2020 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2020, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Home Run Rate

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Stolen Base Rate

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Run Rate

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

RBI Rate

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Batting Average

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kris Bubic 5 222 217.5
2 Framber Valdez 127 288 161.2
3 Tyler Anderson 125 260 135.5
4 JT Brubaker 81 205 123.5
5 Cristian Javier 100 214 114.0
6 Aaron Civale 219 312 92.7
7 Logan Webb 157 246 89.2
8 David Peterson 119 205 86.3
9 Brady Singer 192 263 70.9
10 Alec Mills 181 252 70.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Bauer 776 278 498.0
2 José Berríos 767 271 496.0
3 Marco Gonzales 758 277 481.0
4 Aaron Nola 762 289 473.0
5 Jacob deGrom 728 268 460.0
6 Tanner Roark 677 220 457.0
7 Gerrit Cole 744 288 456.0
8 Mike Minor 694 239 455.0
9 Brett Anderson 656 202 454.0
10 Zack Wheeler 740 288 452.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler Anderson 42 260 217.5
2 Framber Valdez 71 288 216.8
3 JT Brubaker 29 205 175.7
4 Adam Wainwright 100 262 162.0
5 Rick Porcello 100 261 161.0
6 Alex Young 50 204 153.9
7 David Peterson 53 205 152.4
8 Alec Mills 100 252 152.0
9 Dustin May 74 224 149.6
10 Brady Singer 136 263 126.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kris Bubic 5 222 217.5
2 Cristian Javier 28 214 186.0
3 Framber Valdez 115 288 172.7
4 JT Brubaker 38 205 166.9
5 Logan Webb 124 246 121.6
6 Tyler Anderson 143 260 116.9
7 Erick Fedde 111 222 111.3
8 David Peterson 104 205 100.6
9 Alec Mills 157 252 94.6
10 Clayton Kershaw 311 221 90.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jesús Luzardo 122 248 126.0
2 Garrett Richards 89 213 124.0
3 Kris Bubic 100 222 122.0
4 Aaron Civale 201 312 111.0
5 Johnny Cueto 168 277 109.0
6 Brandon Woodruff 192 293 101.0
7 Julio Urías 128 224 96.0
8 Framber Valdez 194 288 94.0
9 Corbin Burnes 152 240 88.0
10 Dinelson Lamet 180 267 87.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marco Gonzales 758 288 277 481.0 11.5 469.5
2 Trevor Bauer 776 308 278 498.0 29.8 468.2
3 José Berríos 767 303 271 496.0 31.5 464.5
4 Aaron Nola 762 309 289 473.0 19.9 453.1
5 Patrick Corbin 747 293 295 452.0 1.7 450.3
6 Gerrit Cole 744 296 288 456.0 8.0 448.0
7 Matthew Boyd 722 274 271 451.0 3.0 448.0
8 Shane Bieber 748 293 297 451.0 4.1 446.9
9 Zack Wheeler 740 294 288 452.0 6.0 446.0
10 Brett Anderson 656 218 202 454.0 15.9 438.1

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Rick Porcello 100 278 261 161.0 16.6 144.4
2 Adam Wainwright 100 232 262 162.0 30.2 131.8
3 Alex Young 50 146 204 153.9 57.8 96.1
4 Dustin May 74 160 224 149.6 63.7 85.9
5 Tyler Anderson 42 125 260 217.5 135.5 82.0
6 Alec Mills 100 181 252 152.0 70.8 81.2
7 Tanner Roark 100 262 220 120.0 41.9 78.1
8 David Peterson 53 119 205 152.4 86.3 66.1
9 Randy Dobnak 81 144 200 118.9 56.0 62.9
10 Brady Singer 136 192 263 126.5 70.9 55.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cristian Javier 28 100 214 186.0 114.0 72.0
2 Erick Fedde 111 162 222 111.3 59.9 51.4
3 Alex Cobb 299 249 226 72.6 22.7 49.9
4 Tyler Mahle 111 155 201 90.3 45.7 44.6
5 JT Brubaker 38 81 205 166.9 123.5 43.4
6 Danny Duffy 295 258 242 52.7 16.2 36.5
7 Clayton Kershaw 311 279 221 90.5 58.0 32.5
8 Logan Webb 124 157 246 121.6 89.2 32.4
9 Randy Dobnak 112 144 200 88.1 56.0 32.1
10 Trevor Williams 294 264 252 41.8 12.4 29.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Julio Urías 128 200 224 96.0 23.5 72.5
2 Johnny Cueto 168 240 277 109.0 37.2 71.8
3 Garrett Richards 89 155 213 124.0 58.1 65.9
4 Jesús Luzardo 122 183 248 126.0 64.8 61.2
5 Sean Manaea 150 211 222 72.0 11.2 60.8
6 Brandon Woodruff 192 251 293 101.0 42.0 59.0
7 Lance McCullers Jr. 160 209 227 67.0 18.3 48.7
8 Kyle Gibson 235 271 301 66.0 29.7 36.3
9 Aníbal Sánchez 203 238 245 42.0 7.0 35.0
10 Dinelson Lamet 180 214 267 87.0 52.7 34.3

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Tyler Anderson 0.1577
0.2179
(19.9)
0.2225
(18.2)
0.2071
(17.2)
0.2127
(19.4)
0.2340
(22.3)
Jordan Lyles 0.1353
0.2099
(24.1)
0.2296
(26.4)
0.2042
(22.8)
0.2054
(23.8)
0.2200
(25.0)
Shane Bieber 0.4108
0.2628
(39.1)
0.2701
(40.3)
0.2656
(38.2)
0.2595
(39.1)
0.2633
(41.0)
Zack Wheeler 0.1840
0.2275
(17.2)
0.2324
(15.4)
0.2305
(18.2)
0.2293
(18.7)
0.2226
(13.8)
Corbin Burnes 0.3667
0.2314
(28.6)
0.2480
(27.2)
0.2213
(30.9)
0.2162
(31.4)
0.2566
(24.2)
Jacob deGrom 0.3881
0.2970
(20.1)
0.2967
(23.1)
0.2966
(20.0)
0.2957
(19.5)
0.2986
(21.5)
Trevor Bauer 0.3597
0.2657
(21.6)
0.2719
(23.0)
0.2638
(22.0)
0.2617
(21.8)
0.2715
(21.9)
Kevin Gausman 0.3224
0.2114
(23.2)
0.2210
(23.6)
0.2013
(25.6)
0.2036
(24.3)
0.2292
(20.5)
Zach Eflin 0.2857
0.1811
(21.7)
0.2003
(19.7)
0.1759
(22.8)
0.1748
(22.4)
0.1926
(20.5)
Aaron Nola 0.3322
0.2524
(18.4)
0.2598
(19.4)
0.2498
(19.0)
0.2483
(18.6)
0.2590
(18.4)
Patrick Corbin 0.2034
0.2594
(21.3)
0.2691
(20.9)
0.2586
(21.2)
0.2566
(21.4)
0.2630
(20.4)
Dylan Cease 0.1725
0.2370
(20.6)
0.2367
(17.7)
0.2441
(22.5)
0.2399
(22.1)
0.2271
(16.3)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zach Davies 0.1464 0.2283 18.1
2 Kenta Maeda 0.2443 0.3226 15.4
3 Zach Plesac 0.1880 0.2767 14.9
4 Matthew Boyd 0.2600 0.2214 14.8
5 Germán Márquez 0.2376 0.2122 14.3
6 Tyler Glasnow 0.3065 0.3824 14.2
7 Brady Singer 0.1627 0.2319 14.0
8 Jon Lester 0.1936 0.1585 13.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler Glasnow 0.2633 0.3824 27.1
2 Lucas Giolito 0.2458 0.3368 24.7
3 Randy Dobnak 0.2196 0.1350 17.9
4 Dinelson Lamet 0.2771 0.3483 17.6
5 Alec Mills 0.2460 0.1825 17.3
6 Jon Lester 0.2150 0.1585 16.3
7 Ross Stripling 0.2463 0.1818 15.3
8 Adrian Houser 0.2344 0.1789 14.9

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zach Davies 0.1392 0.2283 19.9
2 Alec Mills 0.2378 0.1825 18.2
3 Kenta Maeda 0.2336 0.3226 17.9
4 Tyler Glasnow 0.2984 0.3824 16.0
5 Matthew Boyd 0.2602 0.2214 15.1
6 Brandon Woodruff 0.2425 0.3106 15.1
7 Tanner Roark 0.2378 0.1864 15.0
8 Zach Plesac 0.1899 0.2767 14.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zach Davies 0.1408 0.2283 18.7
2 Kenta Maeda 0.2309 0.3226 17.9
3 Matthew Boyd 0.2605 0.2214 15.9
4 Tyler Glasnow 0.2984 0.3824 15.3
5 Zach Plesac 0.1855 0.2767 14.8
6 Germán Márquez 0.2354 0.2122 14.7
7 Lucas Giolito 0.2673 0.3368 14.4
8 Brandon Woodruff 0.2423 0.3106 14.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Julio Urías 0.2656 0.2009 16.6
2 Zach Davies 0.1592 0.2283 16.5
3 Zach Plesac 0.1885 0.2767 16.2
4 Brady Singer 0.1609 0.2319 16.2
5 Germán Márquez 0.2473 0.2122 15.3
6 Dinelson Lamet 0.2833 0.3483 14.8
7 Ross Stripling 0.2378 0.1818 14.4
8 Jon Lester 0.2033 0.1585 14.4

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Giolito 0.2458 0.2887 0.3368 24.7 9.2 15.6
2 Tyler Glasnow 0.2633 0.3065 0.3824 27.1 14.2 12.9
3 Framber Valdez 0.2164 0.2467 0.2639 12.2 0.3 11.9
4 Alec Mills 0.2460 0.1917 0.1825 17.3 6.4 10.9
5 Randy Dobnak 0.2196 0.1607 0.1350 17.9 8.4 9.6
6 Antonio Senzatela 0.1717 0.1375 0.1353 12.6 5.6 7.0
7 David Peterson 0.2378 0.1932 0.1951 9.8 2.9 6.9
8 Logan Webb 0.2197 0.1900 0.1870 9.3 4.7 4.6
9 Dinelson Lamet 0.2771 0.2822 0.3483 17.6 13.3 4.3
10 Ross Stripling 0.2463 0.2165 0.1818 15.3 11.2 4.1

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alec Mills 0.2378 0.1917 0.1825 18.2 6.4 11.8
2 Adam Wainwright 0.2378 0.1857 0.2061 12.7 1.1 11.6
3 Rick Porcello 0.2378 0.2015 0.2069 12.4 2.8 9.6
4 Tanner Roark 0.2378 0.2005 0.1864 15.0 6.7 8.3
5 Lucas Giolito 0.2719 0.2887 0.3368 13.9 9.2 4.7
6 Zac Gallen 0.2404 0.2522 0.2818 7.2 3.9 3.3
7 Framber Valdez 0.2584 0.2467 0.2639 3.3 0.3 3.0
8 Kenta Maeda 0.2336 0.2443 0.3226 17.9 15.4 2.5
9 Clayton Kershaw 0.2281 0.2393 0.2805 7.9 5.5 2.4
10 Kevin Gausman 0.2013 0.2114 0.3224 25.6 23.2 2.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Giolito 0.2673 0.2887 0.3368 14.4 9.2 5.2
2 Kyle Gibson 0.2141 0.2079 0.1927 12.3 9.5 2.9
3 Corbin Burnes 0.2162 0.2314 0.3667 31.4 28.6 2.8
4 Kenta Maeda 0.2309 0.2443 0.3226 17.9 15.4 2.5
5 Chris Bassitt 0.2185 0.2124 0.2107 7.1 4.7 2.4
6 Lance Lynn 0.2609 0.2578 0.2587 7.5 5.3 2.2
7 Martín Pérez 0.1778 0.1739 0.1756 5.7 3.8 1.9
8 Zac Gallen 0.2425 0.2522 0.2818 5.8 3.9 1.9
9 Kyle Freeland 0.1718 0.1692 0.1513 12.2 10.4 1.8
10 Dylan Cease 0.2399 0.2370 0.1725 22.1 20.6 1.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Robbie Ray 0.3106 0.2829 0.2709 12.3 7.1 5.2
2 Framber Valdez 0.2371 0.2467 0.2639 5.0 0.3 4.7
3 Ross Stripling 0.2378 0.2165 0.1818 14.4 11.2 3.2
4 Julio Urías 0.2656 0.2447 0.2009 16.6 13.5 3.2
5 Brett Anderson 0.1261 0.1341 0.1584 4.6 1.6 3.0
6 Aaron Civale 0.1791 0.1813 0.2212 10.2 7.4 2.8
7 Adrian Houser 0.2256 0.2083 0.1789 13.8 11.2 2.6
8 Max Scherzer 0.3372 0.3219 0.3119 10.3 7.7 2.5
9 Sean Manaea 0.2200 0.2021 0.2027 5.9 3.5 2.5
10 Tyler Anderson 0.2340 0.2179 0.1577 22.3 19.9 2.4

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Randy Dobnak 0.6000
0.1378
(89.0)
0.1481
(66.7)
0.0833
(100.4)
0.1293
(90.6)
0.3333
(52.7)
Zack Greinke 0.2500
0.4501
(59.3)
0.3500
(59.6)
0.4474
(58.0)
0.4480
(58.9)
0.4545
(56.8)
Shane Bieber 0.6667
0.4365
(63.3)
0.2955
(75.1)
0.4298
(65.9)
0.4644
(54.8)
0.4167
(73.2)
Rick Porcello 0.0833
0.3325
(69.5)
0.3077
(89.5)
0.3423
(71.5)
0.3002
(61.2)
0.3636
(74.0)
Mike Minor 0.0833
0.3652
(71.4)
0.2391
(65.5)
0.3421
(65.4)
0.3575
(69.8)
0.4000
(76.5)
Zach Davies 0.5833
0.2592
(84.8)
0.2250
(66.2)
0.2396
(90.8)
0.2654
(82.8)
0.2727
(84.8)
Pablo López 0.5455
0.2994
(55.0)
0.1579
(64.6)
0.3039
(54.4)
0.2943
(56.0)
0.3000
(58.1)
Yu Darvish 0.6667
0.3299
(95.0)
0.1538
(117.1)
0.3158
(99.8)
0.3783
(80.4)
0.3000
(107.9)
Patrick Corbin 0.1818
0.3870
(65.5)
0.2683
(60.5)
0.4035
(69.8)
0.3932
(67.6)
0.3636
(54.6)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Gonzales 0.3518 0.6364 74.1
2 Framber Valdez 0.1867 0.4545 72.3
3 David Peterson 0.2505 0.6000 68.2
4 Alec Mills 0.1841 0.4545 63.9
5 Luke Weaver 0.3348 0.0833 63.4
6 Kyle Gibson 0.3508 0.1667 60.5
7 Kyle Freeland 0.3347 0.1538 60.2
8 Ryan Yarbrough 0.3287 0.0909 59.6
9 Jordan Lyles 0.2882 0.0833 59.0
10 Cristian Javier 0.1364 0.4167 56.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kris Bubic 0.3423 0.1000 80.1
2 JT Brubaker 0.3423 0.0909 75.8
3 Ryan Yarbrough 0.2778 0.0909 71.4
4 Kyle Gibson 0.2564 0.1667 62.7
5 Marco Gonzales 0.2955 0.6364 61.6
6 Max Fried 0.2500 0.6364 60.0
7 Dylan Bundy 0.2051 0.5455 59.2
8 Jordan Lyles 0.1860 0.0833 58.8
9 Kyle Freeland 0.2286 0.1538 58.7
10 Alec Mills 0.1200 0.4545 54.5

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Gonzales 0.2895 0.6364 92.0
2 Framber Valdez 0.1538 0.4545 82.3
3 Kyle Gibson 0.4035 0.1667 75.8
4 Jordan Lyles 0.3452 0.0833 73.6
5 David Peterson 0.2361 0.6000 71.5
6 Carlos Carrasco 0.4479 0.2500 59.6
7 Kris Bubic 0.3423 0.1000 57.1
8 Max Fried 0.3704 0.6364 56.2
9 Adrian Houser 0.2941 0.0833 55.5
10 Mike Fiers 0.3158 0.5455 55.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Gonzales 0.3105 0.6364 85.4
2 Framber Valdez 0.1832 0.4545 73.0
3 Alec Mills 0.1729 0.4545 66.5
4 Ryan Yarbrough 0.3551 0.0909 66.0
5 Cristian Javier 0.1072 0.4167 62.4
6 Kyle Gibson 0.3543 0.1667 61.8
7 Luke Weaver 0.3246 0.0833 61.1
8 Carlos Carrasco 0.4329 0.2500 56.2
9 Chris Bassitt 0.2309 0.4545 53.7
10 Kenta Maeda 0.3128 0.5455 53.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 David Peterson 0.2222 0.6000 76.7
2 Kyle Freeland 0.4000 0.1538 75.9
3 Luke Weaver 0.3750 0.0833 69.6
4 Alec Mills 0.2000 0.4545 63.3
5 Mike Fiers 0.3000 0.5455 62.2
6 Kenta Maeda 0.3077 0.5455 58.1
7 Framber Valdez 0.2500 0.4545 57.9
8 Ryan Yarbrough 0.3333 0.0909 57.5
9 Kris Bubic 0.3423 0.1000 54.5
10 Jordan Lyles 0.2727 0.0833 51.3

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 JT Brubaker 0.3423 0.1547 0.0909 75.8 16.6 59.3
2 Alex Young 0.2000 0.1303 0.1333 37.8 2.8 34.9
3 Kris Bubic 0.3423 0.2914 0.1000 80.1 46.3 33.8
4 Brady Singer 0.3423 0.3061 0.3333 33.5 2.7 30.8
5 Tyler Glasnow 0.1562 0.3832 0.4545 42.8 12.9 29.9
6 Dylan Cease 0.1429 0.3432 0.4167 39.6 14.4 25.2
7 Yu Darvish 0.1538 0.3299 0.6667 117.1 95.0 22.1
8 Dylan Bundy 0.2051 0.3842 0.5455 59.2 38.5 20.7
9 Rick Porcello 0.3077 0.3325 0.0833 89.5 69.5 20.0
10 Trevor Williams 0.2368 0.2638 0.1818 43.7 24.9 18.8

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ross Stripling 0.3438 0.2205 0.2500 23.9 2.7 21.2
2 Marco Gonzales 0.2895 0.3518 0.6364 92.0 74.1 17.8
3 Lance Lynn 0.3509 0.3957 0.4615 32.9 16.8 16.1
4 Kyle Gibson 0.4035 0.3508 0.1667 75.8 60.5 15.2
5 Jordan Lyles 0.3452 0.2882 0.0833 73.6 59.0 14.6
6 Jesús Luzardo 0.3778 0.3199 0.2500 35.4 21.6 13.8
7 Erick Fedde 0.2500 0.1887 0.1818 18.4 5.3 13.2
8 Dustin May 0.1375 0.1900 0.2500 21.9 9.6 12.2
9 Sonny Gray 0.2895 0.3394 0.4545 35.3 23.1 12.2
10 Zach Eflin 0.2549 0.2998 0.3636 23.0 11.5 11.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Bassitt 0.2309 0.2837 0.4545 53.7 40.1 13.6
2 Antonio Senzatela 0.2596 0.3004 0.4167 42.2 30.1 12.1
3 Martín Pérez 0.3826 0.3376 0.2500 39.4 27.4 12.0
4 Tyler Mahle 0.0876 0.1459 0.2000 19.0 7.5 11.6
5 Marco Gonzales 0.3105 0.3518 0.6364 85.4 74.1 11.2
6 Jesús Luzardo 0.3612 0.3199 0.2500 32.0 21.6 10.4
7 Tyler Anderson 0.1954 0.2345 0.3077 24.6 14.6 10.0
8 Trevor Bauer 0.3515 0.3880 0.4545 23.7 13.8 9.9
9 Garrett Richards 0.3379 0.2932 0.1429 45.3 35.6 9.7
10 Spencer Turnbull 0.2305 0.2695 0.3636 27.9 18.7 9.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Julio Urías 0.0714 0.1892 0.2727 44.3 14.9 29.4
2 Tyler Mahle 0.3636 0.1459 0.2000 33.6 7.5 26.1
3 Alex Young 0.2500 0.1303 0.1333 24.5 2.8 21.7
4 JT Brubaker 0.2500 0.1547 0.0909 33.3 16.6 16.8
5 Kyle Freeland 0.4000 0.3347 0.1538 75.9 60.2 15.7
6 Ross Stripling 0.1667 0.2205 0.2500 17.6 2.7 14.8
7 Dylan Cease 0.3000 0.3432 0.4167 28.9 14.4 14.5
8 Yu Darvish 0.3000 0.3299 0.6667 107.9 95.0 12.9
9 Jon Lester 0.4000 0.3400 0.2500 40.7 28.3 12.3
10 Aaron Nola 0.3333 0.3623 0.4167 23.1 10.8 12.3

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Aaron Civale 0.0000
0.0000
(0.2)
0.0606
(9.8)
0.0000
(0.2)
0.0000
(0.2)
0.0000
(0.2)
Ross Stripling 0.0833
0.0000
(18.2)
0.0256
(19.1)
0.0000
(18.2)
0.0000
(18.2)
0.0000
(18.2)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corbin Burnes 0.0101 0.0000 2.6
2 Lance Lynn 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
3 Germán Márquez 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
4 Kyle Hendricks 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
5 Kyle Freeland 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
6 Antonio Senzatela 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
7 Kyle Gibson 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
8 Shane Bieber 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
9 Yu Darvish 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
10 Max Scherzer 0.0000 0.0000 0.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Julio Urías 0.0833 0.0000 12.1
2 Kenta Maeda 0.0698 0.0000 10.1
3 Randy Dobnak 0.0741 0.0000 9.0
4 Jesús Luzardo 0.0625 0.0000 8.3
5 Logan Webb 0.0606 0.0000 7.7
6 Zac Gallen 0.0556 0.0000 7.7
7 Brady Singer 0.0008 0.0000 7.5
8 Dylan Cease 0.0571 0.0000 7.1
9 Kris Bubic 0.0008 0.0000 6.3
10 Cristian Javier 0.0008 0.0000 6.1

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Wainwright 0.0008 0.0000 0.4
2 Rick Porcello 0.0008 0.0000 0.4
3 Alec Mills 0.0008 0.0000 0.4
4 Kris Bubic 0.0008 0.0000 0.3
5 Tanner Roark 0.0008 0.0000 0.3
6 Cristian Javier 0.0008 0.0000 0.3
7 Garrett Richards 0.0008 0.0000 0.3
8 Lance Lynn 0.0000 0.0000 0.3
9 Germán Márquez 0.0000 0.0000 0.3
10 Kyle Hendricks 0.0000 0.0000 0.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance Lynn 0.0000 0.0000 0.3
2 Germán Márquez 0.0000 0.0000 0.3
3 Kyle Hendricks 0.0000 0.0000 0.3
4 Kyle Freeland 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
5 Antonio Senzatela 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
6 Kyle Gibson 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
7 Shane Bieber 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
8 Yu Darvish 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
9 Max Scherzer 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
10 Patrick Corbin 0.0000 0.0000 0.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corbin Burnes 0.0246 0.0000 6.0
2 Kris Bubic 0.0008 0.0000 0.3
3 Lance Lynn 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
4 Germán Márquez 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
5 Kyle Hendricks 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
6 Kyle Freeland 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
7 Antonio Senzatela 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
8 Kyle Gibson 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
9 Shane Bieber 0.0000 0.0000 0.2
10 Yu Darvish 0.0000 0.0000 0.2

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Julio Urías 0.0833 0.0000 0.0000 12.1 0.2 12.0
2 Kenta Maeda 0.0698 0.0000 0.0000 10.1 0.2 9.9
3 Aaron Civale 0.0606 0.0000 0.0000 9.8 0.2 9.6
4 Randy Dobnak 0.0741 0.0000 0.0000 9.0 0.1 8.8
5 Jesús Luzardo 0.0625 0.0000 0.0000 8.3 0.2 8.1
6 Logan Webb 0.0606 0.0000 0.0000 7.7 0.2 7.6
7 Zac Gallen 0.0556 0.0000 0.0000 7.7 0.2 7.5
8 Brady Singer 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 7.5 0.2 7.3
9 Dylan Cease 0.0571 0.0000 0.0000 7.1 0.2 6.9
10 Kris Bubic 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 6.3 0.2 6.1

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adam Wainwright 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.4 0.2 0.2
2 Rick Porcello 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.4 0.2 0.2
3 Alec Mills 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.4 0.2 0.2
4 Kris Bubic 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.3 0.2 0.2
5 Tanner Roark 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.3 0.2 0.2
6 Cristian Javier 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.3 0.1 0.2
7 Garrett Richards 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.3 0.1 0.2
8 Lance Lynn 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.3 0.2 0.0
9 Germán Márquez 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.3 0.2 0.0
10 Kyle Hendricks 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2 0.2 0.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lance Lynn 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.3 0.2 0.0
2 Germán Márquez 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.3 0.2 0.0
3 Kyle Hendricks 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.3 0.2 0.0
4 Aaron Civale 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2 0.2 0.0
5 Kyle Freeland 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2 0.2 0.0
6 Antonio Senzatela 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2 0.2 0.0
7 Kyle Gibson 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2 0.2 0.0
8 Shane Bieber 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2 0.2 0.0
9 Yu Darvish 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2 0.2 0.0
10 Max Scherzer 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2 0.2 0.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Corbin Burnes 0.0246 0.0101 0.0000 6.0 2.6 3.4
2 Kris Bubic 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.3 0.2 0.1
3 Ross Stripling 0.0000 0.0000 0.0833 18.2 18.2 0.0

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Antonio Senzatela 3.4364
5.5698
(530.4)
5.3444
(529.1)
5.6375
(552.4)
5.5709
(511.9)
5.5000
(546.7)
Matthew Boyd 6.7127
4.3531
(743.2)
4.5664
(625.5)
4.3349
(746.9)
4.3649
(756.9)
4.3594
(708.1)
Jordan Lyles 7.0231
5.0511
(626.4)
4.4634
(723.9)
4.9536
(651.1)
5.0023
(656.0)
5.2000
(554.0)
Robbie Ray 6.6194
4.2036
(702.5)
4.0627
(682.3)
4.3255
(670.7)
4.3015
(693.5)
3.9836
(726.7)
Shane Bieber 1.6293
3.6492
(486.2)
3.8140
(600.8)
3.6354
(483.5)
3.6871
(478.9)
3.6250
(515.6)
Corbin Burnes 2.1117
4.4137
(460.6)
5.3684
(742.8)
4.5000
(482.4)
4.6252
(496.4)
4.1143
(418.3)
Ross Stripling 5.8378
4.1130
(463.7)
3.6298
(521.4)
4.2429
(434.1)
4.1267
(474.4)
3.9706
(467.9)
Trevor Bauer 1.7260
4.0067
(527.6)
3.8747
(552.3)
4.1114
(558.0)
4.1768
(557.5)
3.7286
(484.6)
Frankie Montas 5.6038
3.9733
(477.2)
3.7358
(481.0)
4.1118
(443.2)
4.0524
(473.2)
3.7500
(500.8)
Luke Weaver 6.5769
4.4003
(604.0)
4.2023
(598.6)
4.4188
(598.6)
4.3970
(619.5)
4.3846
(578.6)
Dallas Keuchel 1.9895
4.3440
(506.7)
3.7832
(419.4)
4.3947
(521.0)
4.4384
(515.0)
4.2000
(501.4)
Chris Bassitt 2.2857
4.3860
(448.2)
3.9340
(388.0)
4.4549
(467.4)
4.3041
(410.6)
4.4000
(484.1)
Aníbal Sánchez 6.6226
5.1038
(465.9)
3.9416
(696.5)
5.2299
(433.9)
5.1891
(460.3)
4.8913
(487.8)
Yu Darvish 2.0132
3.9171
(451.7)
4.1126
(575.5)
4.0421
(490.3)
4.0766
(480.6)
3.6316
(403.6)
Tanner Roark 6.7972
4.7797
(528.1)
4.3972
(563.6)
3.9380
(712.2)
5.0597
(480.2)
4.5000
(562.5)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zach Davies 4.8793 2.7260 488.6
2 Austin Voth 4.6838 6.3423 459.3
3 Zach Plesac 4.8639 2.2771 454.0
4 Trevor Williams 4.9103 6.1807 416.6
5 Dinelson Lamet 3.9787 2.0870 402.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dinelson Lamet 4.2636 2.0870 538.0
2 Austin Voth 4.1176 6.3423 536.9
3 Trevor Williams 4.3316 6.1807 506.8
4 Mike Minor 3.8172 5.5588 454.9
5 Aaron Civale 3.5604 4.7432 419.5

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zach Davies 5.2347 2.7260 588.0
2 Rick Porcello 3.9380 5.6441 544.0
3 Zach Plesac 4.9773 2.2771 478.3
4 Austin Voth 4.6051 6.3423 476.0
5 Kyle Gibson 4.1568 5.3465 471.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zach Davies 5.2445 2.7260 572.2
2 Austin Voth 4.5425 6.3423 505.1
3 Zach Plesac 5.0358 2.2771 476.6
4 Kyle Gibson 4.2305 5.3465 470.0
5 Patrick Corbin 3.6764 4.6599 421.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Williams 4.3333 6.1807 530.9
2 Dinelson Lamet 4.1707 2.0870 487.1
3 Zach Plesac 4.5763 2.2771 420.2
4 Johnny Cueto 4.1538 5.4000 417.1
5 Rick Porcello 4.3548 5.6441 404.2

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Aaron Civale 3.5604 4.7093 4.7432 419.5 130.1 289.4
2 Corbin Burnes 5.3684 4.4137 2.1117 742.8 460.6 282.2
3 Aníbal Sánchez 3.9416 5.1038 6.6226 696.5 465.9 230.6
4 Framber Valdez 4.6392 3.8333 3.5660 262.5 33.3 229.2
5 Lucas Giolito 4.3772 3.8894 3.4839 210.7 6.5 204.2
6 Dylan Cease 5.0101 4.4330 4.0114 213.4 9.8 203.6
7 Alec Mills 3.8462 4.9204 4.4759 199.5 15.5 184.0
8 Kevin Gausman 4.6552 4.1366 3.6201 214.0 32.7 181.2
9 Pablo López 4.6725 4.1937 3.6105 216.1 48.1 168.0
10 Zack Greinke 3.2872 4.1202 4.0299 246.9 79.9 167.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alec Mills 3.9380 4.9204 4.4759 230.9 15.5 215.3
2 Tanner Roark 3.9380 4.7797 6.7972 712.2 528.1 184.1
3 Rick Porcello 3.9380 4.5927 5.6441 544.0 374.4 169.6
4 Kyle Gibson 4.1568 4.5153 5.3465 471.9 365.5 106.5
5 Lucas Giolito 4.2298 3.8894 3.4839 105.9 6.5 99.4
6 Zach Davies 5.2347 4.8793 2.7260 588.0 488.6 99.4
7 Framber Valdez 3.5357 3.8333 3.5660 117.7 33.3 84.3
8 Kyle Hendricks 4.5132 4.2565 2.8770 396.2 313.9 82.3
9 Zac Gallen 4.2797 4.0729 2.7500 335.1 273.5 61.6
10 Hyun Jin Ryu 4.2955 4.0794 2.6866 338.4 277.7 60.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kyle Gibson 4.2305 4.5153 5.3465 470.0 365.5 104.5
2 Lucas Giolito 4.2819 3.8894 3.4839 101.6 6.5 95.1
3 Framber Valdez 3.6016 3.8333 3.5660 118.0 33.3 84.7
4 Zach Davies 5.2445 4.8793 2.7260 572.2 488.6 83.6
5 Kyle Hendricks 4.5484 4.2565 2.8770 386.2 313.9 72.3
6 Martín Pérez 4.6285 4.7823 4.5000 83.0 26.4 56.6
7 Austin Voth 4.5425 4.6838 6.3423 505.1 459.3 45.8
8 JT Brubaker 4.5752 4.7354 4.9437 166.8 121.2 45.6
9 Andrew Heaney 3.9870 4.0740 4.4550 254.8 213.1 41.7
10 Zac Gallen 4.2774 4.0729 2.7500 314.9 273.5 41.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Giolito 3.1846 3.8894 3.4839 160.9 6.5 154.4
2 Framber Valdez 4.3953 3.8333 3.5660 164.1 33.3 130.8
3 Trevor Williams 4.3333 4.9103 6.1807 530.9 416.6 114.3
4 Lance Lynn 4.0781 3.9189 3.3214 171.0 73.8 97.2
5 Dinelson Lamet 4.1707 3.9787 2.0870 487.1 402.9 84.2
6 Cristian Javier 5.1081 4.8914 3.4785 293.2 220.4 72.8
7 Jon Lester 4.3393 4.7286 5.1639 287.3 216.8 70.5
8 Sean Manaea 3.8571 4.2870 4.5000 200.3 132.3 68.0
9 Adrian Houser 4.0000 4.3816 5.3036 384.5 321.0 63.5
10 Justus Sheffield 4.8214 4.6740 3.5783 228.2 165.4 62.8

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Aníbal Sánchez 1.6604
1.4110
(81.2)
1.2741
(105.2)
1.4207
(78.2)
1.4210
(81.5)
1.3913
(80.2)
Marco Gonzales 0.9474
1.3394
(85.9)
1.3046
(87.1)
1.3538
(90.6)
1.3310
(80.4)
1.3333
(90.8)
Robbie Ray 1.8968
1.3316
(162.4)
1.3103
(158.0)
1.3592
(154.8)
1.3404
(163.1)
1.2951
(165.7)
Kenta Maeda 0.7500
1.3175
(120.4)
1.1830
(96.7)
1.3293
(124.0)
1.3432
(123.9)
1.2800
(117.0)
Trevor Bauer 0.7945
1.2710
(109.7)
1.2371
(111.1)
1.2702
(110.2)
1.2856
(110.5)
1.2571
(112.4)
Antonio Senzatela 1.2136
1.5676
(82.4)
1.4964
(72.7)
1.6004
(93.2)
1.5833
(83.7)
1.5185
(74.7)
Dinelson Lamet 0.8551
1.2658
(87.8)
1.2873
(104.0)
1.2367
(80.7)
1.2458
(79.4)
1.3171
(107.8)
Max Scherzer 1.3812
1.0358
(126.1)
1.0322
(115.6)
1.0622
(117.5)
1.0612
(122.0)
0.9844
(134.3)
Patrick Corbin 1.5685
1.2429
(120.2)
1.2020
(120.8)
1.2475
(118.1)
1.2458
(122.8)
1.2353
(115.5)
Zach Plesac 0.7952
1.3717
(101.9)
1.2759
(90.2)
1.3674
(101.5)
1.3915
(103.6)
1.3559
(103.5)
Tanner Roark 1.7413
1.3526
(103.5)
1.3388
(98.0)
1.2320
(129.5)
1.3839
(99.2)
1.3214
(105.2)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cristian Javier 1.4920 0.9939 89.1
2 Matthew Boyd 1.2292 1.4751 88.8
3 Zach Davies 1.4423 1.0673 80.9
4 Luke Weaver 1.2990 1.5577 80.4
5 Adam Wainwright 1.4266 1.0508 77.0
6 Rick Porcello 1.2984 1.5085 76.2
7 Brad Keller 1.4530 1.0244 74.5
8 Ross Stripling 1.2479 1.5000 73.5
9 Frankie Montas 1.2830 1.5094 73.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corbin Burnes 1.4211 1.0223 85.4
2 Adam Wainwright 1.4059 1.0508 81.8
3 Framber Valdez 1.4433 1.1179 81.3
4 Shane Bieber 1.1723 0.8664 78.1
5 Trevor Williams 1.3168 1.5723 75.2
6 Lance Lynn 1.3107 1.0595 71.7
7 Ross Stripling 1.2203 1.5000 71.0
8 Dylan Bundy 1.3405 1.0355 70.0
9 Jordan Lyles 1.3415 1.5607 69.7

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zach Davies 1.4918 1.0673 95.3
2 Rick Porcello 1.2320 1.5085 92.9
3 Matthew Boyd 1.2265 1.4751 88.9
4 Brad Keller 1.4728 1.0244 79.4
5 Luke Weaver 1.3146 1.5577 76.1
6 Kyle Gibson 1.3583 1.5297 75.5
7 Kyle Hendricks 1.3085 0.9959 73.5
8 Kris Bubic 1.2320 1.4800 72.7
9 Frankie Montas 1.2859 1.5094 71.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zach Davies 1.4988 1.0673 93.3
2 Matthew Boyd 1.2270 1.4751 92.6
3 Luke Weaver 1.3001 1.5577 82.9
4 Kyle Gibson 1.3610 1.5297 78.9
5 Frankie Montas 1.2717 1.5094 78.5
6 Brad Keller 1.4794 1.0244 77.7
7 Adam Wainwright 1.4276 1.0508 74.2
8 Ross Stripling 1.2625 1.5000 72.8
9 Kyle Hendricks 1.3129 0.9959 70.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cristian Javier 1.5946 0.9939 116.1
2 Adam Wainwright 1.4255 1.0508 82.9
3 Matthew Boyd 1.2344 1.4751 81.0
4 Rick Porcello 1.2581 1.5085 80.6
5 Trevor Williams 1.3148 1.5723 79.6
6 Luke Weaver 1.2821 1.5577 78.8
7 Ross Stripling 1.2059 1.5000 77.5
8 Framber Valdez 1.4419 1.1179 76.5
9 Lance Lynn 1.3281 1.0595 72.3

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Bubic 1.2320 1.5540 1.4800 64.6 1.8 62.8
2 JT Brubaker 1.2320 1.4381 1.3732 37.8 3.5 34.3
3 Framber Valdez 1.4433 1.3742 1.1179 81.3 50.2 31.1
4 Dylan Bundy 1.3405 1.2692 1.0355 70.0 40.5 29.4
5 Lance Lynn 1.3107 1.2654 1.0595 71.7 42.6 29.0
6 Kevin Gausman 1.3629 1.2885 1.1061 52.4 24.6 27.8
7 Tyler Mahle 1.3863 1.2878 1.1538 38.1 10.5 27.6
8 Shane Bieber 1.1723 1.1267 0.8664 78.1 53.0 25.1
9 Martín Pérez 1.5154 1.4592 1.3387 35.0 10.1 24.9
10 Aníbal Sánchez 1.2741 1.4110 1.6604 105.2 81.2 24.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Bubic 1.2320 1.5540 1.4800 72.7 1.8 70.9
2 Tanner Roark 1.2320 1.3526 1.7413 129.5 103.5 26.0
3 Lucas Giolito 1.2642 1.2050 1.0369 42.6 24.8 17.8
4 Rick Porcello 1.2320 1.2984 1.5085 92.9 76.2 16.7
5 Kyle Hendricks 1.3085 1.2650 0.9959 73.5 59.0 14.5
6 Zach Davies 1.4918 1.4423 1.0673 95.3 80.9 14.4
7 Garrett Richards 1.2320 1.2930 1.2468 20.0 7.6 12.4
8 Kyle Gibson 1.3583 1.3987 1.5297 75.5 64.1 11.4
9 Clayton Kershaw 1.1791 1.1316 0.8400 57.4 46.3 11.1
10 Antonio Senzatela 1.6004 1.5676 1.2136 93.2 82.4 10.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Giolito 1.2791 1.2050 1.0369 42.8 24.8 18.0
2 Kyle Gibson 1.3610 1.3987 1.5297 78.9 64.1 14.8
3 Zach Davies 1.4988 1.4423 1.0673 93.3 80.9 12.4
4 Kyle Hendricks 1.3129 1.2650 0.9959 70.4 59.0 11.4
5 Clayton Kershaw 1.1865 1.1316 0.8400 55.9 46.3 9.6
6 Sonny Gray 1.3461 1.2936 1.2143 9.0 0.6 8.4
7 JT Brubaker 1.4111 1.4381 1.3732 11.4 3.5 7.9
8 Dallas Keuchel 1.4272 1.3852 1.0895 62.8 55.0 7.8
9 Andrew Heaney 1.1812 1.1954 1.2300 39.7 32.5 7.2
10 Ryan Yarbrough 1.3219 1.2812 1.1856 10.0 3.2 6.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Bubic 1.2320 1.5540 1.4800 68.0 1.8 66.2
2 Lance Lynn 1.3281 1.2654 1.0595 72.3 42.6 29.7
3 Cristian Javier 1.5946 1.4920 0.9939 116.1 89.1 27.0
4 Framber Valdez 1.4419 1.3742 1.1179 76.5 50.2 26.3
5 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.3889 1.3075 1.1636 37.9 14.1 23.8
6 Dinelson Lamet 1.3171 1.2658 0.8551 107.8 87.8 20.0
7 Martín Pérez 1.5094 1.4592 1.3387 29.5 10.1 19.4
8 Trevor Williams 1.3148 1.4042 1.5723 79.6 63.0 16.6
9 Zack Greinke 1.1045 1.1874 1.1343 24.1 7.9 16.2
10 Chris Bassitt 1.3556 1.3185 1.1587 36.2 20.3 15.8