2012 Projection Evaluation

Summary

Batting

System PA wOBA SO BB HR R RBI SB BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF wOBA ERA SO BB HR W L SV HLD BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Juan Diaz 643 17 626.0
2 L.J. Hoes 623 1 622.0
3 Eury Pérez 593 5 588.0
4 Clint Robinson 590 4 586.0
5 Xavier Avery 692 107 585.0
6 Kristopher Negrón 581 5 576.0
7 Kevin Mattison 566 5 561.0
8 Ryan Jackson 577 18 559.0
9 Adam Eaton 658 103 555.0
10 Brett Gardner 580 37 542.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Gardner 551 37 514.0
2 Bryce Harper 100 597 497.0
3 Norichika Aoki 100 588 488.0
4 Kosuke Fukudome 535 51 484.0
5 Álex González 550 89 461.0
6 Jason Bartlett 555 98 457.0
7 Aubrey Huff 545 95 450.0
8 Yoenis Cespedes 100 540 440.0
9 Lance Berkman 530 97 433.0
10 Hideki Matsui 533 103 430.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Gardner 621 37 583.6
2 Lance Berkman 582 97 484.6
3 Jason Bartlett 561 98 462.9
4 Álex González 548 89 458.5
5 Carl Crawford 578 125 453.2
6 Mat Gamel 522 75 447.4
7 Danny Valencia 598 161 437.1
8 Hideki Matsui 537 103 434.4
9 Aubrey Huff 520 95 425.4
10 Troy Tulowitzki 626 203 422.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 681 16 665.0
2 Juan Diaz 643 17 626.0
3 Lars Anderson 632 8 624.0
4 Charlie Culberson 646 23 623.0
5 Blake Tekotte 637 15 622.0
6 L.J. Hoes 623 1 622.0
7 Che-Hsuan Lin 628 12 616.0
8 Brandon Allen 629 22 607.0
9 Carlos Triunfel 628 24 604.0
10 Conor Gillaspie 616 20 596.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yoenis Cespedes 100 612 540 440.0 71.5 368.5
2 Norichika Aoki 100 450 588 488.0 138.2 349.8
3 Jason Kipnis 282 622 672 390.0 50.0 340.0
4 Zack Cozart 222 547 600 378.0 53.5 324.5
5 Bryce Harper 100 409 597 497.0 187.6 309.4
6 Jose Altuve 330 649 630 300.0 19.2 280.8
7 Yonder Alonso 258 531 619 361.0 88.4 272.6
8 Paul Goldschmidt 295 620 587 292.0 32.9 259.1
9 Dustin Ackley 400 680 668 268.0 11.7 256.3
10 Alejandro De Aza 290 544 585 295.0 40.7 254.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 137 404 416 279.4 11.7 267.7
2 Brandon Moss 6 269 296 290.1 26.6 263.6
3 Matt Carpenter 87 329 340 253.2 11.1 242.1
4 Luis Alfonso Cruz 3 234 296 292.6 61.8 230.8
5 Todd Frazier 150 368 465 314.7 96.8 217.8
6 Luis Valbuena 71 318 303 232.0 15.5 216.5
7 Joaquin Arias 100 380 344 244.0 36.0 208.0
8 Norichika Aoki 242 450 588 345.5 138.2 207.2
9 Martín Maldonado 1 206 256 255.0 49.5 205.5
10 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 77 279 314 237.1 34.5 202.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 681 360 16 665.0 344.4 320.6
2 Lars Anderson 632 318 8 624.0 310.4 313.6
3 Darin Mastroianni 627 314 186 441.0 128.5 312.5
4 Charlie Culberson 646 343 23 623.0 319.9 303.1
5 Eduardo Escobar 629 326 146 483.0 180.1 302.9
6 Blake Tekotte 637 340 15 622.0 324.6 297.4
7 Che-Hsuan Lin 628 334 12 616.0 321.9 294.1
8 Carlos Triunfel 628 334 24 604.0 309.9 294.1
9 Conor Gillaspie 616 324 20 596.0 303.7 292.3
10 Brett Pill 639 351 114 525.0 237.2 287.8

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alex Rios 0.3629
0.3113
(34.5)
0.3042
(41.3)
0.3162
(33.5)
0.3064
(36.2)
Brandon Moss 0.4039
0.3014
(31.0)
0.2919
(34.9)
0.3100
(29.5)
0.2927
(32.9)
Chase Headley 0.3785
0.3285
(36.5)
0.3242
(42.1)
0.3281
(39.2)
0.3289
(34.7)
Ian Desmond 0.3629
0.2965
(37.5)
0.2962
(39.8)
0.2985
(38.4)
0.2946
(37.4)
Andrew McCutchen 0.4084
0.3543
(37.9)
0.3522
(41.8)
0.3537
(40.6)
0.3549
(36.0)
Austin Jackson 0.3703
0.3077
(40.0)
0.3122
(39.5)
0.3115
(39.8)
0.3039
(41.0)
Yadier Molina 0.3756
0.3203
(32.4)
0.3270
(30.7)
0.3186
(35.3)
0.3219
(30.3)
Dustin Ackley 0.2777
0.3298
(33.3)
0.3281
(29.7)
0.3268
(29.0)
0.3329
(36.8)
Aaron Hill 0.3781
0.3196
(40.6)
0.3103
(49.3)
0.3171
(44.6)
0.3221
(37.5)
Buster Posey 0.4096
0.3527
(36.0)
0.3435
(43.9)
0.3567
(35.7)
0.3488
(37.1)
Edwin Encarnación 0.4015
0.3418
(39.8)
0.3325
(48.2)
0.3424
(41.7)
0.3413
(38.8)
Mike Trout 0.4107
0.3249
(56.2)
0.3079
(69.4)
0.3215
(60.6)
0.3282
(52.7)
Melky Cabrera 0.3886
0.3260
(32.5)
0.3263
(34.2)
0.3238
(35.3)
0.3282
(30.3)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Hosmer 0.3520 0.2939 33.4
2 Adrián González 0.3967 0.3481 31.7
3 Carlos Ruiz 0.3296 0.4020 31.4
4 Adam LaRoche 0.3185 0.3644 31.2
5 Albert Pujols 0.4145 0.3676 29.9
6 Justin Ruggiano 0.2989 0.3879 29.2
7 Casey Kotchman 0.3297 0.2705 28.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Young 0.3536 0.2987 31.9
2 Ryan Ludwick 0.3150 0.3746 30.9
3 Michael Saunders 0.2701 0.3199 30.8
4 Chris Davis 0.3072 0.3553 30.3
5 Yoenis Cespedes 0.3206 0.3706 30.2
6 Jonathan Lucroy 0.3019 0.3775 28.2
7 Tyler Colvin 0.3026 0.3586 28.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Albert Pujols 0.4233 0.3676 33.5
2 Adrián González 0.4026 0.3481 33.4
3 Carlos Ruiz 0.3284 0.4020 33.4
4 Adam LaRoche 0.3190 0.3644 33.0
5 Robinson Canó 0.3599 0.3985 30.9
6 Justin Ruggiano 0.2975 0.3879 30.7
7 A.J. Pierzynski 0.3044 0.3537 28.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Hosmer 0.3577 0.2939 38.1
2 Adam LaRoche 0.3179 0.3644 30.1
3 Carlos Ruiz 0.3308 0.4020 30.0
4 Derek Jeter 0.3053 0.3447 29.2
5 Adrián González 0.3909 0.3481 29.2
6 Casey Kotchman 0.3278 0.2705 28.6
7 Justin Ruggiano 0.3004 0.3879 28.0

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Pedro Álvarez 0.3058 0.3356 0.3387 22.7 3.1 19.6
2 Paul Goldschmidt 0.3334 0.3608 0.3654 22.3 4.0 18.3
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.3612 0.3922 0.4104 27.6 10.2 17.4
4 Anthony Rizzo 0.2900 0.3316 0.3501 24.3 7.6 16.7
5 Chris Davis 0.3072 0.3294 0.3553 30.3 15.8 14.5
6 Mike Trout 0.3079 0.3249 0.4107 69.4 56.2 13.2
7 Brian Bogusevic 0.3250 0.2931 0.2722 18.9 7.5 11.4
8 John Mayberry Jr. 0.3455 0.3184 0.3043 16.9 5.7 11.2
9 Michael Saunders 0.2701 0.2860 0.3199 30.8 20.0 10.8
10 Jay Bruce 0.3473 0.3611 0.3584 10.8 0.3 10.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brian Dozier 0.3206 0.2913 0.2618 18.1 9.3 8.8
2 Joe Mather 0.3206 0.2867 0.2547 14.6 7.2 7.4
3 Alex Gordon 0.3454 0.3517 0.3587 13.7 6.7 7.0
4 Gorkys Hernández 0.3206 0.2766 0.2546 10.4 3.4 7.0
5 Scott Podsednik 0.3206 0.2878 0.2855 6.4 0.0 6.3
6 Freddy Galvis 0.3206 0.2856 0.2633 10.3 4.0 6.3
7 Ike Davis 0.3705 0.3564 0.3329 18.7 12.4 6.2
8 Jason Heyward 0.3715 0.3593 0.3507 9.9 4.2 5.7
9 Brandon Barnes 0.3206 0.2645 0.2299 8.9 3.4 5.5
10 Jason Kubel 0.3452 0.3510 0.3558 9.3 4.0 5.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Josh Reddick 0.2952 0.3117 0.3301 23.5 13.8 9.7
2 Brian Bixler 0.3206 0.2692 0.2546 6.3 1.2 5.1
3 Rod Barajas 0.3126 0.3005 0.2782 12.4 7.3 5.1
4 Eric Hosmer 0.3577 0.3520 0.2939 38.1 33.4 4.7
5 Chris Davis 0.3190 0.3294 0.3553 20.4 15.8 4.6
6 José Reyes 0.3542 0.3501 0.3371 12.2 7.8 4.4
7 Jordan Pacheco 0.2989 0.3098 0.3311 16.3 11.8 4.4
8 Brett Lawrie 0.3553 0.3494 0.3180 20.0 15.6 4.4
9 Paul Goldschmidt 0.3512 0.3608 0.3654 8.3 4.0 4.3
10 Ryan Braun 0.3795 0.3879 0.4194 27.0 22.8 4.2

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Bryan LaHair 0.3263
0.2328
(31.5)
0.2009
(43.6)
0.2331
(30.1)
0.2324
(32.9)
David Wright 0.1672
0.2138
(38.3)
0.2229
(44.5)
0.2135
(40.4)
0.2142
(36.3)
Cody Ransom 0.3865
0.2716
(29.4)
0.2110
(46.5)
0.1920
(50.9)
0.2716
(30.4)
Jason Kipnis 0.1622
0.2054
(36.1)
0.1986
(31.6)
0.2018
(36.1)
0.2090
(36.4)
Curtis Granderson 0.2851
0.2269
(32.6)
0.2202
(37.1)
0.2271
(30.0)
0.2266
(35.0)
Prince Fielder 0.1217
0.1742
(43.5)
0.1771
(45.6)
0.1692
(42.5)
0.1791
(44.6)
Jason Kubel 0.2644
0.1875
(37.9)
0.1969
(32.5)
0.1884
(35.4)
0.1866
(40.3)
Josh Hamilton 0.2547
0.1791
(41.4)
0.1797
(40.9)
0.1781
(39.8)
0.1800
(42.9)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2697 0.2215 34.5
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.2503 0.1685 34.0
3 Adam LaRoche 0.2532 0.2133 32.6
4 Logan Forsythe 0.2446 0.1629 32.3
5 Jayson Werth 0.2406 0.1657 29.4
6 Carlos Beltrán 0.1430 0.2003 28.9
7 Mark Reynolds 0.3377 0.2955 28.4
8 A.J. Ellis 0.1456 0.2119 28.1
9 A.J. Pierzynski 0.0871 0.1500 27.2
10 Mike Moustakas 0.1473 0.2020 27.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Norichika Aoki 0.1920 0.0935 64.2
2 Michael Brantley 0.1524 0.0920 43.3
3 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.1920 0.3121 34.4
4 Marco Scutaro 0.1104 0.0717 33.7
5 Lucas Duda 0.1795 0.2614 32.7
6 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 0.1757 0.1106 31.5
7 Michael Young 0.1443 0.1075 30.9
8 Yonder Alonso 0.2016 0.1632 30.4
9 Brett Jackson 0.1920 0.4155 30.2
10 Jose Altuve 0.1545 0.1175 30.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.2480 0.1685 34.4
2 Adam LaRoche 0.2496 0.2133 32.6
3 Lucas Duda 0.1782 0.2614 31.7
4 Logan Forsythe 0.2387 0.1629 31.5
5 Jayson Werth 0.2423 0.1657 31.2
6 Michael Young 0.1392 0.1075 29.8
7 Michael Brantley 0.1235 0.0920 27.8
8 Joaquin Arias 0.1920 0.1279 26.9
9 Mike Moustakas 0.1441 0.2020 26.9
10 Carlos Beltrán 0.1429 0.2003 26.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2902 0.2215 44.6
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.2527 0.1685 33.7
3 Logan Forsythe 0.2505 0.1629 33.2
4 Mark Reynolds 0.3495 0.2955 32.9
5 Adam LaRoche 0.2567 0.2133 32.8
6 Bryce Harper 0.2463 0.2010 31.4
7 Carlos Beltrán 0.1432 0.2003 30.9
8 A.J. Pierzynski 0.0854 0.1500 29.8
9 A.J. Ellis 0.1463 0.2119 29.4
10 Brett Lawrie 0.2052 0.1604 27.9

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Norichika Aoki 0.1920 0.0893 0.0935 64.2 3.7 60.5
2 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.1920 0.2722 0.3121 34.4 9.2 25.1
3 Jordan Pacheco 0.1613 0.1160 0.1208 25.8 2.9 22.9
4 Anthony Gose 0.1920 0.2994 0.3122 20.7 0.4 20.3
5 Brandon Moss 0.1942 0.2585 0.3041 29.4 10.4 19.0
6 Justin Maxwell 0.2394 0.3334 0.3239 26.0 7.1 18.9
7 Adam Dunn 0.2939 0.3220 0.3421 24.3 6.2 18.2
8 Joaquin Arias 0.1814 0.1289 0.1279 22.1 4.0 18.1
9 Michael Brantley 0.1524 0.1239 0.0920 43.3 25.9 17.5
10 Jose Altuve 0.1545 0.1275 0.1175 30.1 13.0 17.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Joaquin Arias 0.1920 0.1289 0.1279 26.9 4.0 22.9
2 Kevin Frandsen 0.1920 0.0905 0.0857 25.3 3.2 22.1
3 Cody Ransom 0.1920 0.2716 0.3865 50.9 29.4 21.5
4 Anthony Gose 0.1920 0.2994 0.3122 20.0 0.4 19.6
5 Andrelton Simmons 0.1920 0.0909 0.1154 16.5 2.5 14.0
6 Will Rhymes 0.1920 0.1153 0.1241 11.2 0.2 11.0
7 Ike Davis 0.2089 0.2334 0.2414 10.8 1.5 9.3
8 Scott Podsednik 0.1920 0.1501 0.1620 9.5 0.3 9.2
9 Irving Falu 0.1920 0.0955 0.0989 9.8 0.7 9.1
10 Pedro Álvarez 0.2573 0.2762 0.3072 21.0 12.0 9.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brandon Crawford 0.2490 0.2167 0.1996 27.0 13.2 13.8
2 Ike Davis 0.2579 0.2334 0.2414 13.9 1.5 12.4
3 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2902 0.2697 0.2215 44.6 34.5 10.1
4 Colby Rasmus 0.2600 0.2434 0.2384 18.0 9.7 8.3
5 Casper Wells 0.3163 0.2885 0.2532 22.2 14.5 7.7
6 Derek Norris 0.3284 0.2930 0.2845 11.9 4.4 7.4
7 Justin Maxwell 0.3569 0.3334 0.3239 14.2 7.1 7.1
8 Bryce Harper 0.2463 0.2312 0.2010 31.4 24.3 7.1
9 Chris Davis 0.3057 0.2901 0.3007 6.9 0.0 6.8
10 Zack Cozart 0.1918 0.1780 0.1883 6.4 0.1 6.3

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Miguel Montero 0.1274
0.0876
(24.5)
0.0843
(27.0)
0.0883
(25.7)
0.0870
(23.7)
Dan Uggla 0.1492
0.1053
(29.5)
0.1087
(28.0)
0.1077
(29.8)
0.1030
(29.7)
Robinson Canó 0.0875
0.0620
(19.9)
0.0641
(19.1)
0.0637
(20.6)
0.0603
(19.6)
Austin Jackson 0.1086
0.0800
(19.5)
0.0779
(21.4)
0.0822
(19.8)
0.0777
(19.6)
Alexei Ramirez 0.0258
0.0637
(21.7)
0.0682
(23.9)
0.0667
(21.9)
0.0607
(21.1)
Joey Votto 0.1979
0.1456
(26.3)
0.1362
(31.2)
0.1433
(28.7)
0.1479
(24.2)
Adrián González 0.0614
0.1225
(39.7)
0.1248
(40.6)
0.1272
(41.1)
0.1177
(37.9)
Miguel Cabrera 0.0947
0.1364
(27.0)
0.1297
(21.6)
0.1343
(23.6)
0.1385
(29.9)
Joe Mauer 0.1404
0.1129
(19.6)
0.1059
(24.7)
0.1161
(19.2)
0.1096
(20.4)
Edwin Encarnación 0.1304
0.0899
(28.0)
0.0857
(31.4)
0.0929
(27.8)
0.0868
(28.7)
Albert Pujols 0.0776
0.1276
(31.5)
0.1237
(28.2)
0.1346
(34.4)
0.1205
(28.1)
Yunel Escobar 0.0576
0.0995
(23.7)
0.0982
(22.3)
0.1019
(23.5)
0.0972
(23.5)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Heyward 0.1330 0.0891 26.7
2 B.J. Upton 0.1154 0.0711 26.1
3 Ian Kinsler 0.1113 0.0821 19.2
4 David Freese 0.0709 0.1005 18.5
5 Jemile Weeks 0.0656 0.0978 18.0
6 Marco Scutaro 0.0876 0.0586 17.8
7 John Buck 0.0817 0.1231 17.7
8 Jesus Montero 0.0863 0.0524 17.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Buster Posey 0.0783 0.1131 23.7
2 Marco Scutaro 0.0938 0.0586 21.3
3 Jemile Weeks 0.0606 0.0978 21.1
4 Chase Headley 0.0980 0.1230 20.3
5 John Buck 0.0774 0.1231 19.8
6 Mike Trout 0.0786 0.1049 19.3
7 Adam Dunn 0.1361 0.1618 19.3
8 Chris Carter 0.0809 0.1500 19.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Heyward 0.1350 0.0891 26.1
2 B.J. Upton 0.1174 0.0711 25.7
3 Ian Kinsler 0.1142 0.0821 19.3
4 Jemile Weeks 0.0660 0.0978 19.2
5 John Buck 0.0811 0.1231 19.0
6 David Freese 0.0735 0.1005 18.6
7 Marco Scutaro 0.0907 0.0586 18.0
8 Buster Posey 0.0897 0.1131 17.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Heyward 0.1311 0.0891 26.7
2 B.J. Upton 0.1133 0.0711 26.1
3 Derek Norris 0.1780 0.0905 20.1
4 Jesus Montero 0.0881 0.0524 19.2
5 David Freese 0.0683 0.1005 18.8
6 Ian Kinsler 0.1084 0.0821 18.6
7 Carlos Lee 0.0662 0.0943 17.9
8 Dustin Ackley 0.1157 0.0883 17.7

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 A.J. Ellis 0.0989 0.1330 0.1287 17.1 0.7 16.4
2 Adam Dunn 0.1361 0.1577 0.1618 19.3 4.6 14.7
3 Luis Alfonso Cruz 0.0788 0.0328 0.0304 13.1 0.2 13.0
4 Grégor Blanco 0.0925 0.1159 0.1126 10.9 0.2 10.7
5 Brandon Belt 0.0892 0.1242 0.1144 13.8 3.2 10.6
6 Pedro Ciriaco 0.0773 0.0235 0.0294 11.9 2.4 9.5
7 Bryce Harper 0.0815 0.0957 0.0938 9.8 0.6 9.1
8 Will Middlebrooks 0.0815 0.0482 0.0455 9.2 0.1 9.1
9 Jesus Flores 0.0810 0.0500 0.0439 9.8 0.9 8.9
10 Tyler Colvin 0.0761 0.0560 0.0465 11.6 2.9 8.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Norichika Aoki 0.1083 0.0831 0.0731 17.3 4.1 13.2
2 Joaquin Arias 0.0815 0.0316 0.0378 13.1 3.2 9.9
3 Yasmani Grandal 0.0815 0.1083 0.1372 13.9 7.2 6.7
4 Freddy Galvis 0.0815 0.0464 0.0350 8.1 1.7 6.5
5 Adeiny Hechavarría 0.0815 0.0373 0.0292 6.4 0.7 5.7
6 Bryce Harper 0.0903 0.0957 0.0938 5.5 0.6 4.9
7 Kevin Frandsen 0.0815 0.0348 0.0429 6.9 2.3 4.6
8 Scott Podsednik 0.0815 0.0617 0.0278 10.4 6.7 3.7
9 Daniel Nava 0.0815 0.0894 0.1167 13.0 9.6 3.4
10 Moisés Sierra 0.0815 0.0502 0.0510 3.9 0.6 3.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Norichika Aoki 0.0578 0.0831 0.0731 9.5 4.1 5.4
2 Derek Norris 0.1780 0.1619 0.0905 20.1 15.9 4.2
3 José Bautista 0.1766 0.1695 0.1479 11.1 7.5 3.6
4 Bryce Harper 0.1011 0.0957 0.0938 3.8 0.6 3.2
5 Miguel Cabrera 0.1385 0.1364 0.0947 29.9 27.0 2.9
6 Logan Forsythe 0.1195 0.1149 0.0800 13.5 11.2 2.3
7 Brennan Boesch 0.0784 0.0759 0.0517 12.9 10.7 2.3
8 Chris Davis 0.0622 0.0680 0.0658 2.6 0.4 2.2
9 Jesus Montero 0.0881 0.0863 0.0524 19.2 17.1 2.1
10 Chris Snyder 0.1434 0.1375 0.1279 3.8 1.7 2.1

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Miguel Montero 0.0209
0.0110
(5.9)
0.0098
(6.5)
0.0112
(5.9)
0.0109
(6.0)
Corey Hart 0.0177
0.0100
(5.1)
0.0093
(5.3)
0.0096
(5.3)
0.0103
(4.8)
Hunter Pence 0.0102
0.0018
(6.0)
0.0017
(6.0)
0.0021
(5.9)
0.0015
(6.2)
Sean Rodríguez 0.0088
0.0270
(6.1)
0.0260
(5.8)
0.0241
(5.1)
0.0300
(7.1)
Carlos Pena 0.0217
0.0113
(6.5)
0.0108
(6.6)
0.0113
(6.5)
0.0113
(6.4)
Norichika Aoki 0.0221
0.0095
(7.6)
0.0083
(8.3)
0.0069
(9.2)
0.0122
(6.0)
Carlos Ruiz 0.0380
0.0160
(9.4)
0.0148
(9.9)
0.0155
(9.7)
0.0165
(9.2)
Jason Heyward 0.0031
0.0119
(5.5)
0.0118
(5.5)
0.0116
(5.2)
0.0122
(5.8)
Jon Jay 0.0299
0.0131
(8.7)
0.0122
(9.0)
0.0117
(9.4)
0.0144
(7.9)
Kevin Youkilis 0.0334
0.0239
(5.1)
0.0222
(5.8)
0.0237
(5.2)
0.0240
(4.9)
Adam Dunn 0.0015
0.0094
(4.8)
0.0099
(5.2)
0.0096
(4.9)
0.0092
(4.8)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Colby Rasmus 0.0024 0.0112 5.8
2 Buster Posey 0.0129 0.0033 5.6
3 Alex Gordon 0.0116 0.0042 5.1
4 Justin Upton 0.0163 0.0080 5.0
5 Dan Uggla 0.0086 0.0159 4.9
6 Travis Hafner 0.0164 0.0342 4.8
7 Alejandro De Aza 0.0077 0.0154 4.7
8 Craig Gentry 0.0200 0.0372 4.7
9 Tyler Greene 0.0177 0.0030 4.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler Greene 0.0220 0.0030 6.2
2 Josh Harrison 0.0032 0.0254 6.2
3 Edwin Encarnación 0.0080 0.0171 6.0
4 Scott Moore 0.0048 0.0307 6.0
5 Alex Rodriguez 0.0087 0.0189 5.5
6 Chris Davis 0.0031 0.0125 5.4
7 Craig Gentry 0.0179 0.0372 5.3
8 Alejandro De Aza 0.0069 0.0154 5.1
9 Prince Fielder 0.0177 0.0246 4.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Daniel Nava 0.0083 0.0284 6.5
2 Buster Posey 0.0129 0.0033 5.6
3 Craig Gentry 0.0172 0.0372 5.5
4 Colby Rasmus 0.0030 0.0112 5.4
5 Alex Gordon 0.0120 0.0042 5.3
6 Scott Moore 0.0083 0.0307 5.2
7 Justin Upton 0.0161 0.0080 4.8
8 Edwin Encarnación 0.0101 0.0171 4.8
9 Prince Fielder 0.0182 0.0246 4.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Colby Rasmus 0.0017 0.0112 6.1
2 Buster Posey 0.0128 0.0033 5.6
3 Dan Uggla 0.0079 0.0159 5.2
4 Justin Upton 0.0165 0.0080 5.2
5 Jordan Pacheco 0.0161 0.0059 5.0
6 Alex Gordon 0.0113 0.0042 4.9
7 Travis Hafner 0.0162 0.0342 4.8
8 Tyler Greene 0.0178 0.0030 4.8
9 Alejandro De Aza 0.0076 0.0154 4.7

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jesus Montero 0.0082 0.0040 0.0036 2.4 0.0 2.4
2 Bryce Harper 0.0083 0.0045 0.0034 2.8 0.4 2.4
3 Josh Harrison 0.0032 0.0119 0.0254 6.2 3.8 2.3
4 Wilin Rosario 0.0084 0.0031 0.0023 2.5 0.2 2.3
5 Steve Clevenger 0.0146 0.0050 0.0000 3.1 1.0 2.1
6 Bryan LaHair 0.0085 0.0034 0.0000 3.2 1.1 2.0
7 Scott Moore 0.0048 0.0135 0.0307 6.0 4.0 2.0
8 Adam Eaton 0.0083 0.0319 0.0291 2.2 0.2 1.9
9 Pedro Ciriaco 0.0091 0.0030 0.0000 2.4 0.7 1.7
10 Darwin Barney 0.0120 0.0094 0.0051 3.9 2.3 1.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Daniel Nava 0.0083 0.0170 0.0284 6.5 3.7 2.8
2 Adam Eaton 0.0083 0.0319 0.0291 2.2 0.2 1.9
3 Kevin Frandsen 0.0083 0.0325 0.0238 3.4 1.7 1.6
4 Norichika Aoki 0.0069 0.0095 0.0221 9.2 7.6 1.6
5 Nick Johnson 0.0083 0.0235 0.0392 3.2 1.6 1.6
6 Manny Machado 0.0083 0.0019 0.0000 1.6 0.3 1.3
7 Jesus Montero 0.0063 0.0040 0.0036 1.3 0.0 1.2
8 Scott Moore 0.0083 0.0135 0.0307 5.2 4.0 1.2
9 Michael Brantley 0.0059 0.0045 0.0000 3.3 2.5 0.8
10 Craig Gentry 0.0172 0.0200 0.0372 5.5 4.7 0.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jesus Montero 0.0016 0.0040 0.0036 1.3 0.0 1.3
2 Sean Rodríguez 0.0300 0.0270 0.0088 7.1 6.1 1.0
3 Kelly Shoppach 0.0379 0.0350 0.0327 1.2 0.5 0.7
4 A.J. Ellis 0.0183 0.0170 0.0139 2.1 1.4 0.7
5 Reed Johnson 0.0364 0.0341 0.0208 4.4 3.7 0.7
6 David Freese 0.0082 0.0095 0.0123 2.5 1.8 0.7
7 Mark Trumbo 0.0047 0.0059 0.0068 1.4 0.8 0.6
8 Casper Wells 0.0195 0.0176 0.0127 2.0 1.4 0.6
9 Jamey Carroll 0.0047 0.0059 0.0074 1.7 1.0 0.6
10 Chris Denorfia 0.0025 0.0041 0.0052 1.2 0.6 0.6

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Brandon Moss 0.1186
0.0447
(21.0)
0.0270
(26.6)
0.0452
(21.1)
0.0441
(21.1)
Carlos Beltrán 0.0748
0.0424
(18.1)
0.0427
(18.8)
0.0428
(18.4)
0.0420
(18.2)
Chase Headley 0.0686
0.0264
(27.3)
0.0237
(30.2)
0.0272
(27.3)
0.0255
(27.8)
Ian Desmond 0.0623
0.0235
(19.5)
0.0233
(20.4)
0.0242
(19.6)
0.0227
(19.9)
Curtis Granderson 0.1051
0.0717
(20.8)
0.0711
(22.1)
0.0679
(23.9)
0.0754
(18.1)
Adrián González 0.0342
0.0656
(23.6)
0.0615
(19.9)
0.0656
(23.1)
0.0655
(23.7)
Edwin Encarnación 0.0923
0.0526
(23.6)
0.0511
(25.4)
0.0521
(24.4)
0.0531
(23.2)
Adam Dunn 0.1277
0.0919
(21.2)
0.0775
(31.5)
0.0874
(24.7)
0.0967
(18.1)
A.J. Pierzynski 0.0665
0.0220
(21.5)
0.0240
(21.2)
0.0230
(21.5)
0.0211
(21.9)
Josh Hamilton 0.1051
0.0579
(28.1)
0.0594
(27.9)
0.0593
(27.7)
0.0565
(28.9)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Trout 0.0322 0.0703 22.3
2 Justin Upton 0.0653 0.0387 18.6
3 Carlos Pena 0.0873 0.0597 18.4
4 Mark Reynolds 0.1073 0.0767 18.1
5 Josh Reddick 0.0402 0.0688 17.2
6 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0513 0.0926 17.1
7 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0768 0.0509 17.1
8 Albert Pujols 0.0775 0.0559 16.6
9 Andrew McCutchen 0.0391 0.0665 16.4
10 Jonny Gomes 0.0499 0.1017 16.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Davis 0.0481 0.0946 25.1
2 Pedro Álvarez 0.0458 0.0862 22.6
3 Josh Reddick 0.0346 0.0688 21.8
4 Wilin Rosario 0.0422 0.0930 20.9
5 Ike Davis 0.0476 0.0840 20.2
6 Chris Carter 0.0375 0.1159 19.9
7 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0805 0.1205 19.2
8 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0500 0.0926 18.3
9 Jason Kubel 0.0494 0.0831 18.2
10 Ryan Braun 0.0576 0.0863 18.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Trout 0.0329 0.0703 22.4
2 Justin Upton 0.0669 0.0387 19.1
3 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0487 0.0926 18.6
4 Albert Pujols 0.0796 0.0559 17.4
5 Jason Kubel 0.0505 0.0831 17.3
6 Andrew McCutchen 0.0388 0.0665 17.1
7 Carlos Pena 0.0854 0.0597 16.7
8 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0770 0.0509 16.6
9 Mark Reynolds 0.1052 0.0767 16.6
10 Jonny Gomes 0.0499 0.1017 16.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Trout 0.0316 0.0703 22.6
2 Carlos Pena 0.0893 0.0597 19.7
3 Josh Reddick 0.0366 0.0688 19.5
4 Mark Reynolds 0.1094 0.0767 19.3
5 Brett Lawrie 0.0574 0.0267 18.2
6 Justin Upton 0.0636 0.0387 17.7
7 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0767 0.0509 17.1
8 Nelson Cruz 0.0763 0.0535 16.8
9 Alex Gordon 0.0473 0.0277 16.4
10 Wilin Rosario 0.0513 0.0930 16.4

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Davis 0.0481 0.0672 0.0946 25.1 13.6 11.5
2 Pedro Álvarez 0.0458 0.0639 0.0862 22.6 11.2 11.4
3 Bryan LaHair 0.0368 0.0626 0.0737 13.4 3.0 10.3
4 Adam Dunn 0.0775 0.0919 0.1277 31.5 21.2 10.2
5 Norichika Aoki 0.0398 0.0138 0.0210 12.1 2.4 9.7
6 Donovan Solano 0.0398 0.0081 0.0085 10.4 0.9 9.6
7 Anthony Rizzo 0.0269 0.0528 0.0543 9.5 0.6 8.9
8 Mike Moustakas 0.0232 0.0359 0.0450 12.3 3.7 8.6
9 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0805 0.0963 0.1205 19.2 10.6 8.6
10 Justin Maxwell 0.0441 0.0667 0.0887 15.1 6.6 8.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Donovan Solano 0.0398 0.0081 0.0085 10.6 0.9 9.7
2 Joaquin Arias 0.0398 0.0094 0.0177 8.4 1.8 6.6
3 Scott Podsednik 0.0398 0.0102 0.0057 7.8 1.6 6.2
4 Kevin Frandsen 0.0398 0.0138 0.0112 6.5 1.2 5.3
5 Freddy Galvis 0.0398 0.0140 0.0183 4.8 0.2 4.5
6 Justin Maxwell 0.0549 0.0667 0.0887 11.1 6.6 4.4
7 Pedro Álvarez 0.0575 0.0639 0.0862 15.5 11.2 4.3
8 Will Rhymes 0.0398 0.0042 0.0093 4.5 0.3 4.2
9 Brian Dozier 0.0398 0.0114 0.0226 6.6 2.8 3.8
10 Cody Ransom 0.0398 0.0522 0.0786 10.3 6.5 3.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brett Lawrie 0.0574 0.0501 0.0267 18.2 14.2 4.0
2 Kelly Johnson 0.0532 0.0487 0.0451 6.6 3.9 2.7
3 Rod Barajas 0.0560 0.0491 0.0430 5.9 3.3 2.5
4 Jay Bruce 0.0697 0.0735 0.0825 6.1 3.7 2.4
5 Josh Reddick 0.0366 0.0402 0.0688 19.5 17.2 2.3
6 Colby Rasmus 0.0622 0.0586 0.0545 6.8 4.5 2.3
7 Yoenis Cespedes 0.0426 0.0469 0.0593 7.3 5.0 2.2
8 Jim Thome 0.0970 0.0856 0.0784 4.1 1.9 2.1
9 Chris Davis 0.0634 0.0672 0.0946 15.7 13.6 2.1
10 J.D. Martinez 0.0280 0.0328 0.0364 2.3 0.2 2.0

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Miguel Montero 0.3615
0.3011
(34.1)
0.3116
(29.8)
0.3006
(33.8)
0.3016
(34.6)
Andrew McCutchen 0.3747
0.3021
(48.3)
0.3055
(48.1)
0.2997
(49.2)
0.3045
(47.5)
Jemile Weeks 0.2500
0.3050
(28.5)
0.3303
(39.9)
0.3026
(27.9)
0.3073
(29.1)
Ike Davis 0.2464
0.3164
(41.4)
0.3182
(40.6)
0.3160
(41.8)
0.3169
(40.9)
Tyler Colvin 0.3537
0.2829
(31.6)
0.2565
(44.9)
0.2784
(33.2)
0.2874
(30.2)
Buster Posey 0.3675
0.3139
(32.2)
0.3080
(37.6)
0.3107
(33.5)
0.3171
(31.0)
Torii Hunter 0.3882
0.2948
(54.0)
0.3061
(49.2)
0.2965
(52.4)
0.2931
(55.8)
Alcides Escobar 0.3386
0.2925
(29.3)
0.2758
(42.1)
0.2899
(30.3)
0.2952
(28.4)
Danny Espinosa 0.3308
0.2837
(30.4)
0.2841
(32.2)
0.2815
(31.1)
0.2861
(29.7)
Mike Trout 0.3829
0.3078
(47.4)
0.2760
(69.7)
0.2983
(52.8)
0.3174
(42.1)
Melky Cabrera 0.3785
0.3027
(37.5)
0.3043
(38.3)
0.2984
(39.1)
0.3071
(36.0)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Hosmer 0.3164 0.2552 37.1
2 Joey Votto 0.3318 0.4043 34.0
3 Casey Kotchman 0.2891 0.2315 29.3
4 Aaron Hill 0.2729 0.3160 28.2
5 Dexter Fowler 0.3298 0.3832 27.8
6 Justin Ruggiano 0.3096 0.3969 27.6
7 Alex Gordon 0.3178 0.3564 27.2
8 Brian McCann 0.2888 0.2341 27.1
9 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2752 0.3260 27.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aaron Hill 0.2568 0.3160 41.0
2 Dustin Ackley 0.3199 0.2643 35.7
3 Justin Ruggiano 0.2921 0.3969 34.2
4 Alex Rios 0.2725 0.3225 33.4
5 Brandon Belt 0.2836 0.3510 32.8
6 Chris Nelson 0.2936 0.3711 30.0
7 Alex Gordon 0.3175 0.3564 29.7
8 Dexter Fowler 0.3295 0.3832 29.6
9 Adam Dunn 0.2939 0.2464 29.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Gordon 0.3080 0.3564 33.4
2 Joey Votto 0.3336 0.4043 32.6
3 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2640 0.3260 32.4
4 Dexter Fowler 0.3221 0.3832 31.3
5 Eric Hosmer 0.3044 0.2552 30.6
6 Aaron Hill 0.2694 0.3160 29.8
7 Justin Ruggiano 0.3023 0.3969 29.6
8 Casey Kotchman 0.2865 0.2315 28.5
9 Russell Martin 0.2767 0.2208 28.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Hosmer 0.3282 0.2552 43.4
2 Joey Votto 0.3299 0.4043 35.5
3 Derek Jeter 0.3013 0.3436 31.6
4 Jordan Pacheco 0.2838 0.3430 30.1
5 Casey Kotchman 0.2918 0.2315 29.9
6 Joe Mauer 0.3189 0.3636 28.9
7 Alex Rios 0.2784 0.3225 28.5
8 Colby Rasmus 0.3026 0.2581 27.5
9 Chris Nelson 0.2987 0.3711 27.4

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Trout 0.2760 0.3078 0.3829 69.7 47.4 22.3
2 Brandon Belt 0.2836 0.3211 0.3510 32.8 13.7 19.2
3 Michael Saunders 0.2632 0.2873 0.2961 19.4 4.3 15.1
4 Brandon Crawford 0.2632 0.2881 0.3050 20.9 7.6 13.3
5 Tyler Colvin 0.2565 0.2829 0.3537 44.9 31.6 13.3
6 Aaron Hill 0.2568 0.2729 0.3160 41.0 28.2 12.9
7 Alcides Escobar 0.2758 0.2925 0.3386 42.1 29.3 12.8
8 Jose Altuve 0.2976 0.3148 0.3181 14.3 1.5 12.8
9 Anthony Rizzo 0.2652 0.2967 0.3103 17.4 4.7 12.7
10 Dustin Ackley 0.3199 0.2982 0.2643 35.7 23.3 12.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3267 0.3146 0.2970 21.0 12.3 8.8
2 Alex Gordon 0.3080 0.3178 0.3564 33.4 27.2 6.3
3 Yasmani Grandal 0.2968 0.3224 0.3333 7.8 2.3 5.5
4 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2640 0.2752 0.3260 32.4 27.0 5.4
5 Mike Trout 0.2983 0.3078 0.3829 52.8 47.4 5.4
6 Brian Dozier 0.2968 0.2835 0.2625 12.3 7.4 4.9
7 Joe Mather 0.2968 0.2782 0.2373 14.9 10.2 4.8
8 Yunel Escobar 0.2981 0.2929 0.2694 18.7 14.8 3.9
9 Norichika Aoki 0.2895 0.3007 0.2998 4.9 1.1 3.8
10 Allen Craig 0.2941 0.3026 0.3342 19.6 15.8 3.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Derek Jeter 0.3013 0.3100 0.3436 31.6 24.2 7.3
2 Bryce Harper 0.2917 0.3011 0.3073 9.6 3.1 6.4
3 Eric Hosmer 0.3282 0.3164 0.2552 43.4 37.1 6.3
4 Jordan Pacheco 0.2838 0.2934 0.3430 30.1 24.6 5.5
5 Norichika Aoki 0.3114 0.3007 0.2998 6.6 1.1 5.5
6 Ángel Pagán 0.2970 0.3038 0.3281 20.7 15.4 5.3
7 Chipper Jones 0.2803 0.2902 0.2985 8.3 3.3 5.0
8 Grégor Blanco 0.2724 0.2819 0.3127 18.4 13.6 4.9
9 Tyler Greene 0.3052 0.2907 0.2892 5.2 0.8 4.3
10 Shin-Soo Choo 0.3204 0.3251 0.3533 22.9 18.8 4.1

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jeff Keppinger 0.2857
0.2154
(27.1)
0.2204
(27.6)
0.2146
(25.5)
0.2162
(28.7)
Miguel Montero 0.2828
0.2087
(39.3)
0.2210
(35.8)
0.2047
(39.0)
0.2127
(39.7)
Russell Martin 0.1623
0.2199
(30.6)
0.2236
(29.3)
0.2166
(31.2)
0.2232
(29.9)
Andrew McCutchen 0.2943
0.2102
(52.9)
0.2172
(52.4)
0.2065
(52.3)
0.2138
(53.5)
Jay Bruce 0.1772
0.2194
(30.1)
0.2202
(26.7)
0.2116
(28.1)
0.2273
(32.2)
Mark Trumbo 0.2548
0.2045
(26.3)
0.2023
(31.2)
0.1945
(29.5)
0.2145
(23.2)
Dexter Fowler 0.2928
0.2118
(40.1)
0.2159
(41.2)
0.2071
(40.1)
0.2165
(40.0)
Ike Davis 0.1719
0.2167
(29.3)
0.2318
(34.6)
0.2115
(28.9)
0.2222
(29.9)
Billy Butler 0.2720
0.2255
(27.9)
0.2328
(27.1)
0.2174
(30.3)
0.2335
(25.6)
Torii Hunter 0.3239
0.2226
(56.0)
0.2347
(52.5)
0.2189
(55.5)
0.2262
(56.5)
Mike Trout 0.2947
0.2286
(38.7)
0.2031
(59.0)
0.2160
(43.9)
0.2413
(33.6)
Melky Cabrera 0.2890
0.2217
(31.0)
0.2255
(32.2)
0.2214
(28.8)
0.2220
(33.1)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brendan Ryan 0.2183 0.1688 25.9
2 Alex Rodriguez 0.2158 0.2695 25.5
3 Anthony Rizzo 0.1791 0.2529 25.1
4 Jonny Gomes 0.2028 0.2830 24.9
5 Adrian Beltré 0.2067 0.2485 23.8
6 Danny Espinosa 0.1904 0.2316 23.5
7 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.2001 0.2802 23.4
8 Ichiro Suzuki 0.2668 0.2373 23.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alcides Escobar 0.2175 0.2657 31.7
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.1768 0.2529 28.3
3 Zack Cozart 0.2405 0.1963 26.1
4 Jemile Weeks 0.2416 0.1901 25.9
5 Omar Infante 0.2550 0.2106 25.7
6 Ichiro Suzuki 0.2766 0.2373 25.6
7 Alex Rodriguez 0.2230 0.2695 25.0
8 Tyler Colvin 0.1739 0.2279 24.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ichiro Suzuki 0.2779 0.2373 33.6
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.1625 0.2529 29.6
3 Yoenis Cespedes 0.1839 0.2438 26.9
4 Danny Espinosa 0.1811 0.2316 26.6
5 Adrian Beltré 0.1985 0.2485 26.2
6 Brendan Ryan 0.2138 0.1688 25.9
7 Jonny Gomes 0.1954 0.2830 25.8
8 Paul Konerko 0.2079 0.2606 25.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Jeter 0.2445 0.2889 32.2
2 Eric Hosmer 0.2490 0.1995 30.1
3 Alex Rodriguez 0.2167 0.2695 27.5
4 Brendan Ryan 0.2228 0.1688 25.8
5 John Buck 0.2247 0.1645 24.3
6 Jonny Gomes 0.2105 0.2830 23.9
7 Donovan Solano 0.2174 0.2918 23.3
8 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.2069 0.2802 22.8

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Trout 0.2031 0.2286 0.2947 59.0 38.7 20.2
2 Zack Cozart 0.2405 0.2047 0.1963 26.1 8.3 17.8
3 Mike Moustakas 0.2271 0.2004 0.1910 21.7 9.1 12.6
4 Alcides Escobar 0.2175 0.2294 0.2657 31.7 20.0 11.7
5 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.2349 0.2136 0.2025 21.5 11.2 10.2
6 Dustin Ackley 0.2353 0.2139 0.2135 14.1 3.9 10.1
7 Ben Revere 0.2452 0.2572 0.2805 19.9 9.8 10.1
8 Aaron Hill 0.1926 0.2011 0.2160 16.1 6.3 9.8
9 Marco Scutaro 0.2258 0.2321 0.2521 18.5 10.0 8.5
10 Logan Forsythe 0.2049 0.2228 0.2530 17.1 8.7 8.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yoenis Cespedes 0.1839 0.2088 0.2438 26.9 15.9 11.0
2 Ichiro Suzuki 0.2779 0.2668 0.2373 33.6 23.2 10.4
3 Paul Goldschmidt 0.1881 0.2043 0.2225 14.4 7.5 6.9
4 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1724 0.1889 0.2296 23.6 17.7 6.0
5 Joe Mather 0.2223 0.2030 0.1751 13.9 8.1 5.8
6 Ángel Pagán 0.2235 0.2194 0.2233 6.7 1.0 5.7
7 Pedro Álvarez 0.1992 0.2134 0.2264 10.1 4.4 5.6
8 Brett Lawrie 0.1848 0.1994 0.2369 22.6 17.2 5.4
9 Alex Gordon 0.2070 0.2190 0.2424 18.3 12.9 5.3
10 Bryce Harper 0.2201 0.2159 0.2191 6.6 1.3 5.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Derek Jeter 0.2445 0.2527 0.2889 32.2 22.7 9.4
2 Eric Hosmer 0.2490 0.2310 0.1995 30.1 22.1 8.0
3 Chipper Jones 0.1972 0.2089 0.2277 13.3 5.9 7.3
4 Mike Moustakas 0.2163 0.2004 0.1910 16.0 9.1 6.9
5 Grégor Blanco 0.2101 0.2197 0.2474 16.5 10.1 6.4
6 Jordan Pacheco 0.2230 0.2273 0.2585 17.5 13.0 4.5
7 Colby Rasmus 0.2104 0.1988 0.1930 11.4 7.0 4.4
8 Mark Reynolds 0.2035 0.1912 0.1877 9.0 4.8 4.1
9 José Bautista 0.2019 0.1870 0.1585 17.6 13.5 4.1
10 Jose Altuve 0.2595 0.2485 0.2425 11.2 7.2 4.0

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Denard Span 0.0835
0.0472
(22.9)
0.0426
(24.0)
0.0507
(23.3)
0.0437
(22.7)
Michael Saunders 0.0866
0.0583
(17.9)
0.0526
(19.5)
0.0629
(17.6)
0.0537
(18.3)
Mike Napoli 0.0439
0.0908
(17.9)
0.0848
(16.5)
0.0965
(18.5)
0.0849
(17.1)
Aramis Ramirez 0.1075
0.0749
(23.1)
0.0665
(26.6)
0.0782
(23.6)
0.0716
(22.7)
Joey Votto 0.1588
0.0923
(33.5)
0.0925
(32.1)
0.0982
(32.7)
0.0863
(34.5)
Shin-Soo Choo 0.0993
0.0755
(19.1)
0.0707
(20.5)
0.0822
(17.3)
0.0689
(21.0)
Kevin Youkilis 0.0478
0.0937
(21.3)
0.0932
(22.5)
0.0983
(21.6)
0.0892
(21.0)
Justin Upton 0.0569
0.0919
(19.5)
0.0829
(15.6)
0.0987
(21.2)
0.0850
(17.6)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Colby Rasmus 0.0869 0.0526 18.9
2 Norichika Aoki 0.0512 0.0792 18.8
3 Anthony Rizzo 0.1121 0.0575 18.6
4 Jesus Montero 0.0848 0.0490 17.6
5 Justin Smoak 0.0759 0.0394 17.4
6 Nelson Cruz 0.0836 0.1059 16.9
7 Casey Kotchman 0.0670 0.0296 16.7
8 Buster Posey 0.0698 0.0931 16.7
9 Michael Cuddyer 0.0746 0.1119 16.3
10 Aaron Hill 0.0682 0.0880 15.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0753 0.1153 24.2
2 Brian Bogusevic 0.0900 0.0356 21.5
3 Buster Posey 0.0600 0.0931 20.9
4 Justin Ruggiano 0.0618 0.1186 18.6
5 Aaron Hill 0.0617 0.0880 18.4
6 Jason Kipnis 0.0733 0.0461 17.4
7 Jay Bruce 0.0663 0.0926 17.4
8 Danny Espinosa 0.0696 0.0941 17.0
9 Albert Pujols 0.0747 0.0986 16.8
10 Michael Cuddyer 0.0709 0.1119 16.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.1241 0.0575 21.5
2 Norichika Aoki 0.0531 0.0792 20.1
3 Colby Rasmus 0.0929 0.0526 20.1
4 Michael Cuddyer 0.0731 0.1119 18.5
5 Justin Smoak 0.0816 0.0394 18.2
6 Jesus Montero 0.0891 0.0490 17.7
7 Casey Kotchman 0.0718 0.0296 17.1
8 Nelson Cruz 0.0876 0.1059 17.0
9 Brian McCann 0.0833 0.0405 16.9
10 Michael Brantley 0.0556 0.0749 16.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Buster Posey 0.0639 0.0931 17.9
2 Norichika Aoki 0.0495 0.0792 17.6
3 Colby Rasmus 0.0807 0.0526 17.5
4 Albert Pujols 0.0728 0.0986 17.4
5 Jesus Montero 0.0805 0.0490 17.3
6 Nelson Cruz 0.0796 0.1059 16.9
7 Jay Bruce 0.0668 0.0926 16.4
8 Casey Kotchman 0.0623 0.0296 16.3
9 Justin Smoak 0.0701 0.0394 16.3
10 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0886 0.1153 15.7

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0753 0.0987 0.1153 24.2 12.1 12.1
2 Brandon Belt 0.0597 0.0865 0.0894 14.6 3.3 11.3
3 Chris Carter 0.0519 0.0939 0.0984 12.4 2.2 10.2
4 Todd Frazier 0.0663 0.0891 0.0855 9.5 0.2 9.3
5 Mike Moustakas 0.0644 0.0865 0.0802 10.4 1.4 9.1
6 Brian Bogusevic 0.0900 0.0711 0.0356 21.5 12.7 8.8
7 Zack Cozart 0.0570 0.0742 0.0753 11.8 3.1 8.7
8 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0875 0.1075 0.1111 12.4 3.8 8.6
9 Marco Scutaro 0.0699 0.0630 0.0549 9.4 2.8 6.6
10 Jarrod Dyson 0.0633 0.0464 0.0329 9.6 3.1 6.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cody Ransom 0.0671 0.0866 0.1085 14.0 7.3 6.7
2 Josh Reddick 0.0920 0.0791 0.0670 11.4 5.4 6.0
3 Daniel Nava 0.0671 0.0807 0.1040 14.3 8.6 5.6
4 Mike Moustakas 0.0975 0.0865 0.0802 5.6 1.4 4.3
5 Scott Podsednik 0.0671 0.0448 0.0405 4.0 0.1 3.9
6 Curtis Granderson 0.0776 0.0678 0.0492 13.9 10.0 3.9
7 Pedro Álvarez 0.0974 0.0872 0.0786 6.2 2.6 3.6
8 Travis Ishikawa 0.0671 0.0833 0.1081 8.6 5.0 3.5
9 Jason Heyward 0.0886 0.0793 0.0728 5.0 1.6 3.4
10 Brian Dozier 0.0671 0.0536 0.0425 5.6 2.4 3.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yoenis Cespedes 0.0487 0.0612 0.0685 10.7 6.1 4.6
2 Marco Scutaro 0.0656 0.0630 0.0549 7.2 2.8 4.4
3 Josh Willingham 0.0750 0.0856 0.0860 6.8 2.7 4.1
4 Dan Uggla 0.0623 0.0728 0.0855 14.7 10.6 4.1
5 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0957 0.1075 0.1111 7.8 3.8 4.0
6 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0886 0.0987 0.1153 15.7 12.1 3.6
7 Melky Cabrera 0.0747 0.0719 0.0639 5.3 2.0 3.4
8 Mark Reynolds 0.0772 0.0872 0.0939 9.0 5.7 3.3
9 Chris Carter 0.0781 0.0939 0.0984 5.3 2.2 3.1
10 Danny Espinosa 0.0709 0.0792 0.0941 15.4 12.5 2.9

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Starling Marte 0.0517
0.0159
(6.6)
0.0074
(8.1)
0.0115
(7.3)
0.0204
(5.9)
Alex Rios 0.0162
0.0060
(6.9)
0.0049
(7.4)
0.0056
(6.7)
0.0064
(7.0)
Bryce Harper 0.0227
0.0087
(8.7)
0.0074
(9.3)
0.0084
(8.5)
0.0089
(8.9)
Ángel Pagán 0.0296
0.0171
(8.6)
0.0150
(9.8)
0.0169
(8.3)
0.0173
(8.8)
Gerardo Parra 0.0065
0.0206
(5.9)
0.0193
(5.4)
0.0192
(5.5)
0.0221
(6.2)
Brett Lawrie 0.0075
0.0228
(7.9)
0.0198
(6.5)
0.0231
(8.4)
0.0226
(7.5)
Curtis Granderson 0.0109
0.0201
(5.9)
0.0191
(5.4)
0.0191
(5.7)
0.0211
(6.2)
Todd Frazier 0.0197
0.0062
(6.6)
0.0055
(6.7)
0.0043
(7.1)
0.0080
(6.0)
Dustin Ackley 0.0042
0.0164
(7.8)
0.0184
(9.3)
0.0144
(6.8)
0.0184
(8.7)
Daniel Descalso 0.0236
0.0084
(6.7)
0.0105
(5.7)
0.0068
(7.1)
0.0100
(6.3)
Quintin Berry 0.0278
0.0074
(6.9)
0.0074
(6.8)
0.0074
(6.7)
0.0074
(7.1)
Aaron Hill 0.0120
0.0036
(5.9)
0.0025
(6.5)
0.0028
(6.1)
0.0045
(5.8)
Orlando Hudson 0.0383
0.0100
(8.2)
0.0118
(7.5)
0.0087
(8.3)
0.0112
(8.0)
Elvis Andrus 0.0164
0.0078
(6.5)
0.0085
(5.8)
0.0082
(5.7)
0.0074
(7.2)
Melky Cabrera 0.0256
0.0091
(8.5)
0.0064
(9.7)
0.0079
(8.8)
0.0104
(8.2)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Kipnis 0.0172 0.0084 5.6
2 Danny Espinosa 0.0141 0.0051 5.6
3 Mike Aviles 0.0103 0.0000 5.3
4 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0147 0.0037 5.2
5 Jamey Carroll 0.0126 0.0024 5.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Trout 0.0052 0.0202 9.7
2 Tyler Colvin 0.0174 0.0340 7.6
3 Shane Victorino 0.0239 0.0136 6.7
4 Starlin Castro 0.0142 0.0223 5.8
5 Stephen Drew 0.0224 0.0048 5.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Bourn 0.0130 0.0215 5.8
2 Jamey Carroll 0.0130 0.0024 5.7
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0149 0.0037 5.6
4 Tyler Colvin 0.0218 0.0340 5.5
5 Danny Espinosa 0.0131 0.0051 5.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Kipnis 0.0206 0.0084 7.5
2 Shane Victorino 0.0243 0.0136 6.4
3 Stephen Drew 0.0241 0.0048 5.9
4 Danny Espinosa 0.0152 0.0051 5.9
5 Yoenis Cespedes 0.0042 0.0137 5.7

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Trout 0.0052 0.0169 0.0202 9.7 2.4 7.3
2 Bryan LaHair 0.0127 0.0027 0.0000 4.8 0.8 3.9
3 Tyler Colvin 0.0174 0.0255 0.0340 7.6 4.1 3.5
4 Chris Nelson 0.0046 0.0126 0.0117 2.8 0.1 2.6
5 Anthony Gose 0.0074 0.0202 0.0273 3.8 1.4 2.4
6 Seth Smith 0.0171 0.0124 0.0073 4.2 2.0 2.2
7 Gorkys Hernández 0.0074 0.0204 0.0268 3.4 1.2 2.2
8 Casper Wells 0.0047 0.0119 0.0153 3.4 1.2 2.2
9 Anthony Rizzo 0.0110 0.0055 0.0000 4.0 1.8 2.1
10 Joaquin Arias 0.0064 0.0127 0.0181 4.1 2.0 2.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Dexter Fowler 0.0279 0.0332 0.0343 3.3 0.8 2.5
2 Anthony Gose 0.0074 0.0202 0.0273 3.7 1.4 2.3
3 Gorkys Hernández 0.0074 0.0204 0.0268 3.3 1.2 2.1
4 Joaquin Arias 0.0074 0.0127 0.0181 3.6 2.0 1.6
5 Brennan Boesch 0.0102 0.0078 0.0056 2.3 0.8 1.5
6 Jemile Weeks 0.0154 0.0189 0.0208 2.7 1.3 1.4
7 Tyler Colvin 0.0218 0.0255 0.0340 5.5 4.1 1.4
8 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0116 0.0100 0.0027 5.3 4.0 1.3
9 Michael Bourn 0.0130 0.0156 0.0215 5.8 4.5 1.3
10 Mike Trout 0.0142 0.0169 0.0202 3.7 2.4 1.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jason Kipnis 0.0206 0.0172 0.0084 7.5 5.6 1.9
2 José Reyes 0.0294 0.0265 0.0205 5.6 3.9 1.7
3 Shane Victorino 0.0243 0.0215 0.0136 6.4 4.9 1.5
4 Norichika Aoki 0.0165 0.0134 0.0086 4.0 2.5 1.5
5 Carlos Gómez 0.0191 0.0154 0.0130 2.2 0.8 1.4
6 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.0207 0.0162 0.0082 3.8 2.5 1.3
7 Desmond Jennings 0.0150 0.0164 0.0185 2.6 1.5 1.1
8 A.J. Ellis 0.0088 0.0060 0.0032 2.3 1.2 1.1
9 Carlos Beltrán 0.0125 0.0103 0.0025 5.5 4.5 1.0
10 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0094 0.0103 0.0100 1.2 0.1 1.0

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Freddie Freeman 0.1468
0.1171
(19.6)
0.1076
(26.2)
0.1167
(20.5)
0.1175
(19.0)
Bryce Harper 0.1642
0.1015
(38.5)
0.1164
(30.4)
0.1075
(35.6)
0.0956
(41.7)
Albert Pujols 0.1269
0.1593
(20.4)
0.1593
(19.7)
0.1636
(22.6)
0.1549
(18.0)
Austin Jackson 0.1669
0.1308
(23.5)
0.1380
(19.8)
0.1369
(20.4)
0.1246
(26.9)
Wilin Rosario 0.1573
0.1041
(23.5)
0.1139
(19.8)
0.1161
(18.8)
0.0920
(28.3)
Mike Trout 0.2019
0.1463
(36.7)
0.1286
(48.8)
0.1303
(47.7)
0.1622
(26.1)
Melky Cabrera 0.1677
0.1200
(24.8)
0.1250
(22.9)
0.1183
(26.2)
0.1218
(23.6)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrián González 0.1443 0.1096 22.4
2 Carlos Gómez 0.1162 0.1593 20.3
3 Yunel Escobar 0.1293 0.0954 19.4
4 A.J. Pierzynski 0.0964 0.1308 18.8
5 Jesus Montero 0.1183 0.0832 18.4
6 Hanley Ramirez 0.1467 0.1184 17.6
7 Delmon Young 0.1196 0.0888 17.5
8 Chase Headley 0.1131 0.1359 17.3
9 Jon Jay 0.1070 0.1394 17.3
10 Chris Denorfia 0.1034 0.1466 17.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chase Headley 0.1061 0.1359 23.0
2 A.J. Pierzynski 0.0918 0.1308 21.9
3 Justin Upton 0.1398 0.1704 21.2
4 Shane Victorino 0.1429 0.1081 21.1
5 Michael Saunders 0.0976 0.1284 18.8
6 Adam Dunn 0.1085 0.1341 18.6
7 Alex Rios 0.1197 0.1453 18.4
8 Adam Jones 0.1246 0.1478 18.3
9 Jesus Montero 0.1193 0.0832 18.3
10 Andrew McCutchen 0.1350 0.1590 18.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrián González 0.1575 0.1096 30.7
2 Carlos Gómez 0.1000 0.1593 28.2
3 Yunel Escobar 0.1396 0.0954 25.0
4 Chris Denorfia 0.0891 0.1466 23.1
5 Andrew McCutchen 0.1277 0.1590 23.1
6 Darwin Barney 0.0882 0.1241 22.9
7 Jon Jay 0.0968 0.1394 22.9
8 Norichika Aoki 0.1027 0.1378 22.4
9 Prince Fielder 0.1528 0.1203 20.3
10 Jesus Montero 0.1218 0.0832 19.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hanley Ramirez 0.1541 0.1184 23.0
2 Josh Hamilton 0.1273 0.1619 22.9
3 A.J. Pierzynski 0.0894 0.1308 22.1
4 Shane Victorino 0.1417 0.1081 21.6
5 David Ortiz 0.1147 0.1697 21.6
6 Chase Headley 0.1088 0.1359 19.8
7 Howie Kendrick 0.1296 0.0960 19.3
8 Kyle Seager 0.1260 0.0952 19.2
9 Justin Upton 0.1414 0.1704 19.0
10 Yadier Molina 0.0830 0.1155 19.0

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Moustakas 0.0888 0.1114 0.1124 16.4 1.8 14.6
2 Michael Saunders 0.0976 0.1186 0.1284 18.8 6.5 12.3
3 Mike Trout 0.1286 0.1463 0.2019 48.8 36.7 12.1
4 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1232 0.1437 0.1497 14.8 4.0 10.9
5 Adam Dunn 0.1085 0.1217 0.1341 18.6 9.2 9.4
6 Shane Victorino 0.1429 0.1280 0.1081 21.1 12.0 9.1
7 Pedro Álvarez 0.0979 0.1100 0.1092 8.5 0.7 7.8
8 Anthony Rizzo 0.0944 0.1131 0.1196 10.4 3.1 7.3
9 Ryan Doumit 0.0942 0.1067 0.1061 7.9 0.7 7.2
10 Ryan Roberts 0.1354 0.1205 0.1043 13.7 7.0 6.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Trout 0.1303 0.1463 0.2019 47.7 36.7 10.9
2 Everth Cabrera 0.0870 0.1085 0.1091 11.3 1.1 10.2
3 Prince Fielder 0.1528 0.1381 0.1203 20.3 11.0 9.4
4 Darwin Barney 0.0882 0.1020 0.1241 22.9 14.1 8.8
5 Andrew McCutchen 0.1277 0.1393 0.1590 23.1 14.5 8.6
6 Adrián González 0.1575 0.1443 0.1096 30.7 22.4 8.3
7 Michael Saunders 0.1053 0.1186 0.1284 14.4 6.5 7.9
8 Carlos Gómez 0.1000 0.1162 0.1593 28.2 20.3 7.8
9 Drew Stubbs 0.1092 0.1213 0.1379 17.2 10.0 7.2
10 Norichika Aoki 0.1027 0.1138 0.1378 22.4 15.2 7.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cameron Maybin 0.1450 0.1283 0.1194 13.6 3.9 9.7
2 Shane Victorino 0.1417 0.1280 0.1081 21.6 12.0 9.6
3 Carlos Beltrán 0.1123 0.1260 0.1341 14.2 6.2 8.1
4 Everth Cabrera 0.1300 0.1085 0.1091 8.8 1.1 7.7
5 Kyle Seager 0.1260 0.1151 0.0952 19.2 11.7 7.5
6 Nelson Cruz 0.1205 0.1327 0.1340 9.5 2.1 7.4
7 David Murphy 0.1055 0.1187 0.1248 10.7 4.1 6.5
8 Will Middlebrooks 0.0717 0.0952 0.1189 13.9 7.3 6.5
9 Josh Hamilton 0.1273 0.1380 0.1619 22.9 16.5 6.4
10 Chris Davis 0.1054 0.1167 0.1335 16.5 10.5 6.0

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Kyle Seager 0.1321
0.0934
(25.1)
0.0877
(30.2)
0.0959
(23.8)
0.0909
(26.9)
Chase Headley 0.1645
0.0922
(50.5)
0.0980
(47.9)
0.0858
(55.3)
0.0986
(46.2)
Jeff Francoeur 0.0813
0.1255
(26.8)
0.1254
(25.5)
0.1294
(28.8)
0.1216
(24.3)
Carlos Ruiz 0.1615
0.0927
(28.9)
0.1055
(24.4)
0.0862
(31.9)
0.0991
(26.4)
Josh Willingham 0.1789
0.1371
(25.6)
0.1404
(24.9)
0.1384
(25.1)
0.1357
(26.6)
Edwin Encarnación 0.1708
0.1271
(28.1)
0.1155
(36.9)
0.1324
(25.0)
0.1219
(31.6)
A.J. Pierzynski 0.1481
0.1004
(24.7)
0.1020
(25.0)
0.1033
(23.5)
0.0976
(26.3)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Miguel Cabrera 0.1597 0.1994 27.6
2 Alex Rodriguez 0.1598 0.1078 27.6
3 Jemile Weeks 0.0874 0.0391 24.7
4 Mike Trout 0.0913 0.1299 24.6
5 Josh Hamilton 0.1626 0.2013 24.5
6 Allen Craig 0.1320 0.1790 24.1
7 Will Middlebrooks 0.1056 0.1888 23.8
8 Alfonso Soriano 0.1370 0.1756 23.7
9 Carlos Pena 0.1410 0.1017 23.6
10 Carlos Beltrán 0.1185 0.1567 23.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Rodriguez 0.1688 0.1078 31.3
2 Miguel Cabrera 0.1576 0.1994 30.5
3 Chris Davis 0.1049 0.1512 27.1
4 Josh Hamilton 0.1606 0.2013 27.1
5 Buster Posey 0.1275 0.1689 26.4
6 Dayan Viciedo 0.0975 0.1436 26.1
7 Zack Cozart 0.1036 0.0583 26.0
8 Jemile Weeks 0.0909 0.0391 25.5
9 Freddie Freeman 0.1150 0.1516 23.9
10 Wilin Rosario 0.1139 0.1667 23.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Allen Craig 0.1150 0.1790 33.1
2 Carlos Beltrán 0.1114 0.1567 28.3
3 Jemile Weeks 0.0926 0.0391 27.1
4 Jonathan Lucroy 0.0928 0.1676 26.0
5 Michael Young 0.1429 0.1029 25.8
6 Alfonso Soriano 0.1350 0.1756 25.2
7 Shane Victorino 0.1209 0.0826 25.2
8 Chris Heisey 0.1474 0.0827 24.1
9 Chris Johnson 0.0991 0.1439 23.9
10 Carlos Pena 0.1412 0.1017 23.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Rodriguez 0.1738 0.1078 34.9
2 Miguel Cabrera 0.1507 0.1994 34.1
3 Josh Reddick 0.0833 0.1263 29.0
4 Mike Trout 0.0855 0.1299 28.4
5 Josh Hamilton 0.1582 0.2013 27.5
6 Will Middlebrooks 0.0944 0.1888 27.0
7 Buster Posey 0.1284 0.1689 24.7
8 Alex Rios 0.1041 0.1422 24.4
9 Wilin Rosario 0.1104 0.1667 24.0
10 Jose Altuve 0.0965 0.0587 23.7

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Davis 0.1049 0.1296 0.1512 27.1 12.1 15.0
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1393 0.1664 0.1717 17.2 2.6 14.6
3 Freddie Freeman 0.1150 0.1358 0.1516 23.9 9.8 14.1
4 Jay Bruce 0.1343 0.1545 0.1564 15.2 1.1 14.1
5 Dayan Viciedo 0.0975 0.1194 0.1436 26.1 13.1 13.0
6 Alejandro De Aza 0.1172 0.0931 0.0855 17.4 4.5 12.9
7 Mike Moustakas 0.0939 0.1252 0.1189 16.5 3.9 12.6
8 Norichika Aoki 0.1108 0.0895 0.0850 14.0 2.7 11.3
9 Anthony Rizzo 0.0909 0.1418 0.1304 15.3 4.2 11.0
10 Josh Reddick 0.0989 0.1118 0.1263 19.8 9.7 10.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1007 0.0826 0.0830 11.5 0.2 11.3
2 Jesus Montero 0.1450 0.1259 0.1121 17.9 7.7 10.2
3 Scott Podsednik 0.1108 0.0643 0.0556 11.8 1.9 9.9
4 Jason Kubel 0.1262 0.1427 0.1576 18.2 8.5 9.7
5 Ryan Ludwick 0.1277 0.1466 0.1695 19.9 10.8 9.1
6 Albert Pujols 0.1847 0.1706 0.1567 18.5 9.4 9.1
7 Allen Craig 0.1150 0.1320 0.1790 33.1 24.1 9.1
8 Raul Ibanez 0.1155 0.1346 0.1459 13.1 4.7 8.3
9 Aaron Hill 0.0997 0.1114 0.1272 18.7 10.5 8.2
10 Dustin Ackley 0.1033 0.0909 0.0749 18.7 10.8 7.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Josh Reddick 0.0833 0.1118 0.1263 29.0 9.7 19.4
2 Ichiro Suzuki 0.0645 0.0826 0.0830 12.4 0.2 12.2
3 Daniel Murphy 0.1287 0.1138 0.1062 13.7 4.7 9.0
4 Jamey Carroll 0.0421 0.0582 0.0745 17.5 8.7 8.8
5 Ike Davis 0.1241 0.1380 0.1541 17.6 9.3 8.3
6 Austin Jackson 0.0689 0.0815 0.1070 23.6 15.7 7.9
7 Alex Rodriguez 0.1738 0.1598 0.1078 34.9 27.6 7.3
8 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1530 0.1664 0.1717 9.4 2.6 6.8
9 Chris Snyder 0.1474 0.1209 0.0930 14.0 7.2 6.8
10 Seth Smith 0.1015 0.1166 0.1179 7.3 0.5 6.7

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alexi Casilla 0.2958
0.1347
(52.6)
0.1443
(49.3)
0.1321
(52.2)
0.1373
(52.9)
Shane Victorino 0.2378
0.1347
(68.9)
0.1449
(61.8)
0.1267
(71.7)
0.1429
(65.7)
Carlos Gómez 0.3936
0.2430
(68.2)
0.2000
(87.5)
0.2272
(73.7)
0.2588
(62.6)
Jordan Schafer 0.3034
0.1715
(47.6)
0.1562
(52.9)
0.1670
(47.9)
0.1765
(47.0)
Tony Campana 0.5882
0.3126
(53.0)
0.2778
(59.6)
0.2957
(55.5)
0.3284
(50.6)
Dewayne Wise 0.3800
0.1714
(49.9)
0.1455
(56.0)
0.1591
(52.0)
0.1837
(47.8)
Norichika Aoki 0.1935
0.0538
(82.4)
0.0738
(70.4)
0.0521
(81.2)
0.0556
(83.3)
Alexei Ramirez 0.1429
0.0541
(55.3)
0.0662
(47.5)
0.0516
(54.5)
0.0566
(55.9)
Jason Kipnis 0.1685
0.0799
(59.7)
0.0882
(53.9)
0.0738
(61.3)
0.0861
(57.8)
Emilio Bonifácio 0.3704
0.1814
(51.9)
0.1788
(52.5)
0.1666
(54.9)
0.1962
(48.7)
Quintin Berry 0.2360
0.0738
(53.6)
0.0738
(53.5)
0.0738
(52.4)
0.0738
(54.7)
Elvis Andrus 0.1055
0.1806
(53.1)
0.1714
(46.9)
0.1797
(55.2)
0.1814
(51.3)
Everth Cabrera 0.3667
0.2501
(52.5)
0.1754
(85.8)
0.2267
(61.3)
0.2736
(43.4)
Omar Infante 0.1360
0.0293
(62.9)
0.0395
(56.7)
0.0288
(61.0)
0.0299
(64.6)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Bourn 0.2871 0.2111 53.2
2 Michael Saunders 0.1004 0.1810 44.8
3 Matt Kemp 0.1760 0.0763 44.6
4 John Mayberry Jr. 0.0999 0.0094 43.2
5 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0502 0.1224 42.6
6 Jason Heyward 0.0719 0.1355 41.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Trout 0.0938 0.2579 104.8
2 Darin Mastroianni 0.0600 0.4038 63.9
3 Jose Altuve 0.1013 0.1964 59.9
4 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2235 0.4000 58.2
5 Alcides Escobar 0.1278 0.2059 50.5
6 Anthony Gose 0.0738 0.3333 49.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Gose 0.0738 0.3333 48.4
2 Michael Bourn 0.2749 0.2111 47.3
3 Michael Saunders 0.0974 0.1810 44.3
4 Jeff Francoeur 0.0994 0.0312 43.2
5 Michael Brantley 0.1396 0.0727 42.8
6 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2678 0.4000 42.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Bourn 0.2995 0.2111 59.6
2 Matt Kemp 0.1939 0.0763 51.2
3 John Mayberry Jr. 0.1089 0.0094 45.9
4 Martín Prado 0.0278 0.0904 45.8
5 Michael Saunders 0.1034 0.1810 44.9
6 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0497 0.1224 44.9

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Trout 0.0938 0.2129 0.2579 104.8 29.0 75.9
2 Anthony Gose 0.0738 0.3397 0.3333 49.0 1.1 47.9
3 Jose Altuve 0.1013 0.1688 0.1964 59.9 17.6 42.3
4 Everth Cabrera 0.1754 0.2501 0.3667 85.8 52.5 33.3
5 Alcides Escobar 0.1278 0.1703 0.2059 50.5 23.3 27.2
6 Jesus Montero 0.0492 0.0007 0.0000 27.2 0.2 27.1
7 Pedro Ciriaco 0.0926 0.1886 0.2462 41.7 15.8 26.0
8 Darin Mastroianni 0.0600 0.2001 0.4038 63.9 38.0 26.0
9 Jordany Valdespin 0.0738 0.2000 0.2500 36.3 10.4 25.9
10 Justin Ruggiano 0.0678 0.1446 0.1707 32.9 8.5 24.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Anthony Gose 0.0738 0.3397 0.3333 48.4 1.1 47.3
2 Jordany Valdespin 0.0738 0.2000 0.2500 35.6 10.4 25.2
3 Yasmani Grandal 0.0738 0.0000 0.0000 17.4 0.1 17.4
4 Xavier Avery 0.0738 0.2011 0.2500 18.5 5.3 13.2
5 Daniel Nava 0.0738 0.0339 0.0357 13.1 0.7 12.5
6 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1527 0.1733 0.1824 17.4 6.2 11.2
7 Omar Quintanilla 0.0738 0.0213 0.0000 14.7 4.0 10.7
8 Scott Moore 0.0738 0.0349 0.0000 17.6 7.9 9.7
9 Gorkys Hernández 0.0738 0.1333 0.1842 18.5 8.9 9.7
10 Jose Altuve 0.1502 0.1688 0.1964 27.0 17.6 9.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Reyes 0.2357 0.2170 0.2139 13.0 2.0 11.0
2 David Wright 0.1282 0.1085 0.0758 32.7 21.7 10.9
3 Bryce Harper 0.1719 0.1533 0.1241 26.3 17.2 9.1
4 Nelson Cruz 0.1228 0.1058 0.0588 38.7 29.9 8.8
5 Brett Lawrie 0.1622 0.1433 0.0977 32.6 24.2 8.3
6 Hanley Ramirez 0.1875 0.1720 0.1329 34.0 25.8 8.1
7 Justin Maxwell 0.2105 0.1854 0.1233 29.4 21.7 7.7
8 Carlos González 0.1538 0.1375 0.1274 13.2 5.7 7.5
9 Nyjer Morgan 0.1880 0.1637 0.1429 13.3 6.6 6.7
10 Matt Kemp 0.1939 0.1760 0.0763 51.2 44.6 6.6

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alex Rios 0.3041
0.2605
(28.8)
0.2530
(36.1)
0.2622
(28.2)
0.2589
(29.8)
Andrew McCutchen 0.3272
0.2725
(37.7)
0.2726
(40.3)
0.2715
(38.8)
0.2735
(37.0)
David Wright 0.3064
0.2715
(24.3)
0.2757
(24.1)
0.2742
(22.9)
0.2689
(26.0)
Austin Jackson 0.3002
0.2618
(24.5)
0.2676
(23.4)
0.2643
(23.4)
0.2594
(26.0)
Prince Fielder 0.3133
0.2772
(25.8)
0.2821
(25.2)
0.2800
(24.4)
0.2745
(27.6)
Aaron Hill 0.3021
0.2607
(28.6)
0.2465
(40.7)
0.2563
(32.0)
0.2652
(25.6)
Buster Posey 0.3358
0.2869
(30.7)
0.2830
(35.5)
0.2865
(31.3)
0.2872
(30.5)
Torii Hunter 0.3127
0.2613
(30.8)
0.2734
(26.1)
0.2615
(31.1)
0.2612
(30.8)
Eric Hosmer 0.2318
0.2924
(35.5)
0.2817
(26.6)
0.2808
(28.1)
0.3040
(42.4)
Mike Trout 0.3256
0.2605
(42.5)
0.2421
(56.8)
0.2544
(46.8)
0.2666
(38.5)
Melky Cabrera 0.3464
0.2814
(33.3)
0.2816
(35.1)
0.2783
(35.2)
0.2845
(31.7)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Jeter 0.2742 0.3163 32.1
2 Carlos Ruiz 0.2650 0.3253 25.9
3 Jonathan Lucroy 0.2524 0.3196 23.7
4 Adrian Beltré 0.2869 0.3212 23.4
5 Jeff Keppinger 0.2709 0.3247 23.0
6 Justin Ruggiano 0.2422 0.3125 22.9
7 Adam LaRoche 0.2375 0.2715 22.8
8 Jemile Weeks 0.2664 0.2207 22.6
9 Andy Dirks 0.2581 0.3217 22.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler Colvin 0.2236 0.2905 32.6
2 Jemile Weeks 0.2883 0.2207 31.8
3 Alcides Escobar 0.2505 0.2926 30.7
4 Anthony Rizzo 0.2129 0.2849 28.5
5 Andy Dirks 0.2542 0.3217 25.0
6 Jordan Pacheco 0.2655 0.3095 24.9
7 Dustin Ackley 0.2676 0.2257 24.4
8 Brendan Ryan 0.2511 0.1941 24.3
9 Jeff Keppinger 0.2743 0.3247 23.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Ruiz 0.2610 0.3253 27.9
2 Derek Jeter 0.2809 0.3163 27.6
3 Ike Davis 0.2745 0.2274 26.4
4 Alex Gordon 0.2605 0.2944 25.9
5 Adrian Beltré 0.2849 0.3212 25.1
6 Jonathan Lucroy 0.2506 0.3196 24.6
7 Justin Ruggiano 0.2388 0.3125 24.2
8 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2496 0.2916 23.8
9 Andy Dirks 0.2556 0.3217 23.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Jeter 0.2675 0.3163 37.0
2 Jordan Pacheco 0.2623 0.3095 24.5
3 Carlos Ruiz 0.2690 0.3253 24.2
4 Adam LaRoche 0.2363 0.2715 23.6
5 Jeff Keppinger 0.2696 0.3247 23.6
6 Brendan Ryan 0.2447 0.1941 23.2
7 Jonathan Lucroy 0.2542 0.3196 23.1
8 Jemile Weeks 0.2669 0.2207 23.0
9 Dustin Ackley 0.2607 0.2257 22.5

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Norichika Aoki 0.2585 0.2819 0.2885 20.8 4.7 16.1
2 Jose Altuve 0.2673 0.2881 0.2899 17.6 2.0 15.6
3 Mike Trout 0.2421 0.2605 0.3256 56.8 42.5 14.3
4 Alcides Escobar 0.2505 0.2684 0.2926 30.7 16.6 14.1
5 Anthony Rizzo 0.2129 0.2431 0.2849 28.5 15.9 12.6
6 Aaron Hill 0.2465 0.2607 0.3021 40.7 28.6 12.2
7 Brandon Belt 0.2429 0.2637 0.2749 17.7 6.0 11.7
8 Tyler Colvin 0.2236 0.2445 0.2905 32.6 21.4 11.2
9 DJ LeMahieu 0.2546 0.2951 0.2969 11.8 0.8 11.0
10 Derek Norris 0.2585 0.1936 0.2010 12.1 2.0 10.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cody Ransom 0.2585 0.2249 0.2195 10.4 1.1 9.3
2 Alex Gordon 0.2605 0.2692 0.2944 25.9 19.1 6.8
3 Josh Reddick 0.2566 0.2472 0.2422 8.3 2.4 5.9
4 Joe Mather 0.2585 0.2343 0.2089 11.6 5.8 5.7
5 Ichiro Suzuki 0.2963 0.2873 0.2830 7.4 1.9 5.5
6 Ike Davis 0.2745 0.2646 0.2274 26.4 21.0 5.4
7 Brandon Barnes 0.2585 0.2068 0.2041 5.5 0.1 5.4
8 Anthony Gose 0.2585 0.2304 0.2229 6.3 1.2 5.2
9 Norichika Aoki 0.2738 0.2819 0.2885 9.8 4.7 5.1
10 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2496 0.2573 0.2916 23.8 19.3 4.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Eric Hosmer 0.3040 0.2924 0.2318 42.4 35.5 7.0
2 Bryce Harper 0.2376 0.2485 0.2702 20.2 13.7 6.5
3 Jason Heyward 0.2546 0.2627 0.2692 10.3 5.1 5.2
4 Grégor Blanco 0.2162 0.2274 0.2443 13.3 8.3 5.0
5 Derek Jeter 0.2675 0.2742 0.3163 37.0 32.1 4.9
6 Jordan Pacheco 0.2623 0.2713 0.3095 24.5 20.0 4.5
7 Rod Barajas 0.2508 0.2399 0.2056 15.8 11.9 4.0
8 Brandon Crawford 0.2245 0.2329 0.2483 11.9 8.0 3.9
9 Derek Norris 0.1768 0.1936 0.2010 5.9 2.0 3.9
10 Clint Barmes 0.2489 0.2412 0.2286 9.4 5.5 3.9

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Miguel Montero 0.3909
0.3367
(33.3)
0.3425
(32.3)
0.3379
(34.3)
0.3355
(32.9)
Andrew McCutchen 0.3997
0.3620
(28.0)
0.3599
(32.1)
0.3625
(29.6)
0.3615
(27.1)
Hanley Ramirez 0.3223
0.3693
(28.7)
0.3678
(25.0)
0.3736
(29.7)
0.3649
(27.0)
Austin Jackson 0.3772
0.3256
(34.3)
0.3289
(34.7)
0.3297
(33.5)
0.3215
(35.7)
Melky Cabrera 0.3900
0.3294
(32.3)
0.3322
(32.9)
0.3292
(33.8)
0.3295
(31.4)
Joey Votto 0.4737
0.4023
(35.8)
0.4054
(36.2)
0.4024
(37.1)
0.4022
(35.0)
Adrián González 0.3436
0.3896
(28.8)
0.3933
(28.5)
0.3955
(30.9)
0.3836
(25.9)
David Murphy 0.3796
0.3316
(27.0)
0.3377
(26.0)
0.3350
(26.7)
0.3282
(27.9)
Dustin Ackley 0.2939
0.3472
(33.0)
0.3392
(25.0)
0.3463
(30.6)
0.3481
(34.9)
Aaron Hill 0.3598
0.3161
(31.8)
0.3031
(43.2)
0.3140
(35.1)
0.3183
(29.2)
Buster Posey 0.4082
0.3582
(32.9)
0.3459
(42.9)
0.3587
(34.3)
0.3578
(32.0)
Edwin Encarnación 0.3835
0.3317
(35.9)
0.3234
(43.9)
0.3328
(37.0)
0.3306
(35.5)
Albert Pujols 0.3433
0.3956
(32.4)
0.3915
(27.0)
0.4031
(35.6)
0.3881
(28.6)
Mike Trout 0.3991
0.3338
(44.2)
0.3082
(63.1)
0.3294
(48.8)
0.3383
(40.2)
Yunel Escobar 0.2995
0.3551
(31.4)
0.3560
(29.5)
0.3593
(32.2)
0.3508
(30.0)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Casey Kotchman 0.3428 0.2797 29.6
2 David Freese 0.3264 0.3721 28.1
3 David Wright 0.3564 0.3910 25.8
4 Robinson Canó 0.3459 0.3788 25.7
5 Justin Ruggiano 0.2990 0.3742 25.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 David Wright 0.3558 0.3910 28.9
2 Chase Headley 0.3436 0.3763 28.4
3 Alcides Escobar 0.2978 0.3312 26.8
4 Alex Rios 0.3007 0.3344 26.6
5 Michael Brantley 0.3156 0.3481 24.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ike Davis 0.3646 0.3082 29.0
2 Casey Kotchman 0.3438 0.2797 28.7
3 Robinson Canó 0.3448 0.3788 28.3
4 David Freese 0.3296 0.3721 28.0
5 Jon Jay 0.3264 0.3732 26.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Casey Kotchman 0.3417 0.2797 30.0
2 David Freese 0.3233 0.3721 28.9
3 David Wright 0.3508 0.3910 28.4
4 Eric Hosmer 0.3539 0.3043 28.4
5 Derek Jeter 0.3294 0.3624 25.9

Most Unique Misses for On-Base Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brandon Belt 0.3173 0.3600 0.3602 24.0 1.9 22.1
2 Mike Trout 0.3082 0.3338 0.3991 63.1 44.2 19.0
3 Norichika Aoki 0.3236 0.3475 0.3546 22.9 6.5 16.5
4 Michael Saunders 0.2800 0.3017 0.3062 18.9 4.7 14.2
5 Giancarlo Stanton 0.3417 0.3630 0.3613 13.8 1.1 12.7
6 Michael Brantley 0.3156 0.3314 0.3481 24.7 12.5 12.1
7 Aaron Hill 0.3031 0.3161 0.3598 43.2 31.8 11.4
8 Jesus Flores 0.3143 0.2726 0.2483 17.2 6.0 11.1
9 Paul Goldschmidt 0.3299 0.3448 0.3595 22.0 10.9 11.1
10 Zack Cozart 0.3288 0.3064 0.2876 19.9 8.9 11.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Joe Mather 0.3236 0.2898 0.2562 14.7 7.2 7.5
2 Brandon Barnes 0.3236 0.2580 0.2500 7.0 0.4 6.6
3 Ike Davis 0.3646 0.3514 0.3082 29.0 22.9 6.1
4 Yoenis Cespedes 0.3133 0.3210 0.3556 26.4 20.8 5.7
5 Ichiro Suzuki 0.3392 0.3282 0.3070 16.9 11.5 5.4
6 Alex Gordon 0.3488 0.3534 0.3675 18.4 13.0 5.4
7 Jordany Valdespin 0.3236 0.2843 0.2857 6.4 1.1 5.3
8 Mike Trout 0.3294 0.3338 0.3991 48.8 44.2 4.6
9 Xavier Nady 0.3236 0.2944 0.2530 10.6 6.2 4.4
10 Freddy Galvis 0.3236 0.2994 0.2538 12.6 8.3 4.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Josh Reddick 0.2890 0.3001 0.3051 12.2 6.0 6.2
2 Eric Hosmer 0.3539 0.3470 0.3043 28.4 23.1 5.2
3 Derek Jeter 0.3294 0.3378 0.3624 25.9 21.1 4.8
4 Norichika Aoki 0.3379 0.3475 0.3546 11.0 6.5 4.5
5 Ángel Pagán 0.3217 0.3303 0.3379 12.0 7.6 4.5
6 José Bautista 0.4081 0.3999 0.3584 19.0 15.0 4.0
7 Chris Davis 0.2988 0.3075 0.3256 16.3 12.4 3.9
8 Chipper Jones 0.3430 0.3529 0.3772 16.3 12.7 3.6
9 Jordan Pacheco 0.3165 0.3254 0.3413 13.5 10.0 3.6
10 Brian Bixler 0.3236 0.2896 0.2526 6.6 3.2 3.4

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alex Rios 0.5157
0.4111
(67.4)
0.3984
(79.3)
0.4180
(66.5)
0.4043
(69.7)
Brandon Moss 0.5962
0.3916
(60.8)
0.3602
(71.8)
0.4083
(57.5)
0.3750
(64.7)
Carlos Pena 0.3541
0.4485
(56.2)
0.4565
(57.5)
0.4504
(54.0)
0.4467
(57.1)
Chase Headley 0.4983
0.3943
(73.3)
0.3908
(79.7)
0.3966
(75.5)
0.3919
(72.6)
Ian Desmond 0.5107
0.3821
(70.7)
0.3816
(74.2)
0.3859
(71.7)
0.3784
(71.0)
Andrew McCutchen 0.5531
0.4531
(67.8)
0.4492
(74.3)
0.4515
(72.6)
0.4547
(64.5)
Carlos Ruiz 0.5403
0.3849
(65.7)
0.4146
(55.7)
0.3867
(67.3)
0.3832
(65.1)
Austin Jackson 0.4788
0.3806
(61.1)
0.3906
(58.5)
0.3860
(61.2)
0.3752
(62.3)
Yadier Molina 0.5010
0.3934
(61.0)
0.4061
(57.1)
0.3902
(65.9)
0.3967
(57.3)
Aaron Hill 0.5222
0.4196
(69.0)
0.4101
(79.2)
0.4150
(75.8)
0.4242
(63.7)
Buster Posey 0.5491
0.4502
(60.7)
0.4437
(68.2)
0.4603
(58.0)
0.4401
(64.9)
Edwin Encarnación 0.5572
0.4566
(65.2)
0.4444
(76.8)
0.4560
(69.3)
0.4573
(62.7)
Mike Trout 0.5635
0.4102
(98.4)
0.3968
(110.7)
0.4065
(104.3)
0.4139
(93.9)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Hosmer 0.4665 0.3589 63.9
2 Adam LaRoche 0.4139 0.5096 62.5
3 Justin Upton 0.5217 0.4296 57.4
4 A.J. Pierzynski 0.3929 0.5010 56.6
5 Dustin Ackley 0.4017 0.3278 48.8
6 Adrián González 0.5343 0.4626 48.5
7 Justin Ruggiano 0.3851 0.5347 48.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Ludwick 0.4013 0.5308 64.2
2 Michael Saunders 0.3333 0.4320 58.2
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.5000 0.6080 57.4
4 Chris Davis 0.4060 0.5010 57.0
5 Tyler Colvin 0.4161 0.5310 54.9
6 Michael Young 0.4600 0.3699 54.4
7 Jemile Weeks 0.4158 0.3041 53.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam LaRoche 0.4129 0.5096 66.7
2 Justin Upton 0.5383 0.4296 64.3
3 A.J. Pierzynski 0.3918 0.5010 60.1
4 Eric Hosmer 0.4594 0.3589 56.3
5 Melky Cabrera 0.4210 0.5163 50.9
6 Justin Ruggiano 0.3826 0.5347 50.7
7 Adrián González 0.5429 0.4626 50.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Hosmer 0.4736 0.3589 70.2
2 Adam LaRoche 0.4148 0.5096 59.7
3 Dustin Ackley 0.4098 0.3278 56.5
4 A.J. Pierzynski 0.3939 0.5010 54.3
5 Brett Lawrie 0.4983 0.4049 51.5
6 Michael Saunders 0.3394 0.4320 49.7
7 Eric Chavez 0.3361 0.4964 49.4

Most Unique Misses for Slugging Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.3454 0.4434 0.4629 45.7 7.5 38.2
2 Pedro Álvarez 0.3894 0.4467 0.4667 49.1 12.1 37.0
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.5000 0.5600 0.6080 57.4 24.4 33.0
4 Paul Goldschmidt 0.4389 0.4930 0.4903 34.0 1.2 32.8
5 Chris Davis 0.4060 0.4570 0.5010 57.0 25.2 31.9
6 Dayan Viciedo 0.4048 0.4439 0.4436 24.6 0.2 24.4
7 Brian Bogusevic 0.4189 0.3548 0.2986 45.9 22.4 23.5
8 Jason Heyward 0.4220 0.4516 0.4787 41.2 18.1 23.1
9 Jay Bruce 0.4673 0.4938 0.5143 33.9 13.4 20.4
10 Seth Smith 0.4722 0.4225 0.4204 20.0 0.6 19.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brian Dozier 0.4133 0.3526 0.3323 25.4 6.6 18.8
2 Gorkys Hernández 0.4133 0.3301 0.3013 18.3 4.9 13.4
3 Alex Gordon 0.4423 0.4534 0.4548 13.6 1.6 12.0
4 Scott Podsednik 0.4133 0.3519 0.3518 11.9 0.1 11.8
5 Jason Kubel 0.4577 0.4724 0.5059 31.1 19.6 11.5
6 Will Rhymes 0.4133 0.3252 0.2846 16.8 5.5 11.3
7 Joe Mather 0.4133 0.3657 0.3244 20.1 9.8 10.2
8 Ike Davis 0.4937 0.4711 0.4624 14.6 4.6 10.0
9 Paul Goldschmidt 0.5145 0.4930 0.4903 10.5 1.2 9.4
10 Jesus Montero 0.4799 0.4591 0.3864 48.2 39.8 8.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Josh Reddick 0.3907 0.4219 0.4632 47.0 28.3 18.7
2 Jason Heyward 0.4271 0.4516 0.4787 31.9 18.1 13.8
3 Rod Barajas 0.4396 0.4129 0.3427 35.9 25.1 10.8
4 Jay Bruce 0.4744 0.4938 0.5143 23.6 13.4 10.2
5 José Reyes 0.4708 0.4602 0.4330 28.9 18.9 10.0
6 Brett Lawrie 0.4983 0.4857 0.4049 51.5 42.9 8.6
7 Paul Goldschmidt 0.4715 0.4930 0.4903 9.5 1.2 8.3
8 Marco Scutaro 0.4151 0.4070 0.4048 8.8 0.9 7.8
9 Dustin Ackley 0.4098 0.4017 0.3278 56.5 48.8 7.7
10 Jordan Pacheco 0.3629 0.3813 0.4211 28.0 20.4 7.6

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Daniel Hudson 202
781
(579.2)
761
(559.0)
748
(546.4)
814
(612.0)
Chris Carpenter 72
784
(711.7)
820
(748.0)
714
(642.4)
853
(781.0)
John Lannan 144
716
(571.7)
731
(587.0)
643
(499.5)
788
(644.0)
Tim Stauffer 24
650
(625.9)
629
(605.0)
684
(660.0)
616
(591.9)
Chris Narveson 41
588
(546.6)
642
(601.0)
551
(510.1)
624
(583.1)
Mike Pelfrey 85
752
(666.5)
774
(689.0)
714
(629.0)
789
(704.1)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Barry Enright 673 20 652.9
2 John Ely 650 19 631.0
3 Thad Weber 654 24 630.1
4 Todd Redmond 648 22 625.9
5 D.J. Mitchell 649 24 624.9
6 Eric Hacker 636 45 591.1
7 Adam Warren 606 17 588.9
8 Pedro Villarreal 576 3 573.0
9 John Danks 801 238 563.4
10 Roberto Hernandez 623 62 560.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wei-Yin Chen 100 818 718.0
2 Yu Darvish 100 816 716.0
3 Roberto Hernandez 756 62 694.0
4 Lucas Harrell 207 827 620.0
5 Matt Moore 183 759 576.0
6 Félix Doubront 161 709 548.0
7 Lance Lynn 198 744 546.0
8 Brad Penny 669 133 536.0
9 Carl Pavano 801 268 533.0
10 Brett Myers 790 272 518.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lucas Harrell 172 827 655.0
2 John Danks 788 238 549.8
3 Scott Diamond 180 714 533.9
4 Carl Pavano 800 268 532.3
5 Wade Miley 286 807 520.6
6 Cory Luebke 643 130 512.9
7 Jair Jurrjens 705 227 477.5
8 Jeff Samardzija 247 723 475.8
9 Jose Quintana 100 568 468.0
10 Dustin Moseley 490 22 467.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Roberto Hernandez 784 62 721.9
2 Brad Hand 681 23 658.1
3 Barry Enright 673 20 652.9
4 Julio Teheran 668 24 644.0
5 Brandon Dickson 675 32 643.0
6 John Ely 650 19 631.0
7 Thad Weber 654 24 630.1
8 Todd Redmond 648 22 625.9
9 D.J. Mitchell 649 24 624.9
10 Eric Hacker 636 45 591.1

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yu Darvish 100 780 816 716.0 35.6 680.4
2 Wei-Yin Chen 100 697 818 718.0 120.9 597.1
3 Matt Moore 183 640 759 576.0 118.7 457.3
4 Adam Wainwright 338 717 831 493.0 113.7 379.3
5 Chris Sale 271 613 772 501.0 158.9 342.1
6 Tommy Milone 319 639 791 472.0 152.4 319.6
7 Brett Myers 790 473 272 518.0 200.7 317.3
8 Jose Quintana 100 417 568 468.0 151.0 317.0
9 Henderson Alvarez 401 706 807 406.0 100.8 305.2
10 Félix Doubront 161 458 709 548.0 251.0 297.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 100 417 568 468.0 151.0 317.0
2 Eric Stults 100 391 413 313.0 21.9 291.1
3 Joe Kelly 100 540 457 357.0 83.1 273.9
4 Craig Stammen 91 348 370 279.0 22.5 256.5
5 Cole De Vries 100 394 375 275.0 19.1 255.9
6 Scott Diamond 180 424 714 533.9 289.5 244.4
7 Zach McAllister 217 454 543 325.8 88.9 237.0
8 Tommy Hunter 155 379 573 418.2 193.6 224.6
9 Lucas Harrell 172 394 827 655.0 432.5 222.5
10 Drew Smyly 100 514 416 316.0 98.0 218.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brandon Dickson 675 395 32 643.0 363.2 279.8
2 Brett Myers 729 473 272 457.0 200.7 256.3
3 Clayton Mortensen 629 375 173 456.1 202.0 254.1
4 Casey Coleman 664 421 119 545.1 302.4 242.7
5 Jeanmar Gómez 789 547 395 394.1 152.4 241.7
6 Martín Pérez 618 377 177 440.9 199.5 241.4
7 Ryan Verdugo 553 323 15 537.9 308.2 229.7
8 Jeurys Familia 556 329 52 504.0 276.7 227.3
9 Brad Mills 596 370 18 578.0 351.9 226.1
10 Rick Van Den Hurk 578 353 16 562.0 336.8 225.2

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez 0.4175
0.3082
(30.0)
0.3071
(35.5)
0.3137
(29.3)
0.3027
(30.6)
Gio Gonzalez 0.2597
0.2826
(33.2)
0.3019
(36.2)
0.2872
(34.3)
0.2779
(32.4)
Kris Medlen 0.2340
0.2801
(33.0)
0.3132
(42.2)
0.2786
(30.6)
0.2815
(35.7)
Ricky Romero 0.3586
0.2910
(41.5)
0.3054
(42.5)
0.2994
(37.3)
0.2826
(45.4)
Tommy Hanson 0.3473
0.2758
(41.0)
0.2973
(36.5)
0.2873
(34.8)
0.2644
(46.9)
Kyle Lohse 0.2761
0.2991
(35.0)
0.3200
(39.6)
0.3073
(39.3)
0.2910
(31.2)
Tim Lincecum 0.3309
0.2665
(38.7)
0.2894
(32.6)
0.2762
(33.4)
0.2568
(43.6)
Iván Nova 0.3671
0.3020
(35.6)
0.3124
(39.5)
0.3044
(36.3)
0.2996
(34.6)
Randy Wolf 0.3735
0.3069
(34.3)
0.3176
(37.7)
0.3198
(27.6)
0.2941
(40.7)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.3566
0.2835
(44.7)
0.3032
(41.4)
0.2945
(38.5)
0.2726
(50.5)
Jon Lester 0.3332
0.2817
(29.8)
0.3003
(27.2)
0.2871
(28.0)
0.2763
(31.3)
Fernando Rodney 0.1901
0.2968
(35.0)
0.3215
(37.6)
0.2966
(34.1)
0.2970
(36.1)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nick Blackburn 0.3175 0.4050 31.9
2 R.A. Dickey 0.2935 0.2778 30.8
3 Wade Miley 0.3128 0.2943 29.0
4 Chris Tillman 0.3400 0.2779 27.6
5 Dan Haren 0.2769 0.3297 26.4
6 Luke Hochevar 0.3030 0.3530 26.0
7 Aroldis Chapman 0.2841 0.2091 25.5
8 Tommy Hunter 0.3050 0.3669 25.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 A.J. Burnett 0.3402 0.2939 41.0
2 Wade Miley 0.3345 0.2943 34.0
3 Ian Kennedy 0.2929 0.3302 31.9
4 Jonathon Niese 0.3247 0.2882 30.2
5 Philip Humber 0.2979 0.3634 29.4
6 Henderson Alvarez 0.3121 0.3501 29.1
7 Dan Haren 0.2917 0.3297 27.0
8 Daniel Bard 0.2749 0.3738 26.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Fiers 0.1839 0.3013 55.6
2 R.A. Dickey 0.3087 0.2778 41.8
3 Nick Blackburn 0.3196 0.4050 32.4
4 Justin Verlander 0.2843 0.2650 32.1
5 Tommy Hunter 0.2969 0.3669 32.0
6 Jered Weaver 0.2931 0.2666 30.1
7 Matt Cain 0.2943 0.2742 30.0
8 Clayton Kershaw 0.2744 0.2580 27.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wade Miley 0.3187 0.2943 36.8
2 Ian Kennedy 0.2722 0.3302 33.1
3 Nick Blackburn 0.3155 0.4050 31.1
4 Jeremy Guthrie 0.2904 0.3509 31.0
5 Lucas Harrell 0.3165 0.3003 31.0
6 Chris Tillman 0.3457 0.2779 30.9
7 Dan Haren 0.2694 0.3297 29.2
8 Aroldis Chapman 0.2935 0.2091 29.1

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 A.J. Burnett 0.3402 0.2979 0.2939 41.0 18.3 22.7
2 Mike Minor 0.3333 0.2871 0.3016 24.5 2.2 22.3
3 Christian Friedrich 0.3145 0.3515 0.3651 18.3 1.5 16.9
4 Chris Capuano 0.3280 0.2928 0.3052 20.2 4.1 16.0
5 Will Smith 0.3145 0.3340 0.3659 19.6 5.7 13.9
6 Rhiner Cruz 0.3145 0.3532 0.3753 14.9 1.2 13.7
7 Aaron Harang 0.3335 0.3011 0.3106 19.5 6.4 13.2
8 Philip Humber 0.2979 0.3107 0.3634 29.4 16.3 13.1
9 James Shields 0.3098 0.2805 0.2961 14.7 1.8 12.9
10 Chris Young 0.2993 0.3098 0.3318 15.1 2.2 12.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Fiers 0.1839 0.2380 0.3013 55.6 24.7 30.9
2 Justin Verlander 0.2843 0.2663 0.2650 32.1 18.0 14.1
3 Matt Cain 0.2943 0.2750 0.2742 30.0 16.0 14.0
4 Christian Friedrich 0.3145 0.3515 0.3651 13.7 1.5 12.2
5 Clayton Kershaw 0.2744 0.2581 0.2580 27.6 15.9 11.8
6 Jered Weaver 0.2931 0.2749 0.2666 30.1 19.1 11.0
7 R.A. Dickey 0.3087 0.2935 0.2778 41.8 30.8 11.0
8 Rhiner Cruz 0.3145 0.3532 0.3753 11.8 1.2 10.6
9 Jeremy Hellickson 0.3121 0.2949 0.3084 13.2 3.0 10.3
10 Mat Latos 0.2921 0.2774 0.2946 10.1 0.3 9.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Harrell 0.3165 0.3034 0.3003 31.0 17.0 13.9
2 Josh Johnson 0.2443 0.2638 0.2969 25.1 12.5 12.6
3 Jeremy Guthrie 0.2904 0.3076 0.3509 31.0 20.4 10.6
4 Mat Latos 0.2626 0.2774 0.2946 9.2 0.3 8.9
5 Clay Buchholz 0.2809 0.2956 0.3275 20.3 11.6 8.8
6 Ian Kennedy 0.2722 0.2855 0.3302 33.1 24.5 8.6
7 Craig Stammen 0.3104 0.2920 0.2806 18.9 10.7 8.2
8 Wade Miley 0.3187 0.3128 0.2943 36.8 29.0 7.8
9 Johan Santana 0.2720 0.2909 0.3228 14.7 7.2 7.5
10 Adam Ottavino 0.3221 0.3051 0.3149 9.6 2.6 7.0

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ricky Romero 0.1496
0.1884
(46.8)
0.1919
(41.8)
0.1890
(43.5)
0.1877
(46.4)
Wade Davis 0.3063
0.1499
(39.4)
0.1540
(41.0)
0.1506
(40.5)
0.1493
(39.5)
Wandy Rodriguez 0.1589
0.1964
(48.3)
0.2068
(49.1)
0.1932
(41.5)
0.1995
(51.2)
Henderson Alvarez 0.0979
0.1343
(43.7)
0.1721
(66.5)
0.1379
(42.9)
0.1307
(40.8)
Clayton Richard 0.1176
0.1551
(50.2)
0.1651
(50.7)
0.1546
(45.6)
0.1555
(50.7)
R.A. Dickey 0.2481
0.1439
(80.2)
0.1569
(77.0)
0.1392
(88.8)
0.1486
(75.7)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1776
0.2193
(47.8)
0.2173
(38.5)
0.2185
(43.4)
0.2201
(48.5)
Yu Darvish 0.2708
0.1975
(45.4)
0.1978
(52.9)
0.1920
(53.7)
0.2031
(40.7)
Max Scherzer 0.2935
0.2086
(52.9)
0.2122
(57.6)
0.2041
(60.1)
0.2131
(49.3)
Derek Lowe 0.0859
0.1393
(45.4)
0.1646
(55.6)
0.1381
(41.8)
0.1404
(46.3)
Jon Lester 0.1895
0.2298
(50.8)
0.2345
(46.6)
0.2297
(46.7)
0.2299
(51.0)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Félix Doubront 0.1547 0.2355 44.8
2 Ricky Nolasco 0.1860 0.1502 44.5
3 Wei-Yin Chen 0.1210 0.1883 40.5
4 Steve Delabar 0.1707 0.3358 40.4
5 Zack Greinke 0.2584 0.2304 39.7
6 Chris Resop 0.2417 0.1394 39.6
7 Drew Smyly 0.1187 0.2260 37.3
8 Aroldis Chapman 0.2938 0.4420 36.0
9 Iván Nova 0.1403 0.2045 34.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aroldis Chapman 0.2477 0.4420 51.4
2 Craig Kimbrel 0.2964 0.5022 45.6
3 Ricky Nolasco 0.1927 0.1502 42.1
4 Dallas Keuchel 0.1978 0.1008 39.7
5 David Hernandez 0.2051 0.3525 38.7
6 Jason Grilli 0.2057 0.3689 37.8
7 Steve Delabar 0.1901 0.3358 37.7
8 Aaron Cook 0.1314 0.0487 37.4
9 Stephen Strasburg 0.2365 0.3017 37.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0924 0.1883 67.7
2 Aaron Laffey 0.1978 0.1119 42.5
3 Félix Doubront 0.1630 0.2355 42.1
4 Dallas Keuchel 0.1978 0.1008 41.5
5 Jose Quintana 0.1978 0.1426 38.8
6 Iván Nova 0.1404 0.2045 38.2
7 Chris Resop 0.2333 0.1394 35.3
8 Craig Kimbrel 0.3401 0.5022 34.4
9 Doug Fister 0.1394 0.2036 34.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Greinke 0.2728 0.2304 52.3
2 Ricky Nolasco 0.1951 0.1502 52.1
3 Félix Doubront 0.1465 0.2355 50.5
4 Lance Lynn 0.1638 0.2419 44.9
5 Chris Resop 0.2500 0.1394 42.4
6 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.1250 0.2669 40.5
7 Steve Delabar 0.1707 0.3358 40.3
8 Aroldis Chapman 0.2823 0.4420 39.2
9 Drew Smyly 0.1187 0.2260 37.2

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 0.1978 0.1343 0.1426 36.0 5.3 30.7
2 Dallas Keuchel 0.1978 0.1156 0.1008 39.7 12.2 27.4
3 Scott Diamond 0.1606 0.1141 0.1261 30.5 4.1 26.4
4 Henderson Alvarez 0.1721 0.1343 0.0979 66.5 43.7 22.8
5 Stephen Strasburg 0.2365 0.2582 0.3017 37.2 16.9 20.3
6 Gio Gonzalez 0.2117 0.2267 0.2518 26.2 6.1 20.1
7 Kenley Jansen 0.2876 0.3539 0.3929 24.5 5.4 19.1
8 Brad Brach 0.1905 0.2415 0.2679 19.4 2.4 16.9
9 Craig Kimbrel 0.2964 0.3590 0.5022 45.6 29.0 16.7
10 Jonathan Papelbon 0.2528 0.3003 0.3239 17.9 1.7 16.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 0.1978 0.1343 0.1426 38.8 5.3 33.5
2 Aaron Laffey 0.1978 0.1152 0.1119 42.5 9.0 33.5
3 Dallas Keuchel 0.1978 0.1156 0.1008 41.5 12.2 29.3
4 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0924 0.1210 0.1883 67.7 40.5 27.2
5 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.1176 0.1494 0.1946 33.2 14.3 18.9
6 Lucas Harrell 0.1782 0.1515 0.1693 18.2 0.1 18.1
7 Cole De Vries 0.1978 0.1218 0.1547 21.1 5.7 15.4
8 Eric Stults 0.1978 0.1560 0.1332 32.1 16.7 15.4
9 Joe Kelly 0.1978 0.1315 0.1641 21.4 6.8 14.5
10 Samuel Deduno 0.1978 0.1517 0.1643 16.2 1.8 14.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Harrell 0.1248 0.1515 0.1693 22.1 0.1 22.0
2 Lance Lynn 0.1638 0.1811 0.2419 44.9 32.1 12.8
3 Zack Greinke 0.2728 0.2584 0.2304 52.3 39.7 12.6
4 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.1250 0.1568 0.2669 40.5 30.1 10.4
5 Rafael Soriano 0.2835 0.2483 0.2473 15.1 5.2 9.9
6 Craig Stammen 0.1424 0.1686 0.2351 27.7 18.1 9.7
7 Anthony Swarzak 0.1097 0.1331 0.1501 9.3 0.3 9.1
8 Mat Latos 0.2362 0.2259 0.2156 33.0 24.0 9.0
9 Adam Ottavino 0.1501 0.1744 0.2389 24.1 15.9 8.2
10 Esmil Rogers 0.1498 0.1727 0.2385 24.7 16.7 7.9

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Aaron Harang 0.1081
0.0711
(31.8)
0.0774
(25.5)
0.0739
(29.0)
0.0684
(33.4)
Ricky Romero 0.1267
0.0885
(34.5)
0.0898
(31.9)
0.0903
(32.4)
0.0867
(35.3)
Tim Lincecum 0.1091
0.0846
(23.1)
0.0879
(18.8)
0.0855
(21.6)
0.0837
(23.2)
Scott Diamond 0.0434
0.0857
(27.7)
0.0873
(30.2)
0.0878
(29.8)
0.0837
(26.9)
Jeff Samardzija 0.0775
0.1239
(31.1)
0.1129
(24.4)
0.1194
(28.4)
0.1285
(34.9)
Clayton Richard 0.0462
0.0907
(37.4)
0.0899
(38.3)
0.0913
(38.7)
0.0900
(37.5)
Yu Darvish 0.1091
0.0651
(38.7)
0.0798
(25.2)
0.0749
(30.0)
0.0553
(46.1)
Francisco Liriano 0.1255
0.1000
(20.1)
0.0981
(20.2)
0.1002
(19.4)
0.0997
(19.8)
Wade Miley 0.0458
0.0965
(38.1)
0.0898
(34.1)
0.0974
(39.5)
0.0956
(38.0)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1180
0.0944
(21.8)
0.0947
(20.1)
0.0950
(20.6)
0.0937
(21.7)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Sale 0.1103 0.0661 31.5
2 Joe Kelly 0.1352 0.0788 24.2
3 Steve Delabar 0.1742 0.0949 20.8
4 Justin Masterson 0.0780 0.0971 20.5
5 Gavin Floyd 0.0648 0.0870 18.6
6 Daniel Bard 0.0921 0.1552 18.4
7 Carlos Zambrano 0.1002 0.1269 17.9
8 Fernando Rodney 0.1192 0.0532 17.6
9 Phil Hughes 0.0813 0.0564 17.4
10 C.J. Wilson 0.0885 0.1052 17.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Samuel Deduno 0.0862 0.1527 23.7
2 Bruce Chen 0.0835 0.0568 20.6
3 Matt Moore 0.0820 0.1067 20.1
4 Kyle Lohse 0.0685 0.0440 19.8
5 Tommy Milone 0.0721 0.0455 19.7
6 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0838 0.0585 19.3
7 Daniel Bard 0.0874 0.1552 19.2
8 Bartolo Colon 0.0679 0.0362 19.2
9 A.J. Burnett 0.0966 0.0729 18.8
10 Phil Hughes 0.0809 0.0564 18.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Sale 0.1084 0.0661 30.6
2 Samuel Deduno 0.0798 0.1527 26.2
3 Carlos Zambrano 0.0961 0.1269 19.8
4 Edinson Volquez 0.1108 0.1309 18.3
5 Phil Hughes 0.0814 0.0564 18.2
6 Jeremy Hefner 0.0906 0.0441 17.9
7 Johnny Cueto 0.0776 0.0552 17.6
8 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0825 0.0585 17.5
9 Jake Arrieta 0.1076 0.0706 17.1
10 Craig Stammen 0.0543 0.0973 16.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Sale 0.1123 0.0661 33.6
2 Joe Kelly 0.1352 0.0788 24.5
3 Justin Masterson 0.0728 0.0971 24.5
4 Steve Delabar 0.1742 0.0949 21.0
5 Daniel Bard 0.0836 0.1552 20.6
6 Henderson Alvarez 0.0455 0.0669 19.4
7 Gavin Floyd 0.0629 0.0870 19.4
8 Aroldis Chapman 0.1556 0.0833 19.2
9 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.0486 0.0829 19.1
10 Fernando Rodney 0.1228 0.0532 18.9

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matt Moore 0.0820 0.1124 0.1067 20.1 1.7 18.4
2 Tommy Milone 0.0721 0.0516 0.0455 19.7 2.1 17.6
3 Samuel Deduno 0.0862 0.1327 0.1527 23.7 8.1 15.5
4 Héctor Santiago 0.0833 0.1215 0.1307 15.0 3.9 11.1
5 Rex Brothers 0.0909 0.1271 0.1254 10.7 0.5 10.2
6 Jerome Williams 0.0836 0.0684 0.0612 11.9 2.2 9.7
7 Jake Peavy 0.0705 0.0621 0.0556 11.7 2.8 8.9
8 Drew Pomeranz 0.0822 0.1046 0.1060 11.0 2.1 8.9
9 Blake Beavan 0.0611 0.0493 0.0376 13.9 5.2 8.6
10 Kevin Correia 0.0766 0.0682 0.0632 8.5 1.1 7.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Samuel Deduno 0.0798 0.1327 0.1527 26.2 8.1 18.1
2 Héctor Santiago 0.0798 0.1215 0.1307 16.4 3.9 12.5
3 Madison Bumgarner 0.0739 0.0653 0.0577 11.5 3.5 8.0
4 Clayton Kershaw 0.0840 0.0766 0.0699 10.3 2.9 7.4
5 Alex Hinshaw 0.0798 0.1899 0.1556 10.6 4.2 6.4
6 R.A. Dickey 0.0704 0.0645 0.0583 8.8 2.6 6.2
7 Matt Harvey 0.0798 0.1052 0.1061 7.1 1.1 6.0
8 Erasmo Ramírez 0.0798 0.0521 0.0504 6.4 0.4 5.9
9 Steve Johnson 0.0798 0.1164 0.1192 6.3 0.9 5.4
10 Blake Beavan 0.0563 0.0493 0.0376 10.3 5.2 5.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0546 0.0663 0.0697 14.6 5.6 8.9
2 Lucas Harrell 0.1086 0.1003 0.0943 9.6 2.1 7.5
3 Henderson Alvarez 0.0455 0.0556 0.0669 19.4 11.9 7.5
4 Yu Darvish 0.0553 0.0651 0.1091 46.1 38.7 7.3
5 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.0486 0.0602 0.0829 19.1 13.6 5.6
6 Trevor Cahill 0.0782 0.0844 0.0882 10.7 6.1 4.6
7 Mat Latos 0.0700 0.0756 0.0746 6.2 2.1 4.1
8 Chris Young 0.1050 0.0975 0.0730 14.4 10.3 4.1
9 Justin Masterson 0.0728 0.0780 0.0971 24.5 20.5 4.0
10 Lance Lynn 0.0951 0.0906 0.0860 4.8 0.8 3.9

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Will Ohman 0.0536
0.0105
(4.9)
0.0084
(5.1)
0.0097
(5.0)
0.0114
(4.9)
Trevor Cahill 0.0131
0.0080
(5.1)
0.0075
(4.8)
0.0079
(4.7)
0.0080
(5.2)
Clay Buchholz 0.0150
0.0066
(7.5)
0.0060
(7.3)
0.0072
(6.6)
0.0059
(8.2)
Daniel Bard 0.0289
0.0059
(6.6)
0.0070
(6.1)
0.0085
(5.8)
0.0033
(7.4)
Luke Hochevar 0.0163
0.0088
(6.7)
0.0083
(6.4)
0.0091
(6.1)
0.0086
(7.0)
Henderson Alvarez 0.0037
0.0131
(6.7)
0.0100
(5.0)
0.0114
(5.9)
0.0147
(7.9)
Lucas Harrell 0.0012
0.0107
(7.0)
0.0097
(6.9)
0.0101
(7.0)
0.0113
(7.4)
Gavin Floyd 0.0193
0.0089
(8.3)
0.0095
(7.1)
0.0090
(7.8)
0.0088
(8.5)
Jeff Francis 0.0159
0.0068
(5.1)
0.0058
(5.1)
0.0072
(4.6)
0.0065
(5.3)
James Shields 0.0117
0.0050
(7.3)
0.0048
(6.6)
0.0055
(6.2)
0.0044
(7.9)
Ricky Nolasco 0.0096
0.0044
(5.2)
0.0039
(4.8)
0.0049
(4.2)
0.0039
(5.7)
Jon Lester 0.0046
0.0111
(4.8)
0.0108
(5.4)
0.0098
(4.2)
0.0124
(5.8)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Félix Hernández 0.0075 0.0128 5.9
2 Wade Miley 0.0108 0.0025 5.9
3 Ian Kennedy 0.0108 0.0156 5.2
4 Carlos Zambrano 0.0095 0.0169 5.0
5 Tommy Milone 0.0120 0.0051 4.7
6 Jose Quintana 0.0144 0.0053 4.6
7 Jarrod Parker 0.0111 0.0040 4.6
8 Anthony Swarzak 0.0115 0.0000 4.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kris Medlen 0.0099 0.0000 5.1
2 Jeff Samardzija 0.0125 0.0055 5.0
3 Ian Kennedy 0.0101 0.0156 5.0
4 Shawn Camp 0.0147 0.0000 4.8
5 Blake Beavan 0.0084 0.0157 4.7
6 Wesley Wright 0.0063 0.0269 4.6
7 Alex Cobb 0.0080 0.0158 4.5
8 Brandon McCarthy 0.0033 0.0128 4.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ian Kennedy 0.0101 0.0156 5.3
2 Wade Miley 0.0094 0.0025 5.2
3 Félix Hernández 0.0079 0.0128 4.9
4 Carlos Zambrano 0.0092 0.0169 4.8
5 Cliff Lee 0.0060 0.0000 4.7
6 Héctor Santiago 0.0081 0.0229 4.6
7 Justin Germano 0.0081 0.0219 4.5
8 Tommy Milone 0.0109 0.0051 4.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wade Miley 0.0121 0.0025 6.9
2 Félix Hernández 0.0071 0.0128 6.4
3 Jarrod Parker 0.0125 0.0040 5.5
4 Tommy Milone 0.0130 0.0051 5.4
5 Jeff Samardzija 0.0140 0.0055 5.3
6 Carlos Zambrano 0.0098 0.0169 4.9
7 Jake Westbrook 0.0053 0.0107 4.9
8 Brandon McCarthy 0.0036 0.0128 4.8

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Steve Delabar 0.0083 0.0174 0.0182 2.8 0.5 2.3
2 Matt Moore 0.0055 0.0113 0.0092 2.9 0.8 2.1
3 Matt Harrison 0.0047 0.0034 0.0011 3.1 1.1 2.0
4 Zack Greinke 0.0072 0.0064 0.0023 4.2 2.7 1.5
5 Kris Medlen 0.0099 0.0082 0.0000 5.1 3.7 1.4
6 Héctor Santiago 0.0083 0.0138 0.0229 4.5 3.1 1.4
7 Johan Santana 0.0061 0.0043 0.0000 3.0 1.6 1.4
8 A.J. Burnett 0.0134 0.0128 0.0106 2.4 1.0 1.3
9 Wesley Wright 0.0063 0.0132 0.0269 4.6 3.3 1.3
10 Dan Haren 0.0061 0.0053 0.0040 1.5 0.2 1.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Justin Germano 0.0081 0.0190 0.0219 4.5 1.2 3.3
2 Steve Delabar 0.0081 0.0174 0.0182 2.9 0.5 2.4
3 Matt Harrison 0.0053 0.0034 0.0011 3.3 1.1 2.2
4 Héctor Santiago 0.0081 0.0138 0.0229 4.6 3.1 1.6
5 Corey Kluber 0.0081 0.0137 0.0142 1.8 0.4 1.4
6 Jason Vargas 0.0057 0.0048 0.0034 1.7 0.4 1.3
7 Johan Santana 0.0059 0.0043 0.0000 2.8 1.6 1.1
8 Josh Johnson 0.0073 0.0065 0.0050 1.5 0.4 1.1
9 Samuel Deduno 0.0081 0.0119 0.0144 2.3 1.2 1.1
10 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0099 0.0091 0.0061 2.8 1.7 1.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jeremy Guthrie 0.0182 0.0146 0.0114 4.4 1.8 2.7
2 Alfredo Aceves 0.0256 0.0208 0.0166 2.8 1.1 1.7
3 Mat Latos 0.0012 0.0028 0.0047 3.9 2.5 1.5
4 Chris Sale 0.0045 0.0061 0.0078 3.4 2.1 1.3
5 Stephen Strasburg 0.0032 0.0049 0.0061 2.7 1.4 1.2
6 Henderson Alvarez 0.0147 0.0131 0.0037 7.9 6.7 1.2
7 Alex Burnett 0.0214 0.0174 0.0097 3.2 2.1 1.2
8 Phil Hughes 0.0055 0.0068 0.0074 2.4 1.2 1.2
9 Carlos Marmol 0.0274 0.0224 0.0081 4.5 3.3 1.2
10 Jeff Samardzija 0.0140 0.0122 0.0055 5.3 4.1 1.2

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Aaron Harang 0.0247
0.0387
(13.5)
0.0390
(13.8)
0.0415
(15.2)
0.0359
(11.8)
Gio Gonzalez 0.0169
0.0311
(14.4)
0.0301
(13.6)
0.0305
(13.2)
0.0316
(15.4)
Derek Holland 0.0604
0.0372
(14.5)
0.0376
(14.2)
0.0382
(14.4)
0.0363
(14.7)
Jason Marquis 0.0542
0.0280
(12.9)
0.0275
(13.2)
0.0292
(12.7)
0.0268
(13.2)
Iván Nova 0.0529
0.0306
(14.3)
0.0273
(16.7)
0.0285
(16.4)
0.0326
(12.3)
Tommy Hunter 0.0688
0.0397
(14.8)
0.0413
(13.9)
0.0384
(16.0)
0.0410
(13.7)
Philip Humber 0.0699
0.0395
(12.5)
0.0285
(17.6)
0.0402
(12.6)
0.0389
(12.5)
Ervin Santana 0.0695
0.0411
(19.2)
0.0381
(21.5)
0.0426
(18.7)
0.0397
(19.8)
Kevin Millwood 0.0249
0.0392
(12.1)
0.0417
(13.9)
0.0389
(11.4)
0.0394
(12.7)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jose Quintana 0.0548 0.0317 15.0
2 Félix Doubront 0.0305 0.0515 12.6
3 Steve Delabar 0.0328 0.0795 11.9
4 Johnny Cueto 0.0328 0.0228 11.8
5 Carlos Villanueva 0.0406 0.0657 11.4
6 Eric Stults 0.0447 0.0213 11.0
7 Justin Verlander 0.0372 0.0291 10.8
8 Ricky Nolasco 0.0370 0.0276 10.5
9 Hector Noesí 0.0348 0.0610 10.4
10 Kelvin Herrera 0.0431 0.0164 10.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edinson Volquez 0.0452 0.0272 17.1
2 A.J. Burnett 0.0464 0.0300 16.8
3 Wade Miley 0.0367 0.0224 14.2
4 Carlos Villanueva 0.0360 0.0657 13.8
5 Jarrod Parker 0.0347 0.0202 13.4
6 Jason Vargas 0.0328 0.0509 13.1
7 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0256 0.0447 12.7
8 Bronson Arroyo 0.0509 0.0390 12.7
9 Phil Hughes 0.0402 0.0585 12.2
10 Travis Wood 0.0316 0.0534 12.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Verlander 0.0441 0.0291 16.7
2 Johnny Cueto 0.0391 0.0228 16.6
3 Clayton Kershaw 0.0394 0.0265 13.9
4 Félix Doubront 0.0303 0.0515 13.3
5 Jered Weaver 0.0504 0.0365 12.1
6 Nick Blackburn 0.0304 0.0594 12.1
7 Carlos Villanueva 0.0400 0.0657 12.1
8 David Price 0.0388 0.0282 10.9
9 Luke Hochevar 0.0303 0.0464 10.9
10 Steve Delabar 0.0375 0.0795 10.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jose Quintana 0.0548 0.0317 15.4
2 Jason Vargas 0.0318 0.0509 13.4
3 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0243 0.0447 13.3
4 Bronson Arroyo 0.0507 0.0390 13.0
5 Travis Wood 0.0298 0.0534 12.8
6 Félix Doubront 0.0306 0.0515 12.0
7 Steve Delabar 0.0328 0.0795 11.7
8 Liam Hendriks 0.0226 0.0565 11.4
9 Tommy Hanson 0.0327 0.0515 11.4
10 Eric Stults 0.0447 0.0213 11.3

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Edinson Volquez 0.0452 0.0282 0.0272 17.1 3.4 13.6
2 A.J. Burnett 0.0464 0.0344 0.0300 16.8 6.5 10.3
3 Jarrod Parker 0.0347 0.0246 0.0202 13.4 5.8 7.6
4 Wade Miley 0.0367 0.0274 0.0224 14.2 6.7 7.6
5 Alex White 0.0536 0.0396 0.0383 8.5 2.1 6.4
6 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0375 0.0452 0.0482 6.0 0.2 5.8
7 Luis Mendoza 0.0338 0.0258 0.0280 6.4 0.7 5.7
8 Philip Humber 0.0285 0.0395 0.0699 17.6 12.5 5.1
9 Jason Vargas 0.0328 0.0385 0.0509 13.1 8.1 5.0
10 Mat Latos 0.0309 0.0396 0.0413 6.1 1.3 4.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Fiers 0.0171 0.0293 0.0328 7.1 0.1 7.0
2 Matt Cain 0.0406 0.0326 0.0337 8.2 1.9 6.3
3 Jered Weaver 0.0504 0.0416 0.0365 12.1 6.2 5.9
4 Justin Verlander 0.0441 0.0372 0.0291 16.7 10.8 5.9
5 Clayton Kershaw 0.0394 0.0326 0.0265 13.9 8.4 5.4
6 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0391 0.0452 0.0482 5.4 0.2 5.2
7 Johnny Cueto 0.0391 0.0328 0.0228 16.6 11.8 4.9
8 Josh Johnson 0.0326 0.0257 0.0248 8.2 3.3 4.8
9 Henderson Alvarez 0.0289 0.0336 0.0432 9.6 5.1 4.4
10 Joe Kelly 0.0375 0.0283 0.0292 5.0 1.1 3.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Fiers 0.0418 0.0293 0.0328 7.0 0.1 6.9
2 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0515 0.0452 0.0482 5.9 0.2 5.7
3 Jason Vargas 0.0318 0.0385 0.0509 13.4 8.1 5.3
4 Tommy Milone 0.0243 0.0304 0.0391 8.6 4.3 4.4
5 Jeremy Hellickson 0.0327 0.0391 0.0451 6.3 2.1 4.2
6 Alex White 0.0475 0.0396 0.0383 6.0 2.1 3.9
7 Cliff Lee 0.0276 0.0327 0.0425 9.3 5.5 3.8
8 Ian Kennedy 0.0345 0.0393 0.0435 4.6 0.8 3.8
9 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0243 0.0296 0.0447 13.3 9.6 3.8
10 Travis Wood 0.0298 0.0361 0.0534 12.8 9.1 3.7

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Travis Wood 0.2438
0.2915
(31.8)
0.2962
(34.9)
0.2951
(31.6)
0.2879
(32.3)
Jonathon Niese 0.2724
0.3049
(26.6)
0.3183
(37.3)
0.3067
(24.9)
0.3032
(28.7)
Rick Porcello 0.3443
0.2996
(34.0)
0.3043
(30.2)
0.3050
(32.9)
0.2942
(34.8)
Iván Nova 0.3313
0.2909
(29.3)
0.2873
(31.9)
0.2967
(27.9)
0.2850
(30.4)
Brandon Beachy 0.2000
0.2862
(27.9)
0.3041
(33.7)
0.2831
(25.6)
0.2892
(30.3)
Randy Wolf 0.3372
0.2809
(38.5)
0.2806
(38.6)
0.2919
(33.6)
0.2698
(43.2)
Mike Minor 0.2520
0.2912
(29.4)
0.3281
(56.4)
0.2867
(23.3)
0.2956
(35.9)
Vance Worley 0.3397
0.2900
(28.6)
0.2845
(31.7)
0.2946
(28.2)
0.2855
(28.7)
Ervin Santana 0.2414
0.2824
(32.3)
0.2857
(35.0)
0.2855
(31.7)
0.2793
(33.3)
Chris Tillman 0.2213
0.2960
(26.3)
0.3042
(29.3)
0.2926
(23.8)
0.2993
(29.0)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Fiers 0.2095 0.3192 58.5
2 Max Scherzer 0.2938 0.3333 30.1
3 Ross Detwiler 0.3014 0.2633 27.0
4 Tommy Hanson 0.2791 0.3139 25.5
5 Jered Weaver 0.2738 0.2405 25.5
6 Kyle Lohse 0.2903 0.2621 25.4
7 Jeff Francis 0.2910 0.3412 24.6
8 Roy Oswalt 0.2870 0.3778 23.6
9 Grant Balfour 0.2806 0.2011 23.3
10 Brandon Morrow 0.2966 0.2522 23.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Madison Bumgarner 0.3131 0.2763 32.4
2 Derek Holland 0.3025 0.2610 31.3
3 Ian Kennedy 0.2699 0.3057 30.9
4 Ricky Romero 0.2744 0.3111 29.3
5 Brandon Morrow 0.3066 0.2522 28.1
6 Kyle Lohse 0.2932 0.2621 28.1
7 Guillermo Moscoso 0.2556 0.3782 28.0
8 Jason Vargas 0.2834 0.2542 27.2
9 Edwin Jackson 0.3108 0.2783 26.8
10 Aaron Harang 0.3098 0.2772 26.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Fiers 0.1457 0.3192 95.0
2 Max Scherzer 0.2954 0.3333 31.9
3 Kyle Lohse 0.2974 0.2621 28.2
4 R.A. Dickey 0.3072 0.2754 27.0
5 Mark Buehrle 0.3054 0.2701 27.0
6 Jered Weaver 0.2787 0.2405 26.3
7 Jeff Francis 0.2930 0.3412 25.5
8 Tommy Hanson 0.2838 0.3139 24.9
9 Gio Gonzalez 0.2986 0.2667 24.0
10 Grant Balfour 0.2866 0.2011 24.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ricky Romero 0.2664 0.3111 32.4
2 Ross Detwiler 0.3035 0.2633 31.5
3 Scott Diamond 0.3302 0.2920 31.3
4 Jason Vargas 0.2803 0.2542 28.2
5 Max Scherzer 0.2922 0.3333 27.9
6 Ian Kennedy 0.2711 0.3057 26.1
7 Tommy Hanson 0.2743 0.3139 25.8
8 Brandon Morrow 0.2969 0.2522 25.4
9 Jered Weaver 0.2689 0.2405 25.1
10 Jake Peavy 0.2948 0.2724 24.8

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Minor 0.3281 0.2912 0.2520 56.4 29.4 27.0
2 Aaron Harang 0.3098 0.2903 0.2772 26.8 11.3 15.5
3 Madison Bumgarner 0.3131 0.2952 0.2763 32.4 17.1 15.3
4 Edwin Jackson 0.3108 0.2926 0.2783 26.8 12.3 14.5
5 Lucas Harrell 0.3151 0.2999 0.2891 22.7 9.9 12.7
6 Clayton Richard 0.2992 0.2861 0.2721 26.0 13.9 12.1
7 Christian Friedrich 0.2928 0.3246 0.3424 18.2 6.3 11.9
8 Chris Capuano 0.3023 0.2884 0.2840 16.1 4.6 11.5
9 Wei-Yin Chen 0.2928 0.2795 0.2740 16.5 5.5 11.0
10 Ian Kennedy 0.2699 0.2819 0.3057 30.9 20.3 10.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Fiers 0.1457 0.2095 0.3192 95.0 58.5 36.5
2 Christian Friedrich 0.2928 0.3246 0.3424 19.7 6.3 13.4
3 Clay Buchholz 0.3088 0.2887 0.2832 18.4 5.4 13.0
4 Trevor Cahill 0.3070 0.2897 0.2887 13.1 1.9 11.2
5 R.A. Dickey 0.3072 0.2920 0.2754 27.0 16.5 10.5
6 Corey Kluber 0.2928 0.3218 0.3418 14.5 5.3 9.3
7 Tommy Milone 0.2908 0.2985 0.3102 17.4 8.3 9.1
8 Will Smith 0.2928 0.3116 0.3402 19.8 10.8 9.0
9 Wei-Yin Chen 0.2923 0.2795 0.2740 12.8 5.5 7.3
10 Mark Buehrle 0.3054 0.2927 0.2701 27.0 19.7 7.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ricky Romero 0.2664 0.2871 0.3111 32.4 18.8 13.5
2 Jeremy Guthrie 0.2653 0.2848 0.2943 18.4 6.5 11.9
3 Scott Diamond 0.3302 0.3205 0.2920 31.3 21.3 10.1
4 Jon Lester 0.2784 0.2934 0.3116 24.2 14.8 9.3
5 Blake Beavan 0.2978 0.2902 0.2821 13.6 5.9 7.7
6 Josh Beckett 0.2753 0.2897 0.2942 9.7 2.4 7.3
7 Zach McAllister 0.3145 0.3058 0.3040 8.8 1.7 7.1
8 Josh Johnson 0.2774 0.2907 0.3018 15.0 7.9 7.1
9 Trevor Cahill 0.2725 0.2897 0.2887 8.8 1.9 6.9
10 Mike Minor 0.2956 0.2912 0.2520 35.9 29.4 6.4

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Travis Wood 0.1490
0.2915
(47.5)
0.2174
(45.0)
0.2951
(51.7)
0.2879
(48.1)
Edwin Jackson 0.1855
0.2926
(29.9)
0.2340
(39.1)
0.2976
(36.0)
0.2877
(29.5)
Brandon Morrow 0.1701
0.2966
(28.9)
0.2197
(25.5)
0.2963
(30.1)
0.2969
(31.3)
James McDonald 0.1838
0.2939
(29.1)
0.2270
(31.5)
0.2936
(30.9)
0.2942
(32.5)
Ervin Santana 0.1724
0.2824
(31.1)
0.2134
(32.1)
0.2855
(35.6)
0.2793
(32.1)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Fiers 0.2095 0.2345 50.8
2 Félix Hernández 0.2841 0.2539 36.7
3 A.J. Griffin 0.2203 0.2397 29.8
4 David Price 0.2782 0.2432 28.6
5 Ross Detwiler 0.3014 0.1906 28.5
6 Chris Tillman 0.2960 0.1475 27.5
7 Wade Miley 0.3058 0.2033 26.8
8 Jonny Venters 0.2860 0.3182 26.6
9 Mike Minor 0.2912 0.1855 26.5
10 Scott Diamond 0.3205 0.2150 25.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Minor 0.2344 0.1855 36.3
2 Gio Gonzalez 0.2330 0.1943 32.7
3 Madison Bumgarner 0.2391 0.2021 32.3
4 David Price 0.2040 0.2432 31.9
5 Aaron Harang 0.2329 0.1938 31.5
6 Derek Holland 0.2284 0.1928 26.7
7 Chris Tillman 0.2233 0.1475 26.6
8 Ross Detwiler 0.2279 0.1906 26.3
9 Guillermo Moscoso 0.1882 0.3013 25.9
10 Tommy Milone 0.2183 0.2508 24.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Fiers 0.1457 0.2345 83.7
2 Will Smith 0.2203 0.2646 43.9
3 Jose Quintana 0.2203 0.2266 41.4
4 Justin Germano 0.2203 0.2747 38.7
5 Joe Kelly 0.2203 0.2372 38.2
6 Christian Friedrich 0.2203 0.2529 37.4
7 Patrick Corbin 0.2203 0.2308 35.0
8 Kelvin Herrera 0.2203 0.2542 34.6
9 Gio Gonzalez 0.2986 0.1943 31.0
10 Kyle Lohse 0.2974 0.1955 30.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Félix Hernández 0.2790 0.2539 37.4
2 Scott Diamond 0.3302 0.2150 35.9
3 Ross Detwiler 0.3035 0.1906 33.0
4 Mike Minor 0.2956 0.1855 33.0
5 David Price 0.2715 0.2432 30.6
6 Chris Tillman 0.2993 0.1475 30.2
7 Jonny Venters 0.2708 0.3182 29.4
8 Wade Miley 0.3043 0.2033 29.2
9 A.J. Griffin 0.2203 0.2397 28.3
10 Randy Wolf 0.2698 0.2437 27.0

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1717 0.2701 0.2042 23.3 2.4 20.9
2 Clayton Richard 0.2327 0.2861 0.2072 24.2 8.8 15.3
3 Luke Hochevar 0.2046 0.2951 0.2252 15.7 0.5 15.2
4 Jeremy Guthrie 0.1941 0.2848 0.2140 15.0 1.2 13.8
5 Lance Lynn 0.2105 0.2977 0.2300 13.7 1.1 12.6
6 Madison Bumgarner 0.2391 0.2952 0.2021 32.3 20.3 12.0
7 Lucas Harrell 0.2466 0.2999 0.2319 12.9 1.1 11.8
8 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2081 0.2929 0.2285 15.6 3.8 11.8
9 Christian Friedrich 0.2203 0.3246 0.2529 11.9 0.9 11.0
10 Gio Gonzalez 0.2330 0.2899 0.1943 32.7 21.7 11.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 0.2203 0.2901 0.2266 41.4 3.3 38.1
2 Joe Kelly 0.2203 0.3076 0.2372 38.2 0.5 37.6
3 Christian Friedrich 0.2203 0.3246 0.2529 37.4 0.9 36.5
4 Will Smith 0.2203 0.3116 0.2646 43.9 8.8 35.1
5 Patrick Corbin 0.2203 0.3018 0.2308 35.0 0.8 34.2
6 Mike Fiers 0.1457 0.2095 0.2345 83.7 50.8 33.0
7 P.J. Walters 0.2203 0.3167 0.2656 30.3 4.9 25.4
8 Dallas Keuchel 0.2203 0.3012 0.2246 26.7 2.8 23.9
9 Héctor Santiago 0.2203 0.2999 0.2294 23.2 0.4 22.8
10 Justin Germano 0.2203 0.2905 0.2747 38.7 17.1 21.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ricky Romero 0.2664 0.2871 0.2267 20.9 7.3 13.5
2 Scott Diamond 0.3302 0.3205 0.2150 35.9 25.9 10.1
3 Jeremy Guthrie 0.2653 0.2848 0.2140 10.7 1.2 9.5
4 Jon Lester 0.2784 0.2934 0.2235 8.7 0.6 8.1
5 Blake Beavan 0.2978 0.2902 0.1984 22.0 14.3 7.7
6 Josh Beckett 0.2753 0.2897 0.2231 9.2 1.9 7.3
7 Zach McAllister 0.3145 0.3058 0.2160 18.3 11.2 7.1
8 Josh Johnson 0.2774 0.2907 0.2418 23.4 16.3 7.1
9 Mike Minor 0.2956 0.2912 0.1855 33.0 26.5 6.4
10 Clay Buchholz 0.2684 0.2887 0.2150 9.2 3.5 5.7

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Tommy Hanson 0.0905
0.0000
(20.7)
0.0655
(18.8)
0.0000
(25.2)
0.0000
(20.7)
Rick Porcello 0.0869
0.0000
(18.4)
0.0534
(26.0)
0.0000
(23.1)
0.0000
(18.4)
Iván Nova 0.1038
0.0000
(30.2)
0.0670
(27.4)
0.0000
(34.7)
0.0000
(30.2)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 A.J. Griffin 0.0652 0.0248 34.9
2 Travis Blackley 0.0652 0.0610 30.0
3 Miguel González 0.0652 0.0625 28.7
4 J.A. Happ 0.0000 0.0961 20.5
5 David Price 0.0000 0.0417 18.1
6 Ricky Romero 0.0000 0.0844 17.4
7 Kip Wells 0.0652 0.0325 16.2
8 Ian Kennedy 0.0000 0.0813 16.1
9 Travis Wood 0.0000 0.0880 16.0
10 Félix Hernández 0.0000 0.0473 15.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 A.J. Burnett 0.0771 0.0515 22.0
2 Chris Capuano 0.0841 0.0575 22.0
3 David Price 0.0662 0.0417 20.7
4 Mike Minor 0.0875 0.0605 19.9
5 Ricky Nolasco 0.0730 0.0505 19.0
6 Zack Greinke 0.0745 0.0539 18.1
7 Jonathon Niese 0.0739 0.0520 17.5
8 Ernesto Frieri 0.0798 0.0160 17.2
9 Kyle Lohse 0.0816 0.0621 17.0
10 Jon Lester 0.0609 0.0799 16.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 A.J. Griffin 0.0652 0.0248 32.9
2 Jose Quintana 0.0652 0.0654 32.5
3 David Phelps 0.0652 0.0462 31.7
4 Eric Stults 0.0652 0.0466 31.4
5 Aaron Laffey 0.0652 0.0559 28.6
6 Joe Kelly 0.0652 0.0601 28.6
7 Héctor Santiago 0.0652 0.0294 28.5
8 Samuel Deduno 0.0652 0.0405 28.5
9 Travis Blackley 0.0652 0.0610 27.4
10 Kelvin Herrera 0.0652 0.0458 26.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 A.J. Griffin 0.0652 0.0248 34.9
2 Travis Blackley 0.0652 0.0610 30.0
3 Miguel González 0.0652 0.0625 28.7
4 J.A. Happ 0.0000 0.0961 20.5
5 David Price 0.0000 0.0417 18.1
6 Ricky Romero 0.0000 0.0844 17.4
7 Kip Wells 0.0652 0.0325 16.2
8 Ian Kennedy 0.0000 0.0813 16.1
9 Travis Wood 0.0000 0.0880 16.0
10 Félix Hernández 0.0000 0.0473 15.1

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Minor 0.0875 0.0000 0.0605 19.9 2.1 17.8
2 Chris Capuano 0.0841 0.0000 0.0575 22.0 4.8 17.2
3 Kyle Lohse 0.0816 0.0000 0.0621 17.0 1.1 15.9
4 A.J. Burnett 0.0771 0.0000 0.0515 22.0 10.1 11.9
5 Gio Gonzalez 0.0505 0.0000 0.0667 13.1 2.7 10.4
6 Zack Greinke 0.0745 0.0000 0.0539 18.1 8.2 9.9
7 Ryan Vogelsong 0.0510 0.0000 0.0700 14.7 5.2 9.5
8 Jonathon Niese 0.0739 0.0000 0.0520 17.5 9.0 8.5
9 Ricky Nolasco 0.0730 0.0000 0.0505 19.0 10.7 8.2
10 Rick Porcello 0.0534 0.0000 0.0869 26.0 18.4 7.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 0.0652 0.0000 0.0654 32.5 1.2 31.3
2 Joe Kelly 0.0652 0.0000 0.0601 28.6 1.5 27.1
3 Aaron Laffey 0.0652 0.0000 0.0559 28.6 3.2 25.4
4 David Phelps 0.0652 0.0000 0.0462 31.7 7.1 24.5
5 Eric Stults 0.0652 0.0000 0.0466 31.4 6.9 24.5
6 Dallas Keuchel 0.0652 0.0000 0.0526 26.4 4.0 22.3
7 Cole De Vries 0.0652 0.0000 0.0609 23.1 0.9 22.2
8 Will Smith 0.0652 0.0000 0.0653 22.7 0.8 21.9
9 Samuel Deduno 0.0652 0.0000 0.0405 28.5 7.9 20.6
10 Kelvin Herrera 0.0652 0.0000 0.0458 26.4 6.0 20.4

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez 0.0329
0.0000
(8.4)
0.0059
(8.8)
0.0000
(8.6)
0.0000
(8.4)
Alex White 0.0184
0.0000
(5.2)
0.0075
(4.9)
0.0000
(5.5)
0.0000
(5.2)
Collin McHugh 0.0746
0.0000
(6.7)
0.0073
(6.6)
0.0073
(6.0)
0.0000
(6.7)
David Price 0.0000
0.0000
(6.0)
0.0074
(6.3)
0.0000
(5.4)
0.0000
(6.0)
Ian Kennedy 0.0146
0.0000
(6.8)
0.0055
(8.0)
0.0000
(7.4)
0.0000
(6.8)
Chad Billingsley 0.0202
0.0000
(8.3)
0.0078
(7.8)
0.0000
(8.7)
0.0000
(8.3)
Iván Nova 0.0140
0.0000
(5.1)
0.0043
(7.1)
0.0000
(5.6)
0.0000
(5.1)
Lance Lynn 0.0148
0.0000
(5.7)
0.0075
(5.3)
0.0000
(6.2)
0.0000
(5.7)
Shawn Camp 0.0245
0.0000
(5.7)
0.0101
(4.7)
0.0000
(5.9)
0.0000
(5.7)
Wade Miley 0.0148
0.0000
(6.2)
0.0042
(8.4)
0.0000
(6.7)
0.0000
(6.2)
Homer Bailey 0.0145
0.0000
(6.5)
0.0072
(6.2)
0.0000
(7.0)
0.0000
(6.5)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 0.0000 0.0148 6.1
2 Bronson Arroyo 0.0000 0.0000 5.9
3 Ricky Romero 0.0000 0.0000 5.9
4 Ricky Nolasco 0.0000 0.0142 5.9
5 Josh Tomlin 0.0000 0.0200 5.8
6 Adam Wainwright 0.0000 0.0139 5.7
7 Jonathon Niese 0.0000 0.0000 5.6
8 A.J. Griffin 0.0073 0.0000 4.9
9 Miguel González 0.0073 0.0033 4.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bruce Chen 0.0023 0.0100 6.3
2 Jeremy Guthrie 0.0087 0.0017 5.7
3 Mike Fiers 0.0128 0.0028 5.5
4 Jerome Williams 0.0049 0.0144 5.3
5 Madison Bumgarner 0.0057 0.0121 5.3
6 Jeremy Hellickson 0.0086 0.0019 5.1
7 Jonathon Niese 0.0062 0.0000 5.0
8 Tim Hudson 0.0036 0.0104 5.0
9 Chris Perez 0.0057 0.0252 4.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 0.0000 0.0148 6.6
2 Ricky Nolasco 0.0000 0.0142 6.4
3 Adam Wainwright 0.0000 0.0139 6.2
4 Josh Tomlin 0.0000 0.0200 6.1
5 Bronson Arroyo 0.0000 0.0000 5.4
6 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.0000 0.0131 5.4
7 Ricky Romero 0.0000 0.0000 5.4
8 Dallas Keuchel 0.0073 0.0000 5.2
9 Cole De Vries 0.0073 0.0000 5.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 0.0000 0.0148 6.1
2 Bronson Arroyo 0.0000 0.0000 5.9
3 Ricky Romero 0.0000 0.0000 5.9
4 Ricky Nolasco 0.0000 0.0142 5.9
5 Josh Tomlin 0.0000 0.0200 5.8
6 Adam Wainwright 0.0000 0.0139 5.7
7 Jonathon Niese 0.0000 0.0000 5.6
8 A.J. Griffin 0.0073 0.0000 4.9
9 Miguel González 0.0073 0.0033 4.8

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Bruce Chen 0.0023 0.0000 0.0100 6.3 2.4 3.9
2 Jordan Lyles 0.0126 0.0000 0.0065 3.9 0.4 3.5
3 Zack Greinke 0.0106 0.0000 0.0067 3.5 0.3 3.2
4 Mike Fiers 0.0128 0.0000 0.0028 5.5 2.3 3.2
5 Travis Blackley 0.0073 0.0073 0.0152 3.4 0.4 3.1
6 Mat Latos 0.0100 0.0000 0.0069 2.8 0.2 2.6
7 Tim Hudson 0.0036 0.0000 0.0104 5.0 2.4 2.5
8 Johnny Cueto 0.0042 0.0000 0.0093 4.4 2.0 2.5
9 Wade Miley 0.0042 0.0000 0.0148 8.4 6.2 2.2
10 Derek Holland 0.0041 0.0000 0.0100 4.2 2.1 2.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 0.0073 0.0000 0.0070 3.8 0.1 3.8
2 Aaron Laffey 0.0073 0.0000 0.0031 4.6 1.7 2.9
3 David Phelps 0.0073 0.0000 0.0038 4.1 1.4 2.8
4 Dallas Keuchel 0.0073 0.0000 0.0000 5.2 2.7 2.5
5 Christian Friedrich 0.0073 0.0000 0.0039 3.7 1.2 2.5
6 Cole De Vries 0.0073 0.0000 0.0000 5.2 2.7 2.5
7 Héctor Santiago 0.0073 0.0000 0.0000 4.2 2.2 2.0
8 Brad Brach 0.0073 0.0000 0.0000 3.9 2.0 1.9
9 Steve Delabar 0.0073 0.0000 0.0000 3.8 2.0 1.8
10 Robbie Ross Jr. 0.0073 0.0000 0.0053 2.3 0.5 1.8

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Kris Medlen 0.0500
0.1040
(28.8)
0.1139
(34.5)
0.1141
(33.3)
0.1040
(28.8)
Ricky Romero 0.1472
0.1021
(36.1)
0.1046
(33.3)
0.1141
(27.4)
0.1021
(36.1)
Kyle Lohse 0.0856
0.1185
(29.7)
0.1224
(33.9)
0.1141
(24.6)
0.1185
(29.7)
Randy Wolf 0.1474
0.1104
(24.8)
0.1076
(26.1)
0.1141
(23.2)
0.1104
(24.8)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1441
0.0960
(37.5)
0.1107
(25.0)
0.1141
(24.2)
0.0960
(37.5)
Fernando Rodney 0.0319
0.1140
(23.6)
0.1159
(24.4)
0.1141
(23.2)
0.1140
(23.6)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Lincecum 0.0826 0.1345 41.6
2 Jon Lester 0.0952 0.1336 32.3
3 Justin Masterson 0.1008 0.1347 29.3
4 Nate Jones 0.1490 0.0631 26.3
5 Jose Quintana 0.1535 0.1092 26.0
6 Scott Diamond 0.1405 0.1064 25.4
7 Tommy Hanson 0.0900 0.1248 25.3
8 Luke Hochevar 0.1259 0.1588 25.1
9 Bronson Arroyo 0.1313 0.1030 24.9
10 Wade Miley 0.1259 0.0979 23.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Lincecum 0.0905 0.1345 34.4
2 Jon Lester 0.0997 0.1336 27.5
3 A.J. Burnett 0.1302 0.1011 26.8
4 Ervin Santana 0.1086 0.1427 24.2
5 Roy Halladay 0.0813 0.1207 24.0
6 Clay Buchholz 0.0974 0.1297 24.0
7 Jonathan Sánchez 0.1089 0.1835 23.6
8 David Price 0.1011 0.0754 23.5
9 Philip Humber 0.1095 0.1602 22.3
10 Jonathon Niese 0.1227 0.0977 21.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Luke Hochevar 0.1141 0.1588 35.7
2 Clayton Kershaw 0.1141 0.0777 32.8
3 David Price 0.1141 0.0754 32.4
4 Nick Blackburn 0.1141 0.1776 29.0
5 Johnny Cueto 0.1141 0.0822 28.3
6 Justin Verlander 0.1141 0.0847 28.1
7 R.A. Dickey 0.1141 0.0841 27.8
8 Matt Cain 0.1141 0.0833 27.0
9 Jake Arrieta 0.1141 0.1653 25.4
10 Jordan Lyles 0.1141 0.1545 25.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tim Lincecum 0.0826 0.1345 41.6
2 Jon Lester 0.0952 0.1336 32.3
3 Justin Masterson 0.1008 0.1347 29.3
4 Nate Jones 0.1490 0.0631 26.3
5 Jose Quintana 0.1535 0.1092 26.0
6 Scott Diamond 0.1405 0.1064 25.4
7 Tommy Hanson 0.0900 0.1248 25.3
8 Luke Hochevar 0.1259 0.1588 25.1
9 Bronson Arroyo 0.1313 0.1030 24.9
10 Wade Miley 0.1259 0.0979 23.9

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Christian Friedrich 0.1141 0.1546 0.1618 17.1 2.1 14.9
2 A.J. Burnett 0.1302 0.1137 0.1011 26.8 12.0 14.8
3 Edinson Volquez 0.1283 0.1050 0.1097 16.8 2.6 14.2
4 Henderson Alvarez 0.1097 0.1263 0.1363 19.5 6.9 12.6
5 Anthony Bass 0.0917 0.1161 0.1436 20.3 10.7 9.7
6 Philip Humber 0.1095 0.1306 0.1602 22.3 13.0 9.3
7 Jonathon Niese 0.1227 0.1129 0.0977 21.5 13.1 8.4
8 Rhiner Cruz 0.1141 0.1455 0.1502 8.5 0.8 7.7
9 Corey Kluber 0.1167 0.1448 0.1566 10.5 2.9 7.7
10 Tommy Hunter 0.1185 0.1325 0.1483 15.7 8.2 7.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Clayton Kershaw 0.1141 0.0734 0.0777 32.8 2.5 30.3
2 Justin Verlander 0.1141 0.0855 0.0847 28.1 2.2 25.9
3 Matt Cain 0.1141 0.0865 0.0833 27.0 4.1 22.8
4 Félix Hernández 0.1141 0.0857 0.0895 23.1 2.1 21.0
5 Jered Weaver 0.1141 0.0906 0.0853 21.3 5.1 16.3
6 Cole Hamels 0.1141 0.0943 0.0923 18.9 3.1 15.8
7 Christian Friedrich 0.1141 0.1546 0.1618 18.0 2.1 15.8
8 Félix Doubront 0.1141 0.1318 0.1340 14.1 0.5 13.6
9 David Price 0.1141 0.0965 0.0754 32.4 18.9 13.5
10 Gio Gonzalez 0.1141 0.0967 0.0839 24.8 11.7 13.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Fiers 0.1092 0.1092 0.1039 3.7 3.7 0.0
2 Lucas Harrell 0.1280 0.1280 0.1088 17.1 17.1 0.0
3 Phil Hughes 0.1310 0.1310 0.1239 7.0 7.0 0.0
4 Chris Young 0.1120 0.1120 0.1176 2.1 2.1 0.0
5 Stephen Strasburg 0.0825 0.0825 0.0949 7.1 7.1 0.0
6 Jake Peavy 0.1187 0.1187 0.0998 18.0 18.0 0.0
7 Nathan Eovaldi 0.1117 0.1117 0.1122 0.6 0.6 0.0
8 Matt Cain 0.0865 0.0865 0.0833 4.1 4.1 0.0
9 Bruce Chen 0.1218 0.1218 0.1378 12.0 12.0 0.0
10 Chris Resop 0.1053 0.1053 0.1061 0.2 0.2 0.0

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez 0.1774
0.1061
(23.4)
0.0980
(25.2)
0.1057
(23.0)
0.1065
(23.2)
Kris Medlen 0.0462
0.0956
(25.6)
0.1040
(31.3)
0.0928
(24.9)
0.0983
(27.0)
Ricky Romero 0.1399
0.0988
(34.3)
0.0935
(36.6)
0.1020
(30.4)
0.0955
(37.0)
Kyle Lohse 0.0775
0.1131
(30.6)
0.1093
(29.5)
0.1152
(33.7)
0.1111
(28.8)
Roy Halladay 0.1207
0.0821
(25.1)
0.0750
(28.1)
0.0874
(20.7)
0.0768
(28.5)
Tim Lincecum 0.1297
0.0818
(39.7)
0.0829
(36.7)
0.0867
(34.4)
0.0770
(43.6)
Nick Blackburn 0.1776
0.1237
(24.7)
0.1152
(27.4)
0.1246
(23.6)
0.1227
(25.1)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1317
0.0943
(30.2)
0.1013
(22.6)
0.0985
(25.6)
0.0902
(33.6)
Jon Lester 0.1256
0.0909
(30.6)
0.0930
(26.5)
0.0928
(27.6)
0.0890
(32.2)
Fernando Rodney 0.0177
0.1023
(23.8)
0.1063
(25.6)
0.0994
(23.4)
0.1053
(24.6)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 R.A. Dickey 0.1066 0.0766 27.6
2 Luke Hochevar 0.1146 0.1475 26.5
3 Jose Quintana 0.1439 0.1004 24.6
4 Justin Masterson 0.0995 0.1247 23.1
5 Scott Diamond 0.1269 0.0952 22.4
6 Johnny Cueto 0.1003 0.0755 21.9
7 Randy Wolf 0.1107 0.1416 21.8
8 Ervin Santana 0.1058 0.1335 21.3
9 Tommy Hanson 0.0877 0.1143 20.4
10 Francisco Liriano 0.1051 0.1342 20.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Randy Wolf 0.0999 0.1416 27.6
2 A.J. Burnett 0.1221 0.0928 26.9
3 Philip Humber 0.1025 0.1580 24.6
4 Clay Buchholz 0.0875 0.1197 24.0
5 Ervin Santana 0.1001 0.1335 23.7
6 Jake Peavy 0.1162 0.0930 22.5
7 Craig Stammen 0.1179 0.0622 21.5
8 Justin Masterson 0.0999 0.1247 20.4
9 Josh Tomlin 0.1147 0.1615 20.1
10 Bruce Chen 0.1047 0.1306 19.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 R.A. Dickey 0.1153 0.0766 37.1
2 Johnny Cueto 0.1077 0.0755 29.8
3 Luke Hochevar 0.1118 0.1475 27.5
4 Wei-Yin Chen 0.1339 0.1051 24.6
5 Mike Fiers 0.0526 0.0983 23.9
6 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1132 0.0823 23.9
7 Matt Harrison 0.1121 0.0890 21.3
8 Matt Cain 0.1003 0.0776 21.0
9 Tommy Hunter 0.1034 0.1414 21.0
10 Ervin Santana 0.1048 0.1335 20.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Masterson 0.0941 0.1247 28.0
2 Randy Wolf 0.1027 0.1416 27.4
3 Scott Diamond 0.1316 0.0952 25.8
4 Jose Quintana 0.1439 0.1004 24.6
5 Luke Hochevar 0.1173 0.1475 24.3
6 Josh Johnson 0.0714 0.1015 24.2
7 Wade Miley 0.1184 0.0892 23.4
8 Tommy Hanson 0.0845 0.1143 22.8
9 Chris Tillman 0.1467 0.0807 22.8
10 Nate Jones 0.1389 0.0631 22.8

Most Unique Misses for Earned Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 A.J. Burnett 0.1221 0.1045 0.0928 26.9 9.7 17.2
2 Christian Friedrich 0.1050 0.1448 0.1538 17.5 3.5 14.1
3 Clay Buchholz 0.0875 0.1027 0.1197 24.0 13.8 10.2
4 Brandon Morrow 0.1157 0.0986 0.0813 18.5 8.6 9.9
5 Will Smith 0.1050 0.1367 0.1338 10.5 1.0 9.5
6 Jake Peavy 0.1162 0.1085 0.0930 22.5 13.5 9.0
7 Henderson Alvarez 0.1022 0.1148 0.1252 16.6 8.5 8.1
8 Edinson Volquez 0.1208 0.0964 0.1047 14.7 6.8 7.9
9 Bruce Chen 0.1047 0.1168 0.1306 19.5 11.6 7.9
10 James Shields 0.1010 0.0954 0.0943 8.5 0.9 7.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Christian Friedrich 0.1050 0.1448 0.1538 17.9 3.5 14.4
2 Mike Fiers 0.0526 0.0773 0.0983 23.9 11.5 12.5
3 Mark Buehrle 0.1178 0.1068 0.1014 14.7 4.3 10.4
4 Will Smith 0.1050 0.1367 0.1338 10.9 1.0 9.9
5 Matt Cain 0.1003 0.0906 0.0776 21.0 11.2 9.9
6 R.A. Dickey 0.1153 0.1066 0.0766 37.1 27.6 9.6
7 Wei-Yin Chen 0.1339 0.1243 0.1051 24.6 15.5 9.1
8 Jeremy Hellickson 0.1132 0.1031 0.0823 23.9 15.2 8.6
9 Johnny Cueto 0.1077 0.1003 0.0755 29.8 21.9 7.9
10 Rhiner Cruz 0.1050 0.1360 0.1462 10.1 2.6 7.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Josh Johnson 0.0714 0.0827 0.1015 24.2 15.2 9.0
2 Lucas Harrell 0.1199 0.1094 0.0979 18.0 9.3 8.7
3 Clay Buchholz 0.0927 0.1027 0.1197 21.8 13.8 8.0
4 Craig Stammen 0.1225 0.1052 0.0622 22.3 15.8 6.4
5 Phil Hughes 0.1217 0.1148 0.1092 10.1 4.4 5.7
6 Randy Wolf 0.1027 0.1107 0.1416 27.4 21.8 5.6
7 Adam Wainwright 0.0821 0.0886 0.1047 18.9 13.5 5.4
8 Jeremy Guthrie 0.1078 0.1144 0.1218 11.2 6.0 5.2
9 Justin Masterson 0.0941 0.0995 0.1247 28.0 23.1 4.9
10 Jared Hughes 0.1288 0.1139 0.0759 16.6 11.9 4.7

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Barry Zito 0.4688
0.2924
(141.1)
0.1923
(178.1)
0.2821
(150.0)
0.3043
(144.8)
Gio Gonzalez 0.6562
0.3959
(214.2)
0.3250
(228.3)
0.3676
(238.1)
0.4242
(204.5)
David Price 0.6452
0.4593
(155.5)
0.3250
(222.9)
0.4492
(164.6)
0.4688
(161.5)
Lance Lynn 0.5143
0.1509
(270.5)
0.0909
(275.2)
0.1161
(297.0)
0.2414
(215.5)
R.A. Dickey 0.5882
0.3482
(222.7)
0.2000
(310.3)
0.3062
(262.4)
0.3929
(196.7)
A.J. Burnett 0.5161
0.3423
(148.1)
0.2632
(169.8)
0.3590
(134.6)
0.3214
(180.0)
Chris Sale 0.5667
0.3648
(156.0)
0.0732
(339.7)
0.3489
(168.9)
0.3846
(153.5)
Johnny Cueto 0.5758
0.3531
(197.9)
0.2857
(210.1)
0.3617
(191.0)
0.3448
(220.0)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cliff Lee 0.5084 0.2000 261.0
2 Lucas Harrell 0.0895 0.3438 210.4
3 Phil Hughes 0.2627 0.5000 193.6
4 Jeff Samardzija 0.0589 0.3214 189.9
5 Jon Lester 0.4803 0.2727 181.7
6 Wade Miley 0.3043 0.5000 158.1
7 Jered Weaver 0.4609 0.6667 152.2
8 Ricky Romero 0.4505 0.2812 140.2
9 Kyle Lohse 0.3228 0.4848 140.1
10 Kevin Correia 0.1882 0.3750 136.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Harrison 0.2381 0.5625 237.3
2 Wade Miley 0.1786 0.5000 216.2
3 Jarrod Parker 0.1111 0.4483 213.0
4 Yu Darvish 0.2497 0.5517 202.8
5 Stephen Strasburg 0.1852 0.5357 194.0
6 Jered Weaver 0.3590 0.6667 187.9
7 Cole Hamels 0.2821 0.5484 184.5
8 Scott Diamond 0.1379 0.4444 180.7
9 Tommy Milone 0.1429 0.4194 176.4
10 Phil Hughes 0.2500 0.5000 160.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Phil Hughes 0.2007 0.5000 244.7
2 Lucas Harrell 0.0566 0.3438 238.3
3 Cliff Lee 0.4669 0.2000 225.2
4 Jeff Samardzija 0.0491 0.3214 197.7
5 Jered Weaver 0.4212 0.6667 182.1
6 Félix Doubront 0.1444 0.3793 167.3
7 Kevin Correia 0.1490 0.3750 165.3
8 Tim Hudson 0.3632 0.5714 156.7
9 Matt Harrison 0.3923 0.5625 150.0
10 Kyle Kendrick 0.0871 0.2973 142.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cliff Lee 0.5517 0.2000 283.7
2 Jon Lester 0.5333 0.2727 213.6
3 Wade Miley 0.2593 0.5000 207.8
4 Jeff Samardzija 0.0704 0.3214 193.6
5 Kyle Lohse 0.3182 0.4848 158.5
6 Ricky Romero 0.4839 0.2812 154.1
7 Tim Lincecum 0.5000 0.3030 148.7
8 Randy Wolf 0.3929 0.1667 146.4
9 James McDonald 0.2121 0.4000 145.9
10 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.4839 0.2903 142.3

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Sale 0.0732 0.3648 0.5667 339.7 156.0 183.7
2 Jarrod Parker 0.1111 0.3404 0.4483 213.0 81.2 131.9
3 Yu Darvish 0.2497 0.4529 0.5517 202.8 80.8 122.0
4 Tommy Milone 0.1429 0.3479 0.4194 176.4 56.7 119.7
5 Matt Harrison 0.2381 0.4271 0.5625 237.3 118.8 118.5
6 Stephen Strasburg 0.1852 0.4136 0.5357 194.0 79.9 114.1
7 Mat Latos 0.2500 0.4199 0.4242 103.6 3.9 99.7
8 Matt Moore 0.1667 0.3734 0.3548 102.2 13.9 88.3
9 R.A. Dickey 0.2000 0.3482 0.5882 310.3 222.7 87.6
10 James Shields 0.3000 0.4444 0.4545 95.4 9.7 85.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Rhiner Cruz 0.2497 0.0408 0.0192 58.0 5.4 52.6
2 Phil Hughes 0.2007 0.2627 0.5000 244.7 193.6 51.2
3 Kelvin Herrera 0.2497 0.1020 0.0526 67.4 16.9 50.5
4 Steve Delabar 0.2497 0.0652 0.0656 50.2 0.2 50.0
5 Brad Brach 0.2497 0.0725 0.0299 61.3 11.9 49.4
6 Yovani Gallardo 0.3894 0.4437 0.4848 83.0 35.6 47.4
7 Félix Doubront 0.1444 0.2104 0.3793 167.3 119.9 47.3
8 Chad Durbin 0.2497 0.0370 0.0526 50.4 4.1 46.3
9 Dale Thayer 0.2497 0.0536 0.0312 51.1 5.2 45.9
10 Wei-Yin Chen 0.2620 0.3158 0.3750 93.2 48.6 44.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alexi Ogando 0.4444 0.2042 0.0345 103.4 44.6 58.8
2 Adam Wainwright 0.5600 0.4743 0.4375 87.9 30.4 57.5
3 Freddy Garcia 0.3913 0.2541 0.2333 65.1 9.5 55.6
4 Adam Ottavino 0.2727 0.0888 0.0943 54.8 1.9 52.8
5 Esmil Rogers 0.2593 0.0924 0.0448 68.8 16.5 52.3
6 Anthony Swarzak 0.2222 0.0802 0.0682 56.7 4.9 51.8
7 Wade Miley 0.2593 0.3043 0.5000 207.8 158.1 49.7
8 Brett Myers 0.2857 0.0920 0.0429 61.5 13.3 48.2
9 Joe Blanton 0.2632 0.3028 0.3226 61.4 16.1 45.3
10 Mike Minor 0.2812 0.3250 0.3667 74.4 30.5 43.9

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Josh Beckett 0.5000
0.2618
(170.0)
0.1944
(177.1)
0.2833
(160.2)
0.2400
(189.3)
Kyle Lohse 0.0909
0.3723
(247.8)
0.2368
(180.5)
0.3815
(248.7)
0.3636
(236.2)
Mike Fiers 0.4348
0.1827
(133.0)
0.0833
(155.5)
0.1790
(139.3)
0.1852
(134.2)
Mat Latos 0.1212
0.2920
(151.2)
0.3000
(207.5)
0.3021
(152.8)
0.2812
(137.9)
Jeff Samardzija 0.4643
0.0581
(289.8)
0.0889
(225.9)
0.0476
(303.3)
0.0704
(284.3)
Justin Germano 0.7143
0.0968
(195.9)
0.1111
(172.9)
0.2441
(151.4)
0.0968
(197.4)
Erik Bedard 0.5833
0.2979
(156.0)
0.2059
(175.1)
0.3317
(141.7)
0.2667
(176.0)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.5484
0.3092
(188.2)
0.2703
(173.2)
0.3266
(180.8)
0.2903
(207.2)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lucas Harrell 0.1063 0.3438 191.9
2 Josh Johnson 0.2316 0.4516 171.3
3 R.A. Dickey 0.3441 0.1765 160.4
4 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.4618 0.1667 155.9
5 Nathan Eovaldi 0.3173 0.5909 141.1
6 Phil Hughes 0.2283 0.4062 140.7
7 Matt Cain 0.3055 0.1562 135.5
8 Jon Lester 0.2675 0.4242 132.6
9 Brad Lincoln 0.3761 0.0385 124.2
10 Scott Feldman 0.1430 0.3793 123.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nathan Eovaldi 0.1538 0.5909 196.7
2 Henderson Alvarez 0.1613 0.4516 183.4
3 Josh Johnson 0.1600 0.4516 182.4
4 Travis Wood 0.1765 0.5000 169.1
5 Hector Noesí 0.1111 0.5455 168.2
6 Joe Blanton 0.1667 0.4194 152.9
7 Luke Hochevar 0.2632 0.5000 139.1
8 Matt Moore 0.1111 0.3548 137.2
9 Tyson Ross 0.1600 0.6111 132.7
10 Justin Masterson 0.2326 0.4412 131.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lucas Harrell 0.0474 0.3438 247.3
2 R.A. Dickey 0.3990 0.1765 203.7
3 Phil Hughes 0.1700 0.4062 194.8
4 Matt Cain 0.3569 0.1562 173.3
5 Scott Feldman 0.0949 0.3793 153.9
6 Kyle Kendrick 0.0993 0.3243 153.5
7 Félix Doubront 0.1363 0.3448 149.8
8 Tyson Ross 0.2051 0.6111 139.8
9 Jon Lester 0.2684 0.4242 139.0
10 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.4288 0.1667 134.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Johnson 0.1500 0.4516 240.2
2 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.5000 0.1667 173.3
3 Nathan Eovaldi 0.2692 0.5909 168.9
4 Justin Masterson 0.2727 0.4412 152.0
5 Hector Noesí 0.2258 0.5455 144.5
6 Tim Lincecum 0.2812 0.4545 142.4
7 Jon Lester 0.2667 0.4242 137.5
8 Travis Wood 0.2903 0.5000 135.7
9 Brad Lincoln 0.4074 0.0385 133.8
10 Bud Norris 0.2667 0.4483 132.6

Most Unique Misses for Loss Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tommy Milone 0.1071 0.3242 0.3226 120.6 5.6 115.0
2 Wade Miley 0.1429 0.3457 0.3438 111.3 5.9 105.4
3 Clayton Richard 0.2258 0.3811 0.4242 123.2 34.4 88.9
4 Chris Young 0.1250 0.3573 0.4500 129.2 43.1 86.1
5 Blake Beavan 0.2121 0.4311 0.4231 94.4 8.6 85.8
6 Bruce Chen 0.2162 0.3769 0.4118 109.6 24.4 85.2
7 Henderson Alvarez 0.1613 0.3244 0.4516 183.4 98.3 85.1
8 Matt Harrison 0.1667 0.3168 0.3438 99.9 18.9 81.0
9 Luis Mendoza 0.1053 0.3807 0.3333 117.0 37.4 79.6
10 Matt Moore 0.1111 0.2692 0.3548 137.2 60.9 76.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Will Smith 0.2441 0.4615 0.5625 127.2 37.9 89.3
2 Kevin Correia 0.1755 0.2689 0.3438 124.5 50.6 74.0
3 Dallas Keuchel 0.2441 0.4231 0.5000 97.5 27.0 70.6
4 Félix Doubront 0.1363 0.2197 0.3448 149.8 84.9 64.9
5 Lucas Harrell 0.0474 0.1063 0.3438 247.3 191.9 55.4
6 Phil Hughes 0.1700 0.2283 0.4062 194.8 140.7 54.2
7 Kelvin Herrera 0.2441 0.0816 0.0395 69.4 16.4 53.1
8 Chad Durbin 0.2441 0.0370 0.0132 58.6 7.5 51.1
9 Luis Mendoza 0.4598 0.3807 0.3333 87.7 37.4 50.3
10 Patrick Corbin 0.2441 0.3462 0.3636 55.5 5.5 50.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adam Ottavino 0.3636 0.0927 0.0189 117.1 26.9 90.2
2 Craig Stammen 0.3103 0.0873 0.0169 108.8 28.0 80.8
3 Anthony Swarzak 0.3333 0.1029 0.1364 81.6 11.6 70.0
4 Josh Johnson 0.1500 0.2316 0.4516 240.2 171.3 68.9
5 Esmil Rogers 0.2963 0.0946 0.0448 87.8 19.2 68.6
6 Freddy Garcia 0.3478 0.2275 0.2000 68.5 15.1 53.3
7 Tom Gorzelanny 0.2333 0.0616 0.0444 58.0 6.9 51.1
8 Brett Myers 0.3214 0.0778 0.1143 56.5 8.5 48.1
9 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.2500 0.1009 0.0411 68.3 21.3 47.1
10 A.J. Burnett 0.3929 0.3335 0.3226 60.4 13.9 46.5

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alfredo Aceves 0.3623
0.0200
(122.6)
0.0488
(120.4)
0.0158
(124.8)
0.0000
(121.0)
Aroldis Chapman 0.5588
0.0180
(148.5)
0.0278
(152.1)
0.0222
(147.8)
0.0000
(146.8)
Tyler Clippard 0.4324
0.0267
(123.7)
0.0185
(133.2)
0.0242
(125.0)
0.0000
(124.4)
Jim Johnson 0.7183
0.4868
(61.6)
0.1042
(170.6)
0.4492
(72.2)
0.0000
(185.9)
Rafael Soriano 0.6087
0.0378
(158.5)
0.2895
(94.7)
0.0392
(158.6)
0.0000
(162.3)
Tom Wilhelmsen 0.3973
0.0256
(120.3)
0.0476
(120.5)
0.0172
(123.6)
0.0000
(120.7)
Fernando Rodney 0.6316
0.0000
(177.3)
0.1944
(128.9)
0.0000
(177.8)
0.0000
(170.5)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Myers 1.0113 0.2714 202.0
2 Heath Bell 0.6960 0.2603 125.4
3 Brandon League 0.6075 0.2027 122.7
4 Jordan Walden 0.7095 0.0222 118.7
5 Carlos Marmol 0.7223 0.3279 98.1
6 Ernesto Frieri 0.0203 0.3433 86.2
7 Casey Janssen 0.0000 0.3548 85.2
8 Santiago Casilla 0.0520 0.3425 78.3
9 Matt Thornton 0.3309 0.0405 78.0
10 Kyle Farnsworth 0.6361 0.0000 76.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Motte 0.0755 0.6269 159.5
2 Rafael Betancourt 0.0600 0.5167 112.5
3 Addison Reed 0.0714 0.4677 99.1
4 Ernesto Frieri 0.0244 0.3433 91.2
5 Grant Balfour 0.0435 0.3200 85.7
6 Casey Janssen 0.0250 0.3548 84.7
7 Joel Hanrahan 0.2692 0.5714 81.9
8 Kenley Jansen 0.0811 0.3846 81.6
9 Chris Perez 0.3333 0.6393 78.9
10 Chris Sale 0.1220 0.0000 78.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Heath Bell 0.6875 0.2603 122.5
2 Jordan Walden 0.7188 0.0222 120.0
3 Brandon League 0.5982 0.2027 119.3
4 Carlos Marmol 0.6961 0.3279 91.2
5 Ernesto Frieri 0.0192 0.3433 86.9
6 Brett Myers 0.5865 0.2714 86.0
7 Casey Janssen 0.0000 0.3548 85.6
8 Kyle Farnsworth 0.6600 0.0000 79.3
9 Santiago Casilla 0.0500 0.3425 79.3
10 Matt Thornton 0.3365 0.0405 79.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Motte 0.0000 0.6269 167.3
2 Chris Perez 0.0000 0.6393 148.2
3 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.6667 147.7
4 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.5429 146.5
5 Joel Hanrahan 0.0000 0.5714 138.3
6 Joe Nathan 0.0000 0.5606 137.1
7 Jose Valverde 0.0000 0.4930 137.0
8 John Axford 0.0000 0.4667 136.3
9 J.J. Putz 0.0000 0.5614 116.5
10 Rafael Betancourt 0.0000 0.5167 115.5

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jason Motte 0.0755 0.5458 0.6269 159.5 21.8 137.6
2 Jim Johnson 0.1042 0.4868 0.7183 170.6 61.6 109.1
3 Rafael Betancourt 0.0600 0.4516 0.5167 112.5 14.7 97.8
4 Chris Sale 0.1220 0.0000 0.0000 78.6 2.1 76.5
5 Kenley Jansen 0.0811 0.3588 0.3846 81.6 5.8 75.7
6 Joel Hanrahan 0.2692 0.6087 0.5714 81.9 10.2 71.7
7 Chris Perez 0.3333 0.6015 0.6393 78.9 8.5 70.4
8 Craig Kimbrel 0.3673 0.6799 0.6667 73.8 3.7 70.1
9 Addison Reed 0.0714 0.3354 0.4677 99.1 30.8 68.3
10 Neftalí Feliz 0.3958 0.0000 0.0000 65.8 0.5 65.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 0.0279 0.0000 0.0000 16.4 1.5 14.8
2 Joe Kelly 0.0279 0.0000 0.0000 13.2 1.2 11.9
3 Aaron Laffey 0.0279 0.0000 0.0000 12.4 1.2 11.2
4 Drew Smyly 0.0279 0.0000 0.0000 12.0 1.1 10.9
5 David Phelps 0.0279 0.0000 0.0000 11.9 1.1 10.8
6 Eric Stults 0.0279 0.0000 0.0000 11.9 1.1 10.8
7 Jim Johnson 0.4492 0.4868 0.7183 72.2 61.6 10.6
8 Addison Reed 0.2931 0.3354 0.4677 41.3 30.8 10.5
9 Will Smith 0.0279 0.0000 0.0000 11.4 1.1 10.3
10 Dallas Keuchel 0.0279 0.0000 0.0000 10.9 1.0 9.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jason Motte 0.0000 0.5458 0.6269 167.3 21.8 145.5
2 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.6799 0.6667 147.7 3.7 144.1
3 Chris Perez 0.0000 0.6015 0.6393 148.2 8.5 139.7
4 Joel Hanrahan 0.0000 0.6087 0.5714 138.3 10.2 128.1
5 Jim Johnson 0.0000 0.4868 0.7183 185.9 61.6 124.4
6 Joe Nathan 0.0000 0.6863 0.5606 137.1 33.0 104.1
7 Rafael Betancourt 0.0000 0.4516 0.5167 115.5 14.7 100.8
8 J.J. Putz 0.0000 0.6585 0.5614 116.5 21.8 94.7
9 Kenley Jansen 0.0000 0.3588 0.3846 90.1 5.8 84.3
10 Jose Valverde 0.0000 0.6817 0.4930 137.0 56.3 80.7

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jason Grilli 0.5000
0.2109
(71.4)
0.2000
(81.6)
0.2034
(73.4)
0.0000
(109.6)
Mitchell Boggs 0.4359
0.1563
(83.8)
0.0750
(117.0)
0.1400
(88.8)
0.0000
(113.9)
Vicente Padilla 0.4107
0.0328
(83.1)
0.1500
(64.4)
0.0385
(82.1)
0.0000
(78.4)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance Lynn 0.2709 0.0286 177.8
2 Lucas Harrell 0.2183 0.0000 177.7
3 Jeff Samardzija 0.1698 0.0000 120.3
4 Ronald Belisario 0.0000 0.3382 97.7
5 Brian Duensing 0.3359 0.1273 96.9
6 Rafael Soriano 0.3778 0.0580 88.3
7 Kelvin Herrera 0.0000 0.2500 87.2
8 Ryan Cook 0.0000 0.2958 86.2
9 Dale Thayer 0.0000 0.3438 81.6
10 Marco Estrada 0.1685 0.0345 73.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Sale 0.1951 0.0000 124.0
2 Francisco Rodríguez 0.1176 0.4103 99.8
3 Daniel Bard 0.3585 0.0000 89.7
4 Vinnie Pestano 0.2500 0.5143 85.5
5 Joel Peralta 0.2222 0.4868 79.0
6 Edward Mujica 0.1667 0.4286 76.5
7 Sean Doolittle 0.0524 0.4091 74.7
8 Kris Medlen 0.0526 0.1600 73.8
9 Phil Hughes 0.1250 0.0000 73.7
10 Dale Thayer 0.0667 0.3438 73.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance Lynn 0.1875 0.0286 115.1
2 Jeff Samardzija 0.1579 0.0000 111.1
3 Lucas Harrell 0.1316 0.0000 105.4
4 Ronald Belisario 0.0000 0.3382 97.9
5 Rafael Soriano 0.3922 0.0580 92.1
6 Anthony Bass 0.2500 0.0417 83.9
7 Alex Cobb 0.1364 0.0000 75.2
8 Ryan Cook 0.0524 0.2958 71.3
9 Brad Lincoln 0.0000 0.1923 71.1
10 Dale Thayer 0.0524 0.3438 69.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Vinnie Pestano 0.0000 0.5143 132.5
2 Joel Peralta 0.0000 0.4868 115.1
3 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0000 0.4103 109.6
4 Joaquín Benoit 0.0000 0.4110 103.7
5 David Robertson 0.0000 0.4615 101.8
6 Edward Mujica 0.0000 0.4286 97.4
7 Matt Belisle 0.0000 0.3250 95.4
8 Sean Burnett 0.0000 0.4429 93.7
9 Mike Adams 0.0000 0.4426 89.3
10 Eric O'Flaherty 0.0000 0.4375 88.9

Most Unique Misses for Hold Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Sale 0.1951 0.0000 0.0000 124.0 2.6 121.4
2 Francisco Rodríguez 0.1176 0.4032 0.4103 99.8 3.2 96.6
3 Daniel Bard 0.3585 0.0000 0.0000 89.7 0.9 88.8
4 Wade Miley 0.1071 0.0000 0.0000 58.6 2.7 55.9
5 Matt Moore 0.1111 0.0000 0.0000 58.1 2.6 55.6
6 Jarrod Parker 0.1111 0.0000 0.0000 57.5 2.6 55.0
7 Tommy Milone 0.1071 0.0000 0.0000 57.5 2.7 54.8
8 David Hernandez 0.1860 0.3391 0.3472 54.4 3.2 51.2
9 Kris Medlen 0.0526 0.2126 0.1600 73.8 25.6 48.2
10 Luis Mendoza 0.1053 0.0000 0.0000 50.2 2.4 47.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 0.0524 0.0000 0.0000 27.4 1.9 25.5
2 Anthony Bass 0.2500 0.1917 0.0417 83.9 60.3 23.6
3 Joe Kelly 0.0524 0.0000 0.0000 22.1 1.6 20.5
4 Patrick Corbin 0.0524 0.0000 0.0000 21.9 1.5 20.4
5 Aaron Laffey 0.0524 0.0000 0.0000 20.7 1.5 19.3
6 Eric Stults 0.0524 0.0000 0.0000 19.9 1.4 18.5
7 Will Smith 0.0524 0.0000 0.0000 19.1 1.3 17.8
8 Randy Choate 0.3605 0.2557 0.2500 17.9 0.4 17.5
9 Jared Hughes 0.1250 0.1789 0.1818 19.3 2.0 17.3
10 Dallas Keuchel 0.0524 0.0000 0.0000 18.2 1.3 16.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0000 0.4032 0.4103 109.6 3.2 106.4
2 David Robertson 0.0000 0.4406 0.4615 101.8 6.0 95.8
3 Joaquín Benoit 0.0000 0.3727 0.4110 103.7 12.0 91.7
4 Vinnie Pestano 0.0000 0.3571 0.5143 132.5 45.9 86.6
5 David Hernandez 0.0000 0.3391 0.3472 82.4 3.2 79.1
6 Mike Adams 0.0000 0.3834 0.4426 89.3 14.3 75.0
7 Antonio Bastardo 0.0000 0.3739 0.4000 78.2 6.6 71.6
8 Eric O'Flaherty 0.0000 0.3464 0.4375 88.9 21.7 67.2
9 Joel Peralta 0.0000 0.2997 0.4868 115.1 50.3 64.8
10 Scott Downs 0.0000 0.3695 0.4386 75.2 14.1 61.1

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez 8.0722
4.3200
(1257.7)
3.7821
(1359.1)
4.2824
(1234.7)
4.3580
(1251.6)
Kris Medlen 1.5652
3.6852
(1053.5)
3.9212
(1294.7)
3.5454
(1037.0)
3.8275
(1117.3)
Ricky Romero 5.7680
3.8609
(1658.9)
3.5131
(1758.3)
3.9993
(1454.7)
3.7233
(1789.1)
Kyle Lohse 2.8578
4.4477
(1292.4)
4.2004
(1275.7)
4.5301
(1456.9)
4.3654
(1204.5)
Tim Lincecum 5.1774
3.1119
(1781.6)
3.1116
(1593.8)
3.3052
(1533.1)
2.9196
(1956.3)
Nick Blackburn 7.3885
4.9618
(1149.5)
4.5302
(1242.3)
4.9644
(1099.0)
4.9592
(1159.5)
Ubaldo Jiménez 5.4000
3.6793
(1460.9)
3.8557
(1135.4)
3.8349
(1248.7)
3.5231
(1602.2)
Jon Lester 4.8214
3.5194
(1222.9)
3.4947
(1044.9)
3.5787
(1076.5)
3.4597
(1292.3)
Fernando Rodney 0.6027
4.1203
(965.5)
4.2217
(1058.3)
3.9281
(941.7)
4.3200
(1016.3)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jose Quintana 6.1364 3.7628 1294.8
2 R.A. Dickey 4.1665 2.7347 1240.1
3 Scott Diamond 5.2812 3.5376 1177.8
4 Luke Hochevar 4.5307 5.7302 1034.8
5 Justin Masterson 3.9082 4.9289 1009.9
6 Roy Halladay 3.0339 4.4904 1001.6
7 Wade Miley 4.6308 3.3288 974.9
8 Randy Wolf 4.3940 5.6512 944.5
9 Joe Kelly 5.6911 3.5327 943.4
10 Johnny Cueto 3.9330 2.7788 941.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 A.J. Burnett 4.8120 3.5140 1218.5
2 Randy Wolf 3.8194 5.6512 1186.8
3 Philip Humber 3.8897 6.4412 1116.9
4 Roy Halladay 2.7231 4.4904 1055.1
5 Jake Peavy 4.3990 3.3699 1025.8
6 Ervin Santana 3.8151 5.1573 923.1
7 Josh Tomlin 4.2346 6.3581 899.3
8 Clay Buchholz 3.3166 4.5634 892.5
9 David Price 3.4615 2.5592 866.3
10 Joe Paterson 3.7850 37.1250 863.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 R.A. Dickey 4.5731 2.7347 1717.2
2 Johnny Cueto 4.2321 2.7788 1302.9
3 Wei-Yin Chen 5.4119 4.0173 1152.2
4 Luke Hochevar 4.4006 5.7302 1052.6
5 Jeremy Hellickson 4.4676 3.1017 1022.4
6 Scott Diamond 4.9384 3.5376 1010.1
7 Matt Cain 3.8860 2.7903 972.1
8 Matt Harrison 4.3841 3.2906 970.1
9 Bronson Arroyo 4.8385 3.7426 926.7
10 Chris Volstad 4.4695 6.3054 923.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Scott Diamond 5.6450 3.5376 1423.7
2 Jose Quintana 6.1364 3.7628 1283.7
3 Wade Miley 4.9437 3.3288 1211.6
4 Justin Masterson 3.7059 4.9289 1210.9
5 Randy Wolf 4.0449 5.6512 1202.1
6 Roy Halladay 2.8326 4.4904 1144.2
7 Nate Jones 6.1644 2.3860 1103.1
8 Chris Tillman 6.2000 2.9302 1095.2
9 Tommy Hanson 3.2049 4.4828 1058.9
10 Josh Johnson 2.6573 3.8101 1010.5

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 A.J. Burnett 4.8120 4.1385 3.5140 1218.5 451.4 767.1
2 Christian Friedrich 4.0750 6.2653 6.1654 737.6 2.2 735.3
3 Rhiner Cruz 4.0750 6.1722 6.0545 466.9 6.0 461.0
4 Brandon Morrow 4.5028 3.8801 2.9599 845.1 416.4 428.7
5 Clay Buchholz 3.3166 4.0481 4.5634 892.5 488.6 403.9
6 Jake Peavy 4.3990 4.1976 3.3699 1025.8 647.2 378.7
7 Chris Capuano 4.2944 4.0645 3.7210 577.8 203.8 374.0
8 Marco Estrada 4.2583 3.8288 3.6434 420.9 51.4 369.5
9 James Shields 3.7611 3.6123 3.5183 355.6 0.0 355.6
10 Henderson Alvarez 3.8558 4.5223 4.8523 696.1 342.2 353.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Christian Friedrich 4.0750 6.2653 6.1654 782.8 2.2 780.6
2 Wei-Yin Chen 5.4119 4.9143 4.0173 1152.2 656.8 495.3
3 Rhiner Cruz 4.0750 6.1722 6.0545 497.3 6.0 491.3
4 Mark Buehrle 4.6223 4.1525 3.7364 745.1 266.7 478.4
5 R.A. Dickey 4.5731 4.1665 2.7347 1717.2 1240.1 477.0
6 Matt Cain 3.8860 3.4579 2.7903 972.1 502.5 469.6
7 Jeremy Hellickson 4.4676 4.0297 3.1017 1022.4 618.0 404.4
8 Johnny Cueto 4.2321 3.9330 2.7788 1302.9 941.4 361.5
9 P.J. Walters 4.0750 5.5161 5.6919 434.4 73.1 361.3
10 Will Smith 4.0750 5.7620 5.3197 487.4 137.9 349.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Harrell 5.0455 4.4374 3.7642 965.7 479.0 486.7
2 Josh Johnson 2.6573 3.1210 3.8101 1010.5 624.9 385.5
3 Clay Buchholz 3.6247 4.0481 4.5634 843.9 488.6 355.2
4 Craig Stammen 4.9333 4.0990 2.3434 916.3 614.8 301.5
5 Jeremy Guthrie 4.1966 4.5247 4.7560 530.2 256.3 273.9
6 Randy Wolf 4.0449 4.3940 5.6512 1202.1 944.5 257.6
7 Scott Diamond 5.6450 5.2812 3.5376 1423.7 1177.8 245.9
8 Jared Hughes 5.4000 4.6120 2.8546 768.5 525.6 242.8
9 Phil Hughes 4.8411 4.5260 4.1864 441.1 200.1 240.9
10 Wade Miley 4.9437 4.6308 3.3288 1211.6 974.9 236.7

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez 2.0876
1.5088
(207.5)
1.3385
(243.4)
1.5209
(200.4)
1.4967
(207.8)
Ricky Romero 1.6740
1.3418
(321.6)
1.2583
(340.6)
1.4049
(261.4)
1.2791
(364.3)
Kyle Lohse 1.0900
1.3679
(191.9)
1.3317
(212.9)
1.3939
(222.7)
1.3420
(179.2)
Tommy Hanson 1.4542
1.2202
(220.5)
1.2170
(176.8)
1.2737
(172.4)
1.1675
(252.0)
Tim Lincecum 1.4677
1.2227
(248.1)
1.2258
(195.6)
1.2609
(208.7)
1.1848
(270.2)
Scott Diamond 1.2428
1.6353
(240.5)
1.4586
(157.5)
1.5577
(191.9)
1.7177
(307.4)
Ubaldo Jiménez 1.6132
1.3285
(274.0)
1.2909
(255.6)
1.3606
(240.5)
1.2964
(290.9)
Wade Miley 1.1815
1.5401
(244.4)
1.4416
(213.8)
1.4975
(217.8)
1.5845
(289.3)
Kris Medlen 0.9130
1.2738
(158.6)
1.2863
(196.6)
1.2600
(156.4)
1.2880
(171.8)
Fernando Rodney 0.7768
1.4709
(180.0)
1.4712
(197.2)
1.4429
(174.8)
1.5000
(191.4)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 R.A. Dickey 1.3435 1.0528 217.8
2 Steve Delabar 1.8621 1.0909 196.0
3 Chris Tillman 1.6099 1.0465 176.2
4 Randy Wolf 1.3822 1.5729 172.3
5 Joe Kelly 1.8067 1.3832 168.1
6 Jeff Samardzija 1.4909 1.2195 155.9
7 Aroldis Chapman 1.4141 0.8093 151.5
8 Jose Quintana 1.6705 1.3496 150.6
9 Cole De Vries 1.6607 1.2091 148.4
10 Ryan Cook 1.5000 0.9409 145.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Minor 1.4326 1.1543 206.1
2 R.A. Dickey 1.2544 1.0528 191.4
3 Jonathon Niese 1.4042 1.1716 187.1
4 Gio Gonzalez 1.3465 1.1288 182.9
5 Randy Wolf 1.3112 1.5729 179.6
6 A.J. Burnett 1.4336 1.2405 168.4
7 Daniel Bard 1.1318 1.7360 166.0
8 Tyson Ross 1.3448 1.8136 158.7
9 Jake Peavy 1.2660 1.0959 154.3
10 Clayton Richard 1.3983 1.2348 153.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 R.A. Dickey 1.4382 1.0528 314.5
2 Mike Fiers 1.7706 1.2611 249.8
3 Matt Cain 1.3059 1.0395 192.9
4 Wei-Yin Chen 1.5275 1.2612 180.1
5 Chris Tillman 1.5765 1.0465 167.9
6 Jeff Samardzija 1.4950 1.2195 165.9
7 Gio Gonzalez 1.3654 1.1288 156.6
8 Jake Peavy 1.3160 1.0959 153.5
9 Paul Maholm 1.4611 1.2222 151.5
10 Mark Buehrle 1.3977 1.1713 149.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Randy Wolf 1.3258 1.5729 203.8
2 Steve Delabar 1.8621 1.0909 199.1
3 Chris Tillman 1.6444 1.0465 192.0
4 Lucas Harrell 1.6212 1.3580 180.9
5 Aroldis Chapman 1.4863 0.8093 174.6
6 Joe Kelly 1.8067 1.3832 173.2
7 Josh Johnson 1.1111 1.2805 170.7
8 Jeremy Guthrie 1.2472 1.4092 162.7
9 Jeff Samardzija 1.4867 1.2195 161.0
10 Justin Masterson 1.3235 1.4540 158.5

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Minor 1.4326 1.3037 1.1543 206.1 68.2 137.9
2 Edwin Jackson 1.3818 1.2996 1.2179 133.3 20.5 112.8
3 Joe Blanton 1.3800 1.3209 1.2618 99.2 2.7 96.5
4 Will Smith 1.3213 1.6214 1.6059 110.8 15.9 94.8
5 A.J. Burnett 1.4336 1.3841 1.2405 168.4 74.8 93.7
6 Chris Capuano 1.3374 1.2913 1.2202 99.7 12.6 87.1
7 Jonathon Niese 1.4042 1.3607 1.1716 187.1 105.0 82.0
8 Homer Bailey 1.3415 1.3305 1.2404 92.6 30.1 62.5
9 James Shields 1.2340 1.2178 1.1684 66.5 5.9 60.6
10 Madison Bumgarner 1.2633 1.2536 1.1136 131.2 71.5 59.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Fiers 1.7706 1.4668 1.2611 249.8 80.8 169.0
2 Wei-Yin Chen 1.5275 1.3923 1.2612 180.1 61.6 118.5
3 Will Smith 1.3213 1.6214 1.6059 131.0 15.9 115.0
4 R.A. Dickey 1.4382 1.3435 1.0528 314.5 217.8 96.7
5 Clayton Kershaw 1.2229 1.1450 1.0234 138.2 59.3 78.8
6 Matt Cain 1.3059 1.2269 1.0395 192.9 115.3 77.6
7 Justin Verlander 1.2185 1.1500 1.0573 110.0 35.3 74.7
8 Trevor Cahill 1.4540 1.3767 1.2900 98.9 25.9 73.0
9 Clay Buchholz 1.4791 1.3987 1.3257 86.1 13.9 72.2
10 Samuel Deduno 1.3213 1.6685 1.5443 93.4 23.8 69.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Harrell 1.6212 1.5035 1.3580 180.9 74.2 106.6
2 Jeremy Guthrie 1.2472 1.3543 1.4092 162.7 87.2 75.5
3 Scott Diamond 1.7177 1.6353 1.2428 307.4 240.5 66.9
4 Josh Johnson 1.1111 1.1938 1.2805 170.7 113.7 57.0
5 Adam Ottavino 1.6228 1.4857 1.3924 63.0 12.7 50.3
6 Tom Wilhelmsen 1.6356 1.5016 1.1092 157.1 109.7 47.4
7 Nate Jones 1.8555 1.7128 1.3814 129.3 83.0 46.4
8 Craig Stammen 1.4370 1.3259 1.2000 71.2 26.0 45.3
9 Wade Miley 1.5845 1.5401 1.1815 289.3 244.4 44.9
10 Ricky Romero 1.2791 1.3418 1.6740 364.3 321.6 42.6