.0327	0.0558	19.4	13.9	5.4
3	Junior Guerra	0.0518	0.0423	0.0289	14.9	10.4	4.6
4	Justin Verlander	0.0313	0.0357	0.0514	11.4	7.3	4.1
5	Kevin Gausman	0.0332	0.0378	0.0527	9.2	5.6	3.6
6	Jerad Eickhoff	0.0513	0.0467	0.0505	6.6	3.1	3.5
7	Héctor Santiago	0.0362	0.0405	0.0592	12.2	8.7	3.5
8	Matt Moore	0.0456	0.0413	0.0430	8.4	5.0	3.4
9	CC Sabathia	0.0493	0.0447	0.0406	12.3	9.0	3.4
10	Luis Perdomo	0.0442	0.0390	0.0456	4.0	0.7	3.3

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kyle Hendricks	0.2500	0.2852 (34.3)	0.2928 (34.4)	0.2870 (36.1)	0.2834 (32.3)
Noah Syndergaard	0.3340	0.2860 (27.7)	0.2834 (35.2)	0.2844 (28.4)	0.2876 (27.2)
Justin Verlander	0.2545	0.2840 (36.4)	0.2988 (43.0)	0.2790 (32.4)	0.2889 (40.0)
Collin McHugh	0.3383	0.2847 (34.0)	0.2975 (29.9)	0.2832 (34.8)	0.2863 (33.6)
Robbie Ray	0.3523	0.2877 (41.7)	0.3108 (29.6)	0.2812 (46.3)	0.2941 (37.5)
Rick Porcello	0.2686	0.2972 (35.1)	0.3115 (41.2)	0.2965 (35.0)	0.2978 (34.9)
Lance McCullers Jr.	0.3827	0.2892 (29.1)	0.2914 (31.0)	0.2855 (30.2)	0.2929 (28.1)
Dan Straily	0.2388	0.2847 (44.9)	0.2880 (41.5)	0.2725 (35.7)	0.2966 (53.6)
Colby Lewis	0.2407	0.2901 (28.4)	0.3051 (32.0)	0.2856 (26.6)	0.2945 (30.1)
Jon Lester	0.2558	0.2816 (29.1)	0.3004 (38.1)	0.2828 (30.6)	0.2804 (27.4)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jake Arrieta	0.2754	0.2406	36.3
2	Max Scherzer	0.2817	0.2552	33.6
3	Michael Pineda	0.2909	0.3391	28.3
4	Marco Estrada	0.2615	0.2339	27.8
5	John Lackey	0.2802	0.2547	27.2
6	Adam Wainwright	0.2876	0.3300	26.7
7	Tim Lincecum	0.2881	0.4318	26.6
8	Archie Bradley	0.2867	0.3382	26.0
9	Matt Harvey	0.2777	0.3527	25.8
10	Brandon Finnegan	0.2804	0.2564	25.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adam Wainwright	0.2857	0.3300	34.7
2	John Lackey	0.2970	0.2547	34.2
3	Corey Kluber	0.3060	0.2706	33.3
4	J.A. Happ	0.3037	0.2679	31.1
5	Ian Kennedy	0.3029	0.2682	31.1
6	James Paxton	0.2838	0.3472	30.7
7	Ricky Nolasco	0.3286	0.2943	30.7
8	Cody Anderson	0.2654	0.3810	30.3
9	Michael Wacha	0.2812	0.3341	30.1
10	Junior Guerra	0.3077	0.2500	30.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jake Arrieta	0.2853	0.2406	44.6
2	Marco Estrada	0.2703	0.2339	34.6
3	Michael Pineda	0.2841	0.3391	32.9
4	Aaron Sanchez	0.2953	0.2674	31.1
5	Max Scherzer	0.2778	0.2552	30.7
6	John Lackey	0.2842	0.2547	30.7
7	Tanner Roark	0.2910	0.2690	28.6
8	José Fernández	0.2837	0.3317	27.0
9	Ryan Dull	0.2887	0.2094	26.3
10	Brandon Finnegan	0.2807	0.2564	26.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Max Scherzer	0.2855	0.2552	36.2
2	Adam Wainwright	0.2830	0.3300	31.4
3	Michael Fulmer	0.3045	0.2679	30.1
4	Matt Harvey	0.2723	0.3527	28.3
5	Michael Wacha	0.2778	0.3341	28.1
6	Edinson Volquez	0.2766	0.3191	27.8
7	Jake Arrieta	0.2656	0.2406	27.7
8	Archie Bradley	0.2857	0.3382	27.2
9	Tim Lincecum	0.2869	0.4318	27.0
10	James Paxton	0.2848	0.3472	26.8

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ricky Nolasco	0.3286	0.3031	0.2943	30.7	16.1	14.7
2	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.2764	0.2830	0.3115	26.6	14.8	11.8
3	Mike Leake	0.2788	0.2865	0.3183	27.4	15.8	11.6
4	Ian Kennedy	0.3029	0.2816	0.2682	31.1	19.8	11.2
5	Jaime García	0.2815	0.2880	0.3054	15.3	4.9	10.4
6	Sonny Gray	0.2712	0.2832	0.3186	22.8	12.7	10.1
7	Johnny Cueto	0.2681	0.2719	0.2927	18.8	8.7	10.0
8	Anthony DeSclafani	0.3117	0.2841	0.2955	9.9	0.3	9.6
9	Chris Young	0.2445	0.2603	0.3167	28.0	18.5	9.5
10	Zack Greinke	0.2694	0.2758	0.2942	14.4	5.1	9.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.2953	0.2812	0.2674	31.1	19.5	11.6
2	Jake Arrieta	0.2853	0.2754	0.2406	44.6	36.3	8.3
3	Marco Estrada	0.2703	0.2615	0.2339	34.6	27.8	6.8
4	David Price	0.2839	0.2916	0.3097	13.7	6.9	6.8
5	Tanner Roark	0.2910	0.2842	0.2690	28.6	22.3	6.3
6	Tyler Chatwood	0.3025	0.2941	0.2857	18.9	12.8	6.0
7	Kendall Graveman	0.2987	0.2918	0.2890	16.5	10.7	5.8
8	Michael Pineda	0.2841	0.2909	0.3391	32.9	28.3	4.7
9	Robbie Ray	0.2812	0.2877	0.3523	46.3	41.7	4.6
10	Félix Hernández	0.2934	0.2869	0.2711	22.1	17.5	4.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Dan Straily	0.2966	0.2847	0.2388	53.6	44.9	8.7
2	Sonny Gray	0.2689	0.2832	0.3186	20.5	12.7	7.9
3	Mike Leake	0.2778	0.2865	0.3183	23.2	15.8	7.3
4	Jaime García	0.2797	0.2880	0.3054	11.7	4.9	6.8
5	Ricky Nolasco	0.3120	0.3031	0.2943	22.5	16.1	6.4
6	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.2763	0.2830	0.3115	21.2	14.8	6.4
7	Dallas Keuchel	0.2797	0.2871	0.3039	10.0	4.2	5.8
8	Johnny Cueto	0.2666	0.2719	0.2927	14.3	8.7	5.6
9	Jorge De La Rosa	0.2828	0.2905	0.3252	20.0	14.7	5.3
10	Jeremy Hellickson	0.2983	0.2906	0.2744	26.1	20.8	5.2

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Justin Verlander	0.1841	0.2840 (33.3)	0.2235 (37.0)	0.2790 (29.5)	0.2889 (38.9)
Luis Perdomo	0.2744	0.2933 (29.2)	0.2232 (32.9)	0.2902 (30.7)	0.2963 (26.4)
Junior Guerra	0.1756	0.2900 (25.3)	0.2308 (27.9)	0.2904 (25.9)	0.2896 (25.7)
Robbie Ray	0.2713	0.2877 (36.1)	0.2162 (41.6)	0.2812 (40.6)	0.2941 (30.2)
Rick Porcello	0.2038	0.2972 (27.1)	0.2421 (35.5)	0.2965 (27.2)	0.2978 (28.8)
Trevor Rosenthal	0.3774	0.2895 (29.7)	0.2472 (25.3)	0.2808 (31.3)	0.2983 (27.7)
Dan Straily	0.1670	0.2847 (43.4)	0.2147 (39.0)	0.2725 (34.3)	0.2966 (53.8)
Max Scherzer	0.1771	0.2817 (37.5)	0.2036 (25.3)	0.2778 (34.7)	0.2855 (42.0)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jeremy Hellickson	0.2906	0.1860	32.1
2	Mike Pelfrey	0.2987	0.2871	27.8
3	Carlos Rodón	0.2900	0.2651	27.2
4	Corey Kluber	0.2879	0.1938	26.8
5	Dillon Gee	0.2829	0.2684	26.7
6	Blake Snell	0.2818	0.2834	25.9
7	Ryan Buchter	0.2863	0.1212	25.2
8	Travis Wood	0.2774	0.1163	24.7
9	Jerad Eickhoff	0.2846	0.1915	24.4
10	Collin McHugh	0.2847	0.2523	24.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Nathan Eovaldi	0.2540	0.1923	33.2
2	Chris Young	0.1703	0.2500	31.7
3	Aníbal Sánchez	0.2075	0.2562	31.4
4	Mike Leake	0.2063	0.2452	28.3
5	Travis Wood	0.2251	0.1163	27.8
6	Corey Kluber	0.2242	0.1938	27.5
7	Jhoulys Chacín	0.2043	0.2483	26.8
8	Boone Logan	0.2560	0.1154	26.6
9	John Lackey	0.2325	0.1988	26.4
10	Lance McCullers Jr.	0.2114	0.2857	25.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jake Arrieta	0.2853	0.1834	31.5
2	Mike Pelfrey	0.2958	0.2871	28.9
3	Marco Estrada	0.2703	0.1695	27.9
4	Dillon Gee	0.2813	0.2684	27.2
5	Jeremy Hellickson	0.2828	0.1860	26.7
6	Carlos Rodón	0.2900	0.2651	26.7
7	Chris Tillman	0.2833	0.1843	26.4
8	Blake Snell	0.2800	0.2834	26.3
9	Ryan Buchter	0.2869	0.1212	25.6
10	Kyle Hendricks	0.2870	0.1909	25.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jhoulys Chacín	0.2232	0.2483	54.9
2	Jeremy Hellickson	0.2983	0.1860	39.1
3	Corey Kluber	0.2914	0.1938	30.9
4	Daniel Mengden	0.2232	0.2512	29.8
5	Jerad Eickhoff	0.2883	0.1915	28.5
6	Edinson Volquez	0.2766	0.2467	27.2
7	Nathan Eovaldi	0.3051	0.1923	26.8
8	Travis Wood	0.2839	0.1163	26.7
9	Carlos Rodón	0.2900	0.2651	26.3
10	Mike Pelfrey	0.3015	0.2871	25.6

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jhoulys Chacín	0.2043	0.2912	0.2483	26.8	12.7	14.2
2	Jorge De La Rosa	0.2051	0.2905	0.2451	23.6	10.8	12.9
3	John Lackey	0.2325	0.2802	0.1988	26.4	13.9	12.5
4	Chris Sale	0.2376	0.2887	0.2154	21.5	9.4	12.1
5	Mike Leake	0.2063	0.2865	0.2452	28.3	16.4	11.9
6	Nathan Eovaldi	0.2540	0.2965	0.1923	33.2	21.7	11.5
7	Chris Young	0.1703	0.2603	0.2500	31.7	21.4	10.3
8	Bartolo Colon	0.2358	0.2887	0.2219	12.3	3.1	9.2
9	Aníbal Sánchez	0.2075	0.2857	0.2562	31.4	22.4	9.1
10	Madison Bumgarner	0.2201	0.2747	0.1990	20.7	11.6	9.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tony Barnette	0.2232	0.2910	0.2428	20.1	3.6	16.5
2	Aaron Sanchez	0.2953	0.2812	0.2070	20.7	8.9	11.7
3	Jake Arrieta	0.2853	0.2754	0.1834	31.5	23.1	8.4
4	Marco Estrada	0.2703	0.2615	0.1695	27.9	21.0	6.9
5	Jaime García	0.2963	0.2880	0.2236	7.8	1.1	6.7
6	David Price	0.2839	0.2916	0.2374	14.9	8.3	6.6
7	Tyler Chatwood	0.3025	0.2941	0.2100	20.3	14.2	6.2
8	Dallas Keuchel	0.2945	0.2871	0.2197	8.8	3.1	5.7
9	Kendall Graveman	0.2987	0.2918	0.2292	5.7	0.3	5.4
10	Tom Koehler	0.2894	0.2838	0.2205	5.2	0.3	4.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jhoulys Chacín	0.2232	0.2912	0.2483	54.9	12.7	42.2
2	Daniel Mengden	0.2232	0.2918	0.2512	29.8	7.4	22.4
3	Joe Biagini	0.2232	0.2852	0.2379	22.5	4.6	17.9
4	Lucas Harrell	0.2232	0.2915	0.2374	15.8	1.8	13.9
5	Chad Green	0.2232	0.2882	0.2373	15.0	2.4	12.6
6	Luke Weaver	0.2232	0.2892	0.3069	24.3	13.5	10.8
7	Dan Straily	0.2966	0.2847	0.1670	53.8	43.4	10.4
8	Daniel Wright	0.2232	0.2811	0.2754	20.4	10.2	10.1
9	Reynaldo López	0.2232	0.2912	0.2180	11.4	2.1	9.3
10	Buddy Boshers	0.2232	0.2795	0.2308	10.5	2.2	8.4

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Matt Moore	0.0449	0.0000 (18.3)	0.0659 (19.2)	0.0000 (18.2)	0.0000 (16.6)
Archie Bradley	0.0980	0.0000 (20.0)	0.0630 (21.2)	0.0000 (20.1)	0.0000 (21.3)
Jake Peavy	0.0994	0.0000 (17.0)	0.0663 (16.3)	0.0000 (17.1)	0.0000 (18.1)
Michael Pineda	0.0929	0.0000 (19.8)	0.0691 (16.6)	0.0000 (19.9)	0.0000 (21.3)
Logan Verrett	0.1227	0.0000 (22.8)	0.0556 (26.5)	0.0000 (22.8)	0.0000 (23.6)
Mike Fiers	0.0913	0.0000 (17.8)	0.0604 (21.0)	0.0000 (17.9)	0.0000 (19.2)
Michael Wacha	0.0951	0.0000 (17.2)	0.0634 (18.1)	0.0000 (17.3)	0.0000 (18.4)
Steven Wright	0.0376	0.0000 (19.1)	0.0603 (16.1)	0.0000 (19.0)	0.0000 (17.8)
Dillon Gee	0.0354	0.0000 (17.2)	0.0636 (16.5)	0.0000 (17.1)	0.0000 (16.1)
Tyler Duffey	0.1002	0.0000 (20.0)	0.0690 (17.6)	0.0000 (20.1)	0.0000 (21.2)
Tanner Roark	0.0345	0.0000 (27.6)	0.0616 (24.7)	0.0000 (27.4)	0.0000 (25.9)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Bush	0.0669	0.0429	22.0
2	Iván Nova	0.0000	0.0926	17.7
3	Chris Tillman	0.0000	0.0911	17.4
4	Carlos Martinez	0.0000	0.0464	16.4
5	Brandon Finnegan	0.0000	0.0445	16.3
6	Albert Suárez	0.0000	0.1115	15.9
7	Carlos Carrasco	0.0000	0.0921	15.2
8	Kenta Maeda	0.0000	0.0458	15.0
9	Jon Lester	0.0000	0.0481	14.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chad Bettis	0.0887	0.0595	25.2
2	Matt Wisler	0.0817	0.0503	22.3
3	Ian Kennedy	0.0802	0.0556	21.6
4	Jon Lester	0.0731	0.0481	21.4
5	Doug Fister	0.0507	0.0771	19.2
6	Sonny Gray	0.0471	0.0831	17.7
7	J.A. Happ	0.0759	0.0569	16.6
8	Kenta Maeda	0.0669	0.0458	16.4
9	Noah Syndergaard	0.0535	0.0766	15.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tony Barnette	0.0669	0.0405	22.9
2	Matt Bush	0.0669	0.0429	22.0
3	Iván Nova	0.0000	0.0926	17.8
4	Chris Tillman	0.0000	0.0911	17.5
5	Carlos Martinez	0.0000	0.0464	16.3
6	Brandon Finnegan	0.0000	0.0445	16.2
7	Albert Suárez	0.0000	0.1115	16.0
8	Carlos Carrasco	0.0000	0.0921	15.3
9	Kenta Maeda	0.0000	0.0458	14.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jhoulys Chacín	0.0669	0.0615	44.3
2	Tim Adleman	0.0669	0.0545	22.1
3	Matt Bush	0.0669	0.0429	21.5
4	Iván Nova	0.0000	0.0926	19.0
5	Chris Tillman	0.0000	0.0911	18.9
6	Daniel Mengden	0.0669	0.0791	17.4
7	Lucas Harrell	0.0669	0.0504	16.9
8	Albert Suárez	0.0000	0.1115	16.6
9	Carlos Carrasco	0.0000	0.0921	16.4

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chad Bettis	0.0887	0.0595	25.2	5.8	19.4
2	Ian Kennedy	0.0802	0.0556	21.6	9.1	12.5
3	Matt Wisler	0.0817	0.0503	22.3	11.0	11.3
4	Doug Fister	0.0507	0.0771	19.2	8.1	11.1
5	Danny Duffy	0.0500	0.0707	13.8	2.9	10.9
6	Jon Gray	0.0782	0.0639	11.4	2.0	9.5
7	Sonny Gray	0.0471	0.0831	17.7	8.5	9.2
8	J.A. Happ	0.0759	0.0569	16.6	7.8	8.8
9	José Fernández	0.0532	0.0707	11.6	3.0	8.6
10	Marcus Stroman	0.0549	0.0721	13.2	4.6	8.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tony Barnette	0.0669	0.0405	22.9	6.5	16.4
2	Chris Smith	0.0669	0.0536	8.0	1.3	6.7
3	Max Scherzer	0.0000	0.0705	3.5	3.4	0.1
4	Corey Kluber	0.0000	0.0713	4.1	3.9	0.1
5	Marcus Stroman	0.0000	0.0721	4.8	4.6	0.1
6	Martín Pérez	0.0000	0.0688	1.9	1.8	0.1
7	Edinson Volquez	0.0000	0.0674	0.7	0.6	0.1
8	Adam Wainwright	0.0000	0.0800	11.4	11.3	0.1
9	Jose Quintana	0.0000	0.0793	10.7	10.5	0.1
10	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0000	0.0705	3.3	3.2	0.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jhoulys Chacín	0.0669	0.0615	44.3	3.3	41.0
2	Tim Adleman	0.0669	0.0545	22.1	3.5	18.6
3	Lucas Harrell	0.0669	0.0504	16.9	3.4	13.5
4	Daniel Mengden	0.0669	0.0791	17.4	4.1	13.3
5	Joe Biagini	0.0669	0.0777	15.9	3.2	12.7
6	Hunter Cervenka	0.0669	0.0648	12.2	0.3	11.8
7	Aríel Miranda	0.0669	0.0759	12.9	2.1	10.8
8	Buddy Boshers	0.0669	0.0673	9.8	0.1	9.7
9	Chad Green	0.0669	0.0763	11.0	1.9	9.1
10	Brock Stewart	0.0669	0.0244	13.5	5.3	8.2

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Andrew Cashner	0.0205	0.0000 (7.9)	0.0103 (6.0)	0.0000 (7.9)	0.0000 (8.0)
Jake Peavy	0.0221	0.0000 (7.8)	0.0128 (4.9)	0.0000 (7.8)	0.0000 (7.9)
Justin Miller	0.0331	0.0000 (5.0)	0.0083 (4.8)	0.0000 (5.0)	0.0000 (5.1)
Martín Pérez	0.0015	0.0000 (4.7)	0.0091 (6.4)	0.0000 (4.7)	0.0000 (4.6)
Aaron Blair	0.0223	0.0000 (4.9)	0.0071 (5.0)	0.0000 (4.9)	0.0000 (5.0)
Jonathon Niese	0.0183	0.0000 (6.1)	0.0078 (5.7)	0.0000 (6.1)	0.0000 (6.2)
Jason Grilli	0.0397	0.0000 (8.2)	0.0081 (8.0)	0.0000 (8.2)	0.0000 (8.2)
Chad Bettis	0.0153	0.0000 (6.7)	0.0061 (7.5)	0.0000 (6.7)	0.0000 (6.9)
Colin Rea	0.0194	0.0000 (5.6)	0.0089 (4.8)	0.0000 (5.6)	0.0000 (5.7)
Mark Lowe	0.0284	0.0000 (4.8)	0.0068 (4.8)	0.0000 (4.8)	0.0000 (4.8)
Chaz Roe	0.0571	0.0000 (6.2)	0.0076 (6.1)	0.0000 (6.2)	0.0000 (6.2)
Jordan Zimmermann	0.0205	0.0000 (6.0)	0.0057 (6.7)	0.0000 (6.0)	0.0000 (6.1)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	Juan Nicasio	0.0195	6.4
2	Ryan Vogelsong	0.0240	6.2
3	Jeff Samardzija	0.0137	5.5
4	Ervin Santana	0.0000	5.3
5	Drew Pomeranz	0.0000	5.0
6	Jose Quintana	0.0017	4.5
7	Michael Pineda	0.0130	4.5
8	Cole Hamels	0.0019	4.4

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ian Kennedy	0.0134	0.0019	9.3
2	Carlos Martinez	0.0100	0.0019	6.5
3	Jose Quintana	0.0091	0.0017	6.1
4	A.J. Griffin	0.0058	0.0156	5.0
5	Matt Andriese	0.0096	0.0000	5.0
6	Dallas Keuchel	0.0054	0.0123	4.9
7	Jon Lester	0.0079	0.0019	4.7
8	Matt Moore	0.0073	0.0018	4.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	Juan Nicasio	0.0195	6.4
2	Ryan Vogelsong	0.0240	6.2
3	Jeff Samardzija	0.0137	5.5
4	Ervin Santana	0.0000	5.3
5	Drew Pomeranz	0.0000	5.0
6	Michael Pineda	0.0130	4.5
7	Jose Quintana	0.0017	4.5
8	Cole Hamels	0.0019	4.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Juan Nicasio	0.0000	0.0195	6.5
2	Ryan Vogelsong	0.0000	0.0240	6.3
3	Jeff Samardzija	0.0000	0.0137	5.7
4	Ervin Santana	0.0000	0.0000	5.1
5	Drew Pomeranz	0.0000	0.0000	4.8
6	Michael Pineda	0.0000	0.0130	4.6
7	Jhoulys Chacín	0.0071	0.0068	4.5
8	A.J. Griffin	0.0000	0.0156	4.4

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ian Kennedy	0.0134	0.0019	9.3	4.2	5.1
2	Matt Shoemaker	0.0026	0.0085	4.0	1.0	3.1
3	Yordano Ventura	0.0107	0.0053	4.3	1.4	2.9
4	Gio Gonzalez	0.0109	0.0059	3.8	0.9	2.9
5	Josh Tomlin	0.0111	0.0055	4.0	1.2	2.9
6	Ricky Nolasco	0.0106	0.0067	3.1	0.3	2.8
7	Jake Odorizzi	0.0108	0.0058	3.8	1.0	2.8
8	Taijuan Walker	0.0023	0.0079	3.2	0.5	2.7
9	Noah Syndergaard	0.0107	0.0064	3.2	0.5	2.6
10	Carlos Martinez	0.0100	0.0019	6.5	4.2	2.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tony Barnette	0.0071	0.0058	2.1	0.3	1.7
2	Chris Smith	0.0071	0.0000	1.4	0.7	0.7
3	Cory Luebke	0.0071	0.0000	0.7	0.4	0.4
4	David Price	0.0000	0.0094	2.3	2.3	0.0
5	Justin Verlander	0.0000	0.0072	0.2	0.1	0.0
6	Max Scherzer	0.0000	0.0076	0.5	0.5	0.0
7	Rick Porcello	0.0000	0.0079	0.8	0.7	0.0
8	Johnny Cueto	0.0000	0.0081	1.0	0.9	0.0
9	Jeff Samardzija	0.0000	0.0137	5.5	5.5	0.0
10	James Shields	0.0000	0.0108	3.1	3.0	0.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jhoulys Chacín	0.0071	0.0068	4.5	0.1	4.3
2	Joe Biagini	0.0071	0.0049	2.7	0.7	2.0
3	Joel De La Cruz	0.0071	0.0049	2.5	0.6	1.9
4	Wade LeBlanc	0.0071	0.0057	2.1	0.3	1.7
5	Aríel Miranda	0.0071	0.0063	1.8	0.2	1.6
6	Reynaldo López	0.0071	0.0000	2.8	1.4	1.4
7	Chad Green	0.0071	0.0000	2.8	1.4	1.4
8	Daniel Wright	0.0071	0.0000	2.5	1.3	1.2
9	Luke Weaver	0.0071	0.0000	2.3	1.2	1.1
10	Brock Stewart	0.0071	0.0000	1.8	0.9	0.9

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kyle Hendricks	0.0711	0.1022 (29.9)	0.1047 (31.6)	0.1047 (32.1)	0.0997 (27.8)
Justin Verlander	0.0897	0.1080 (24.8)	0.1129 (28.9)	0.1079 (25.1)	0.1081 (24.6)
Rick Porcello	0.0955	0.1130 (23.7)	0.1214 (30.9)	0.1108 (22.1)	0.1152 (25.4)
Chris Devenski	0.0637	0.1385 (34.2)	0.1178 (25.7)	0.1243 (28.6)	0.1528 (39.9)
Michael Fulmer	0.0881	0.1262 (30.6)	0.1178 (24.9)	0.1221 (28.2)	0.1303 (33.0)
Aníbal Sánchez	0.1617	0.1101 (28.4)	0.1141 (25.9)	0.1109 (27.5)	0.1093 (29.1)
James Shields	0.1484	0.1042 (28.9)	0.1029 (30.2)	0.1097 (24.0)	0.0987 (33.6)
Patrick Corbin	0.1555	0.1027 (30.6)	0.1011 (31.9)	0.1016 (31.1)	0.1038 (30.1)
Tyler Duffey	0.1728	0.1208 (25.6)	0.0997 (38.3)	0.1182 (26.9)	0.1233 (24.3)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tanner Roark	0.1101	0.0842	29.9
2	Aaron Sanchez	0.1129	0.0873	27.4
3	J.A. Happ	0.1155	0.0905	27.2
4	Rich Hill	0.1133	0.0661	24.7
5	Alfredo Simon	0.1249	0.2148	24.1
6	Sonny Gray	0.0991	0.1547	24.0
7	Ian Kennedy	0.1190	0.0990	23.8
8	Drew Smyly	0.0994	0.1396	22.9
9	Francisco Liriano	0.0936	0.1341	22.9
10	Jon Lester	0.0904	0.0716	22.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jon Lester	0.0988	0.0716	28.6
2	Dan Straily	0.1272	0.1010	27.7
3	Adam Wainwright	0.0860	0.1275	27.7
4	Sonny Gray	0.0927	0.1547	27.5
5	Alfredo Simon	0.1171	0.2148	26.5
6	Drew Smyly	0.0954	0.1396	26.1
7	Edinson Volquez	0.1077	0.1454	24.6
8	Zack Greinke	0.0746	0.1199	24.4
9	Ian Kennedy	0.1187	0.0990	23.3
10	David Phelps	0.1210	0.0653	22.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tanner Roark	0.1172	0.0842	36.3
2	Aaron Sanchez	0.1214	0.0873	34.4
3	Jon Lester	0.0944	0.0716	25.8
4	Alfredo Simon	0.1191	0.2148	25.7
5	Drew Smyly	0.0961	0.1396	25.0
6	Rich Hill	0.1129	0.0661	24.7
7	J.A. Happ	0.1105	0.0905	23.6
8	Jose Quintana	0.1071	0.0908	21.6
9	Marco Estrada	0.1211	0.1010	21.4
10	Carlos Martinez	0.1008	0.0841	21.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Dan Straily	0.1342	0.1010	33.3
2	Ian Kennedy	0.1298	0.0990	32.4
3	J.A. Happ	0.1205	0.0905	31.0
4	Sonny Gray	0.0902	0.1547	28.8
5	CC Sabathia	0.1343	0.1081	26.9
6	Francisco Liriano	0.0891	0.1341	26.4
7	Adam Wainwright	0.0892	0.1275	25.0
8	Rich Hill	0.1138	0.0661	24.8
9	Jerad Eickhoff	0.1294	0.1085	24.1
10	Tanner Roark	0.1030	0.0842	23.6

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jeff Samardzija	0.1185	0.0972	0.1062	17.5	0.2	17.3
2	Kenta Maeda	0.1178	0.0969	0.1006	18.6	3.9	14.7
3	Tyler Duffey	0.0997	0.1208	0.1728	38.3	25.6	12.7
4	Adam Morgan	0.1190	0.1420	0.1598	16.2	4.4	11.8
5	Matthew Boyd	0.1455	0.1219	0.1238	12.6	3.0	9.6
6	Drew Pomeranz	0.1111	0.0978	0.0925	19.3	10.2	9.1
7	Noah Syndergaard	0.1035	0.0912	0.0820	22.6	13.6	8.9
8	Adam Wainwright	0.0860	0.0963	0.1275	27.7	18.8	8.9
9	Doug Fister	0.1050	0.1173	0.1258	9.4	0.5	8.9
10	Madison Bumgarner	0.0910	0.0810	0.0866	12.0	3.2	8.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.1214	0.1129	0.0873	34.4	27.4	7.0
2	Tanner Roark	0.1172	0.1101	0.0842	36.3	29.9	6.4
3	Jake Arrieta	0.0895	0.0822	0.0906	6.8	0.6	6.1
4	Doug Fister	0.1246	0.1173	0.1258	6.5	0.5	6.0
5	Josh Tomlin	0.1092	0.1174	0.1338	10.9	5.2	5.7
6	Kenta Maeda	0.1038	0.0969	0.1006	9.1	3.9	5.2
7	Pat Dean	0.1176	0.1338	0.1567	8.9	4.1	4.7
8	Adam Morgan	0.1325	0.1420	0.1598	9.0	4.4	4.6
9	John Lackey	0.1069	0.1012	0.0989	13.1	8.5	4.5
10	Zach Davies	0.1198	0.1137	0.1158	9.2	4.7	4.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Dan Straily	0.1342	0.1158	0.1010	33.3	19.0	14.3
2	Ian Kennedy	0.1298	0.1190	0.0990	32.4	23.8	8.6
3	CC Sabathia	0.1343	0.1253	0.1081	26.9	20.2	6.7
4	Jerad Eickhoff	0.1294	0.1211	0.1085	24.1	17.6	6.5
5	Adam Wainwright	0.0892	0.0963	0.1275	25.0	18.8	6.2
6	Chris Devenski	0.1528	0.1385	0.0637	39.9	34.2	5.7
7	Jimmy Nelson	0.1059	0.1126	0.1338	15.4	9.8	5.6
8	Daniel Mengden	0.1178	0.1340	0.1627	12.0	6.5	5.5
9	Vance Worley	0.1378	0.1229	0.1014	16.5	11.2	5.3
10	Matt Moore	0.1196	0.1131	0.1110	14.6	9.4	5.2

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kyle Hendricks	0.0604	0.0944 (31.8)	0.0986 (34.8)	0.0950 (33.1)	0.0938 (30.4)
Alfredo Simon	0.2047	0.1158 (23.9)	0.1083 (26.2)	0.1095 (25.4)	0.1221 (22.4)
Aaron Blair	0.1821	0.1051 (22.1)	0.1092 (20.9)	0.1072 (21.1)	0.1030 (23.2)
Rick Porcello	0.0876	0.1045 (22.7)	0.1100 (27.4)	0.1013 (20.9)	0.1078 (24.6)
Chris Devenski	0.0637	0.1290 (30.1)	0.1092 (22.0)	0.1151 (25.0)	0.1429 (35.3)
Michael Fulmer	0.0835	0.1178 (27.8)	0.1092 (22.1)	0.1130 (25.5)	0.1226 (30.1)
Aníbal Sánchez	0.1497	0.1024 (25.8)	0.1077 (22.4)	0.1021 (25.2)	0.1028 (26.4)
James Shields	0.1436	0.0965 (31.6)	0.0950 (33.0)	0.1007 (27.2)	0.0924 (35.9)
Tanner Roark	0.0772	0.1021 (28.7)	0.0943 (21.8)	0.1079 (34.7)	0.0963 (22.7)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.1046	0.0810	25.4
2	Rich Hill	0.1049	0.0592	23.8
3	Steven Wright	0.1157	0.0884	23.6
4	Ervin Santana	0.1133	0.0909	23.2
5	J.A. Happ	0.1070	0.0867	23.0
6	Tyler Duffey	0.1123	0.1594	22.9
7	Sonny Gray	0.0914	0.1431	22.3
8	Justin Verlander	0.1003	0.0853	21.4
9	Drew Smyly	0.0923	0.1287	20.5
10	Adam Wainwright	0.0884	0.1204	19.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tyler Duffey	0.0945	0.1594	33.6
2	Adam Wainwright	0.0780	0.1204	28.8
3	Sonny Gray	0.0836	0.1431	26.4
4	Zack Greinke	0.0692	0.1154	25.2
5	Shelby Miller	0.0896	0.1500	23.9
6	Noah Syndergaard	0.0947	0.0712	23.8
7	Edinson Volquez	0.0971	0.1325	23.0
8	Justin Verlander	0.1015	0.0853	22.3
9	Drew Smyly	0.0902	0.1287	22.2
10	Jon Lester	0.0881	0.0691	21.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.1110	0.0810	31.5
2	Steven Wright	0.1157	0.0884	24.4
3	Tyler Duffey	0.1088	0.1594	24.3
4	Rich Hill	0.1040	0.0592	24.0
5	Ervin Santana	0.1124	0.0909	23.5
6	Drew Smyly	0.0881	0.1287	22.7
7	Justin Verlander	0.0996	0.0853	21.9
8	Marco Estrada	0.1135	0.0941	21.2
9	Jon Lester	0.0855	0.0691	20.9
10	Dallas Keuchel	0.0819	0.1213	20.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Sonny Gray	0.0846	0.1431	26.4
2	J.A. Happ	0.1121	0.0867	26.1
3	Adam Wainwright	0.0831	0.1204	25.3
4	Ian Kennedy	0.1213	0.0978	25.3
5	Dan Straily	0.1252	0.1010	25.0
6	CC Sabathia	0.1252	0.1016	23.9
7	Rich Hill	0.1058	0.0592	23.7
8	Jerad Eickhoff	0.1202	0.0986	23.5
9	Mike Montgomery	0.1159	0.0676	23.1
10	Ervin Santana	0.1141	0.0909	22.9

Most Unique Misses for Earned Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Kenta Maeda	0.1092	0.0896	0.0950	16.3	2.4	13.9
2	Doug Fister	0.0931	0.1090	0.1194	13.9	1.4	12.6
3	Adam Morgan	0.1098	0.1325	0.1499	16.0	4.5	11.6
4	Tyler Duffey	0.0945	0.1123	0.1594	33.6	22.9	10.7
5	Tyler Wilson	0.0977	0.1256	0.1329	11.0	0.6	10.5
6	Max Scherzer	0.0856	0.0738	0.0831	9.8	0.6	9.2
7	Madison Bumgarner	0.0846	0.0744	0.0757	15.9	6.7	9.1
8	Adam Wainwright	0.0780	0.0884	0.1204	28.8	19.8	9.0
9	Matthew Boyd	0.1349	0.1134	0.1189	10.1	1.3	8.8
10	Yovani Gallardo	0.0947	0.1110	0.1350	16.8	8.1	8.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.1110	0.1046	0.0810	31.5	25.4	6.1
2	Tanner Roark	0.1079	0.1021	0.0772	34.7	28.7	6.0
3	Kenta Maeda	0.0946	0.0896	0.0950	6.8	2.4	4.5
4	Josh Tomlin	0.1009	0.1091	0.1172	4.7	0.3	4.4
5	Pat Dean	0.1084	0.1239	0.1567	11.5	7.2	4.3
6	John Lackey	0.0977	0.0933	0.0936	10.5	6.3	4.2
7	Zach Davies	0.1100	0.1055	0.1056	9.7	5.8	3.9
8	Luis Perdomo	0.1118	0.1189	0.1405	12.5	8.6	3.9
9	Carlos Rodón	0.1053	0.1012	0.1035	8.3	4.5	3.8
10	Jimmy Nelson	0.1099	0.1044	0.1140	4.6	0.8	3.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Dan Straily	0.1252	0.1073	0.1010	25.0	11.8	13.2
2	Ian Kennedy	0.1213	0.1107	0.0978	25.3	17.6	7.7
3	CC Sabathia	0.1252	0.1161	0.1016	23.9	17.8	6.1
4	Jerad Eickhoff	0.1202	0.1122	0.0986	23.5	18.0	5.6
5	Doug Fister	0.1031	0.1090	0.1194	6.9	1.4	5.5
6	Daniel Mengden	0.1092	0.1246	0.1566	13.3	7.8	5.5
7	Adam Wainwright	0.0831	0.0884	0.1204	25.3	19.8	5.5
8	Jimmy Nelson	0.0989	0.1044	0.1140	6.2	0.8	5.4
9	Chris Devenski	0.1429	0.1290	0.0637	35.3	30.1	5.2
10	Jake Arrieta	0.0696	0.0749	0.0855	6.7	1.6	5.1

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Junior Guerra	0.4500	0.0858 (183.0)	0.0833 (160.3)	0.0499 (198.2)	0.1852 (143.1)
Aaron Sanchez	0.5000	0.1810 (258.2)	0.1250 (264.0)	0.2144 (227.8)	0.1636 (286.2)
Rick Porcello	0.6667	0.4294 (218.2)	0.2703 (316.4)	0.3938 (245.3)	0.4667 (201.1)
Steven Wright	0.5417	0.2546 (193.5)	0.1852 (207.0)	0.2086 (220.2)	0.3182 (163.6)
J.A. Happ	0.6250	0.3571 (219.5)	0.2564 (260.9)	0.3687 (206.2)	0.3462 (242.6)
Tanner Roark	0.4706	0.3032 (149.9)	0.1944 (201.2)	0.3323 (120.6)	0.2812 (184.1)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Dan Straily	0.1236	0.4118	234.5
2	Bartolo Colon	0.2299	0.4412	173.3
3	Michael Pineda	0.4108	0.1875	162.9
4	Patrick Corbin	0.3620	0.1389	150.9
5	Drew Pomeranz	0.1516	0.3548	148.4
6	Chris Tillman	0.3375	0.5333	145.7
7	Trevor Bauer	0.1711	0.3429	145.6
8	Kyle Hendricks	0.3344	0.5161	141.3
9	José Fernández	0.3821	0.5517	130.8
10	Brandon Finnegan	0.1527	0.3226	130.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carlos Martinez	0.1837	0.5161	235.9
2	Jon Lester	0.2895	0.5938	209.7
3	Rich Hill	0.0833	0.6000	208.9
4	Corey Kluber	0.2821	0.5625	206.0
5	Kyle Hendricks	0.2195	0.5161	190.5
6	Johnny Cueto	0.3077	0.5625	188.5
7	Chad Bettis	0.1667	0.4375	187.2
8	Dan Straily	0.1364	0.4118	185.7
9	José Fernández	0.2593	0.5517	185.4
10	Chris Sale	0.2895	0.5312	182.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Dan Straily	0.0808	0.4118	264.3
2	Bartolo Colon	0.1633	0.4412	221.9
3	Trevor Bauer	0.1197	0.3429	183.2
4	Patrick Corbin	0.3604	0.1389	153.4
5	Michael Pineda	0.3926	0.1875	153.0
6	Danny Duffy	0.0837	0.2857	149.6
7	Drew Pomeranz	0.1493	0.3548	146.4
8	Luis Perdomo	0.0403	0.2571	145.4
9	Chris Tillman	0.3418	0.5333	138.9
10	Johnny Cueto	0.4081	0.5625	138.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kyle Hendricks	0.2857	0.5161	191.0
2	Tyler Chatwood	0.2000	0.4444	180.9
3	José Fernández	0.3462	0.5517	170.6
4	Michael Pineda	0.4286	0.1875	162.6
5	Chris Tillman	0.3333	0.5333	161.6
6	Drew Pomeranz	0.1538	0.3548	159.6
7	Jason Hammel	0.3077	0.5000	151.0
8	Mike Foltynewicz	0.1515	0.4091	148.9
9	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.3333	0.4848	148.4
10	Brandon Finnegan	0.1538	0.3226	142.9

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Carlos Martinez	0.1837	0.3958	0.5161	235.9	103.7	132.2
2	Jon Gray	0.0968	0.3213	0.3448	147.5	22.3	125.2
3	Chris Sale	0.2895	0.4715	0.5312	182.2	61.3	120.9
4	Jon Lester	0.2895	0.4699	0.5938	209.7	104.9	104.8
5	Noah Syndergaard	0.2105	0.3970	0.4516	149.0	46.5	102.4
6	Rich Hill	0.0833	0.3620	0.6000	208.9	107.9	100.9
7	Corey Kluber	0.2821	0.4479	0.5625	206.0	105.3	100.7
8	Jeff Samardzija	0.2105	0.3793	0.3750	102.5	3.0	99.5
9	Johnny Cueto	0.3077	0.4688	0.5625	188.5	89.5	99.0
10	Justin Verlander	0.2500	0.4079	0.4706	162.3	63.7	98.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Juan Nicasio	0.3249	0.1799	0.1923	66.7	10.4	56.2
2	Johnny Cueto	0.4081	0.4688	0.5625	138.4	89.5	48.9
3	Bartolo Colon	0.1633	0.2299	0.4412	221.9	173.3	48.6
4	Trevor Bauer	0.1197	0.1711	0.3429	183.2	145.6	37.5
5	Drew Smyly	0.3795	0.3398	0.2333	105.9	72.7	33.1
6	Kevin Gausman	0.3625	0.3242	0.3000	45.3	12.4	32.9
7	Danny Duffy	0.0837	0.1327	0.2857	149.6	117.6	32.0
8	Matt Shoemaker	0.2252	0.2771	0.3333	74.0	42.8	31.2
9	Ricky Nolasco	0.3264	0.2951	0.2500	60.3	30.4	29.8
10	Dan Straily	0.0808	0.1236	0.4118	264.3	234.5	29.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Matt Bowman	0.3333	0.0899	0.0339	76.8	13.5	63.3
2	Matt Barnes	0.3200	0.0955	0.0645	65.9	6.6	59.2
3	Adam Wainwright	0.5652	0.4775	0.3939	123.1	64.1	59.0
4	Mike Montgomery	0.2500	0.0906	0.0816	59.0	0.5	58.5
5	Tyler Chatwood	0.2000	0.2688	0.4444	180.9	122.7	58.2
6	Chris Rusin	0.3214	0.1435	0.1034	67.2	11.3	55.9
7	Pat Dean	0.2800	0.0786	0.0526	60.4	5.4	55.0
8	Vance Worley	0.2500	0.0825	0.0571	60.9	6.4	54.5
9	Jesse Chavez	0.3478	0.1472	0.0323	81.7	30.2	51.5
10	Kyle Hendricks	0.2857	0.3344	0.5161	191.0	141.3	49.8

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Johnny Cueto	0.1562	0.3143 (137.3)	0.2564 (133.4)	0.3277 (143.5)	0.3000 (117.0)
Chris Archer	0.5758	0.2980 (237.9)	0.2439 (238.6)	0.3239 (221.3)	0.2727 (266.9)
Rick Porcello	0.1212	0.3591 (209.8)	0.2973 (202.3)	0.3202 (169.5)	0.4000 (238.3)
Brandon Finnegan	0.3548	0.1586 (145.6)	0.1154 (138.2)	0.1642 (146.2)	0.1538 (155.6)
Christian Friedrich	0.5000	0.0568 (252.5)	0.0976 (199.2)	0.0504 (259.8)	0.0667 (251.9)
Drew Pomeranz	0.3871	0.1605 (160.8)	0.1250 (148.3)	0.1674 (160.5)	0.1538 (171.7)
Dallas Keuchel	0.4615	0.2961 (117.5)	0.2250 (129.9)	0.2924 (124.5)	0.3000 (120.9)
James Shields	0.5758	0.3602 (179.0)	0.1842 (279.8)	0.4097 (143.5)	0.3103 (227.2)
Matt Harvey	0.5882	0.2761 (126.4)	0.1892 (139.8)	0.3196 (111.4)	0.2308 (148.1)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Masahiro Tanaka	0.3426	0.1290	170.2
2	J.A. Happ	0.3133	0.1250	148.1
3	Matt Shoemaker	0.2665	0.4815	145.1
4	Shelby Miller	0.3313	0.6000	124.6
5	Jhoulys Chacín	0.4146	0.2353	111.9
6	Robbie Ray	0.3268	0.4688	111.8
7	Cole Hamels	0.2890	0.1562	110.7
8	Chris Tillman	0.3515	0.2000	106.8
9	R.A. Dickey	0.3579	0.5000	105.0
10	Luis Perdomo	0.1296	0.2857	104.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tyler Duffey	0.1290	0.4615	167.7
2	Jerad Eickhoff	0.1667	0.4242	167.4
3	Danny Duffy	0.2308	0.0714	153.9
4	Matt Wisler	0.2222	0.4815	139.6
5	Matt Shoemaker	0.2222	0.4815	139.0
6	Drew Smyly	0.1613	0.4000	138.4
7	R.A. Dickey	0.2632	0.5000	135.1
8	Aaron Nola	0.1212	0.4500	134.1
9	Sonny Gray	0.2000	0.5000	128.6
10	Jaime García	0.1818	0.4062	128.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Shoemaker	0.2080	0.4815	188.4
2	Luis Perdomo	0.0571	0.2857	157.0
3	Cole Hamels	0.3435	0.1562	151.6
4	Masahiro Tanaka	0.3251	0.1290	151.0
5	J.A. Happ	0.3192	0.1250	147.8
6	Dan Straily	0.0802	0.2353	129.6
7	Aaron Sanchez	0.2328	0.0667	124.5
8	Jake Odorizzi	0.3443	0.1818	119.0
9	Matt Andriese	0.0617	0.2759	117.4
10	Chris Tillman	0.3702	0.2000	115.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Masahiro Tanaka	0.3600	0.1290	177.1
2	Luis Perdomo	0.5263	0.2857	152.0
3	Shelby Miller	0.2812	0.6000	151.7
4	Bartolo Colon	0.4286	0.2353	144.2
5	Daniel Mengden	0.2273	0.6429	141.6
6	Robbie Ray	0.3000	0.4688	139.5
7	J.A. Happ	0.3077	0.1250	136.7
8	Sonny Gray	0.2500	0.5000	134.9
9	Jimmy Nelson	0.3448	0.5000	134.1
10	Dan Straily	0.3929	0.2353	116.1

Most Unique Misses for Loss Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jerad Eickhoff	0.1667	0.4093	0.4242	167.4	13.9	153.4
2	Danny Duffy	0.2308	0.1087	0.0714	153.9	25.6	128.3
3	Matt Moore	0.1786	0.3623	0.3636	112.2	3.0	109.2
4	Aaron Nola	0.1212	0.3852	0.4500	134.1	32.4	101.7
5	James Shields	0.1842	0.3602	0.5758	279.8	179.0	100.8
6	Adam Morgan	0.2059	0.4521	0.4783	112.1	14.4	97.8
7	Tyler Duffey	0.1290	0.3455	0.4615	167.7	70.5	97.2
8	Carlos Rodón	0.1579	0.3418	0.3571	105.9	12.5	93.3
9	Steven Matz	0.1000	0.3237	0.3636	116.2	23.0	93.2
10	Carlos Martinez	0.1224	0.3103	0.2903	94.4	14.4	80.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Juan Nicasio	0.3554	0.1892	0.1346	108.9	26.9	82.1
2	Aaron Sanchez	0.2328	0.1515	0.0667	124.5	65.3	59.2
3	Mike Foltynewicz	0.3990	0.2845	0.2273	85.7	28.9	56.8
4	Dan Straily	0.0802	0.1455	0.2353	129.6	72.8	56.7
5	Trevor Bauer	0.1238	0.1834	0.2286	91.9	38.4	53.5
6	Luis Perdomo	0.0571	0.1296	0.2857	157.0	104.8	52.2
7	Tanner Roark	0.3679	0.2828	0.2941	55.8	11.6	44.2
8	Matt Shoemaker	0.2080	0.2665	0.4815	188.4	145.1	43.3
9	Chad Bettis	0.3677	0.3106	0.2500	88.9	47.5	41.3
10	Cole Hamels	0.3435	0.2890	0.1562	151.6	110.7	40.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Bartolo Colon	0.4286	0.2629	0.2353	144.2	20.1	124.1
2	Mike Montgomery	0.3750	0.1129	0.1020	108.5	3.6	104.8
3	Matt Bowman	0.4167	0.1055	0.0847	90.2	5.2	85.0
4	Vance Worley	0.3333	0.0949	0.0571	96.8	13.0	83.8
5	Chien-Ming Wang	0.4500	0.1084	0.0000	101.4	24.5	76.9
6	Danny Duffy	0.2143	0.1087	0.0714	96.4	25.6	70.8
7	Brett Oberholtzer	0.4167	0.1877	0.0811	104.2	33.5	70.7
8	Matt Barnes	0.3200	0.0921	0.0484	74.8	11.9	62.9
9	Tanner Roark	0.2188	0.2828	0.2941	73.8	11.6	62.2
10	Severino González	0.5000	0.1194	0.0741	62.7	6.5	56.1

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Roberto Osuna	0.5000	0.3123 (52.2)	0.2143 (87.9)	0.3062 (54.0)	0.0000 (135.9)
Alex Colomé	0.6491	0.0675 (130.0)	0.0263 (145.2)	0.0431 (135.5)	0.0000 (140.4)
Francisco Rodríguez	0.7213	0.4523 (61.7)	0.4565 (66.8)	0.4877 (53.4)	0.0000 (162.9)
Sam Dyson	0.5205	0.0383 (135.6)	0.0426 (141.8)	0.0385 (135.5)	0.0000 (140.4)
Jeanmar Gómez	0.5286	0.0441 (142.0)	0.0227 (156.0)	0.0400 (143.2)	0.0000 (148.7)
Ryan Madson	0.4762	0.0508 (113.1)	0.0513 (120.0)	0.0523 (112.7)	0.0000 (121.0)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	David Hernandez	0.4171	0.0143	131.8
2	Ken Giles	0.5108	0.2174	85.7
3	Edwin Díaz	0.0000	0.3673	78.3
4	Seunghwan Oh	0.0000	0.2500	76.2
5	Jason Grilli	0.3407	0.0597	72.1
6	Jim Johnson	0.0350	0.3077	70.8
7	Brandon Kintzler	0.0000	0.3148	69.1
8	Sean Doolittle	0.4921	0.0909	63.2
9	Aroldis Chapman	0.3290	0.6102	61.0
10	Danny Farquhar	0.3367	0.0000	54.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jeurys Familia	0.2909	0.6538	122.8
2	AJ Ramos	0.1961	0.5970	116.9
3	Jeremy Jeffress	0.0217	0.4576	109.7
4	Wade Davis	0.1333	0.6000	85.6
5	Edwin Díaz	0.0289	0.3673	77.7
6	Seunghwan Oh	0.0289	0.2500	75.3
7	Zack Britton	0.4130	0.6812	73.1
8	Jason Grilli	0.3429	0.0597	66.2
9	Tony Cingrani	0.0370	0.2615	66.1
10	Brandon Kintzler	0.0417	0.3148	65.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	David Hernandez	0.4308	0.0143	136.2
2	Ken Giles	0.5062	0.2174	84.4
3	Edwin Díaz	0.0000	0.3673	78.3
4	Seunghwan Oh	0.0000	0.2500	76.2
5	Jason Grilli	0.3523	0.0597	75.1
6	Jim Johnson	0.0345	0.3077	70.9
7	Brandon Kintzler	0.0000	0.3148	69.1
8	Sean Doolittle	0.5046	0.0909	65.1
9	Aroldis Chapman	0.3255	0.6102	61.8
10	Tony Cingrani	0.0545	0.2615	54.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	Jeurys Familia	0.6538	200.9
2	Zack Britton	0.6812	165.9
3	Mark Melancon	0.6267	161.7
4	Kenley Jansen	0.6620	159.1
5	AJ Ramos	0.5970	158.2
6	David Robertson	0.5968	151.9
7	Aroldis Chapman	0.6102	129.2
8	Cody Allen	0.4776	118.7
9	Santiago Casilla	0.5000	113.8
10	Craig Kimbrel	0.5439	113.5

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	AJ Ramos	0.1961	0.5002	0.5970	116.9	25.1	91.8
2	Jeurys Familia	0.2909	0.5289	0.6538	122.8	38.0	84.7
3	Wade Davis	0.1333	0.4969	0.6000	85.6	17.0	68.5
4	Jeremy Jeffress	0.0217	0.2586	0.4576	109.7	46.4	63.3
5	Addison Reed	0.2444	0.0369	0.0125	64.6	9.4	55.2
6	Cody Allen	0.2778	0.5155	0.4776	57.9	11.7	46.2
7	Joakim Soria	0.2449	0.0637	0.0143	61.9	16.4	45.5
8	Zack Britton	0.4130	0.5356	0.6812	73.1	35.3	37.7
9	Mark Melancon	0.4107	0.5210	0.6267	63.6	26.8	36.8
10	John Axford	0.2128	0.0130	0.0441	43.1	7.1	36.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tony Barnette	0.0289	0.0000	0.0000	8.7	1.6	7.1
2	Tony Cingrani	0.0545	0.0781	0.2615	54.3	48.0	6.4
3	Alex Colomé	0.0431	0.0675	0.6491	135.5	130.0	5.5
4	David Hernandez	0.4308	0.4171	0.0143	136.2	131.8	4.4
5	David Phelps	0.0222	0.0324	0.0625	11.9	8.3	3.6
6	Jake McGee	0.3631	0.3463	0.2632	21.8	18.4	3.5
7	Drew Storen	0.2600	0.2468	0.0526	48.8	45.7	3.0
8	Jason Grilli	0.3523	0.3407	0.0597	75.1	72.1	2.9
9	Chris Smith	0.0289	0.0000	0.0000	3.5	0.6	2.9
10	Cody Allen	0.5246	0.5155	0.4776	14.1	11.7	2.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jeurys Familia	0.5289	0.6538	200.9	38.0	162.9
2	Mark Melancon	0.5210	0.6267	161.7	26.8	134.9
3	AJ Ramos	0.5002	0.5970	158.2	25.1	133.1
4	Zack Britton	0.5356	0.6812	165.9	35.3	130.6
5	Kenley Jansen	0.5273	0.6620	159.1	32.2	127.0
6	David Robertson	0.4865	0.5968	151.9	27.7	124.2
7	Craig Kimbrel	0.5230	0.5439	113.5	3.2	110.3
8	Cody Allen	0.5155	0.4776	118.7	11.7	107.0
9	Francisco Rodríguez	0.4523	0.7213	162.9	61.7	101.2
10	Fernando Rodney	0.3684	0.3731	97.7	0.5	97.2

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kyle Barraclough	0.3867	0.0325 (110.6)	0.1818 (72.4)	0.0309 (108.5)	0.0000 (101.9)
Addison Reed	0.5000	0.2495 (78.4)	0.1111 (127.9)	0.2496 (75.8)	0.0000 (135.7)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Dan Straily	0.2860	0.0000	220.8
2	Trevor Bauer	0.2369	0.0000	186.2
3	Danny Duffy	0.3083	0.0476	185.2
4	Dillon Gee	0.2408	0.0000	128.7
5	Edwin Jackson	0.3315	0.0000	120.9
6	Ryan Vogelsong	0.3445	0.0417	108.2
7	Mike Montgomery	0.3552	0.1020	101.8
8	Junior Guerra	0.2091	0.0000	99.3
9	Logan Verrett	0.2498	0.0000	98.4
10	Alex Colomé	0.4356	0.0175	92.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.2000	0.0000	132.8
2	David Phelps	0.0857	0.3906	118.5
3	Carlos Martinez	0.1633	0.0000	106.3
4	Joe Blanton	0.0690	0.3733	105.9
5	Héctor Neris	0.0800	0.3544	100.5
6	Neftalí Feliz	0.0556	0.4677	96.8
7	Matt Bush	0.0554	0.3793	86.5
8	Drew Pomeranz	0.1500	0.0000	83.1
9	Felipe Vázquez	0.1250	0.3467	82.9
10	Erasmo Ramírez	0.0488	0.2344	82.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Dan Straily	0.1808	0.0000	144.1
2	Trevor Bauer	0.1622	0.0000	132.5
3	Danny Duffy	0.2035	0.0476	114.8
4	Dillon Gee	0.1582	0.0000	87.8
5	Carlos Torres	0.0285	0.2778	84.1
6	Erasmo Ramírez	0.0167	0.2344	81.9
7	Shane Greene	0.0000	0.3200	81.6
8	Matt Bush	0.0554	0.3793	78.4
9	Edwin Jackson	0.2086	0.0000	78.2
10	Junior Guerra	0.1424	0.0000	70.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	David Phelps	0.3906	118.6
2	Joe Blanton	0.3733	100.7
3	Héctor Neris	0.3544	98.7
4	Dellin Betances	0.3836	98.7
5	Felipe Vázquez	0.3467	95.8
6	Will Harris	0.4242	94.5
7	Nate Jones	0.3944	93.4
8	Neftalí Feliz	0.4677	90.3
9	Brad Brach	0.3380	88.5
10	Kelvin Herrera	0.3611	87.0

Most Unique Misses for Hold Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.2000	0.0133	0.0000	132.8	4.7	128.1
2	Carlos Martinez	0.1633	0.0000	0.0000	106.3	5.9	100.4
3	David Phelps	0.0857	0.3077	0.3906	118.5	31.8	86.8
4	Drew Smyly	0.1290	0.0000	0.0000	71.7	5.4	66.3
5	Joe Blanton	0.0690	0.2475	0.3733	105.9	41.9	64.0
6	Brad Hand	0.0789	0.3274	0.2561	76.1	23.3	52.8
7	Héctor Neris	0.0800	0.2157	0.3544	100.5	47.9	52.6
8	Matt Andriese	0.0690	0.1466	0.1379	53.1	0.7	52.4
9	Blake Wood	0.0833	0.2269	0.2143	53.7	1.8	52.0
10	Neftalí Feliz	0.0556	0.2687	0.4677	96.8	45.0	51.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	David Phelps	0.2107	0.3077	0.3906	62.9	31.8	31.2
2	Joe Blanton	0.1604	0.2475	0.3733	66.7	41.9	24.8
3	Matt Andriese	0.0970	0.1466	0.1379	20.9	0.7	20.2
4	Aaron Sanchez	0.0194	0.0133	0.0000	16.2	4.7	11.5
5	J.P. Howell	0.2543	0.2168	0.0312	49.3	39.2	10.1
6	Brad Brach	0.2553	0.2874	0.3380	25.4	18.0	7.3
7	Brandon Finnegan	0.0186	0.0173	0.0000	14.5	7.3	7.2
8	Antonio Bastardo	0.2770	0.2616	0.2174	18.0	11.0	7.1
9	Drew Pomeranz	0.0868	0.0855	0.0000	61.8	55.0	6.8
10	Justin Grimm	0.3039	0.2829	0.1471	35.6	28.9	6.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	David Phelps	0.0000	0.3077	0.3906	118.6	31.8	86.9
2	Brad Brach	0.0000	0.2874	0.3380	88.5	18.0	70.4
3	Jhoulys Chacín	0.0554	0.0000	0.0000	68.9	4.6	64.3
4	Blake Treinen	0.0000	0.3225	0.3014	65.2	3.7	61.5
5	Joe Blanton	0.0000	0.2475	0.3733	100.7	41.9	58.8
6	Fernando Salas	0.0000	0.2603	0.2667	62.4	4.0	58.4
7	Addison Reed	0.0000	0.2495	0.5000	135.7	78.4	57.3
8	Tyler Clippard	0.0000	0.2792	0.3623	80.9	23.7	57.2
9	Kelvin Herrera	0.0000	0.2578	0.3611	87.0	31.3	55.7
10	Will Harris	0.0000	0.2779	0.4242	94.5	39.2	55.3

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kyle Hendricks	2.1316	3.6033 (1372.4)	3.6585 (1459.7)	3.5992 (1432.7)	3.6075 (1311.7)
Alfredo Simon	9.3580	4.5919 (1309.9)	4.1573 (1421.0)	4.2788 (1377.9)	4.9143 (1239.3)
Justin Verlander	3.0439	3.8382 (1051.8)	3.8351 (1104.8)	3.7886 (1083.7)	3.8884 (1019.7)
Aaron Blair	7.5857	4.1281 (1000.3)	4.2664 (935.4)	4.1836 (954.7)	4.0719 (1046.2)
Rick Porcello	3.1480	4.0056 (1093.0)	4.1622 (1287.4)	3.8355 (1017.3)	4.1797 (1171.7)
Chris Devenski	2.1600	5.1609 (1375.5)	4.2664 (1035.8)	4.4856 (1134.7)	5.8731 (1631.1)
Michael Fulmer	3.0566	4.6642 (1279.8)	4.2664 (1062.4)	4.3937 (1159.8)	4.9448 (1405.9)
Aníbal Sánchez	5.8696	3.8996 (1068.5)	4.0388 (934.1)	3.8621 (1036.7)	3.9375 (1100.4)
James Shields	5.8459	3.6968 (1462.1)	3.5880 (1500.6)	3.8549 (1262.2)	3.5386 (1662.5)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tanner Roark	3.9297	2.8286	1258.2
2	Aaron Sanchez	4.1647	3.0000	1212.8
3	Ervin Santana	4.4336	3.3750	1068.9
4	Rich Hill	4.1667	2.1208	1060.8
5	Steven Wright	4.5644	3.3319	1051.5
6	J.A. Happ	4.1284	3.1846	1046.2
7	Tyler Duffey	4.3816	6.4286	999.2
8	José Berríos	4.1399	8.0229	987.0
9	Sonny Gray	3.4690	5.6923	957.9
10	Jerad Eickhoff	4.3856	3.6486	898.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tyler Duffey	3.5762	6.4286	1442.4
2	Adam Wainwright	2.8247	4.6208	1155.1
3	Sonny Gray	3.0687	5.6923	1132.9
4	Shelby Miller	3.3768	6.1485	1076.1
5	Edinson Volquez	3.7287	5.3715	1032.5
6	Noah Syndergaard	3.4964	2.5971	990.7
7	Jon Lester	3.2495	2.4424	986.5
8	Zack Greinke	2.4723	4.3676	975.9
9	Tanner Roark	3.4966	2.8286	940.8
10	José Berríos	4.2664	8.0229	934.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tanner Roark	4.1680	2.8286	1534.6
2	Aaron Sanchez	4.4116	3.0000	1475.0
3	Steven Wright	4.5472	3.3319	1096.0
4	Ervin Santana	4.3582	3.3750	1076.1
5	Tyler Duffey	4.1891	6.4286	1063.3
6	Rich Hill	4.0523	2.1208	1047.9
7	Marco Estrada	4.3968	3.4773	994.1
8	José Berríos	4.0983	8.0229	974.8
9	Jon Lester	3.1673	2.4424	939.5
10	J.A. Happ	3.8847	3.1846	919.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Dan Straily	4.9800	3.7631	1189.3
2	J.A. Happ	4.3784	3.1846	1176.9
3	Ian Kennedy	4.8013	3.6797	1150.3
4	Jerad Eickhoff	4.7718	3.6486	1141.8
5	Sonny Gray	3.1991	5.6923	1141.8
6	Rich Hill	4.2857	2.1208	1075.4
7	Ervin Santana	4.5106	3.3750	1062.4
8	CC Sabathia	4.9813	3.9072	1043.5
9	Adam Wainwright	3.1154	4.6208	1033.9
10	Shelby Miller	3.6486	6.1485	1019.0

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Kenta Maeda	4.2664	3.3744	3.4839	869.8	186.9	682.9
2	Adam Morgan	4.1538	5.3403	6.0353	734.7	164.6	570.1
3	Jeff Samardzija	4.1214	3.3673	3.8066	619.4	57.1	562.3
4	Doug Fister	3.5279	4.2428	4.6414	530.6	21.9	508.7
5	Tyler Duffey	3.5762	4.3816	6.4286	1442.4	999.2	443.2
6	Tyler Wilson	3.7025	4.9720	5.2660	468.3	31.7	436.6
7	Max Scherzer	3.0987	2.6953	2.9562	518.5	98.8	419.6
8	Madison Bumgarner	3.0745	2.7210	2.7397	699.6	320.7	378.9
9	Adam Wainwright	2.8247	3.3203	4.6208	1155.1	787.8	367.4
10	Yovani Gallardo	3.6337	4.3849	5.4153	709.7	347.1	362.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tanner Roark	4.1680	3.9297	2.8286	1534.6	1258.2	276.4
2	Aaron Sanchez	4.4116	4.1647	3.0000	1475.0	1212.8	262.2
3	Jake Arrieta	2.9511	2.7554	3.1014	242.6	19.5	223.2
4	Pat Dean	4.1551	4.8946	6.2822	501.5	305.1	196.3
5	John Lackey	3.6819	3.5128	3.3451	592.6	402.5	190.1
6	Doug Fister	4.4539	4.2428	4.6414	208.7	21.9	186.8
7	Marco Estrada	4.3968	4.2276	3.4773	994.1	810.3	183.8
8	Luis Perdomo	4.4519	4.8128	5.7068	529.3	346.6	182.6
9	Kenta Maeda	3.5437	3.3744	3.4839	369.0	186.9	182.1
10	Zach Davies	4.3080	4.1328	3.9673	542.9	365.5	177.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Dan Straily	4.9800	4.1397	3.7631	1189.3	591.7	597.7
2	Ian Kennedy	4.8013	4.2986	3.6797	1150.3	809.2	341.1
3	CC Sabathia	4.9813	4.5255	3.9072	1043.5	759.3	284.2
4	Daniel Mengden	4.2664	5.0040	6.5000	647.0	373.7	273.3
5	Chris Devenski	5.8731	5.1609	2.1600	1631.1	1375.5	255.6
6	Adam Wainwright	3.1154	3.3203	4.6208	1033.9	787.8	246.1
7	Jerad Eickhoff	4.7718	4.3856	3.6486	1141.8	898.1	243.7
8	Junior Guerra	4.2228	3.6555	2.8110	834.7	597.8	236.9
9	Doug Fister	4.0299	4.2428	4.6414	254.6	21.9	232.6
10	Matt Moore	4.4587	4.0963	4.0840	552.6	320.7	231.9

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Julio Teheran	1.0532	1.2316 (179.9)	1.2259 (180.3)	1.2450 (199.9)	1.2183 (160.6)
Kyle Hendricks	0.9789	1.2178 (221.8)	1.1882 (204.4)	1.2205 (233.6)	1.2150 (210.7)
Justin Verlander	1.0015	1.2456 (273.6)	1.2715 (302.6)	1.2376 (278.2)	1.2536 (269.9)
Rick Porcello	1.0090	1.2554 (271.8)	1.2973 (314.6)	1.2408 (270.3)	1.2705 (274.4)
Tim Lincecum	2.3739	1.3924 (184.5)	1.3724 (187.3)	1.4157 (177.3)	1.3690 (191.6)
Chris Devenski	0.9138	1.4342 (236.3)	1.3394 (200.2)	1.3589 (210.9)	1.5136 (263.8)
Jeremy Hellickson	1.1534	1.3009 (159.3)	1.3372 (192.1)	1.2708 (146.1)	1.3317 (173.7)
Michael Fulmer	1.1195	1.3860 (210.5)	1.3394 (184.4)	1.3434 (191.4)	1.4302 (231.3)
Alfredo Simon	2.0455	1.3803 (180.7)	1.3109 (199.5)	1.3421 (188.2)	1.4197 (172.5)
James Shields	1.5963	1.2340 (249.4)	1.2680 (216.4)	1.2562 (220.4)	1.2118 (277.6)
Patrick Corbin	1.5610	1.2099 (204.9)	1.2440 (176.6)	1.1922 (208.1)	1.2280 (200.7)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	1.4418	1.1667	263.8
2	Rich Hill	1.3929	0.9970	199.6
3	Jerad Eickhoff	1.3178	1.1605	175.3
4	Adam Wainwright	1.1689	1.4044	149.5
5	Shelby Miller	1.2905	1.6733	149.0
6	José Berríos	1.2910	1.8686	145.8
7	J.A. Happ	1.2924	1.1692	144.9
8	Clayton Kershaw	0.9302	0.7248	143.8
9	Francisco Liriano	1.2295	1.4847	143.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kenta Maeda	1.3394	1.1385	190.5
2	Adam Wainwright	1.1147	1.4044	190.2
3	Ricky Nolasco	1.4037	1.2445	183.3
4	John Lackey	1.2357	1.0566	182.7
5	Jon Lester	1.1707	1.0164	174.6
6	Jorge De La Rosa	1.3049	1.6418	166.8
7	Dan Straily	1.3313	1.1864	166.4
8	J.A. Happ	1.3104	1.1692	164.2
9	Chris Young	1.1907	1.6579	163.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	1.4760	1.1667	301.2
2	Rich Hill	1.3471	0.9970	185.3
3	Marco Estrada	1.2990	1.1193	181.9
4	Tanner Roark	1.2987	1.1714	170.3
5	John Lackey	1.2001	1.0566	161.1
6	Clayton Kershaw	0.9442	0.7248	158.5
7	Sean Manaea	1.3762	1.1889	154.0
8	Jerad Eickhoff	1.2744	1.1605	150.7
9	Steven Wright	1.3943	1.2447	145.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	1.4074	1.1667	227.1
2	Rich Hill	1.4405	0.9970	215.2
3	Jerad Eickhoff	1.3624	1.1605	201.7
4	Dan Straily	1.3733	1.1864	185.1
5	Adam Wainwright	1.1410	1.4044	183.4
6	Jameson Taillon	1.4776	1.1154	171.0
7	Danny Duffy	1.3200	1.1410	165.0
8	J.A. Happ	1.3268	1.1692	162.6
9	Shelby Miller	1.2757	1.6733	161.4

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Kenta Maeda	1.3394	1.1610	1.1385	190.5	58.2	132.3
2	Adam Morgan	1.2692	1.4426	1.5000	84.0	0.7	83.3
3	Luis Perdomo	1.3394	1.4699	1.5886	121.9	39.6	82.3
4	Jeff Samardzija	1.2354	1.1496	1.2000	83.3	7.0	76.3
5	Chris Sale	1.0984	1.0328	1.0368	115.0	49.8	65.2
6	Dan Straily	1.3313	1.2558	1.1864	166.4	101.6	64.8
7	Archie Bradley	1.3716	1.4649	1.5600	78.7	23.1	55.5
8	Seunghwan Oh	1.3394	1.1695	0.9163	152.8	97.7	55.2
9	Matt Andriese	1.3019	1.2045	1.2219	76.4	21.9	54.6
10	Chris Young	1.1907	1.3290	1.6579	163.2	109.6	53.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Marco Estrada	1.2990	1.2497	1.1193	181.9	136.8	45.1
2	Tanner Roark	1.2987	1.2612	1.1714	170.3	127.1	43.2
3	Aaron Sanchez	1.4760	1.4418	1.1667	301.2	263.8	37.3
4	Mike Leake	1.3092	1.2772	1.3189	47.1	13.0	34.1
5	Jake Arrieta	1.1059	1.0762	1.0845	74.2	40.2	34.0
6	Johnny Cueto	1.1368	1.1118	1.0926	102.3	68.8	33.5
7	Zach Davies	1.3841	1.3481	1.2490	141.2	107.7	33.5
8	Vance Worley	1.2210	1.3077	1.3731	29.3	2.4	26.9
9	John Lackey	1.2001	1.1792	1.0566	161.1	135.7	25.3
10	Archie Bradley	1.4122	1.4649	1.5600	48.4	23.1	25.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Dan Straily	1.3733	1.2558	1.1864	185.1	101.6	83.5
2	Daniel Mengden	1.3394	1.4960	1.6111	74.7	18.7	56.0
3	Matt Moore	1.4037	1.3316	1.2908	133.8	83.5	50.3
4	Junior Guerra	1.3649	1.2673	1.1260	140.6	98.5	42.1
5	Ian Kennedy	1.3619	1.2989	1.2215	153.2	111.5	41.7
6	CC Sabathia	1.3877	1.3304	1.3191	88.6	53.9	34.7
7	Adam Wainwright	1.1410	1.1689	1.4044	183.4	149.5	33.9
8	Sonny Gray	1.1801	1.2316	1.4957	139.0	106.1	32.9
9	Danny Duffy	1.3200	1.2633	1.1410	165.0	132.5	32.6
10	Hisashi Iwakuma	1.1106	1.1372	1.3266	141.5	109.2	32.3