2015 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2015, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alex Rodriguez 620
373
(246.8)
211
(409.0)
340
(280.5)
407
(213.0)
Delino DeShields 492
119
(372.6)
100
(392.0)
119
(372.6)
100
(392.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yasiel Puig 639 311 328.1
2 Matt Duffy 297 612 315.2
3 Addison Russell 220 523 302.9
4 Cameron Maybin 265 555 289.9
5 Giancarlo Stanton 605 318 286.9
6 Logan Forsythe 330 615 284.7
7 Billy Burns 310 555 245.0
8 Alex Gordon 653 422 230.8
9 Francisco Cervelli 282 510 228.4
10 Leonys Martin 537 310 227.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kris Bryant 100 650 550.0
2 Odúbel Herrera 100 537 437.0
3 Anthony Gose 100 535 435.0
4 Addison Russell 100 523 423.0
5 Mark Canha 100 485 385.0
6 Eddie Rosario 100 474 374.0
7 Matt Duffy 239 612 373.0
8 Jung Ho Kang 100 467 367.0
9 Jace Peterson 234 597 363.0
10 Joc Pederson 227 585 358.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Duffy 100 612 512.5
2 Addison Russell 33 523 489.8
3 Billy Burns 101 555 454.0
4 Carlos Correa 1 432 431.0
5 J.T. Realmuto 62 467 405.1
6 Eddie Rosario 80 474 394.4
7 Cameron Maybin 171 555 383.9
8 Chris Colabello 1 360 359.0
9 Clint Robinson 1 352 351.0
10 Kevin Pillar 290 628 337.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yasiel Puig 656 311 345.0
2 Francisco Cervelli 211 510 299.0
3 Maikel Franco 634 335 299.0
4 Giancarlo Stanton 614 318 296.0
5 AJ Pollock 399 673 274.0
6 Logan Forsythe 357 615 258.0
7 Randal Grichuk 593 350 243.0
8 Alex Gordon 663 422 241.0
9 José Ramírez 584 355 229.0
10 Anthony Rendon 583 355 228.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Bryant 100 504 650 550.0 146.2 403.8
2 Anthony Gose 100 479 535 435.0 55.6 379.4
3 Odúbel Herrera 100 441 537 437.0 95.8 341.2
4 Jung Ho Kang 100 437 467 367.0 30.1 336.9
5 Yasmany Tomás 100 411 426 326.0 14.6 311.4
6 Mookie Betts 318 618 654 336.0 36.5 299.5
7 Joc Pederson 227 516 585 358.0 69.5 288.5
8 Francisco Lindor 100 354 438 338.0 84.4 253.6
9 Mark Canha 100 352 485 385.0 132.8 252.2
10 Johnny Giavotella 227 468 502 275.0 33.9 241.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Preston Tucker 1 263 323 322.0 60.0 262.0
2 Ben Paulsen 20 277 354 334.1 76.6 257.6
3 Clint Robinson 1 257 352 351.0 95.0 256.0
4 Chris Colabello 1 256 360 359.0 103.5 255.5
5 Yolmer Sánchez 152 367 420 268.5 53.2 215.2
6 Carlos Correa 1 216 432 431.0 216.0 215.0
7 Ryan Goins 151 365 428 277.3 62.6 214.7
8 Billy Burns 101 310 555 454.0 245.0 209.0
9 J.T. Realmuto 62 268 467 405.1 198.6 206.5
10 Jeff Francoeur 66 273 343 276.5 70.2 206.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Randal Grichuk 593 424 350 243.0 73.6 169.4
2 Eugenio Suárez 567 396 398 169.0 1.8 167.2
3 Preston Tucker 525 263 323 202.0 60.0 142.0
4 Maikel Franco 634 494 335 299.0 158.9 140.1
5 Jimmy Paredes 531 373 384 147.0 11.1 135.9
6 Blake Swihart 461 277 309 152.0 32.2 119.8
7 Yolmer Sánchez 582 367 420 162.0 53.2 108.8
8 Ben Paulsen 535 277 354 181.0 76.6 104.4
9 Nick Ahmed 573 444 459 114.0 15.4 98.6
10 Cory Spangenberg 483 304 345 138.0 40.9 97.1

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alex Rodriguez 0.0857
0.0498
(19.9)
0.0493
(20.4)
0.0426
(24.2)
0.0570
(15.6)
Bryce Harper 0.1066
0.0649
(24.8)
0.0510
(34.0)
0.0616
(26.8)
0.0683
(22.8)
Manny Machado 0.0663
0.0380
(17.5)
0.0338
(20.6)
0.0388
(16.8)
0.0372
(18.3)
Justin Bour 0.0744
0.0359
(15.5)
0.0294
(18.5)
0.0384
(14.3)
0.0333
(16.8)
Kris Bryant 0.0712
0.0914
(15.6)
0.0416
(16.9)
0.0898
(14.6)
0.0932
(16.6)
J.D. Martinez 0.0903
0.0567
(19.6)
0.0489
(24.8)
0.0560
(19.9)
0.0574
(19.3)
Nelson Cruz 0.1030
0.0677
(20.7)
0.0700
(19.3)
0.0662
(21.5)
0.0692
(19.9)
Matt Carpenter 0.0656
0.0207
(27.3)
0.0223
(26.4)
0.0217
(26.5)
0.0197
(28.2)
Nolan Arenado 0.0812
0.0383
(26.1)
0.0354
(28.1)
0.0419
(23.5)
0.0346
(28.7)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.0192 0.0703 20.4
2 Brandon Moss 0.0896 0.0586 18.3
3 Chase Headley 0.0486 0.0245 17.9
4 Xander Bogaerts 0.0370 0.0135 17.9
5 Adam LaRoche 0.0723 0.0403 17.3
6 José Abreu 0.0843 0.0633 16.5
7 George Springer 0.0888 0.0563 16.3
8 Chris Davis 0.1000 0.1270 15.6
9 Luis Valbuena 0.0407 0.0755 15.3
10 Brandon Crawford 0.0228 0.0536 15.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joc Pederson 0.0325 0.0828 27.4
2 Miguel Sanó 0.0416 0.1111 22.1
3 Josh Donaldson 0.0509 0.0822 19.7
4 Delino DeShields 0.0416 0.0060 19.3
5 Chris Davis 0.0952 0.1270 18.9
6 Mike Trout 0.0676 0.0972 17.7
7 Mark Teixeira 0.0581 0.0994 17.4
8 Carlos González 0.0618 0.0935 17.1
9 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0883 0.1444 16.7
10 Khris Davis 0.0580 0.0989 16.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Xander Bogaerts 0.0412 0.0135 20.7
2 Carlos Correa 0.0185 0.0703 20.7
3 Chris Davis 0.0944 0.1270 19.2
4 José Abreu 0.0875 0.0633 18.8
5 Brandon Moss 0.0878 0.0586 17.4
6 Brandon Crawford 0.0215 0.0536 15.8
7 Luis Valbuena 0.0396 0.0755 15.8
8 Mike Trout 0.0708 0.0972 15.3
9 Mark Teixeira 0.0636 0.0994 14.7
10 Nick Markakis 0.0228 0.0057 14.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chase Headley 0.0559 0.0245 22.4
2 Adam LaRoche 0.0801 0.0403 21.0
3 Carlos Correa 0.0199 0.0703 20.3
4 George Springer 0.0970 0.0563 19.9
5 Delino DeShields 0.0416 0.0060 19.3
6 Brandon Moss 0.0915 0.0586 19.1
7 Luis Valbuena 0.0418 0.0755 14.9
8 Xander Bogaerts 0.0329 0.0135 14.9
9 Brandon Crawford 0.0242 0.0536 14.5
10 Josh Donaldson 0.0583 0.0822 14.5

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Joc Pederson 0.0325 0.0616 0.0828 27.4 10.2 17.1
2 Miguel Sanó 0.0416 0.0836 0.1111 22.1 7.9 14.1
3 Anthony Gose 0.0416 0.0183 0.0146 16.4 4.0 12.4
4 Billy Burns 0.0336 0.0041 0.0113 14.3 1.9 12.4
5 Jace Peterson 0.0305 0.0096 0.0144 11.8 0.6 11.2
6 Delino DeShields 0.0416 0.0212 0.0060 19.3 9.3 10.0
7 Francisco Cervelli 0.0354 0.0150 0.0193 10.0 0.3 9.7
8 Bryce Harper 0.0510 0.0649 0.1066 34.0 24.8 9.3
9 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0619 0.0735 0.0778 8.5 0.4 8.2
10 Cory Spangenberg 0.0349 0.0135 0.0167 7.5 0.2 7.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Marlon Byrd 0.0483 0.0594 0.0628 5.8 0.2 5.6
2 David Ortiz 0.0610 0.0684 0.0837 11.5 7.1 4.4
3 Alex Rodriguez 0.0426 0.0498 0.0857 24.2 19.9 4.3
4 Chris Davis 0.0944 0.1000 0.1270 19.2 15.6 3.6
5 Matt Kemp 0.0557 0.0506 0.0503 6.1 2.6 3.4
6 Xander Bogaerts 0.0412 0.0370 0.0135 20.7 17.9 2.8
7 José Abreu 0.0875 0.0843 0.0633 18.8 16.5 2.3
8 AJ Pollock 0.0226 0.0262 0.0378 7.6 5.3 2.3
9 Jorge Soler 0.0610 0.0556 0.0403 10.0 7.7 2.3
10 Mike Zunino 0.0667 0.0611 0.0482 8.7 6.4 2.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Delino DeShields 0.0416 0.0212 0.0060 19.3 9.3 9.9
2 Marlon Byrd 0.0705 0.0594 0.0628 6.0 0.2 5.9
3 Chase Headley 0.0559 0.0486 0.0245 22.4 17.9 4.5
4 Adam LaRoche 0.0801 0.0723 0.0403 21.0 17.3 3.6
5 George Springer 0.0970 0.0888 0.0563 19.9 16.3 3.6
6 Curtis Granderson 0.0638 0.0595 0.0600 4.9 2.2 2.7
7 Nolan Arenado 0.0346 0.0383 0.0812 28.7 26.1 2.6
8 Addison Russell 0.0438 0.0392 0.0395 4.1 1.8 2.2
9 Jay Bruce 0.0718 0.0683 0.0586 10.8 8.8 2.1
10 Brandon Guyer 0.0161 0.0204 0.0291 3.7 1.9 1.7

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Billy Hamilton 0.5327
0.4226
(55.7)
0.3471
(87.6)
0.4369
(47.9)
0.4091
(62.8)
AJ Pollock 0.2143
0.1447
(55.2)
0.1183
(69.5)
0.1264
(65.6)
0.1630
(44.3)
Ryan Braun 0.1633
0.0931
(47.0)
0.1016
(39.2)
0.0790
(53.3)
0.1069
(40.3)
Carlos González 0.0154
0.1082
(48.8)
0.1196
(58.9)
0.0880
(38.3)
0.1287
(60.0)
Manny Machado 0.1058
0.0420
(54.4)
0.0381
(53.5)
0.0444
(50.6)
0.0397
(57.6)
Delino DeShields 0.1880
0.2662
(32.3)
0.0598
(66.7)
0.2663
(33.8)
0.0598
(70.3)
Charlie Blackmon 0.2416
0.1381
(79.1)
0.1324
(79.5)
0.1375
(77.6)
0.1387
(80.2)
Jake Marisnick 0.3200
0.1695
(60.6)
0.1282
(74.1)
0.1668
(60.6)
0.1721
(60.5)
Jason Kipnis 0.0674
0.1424
(40.0)
0.1528
(50.0)
0.1294
(33.6)
0.1553
(46.9)
Brandon Phillips 0.1345
0.0387
(67.5)
0.0492
(57.7)
0.0329
(69.3)
0.0444
(65.2)
Anthony Rizzo 0.0854
0.0362
(43.3)
0.0397
(37.1)
0.0367
(40.9)
0.0357
(45.1)
Justin Upton 0.1242
0.0609
(47.0)
0.0658
(40.7)
0.0492
(52.4)
0.0723
(41.3)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joc Pederson 0.1338 0.0256 55.9
2 Jace Peterson 0.1721 0.0795 47.8
3 Jimmy Paredes 0.1748 0.0444 45.2
4 Billy Burns 0.2601 0.1699 43.1
5 Jason Heyward 0.0838 0.1369 40.0
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1746 0.1043 38.2
7 Addison Russell 0.1105 0.0342 33.4
8 Carlos Santana 0.0222 0.0585 32.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kevin Pillar 0.0492 0.1656 77.7
2 Anthony Gose 0.0598 0.1716 63.8
3 Kevin Kiermaier 0.0674 0.1607 53.8
4 Mike Trout 0.1421 0.0564 53.5
5 César Hernández 0.0405 0.1496 52.6
6 Michael A. Taylor 0.0577 0.1416 46.6
7 Alcides Escobar 0.1752 0.1043 42.1
8 Chase Headley 0.0647 0.0000 36.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joc Pederson 0.1284 0.0256 54.5
2 Jason Heyward 0.0807 0.1369 40.1
3 Jimmy Paredes 0.1475 0.0444 35.9
4 Cameron Maybin 0.0976 0.1523 35.7
5 Billy Burns 0.2434 0.1699 35.4
6 Addison Russell 0.1099 0.0342 34.6
7 Jace Peterson 0.1470 0.0795 34.6
8 José Reyes 0.1382 0.1935 33.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jace Peterson 0.1967 0.0795 61.3
2 Joc Pederson 0.1389 0.0256 57.7
3 Jimmy Paredes 0.2039 0.0444 55.6
4 Billy Burns 0.2754 0.1699 50.4
5 Alcides Escobar 0.1849 0.1043 43.7
6 Jason Heyward 0.0870 0.1369 39.4
7 Ben Revere 0.2426 0.1685 37.7
8 Nick Ahmed 0.1395 0.0430 37.6

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kevin Pillar 0.0492 0.1555 0.1656 77.7 14.2 63.5
2 Anthony Gose 0.0598 0.2222 0.1716 63.8 20.4 43.4
3 Delino DeShields 0.0598 0.2662 0.1880 66.7 32.3 34.3
4 Billy Hamilton 0.3471 0.4226 0.5327 87.6 55.7 31.9
5 César Hernández 0.0405 0.1089 0.1496 52.6 24.1 28.5
6 Kevin Kiermaier 0.0674 0.1203 0.1607 53.8 28.3 25.5
7 Mike Trout 0.1421 0.1117 0.0564 53.5 29.2 24.3
8 George Springer 0.0645 0.1210 0.1250 30.6 7.5 23.1
9 Michael A. Taylor 0.0577 0.2003 0.1416 46.6 23.6 23.0
10 Carlos Correa 0.0598 0.1152 0.1346 35.5 13.8 21.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cameron Maybin 0.0976 0.1261 0.1523 35.7 21.5 14.2
2 AJ Pollock 0.1264 0.1447 0.2143 65.6 55.2 10.4
3 Yasmany Tomás 0.0851 0.0615 0.0505 10.6 0.6 10.0
4 Chris Owings 0.1007 0.1189 0.1481 31.5 23.0 8.5
5 Matt Kemp 0.0600 0.0753 0.0828 21.0 13.0 8.0
6 George Springer 0.1004 0.1210 0.1250 15.4 7.5 8.0
7 Ryan Goins 0.0579 0.0454 0.0183 12.8 6.2 6.6
8 Curtis Granderson 0.0486 0.0609 0.0588 13.5 7.1 6.4
9 Will Venable 0.1233 0.1426 0.1569 16.8 10.4 6.4
10 Ryan Braun 0.0790 0.0931 0.1633 53.3 47.0 6.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Delino DeShields 0.0598 0.2662 0.1880 70.3 32.3 37.9
2 Ender Inciarte 0.2123 0.1851 0.1391 32.9 18.8 14.1
3 Jace Peterson 0.1967 0.1721 0.0795 61.3 47.8 13.5
4 Eddie Rosario 0.0842 0.1099 0.1222 25.0 11.8 13.2
5 Carlos González 0.1287 0.1082 0.0154 60.0 48.8 11.2
6 Yasmany Tomás 0.0377 0.0615 0.0505 11.7 0.6 11.0
7 Ian Desmond 0.1644 0.1451 0.0956 34.7 23.7 11.0
8 Jimmy Paredes 0.2039 0.1748 0.0444 55.6 45.2 10.4
9 Michael A. Taylor 0.2212 0.2003 0.1416 33.2 23.6 9.6
10 Billy Burns 0.2754 0.2601 0.1699 50.4 43.1 7.3

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Bryce Harper 0.1804
0.1326
(29.1)
0.1317
(30.3)
0.1320
(26.6)
0.1332
(31.6)
Lorenzo Cain 0.1672
0.1082
(33.6)
0.1131
(31.3)
0.1069
(31.7)
0.1094
(35.5)
Josh Donaldson 0.1716
0.1303
(27.0)
0.1291
(28.6)
0.1312
(23.2)
0.1293
(30.8)
Michael Bourn 0.0809
0.1184
(19.7)
0.1253
(22.5)
0.1132
(19.3)
0.1235
(20.0)
Delino DeShields 0.1687
0.0987
(32.8)
0.1179
(23.9)
0.0987
(30.6)
0.1179
(25.5)
DJ LeMahieu 0.1371
0.0941
(24.5)
0.1040
(19.1)
0.0923
(23.0)
0.0960
(26.1)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 AJ Pollock 0.1237 0.1649 25.4
2 Brandon Moss 0.1273 0.0894 21.7
3 Yadier Molina 0.1002 0.0642 20.9
4 Nick Castellanos 0.1022 0.0706 20.8
5 Victor Martinez 0.1197 0.0804 20.7
6 Nolan Arenado 0.1119 0.1459 20.3
7 Pablo Sandoval 0.1218 0.0851 20.2
8 Danny Valencia 0.0996 0.1561 20.1
9 Adam LaRoche 0.1220 0.0847 19.7
10 Melky Cabrera 0.1274 0.1025 19.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Martinez 0.0992 0.1416 26.3
2 Yadier Molina 0.1104 0.0642 25.7
3 AJ Pollock 0.1269 0.1649 24.0
4 Kole Calhoun 0.1457 0.1137 23.6
5 Danny Valencia 0.0924 0.1561 23.2
6 Brandon Moss 0.1306 0.0894 22.9
7 Russell Martin 0.1029 0.1499 22.6
8 Eric Hosmer 0.1107 0.1469 22.6
9 Nolan Arenado 0.1102 0.1459 22.2
10 Chris Colabello 0.0892 0.1528 22.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 AJ Pollock 0.1046 0.1649 35.4
2 Victor Martinez 0.1299 0.0804 27.8
3 Nick Castellanos 0.1061 0.0706 25.8
4 Brandon Moss 0.1284 0.0894 24.6
5 Yadier Molina 0.1021 0.0642 24.2
6 Pablo Sandoval 0.1245 0.0851 23.8
7 Grégor Blanco 0.0880 0.1586 23.4
8 Adam LaRoche 0.1206 0.0847 21.1
9 Matt Duffy 0.0848 0.1258 20.3
10 Gerardo Parra 0.1001 0.1409 19.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nolan Arenado 0.1039 0.1459 28.6
2 Russell Martin 0.1038 0.1499 23.9
3 Danny Valencia 0.0960 0.1561 23.1
4 Kole Calhoun 0.1478 0.1137 22.7
5 J.D. Martinez 0.1082 0.1416 22.6
6 Yunel Escobar 0.0906 0.1269 22.1
7 Jedd Gyorko 0.1234 0.0742 22.0
8 Melky Cabrera 0.1355 0.1025 21.8
9 Ángel Pagán 0.1398 0.0998 21.5
10 Dexter Fowler 0.1179 0.1478 21.4

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 J.D. Martinez 0.0992 0.1147 0.1416 26.3 15.4 10.9
2 Michael Cuddyer 0.1347 0.1086 0.1078 11.9 1.7 10.2
3 James McCann 0.1137 0.0906 0.0753 17.3 7.9 9.4
4 Kyle Seager 0.1067 0.1190 0.1239 10.2 1.0 9.2
5 Austin Jackson 0.1349 0.1172 0.1063 16.3 7.5 8.8
6 Gregory Polanco 0.1390 0.1247 0.1273 9.1 0.5 8.6
7 Brian McCann 0.1028 0.1144 0.1271 11.8 5.0 6.8
8 Kendrys Morales 0.0952 0.1048 0.1268 18.7 11.8 6.8
9 Chris Colabello 0.0892 0.1070 0.1528 22.0 15.2 6.8
10 Chris Coghlan 0.0986 0.1104 0.1272 13.2 6.7 6.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Prince Fielder 0.1303 0.1175 0.1126 17.7 5.8 11.9
2 David Ortiz 0.1363 0.1231 0.1189 15.4 4.7 10.8
3 AJ Pollock 0.1046 0.1237 0.1649 35.4 25.4 9.9
4 Cameron Maybin 0.0947 0.1128 0.1171 8.1 0.5 7.6
5 Billy Butler 0.1112 0.1032 0.1048 8.5 1.0 7.4
6 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.1062 0.1219 0.1348 13.6 6.2 7.4
7 Victor Martinez 0.1299 0.1197 0.0804 27.8 20.7 7.1
8 Mike Napoli 0.1259 0.1165 0.0981 16.7 10.2 6.5
9 Gregory Polanco 0.1089 0.1247 0.1273 6.9 0.5 6.4
10 Brett Gardner 0.1180 0.1317 0.1433 11.5 5.4 6.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jace Peterson 0.1243 0.1013 0.0921 18.6 7.5 11.0
2 Kris Bryant 0.1634 0.1453 0.1338 18.5 9.7 8.8
3 Nolan Arenado 0.1039 0.1119 0.1459 28.6 20.3 8.3
4 Gregory Polanco 0.1405 0.1247 0.1273 7.9 0.5 7.4
5 J.D. Martinez 0.1082 0.1147 0.1416 22.6 15.4 7.2
6 Joc Pederson 0.1396 0.1229 0.1145 14.1 6.9 7.2
7 Jay Bruce 0.1415 0.1264 0.1109 19.1 12.3 6.9
8 Charlie Blackmon 0.1129 0.1182 0.1364 16.7 10.1 6.7
9 Cameron Maybin 0.1309 0.1128 0.1171 7.1 0.5 6.6
10 Wilmer Flores 0.1281 0.1110 0.1078 9.8 3.3 6.5

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Josh Donaldson 0.1730
0.1417
(21.1)
0.1324
(26.6)
0.1400
(20.3)
0.1435
(21.9)
Nolan Arenado 0.1955
0.1253
(45.6)
0.1142
(51.9)
0.1326
(38.9)
0.1180
(52.5)
Kendrys Morales 0.1659
0.1274
(23.6)
0.1190
(27.8)
0.1221
(25.1)
0.1328
(22.0)
Justin Bour 0.1637
0.1126
(22.1)
0.1107
(22.2)
0.1087
(22.6)
0.1166
(21.6)
Brandon Crawford 0.1497
0.1010
(26.5)
0.1019
(25.0)
0.0892
(31.5)
0.1128
(21.5)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.0935 0.1574 26.9
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.1397 0.0931 24.3
3 George Springer 0.1422 0.0909 23.9
4 Adam LaRoche 0.1384 0.0909 23.8
5 Marcus Semien 0.1125 0.0749 23.6
6 Mark Trumbo 0.1576 0.1174 22.8
7 Marcell Ozuna 0.1333 0.0891 22.7
8 Matt Carpenter 0.0909 0.1263 22.5
9 Matt Duffy 0.0902 0.1258 20.8
10 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0924 0.1256 20.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Gose 0.1132 0.0486 36.3
2 Bryce Harper 0.0994 0.1514 31.9
3 Justin Smoak 0.1000 0.1799 25.1
4 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0851 0.1256 24.3
5 Starling Marte 0.0879 0.1280 23.3
6 Kris Bryant 0.1132 0.1523 23.3
7 Adam LaRoche 0.1352 0.0909 23.0
8 Ian Desmond 0.1293 0.0967 23.0
9 David Peralta 0.1037 0.1509 22.7
10 Xander Bogaerts 0.0865 0.1239 22.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Correa 0.0826 0.1574 30.4
2 Matt Carpenter 0.0833 0.1263 25.7
3 Pablo Sandoval 0.1382 0.0931 25.0
4 Marcus Semien 0.1114 0.0749 24.6
5 Anthony Gose 0.0894 0.0486 24.2
6 Matt Duffy 0.0832 0.1258 23.4
7 Daniel Murphy 0.0897 0.1357 22.4
8 Mike Zunino 0.1248 0.0725 21.9
9 Brandon Moss 0.1474 0.1103 21.8
10 Ryan Zimmerman 0.1272 0.1872 21.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mark Trumbo 0.1780 0.1174 32.3
2 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0821 0.1256 29.2
3 Adam LaRoche 0.1498 0.0909 27.8
4 Bryce Harper 0.1107 0.1514 27.5
5 George Springer 0.1501 0.0909 26.1
6 Gregory Polanco 0.1193 0.0798 24.9
7 Xander Bogaerts 0.0873 0.1239 24.8
8 Marcell Ozuna 0.1402 0.0891 24.6
9 Pablo Sandoval 0.1412 0.0931 23.6
10 Carlos Correa 0.1044 0.1574 23.5

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.1132 0.0735 0.0764 21.6 0.7 20.9
2 Anthony Gose 0.1132 0.0830 0.0486 36.3 19.2 17.1
3 Kris Bryant 0.1132 0.1618 0.1523 23.3 7.2 16.1
4 Bryce Harper 0.0994 0.1230 0.1514 31.9 17.5 14.4
5 Delino DeShields 0.1132 0.0873 0.0752 20.3 6.7 13.6
6 Billy Burns 0.1014 0.0684 0.0757 16.1 3.1 13.0
7 J.T. Realmuto 0.1267 0.0970 0.1006 13.7 1.0 12.7
8 J.D. Martinez 0.1329 0.1534 0.1553 12.5 0.2 12.3
9 Anthony Rizzo 0.1210 0.1451 0.1441 13.9 1.8 12.1
10 Michael Cuddyer 0.1433 0.1169 0.1005 18.8 7.3 11.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ryan Howard 0.1178 0.1447 0.1531 15.5 3.4 12.1
2 J.D. Martinez 0.1360 0.1534 0.1553 9.7 0.2 9.6
3 Mark Teixeira 0.1273 0.1499 0.1710 18.1 9.0 9.1
4 Brandon Phillips 0.0946 0.1106 0.1124 8.3 0.1 8.2
5 Alex Rodriguez 0.1085 0.1243 0.1387 16.0 8.0 8.0
6 José Abreu 0.1682 0.1597 0.1512 14.3 6.7 7.6
7 Chris Davis 0.1429 0.1569 0.1746 18.3 10.8 7.4
8 Marlon Byrd 0.1120 0.1368 0.1342 9.7 2.3 7.4
9 Adrian Beltré 0.1417 0.1330 0.1341 7.5 0.3 7.1
10 Yoenis Cespedes 0.1401 0.1522 0.1553 7.3 1.0 6.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Xander Bogaerts 0.0873 0.1032 0.1239 24.8 12.5 12.3
2 Marlon Byrd 0.1616 0.1368 0.1342 14.2 2.3 11.9
3 Delino DeShields 0.1132 0.0873 0.0752 18.0 6.7 11.3
4 Lucas Duda 0.1637 0.1420 0.1318 16.9 6.5 10.4
5 Adrián González 0.1729 0.1538 0.1400 20.3 9.9 10.4
6 Bryce Harper 0.1107 0.1230 0.1514 27.5 17.5 10.0
7 Mark Trumbo 0.1780 0.1576 0.1174 32.3 22.8 9.5
8 J.D. Martinez 0.1708 0.1534 0.1553 9.3 0.2 9.1
9 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0821 0.0924 0.1256 29.2 20.7 8.6
10 Manny Machado 0.0987 0.1069 0.1206 16.6 8.7 7.9

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Logan Forsythe 0.2815
0.2281
(29.1)
0.2394
(24.5)
0.2321
(25.3)
0.2240
(32.9)
Bryce Harper 0.3301
0.2794
(29.2)
0.2689
(38.5)
0.2787
(28.3)
0.2800
(30.2)
Chris Colabello 0.3213
0.2378
(27.8)
0.2305
(31.9)
0.2460
(24.2)
0.2298
(31.5)
Nelson Cruz 0.3017
0.2496
(30.1)
0.2654
(22.3)
0.2497
(28.7)
0.2496
(31.6)
Dee Strange-Gordon 0.3333
0.2686
(38.2)
0.2680
(41.2)
0.2557
(45.3)
0.2814
(31.3)
Victor Martinez 0.2455
0.3057
(32.2)
0.3072
(31.1)
0.3082
(34.4)
0.3033
(30.0)
Xander Bogaerts 0.3197
0.2612
(34.3)
0.2431
(48.7)
0.2596
(34.0)
0.2628
(34.7)
Jason Kipnis 0.3027
0.2544
(27.0)
0.2593
(26.3)
0.2525
(26.9)
0.2563
(27.2)
Torii Hunter 0.2399
0.2818
(27.2)
0.2926
(31.1)
0.2850
(30.2)
0.2787
(24.3)
Matt Duffy 0.2949
0.2478
(25.1)
0.2535
(24.0)
0.2478
(23.9)
0.2478
(26.4)
Omar Infante 0.2205
0.2712
(25.9)
0.2735
(25.2)
0.2737
(27.9)
0.2687
(23.8)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Burns 0.2309 0.2942 31.7
2 Francisco Lindor 0.2391 0.3128 29.6
3 AJ Pollock 0.2715 0.3153 25.3
4 Jayson Werth 0.2807 0.2205 25.1
5 Chris Owings 0.2636 0.2272 23.5
6 Pablo Sandoval 0.2850 0.2447 23.5
7 Ian Desmond 0.2633 0.2333 23.2
8 Yunel Escobar 0.2693 0.3140 22.8
9 Wilson Ramos 0.2682 0.2295 22.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Yunel Escobar 0.2549 0.3140 33.6
2 Mike Moustakas 0.2306 0.2842 31.5
3 Jayson Werth 0.2931 0.2205 28.3
4 AJ Pollock 0.2722 0.3153 27.4
5 Nick Hundley 0.2284 0.3005 27.2
6 Chase Utley 0.2693 0.2118 25.3
7 René Rivera 0.2530 0.1779 24.7
8 Ian Desmond 0.2690 0.2333 24.4
9 Adam LaRoche 0.2543 0.2075 23.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Burns 0.2281 0.2942 32.2
2 AJ Pollock 0.2604 0.3153 31.4
3 Francisco Lindor 0.2341 0.3128 30.9
4 Jayson Werth 0.2857 0.2205 27.7
5 Pablo Sandoval 0.2913 0.2447 27.6
6 Odúbel Herrera 0.2395 0.2970 26.5
7 Wilson Ramos 0.2693 0.2295 24.2
8 Ender Inciarte 0.2545 0.3034 22.9
9 Chase Utley 0.2564 0.2118 22.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Burns 0.2338 0.2942 31.4
2 Chris Owings 0.2755 0.2272 28.9
3 Francisco Lindor 0.2441 0.3128 28.4
4 Prince Fielder 0.2618 0.3051 27.2
5 Yunel Escobar 0.2676 0.3140 25.1
6 Jung Ho Kang 0.2301 0.2874 24.9
7 Ian Desmond 0.2679 0.2333 24.8
8 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2829 0.3210 23.7
9 Mike Moustakas 0.2418 0.2842 23.5

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Xander Bogaerts 0.2431 0.2612 0.3197 48.7 34.3 14.4
2 Nick Hundley 0.2284 0.2597 0.3005 27.2 13.5 13.7
3 Michael Cuddyer 0.2997 0.2624 0.2586 17.7 4.0 13.6
4 Eric Hosmer 0.2689 0.2853 0.2972 17.3 3.8 13.5
5 Kevin Pillar 0.2480 0.2651 0.2782 17.5 4.3 13.2
6 Addison Russell 0.2655 0.2399 0.2421 13.4 2.1 11.3
7 Mike Moustakas 0.2306 0.2448 0.2842 31.5 20.4 11.1
8 Yunel Escobar 0.2549 0.2693 0.3140 33.6 22.8 10.8
9 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2599 0.2707 0.2907 19.3 9.3 10.0
10 Bryce Harper 0.2689 0.2794 0.3301 38.5 29.2 9.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Odúbel Herrera 0.2395 0.2567 0.2970 26.5 18.3 8.1
2 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2557 0.2686 0.3333 45.3 38.2 7.1
3 AJ Pollock 0.2604 0.2715 0.3153 31.4 25.3 6.1
4 Ben Revere 0.2826 0.2930 0.3057 9.5 4.2 5.3
5 Carlos Correa 0.2194 0.2333 0.2791 22.3 17.1 5.2
6 Hanley Ramirez 0.2903 0.2808 0.2494 21.1 16.2 4.9
7 Justin Turner 0.2645 0.2771 0.2935 9.2 4.5 4.7
8 Ender Inciarte 0.2545 0.2646 0.3034 22.9 18.3 4.6
9 Steven Souza Jr. 0.2458 0.2371 0.2252 12.2 7.7 4.6
10 Pablo Sandoval 0.2913 0.2850 0.2447 27.6 23.5 4.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mookie Betts 0.2662 0.2759 0.2915 13.9 6.1 7.8
2 Prince Fielder 0.2618 0.2702 0.3051 27.2 19.9 7.3
3 Lucas Duda 0.2603 0.2473 0.2442 11.2 5.2 6.0
4 Jung Ho Kang 0.2301 0.2398 0.2874 24.9 19.4 5.5
5 Marlon Byrd 0.2710 0.2587 0.2470 15.2 9.7 5.5
6 Chris Owings 0.2755 0.2636 0.2272 28.9 23.5 5.4
7 Miguel Sanó 0.2177 0.2298 0.2688 15.8 11.0 4.8
8 Adam Lind 0.2910 0.2812 0.2769 10.4 6.0 4.4
9 Austin Jackson 0.2449 0.2507 0.2668 9.4 5.2 4.2
10 Jay Bruce 0.2550 0.2467 0.2259 21.5 17.5 4.0

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jordan Lyles 212
637
(425.0)
610
(398.0)
628
(415.9)
646
(434.1)
Brett Anderson 750
272
(478.2)
316
(434.0)
308
(442.4)
236
(514.1)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Holland 713 245 468.1
2 Justin Masterson 716 273 443.3
3 Chris Heston 304 746 442.4
4 Matt Cain 667 271 395.9
5 Daniel Norris 589 251 337.6
6 Michael Lorenzen 185 515 330.4
7 Justin Verlander 864 535 328.7
8 Tim Lincecum 659 333 326.3
9 Jarred Cosart 619 296 323.4
10 Mike Pelfrey 392 714 322.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Heston 169 746 577.0
2 Anthony DeSclafani 241 785 544.0
3 Carlos Rodón 100 607 507.0
4 Noah Syndergaard 100 603 503.0
5 Matt Harvey 320 755 435.0
6 Eduardo Rodriguez 100 522 422.0
7 Lance McCullers Jr. 100 520 420.0
8 Carlos Martinez 336 755 419.0
9 Michael Lorenzen 100 515 415.0
10 Williams Pérez 100 514 414.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Heston 4 746 741.7
2 Derek Holland 864 245 619.2
3 Chris Rusin 4 594 589.7
4 Lance McCullers Jr. 5 520 515.4
5 Michael Lorenzen 4 515 510.6
6 Williams Pérez 4 514 509.6
7 Carlos Rodón 100 607 507.0
8 Matt Cain 763 271 491.8
9 Trevor May 39 492 452.6
10 Justin Masterson 724 273 451.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Liam Hendriks 730 261 469.0
2 Justin Masterson 708 273 435.1
3 Kyle Lobstein 710 280 430.1
4 Edwin Jackson 651 228 423.0
5 Mike Pelfrey 301 714 413.1
6 Colby Lewis 451 861 410.0
7 Jerad Eickhoff 607 203 404.1
8 Mike Wright Jr. 605 204 400.9
9 Kyle Ryan 630 237 392.9
10 Aaron Brooks 635 250 385.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Rodón 100 507 607 507.0 99.9 407.1
2 Noah Syndergaard 100 478 603 503.0 124.8 378.2
3 Matt Harvey 320 683 755 435.0 72.3 362.7
4 Kendall Graveman 118 479 502 384.0 22.6 361.4
5 Anthony DeSclafani 241 588 785 544.0 196.8 347.2
6 Taylor Jungmann 100 415 501 401.0 85.8 315.2
7 Taijuan Walker 305 614 706 401.0 92.3 308.7
8 Jimmy Nelson 383 673 752 369.0 78.7 290.3
9 Mike Fiers 355 632 761 406.0 129.0 277.0
10 Kyle Hendricks 420 693 739 319.0 45.8 273.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Rodón 100 507 607 507.0 99.9 407.1
2 Chris Rusin 4 345 594 589.7 249.4 340.4
3 Chris Heston 4 304 746 741.7 442.4 299.3
4 Trevor May 39 332 492 452.6 159.8 292.8
5 Yohan Flande 4 299 296 291.6 3.2 288.4
6 Félix Doubront 4 285 328 323.7 43.4 280.3
7 Matt Wisler 39 315 478 438.7 163.4 275.3
8 Williams Pérez 4 275 514 509.6 238.9 270.8
9 Cody Anderson 4 271 365 360.6 93.8 266.8
10 Joe Ross 4 266 314 309.6 48.3 261.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Ureña 642 323 274 368.1 49.2 318.9
2 Justin Nicolino 650 345 301 348.9 43.8 305.1
3 Liam Hendriks 730 427 261 469.0 165.6 303.4
4 Jerad Eickhoff 607 306 203 404.1 102.8 301.3
5 Mike Wright Jr. 605 305 204 400.9 100.6 300.3
6 Aaron Brooks 635 338 250 385.0 88.4 296.6
7 Yohan Flande 594 299 296 298.0 3.2 294.8
8 Tyler Duffey 582 293 242 339.9 51.1 288.8
9 Sean Gilmartin 562 283 235 326.9 48.1 278.8
10 Luis Severino 515 260 255 259.9 4.6 255.3

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Kyle Hendricks 0.2260
0.1678
(38.4)
0.1762
(36.0)
0.1729
(36.2)
0.1627
(40.5)
Chris Archer 0.2903
0.2051
(68.5)
0.2069
(71.5)
0.2070
(68.8)
0.2033
(68.2)
Travis Wood 0.2816
0.1786
(40.5)
0.1861
(39.6)
0.1781
(41.7)
0.1791
(39.4)
Carlos Carrasco 0.2959
0.2236
(48.2)
0.2232
(52.3)
0.2287
(46.1)
0.2185
(50.3)
Jake Arrieta 0.2713
0.2264
(33.6)
0.2314
(33.8)
0.2335
(29.3)
0.2193
(37.9)
Alex Wood 0.1735
0.2233
(44.9)
0.2296
(45.7)
0.2265
(45.7)
0.2200
(44.0)
Jeff Samardzija 0.1791
0.2294
(51.4)
0.2284
(45.8)
0.2211
(41.9)
0.2376
(61.0)
Dallas Keuchel 0.2371
0.1740
(51.8)
0.1795
(51.6)
0.1748
(53.1)
0.1731
(50.6)
R.A. Dickey 0.1425
0.1825
(40.9)
0.1995
(51.3)
0.1832
(39.5)
0.1818
(42.2)
Phil Hughes 0.1444
0.2057
(44.0)
0.2061
(40.9)
0.1993
(38.4)
0.2120
(49.5)
Clayton Kershaw 0.3382
0.2855
(41.4)
0.2673
(62.2)
0.2886
(40.5)
0.2823
(42.2)
Chris Sale 0.3208
0.2749
(33.9)
0.2619
(49.4)
0.2835
(28.4)
0.2662
(39.4)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1877 0.1261 37.1
2 Jacob deGrom 0.2175 0.2730 37.0
3 Brett Anderson 0.1961 0.1547 35.8
4 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1783 0.2481 33.0
5 Jered Weaver 0.1761 0.1345 32.0
6 Matt Garza 0.1971 0.1562 31.5
7 Carlos Martinez 0.1967 0.2437 30.8
8 Wily Peralta 0.1815 0.1255 29.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Noah Syndergaard 0.2059 0.2753 41.2
2 Mark Buehrle 0.1582 0.1100 40.7
3 James Shields 0.2042 0.2512 39.5
4 Justin Nicolino 0.2059 0.0764 39.3
5 Jered Weaver 0.1911 0.1345 38.6
6 Max Scherzer 0.2677 0.3070 34.4
7 Dellin Betances 0.2917 0.3946 33.8
8 Williams Pérez 0.2059 0.1420 33.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1901 0.1261 37.2
2 Jacob deGrom 0.2201 0.2730 36.7
3 Lance McCullers Jr. 0.1769 0.2481 34.9
4 Carlos Martinez 0.1974 0.2437 31.9
5 Brett Anderson 0.1930 0.1547 31.8
6 Matt Garza 0.1982 0.1562 30.7
7 Wily Peralta 0.1849 0.1255 30.3
8 Mark Buehrle 0.1425 0.1100 30.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Anderson 0.1992 0.1547 39.8
2 Jered Weaver 0.1830 0.1345 38.1
3 Jacob deGrom 0.2149 0.2730 37.2
4 Odrisamer Despaigne 0.1853 0.1261 37.0
5 Yovani Gallardo 0.1892 0.1526 35.8
6 Matt Garza 0.1960 0.1562 32.2
7 Marco Estrada 0.2156 0.1807 31.5
8 Jonathon Niese 0.1788 0.1468 31.2

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Justin Nicolino 0.2059 0.1190 0.0764 39.3 14.7 24.6
2 Noah Syndergaard 0.2059 0.2414 0.2753 41.2 16.7 24.5
3 Cody Anderson 0.2059 0.1376 0.1205 31.5 8.5 23.0
4 Williams Pérez 0.2059 0.1575 0.1420 33.4 11.2 22.2
5 Alfredo Simon 0.1725 0.1315 0.1427 25.3 4.0 21.3
6 Michael Lorenzen 0.2059 0.1595 0.1612 23.6 2.4 21.2
7 Clayton Kershaw 0.2673 0.2855 0.3382 62.2 41.4 20.8
8 Max Scherzer 0.2677 0.2837 0.3070 34.4 15.4 19.0
9 Kendall Graveman 0.2034 0.1314 0.1534 25.6 7.9 17.7
10 Chris Rusin 0.1728 0.1384 0.1448 17.3 0.1 17.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matt Harvey 0.2677 0.2429 0.2490 17.2 0.1 17.1
2 Chris Rusin 0.1644 0.1384 0.1448 14.0 0.1 14.0
3 Mike Bolsinger 0.2365 0.2110 0.2103 14.1 3.2 10.9
4 Rubby De La Rosa 0.1969 0.1815 0.1854 12.6 1.9 10.6
5 Mike Foltynewicz 0.2271 0.2048 0.1930 15.2 7.2 8.0
6 Matt Shoemaker 0.1779 0.1894 0.2039 12.5 4.7 7.8
7 Mike Fiers 0.2428 0.2300 0.2365 7.8 0.2 7.6
8 Corey Kluber 0.2540 0.2600 0.2765 16.4 9.1 7.2
9 Justin Verlander 0.1886 0.1998 0.2112 9.9 2.7 7.2
10 Alfredo Simon 0.1250 0.1315 0.1427 11.2 4.0 7.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matt Harvey 0.2181 0.2429 0.2490 16.9 0.1 16.8
2 Chris Rusin 0.1124 0.1384 0.1448 14.2 0.1 14.1
3 Yovani Gallardo 0.1892 0.1771 0.1526 35.8 24.4 11.3
4 Adam Warren 0.2244 0.2064 0.1948 20.3 9.6 10.8
5 Jeff Samardzija 0.2376 0.2294 0.1791 61.0 51.4 9.5
6 CC Sabathia 0.2087 0.1985 0.1887 20.7 11.6 9.0
7 Jose Alvarez 0.1213 0.1531 0.2085 22.3 13.9 8.4
8 Mike Fiers 0.2171 0.2300 0.2365 8.3 0.2 8.1
9 Daniel Hudson 0.1774 0.2071 0.2448 17.1 9.1 7.9
10 Alex Colomé 0.1496 0.1683 0.1926 15.7 8.2 7.5

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Zack Greinke 0.5938
0.4257
(136.8)
0.3684
(133.1)
0.4181
(138.6)
0.4333
(145.5)
Collin McHugh 0.5938
0.3646
(191.9)
0.2162
(266.4)
0.3623
(189.2)
0.3667
(205.6)
Kyle Lohse 0.1351
0.3395
(139.8)
0.2973
(152.6)
0.3327
(138.9)
0.3462
(132.2)
Michael Wacha 0.5667
0.3447
(164.7)
0.1765
(246.0)
0.3717
(140.0)
0.3200
(197.3)
Jake Arrieta 0.6667
0.3446
(275.2)
0.2222
(328.0)
0.3825
(237.5)
0.3103
(320.6)
Dallas Keuchel 0.6061
0.3870
(194.3)
0.2250
(285.8)
0.3816
(194.3)
0.3929
(205.4)
Colby Lewis 0.5152
0.3332
(151.7)
0.2222
(194.2)
0.3331
(147.1)
0.3333
(167.1)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Estrada 0.1197 0.3824 186.2
2 Corey Kluber 0.4603 0.2812 163.7
3 Carlos Carrasco 0.2518 0.4667 152.7
4 Josh Tomlin 0.1177 0.7000 144.7
5 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1902 0.3750 141.6
6 Chad Bettis 0.1130 0.4000 141.2
7 Shelby Miller 0.3366 0.1818 138.1
8 Chris Heston 0.1987 0.3871 136.2
9 Gerrit Cole 0.4242 0.5938 136.2
10 Nathan Eovaldi 0.3104 0.5185 136.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Martinez 0.0682 0.4516 238.6
2 Nathan Eovaldi 0.1707 0.5185 188.7
3 Rubby De La Rosa 0.1471 0.4375 180.5
4 Carlos Carrasco 0.1538 0.4667 179.2
5 Gerrit Cole 0.3143 0.5938 176.5
6 Danny Salazar 0.1714 0.4667 172.5
7 Félix Hernández 0.3077 0.5806 169.8
8 Garrett Richards 0.2143 0.4688 161.8
9 Chris Heston 0.1111 0.3871 155.6
10 Matt Harvey 0.1905 0.4483 143.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Estrada 0.0852 0.3824 207.3
2 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1330 0.3750 182.6
3 Chris Heston 0.1384 0.3871 177.2
4 Gerrit Cole 0.3849 0.5938 164.4
5 Josh Tomlin 0.0816 0.7000 152.4
6 Corey Kluber 0.4375 0.2812 148.4
7 Chad Bettis 0.0951 0.4000 147.4
8 CC Sabathia 0.3698 0.2069 126.4
9 Andrew Cashner 0.3380 0.1935 125.2
10 Scott Kazmir 0.3771 0.2258 124.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Carrasco 0.1714 0.4667 224.5
2 Johnny Cueto 0.5556 0.3438 172.8
3 Corey Kluber 0.4839 0.2812 168.7
4 Nathan Eovaldi 0.2857 0.5185 164.9
5 Tanner Roark 0.4643 0.1000 164.4
6 Shelby Miller 0.3667 0.1818 148.4
7 Rubby De La Rosa 0.2759 0.4375 140.7
8 Chad Bettis 0.1389 0.4000 137.2
9 Félix Hernández 0.4375 0.5806 128.3
10 CC Sabathia 0.3889 0.2069 123.2

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Martinez 0.0682 0.3702 0.4516 238.6 57.1 181.5
2 Garrett Richards 0.2143 0.4114 0.4688 161.8 44.6 117.2
3 Danny Salazar 0.1714 0.3868 0.4667 172.5 56.1 116.4
4 Jimmy Nelson 0.1333 0.3405 0.3667 124.8 15.3 109.5
5 Tanner Roark 0.3000 0.1583 0.1000 124.9 29.9 94.9
6 Dallas Keuchel 0.2250 0.3870 0.6061 285.8 194.3 91.5
7 Taijuan Walker 0.1538 0.3446 0.3793 111.6 20.4 91.2
8 Matt Harvey 0.1905 0.3631 0.4483 143.8 59.9 83.8
9 Michael Wacha 0.1765 0.3447 0.5667 246.0 164.7 81.2
10 Ryan Madson 0.2703 0.0000 0.0147 80.1 2.2 77.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ryan Madson 0.2703 0.0000 0.0147 66.2 2.2 63.9
2 Michael Lorenzen 0.2787 0.1831 0.1481 73.0 21.0 52.0
3 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1330 0.1902 0.3750 182.6 141.6 41.0
4 Chris Heston 0.1384 0.1987 0.3871 177.2 136.2 41.0
5 Jerome Williams 0.2659 0.2009 0.1212 86.2 47.3 38.9
6 Ross Detwiler 0.3031 0.1823 0.0244 83.5 47.1 36.4
7 Madison Bumgarner 0.4145 0.4569 0.5625 118.9 86.8 32.1
8 Bartolo Colon 0.3348 0.3782 0.4242 63.8 32.8 31.0
9 Yordano Ventura 0.3672 0.4172 0.4643 59.5 28.6 30.9
10 Nate Karns 0.1398 0.1939 0.2593 67.2 37.0 30.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tanner Roark 0.4643 0.1583 0.1000 164.4 29.9 134.5
2 Carlos Carrasco 0.1714 0.2518 0.4667 224.5 152.7 71.8
3 Alex Colomé 0.3500 0.1683 0.1860 69.3 5.5 63.8
4 Johnny Cueto 0.5556 0.4727 0.3438 172.8 116.7 56.1
5 Roberto Osuna 0.2703 0.0464 0.0147 65.9 10.1 55.8
6 Scott Oberg 0.2703 0.0490 0.0469 54.7 2.0 52.6
7 Blake Treinen 0.3077 0.1107 0.0333 73.4 23.3 50.1
8 Andrew Chafin 0.2593 0.0792 0.0758 52.4 2.8 49.6
9 Vance Worley 0.3636 0.1876 0.1739 55.0 6.0 49.0
10 Liam Hendriks 0.2903 0.0881 0.0862 50.1 2.0 48.1

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Andrew Miller 0.6000
0.1705
(103.7)
0.0204
(146.4)
0.1831
(100.7)
0.0000
(139.9)
Jeurys Familia 0.5658
0.1045
(139.6)
0.0652
(158.9)
0.1036
(140.0)
0.0000
(164.7)
Francisco Rodríguez 0.6333
0.3366
(62.4)
0.3265
(69.6)
0.3477
(60.0)
0.0000
(130.1)
Shawn Tolleson 0.4795
0.0480
(126.2)
0.0244
(140.2)
0.0462
(126.8)
0.0000
(133.6)
Brad Ziegler 0.4545
0.0416
(106.5)
0.0577
(108.4)
0.0431
(106.2)
0.0000
(111.4)
Brad Boxberger 0.5942
0.1401
(120.9)
0.0488
(152.0)
0.1292
(123.9)
0.0000
(152.6)
AJ Ramos 0.4507
0.0185
(117.5)
0.0208
(123.4)
0.0182
(117.7)
0.0000
(116.2)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joaquín Benoit 0.5148 0.0299 125.2
2 Steve Cishek 0.5126 0.0678 110.0
3 Addison Reed 0.4925 0.0727 103.1
4 Dellin Betances 0.4109 0.1216 98.7
5 John Axford 0.0385 0.4167 92.5
6 Fernando Rodney 0.5192 0.2353 80.9
7 Roberto Osuna 0.0000 0.2941 77.5
8 Brett Cecil 0.3931 0.0794 68.8
9 Neftalí Feliz 0.5066 0.2083 64.9
10 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.0183 0.2453 58.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Rosenthal 0.2830 0.7059 125.8
2 Mark Melancon 0.2692 0.6538 117.2
3 Luke Gregerson 0.0556 0.4844 106.2
4 Cody Allen 0.1636 0.4857 96.5
5 Drew Storen 0.1020 0.5000 94.3
6 Santiago Casilla 0.2045 0.5672 92.3
7 David Robertson 0.2653 0.5667 79.2
8 Addison Reed 0.4167 0.0727 79.2
9 Steve Cishek 0.4000 0.0678 77.0
10 Roberto Osuna 0.0313 0.2941 75.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joaquín Benoit 0.5246 0.0299 127.6
2 Steve Cishek 0.5138 0.0678 110.3
3 Addison Reed 0.4954 0.0727 103.7
4 John Axford 0.0400 0.4167 92.2
5 Dellin Betances 0.3677 0.1216 84.3
6 Fernando Rodney 0.5169 0.2353 80.2
7 Roberto Osuna 0.0000 0.2941 77.6
8 Brett Cecil 0.4000 0.0794 70.3
9 Neftalí Feliz 0.5123 0.2083 66.1
10 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.0169 0.2453 58.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0000 0.7059 193.7
2 Mark Melancon 0.0000 0.6538 182.5
3 Huston Street 0.0000 0.6452 156.6
4 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.6393 145.4
5 Zack Britton 0.0000 0.5625 134.4
6 David Robertson 0.0000 0.5667 133.9
7 Aroldis Chapman 0.0000 0.5077 132.5
8 Santiago Casilla 0.0000 0.5672 130.8
9 Cody Allen 0.0000 0.4857 130.0
10 Kenley Jansen 0.0000 0.6667 127.1

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cody Allen 0.1636 0.4896 0.4857 96.5 3.4 93.1
2 Drew Storen 0.1020 0.4645 0.5000 94.3 6.3 88.0
3 Mark Melancon 0.2692 0.5352 0.6538 117.2 32.4 84.8
4 Trevor Rosenthal 0.2830 0.5398 0.7059 125.8 45.4 80.4
5 David Robertson 0.2653 0.5196 0.5667 79.2 9.8 69.4
6 Santiago Casilla 0.2045 0.4536 0.5672 92.3 25.8 66.5
7 Luke Gregerson 0.0556 0.3027 0.4844 106.2 41.5 64.7
8 Zack Britton 0.3250 0.5467 0.5625 64.0 2.0 62.0
9 Sergio Romo 0.3333 0.0911 0.0286 66.5 16.2 50.3
10 Andrew Miller 0.0204 0.1705 0.6000 146.4 103.7 42.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Rodón 0.0313 0.0000 0.0000 23.7 4.9 18.9
2 Raisel Iglesias 0.0313 0.0000 0.0000 15.4 3.2 12.3
3 Cody Allen 0.5062 0.4896 0.4857 8.1 3.4 4.7
4 Trevor Rosenthal 0.5262 0.5398 0.7059 49.4 45.4 4.0
5 Brad Boxberger 0.1292 0.1401 0.5942 123.9 120.9 3.0
6 Joaquín Benoit 0.5246 0.5148 0.0299 127.6 125.2 2.4
7 Zack Britton 0.5385 0.5467 0.5625 4.1 2.0 2.1
8 Tanner Roark 0.0065 0.0106 0.0250 5.0 3.0 2.0
9 Jonathan Broxton 0.1769 0.1694 0.0000 47.5 45.6 1.9
10 Sergio Romo 0.0985 0.0911 0.0286 17.9 16.2 1.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mark Melancon 0.0000 0.5352 0.6538 182.5 32.4 150.0
2 Trevor Rosenthal 0.0000 0.5398 0.7059 193.7 45.4 148.3
3 Zack Britton 0.0000 0.5467 0.5625 134.4 2.0 132.5
4 Cody Allen 0.0000 0.4896 0.4857 130.0 3.4 126.6
5 David Robertson 0.0000 0.5196 0.5667 133.9 9.8 124.1
6 Aroldis Chapman 0.0000 0.5328 0.5077 132.5 9.2 123.3
7 Huston Street 0.0000 0.4842 0.6452 156.6 39.0 117.6
8 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.5073 0.6393 145.4 29.6 115.7
9 Glen Perkins 0.0000 0.5087 0.5333 119.5 3.9 115.6
10 Santiago Casilla 0.0000 0.4536 0.5672 130.8 25.8 105.0

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Zack Greinke 1.6572
3.0446
(1122.8)
3.0457
(1274.9)
3.0256
(1134.4)
3.0638
(1115.4)
Jeremy Guthrie 5.9461
4.4078
(1058.3)
4.1461
(1112.9)
4.4238
(1025.9)
4.3916
(1087.6)
Matthew Boyd 7.5349
4.1400
(869.5)
3.8355
(901.0)
4.1382
(861.7)
3.8355
(953.3)
Kyle Kendrick 6.3232
4.8810
(942.0)
4.3840
(1141.9)
4.7756
(987.7)
4.9880
(892.4)
Kyle Lohse 5.8490
4.1063
(1195.8)
3.4516
(1511.9)
4.3017
(1044.1)
3.9130
(1342.9)
Bud Norris 6.7229
4.1317
(997.8)
3.9598
(995.0)
4.0549
(1014.4)
4.2109
(978.5)
Odrisamer Despaigne 5.8011
3.8956
(1072.6)
3.5570
(1159.8)
4.1383
(922.0)
3.6516
(1221.5)
Matt Garza 5.6300
3.9595
(1149.5)
3.7548
(1166.4)
4.0978
(1035.6)
3.8217
(1260.0)
Jake Arrieta 1.7686
3.6222
(1564.4)
3.6200
(1718.5)
3.5710
(1548.3)
3.6747
(1585.7)
Shane Greene 6.8845
4.4456
(930.4)
3.7576
(1120.1)
4.4149
(929.6)
4.4776
(928.9)
Jeff Samardzija 4.9626
3.9150
(1003.8)
3.5887
(1137.6)
3.9328
(957.8)
3.8969
(1045.8)
Dallas Keuchel 2.4828
3.7637
(1116.4)
3.8364
(1346.0)
3.7253
(1111.2)
3.8028
(1126.5)
Aníbal Sánchez 4.9873
3.5507
(984.7)
3.3500
(998.8)
3.6654
(887.4)
3.4342
(1080.1)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 5.6547 3.2228 1235.7
2 Drew Hutchison 4.1391 5.5676 985.4
3 Cody Anderson 5.6279 3.0547 918.9
4 Rick Porcello 3.7861 4.9186 875.6
5 David Buchanan 4.6038 6.9911 857.4
6 David Price 3.4497 2.4508 837.8
7 Ross Detwiler 4.6004 7.2514 779.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alfredo Simon 3.4034 5.0535 1251.5
2 David Buchanan 3.7934 6.9911 1078.9
3 Chris Tillman 3.5228 4.9942 998.5
4 John Lackey 3.7306 2.7661 975.2
5 Gerrit Cole 3.6225 2.5962 957.0
6 Ross Detwiler 3.8272 7.2514 950.5
7 David Hale 3.4433 6.0894 872.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 5.2569 3.2228 1045.9
2 Drew Hutchison 4.0565 5.5676 1018.5
3 Chris Rusin 3.8520 5.3316 892.4
4 Shelby Miller 4.0562 3.0244 867.8
5 Yovani Gallardo 4.5238 3.4177 859.1
6 David Buchanan 4.5718 6.9911 857.2
7 Jacob deGrom 3.6968 2.5445 848.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 6.0772 3.2228 1440.9
2 Cody Anderson 6.3391 3.0547 1168.3
3 David Price 3.6735 2.4508 1011.6
4 Drew Hutchison 4.2234 5.5676 948.0
5 Rick Porcello 3.7235 4.9186 942.4
6 Andrew Cashner 3.2739 4.3375 922.3
7 Marco Estrada 4.4366 3.1326 884.9

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alfredo Simon 3.4034 4.7723 5.0535 1251.5 276.1 975.5
2 David Hale 3.4433 5.2263 6.0894 872.7 317.8 554.8
3 Max Scherzer 3.2598 2.7990 2.7945 529.7 45.8 483.9
4 Miguel González 3.5179 4.4336 4.9147 791.8 333.8 458.0
5 Mike Bolsinger 4.4086 3.6295 3.6220 424.3 22.3 402.0
6 Michael Pineda 2.9730 3.7394 4.3693 850.0 457.8 392.2
7 Aroldis Chapman 2.8934 1.6714 1.6281 386.2 3.4 382.8
8 Danny Salazar 3.9480 3.6518 3.4541 467.7 107.7 360.0
9 Michael Lorenzen 3.8355 4.6925 5.4000 741.9 392.9 349.0
10 Danny Duffy 2.9797 3.7339 4.0829 575.9 237.9 338.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Rusin 3.8520 4.6283 5.3316 892.4 450.7 441.7
2 Shelby Miller 4.0562 3.8059 3.0244 867.8 624.4 243.4
3 Tyson Ross 3.5959 3.3355 3.2602 257.6 16.3 241.3
4 Mike Bolsinger 3.0825 3.6295 3.6220 262.0 22.3 239.6
5 Yovani Gallardo 4.5238 4.2987 3.4177 859.1 654.6 204.5
6 Adam Warren 4.1621 3.8131 3.2893 453.9 250.1 203.9
7 Keyvius Sampson 4.3236 5.1569 6.5350 560.8 359.8 200.9
8 Chris Archer 3.8661 3.6820 3.2264 535.5 347.3 188.3
9 Aaron Brooks 3.7883 4.5611 6.6687 725.8 540.8 185.0
10 Jacob deGrom 3.6968 3.5017 2.5445 848.3 677.2 171.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 James Shields 2.9897 3.2644 3.9143 867.0 606.7 260.3
2 Julio Teheran 3.2206 3.4920 4.0365 758.2 505.8 252.4
3 Garrett Richards 3.0176 3.2814 3.6463 616.0 363.6 252.4
4 Cody Anderson 6.3391 5.6279 3.0547 1168.3 918.9 249.4
5 Robbie Ray 5.0119 4.5332 3.5248 765.0 519.3 245.7
6 Jose Alvarez 5.3415 4.5139 3.4925 499.6 273.4 226.3
7 Andrew Cashner 3.2739 3.5270 4.3375 922.3 696.3 225.9
8 Mike Bolsinger 4.2177 3.6295 3.6220 238.7 22.3 216.4
9 Colby Lewis 5.0792 4.8071 4.6612 288.0 77.8 210.2
10 Kyle Ryan 6.0748 5.1696 4.4734 359.8 151.9 207.9

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Andrew Cashner 1.4404
1.2171
(195.1)
1.1810
(204.6)
1.2465
(163.5)
1.1878
(225.0)
David Buchanan 1.8482
1.3976
(165.0)
1.2893
(194.5)
1.3980
(161.3)
1.3973
(167.8)
Zack Greinke 0.8443
1.1211
(217.0)
1.1788
(286.1)
1.1199
(224.4)
1.1223
(211.4)
Gio Gonzalez 1.4231
1.2512
(145.0)
1.2184
(151.4)
1.2575
(132.7)
1.2449
(155.8)
Ross Detwiler 2.0229
1.4161
(180.3)
1.3443
(194.0)
1.4486
(168.1)
1.3834
(192.0)
Jacob deGrom 0.9791
1.2225
(168.2)
1.2073
(175.1)
1.2286
(180.3)
1.2163
(157.7)
Matt Garza 1.5673
1.2603
(217.4)
1.2195
(228.3)
1.2893
(191.4)
1.2314
(241.9)
Jake Arrieta 0.8646
1.2526
(320.6)
1.1650
(265.7)
1.2290
(308.8)
1.2767
(334.8)
Dallas Keuchel 1.0172
1.2904
(231.2)
1.3134
(274.3)
1.3078
(256.1)
1.2728
(208.0)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.6821 1.1857 248.0
2 Raisel Iglesias 1.5920 1.1434 169.6
3 James Shields 1.1617 1.3344 165.2
4 Kyle Lohse 1.2503 1.4639 155.0
5 Drew Hutchison 1.2704 1.4834 154.3
6 Roberto Osuna 1.4947 0.9187 150.8
7 Cody Anderson 1.5366 1.1058 150.2
8 Jeremy Guthrie 1.3456 1.5506 149.0
9 Sonny Gray 1.2778 1.0817 146.8
10 Chris Rusin 1.3941 1.6025 135.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Max Scherzer 1.1496 0.9184 212.3
2 Michael Lorenzen 1.2682 1.6588 198.6
3 Kyle Lohse 1.1734 1.4639 189.9
4 Alfredo Simon 1.2185 1.4385 176.3
5 Erasmo Ramírez 1.3772 1.1327 166.2
6 Eddie Butler 1.3714 1.8151 162.3
7 Chris Rusin 1.3522 1.6025 145.8
8 Colby Lewis 1.4004 1.2362 145.7
9 Williams Pérez 1.2682 1.5514 143.0
10 Danny Salazar 1.3079 1.1297 138.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.6007 1.1857 210.9
2 Chris Rusin 1.2829 1.6025 195.5
3 Sonny Gray 1.2978 1.0817 171.7
4 Drew Hutchison 1.2589 1.4834 155.3
5 Roberto Osuna 1.4947 0.9187 153.5
6 Jeremy Guthrie 1.3537 1.5506 137.0
7 CC Sabathia 1.2452 1.4223 135.4
8 Max Scherzer 1.0750 0.9184 132.4
9 Chris Archer 1.2947 1.1368 128.9
10 Erasmo Ramírez 1.3344 1.1327 128.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.7685 1.1857 288.9
2 James Shields 1.1285 1.3344 200.6
3 Kyle Lohse 1.2064 1.4639 189.4
4 Cody Anderson 1.6174 1.1058 176.8
5 Julio Teheran 1.1324 1.3056 169.1
6 Raisel Iglesias 1.5920 1.1434 166.4
7 Jeremy Guthrie 1.3373 1.5506 159.7
8 Drew Hutchison 1.2822 1.4834 151.7
9 Alex Wood 1.1978 1.3550 147.8
10 Jerome Williams 1.3873 1.6116 139.1

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alfredo Simon 1.2185 1.4261 1.4385 176.3 26.1 150.2
2 Max Scherzer 1.1496 1.0662 0.9184 212.3 115.4 96.9
3 Corey Kluber 1.1894 1.1066 1.0541 124.3 29.3 95.0
4 Danny Salazar 1.3079 1.2155 1.1297 138.6 50.2 88.4
5 Carlos Rodón 1.2682 1.5086 1.4426 102.9 28.3 74.6
6 Michael Lorenzen 1.2682 1.4305 1.6588 198.6 127.6 71.0
7 Zack Greinke 1.1788 1.1211 0.8443 286.1 217.0 69.2
8 Jon Lester 1.2263 1.1673 1.1220 90.5 21.5 69.1
9 Keyvius Sampson 1.2682 1.5566 1.7771 126.5 60.2 66.3
10 Michael Pineda 1.0811 1.2019 1.2261 93.6 29.1 64.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Carlos Rodón 1.2682 1.5086 1.4426 111.6 28.3 83.3
2 Chris Rusin 1.2829 1.3941 1.6025 195.5 135.3 60.2
3 Mike Bolsinger 1.1615 1.2756 1.3628 98.2 49.7 48.5
4 Shelby Miller 1.3153 1.2796 1.2468 50.8 11.5 39.3
5 Adam Warren 1.3336 1.2775 1.1650 85.0 49.7 35.3
6 Kyle Gibson 1.4151 1.3845 1.2894 95.5 62.1 33.4
7 Keyvius Sampson 1.4307 1.5566 1.7771 89.3 60.2 29.1
8 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.1680 1.1221 1.0643 48.6 19.8 28.8
9 R.A. Dickey 1.3001 1.2790 1.1944 85.1 57.6 27.5
10 Rubby De La Rosa 1.3266 1.3702 1.3569 32.1 5.0 27.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Bassitt 1.6632 1.5292 1.2558 137.2 91.7 45.5
2 Julio Teheran 1.1324 1.1747 1.3056 169.1 126.8 42.3
3 Lance McCullers Jr. 1.7685 1.6821 1.1857 288.9 248.0 40.8
4 Johnny Cueto 1.0811 1.1194 1.1321 67.8 27.8 40.0
5 Garrett Richards 1.1765 1.2119 1.2395 78.2 40.7 37.5
6 Robbie Ray 1.4956 1.4227 1.3316 74.5 39.1 35.4
7 James Shields 1.1285 1.1617 1.3344 200.6 165.2 35.4
8 Mike Pelfrey 1.5620 1.5050 1.4757 42.1 7.0 35.1
9 Kyle Lohse 1.2064 1.2503 1.4639 189.4 155.0 34.4
10 Scott Oberg 1.2682 1.3890 1.5257 73.8 40.4 33.3